click to edit master title style the future of economic ......click to edit master title style •...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Click to edit Master title style The Future of Economic ......Click to edit Master title style • Founded 2005 • Has served 40+ Clients • 4 full-time staff + strategic partners](https://reader036.vdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022070911/5fb2cc02b3cdc4639a644b84/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Click to edit Master title style The Future of Economic Development
& Best Practices
24th Pinal County Town Hall
Presentation October 12, 2011
Chris Engle, Vice President & Chief Analyst
Avalanche Consulting
512-695-0100
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• Founded 2005 • Has served 40+ Clients • 4 full-time staff + strategic
partners • Previously 10 years at other
consulting firms • Two Focus Areas:
• Economic Development • Workforce Development
About Avalanche Consulting
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Click to edit Master title style
The Economy Today
Facing a Crisis of Confidence?
Future Drivers
ED Best Practices
Actions for Central Arizona
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style PERSPECTIVE IS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT NOW
GLOBAL ECONOMY AND FORCES OF CHANGE
What is happening to …
MY TARGET CUSTOMERS & THEIR
NEEDS
PRIORITIES OF MY ORGANIZATION
(Incl. politics)
“Permanent Repeat”
(and myself)
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Click to edit Master title style US STOCK MARKET FLAT DECADE
11,500
2000 2005 2010
Dow Jones
An “Opportunity” Barometer?…but Unclear future…
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Click to edit Master title style What Does Zero Return Mean to YPs and Retirees?
162%
36% 15%
173%
310%
-5% -50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
1950's 1960's 1970's 1980's 1990's 2000's
TOTAL STOCK MARKET RETURNS BY DECADE
Dow Jones Return
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Click to edit Master title style Venture Capital Returns Have Been Negative
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Click to edit Master title style No More 10%+ Annual Returns to Net Worth
Source: Federal Reserve
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Click to edit Master title style Unlikely Rebound for Manufacturing Employment
Source: BLS
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Federal Reserve Bank Dallas
4313
811
108
1011
166
1688
24+
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Aug'29…May'37…Feb'45…Nov'48…
Jul'53…Aug'57…Apr'60…Dec'69…Nov'73…Jan'80…Jul'81…Jul'90…
Mar'01…Dec'07…
LONGEST RECESSION SINCE THE 30’s
Months In Recession
30
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What are the Drivers of
Future Growth?
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style What New Factors/Investment Will Propel Us?
POST WAR
MIDDLE CLASS SUBURBS
GLOBALIZATION
COMPUTERS
INTERNET
?????
1950’s 1960’s 1990’s 2000’s 2010’s 1970’s 1980’s
FINANCE
What’s the next BOOST ? What will be the STORY of 2010’s ? 2020s ?
HOUSING
CHINA
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Click to edit Master title style Prospect Activity by Industry 1H vs. Previous
Source: Avalanche Consulting survey of 150 EDCs in US (August, 2011)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct '09 Jan '10 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
Leads
Relocation Prospects
Prospect Visits
Expansion Prospects
Announcements
% of respondents
indicating an
INCREASE in
activity...
Prospect Activity: Percent Saying Increased Over Previous Half
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Click to edit Master title style Prospect Activity by Industry 1H vs. Previous
Source: Avalanche Consulting survey of 150 EDCs in US (August, 2011)
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct '09 Jan '10 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
Leads
Relocation Prospects
Prospect Visits
Expansion Prospects
Announcements
% of respondents
indicating activity
WILL INCREASE in
the next half...
Prospect Activity: Percent Saying Will Increase Next 6 Months
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0% say Federal Policies are Good
Prospect Activity by Industry 1H vs. Previous
Source: Avalanche Consulting survey of 150 EDCs in US (August, 2011)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct '09 Jan '10 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
National Economy
Your State Economy
Your Community's Economy
Perception of Current Economy: Percent Saying Economy is Good or Very Good is Poor or Very Poor
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct '09 Jan '10 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Oct '09 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
Federal government
Your State government
Your Local government
Current Economic Policies are... Good Poor
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Oct '09 July '10 Jan '11 Aug '11
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Click to edit Master title style Best Prospects Identified Last Year by EDers
Source: Avalanche Consulting survey of 150 EDCs in US (August, 2011)
Clean Energy 76% 81%
Manufacturing 70 51
Energy 67 64
Health Care Services 63 45
Food Processing 49 32
Distribution / Warehousing 46 27
Back Office / Call Centers 45 52
Metals / Machining 43 23
Technology Services / Software 43 34
R&D 38 36
Medical Products 35 25
Biotechnology / Pharmaceuticals 32 33
Engineering / Professional Services 32 25
Financial Services 31 25
Transportation Equipment 24 20
Plastics 23 10
Industrial Machinery 18 14
July-2010 Q4-2009
Economic Developers Say much has Improved (Prospect Activity For Relocations & Expansions)
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What Is Working in ED ?
Best Practices
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style Be Honest in your SWOT
Summarize Community Assessment Findings in a SWOT Analysis
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Click to edit Master title style Be Honest in your SWOT
Summarize Community Assessment Findings in a SWOT Analysis
Get input from: citizens, businesses (large and small), political leadership (their vision), and outside site selectors
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Click to edit Master title style Use a simple SWOT MATRIX
STRENGTHS • Leading industries • Key, unique assets • Lifestyle draws
WEAKNESSES • Infrastructure gaps • Education gaps
OPPORTUNITIES • Emerging sectors • Investment plans • Changing regional/global
dynamics in your favor •New partnerships •New goals for your organization
THREATS •What your competitors are doing
better • Changing site selection requirements • Local industries in decline (offshoring
threats)
INTE
RN
AL
EXTE
RN
AL
Filling this out in a board retreat gets everyone on the same page.
