climate action now 2016
TRANSCRIPT
September 2016
Guy Dauncey
Guy Dauncey is a futurist who works to develop a positive vision of a sustainable future, and to translate that vision into action. He lives on
Vancouver Island, in Canada.
He is founder of the BC Sustainable Energy Association, co-founder of the Victoria Car Share Cooperative, and the author or co-author of ten
books, including The Climate Challenge: 101 Solutions to Global Warming and
Journey to the Future: A Better World Is Possible.
He is an Honorary Member of the Planning Institute of BC, a Fellow of the Findhorn
Foundation in Scotland, and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Arts, founded in Britain in 1754.
(Old photo. Add ten years.)www.earthfuture.com
www.journeytothefuture.ca www.thepracticalutopian.ca
A NOTE TO TUTORSIf you are using the slides to teach a course, please note that the first 200 are mostly about the problem; the rest are about the solutions.
So be sure to time yourself. If students only get the “OMG” side, they may become alarmed and depressed. People need the solutions too, to understand that change is possible.
Including discussion, the full presentation needs 3-5 hours.
Guy Dauncey 2016 www.earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
This whole presentation is available on
Many thanks to everyone whose photos and images I have used.Permission is granted to use these slides in courses and lectures.
Things have come a long way since the beginning of the Universe…
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com
But we have also come to this…
Vancouver Island, British Columbia
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Vancouver Island, British Columbia
Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com
We used to be so proud,how we could conquer nature.
Vancouver Island, British Columbia
World Population: 7.4 billionIncreasing by 200,000 a day
World Population: 7.4 billionIncreasing by 200,000 a day
Hopefully stabilizing
at 11 billion by AD 2100,
then declining
Extinctions
Human population
'Insatiable' by Theodore Bolha
This is a gif –Give it a
moment to kick in
Simulated global Temperature Change 1850-2100
2000
2009
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
1. Earth has a very thin atmosphere, which traps heat, protecting us from being roasted by day and frozen by night.
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
2. There are two important greenhouse gases that trap heat in
the atmosphere, keeping us warm: water vapor and
carbon dioxide
Greenhouse gases trap the Sun’s heat, and give us warmth
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
3. When there is very low water vapor and carbon dioxide, Earth enters an Ice Age
The future British Columbia during the last Ice Age
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Ice age
Over 700,000 years, carbon dioxide (blue) and temperature (red) tracked each other very closely.
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Ice age
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Ice age
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
The last 10,000 years
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
The last 150 years, burning fossil fuels
& deforestation
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
4.
4. The fossil fuels that power our worldcome from ancient fossil carbon
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Coal = ancient solar energy
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
As we burn the fossil fuels…
Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.com www.earthfuture.com
5. When we burn fossil fuels, we release their ancient carbon into the atmosphere
27% of the carbon is going into the ocean, where it is increasing acidity, poisoning shellfish and corals
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
6. When we destroy forests, we release their carbon into the atmosphere
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
7. The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
8. All this extra carbon traps heat, causing global warming
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Methane, nitrous oxide and CFCs also trap heat
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
Fort McMurray, Summer 2016
Where the heat is going
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
9. When there is too much CO2 Earth warms, oceans warm, ice melts, and the sea level rises
The last time the world was 3C warmer,the sea level was 25 metres higher.
2 metres
10 metres
18 metres
25 metres
The Guardian, March 22, 2016
Vancouver 2 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 4 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 6 Metres Sea-Level Rise
Vancouver 20 Metres Sea-Level Rise
2-metre sea-level riseEvery beach on the planet … GONE
September
February
Arctic Sea-Ice Decline, 1979-2029
If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to
31% of Earth’s species
will be committed to extinction,
having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat
10. We need urgent and rapid change to end these harmful historical habits, and build a green, sustainable future
How to Understand the Climate Crisis in 10 Easy Steps
The four human causes of the climate crisis
The four human causes of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels
The four human causes of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy
The four human causes of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy3. Destroying forests
The four human causes of the climate crisis
1. Burning fossil fuels2. Eating meat, dairy3. Destroying forests
4. Destructive economy
Global Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions
2004. (Source IPCC)
Why do people really deny the climate science?
