© Project SOUND

Out of the Wilds and Into Your Garden

Gardening with California Native Plants in Western L.A. County Project SOUND – 2014 (our 10th year)

© Project SOUND

Climate Change: how climate change may affect

local gardens & what you can do

to prepare

C.M. Vadheim and T. Drake

CSUDH & Madrona Marsh Preserve

Madrona Marsh Preserve

March 1 & 4, 2014

2014: Bringing Nature Home - Lessons

from Gardening Traditions Worldwide

© Project SOUND

Today we’ll be visiting the gardens of Morocco

The ideal of the garden: Morocco style

Gardens have great importance in Morocco, as elsewhere in the Muslim world.

As an earthly version of the paradise described in the Quran, they are places of repose and reflection, but also somewhere heaven meets earth, where humans may encounter the divine.

In the hot areas of Morocco, they are cool oases where people can find rest and relief from the heat.

© Project SOUND

http://medomed.org/2012/the-jeb-of-rabat-in-springtime/

Al Andalus Garden in Rabat

The world climate is changing

© Project SOUND

First some definitions

Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere including temperature, rainfall and humidity. Everyday, weather events are recorded and predicted by meteorologists worldwide.

Climate in your place on the globe controls the weather where you live. Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years.

Climate modeling is the use of sophisticated computer-based models of the climate system to understand and predict its behavior.

© Project SOUND

Climate models help us understand how

climate works

Present: Effects of ocean temperature

on climate in CA – El Nino/ Southern Oscillation

What causes the jet stream to move

Past: Why was climate much wetter

after the last Ice Age?

Why do hot/cold or wet/dry variations occur?

Future: effects of global climate change on local and larger scale

© Project SOUND

Predicting the future: always difficult

Problems of scale: Dealing with large scale/global

causes & effects

Small scale – what individuals/ states, etc. are interested in

Many factors (and their interactions) are important

Don’t have long-term data on many of these factors

Some factors are unpredictable (volcanic eruptions)

We’ve never experienced changes anything like this

© Project SOUND

atmosphere/ocean/sea-ice general circulation

models (AOGCMs) Three-dimensional models of the

global atmosphere used in climate modeling

Couple atmospheric GCMs (AGCMs), oceanic GCMs (OGCMs) and increasingly additional data.

Based on laws of physics

Complex – require big computers & lots of time to run the simulations

Results are ‘checked/verified’ by comparing to past/present

Used to predict the effects of climate change

© Project SOUND

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Circulation_Model

Global atmospheric modeling began

in the mid-1950’s

Factors that go into currant AOGCM models

The hydrosphere: the oceans and other bodies of water

The cryosphere: including sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets

The atmosphere: composition and behavior

The biosphere: the amounts of animals and plants

The geosphere: tectonic variations such as volcanic eruptions and moving continents

© Project SOUND

http://scienceandtheworld.com/2013/04/29/wading-into-the-fire-episode-6-climate-modelling-is-a-

tough-gig/

Most planners currently use data from several

models (and several scenarios) to predict

When models concur, the result is more likely to be correct

Can compare models and try to understand the reason for the differences – increases our understanding of the processes

Allows to ‘bracket’ what the likely effects will be

© Project SOUND

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming

Cal-Adapt: California’s climate change

data/mapping source

Recommended in the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy report

Developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF)

Provides data and maps to planners, researchers and the public – Climate Tools are easy to use

© Project SOUND

http://cal-adapt.org/blog/2011/apr/13/global-climate-models/

The data used within the Cal-Adapt

visualization tools have been gathered from

California’s scientific community, and

represent the most current data available

wherever possible.

Cal-adapt climate tools are easy to use

© Project SOUND

Cal-Adapt uses information from 4 AOGCM

models

NCAR - National Center for Atmospheric Research Parallel Climate Model (PCM1)

CCSM - Community Climate System Model Version 3.0 (CCSM3) - National Science Foundation and the Department of Energy.

GFDL - NOAA Geophysical Fluids Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL)

CM2.1 CNRM - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Toulouse, France

© Project SOUND

Other commonly used models

Hadley Centre Model (HadCM3)

Canadian Model (CGCM4/CanCM4)

© Project SOUND

We’ll be considering several topics today

Predicted changes in temperature

Predicted changes in seasonality

Predicted changes in precipitation/water availability

Likely effects on wind

Likely effects on air quality

Other effects

© Project SOUND

The models and current data all agree:

the world is getting hotter

© Project SOUND http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/map-percentile-mntp/201401.gif

Hadley Model - average maximal yearly temperature

© Project SOUND

http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/tairmaxtc-h2.jsp

Hadley Model - average yearly minimum temperature

© Project SOUND http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/tairmintc-h2.jsp

Temperature predictions for CA: 2100

For CA as a whole, average summer temp. may increase 3.87-14.9°F; average winter temperatures between 3.87-7.2°F.

