climate attribution science - heidelberg university...peter lippmann βclimate attribution science...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE:
CAN WE DETERMINE WHICH EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ARE βCAUSEDβ BY GLOBAL WARMING?
28.11.2019
Peter Lippmann
Seminar: How do I lie with statistics?
Supervision: Prof. Dr. Ullrich KΓΆthe
[1-3]
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WEATHER β NOW MORE EXTREME THAN EVER?
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 2
![Page 3: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
WEATHER β NOW MORE EXTREME THAN EVER?
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 3
![Page 4: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 4
HUMAN INFLUENCE
β¦
. .
.
CLIMATE CHANGE
β¦
. .
.
EXTREME WEATHER
![Page 5: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
THE ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 5
HUMAN INFLUENCE
β¦
. .
.
CLIMATE CHANGE
β¦
. .
.
EXTREME WEATHER
![Page 6: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
OVERVIEW
1) What is climate attribution science?
2) Weather as complex phenomenon
3) How is it done in practice?
4) Conclusion and Outlook
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 6
![Page 7: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
ASKING THE RIGHT QUESTIONS
βWas this extreme weather event caused by climate change? β Yes or No ?β
BUT: WEATHER IS A MULTICAUSAL and COMPLEX PHENOMENON!
Better questions:
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 7
βͺ Did (anthropogenic) climate change make an extreme weather
event more likely?
βͺ Did it make it more severe?
βͺ And if so, how much?
CLIMATE
ATTRIBUTION
SCIENCE
![Page 8: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
WHAT ARE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS?
βͺ Extreme Cold
βͺ Heat waves
βͺ Droughts
βͺ Precipitation
βͺ Storms
βͺ β¦
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 8
Wildfires
Floods
[5]
[4]
![Page 9: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
WHAT DOES IT RELY ON?
CLIMATE
βͺ thermodynamical trends
β’ global mean temperature
β’ water vapour in the atmosphere
β’ sea level
WEATHER
βͺ small noisy dynamics
βͺ chaotic (unpredictable)
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 9
1. Sound physics:
Robust predictions based on simple physics causations:
β Higher temperatures β more evaporation
β Warmer atmospheres hold more moisture β heavier rain/snow
β Warmer oceans feed more energy into hurricanes
[6]
![Page 10: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
WHAT DOES IT RELY ON?
2. Historical observations:
βͺ How are the frequency and characteristics of extremes changing?
βͺ Problems: - Extreme events are rare by definitionβ very few previous events
- records exist only for a few decades β new βextremesβ appear frequently
3. Computer simulations:
βͺ Necessary since no climate experiments possible
βͺ Require profound understanding of mechanisms and influences behind weather extremes
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 10
Need to complement each other
![Page 11: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
WHAT ARE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF ATTRIBUTION STUDIES?
(1) The extreme weather event was made more likely/more severe due to
anthropogenic climate change.
(2) The extreme weather event was made less likely/less severe due to
anthropogenic climate change.
(3) Anthropogenic climate change did not play a detectable role in the frequency
and characteristic of the event.
(4) With our current understanding and tools, we could not asses whether and how
the event was influenced by anthropogenic climate change.
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 11
![Page 12: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
OVERVIEW
1) What is climate attribution science?
2) Weather as complex phenomenon
3) How is it done in practice?
4) Conclusion and Outlook
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 12
![Page 13: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
βCOMPLEXβ β BUT WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
βͺ Reductionism β dominating approach in the 20th century
β The complex world is nothing but the sum of its parts.
βͺ Complexity β dominating approach in the 21st century?
β The complex world is more than the sum of its parts.
