Climate Action

Meeting the EU’s Kyoto commitments &

Avoiding a gap after 2012

Doha, 27 November 2012

Paolo CARIDIPolicy CoordinatorDG Climate Action

European Commission

Climate Action

Outline

• 2008-2012: Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets

• 2013 - 2020: The EU’s Climate & Energy Package

• Beyond 2020: EU Roadmap 2050

Climate Action

Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets (1): EU-15

Actual and projected emissions of EU-15, in MtCO2-eq.

EU-15 currently over-achieve 2008-2012 Kyoto target of 8% emissions reductions

In 2010, EU-15 GHG emissions are 11% below the base-year level.

Provisional 2011 data show -14% reduction in EU-15 GHG emissions

Climate Action

Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets (2): EU-27

In 2010, EU-27 GHG emissions are 15% below the base-year level

Despite a slight increase of GHG emissions in 2010 compared to 2009 of 2.4%, there is a decreasing trend since 2004

Provisional 2011 data show: EU-27 -18% reduction

Actual and projected emissions of EU-27, in MtCO2-eq.

Climate Action

Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets (3): Member State by

Member State

Including additional measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks, almost all member states achieve their targets, and many overachieve their Kyoto targets

Climate Action

Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets (4): GHG emissions by sector

Significant emissions reductions in all sectors except transport

BUT: EU legislation will reduce CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and new light commercial vehicles

BUT: Intra-EU aviation emissions included in EU ETS since 2012

Share in 2010

0%

3%

7%

10%

20%

28%

32%

Other

Waste

Industrial processes

Agriculture

Transport

Energy use (excludingtransport)

Energy supply

1990-2010 change

-32%

-30%

-26%

-22%

20%

-22%

-18%

Climate Action

Achieving the EU’s Kyoto targets (5): Decoupling of GDP Growth and Emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

GDP

GHG emissions

GHG intensity

Evolution of EU-27 GDP, GHG emissions and emission intensity , 1990 = 100 Decoupling of economic

growth from GHG emissions has been progressing steadily

Between 1990 and 2010, EU-27 GDP grew by 46 % while emissions decreased by 15 %

Between 1990 and 2010 GHG intensity decreased in all MS

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (1): Enacted legislation for 2013-2020

Reach -20% GHG emission reductions by 2020

Conditional step-up to -30%

EU Emission Trading System as core instrument

Increase share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020

Improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2020

Climate Action

GHG Target in 2020: -20% compared to 1990

Non ETS sectors (transport, buildings, waste, agriculture)

-10% compared to 2005

-14% compared to 2005

EU Emissions Trading System (ETS)

-21% compared to 2005

27 Member State targetsstretching from -20% to +20%

EU Climate & Energy Package (2): Structure

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (3): The ETS

• Auctioning: mainly for the power sector, use of auctioning revenue (eg NER 300)

• Benchmarking to avoid carbon leakage in industries at risk• Registries• Inclusion of aviation• Address market imbalance.

CO2 (Energy production, refineries, industry (steel, cement etc.),Aviation);N2O (fertilizer)

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (4): Sectors outside the ETS

• Implement national targets (Effort Sharing Decision)

• Emission performance standards for cars and light duty vehicles for 2020

• Common accounting for land use, land use change and forestry

• Recast of F-gases regulation• Transport White Paper• Energy Efficiency Directive

CO2 (Households, Services, Transport),CH4 (Waste, Agriculture),N2O (Agriculture)

Climate Action

• Almost all EU Member States are projected to reach or exceed their non-EU ETS emissions reduction targets

• The EU-27 as a whole are projected to exceed the reduction target, both with and without additional measures

Projected gap to 2020 targets for non-ETS sectors. Negative and positive values respectively indicate overachievement and shortfall from emissions targets.

EU Climate & Energy Package (5):

Tracking progress

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (6): Energy Efficiency Target

Diverse set of policies and measures, e.g. CO2&cars: 130g/km in 2015, 95g/km in 2020 Energy efficiency standards: light bulbs, appliances, electric

motors… Energy labelling: domestic appliances Buildings Directive Energy Efficiency Directive (July 2012)Challenges ahead Finance: renovation of buildings – link with EU budget Structural changes: e.g. urban planning, modal shift System changes: e.g. electrification

NEW

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (7): Evolution of emissions performance of new cars until 2020

2015 CO2 emissions target for new cars

2020 CO2 emissions target for new cars

Regulation 443/2009 setting emission performance standards for new passenger cars to reduce CO2 emissions

Climate Action

EU Climate & Energy Package (8):Member States’ Renewables Targets

National policies, e.g. Feed-in tariffs, green certificates

Accelerated deployment – strong impact on investments patterns

Reduces greenhouse gas emission

Drives down costs of key technologies (PV, wind)

Reduces dependency on imported fuels SE FI PT RO LT ES EU SK PL CZ

HU BE NL LU

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2020 national target2009 performance

EU

Climate Action

EU Roadmap 2050: The international context

Globally halving emissions by 2050 compared to 1990

EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990, in the context of necessary reductions by developed countries

Need for a low carbon 2050 strategy as framework for longer term action

Need to fix intermediary stages towards reaching the 2050 objective

Need to keep developments under review on a regular basis

Climate Action

EU Roadmap 2050 (2):A cost-efficient pathway

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 AgricultureEfficient pathway:-25% in 2020-40% in 2030-60% in 2040

80% domestic reduction in 2050 feasible• with currently

available technologies

• If all economic sectors contribute

Climate Action

EU Roadmap 2050 (3):Stimulating growth and creating jobs

• Shifting fuel expenditure to clean investments• Innovation in key growth

sectors crucial for future competitiveness

• Potential net job creation up to 1.5 million by 2020

• GDP more secure from energy price shocks

GDP and GHG decoupling

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

19

90

= 1

00

%

GDP GHG emissions

Climate Action

Conclusions

EU will overachieve on its Kyoto targets 2008-2012

With continuous implementation efforts, EU will be on track to its 2013-2020 targets; and EU already makes efforts to go further

EU also started exploring cost efficient low emission opportunities beyond 2020 with Roadmap 2050

Climate Action

Thank you for your attention!

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/brief/eu/index_en.htm