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Click to edit Master title style Inventory Your Soft and Hard Assets
• How assets connect and reinforce each other are is important than quantity of X, Y, Z
• Think in terms of Community Competencies: the intersection of skills, infrastructure, corporate expertise, etc.
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Click to edit Master title style Target Specificity to the Extreme
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What are Your Top Targets?
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style Employment Growth, Pinal County
• Low job creation relative to your population growth
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Click to edit Master title style
What are Your Top Targets?
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style Unemployment Rate, CAAG Region
Historically above the US average, but much more so during this recession.
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Click to edit Master title style Industry Growth
Gila County
2000-2010
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Click to edit Master title style Industry Growth
Gila County
2000-2010
Source: BLS
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Click to edit Master title style CHINA EFFECT ON GLOBAL DEMAND
Impact on: • US Technology Exports
• Materials / Energy Prices
• Foreign Students
• Chinese Acquisitions of US firms
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Click to edit Master title style ENTREPRENEUR JOB GROWTH IS STRONG
Jobs created by unincorporated entrepreneurs grew 3x faster than “corporate” economy in 2000s – and consistently.
Texas
Self-Employment Job Growth
Corporate Economy
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Click to edit Master title style
More Best Practices
for Central Arizona to Consider
AGENDA
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Click to edit Master title style Emphasize Outcomes over Output
• Membership Fees
• Fundraising
• Professional Team
• Engaged Stakeholders
• Community Support
Develop Resources
• Improve Community Assets
• Align Workforce Skills
• Enhance Quality of Life
• Rally Internal Support
• Market
Take Action • Job Creation
• Capital Investment
• Increased Wages
• Talent Recruitment, Retention
• Entrepreneurship, Innovation
Accomplish Goals
Output
Outcome
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Click to edit Master title style Don’t Underestimate the Value of a Plan
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Click to edit Master title style METRICS TO MONITOR
Economic Development
Performance is measured for the Organization and Regional Economy:
• New jobs created in the region’s target clusters
• New $$ capital investment
• New High-Paying Jobs
• Startup Growth
• Income levels / Wealth
Workforce Development
Participants Served
Placed in Jobs
Job Retention
Wage Gain
Replacement wages
Resources Leveraged
Other impacts
Economic Impacts
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Click to edit Master title style Marketing Should State Your Case
Jobs created by unincorporated entrepreneurs grew 3x faster than “corporate” economy in 2000s – and consistently.
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Click to edit Master title style Regionalism Delivers Best ROI on Public Dollars
Marketing requires a regional brand. The needs of your customer should come first, not your funders.
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Click to edit Master title style A Strategy in a Day
A plan can be developed over several months, or internally with your board. Gathering public input and research, then facilitating an informed board retreat with clear target audiences in mind is a simple format for strategic planning. A sample board retreat agenda is provided here.
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Click to edit Master title style Create a Detailed Implementation Plan
Recommendation Cost Assignment Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
1. Internal MarketingP Develop regional brand identity, logo $25,000 EDO, Chamber n
P Reception to launch new marketing campaign $1,000 EDO n
P Press conference to launch new marketing campagin $500 EDO, Executives n
P Radio and television PSAs about eco dev $7,500 EDO, Agency n n
P State of the Region business summit $10,000 EDO, Chambers, Newspaper n n n
Economic development related op-ed pieces - EDO Board n
Quarterly Coffee and Conversations $500 Chamber n n
Weekly business profile in local paper(s) - Newspaper, Executives n n
Hire full time BRE manager $55,000 Chamber n n
2. External Marketing
Tool Development
P Target company database - EDO Staff, Agency n
P Redesign sales materials with new logo $15,000 Agency, EDO n
P Social media $2,000 EDO Staff, Agency n n n
P Website updates $5,000 EDO Staff n n n
Direct Sales
Commercial real estate tour $3,500 n n n
In-bound site selection / investment forum $10,000 n n
Marketing missions $30,000 n n
Sample format for an implementation timeline, with tactical steps corresponding to the Plan, budget, assignments, and schedule all indicated in one spreadsheet:
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Click to edit Master title style Get ED & WD to Collaborate in Meaningful Ways
• Reciprocal Board and Committee Engagement
• Networking and Connections
• Partner on Prospecting
• Partner on Program Development
• Partner on Fundraising
• Best Practices from National Communities
• Reciprocal Advocacy
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Click to edit Master title style Example: www.RuralCapitalHeadlight.com
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Click to edit Master title style FINAL 3 THOUGHTS 1. Your job
description continues to grow– don’t fear this !
THIS WAY TO OPPORTUNITY
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Click to edit Master title style FINAL 3 THOUGHTS 2. Differentiate between your Vision and your
Implementation Plan
• Don’t try to do too much
• Or Promise too Much !
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Click to edit Master title style FINAL 3 THOUGHTS
3. Get your workforce aligned with your economy
• Encourage youth to pursue high demand careers
• Continue to encourage better and higher education
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Click to edit Master title style Education Pays Off More in Later Years
Source: US data from the US BLS
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Click to edit Master title style The Future of Economic Development
& Best Practices
24th Pinal County Town Hall
Presentation October 12, 2011
Chris Engle, Vice President & Chief Analyst
Avalanche Consulting
512-695-0100