ClimAfricaClimate prediction in Sub-Saharan

Africa: Impacts and adaptation

Stefano Materia, Post-Doc Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate ChangeClimate Service Division

WMOGeneva, 26 October 2012

Overview

Part 1: CMCC and its divisions

Part 2: Climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts and adaptation

Euro Mediterranean Center on Climate Change

• Research Center on Climate Science and Policy• Network of public and private research institutes• Funded by the Italian Ministries: MIUR (University &

Research), MATTM (Environment) and MEF (Economy & Finance)

• IPCC focal point for Italy

MISSION: Investigate and model the climate system and its interaction with society to provide reliable, rigorous, and timely scientific results to stimulate sustainable growth, protect the environment and to develop science-driven adaptation and mitigation policies in a changing climate.

The CMCC Divisions

Climate Services (SERC)

Main objectives:

• Develop tailored sectorial climate products in a time consistent way, up-to-date and regularly maintained

• Establish a discussion and interaction platform with stakeholders

• Develop new information systems and tools to support research and dissemination

Activities:

• Production of climate predictions and climate change projections (global scale, regional focuses).

• Communication of the results and information obtained to a broad range of users: decision makers and stakeholders, political bodies and public administration, researchers from other disciplines.

• Coordinate research on adaptation policies to climate change and provide technical and scientific support to the institutions for multilateral negotiation processes in the field of climate change (EU, IPCC, UNFCCC).

Targeted sectors

Energy

Insurance

Tourism

Transports

AgriculturePublic sector

Currently, our major “customers”/stakeholders are large international institutions (e.g., World Bank, …) and national policy makers and institutions (European Union, Italian ministries, regional and local administrations)

World Bank:Climate risks on Nigeria’s growth

Italian Ministry of Environment:

Guidelines for National Adaptation Strategies

Po River Basin Authority: water

management

Venice municipality: Urban planning

CMCC Climate Service Activities

EU:Climate predictions in the frame of

ClimAfrica

Overview

Part 1: CMCC and its divisions

Part 2: Climate predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: Impacts and adaptation

Why ClimAfrica? What ClimAfrica?

Africa is probably the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate variability, because of the combination of low adaptive capacity and particular eco-climatic and socio-economic conditions (i.e. sea level rise, flooding, drought, desertification, poverty, conflicts, urbanization, population growth, diseases, etc.).The majority of African population rely on rain fed agriculture. Hence, food production directly depends on climate, making economy and livelihood to be significantly at risk because of climate change.

ClimAfrica is conceived to respond to the urgent need for the most appropriate and up-to-date tools to better understand and predict climate variability and change in Africa, assess their impact on ecosystems and population, and develop suited adaptation strategies.

How ClimAfrica? Who ClimAfrica?

ClimAfrica Work PlanThe work is organized in eight complementary work-packages:WP1: Past climate variabilityWP2: Modelling seasonal to decadal climate predictionsWP3: Climate impactsWP4: Medium-term warning system, vulnerability, adaptationWP5: Socio-economic implicationsWP6: Case studies in AfricaWP7: Project ManagementWP8: Dissemination

ClimAfrica Objectives1- Develop improved climate predictions on seasonal to decadal scales2- Assess climate impacts in key sectors of Sub-Saharan Africa economy, such as water resources and agriculture3- Evaluate vulnerability of ecosystems and population to inter-annual climate variations and longer trends (20 years)4- Suggest and analyse new suited adaptation strategies5- Develop a new concept of mid-term monitoring and forecasting warning system (for food security, risk management, civil protection).

The ClimAfrica consortium is formed by 18 institutions, 9 from Europe, 8 from Africa, and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations (FAO).

WP1 - past climate variability

Collection and synthesis of various data that diagnose the climate variability, with particular regard to water cycle, and the productivity of ecosystems in the past decades. The data streams range from ground based observations and satellite remote sensing to model simulations. WP1 provides consolidated data to other WPs in ClimAfrica, and analyses the interactions between climate variability, water availability, and ecosystem productivity of Sub-Saharan Africa.