1. If people come to believe it’s true, it will threaten our corporate profits from fossil fuels.
2. I don’t like big government, and if it was true, governments would have to act, and they’d need more powers, so I believe it’s all a government plot.
3. I am a confident, well-educated older male, and I think I know how the world works. I don’t like being wrong, and I really don’t like tree-huggers telling me I’m wrong.
4. I’m very comfortable, and I don’t like change - and this climate thing has got change written all over it.
Seven great climate websites
www.skepticalscience.com
www.theguardian.com
thinkprogress.org/climate
www.climatechangenews.com
insideclimatenews.org
www.climatecentral.org
cleantechnica.com
www.bcsea.org/green-economy
Pause for Climate Science Discussion
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. Phase out industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy
Five minutes of Climate Math…
1750 Atmospheric carbon 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm
350 ppm = 700 Gt
10 GT
45%
27%
27%
Where the carbon is
going
Carbon added to the atmosphere every year. 45% of 10 Gt = 4.5 Gt
4.5 GT of carbon
2°C
2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
2012
493GT
2015
304GT
2020
104GT
2025
0
2030
Potsdam Institute
The Paris Climate Agreement
Great Collapse
Great Transition
A Global Carbon CapA firm global cap
on fossil fuel emissions,agreed to by all nations,
motivated by real alarm, and a clear positive vision
of a future green economy.
By 2015, a global cap of 493 Gt of future CO2
for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015 Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
= a 25% chancethat we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier
The 2015 Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
Canada’s Other Greenhouse Gases
MethaneNitrous OxideThe F Gases
Also all to zero by 2040
Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions
500Megatonnes of CO2
Canada’s shareof global emissions
1.25%The Non-Equity Model,
divided by current emissions
How longwill the budget
last?
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction
25Mt of CO2
ZeroBy 2040
Starting today
Starting 2020
EndDeforestation
1.5
Gigatonnes of carbon a year
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
The livestock industry – meat & dairy – is causing 15% of global warming
Who, - me?
Me?
Why so big?
N2O from manure
Methane from manure
Methane from anaerobic digestion (burping)US Data
Each molecule of methane traps 34 x more heat than CO2 over 100 years; 84 x more over 20 years.
Here’s the small print on
GHGs from livestock.
Livestock’s Long Shadow.
FAO, 2006.
= 14=18%
Under discussion in Denmark
National Carbon Caps
1. Each nation is allocated a cap, agreed by negotiation.
2. Every producer or importer of fossil fuels bids for a permit in a national annual auction.
3. The auction puts a price on carbon and brings income to the government.
Fossil fuels imported
Fossil fuels extracted
An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction
The Race to Zero
= The Race to a Clean Green Economy
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year5-10% CO2 reduction
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every yearrenewable energy
increase
Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
Denmark
Denmark
Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses
Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses
Year 1: eg 5 tonnes CO2 (average per person)Year 2: less 5-10%, etc
+ A Carbon Exchangeto buy and sell rations
Business Carbon Rationing
Not everyone wants this – it’s a struggle
LNG
=Leave itN theGround
Why? The climate crisis, the salmon, the eelgrass, the Tsimshian, the Haida…
Lelu IslandSkeena Estuary
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
1. Promote climate leadership, engagement, education and adaptation
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
2. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve 100% renewable energy for electricity by 2030
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
3. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable transportation
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
4. Create targets, policies and regulations to achieve a transition to sustainable buildings
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
5. Put an annually increasing effective price on carbon
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
6. Build a green, cooperative, caring,entrepreneurial economy for the 21st century
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
7. Create targets, policies and regulations to reduce fossil fuel industry emissions and leave most fossil fuels in the ground
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
8. Create targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s emissions-intensive industries reduce their
emissions and shift to 100% renewable energy
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
9. Create targets, policies and regulations to help Canada’s farmers, ranchers and foresters to reduce
their emissions and sequestrate carbon
The Ten Most Important Climate Action Clusters
10. Work with other nations to accelerate global progress
65%of British Columbians want a commitment to
phase out coal, oil and gas, replacing them with renewable energy.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
73 %of British Columbians want to see a legally enforced cap or limits on carbon pollution.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
75%of British Columbians think protecting the climate is more important than building
pipelines and further developing the tar sands.Oracle Poll, November 2015
92%of British Columbians
want to see a plan to develop jobs in
the renewable energy sector.