Concretely: Complexity is the study of systems consisting of many interacting units that give rise to emergent behaviour which cannot be understood by studying a single unit in isolation. [Ref. A]
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 13
[7]
![Page 14: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
THE SAND PILE METAPHOR
Build a sand pile on a table of finite size using:
1. Add a sand grain to the first site
2. If the local slope at site exceeds critical slope :
β let grain topple down to next site
β assign new critical slope to site :
3. Repeat.
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14
A) B)
β¦
C)
Relaxation!
local slope
ππ,πππππππ
(π = 0)
π§π=2
π³
ππ,ππππ β {π, π}
table size πΏ = 4
π[8]
![Page 15: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 15
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 16: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 16
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 17: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 17
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 18: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 18
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 19: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 19
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 20: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 20
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
![Page 21: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 21
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 22: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 22
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 23: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 23
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 24: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 24
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 25: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 25
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 26: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 26
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 27: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 27
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 28: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 28
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 29: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 29
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 30: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 30
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 31: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 31
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 32: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 32
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 33: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 33
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 34: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 34
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 35: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 35
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 36: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 36
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 37: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 37
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 38: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 38
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 39: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 39
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 40: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 40
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 41: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 41
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 42: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 42
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 43: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 43
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
![Page 44: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β BUILDING UP THE SAND PILE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 44
First, set all critical slopes to 1,
i.e. for all π βΆ ππ,ππππ = π .
Define avalanche size πas total number of relaxations
induced by a single grain.
β This model behaves trivially
in the steady state.
![Page 45: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 45
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
After building up the sand pile,
find a configuration like this
![Page 46: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 46
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 47: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 47
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 48: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 48
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
![Page 49: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 49
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 50: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 50
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 51: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 51
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 52: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 52
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 53: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 53
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 54: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 54
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 55: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 55
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 56: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 56
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 57: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 57
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 58: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 58
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 59: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 59
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 60: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 60
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 61: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 61
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 62: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 62
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 63: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 63
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
![Page 64: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
DEMONSTRATION β NON-TRIVIAL AVALANCHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 64
Now, choose critical slopes
randomly with
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2
β’ π ππ,ππππ = π = 1/2 .
β Avalanches of very
different sizes appear.
![Page 65: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
AVALANCHE SIZE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
βͺ Avalanche size = total number of relaxations induced by a single grain
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 65
π
Based on 10000 avalanches.
![Page 66: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
NUMBER OF RAINFALLS PLOTTED VS. EVENT SIZE
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 66
based on data from METEK
covering the period 1.1.1999
to 1.7.1999 at the Baltic coast
Zingst, Germany.
[Ref. A]
![Page 67: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
INTERPRETING THE METAPHOR
βͺ Avalanche sizes follow a power law distributions (also Pareto-distribution)
β they appear everywhere in nature and our everyday lives:
βͺ Sand pile displays Self-Organised Criticality: Smallest inputs (a single grain) produce avalanches of all orders of magnitude
β Extreme events are unlikely but not unusual! In other words:
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 67
In many systems, extreme events need no special βcauseβ or initialisation.
They are inherently part of the system.
EFFOREFFORT RESULT
β’ wealth distributions
β’ networks like the WWW
β’ Earthquake magnitudes
β’ finance
[9]
![Page 68: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
MODIFYING THE SAND PILE MODEL
βͺ This raises the following questions:
β Are weather extremes just natural variability?
β Can we somehow influence the occurrence of extreme events in our sand pile toy model?
βͺ Note: One can make the sand pile model more realistic by
βͺ However, in the case of a rain-fall model, one may increase the evaporation:
β at each step add for instance 4 grains to the pile instead of 1.
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 68
β’ Building sand piles in two dimensions
β’ Allowing for uneven (perhaps changing) ground
![Page 69: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
MODIFYING THE SAND PILE MODEL
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 69
Same event sizeSame probability
Based on 10000 avalanches.
![Page 70: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
OVERVIEW
1) What is climate attribution science?
2) Weather as complex phenomenon
3) How is it done in practice?