Temperature changes may be less significant in the southwest coastal region; increasing change going north and northeast across the state.

The relative increases of minimum temperatures may be the most dramatic (although not all models predict this increase)

© Project SOUND

Local effects: we’re protected by the

ocean, but we’ll be hotter

© Project SOUND

More ‘extreme heat’ (> 95° F)

days in the future

Cal-Adapt projects that urban and rural population centers throughout California will experience:

An average of 40 to 53 extreme heat days by 2050 [LA = 78]

An average of 40 to 99 days [LA = 110] by 2099

This compares to a historical average of 4 per year (average throughout the state).

The number of “extreme heat” days is projected to triple in downtown Los Angeles, and quadruple in the San Fernando and San Gabriel valleys

© Project SOUND http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/health.html

Extreme heat is not just annoying – it kills

Greater risk of death from dehydration, heat stroke/exhaustion, heart attack, stroke, and respiratory distress

By mid-century, extreme heat events in urban centers such as Los Angeles are projected to cause two to three times as many heat-related deaths as there are today.

That’s why the health departments are planning

© Project SOUND

http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_health/

The phenomenon of urban heat islands

Daytime temperatures in urban areas are on average 1-6° F higher than in rural areas, while nighttime temperatures can be as much as 22º F higher as the heat is gradually released from buildings and pavement (U.S. EPA, 2008).

© Project SOUND

http://heatisland.lbl.gov/

Urban heat islands: we need to decrease

the heat absorption

Are influenced by a city’s geographic location and by local weather patterns

The most intense urban heat island effects are often seen in neighborhoods where dense land use and impervious, paved surfaces predominate and trees, vegetation and parks are less common.

Bottom line: you (and your neighbors) need to create shade

© Project SOUND

Homeowner strategies to combat heat

Decrease the amount of heat absorbed by the home:

Attic/wall insulation; ‘cool’ windows

Replace old roof with ‘cool roof’ alternatives

Light colored walkways, mulch

Increase shade with hardscape

Increase shade with plants

© Project SOUND

If you need new roofing,

consider a ‘cool roof’?

Roofing materials that reflect more irradiation & emit heat better than conventional materials

Make most sense in southern U.S. – and particularly in CA; summer cooling far outweigh costs of winter heating

© Project SOUND

http://heatisland.lbl.gov/coolscience/cool-science-cool-roofs

http://www.lbl.gov/Science-Articles/Archive/sb/Aug-2004/3_coolroofs-2.html

Cool colors – save energy

The city of Los Angeles goes ‘cool’

Starting in 2014, thanks to an update of the Municipal Building Code, all new or refurbished buildings will be equipped with “cool roofs.”

Compared to traditional roofs, cool roofs can be as much as 50 degrees cooler on the roof surface, and can lower interior building temperatures by several degrees.

Los Angeles is the first major American city to pass a cool-roof ordinance.

© Project SOUND Owens Corning’s Duration Premium Cool series

http://bradyroofing.net/products/pitched-roof-materials/owens-corning/owens-corning-duration-premium-cool-series/

http://www.arcat.com/photos/eagleroo/141564.jpg

Garden strategies to combat heat: create

shade with hardscape

Benefits:

May add beauty/style to the garden

Long-lasting

Often low maintenance (compared to plants)

Require no water

Cost effective over time – particularly with increasing temperatures

© Project SOUND

http://www.jardinmajorelle.com/jardin/

People who live in hot places learned how

to create shade long ago: Morocco

Climate Mediterranean to extremely hot & dry

Gardening history Very long and complex

Arabic, Moorish, Berber, Roman and European influences

© Project SOUND

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Moroc

co_(orthographic_projection).svg

Some Moroccan ideas on shade

© Project SOUND

http://www.inspirebohemia.com/2010/09/streets-of-morocco.html http://www.freepik.com/free-photo/moroccan-architecture_663546.htm

Shady courtyards, tile/brick,

fountains: places to sit, work

and relax

Some ideas are directly applicable

© Project SOUND http://housetohome.media.ipcdigital.co.uk/96/000007ad7/7260_orh550w550/DCOR200.jpg

http://www.digsdigs.com/55-charming-morocco-style-patio-designs/

Note the use of colors: the blues

and turquoises suggest the cool

of water; the contrast with the

warm colors makes them seem

even cooler

Creative shade using hardscape

© Project SOUND

http://genosgarden.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html

http://genosgarden.blogspot.com/2010_08_01_archive.html

Think about how you use your

outdoors. Would you use your

garden more if it had a shady

porch, pergola, arbor?