Oracle Poll, November 2015
So how are we going to
do this?
It will take everyone – you, me, non-profits, schools, colleges,
governments, businesses, banks, - and global cooperation
GREENHOUSEGASES
GREENHOUSEGASES
THE CAUSES
FOSSIL FUELS in•TRANSPORTATION•ELECTRICITY•INDUSTRY•HEAT
MEAT & DAIRY
DEFORESTATION
CONVENTIONAL FARMING
METHANE, F GASES
CARBON LOSS
EXTRACTIVE ECONOMY
GREENHOUSEGASES
THE SOLUTIONS
100% RENEWABLE ENERGY in•TRANSPORTATION
•ELECTRICITY•INDUSTRY
•HEAT
LESS MEAT & DAIRY
SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY
ORGANIC FARMING
REDUCED METHANE
ECOSEQUESTRATION
RESTORATIVE ECONOMY
GREENHOUSEGASES
LEARN
EDUCATEACTDREAM
PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOs
GREENHOUSEGASES
INNOVATIONNEW
SUPPORT
POLICIES
INCENTIVESR & D
ECO-INVESTMENT
ECONOMYJOBS
GOVERNMENTSBUSINESS
GREENHOUSEGASES
FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS
CARBONPRICING
GREENHOUSEGASES
FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS
GREENHOUSEGASES
This way needs a price of $200 a tonne by 2030(Is Win-Win Possible? Mark Jaccard et al, 2016)
For example:•Revenue-neutral carbon tax, rising each year, balanced by tax reductions•Revenue positive carbon tax, income to climate solutions•Carbon fee and dividend, everyone gets an annual cheque•Carbon cap-and-trade, caps for industry, trading for carbon allowances
CARBONPRICING
GREENHOUSEGASES
This way gets needs far lower carbon pricing
For example:•Auto-emissions – eg zero emissions (eg all EVs) by 2030•Electricity – eg zero coal-fired by 2025, gas-fired by 2030•Low carbon fuel standard applied to freight•Biofuel sustainability regulations, incl upstream emissions•Industry – declining GHGs emissions per unit of output, exemptions for export-vulnerable industries•Coal, oil and gas production emissions caps•All new buildings energy net-zero (Passive House) by 2025•All condos mandatory efficiency audits and retrofits
LEARN
EDUCATE
ACT
DREAM
INNOVATIONNEW
SUPPORT
POLICIES
INCENTIVESR & D
ECO-INVESTMENT
ECONOMYJOBS
PUBLIC, YOU & ME,SCHOOLS, NGOs
GOVERNMENTSBUSINESS
GREENHOUSEGASES
CARBONPRICING
FLEXIBLE REGULATIONS
Climate Action - Putting it all together
Pause for Discussion
The visions we offer our children shape the future. It matters what those visions are.
– Carl Sagan, 1934-1996
The Motivating Power of Vision
Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the LAUNCH RAMP
for the Solar Age
30,000 yearsFirewood
300 yearsFossil FuelsScience
EngineeringEnlightenment
Two billion yearsSolar Energy
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than
a billion years, and with every passing year,
solar technologies will improveand fall in price.