4) Conclusion and Outlook
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 70
![Page 71: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
ATTRIBUTION OF EXTREME WEATHERTWO APPROACHES
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 71
Anthropogenic
Climate Change
State functions
change
1.) Probabilistic approachRisk & Characteristics of an event type (may) change
2.) Pathway approach:Evolution of an individual event (may) change
Did anthropogenic climate change make an extreme weather event more likely / more severe?
Well understood
Simulation and observation of weather extremes
Sea level
Mean
temperature
Water vapour
Emissions
Deforestation
![Page 72: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β PROCEDURE
Models are used to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of an event
with human-caused climate changes VS. without these changes(FACTUAL WORLD) (COUNTERFACTUAL WORLD)
Examples: β simulate evolution of mean temperature in atmospherewith and without anthropogenic emissions
β simulate occurrence of extreme rain events with and without additional water vapour in atmosphere
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 72
ππ ππ
![Page 73: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 73
[Ref. B]
![Page 74: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β INTERPRETATION
Given ππ and ππ. What are their interpretation in terms of attribution science?
βͺ Two commonly used measures:
βͺ Example: Did we only experience a specific dice outcome only because one has manipulated it?
A) Manipulation:
Necessary cause.
B) Manipulation:
Sufficient cause.
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 74
Risk Ratio π π =π1
π0Fraction of Attributable Risk πΉπ΄π = 1 β
π0
π1
β Outcome: .
β Outcome: .
(Not present in the case of weather, since events were possible all along)
(Not present in the case of weather, since no deterministic causation)
[Ref. C]
[18]
![Page 75: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β INTERPRETATION
βͺ Example: Did we only experience a specific dice outcome only because one has manipulated it?
C) For us relevant manipulation:
βOut of 3 events that happened in the factual world
2 would not have happened in the counterfactual one.β
βManipulating the dice increased the risk of getting a 4 by a factor of 3.β
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 75
Risk Ratio π π =π1
π0Fraction of Attributable Risk πΉπ΄π = 1 β
π0
π1
β Outcome: .
πΉπ΄π = 1 β1/6
3/6=2
3
π π =3/6
1/6= 3
[18]
![Page 76: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β AN EXAMPLE
βͺ TASK: Attribution of the flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana in August 2016
βͺ repeat simulation with small changes in the initial conditions to estimate uncertainties and sensitivities
βͺ combine many models and different studies to ensure the obtained result is not particularly sensitive to the definition of an event
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 76
[10]
[Ref. D]
![Page 77: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
1.) PROBABILISTIC APPROACH β AN EXAMPLE
βͺ TASK: Attribution of the flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana in August 2016
βIn the most accurate analyses, the regional probability of 3-day extreme precipitation increases by more than a factor of 1.4 due to anthropogenic climate change.β [Ref. D]
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 77
1.4 10%
[10]
[Ref. D]
![Page 78: CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE - Heidelberg University...PETER LIPPMANN βCLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 14 A) B) β¦ C) Relaxation! local slope ππ π ππ,π π (π=0)](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022071609/61486a512918e2056c22ac8a/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
2.) PATHWAY APPROACH β PROCEDURE
βͺ NOW: Attribution of an individual weather event
βͺ Schematic pathway of a hurricane:
βͺ Condition the simulation on location at which storm formed, wind directions, atmospheric pressure, β¦
βͺ Then ask: How would the event have played out in a counterfactual world?
β’ How might its intensity have changed because of changes in SST or atmospheric humidity along its path?
β’ If the hurricane made landfall, how was the coastal flooding increased by long-term sea level rise?
PETER LIPPMANN β CLIMATE ATTRIBUTION SCIENCE 78
β¦ β¦ β¦ β¦ β¦
too chaotic to simulate reliably[11-16]
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2.) PATHWAY APPROACH β AN EXAMPLE
βͺ Attribution study from 2013: Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea leveland climate conditions for 1900
β Compared actual impacts of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans VS. impacts of similar hypothetical hurricane occurring around 1900.