Strategies for combating urban heat:

becoming more common

Solar panels placed on canopies over parking lots and other paved surfaces

Cool roofing & light-colored roofing

Passive management of home heat: roof deck insulation, wall insulation, high performance windows, and building orientation; patios to provide shade

Cool pavements

Shading of buildings, asphalt and other dark surfaces with trees

Management and restoration of parks and riparian zones in urban areas

© Project SOUND

Why are trees/other vegetation important?

Provide shade Tree shade: decrease temperatures

20 to 45ºF (11-25ºC) for walls and roofs; ~ 45ºF for parked cars

Vines: reductions of up to 36ºF (20ºC).

Provide evapotranspirational cooling Peak air temperatures in tree groves

are 9ºF (5ºC) cooler than over open terrain.

Suburban areas with mature trees are 4 to 6ºF (2 to 3ºC) cooler than new suburbs without trees.

Temperatures over grass sports fields are 2 to 4ºF (1 to 2ºC) cooler than over bordering areas.

© Project SOUND

Ouarzazate: The Skoura Palm Groves

Shaded in the protective canopy of tall palms, the Skoura Palm Groves have roads that you can follow from one Berber village to the next.

Gardens and agricultural areas beneath the palms are an important source of food in the region

During your walk, you will encounter several varieties of fruit and nut trees, vegetable gardens, and perhaps even some goats and sheep.

The palms are a source of cool, native shade in the hot, dry climate

© Project SOUND

http://www.gmtours.com/post/view/the-secret-gardens-of-morocco

http://berbernomadadventure.com/tours/berber-villages-and-

kasbahs-tour/

But trees/other vegetation have other benefits that

will help us cope with climate change

Filter out harmful UV rays

Allow for increased water absorption during rain/irrigation events

Act as windbreaks to decrease wind-associated drying

© Project SOUND

http://www.lawrenceofmorocco.com/sites/lawrenceofmorocco.com/files/imagecache/gallery_acco

mmodation/jardins_de_skoura_morocco_sahara_desert59.jpg

Benefits of trees/vegetation: more than heat

Reduced Energy Use In Sacramento study: cooling energy savings ranged between 7

and 47 percent and were greatest when trees were planted to the west and southwest of buildings

Reduced Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Leaves remove various pollutants from the air, referred to as

“dry deposition”

Shade trees reduce evaporative emissions from parked vehicles

Trees and vegetation remove and store carbon

Trees and vegetation reduce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by reducing energy demand.

Enhanced Stormwater Management and Water Quality.

Reduced Pavement Maintenance Costs

© Project SOUND

The human benefits of trees/vegetation

Improve human health and well-being

Reduce pollution/dust

Reduce noise levels

Decrease effects of extreme heat events

© Project SOUND http://www.classictravel.com/hotels/dar-ahlam

Provide habitat, food

Provide oxygen

‘calm and rest the soul’

http://jeffreygardens.blogspot.com/2011_01_01_archive.html

Garden strategies to combat heat: create

shade with trees, large shrubs & vines

Look closely at your existing trees

Are they healthy?

Young enough to survive your lifetime?

In the right places to provide needed shade?

Plant trees to S & W of buildings – and plant NOW

© Project SOUND

Garden strategies to combat heat: create

shade with trees, large shrubs & vines

Choose trees/large shrubs that provide ‘value added’; fruits; flowers; additional habitat value

Choose water-wise native species if possible

Use vines and trellises creatively; native vines have many good attributes in addition to their shade

© Project SOUND

What trees should I choose? The

answers are not all available

Need to weigh the effects of heat as well as those of intermittent drought & other factors

Need for empirical studies in the local setting – role of CSUDH, local gardens

© Project SOUND

Current favorites (based on last two years)

Citrus fruits: ‘Moro’ and other blood oranges; lemons,; grapefruits

Local natives: Mulefat - Baccharis salicifolia

Mountain mahagony – Cercocarpus spp.

Fremontodendron spp.

Toyon - Heteromeles arbutifolia

Boxthorns – Lyceum spp.

Catalina ironwood - Lyonothamnus floribundus

Laurel sumac - Malosma laurina

Catalina Island cherry - Prunus ilicifolia ssp. lyonii

Local Quercus (oaks)

Rhus (especially Lemonadeberry)

? Chaparral currant - Ribes malvaceum

Blue elderberry - Sambucus nigra ssp. cerulea

? Mission manzanita - Xylococcus bicolor

© Project SOUND

Other candidates (provide feedback)

Common garden trees/shrubs from other areas: Manzanitas – Arctostaphylos S. CA spp. (incl. cultivars)

Ceanothus – S. CA species

Summer holly - Comarostaphylis diversifolia

Tecate cypress - Hesperocyparis forbesii

Nevin’s barbarry - Mahonia nevinii Pinyon - Pinus monophylla

Coffeeberry/Redberry – Rhamnus/Frangula spp. & cultivars

Desert trees/large shrubs Fairy dusters – Calliandra spp

Desert willow - Chilopsis linearis

Desert lavender - Hyptis emoryi

Desert olive - Forestiera pubescens Mesquite – Prosopis spp.

