Supporting Adaption: Guidance, Tools and

Learning through Doing

Mr Roger Street

UK Climate Impacts Program

Climate is Changing

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air (and ocean) temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (IPCC WG1 – AR4)

Impacts of these changes are already apparent - globally, nationally and locally.Individuals/businesses and organizations are at risk and some have already begun to respond adaptation.

Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850)

Climate Will Continue to Change

Global average surface temperature increase:<10% probability less than 1.5oCLikely range 2-4.5oC with best guess 3oCHigher than 4.5oC cannot be excluded

Over the next two decades warming of about 0.2oC per decade regardless of future emissions. Even if GHG and aerosols stabilised at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1oC per decade is expected.

Regional Nature of Projected Temperature Increases – UKCIP02

Projected Precipitation Change – UKCIP02

2020s 2050s 2080s

What does this mean for Extremes?

Some extremes will become more common, others less soAverage duration of heatwaves has increased by between 4 and 16 days since

1961

Average duration of winter cold snaps has decreased by between 6 and 12 days since 1961

Trend towards heavier winter precipitation for most parts of the UK since 1961, but droughts are still possible

These overall trends are expected to continue

Changes in Extremes

observationsMedium-High emissions

Tem

pera

ture

chan

ge,

°C

8

6

4

2

0

Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre

Increase in the number of extremely warm days (2080s)Winter: 6-12 days/year Summer: 12-30 days/year

Need for Adaptation and Mitigation

Adaptation is needed as we are already committed to some degree of climate change irregardless of mitigation efforts.

Mitigation is needed to reduce the amount and rate of future climate change – avoiding dangerous or unacceptable climate change

Influenced by historic emissions

Determined by current and future emissions

Adaptation – for the long haul

UKCIP Tools and Guidance

Adaptation Strategies & Measures

Building Adaptive Capacity – creating information, social capital, conditions (regulatory, institutional, and managerial), and support systems and means that are needed as a foundation for delivering adaptation actionsAwareness raisingData collection and monitoringChanging standards

Developing supportive policies

Research

Organizational learning

Delivering Adaptation Actions – actions that help to reduce vulnerability to climate risks or to exploit climate opportunities

Building climate resilienceAccepting losses

Changing use and/or location Exploiting opportunities

Adaptation options – Building Adaptive Capacity Increasing awareness of changes in climate, associated vulnerabilities and

adaptation options and sharing knowledge within the agricultural and broader rural communities;

Pulling together these communities to identify and assess their vulnerabilities, risks and appropriately integrated and targeted adaptation options;

Assembling representatives from these communities and participating in discussions with regulators and policy makers; and

Facilitating dialogues within the agricultural and broader rural communities for the purpose of identifying sustainable adaptation options.

The organisers and sponsors of this conference are playing a role in helping to build this adaptive capacity.

Adaptation options – Delivering Adaptation

Living with and bearing losses or risks Accept periodic losses or reductions in overall quality Accept losses where sustainability is impossible or highly impractical

Preventing effects or reducing exposure to risks – climate resilience Preparedness and contingency planning for dealing with risks Enhanced design specifications (buildings and livestock enclosures) Improved soil management (soil moisture, nutrients, erosion) Diversify (crops, livestock, forestry, eco-tourism, etc.) Increase on-site water sources

Adaptation options – Delivering Adaptation Preventing effects or reducing exposure to risks – change use or location Switch land use (change crops, livestock), less water intensive Move activity away from risks to areas climatologically more capable of sustaining

the activity.

Sharing responsibility for any losses or risks Purchase additional insurance Cooperate within your community to minimise risks (e.g., neighbours working

together to build joint water reservoirs, rainwater harvesting facilities and flood protection)

In practice, adaptation will often involve a mixture of response strategies: some building climatic resilience, some ‘living with risks’, and some acceptance of loss.

Previous climate scenarios (e.g. UKCIP02) were essentially single model runs – other climate models produced different results UKCIP02

One way of doing this is to use many versions of the model – the user will be presented with a spread of results that reflects the range of plausible outcomes

UKCIP08 – The next generation

Important to determine the uncertainty associated with the climate model results

The UKCIP08 “Tool Kit”A set of high-level headline messages will give a national overview of the main changes described by UKCIP08Focus will be on commonly used climate variable such as projected changes in rainfall, temperature and sea-level

Reports including:• Climate trends• Probabilistic changes of climate change• Marine Projections• Summary ReportA set of pre-prepared maps and graphs (also illustrative of the types of customised outputs users will be able to generate using the UKCIP08 user interface

The UKCIP08 user interface will allow users to create:• Individual maps, probabilistic plots (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, scatter graphs and box plots• Customised numerical products such as GIS format files and sampled projections that can be input to impacts modelsIt will also provide access to an integrated Weather Generator – a tool that will created statistically derived expressions of the future typical daily and hourly weather conditions consistent with the probabilistic projections.

www.ukcip.org.uk

Keeping InformedMore information on impacts, adaptation and tools and guidance UKCIP08 to be launched in October 2008UKCIP08 Climate Trends Report to be published Autumn 2007More information available through the UKCIP Scenarios Gateway:

Break Out Sessions

45mins for each session

Conclusions – The 4 big Issues

Mr Poul Christensen

Chairman