βͺ Result:
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βSurge simulations suggest that flood elevations would have been 15 to 60 % lower around
1900 than the conditions observed in 2005.
This drastic change suggests that significantly more flood damage occurred in 2005 than would
have occurred if sea level and climate conditions had been like those around 1900.β [Ref. E]
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OVERVIEW
1) What is climate attribution science?
2) Weather as complex phenomenon
3) How is it done in practice?
4) Conclusion and Outlook
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CONCLUDING REMARKS
βͺ Tough question: Is anthropogenic climate change to some extend responsible for
extreme weather events?
βͺ Climate Change does and will impact people, ecosystems and economy.
To us it becomes concrete in extreme weather events.
βͺ Fundamental Problem of Causal Inference: There is only one world!
Key Challenge: How does one obtain the counterfactuals?
β SIMULATIONS turn out to be extremely powerful!
β Understanding the SCIENCE and mechanisms behind an event is thus the
bread and butter of all attribution studies.
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[17]
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
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REFENCES[A] K. Christensen, Nicholas R. Moloney; Complexity and Networks: Complexity from the book Complexity and Criticality, Imperial College Press, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1142/p365
[B] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change, 2016, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press., e-print: https://doi.org/10.17226/21852
[C] A. Hannart, J. Pearl, F. E. L. Otto, P. Naveau, M. Ghi;Causal Counterfactual Theory For The Attribution Of Weather And Climate-Related Events, 2016,DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034, e-print: https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00034.1
[D] Van der Wiel, K., Kapnick, S. B., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Whan, K., Philip, S., Vecchi, G. A., Singh, R. K., Arrighi, J., and Cullen; Rapid attribution of the August 2016 flood-inducing extreme precipitation in south Louisiana to climate change, 2017, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 897β921, e-print: https://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/21/897/2017/hess-21-897-2017.pdf
[E] Jennifer L. Irish, Alison Sleath, Mary A. Cialone, Thomas R. Knutson, Robert E. Jensen;Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900, 2013,DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-1011-1, e-print: https://www.climatecentral.org/outreach/alert-archive/IrishSleath_etal2014.pdf
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IMAGES FROM:
[1] https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/spain-flooding-flights-travel-uk-16919971
[2] https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimgorzelany/2016/01/21/winter-driving-101-how-not-to-get-stuck-in-snow/#6c34438030b7
[3] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/government-ready-with-crisis-management-plan-for-
drought/articleshow/69684018.cms?from=mdr
[4] https://calmatters.org/explainers/californias-worsening-wildfires-explained/
[5] https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-florence-north-carolina-passed-law-in-2012-climate-change-storms-more-damaging/
[6] https://sciencestruck.com/water-cycle-project-ideas
[7] https://baden-wuerttemberg.nabu.de/umwelt-und-leben/basteln-forschen-spielen/kinderfragen-beantworten/teilzwei/21883.html
[8] http://home.uchicago.edu/~ahmedb/talks/ccny_math.pdf
[9] https://slidebazaar.com/items/pareto-principle-powerpoint-template/
[10] https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/deadly-flooding-in-louisiana/
[11] https://www.kissclipart.com/butterfly-outline-clipart-monarch-butterfly-clip-a-ny2gfs/
[12] https://www.kissclipart.com/falling-leaves-clipart-autumn-leaf-color-twig-wl49y4/
[13] https://www.iconfinder.com/icons/2882343/leaves_in_wind_pleasant_weather_spring_season_symbol_spring_winds_weather_icon
[14] https://ya-webdesign.com/transparent450_/drawing-detail-cloud.png
[15] https://www.weather.gov/images/jetstream/synoptic/hi_lo.png
[16] https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x509/https://specials-
images.forbesimg.com/imageserve/5d72bcc244f2b2000803e282/960x0.jpg?fit=scale
[17] https://wallpaperaccess.com/full/448244.jpg
[18] https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/set-of-realistic-white-dice-isolated-vector-20320059
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