Jojoba - Simmondsia chinensis

© Project SOUND http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesquite

Climate warming will affect local plants

© Project SOUND

Some potential effects of global warming

on productivity

productivity – up to a point and if (and only if) other requirements are met

Some plants will have flowering, pollination and seedset – including some important agricultural crops (rice; soybeans; ‘cool season’ plants)

Changes in thermoperiod (daily temperature change) may effect some plants Lower winter temperatures (and longer winters)

growth/productivity Temperature fluctuations may affect dormancy

Potential effects of global warming on

productivity, continued

Optimum growth temperature with CO2 drought tolerance (if plant can partially close stomata)

However, some plants will have growth at high temp/CO2

temperatures in some important agricultural areas may adversely affect world food supply

High temperatures + drought plant health – more vulnerable

fire vulnerability

growth of non-native weedy species

Effects of increased temperature on food

plants: effects not all the same

Food Plant Effects (shown by research)

Tomato Reduced fruit number (with only slight ↑ temp)

Lettuce Shortened growing season Increased incidence of tipburn Early bolting (flowering onset)

Stone fruits Decreased fruit size and quality (effects of both higher temps & decreased chill hours)

Citrus Reduced frost losses and increased yields in N. CA; possible decreases in S. CA)

Grapes Premature ripening and possible quality reduction Increased yield variability

© Project SOUND

Decreasing hours of chill: bad for agriculture

Probably won’t have as much effect on local gardens; most local native plants will not be affected

May affect those of us that grow ‘low chill’ fruits in home gardens [Anna apple; Fuji apple; Black Mission fig; Santa Rosa plum]

© Project SOUND

DECREASING CHILL HOURS,

2070-2099

Possible effects of increased temperatures

on pollinators: much to learn

Temperatures might exceed the tolerance level – ? more a problem in the tropics, but more research needed

Heat stress might make pollinators more vulnerable to disease

Decreased food due to loss of habitat plants

May be problematic for some specialist pollinators

Changes in seasonality may result in ‘mis-matches’ between flowering and pollinator activity

© Project SOUND

Effects of temperature on birds

Observed effects: 1965 to 2005

Birds moved north in winter Among 305 widespread North

American bird species, the average mid-December to early January center of abundance moved northward

The average species shifted northward by 35 miles during this period (see Figure 1). Trends in center of abundance are closely related to winter temperatures.

Birds moved further from the coast

Effects vary by species

© Project SOUND

Temperature extremes: cold/frosts

We’ll likely have years that are colder than usual – and experience frosts

Know how to deal with frosts:

Know which plants are sensitive – often the natives that are white-colored; tropicals

Heed the frost warnings; cover plants or be sure they are well hydrated before frost

Don’t cut back too quickly – let plants recover a few weeks

© Project SOUND

See Feb/2013 posting on the

subject – Mother Nature’s

Backyard Blog

Increasing temperatures are already

affecting the seasons (seasonal creep)

Spring is occurring earlier – but somewhat irregularly

Fall/Winter is arriving later

Increased length of growing season since 1900

© Project SOUND

Implications of the changing seasonal patterns

Many living things (plants & animals) use temperature cues: Hibernate

Migrate

Nesting; hatching

Enter winter dormancy; leaf out in spring

Flowering, fruiting

But not everything is changing together, leading to complex results

Mismatches: Pollinator/plant

Predator/prey

Seeds/dispersers

Breeding/food sources

© Project SOUND

Timing of the rainy season is also

changing in many places around the

world, leading to famines

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bird_migration

Implications of seasonal creep for our

gardens Planting:

Seeds: Fall planting is later

Spring planting earlier

Native plants: The timing of rains will be less predictable –

still, try to plant with rains

Dec-Feb best planting months

In dry years, best to plant with cool weather

Need to plan habitat to provide nectar/ pollen/food through the seasons

Plant native plants to attract a wide range of pollinators

Note & respect changing nesting seasons

© Project SOUND

Supplemental irrigation:

Winter/spring May be required for fall/winter planting

May be needed earlier: December if garden is dry

Watch for hot, windy, dry periods of 2+ weeks

Summer: Likely need to start earlier in some years; May

rather then June/July

Fall dormancy/little water period should still begin in mid-late August

‘Monsoonal’ irrigation (for Sonoran Desert and S. CA chaparral plants) should still be in mid-August (but need to watch changing weather patterns & plant responses)

