climate bus maintenance

8/17/2019 Climate Bus Maintenance

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A Maintenance Program for a bus fleet

Lessons from a Potential CDM Projectin India

Kaushik Deb, TERI


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26 Au ust 20 Trans ort CDM Work

Structure of the presentation

The policy context

CDM and transport: Synergies

Key barriersThe Project Need for an effective maintenance Inspection Systems: CDM project

Emission savings Cost estimates

Lessons


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Urban transport in India

Large urban population Over 1/3 in 2001

High vehicle density in urban areas 33% concentrated in cities with 10% population 82% are personal vehicles

Inadequate public transport Effective public transport in only 10 cities Rail in only 3 cities

No urban transport policyDiffused institutional arrangements

Implications for economic sustainability Cities are vertices of continued growth


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Trends in vehicle population

Rapid growth in vehicles...

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

'000vehicles

Personal

IP

!"s

# large share o$ old vehicles

35%

&5%

55%

65%

75%

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999

% o$vehicles

' 5 (rs


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Vehicle Ownership

Per capitainco)e *+, -

/ities ehicles Per1000 Persons

ondon *1990

Paris *1990

o(o *1990

-22000

-3&000

-37000

356

383

266

4elhi *1998 -850200

,hanghai *2000 -&00069


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DISHA 2047

Year 2019

5 !D" gro#th

Sun$ar % De&'2000(

7 !D" gro#th

MoST '1999(

Urban travel demand projections

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

bpkm


7/2926 Au ust 20 Trans ort CDM Work

Vehicular rowth

2 Wheelers

4 Wheelers

Buses3 Wheeler

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1980 1985 1990 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Thousands

2 Wheelers 4 Wheelers Buses 3 Wheeler



Polic! response in India

Largely technology based response Vehicle emissions Fuel quality Mandating alternative fuels

Inadequate attention to demand management NMT discriminated against in resource

Land use development haphazard, not in sync withtransport planning Public transport not encouraged, personal vehicles havebecome more accessible



"mission norms

New vehicles

1991: First mass emissionnorms (CO & HC)

1995: Catalytic converters for

cars in 4 metros1996: Further tightening ofnorms (CO, HC & NOx)

2000: Bharat Stage I (~EUROI)

2001: Bharat Stage II in Delhi(~EURO II)

Sustained progress!!!

In use vehicles

1989: Idle emission regulation

2004: Some tightening

Piece meal efforts

No Statutory Maintenance & Fuel

Efficiency Requirements !!!



overnment#s Auto $uel Polic!

April 2010

11 major cities

April 2005

11major cities

April 2003

7 cities otherthan metros

Entire countryEntire countryAll other new

vehicles

Entire country

(preferably fromApril 2008)

Entire country2 & 3 wheelers

Bharat Stage IVBharat Stage III

April 2010

Bharat Stage IIApril 2005

Category



%eed for an effective s!stem for in use

vehicles

Norms very lax No consistent improvement

Limited coverage Only idle tests for CO (petrol) Free acceleration tests for smoke (diesel)

Limited regulatory ability

Equipment not calibrated No auditing/ training

Weak maintenance system



S!nergi&ing Objectives

Global Significant potential for GHG mitigation in transport inIndia

National Positive impacts on local air quality, health & safety High priority for urban centres Revenue from carbon credits



' emissions from transport

Ind"str(

2&%

thers

13%

ransport

2&%

Power

39%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1971 1990 1995 2010 2020

illion

tones

orth )erica "ropePaci$ic ast sia,o"th sia atin )erica

$rica iddle ast/hina

/4 : I 2001

1999



$uel consumption ( ' emissions in

Urban India

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

HSD

!housand

!onnes"

#S !housand!onnes"

$%& m'll'on

(ub'( me!re"

2000 2025 B)*"

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

$+2 e, em'ss'ons

2000 2025 B)*"



Air )ualit! is a concern

A)r *ua+)t, Mon)tor)ng Stat)ons -./ee$)ng 0AA*S

1ore than 5 o2 the t)1e

0

5

10

15

20

25

S+2 %+- S.#

1995 1996 199/ 1998 1999 2000



Transport contributes *+,,- of PM

emissions*rb)'r #umba' WB 1995"

3esuspens

)on $ust

21

Doest)/

reuse

&urn)ng

0

Doest)/

#oo$1

Transport

1

Delh' $.$B 1994"

Domes!'(

4

ndus

!r/4

Trans

por!22



$inancial performance of public transport

operators in India

Costs per

km

Revenue

per km

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Rupees



.arriers

Baselines data availability uncertain sectoral forecasts

Leakages Fuel efficiency Vs VOCs

Monitoring and verification costs dispersed and large number of mobile sources

Additionality Mandated use of alternative fuels Comprehensive I&C regime proposed



Project description

Existing maintenance regime inadequate and primitive Even minor improvements would have large benefits

GHG savings from

Better maintenance Result: Improved energy efficiency. Hence

GHG savings, Local emissions benefits

Impact: Range estimate of GHG reduction 5% improvement in fuel efficiency in US (Das et al 2001) 5.5% improvement in Jakarta (Cornie) 12.6% improvement in fuel efficiency (USEPA IM240 Program) 10-20% improvement in fuel efficiency in India (Das et al)



Project structure

Project proponent: Thane Municipal TransportUndertaking Statutory public bus company

Owned by Thane Municipal Corporation

Mandate: Provide transport services to Thane

Activities

Bus operation Depots and terminals Bus maintenance



.us fleet covered in the program

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2005 2010 2015

Standard Bus (1991-1996) Standard Bus (1996-1999)

Standard Bus (1999-2000) Standard Bus (2000-2002)

Standard Bus (2002-2007) Standard Bus (>2007)



Maintenance chec/list

Visual safety tests Steering Chassis Fuel tank & piping Engine mountings Battery terminals etc Seatbelts Lighting

Oil leakages Leaf springs…

Automated safety tests Headlamp beam Brakes Sideslip

Emissions Volumetric concentration for gasoline Opacity for diesel



0esign issues

Project boundary Government owned bus company. Reduces

institutional complexity

data requirements, thus project development costs

Operational lifetime Life of equipment = 15 years

Crediting period: 10 years Reduced uncertainty

Monitoring & verification Fuel consumption already monitored daily Hence, no expense on monitoring



"mission savings1 Methodolog!

GHG emissions

Vehicle kms

Baseline projections based on Existing travel trends Expected changes in emission factors, fuel efficiencies

Increasingly stringent norms

Improved technology

Sustained improvements in efficiency:5%

Reference years: 2005 & 2015

( )' ( EmissionsVehicle kms km×

( )' (Vehicles Utilisation×



' savings

!aseline

Red"ction scenario

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

'1000 tons



Project costs

Net present value of project — US$ 0.13 million

Project cost US$ 0.54 million

Cost of CO2 ~ US$ 8.5

Substantial local benefits



Transport 20M projects1 3essons

Baselines Carry out pilot tests to estimate fuel efficiency gains

Leakages

Captive fleet with fixed mobility Independent of VOCs, exogenously determined demand

Monitoring and verification costs Data already monitored independently Preexisting statutory auditing: CAG

Additionality Comprehensive I&C regime proposed in India But no maintenance guidelines, requirements


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Structure of a 20M project

The Executive Board

Baselines Additionality

LeakagesMonitoring &verification

CER market

Price of CERs Total CERs

Cost of projectCost issues Equity/Debt Vs revenuestreams

CER revenues only as

revenue streams!!!


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Structure the project well444

climate bus maintenance

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