Neolithic Era
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 years
Neolithic EraAncient Egypt
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 years
Neolithic EraAncient Egypt
Roman Empire
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The last 10,000 years
Neolithic EraAncient Egypt
Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
The last 10,000 years
Neolithic EraAncient Egypt
Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
The Age of Fossil Fuels
……………………………………….
The next 1,000,000,000 years
The Solar Age
Farewell and Thank You, Fossil Fuels
Welcome, Solar Age!
CITY OF VICTORIAjust voted to go
100% RENEWABLE
Oslo voted to slash emissions 95% by 2030
Mark Carney, Governor, Bank of England
“Climate change initiatives offer a $5-7 trillion funding opportunity
for capital markets.”
HOW MANY FOSSIL FUEL
JOBS WILL END?
HOW MANY NEW JOBS WILL BE CREATED?
Almost Twice as Many Green Jobs in Canada
By Guy Dauncey
800,000 fossil fuel jobs lost 1,000,000 green energy jobs gained
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Direct Jobs
Induced Jobs
Indirect Jobs
Direct Job: Installing Solar
Indirect Job: Making Solar
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Induced Job: Spending Solar Earnings
Solar worker
Farmer$$$
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Canada has 555,000 direct and indirect jobs in fossil fuels
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
If phased out by 2040: 22,000 jobs disappear each year.
If phased out by 2050: 16,000 jobs disappear each year.
555,000 Direct and Indirect Fossil Fuel Jobs
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Where will the new jobs be?
1.Renewable Electricity2.Building Retrofits3.Railway Electrification4.Cycling5.Electric Vehicles6.Transit7.Farming
If by 2040: Can they create 22,000 new jobs a year?
If by 2050: Can they create 16,000 new jobs year?
www.ironandearth.org
TRANSPORTATIONAn organized plan to shift all modes of transport
to 100% renewable energy by 2040
TRANSPORTATION WITHOUT FOSSIL FUELS
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
3-D pavement art, Sichuan, China
Metro do Porto, Portugal
Downtown streets
www.restreets.org
Downtown streets
Suburban streets
Suburban streets
Hamburg Autobahn, Germany
The road will run under the green space
Community Celebration – the oldest tradition
Neighbourhood Tool-Sharing
www.cityrepair.org
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Portland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org
Neighbours in the Gorge area of Victoria got together to learn about resilience and improve their
street. This used to be a boring concrete wall.
The Bicycle - a Romance in 10 ActsAct 1: Love
Act 2: Marriage
Act 3: Sperm Donation
Act 4: Kids!
Act 5: More Kids!
In Odense, Denmark, 5-Year-Olds Bike to School on their Own
Act 6: To School!
Act 7: All the Neighbours’ Kids
Act 8: The Safe Commute to Work
Act 9: Shopping
Act 10: Retirement
Act 11: Old Age
Act 12: The End
Solar electric bike, top speed 48 km/hr
The Copenhagen Wheel
The Veemo, Vancouver, 2016Electric bike-car
www.velometro.com
Seville Bike LaneSpain
Copenhagen Bicycle-Bridge
Solar bike lane, South Korea
The Hovenring Bicycle Bridge, HollandConnects Eindhoven and Veldhoven
Melkweg (‘Milky Way’) Bike and pedestrian bridgePurmerend, Holland
A possible future Granville Street Bridge, Vancouver
10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities created if people in major European cities cycled
as much as they do in Copenhagen. World Health Organization, 2014
655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more
than 400,000 new jobs could be created. Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of
turnover than other transport sectors.
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Cycling Economy Jobs1% cycling trip share 4,000 jobs25% cycling trip share 103,000 jobs
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Year 1 Year 251% Trip Share 160 jobs 4,000 jobs25% Trip Share 4,000 jobs 103,000 jobs12.5% Trip Share 2,000 jobs 50,000 jobs
Barcelona is moving ALL buses to100% electric by 2020
Los Angeles BYD Articulated Electric Bus 170 miles range
Australian/Chinese Brighsun Bus1027 km on one charge
(no passengers. 500 km when full)
Curitiba, Brazil
Elevated transit bus, under development in China
Imagine – tables on buses common in Europe
The Pilot: real-time in-ear translations in French, Spanish, Italian, and English
Bio-methane from Bristol's sewage treatment (UK) 300 km on a tank of gas.