© Project SOUND

Implications of seasonal creep for our

gardens

http://www.organicswgardening.com/article14.html

For more on irrigation go to

Mother Nature’s Backyard Blog

Precipitation change in the 20th century

Most of the U.S. saw increased precipitation

S. CA and Arizona saw significant decreases

© Project SOUND

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/precipitation.html

http://pauldouglasweather.blogspot.com/2014/01/winds-ease-travel-improves-another.html

Monitoring & predicting drought

http://www.drought.gov/drought/

© Project SOUND

Monitoring &

predicting drought

© Project SOUND

http://www.drought.gov/drought/

These have not been a good 2 years

But they are probably a good indicator of what dry periods will look like in the future

Precipitation a meager 10-30% of normal across coastal southern California and deficits of 4-12 inches in the past 2-year cycle

The Twitchell Reservoir, along the Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo County line, is at less than 1% capacity. Ranchers are reducing their herds due to the lack of water and food sources.

As of Feb. 18, the Sierra Nevada basin average snow water content ranged from 32 to 53% of normal.

© Project SOUND

Feb 2012-Jan 2014 – driest on record for

coastal CA from Santa Barbara Co. to San

Diego border (State Division 6)

The trend isn’t pretty

Consequences of drought:

Gardens less ‘pretty’

Crops damaged or fail altogether; livestock can’t survive – food prices rise

Less water from snowpack

Stored reserves of water (lakes; reservoirs) are low

Ground water depletion due increased pumping

© Project SOUND

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/weather-climate/drought.html

Decreasing Sierra snowpack: almost a

certainty

Temperature rise will lead to more precipitation falling as rain instead of snow

The snow that does fall will melt earlier, thus decreasing the spring snowpack in the Sierra Nevada by as much as 90 percent.

This would pose extreme challenges to water managers, hamper hydropower generation and eliminate snow recreation

© Project SOUND

http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_water/

Canadian Model: yearly precipitation

© Project SOUND http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/ppttc-c1.jsp

Hadley Model: yearly precipitation

© Project SOUND

http://eos-earthdata.sr.unh.edu/thumbnail_pages/ppttc-h2.jsp

Predicting precipitation: more difficult than

predicting temperature

Effects of clouds – not well integrated into current models

Difficult to integrate the effects of local conditions: topography; human-altered landscapes; etc.

Likely to be much more variability than for temperature

Need to look at all the models – the average is likely better than individual models

© Project SOUND

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle

Coherent year-to-year variations in sea- surface temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño: above-average sea-surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific (the warm phase of the ENSO cycle). Due to decreased normal up-welling of cold, deep water

La Niña: periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.

© Project SOUND

The fluctuations in ocean temperatures

during El Niño and La Niña are

accompanied by even larger-scale

fluctuations in air pressure known as

the Southern Oscillation. These are

what influence our rainfall.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensost

uff/ensofaq.shtml#ENSO

ENSO: effects on local weather

With El Nino, Oct-Mar tends to be wetter than usual in a swath extending from southern CA eastward across AZ, southern NV and UT, NM, and into TX.

There are more rainy days, and there is more rain per rainy day. El Nino winters can be two to three times wetter than La Nina winters in this region.

With La Nina, winters are always drier (ever since these events have been recorded (~ 70 years)

Is there a tie between ENSO and global climate change? No one knows

© Project SOUND

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/impacts.html#part5

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/USprank/nd.gif

Local effects of

ENSO

Driest years: Low amounts; equally

distributed between Nov-Dec & Jan-Mar

Medium years: Good rain early (Nov-Dec) –

almost equivalent to wet years

Severe deficit Jan-Mar

Wettest years: Good rain early (Nov-Dec)

High rain totals Jan-Mar – equivalent to N. and Central CA

© Project SOUND

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/ca_bar.html

Why predicting S. CA

precipitation is particularly

challenging

© Project SOUND

We have complex topography

Role of El Nino events is not well understood – and they have a role in our precipitation

Our area lies right between two areas on which most models agree:

an area of more precipitation to the north

an area of significantly less precipitation to the south

The best estimates for western L.A. County

(based on several models) suggest

The overall precipitation changes for our area won’t be dramatic, at least for the next 50 years;

Some models suggest slightly less precipitation

Some models suggest slightly more

More extreme year-to-year variability will likely become more common

© Project SOUND

Slight decrease?

Probably wisest to assume somewhat drier conditions – and less water available for home gardens

Likely year-to-year variability with increase Plan for drought years

Plan enough flexibility to deal with wet years: Plant choices

Water infiltration/ conservation

© Project SOUND http://cal-adapt.org/precip/decadal/

PV peninsula

Much of South Bay

Los Angeles average since 1877

thru 2012 (135 years): 14.98 inches

Consequences for our local gardens

Less irrigation water will be available for watering gardens in the future

We need to use garden water better – starting now!