WP2 - Seasonal and decadal prediction system

Radiative forcingGHGs & SO4

Land Surface

Athmosphere

OceanSea Ice

Global Model Components

Atmospheric initial conditions

Ocean initial conditions

Near-Observational inputs

The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System (SPS)

The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System is initialised with the “closest to reality” state of the ocean and atmosphere. The model evolves according to both the initial conditions and the physical equations ruling the earth’s system.

WP2 - Seasonal and decadal prediction system

Surface T anomaly, prediction for autumn 2010

WP3 – Climate impacts on key-ecosystem services (water and agriculture)

Quantify the sensitivity of vegetation productivity and water resources to seasonal, interannual and decadal variability in weather and climate, using impact models on agriculture and water

Identify tradeoffs and areas of risk and vulnerability related to: a)water related hazardsb)agricultural and pastoral performancec)soil degradation

…using an agroDVM

Separated components of LPJ-GUESS Net echosystem exchange (NEE) for the African continent, derived from the difference between a full LPJ-GUESS landuse simulation and runs with seperate climate components kept constant.

WP4 – Medium-term of Forecasting food and water vulnerabilities and recommending relevant adaptation measures

Task 4.1 • Understand the current dynamics of major food production

systems in Africa (and develop a set of conditional vulnerability scenarios based on current agricultural and socio-economic trends to be used to assess impacts

Task 4.2• Create a Medium Term Warning System considering both

“persistent” and “extreme” climate impact factors

Task 4.3• Identification of options for adaptation to climate change and

development and dissemination of planning methods, tools and guides (with WP8)

ClimAfrica - Climate change predictions in Sub-Saharan Africa: impacts and adaptation

ClimAfrica Project Meeting Accra 18-19/01/2012

WP5 – Socio-economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation in SSA

Using a macro-economic, top-down modelling approach, WP5 will assess the economic implication of climate change impacts on agriculture for the SSA economic systems. Impacts will be detailed region wide in term of GDP changes, competitiveness changes, trade flow changes. They will be also specified at the industry level describing production, demand and price shifts.

WP5 will also develop a bottom-up analysis, spatially referenced, investigating the potential welfare consequences of climate change impacts on the food system in SSA through its stresses on the livestock sector.

WP6 – Case studies

Define environmental and socio-economic conditions of 9 different SSA regions located along a wide climate gradient (Ghana, Burkina Faso, Togo, Malawi, Rep. of Congo, Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania).The studies carried out in these regions will provide field data to other WPs for empirical model and mechanistic model development.In addition, the synergies developed with the existing actors (managers and policy-makers, NGO’s, local farmer’s organizations, women’s associations, etc.) during these studies will allow to test and validate both the individual model outputs and the Medium Term Warning System in these regions

Expected results

1. Improvement of climate predictions in Africa2. Evaluation of climate impacts on water resources

and agriculture3. Development of new adaptation strategies suited for

Africa4. Assessment of economic implications of climate

change impacts and adaptation5. Creation of an operational medium term monitoring

and a forecasting warning system

Thanks

stefano.materia@cmcc.it

10/23/12

Examples of services for the agriculture sector

E-Estimation of crop yield annual changes F-Fire risk predictions W-Water balance C-Change in forests stocks L-Land capability and sustainability analysis [-Change in forests stocks and sequestration capacity I-Impacts of sea-level rise on agriculture/ecosystems W-Water/air quality analysis A-Analysis of socio-economic scenarios --Adaptation to climate change monitoring and evaluation --Climate proof flood risk management

Autumn 2012 predictions: Precipitation anomalies

Precipitation anomalies for Oct-Nov-Dec 2012:

This figure shows the precipitation anomalies: the difference between the predicted precipitations and the long term average.Brownish areas are expected to be drier than normal, while blue regions are expected to be wetter than normal.

The figure below shows the probability that the anomalies predicted above will occur. Cold colours show areas with high probability of precipitations above average. Warm colours show areas with high probability of precipitations below average.