Well-to-wheel, biomethane produces 95% less CO2 than diesel
Transit Expansion JobsInstallation Jobs Operational Jobs
Year 1 28,000 13,000Year 25 28,000 338,000Extrapolated for all of urban Canada from the Metro Vancouver Mayors’ Transportation Plan
Build-Them-Ourselves Bus Shelters
Real-time electronic bus stops
Car sharing - Car2GoHow many members in Vancouver?
Car sharing - Car2Go100,000 members in Vancouver
Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.
Top
Hiroko EV in northern Spain
Top
Same car – it folds up!
EV and Hybrid EV sales in Norway pass 30% market share
Norway’s Transport Plan assumes that electric cars could have 100% share of new car sales by 2025.
India is working on a plan to make every car electric by 2030, self-financed by the savings on gas.
Almost 400,000 advance orders have been placed for the new US $35,000 Tesla Model 3.
320 kilometres range
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Honda solar electric car charging
Smart grid solar-powered charging station
York University Faculty of Environmental Studies
Image of future charging lane in England
2nd hand Nissan Leaf: $17,000www.motorizevictoria.ca
The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
2018
The falling price of EV batteries
From 2025, all BMWs to be electric
By 2025, Holland is preparing to ban the purchase of gas and diesel cars
Honda’s EV Battery Recycling Plant, Japan
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Electric Cars: The $$ spent on electricity stays in Canada
1,000 25,000 new Induced Jobs
I M A G I N E
An Electric Vehicles Climate Solutions Treaty
40 nations agree toA Zero Emissions Standard
for all new cars by 2025All light trucks by 2030
Electric Highways for Trucks, Sweden
40 ton truck, 100 km range, 3-4 hours recharge
Swiss E-Force 18 tonne electric truck300 km range
80–110 kWh per 100 km at highway speed
Future Nicola One 2000 HP electric truckCNG hybrid. Driving range 800-1200 miles
per tank. www.nikolamotor.com
Future Scania electric truck, recharging by an inductive roadway.
Future railwayselectric, 100% renewable energy
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Railway Electrification50,000 kilometres14,000 jobs a year
In France, the TGV railway has formed a partnership with the Louvre Art Gallery
3M graphic film
Norway’s Electric Ferry ZeroCat5.7 km route, 20 minute round trip
Long-Distance Trucking: nothing ready yet
Long-Distance Shipping : nothing ready yet
The Wind Challenger, University of Tokyo
The Energy ObserverSolar, wind, & onboard hydrogen from electrolysis
Aviation: nothing ready yet
Millennium Airship
Airbus E-Fan. 100% electric.
Solar Impulse. 100% solar electric.