We all need to participate in re-charging our aquifers/ground water; decrease water to the storm drains

Our gardens need to handle slightly more dry conditions, overall

Our gardens must handle the extremes: drought and abundance

© Project SOUND

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/impacts-adaptation/southwest.html

© Project SOUND

Be sure your garden is designed based on Water

Zone principles: grouping plants by water needs

http://www.taunton.com/finegardening/pages/g00101.asp

Pretty dry drought-tolerant plants

Regular water

‘Water-wise’ ; occasional summer water

What you can do now to become more

‘water-wise’

Read Mother Nature’s Garden series ‘Designing your New California Garden’ (2013-14) and ‘Harvesting Rain’ (2013)

Consider decreasing areas that receive regular water – limit regular water to only high priority plants [vegetable garden; prize rose bush; etc]

Consider increasing non-planted areas [seating/dining areas; utility areas]

As you replace older plants, consider replacements carefully: Do they have flexible/drought-tolerant needs?

Do they fit into the water zone plan?

What else do they provide: shade? food? habitat? other?

© Project SOUND

Why S. California plants may do better

than N. CA plants in dry (and wet) times

Are more drought tolerant (on the whole)

Are more water-flexible on the whole; have ‘grown up’ in a variable climate

Have a number of adaptations that make them suited for our variable climate:

Deep and/or net-like roots

Lifestyle: summer dormancy

Leaf characteristics: thick; waxy coat or leaf hairs; small leaf area; ability to close stomata during hot dry periods (or during the day)

© Project SOUND

Root characteristics: especially important

with CA native plants

Coastal sage scrub shrubs Primarily fibrous roots

Primarily shallow roots (< 3 ft)

Root:shoot ratio increases with water & nutrient stress

Chaparral shrubs Combination of deep and

shallower roots

Root growth in spring/ summer

Root:shoot ratio increases with water & nutrient stress

© Project SOUND

http://www.rmrs.nau.edu/watersheds/highlands/vegetation/chaparral/chpla

ntwater.html

Individual species have

characteristic root growth patterns

Root characteristics of some common CA

native shrubs

© Project SOUND

Root systems are coordinated to make use of available water, nutrients

Kummerow et al, 1977

Example from Coastal Sage Scrub

My recommendations for plant choices

At least 1 tree

Several evergreen shrubs as evergreen backdrop: S. CA chaparral species best Evergreen; provide height,

habitat, interest

Hardy: take drought, heat, water

Plants from Zone-spanner list: tolerances from water zone 1-2 to 2-3

Zone 1 to 1-2: many of the local natives – may have more tolerance to wet years than we think!

© Project SOUND

Perhaps the best choices are those with

wide tolerances: 1-2 to 2-3

Smallest shrubs/sub-shrubs Constancea (Eriophyllum)

nevinii

Epilobium canum

Eriodictyon crassifolium

Eriogonum cinereum

Eriogonum fasciculatum

Euphorbia misera

Grindelia camporum var. bracteosa

* Verbena lilacina

Trees/large shrubs Baccharis salicifolia

** Ceanothus ‘Ray Hartman’

* Cercis occidentalis

Salix exigua

Smaller shrubs * Amorpha fruticosa

** Arctostaphylos densiflora 'Howard McMinn‘

* Frangula/Rhamnus californica

Hazardia squarrosa

Isocoma menziesii

Rhus trilobata

Ribes aureum var. gracillimum

Ribes californicum var. hesperium

Ribes malvaceum (& cultivars)

© Project SOUND

Gardens : reflections of god in nature

‘One of the things that makes the gardens of Morocco so enchanting is the effort put into maintaining the natural elements of the land while displaying the gardens in an aesthetically-pleasing manner.

By creating a perfect balance between wildlife and the lush foliage of the land and the addition of man-made gardens and structures, the area is captured in a wondrous harmony of man-meets-earth.’

© Project SOUND

http://www.homelidia.com/beautiful-moroccan-garden-design-ideas/

http://medomed.org/2012/the-jeb-of-rabat-in-springtime/

S. CA gardeners need to

develop an appreciation for

normal variability in gardens

© Project SOUND

Early March – good rain year

Fall

Early March – dry year

Water in the garden: a hint of cool

Moroccan gardens – and those of other hot climates – emphasize the sight and sound of water

If you haven’t already, consider a water-wise water feature for your garden

© Project SOUND

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/large/49303992.jpg

Wind patterns: will they change?