Air pollution - gone
Pause for Transportation Discussion
ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan
Help the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025, all gas-fired power plants by 2040
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Area needed – totally theoretically – for all of Earth’s power to be met by solar PV
Price of Solar Module
per Watt
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
100 GW in 2012
Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000
200 GWin 2014
Mass production = falling prices
Solar on a Condo, Victoria, BCwww.bcsea.org/solar-on-strata
Average BC home electricity per yearUsing baseboard heat: 20,000 kWhUsing gas heat: 11,000 kWhLED lights, super efficient: 5,000 kWh4 kW solar system: 4,400 kWh
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
4 kW PV System$3.50 to $4 per watt
$14-16,000 + tax4,400 kWh year
Solar Economics in BC (1)4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
4 kW + tax $16,800 3% finance $24,000 kWh per year 4,400Hydro savings pa $572 and risingCost per year $960
Solar Economics in BC (1)4 kW @ $4.00 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
Cost per year $960Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $6952025: $8872030: $1132
Solar Economics in BC (2)4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
4 kW + tax $11,340 3% finance $16,200 kWh per year 4,400Hydro savings pa $572 and risingCost per year $648
Solar Economics in BC (2)4 kW @ $2.70 per watt
13 cents kwh, 3% per year hydro increase3% finance
Cost per year: $648Savings per year 2016: $572
2020: $6952025: $8872030: $1132
Average EV: 18 kWh per 100 km20,000 km = 3,600 kWh a year3,600 kWh a year = 3.3 kW PV
Vauban, Freiburg, Germany
Somewhere in Germany(or Austria)
Dubai Sustainable City
Nelson’s Community Solar Garden
BCIT Energy Oasis, Burnaby, BC250 kw, 500-kWh Li-ion Batteries
2 DC Fast Charge stationsSophisticated energy-management system (EMS)
21 kW. The money saved goes into Climate and Renewable Energy scholarships
for the students
Solar Stadium, Taiwan
Floating Solar in England. They clip together, like Lego
The world’s largest floating solarQueen Elizabeth II reservoir, Walton-on-Thames, England
23,046 solar panels, 6.3 MW
13.7MW plant on the Yamakura Dam reservoir
Thin-film Solar PV
Solar Shingles
China’s share of solar module and wind turbine manufacturers
3 cents kwh 3.6 cents kwh
Pause for Solar Discussion
“We’ve got to stop them! Those wind turbines are killing birds.”
Reality
Reality
Reality
Tidal Energy Plant, South Korea
Proposed Tidal Lagoon, Swansea, Wales
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Installation Operation/Maintenance
Per Year Year 1 Year 25Solar 101,000 1,700 42,000Wind 29,000 700 15,000Geothermal 15,000 600 14,000TOTAL 145,000 3,000 71,000
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Canada Electricity Demand 2014 511 TWh
Canada Electricity Demand 2040 750 TWh
Canada Renewable Electricity 2013 330 TWh
New Renewables Needed by 2040
420 TWh
Pause for GeneralRenewable Energy Discussion
BUILDINGSZero emissions for all new buildings starting in 2020.
Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040.Nationwide program to retrofit every building for energy efficiency and renewable energy.
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com Building Energy Retrofits
Guy Dauncey 2015www.earthfuture.com
Building Retrofit Jobs90% of
buildings$ investment per building
$ billion per
year
Jobs per year
Residential 11,250,000 $10,000 $4.5 67,500C & I 432,000 $50,000 $1.7 25,500Total 93,000
Total, assuming 90% of buildings 93,000 jobs a year
Canada, population 35 million
500
6.6 73,000 26,000
Canada-wide1.75
A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain
blog.floridaenergycenter.org
Passive Houses, Victoria90% reduced heat loss
Passive House, Victoria, B.C. 90% less heat energy, 15 kwh/m2, 4.4% more cost
www.bernhardtpassive.com
Brussels, BelgiumSince 2015, all new buildings and retrofits are
required to be Nearly-Zero Energy, based on the Passive House Standard.
Stockholm, 80,000 apartmentsheat from treated sewage
Vancouver Olympic VillageSewage-Based District Heat
Drake Landing, Okotoks, AlbertaStored Solar Thermal Heat
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Okotoks, Alberta – Solar Heating
800 solar hot water panels on the garages
Energy Centre
Community solar Thermal panels
90% solar heating throughout the cold Alberta winter
Marstal, on the Danish island of Aero100% solar district heat + 23.4 MWth solar thermal storage
+ Biomass cogeneration plant
Stored Solar District Heat
Six Sources of Renewable Heat
Air-source heat Ground-source heat Stored solar heat
Biomass/Biogas Heat exchange ventilator Dog-source heat
Where cars dominates, people connect less. Less sense of neighbourhood.
Less mutual support.
With people-inspired urban design, people connect. More sense of neighbourhood.
More mutual support.
Semiahmoo Transit Station Surreywww.greenovergrey.com
Semiahmoo Transit Station Surreywww.greenovergrey.com
REGEN Danish village, 100 homes being built summer 2016. EFFEKT Architects
Energy positive homes. High-yield organic food production. Mixed renewable energy and storage. Water and waste
recycling. Empowerment of local communities.
EFFEKTwww.effekt.dk/work#/regenvillages
Pause for Buildings Discussion
INDUSTRYImprove energy efficiency,
replace coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.
Industrial Heat: No coal substitutes yet
ALBERTA OIL SANDSPlan Zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.
Freeze production at current level.Deny licenses for all new pipelines.
Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
FOOD AND FARMINGOrganic farming everywhere
Organic yields match conventional yields.Organic outperforms conventional in years of drought.
Organic farming uses 45% less energy.Conventional systems produce 40% more greenhouse gases.Organic farming is
more profitable than conventional.Rodale Institute, 30-year trials.
A Local Food Economy
Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard
Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard
Brooklyn School Edible Schoolyard
All organic farms protect their bees
Using small-scale intensive organic horticulture, farmers can earn $50,000 an acre,
50% costs, 50% income
Pause for Food & Farming Discussion
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistithe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy
The five fundamental solutions to the climate crisistothe climate crisis1. 100% renewable energy
2. No more industrial meat3. Restore Earth’s forests4. Eco-sequestrate carbon5. A restorative economy
Atmospheric carbon in 1750
560 Gt 260 ppm
Atmospheric carbon in 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm
Atmospheric carbon in 2016
560 Gt 807 Gt 260 ppm 407 ppm
350 ppm = 700 Gt
Atmospheric carbon in 2016
807 Gt
700 Gt
SustainableForestryOrganic
Farming
NewRanching
SustainableForestry
In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.
In the Pacific Northwest, at its maximum, a 160-year rotation cycle will store 590 tonnes of carbon per hectare,
compared to 363 tonnes in a 490-year cycle.
+ 1 Gt of carbon a year
Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
Zero-till, conservation farming and organic farming could sequestrate 50 GT of carbon
from the atmosphere. - Rattan Lal
+ 1.5 Gt of carbon a year
+ 2 Gt of carbon a year
3 Gt a year for 33 years = 100 GtNeeds the whole world to do it, by treaty
Pause for Eco-Sequestration Discussion
The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
GDP =GrossDepletion of the
Planet
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
GrossDepletion of the
Planet
Why?
To raise cattle, to make hamburgers
Green Business Certification
Benefit Corporations
Public Banking
$15 Minimum wage
Basic Income Guarantee
Measuring General Provincial Happinessas well as Gross Domestic Product
Abolish Every Tax Haven
Climate Treaties are essentially voluntary
Trade Treaties come with tribunals, bringing huge penalties and costs.
Chapter 11 allows corporations to sue governments if they feel they have not been treated as a domestic
company would be treated.
After Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline, TransCanada filed a $15 billion lawsuit under NAFTA.
Where will the money come from?
1. Private & Utility Investors2. Carbon taxes and pricing3. Climate Bonds4. Public Banking Credit Creation5. Green Quantitative Easing
Pause for New Green Economy Discussion
www.theclimatemobilization.org
• Global Carbon Cap
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Tax• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
• Climate Bonds• Carbon Price• Carbon Rationing• All new cars EV by 2025• All new buildings Passive
House standard by 2020• Widespread local mobilization • Huge local food initiative• Tax on meat and dairy• Solar electrification of railways
• Rapid transition to 100% Renewable Energy• All coal-fired power plants shut down by 2018• All gas-fired power plants shut down by 2025• All fossil fuel exports ended… and a whole lot more
• Global Carbon Cap• National Carbon Caps
So what is our future to be?
Collapse is Possible
A Great Transition is Possible
It’s up to each of us to choose. And then to act.
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com