© Project SOUND

Santa Ana winds may actually decrease

for a while

© Project SOUND

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2005publications/CEC-500-2005-204/CEC-500-2005-204-SF.PDF

But the likelihood of high wind events will likely increase

in the future

Planning for wind events: better than

dealing with the consequences

Keep trees as healthy as possible

Remove diseased or damaged trees; replace

Provide better infiltration around trees; promotes better roots

Annually prune dead or broken limbs; every 3-5 years thin

Plant trees less prone to wind damage

© Project SOUND

http://gotsoil.blogspot.com/2011/12/go-hug-tree.html

Plant the right tree Least resistant

Boxelder

Tree of Heaven Ailanthus altissima*

Carob, carrotwood and Brazilian peppertree

Silk floss tree - Albizia julibrissin

Eucalyptus

Ficus - Ficus benjamina

Jacaranda - Jacaranda mimosifolia

Elms, esp. Chinese elm, Siberian elm

Melaleuca - Melaleuca quinquenervia

Norfolk Island pine - Araucaria heterophylla

Coral tree

Chinese lantern

Firs & spruces

Poplar/cottonwood

CA Bay laurel -

Ornamental pear - Pyrus spp

Washingtonia palm

Avocado - Persea americana

Autralian pine - Casuarina

Most resistant

Ash

Sycamore

Crape myrtle - Lagerstroemia indica

Magnolia

Beech

White oaks (incl. native)

Magnolia

Sweetgum

Native live oaks

© Project SOUND

* Bolded trees also prone to summer branch drop

Plant a windbreak/hedgerow: many

benefits in addition to breaking the wind

Create shade

Provide an evergreen background for other plants

Provide seasonal color

Provide food – for you, for birds, for pollinators/other insects

Provide nesting places

Create their own functioning ecosystem – in a relatively small area

© Project SOUND

Hedgerow and windbreaks take time – start now

If you live in a fire-prone area: heed the

warnings

Get rid of Eucs & palm trees (and non fire resistant roof)

Plant a fire resistant zone

Consider your plant choices

The ‘fire season’ is longer than in the past – be prepared (many good resources on-line)

© Project SOUND

http://www.predictiveservices.nifc.gov/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf

Air quality: will it continue to improve in

western L.A. county?

© Project SOUND

Air quality monitoring: The Air Quality Index (AQI)

© Project SOUND

The EPA calculates the AQI for 5 major air pollutants regulated by the Clean Air Act

1. Ground-level Ozone (O3) 2. Particle Pollution, also known as particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) 3. Carbon Monoxide (CO) 4. Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and 5. Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2).

For each of these pollutants, EPA has established national air quality standards to protect

public health. Ground-level ozone and airborne particles pose the greatest threat to human

health.

The AQI focuses on health effects you may experience within a few hours or days after breathing polluted air.

Santa Ana winds & pollution in western

L.A. county

Wind patterns – Santa Anas (off-

shore flow) mean more air

pollution in our area

? Longer season for Santa Anas

Maybe 20% fewer Santa Ana

events as winter temps in desert

increase

But even past records suggest

more extremes

© Project SOUND http://www.achangeinthewind.com/2008/10/good-news-friday-global-warming-lessening-santa-

ana-wind-conditions.html

http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2011/12/01/santa-ana-

wind-season-may-be-stretched-by-climate-change/

Predicting future air quality: difficult

↑ emissions ??

Smoke from fires

? More stagnant air

? More particulates (due to decreased

precipitation)

Because warm, stagnant air tends to increase the formation of ozone, climate change is likely to increase levels of ground-level ozone in already-polluted areas of the United States and increase the number of days with poor air quality

© Project SOUND http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_health/

Elevated CO2 levels will increase growth

rates for many (C3) plants

Increases in photosynthesis for most C3 species due to elevated CO2

However, the direct outcome of increased photosynthetic rates is uncertain:

Other limitations: lack of water; increased heat; etc.

Plants may actually suffer nutrient deficiencies due to faster growth rates – effects those that eat the plants

© Project SOUND

Much still to learn –

particularly for CA native

plants

http://www.serc.si.edu/labs/co2/marsh.aspx

Ozone exposure & plants

Leads to: reduced plant growth and crop yields

hindered nitrogen fixation

compromised disease resistance

increased susceptibility to insect damage

Susceptibility to wide range of stressors

Decreased seed production

Threshold concentrations, generally between 50–70 parts per billion (ppb) for agricultural crops and 35 ppb for native vegetation

Levels in San Bernardino Natl. Forest already ~ 90 ppb

© Project SOUND http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2013/01/29/whispers-from-the-ghosting-trees/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2013/01/29/whispers-from-the-ghosting-trees/

http://www.yosemite.org/naturenotes/AirQuality2.htm

Effects of smog on Ponderosa Pine

http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/pubs/Core_Slides/effects.htm

Ozone - damages needles causing mottling

and loss of needles, leading to bark beetle

attack and ultimately death

Ozone-sensitive plants

Vegetables bean, grape, peanut, potato, soybean,

tomato

Many important tree species are affected by ozone aspen, birch, cottonwood, Ponderosa

pine, black cherry, white ash, sycamore, London plane tree, Sweetgum/Liquidambar, and yellow poplar).

Tolerant plants Oaks

Maples

Many pines

????? Mechanisms poorly understood © Project SOUND

http://www.slu.edu/sustainability/center-for-environmental-sciences/ozone-garden-home/how-

does-ozone-air-pollution-hurt-plants

Weeds, pests & diseases: will they

change?

Changes will be due in large part to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns

Disease-causing microbes are dependent on temperature and moisture optima for establishment and reproduction, with most diseases occurring in warm and wet conditions

Other factor like plant health and predators will also be important

© Project SOUND

https://apps.rhs.org.uk/advicesearch/Profile.aspx?pid=108

Weeds, pests, etc.

Climate change, both within California globally is likely to have a significant impact upon the types, abundance and impacts of weeds, plant pests, and diseases.

Mechanisms:

Increased competition of some weeds: higher CO2 – favor C3 plant; higher temps – favor C4 plants

Range shifts: example: weedy C4 grasses extending northward;

Changes in life cycle of insect pests The survival, range, and abundance of many invertebrate pest

species is mediated by temperature.

Furthermore, temperature is the dominant abiotic factor that directly affects herbivory

Natural controls (birds/insects) may not be available

Decreased resistance in environmentally-stressed hosts

© Project SOUND

Advice to the weary gardener

Be vigilant: keep an eye out for new weeds/pests

Keep you plants healthy – water appropriately

When you see a new pest: Learn about it on-line

If appropriate, report it: see California Report a Pest Hotline - http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/plant/reportapest/index.html

Take action swiftly to limit damage

Use Integrated Pest Management – unless the experts suggest otherwise

© Project SOUND

Summary: Climate change

Temperature:

What we can expect Temperatures overall will get hotter

More extreme heat days

Earlier springs and later falls

Probably an increase in frosts/cold extremes

What can we do about it? Take steps now to create shade

When replacing plants, choose ones that can tolerate heat/drought

Consider birds and pollinators when choosing new plants

Know what to do in case of frost

Know the rules for summer watering

Realize that you may need to deep water in winter

© Project SOUND

Summary: Climate change

Precipitation/water availability:

What we can expect Less water available from traditional sources: Sierra Nevada snowpack

and Colorado River

Likely slight decrease in local precipitation; but might be slight increase

Combined with increasing temperatures – less effective water

Likely more extreme precipitation events – both droughts & excess

What can we do about it? Take steps now to convert garden based on water zone principles

Decrease area that requires regular water

Use all the water that falls on your property: infiltration/storage

Plant choice is increasingly important:

Choose S. CA natives for their drought tolerance/adaptability

Carefully consider ‘value added’ when making each choice

Need more research on prudent use of recycled water; encourage use for replenishing aquifer

© Project SOUND

Summary: Climate change

Wind/wind patterns:

What we can expect Perhaps fewer Santa Ana events – but over more months of the year,

and with ? increasing yearly variability

More storms with strong winds

What can we do about it? Notice the wind patterns in your yard – in all seasons

Consider the consequences of stronger winds:

Check trees: branches/tree characteristics/tree age & health

Improve water infiltration for existing trees

Plant wind resistant trees

Consider shelter hedges/hedgerows or other means of shelter for areas that are vulnerable or used frequently

Check strength/integrity of fences/trellises etc.

If you live in a fire-prone area, take reasonable precautions

© Project SOUND

Summary: Climate change

Air quality/pollution:

What we can expect Perhaps better overall air quality in L.A. Basin

Effects of Santa Ana winds on western L.A. County

Effects of increased temperatures/decreased rainfall – both may increase pollution levels (particularly N-compounds; particulates)

What can we do about it? Do everything we can to decrease our carbon footprint

.Plant trees/shrubs/other plants to improve air quality

© Project SOUND

Summary: Climate change

Weeds/pests/diseases:

What we can expect Changes in temperature and precipitation will influence the types of

weeds/pests/diseases we experience in our gardens

Higher temperatures & drier conditions will decrease the effects of fungal disease and some weeds in dry years

Hot, moist conditions will bring with them a host of new problems

What can we do about it? Remain vigilant: get out in your garden a look for changes

Report new invasives/pests

Keep on top of weeds; keep them from going to seed

Use IPM – more in June class

Keep plants healthy; water appropriately

© Project SOUND

Come visit us: Mother Nature’s Backyard

© Project SOUND We’ll show you many things you can do to prepare

Humans (and their plants) have endured

and thrived in difficult climates

© Project SOUND

http://www.earth-cultures.com/images/ww/auto-crop/MORARG%20Dar%20al%20Housson.jpg

Prepared now – you/other living things depend on it

© Project SOUND http://blog.travel-exploration.com/2009/02/11/majorelle-blue/

Majorelle Botanic Garden - Morocco