Clear SightedTransparency

Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

cochrane.org.ukca-global.org

Thursday, 5 July 12

Some things are inherently complex... ...and some things are made complex by us!

Thursday, 5 July 12

Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!

Thursday, 5 July 12

Networks of all kinds naturally exhibit complexity ...of interaction, behaviours and outcomes!

Interconnection of yeast proteins

Thursday, 5 July 12

Complexity rapidly leads to non-linearity... ...with emergent behaviours...and we have

no real idea what is going to happen!

Thursday, 5 July 12

Thursday, 5 July 12

We have no generalised math framework for dealing with non-linearity...and it may be

fundamentally beyond our capacity!

Thursday, 5 July 12

Our systems and networks will increasingly surprise us if we

continue on the current trajectory !

Thursday, 5 July 12

Although we fully understand layered complexity does not solve the problem, we mostly continue to build more layers in the hope that it might...

Thursday, 5 July 12

Axiom: We are building a global nightmare of over-complex systems at a computing, networking, fixed,

mobile, machine and human level !

Thursday, 5 July 12

Economic and trading markets are prime examples of uncontrolled and misunderstood complexity!

Thursday, 5 July 12

This is not ‘rocket science’, but it is complexity compounded by greed.......

Thursday, 5 July 12

Digital Failures

•Always abrupt•Mostly avoidable•Often caused by people•Unanticipated mechanisms•Increasingly life threatening•Dominantly very expensive•Reputationally damaging/fatal

Thursday, 5 July 12

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Thursday, 5 July 12

Strange attractors that bring down networks today... .....and tomorrow...

Thursday, 5 July 12

Strange attractors that bring down networks today... .....and tomorrow...

Thursday, 5 July 12

Strange attractors that bring down networks today... ..and tomorrow...

Thursday, 5 July 12

Dumbindustry

solutions like MPLS,

FTTC, +++are a result

of unthinking short termism

Thursday, 5 July 12

Confusion is rife, complexity growing, and a wireless future can’t do it all...

.. everyone of these needs a transparent optical fibre connection

Thursday, 5 July 12

If we started from a clean sheet:- 180km between repeaters not 40km- 30k people instead of 160k- 60 switches not 7000- Gbit/s not Mbit/s

Thursday, 5 July 12

Fibre rich networks instead of fibre sparse - no TPON, GPON, BPON, XPON...- PONS made sense when fibre was 30p/m- But now it is 1p/m they are irrelevant and far too complex- They are also bandwidth limiting- A ‘dog’ to manage- And reduce reliability

Thursday, 5 July 12

By the same token say goodbye to blown fibre...

Thursday, 5 July 12

WDMA instead of TDMA...

...amplification instead of regeneration...

Thursday, 5 July 12

IP over WDM...Ethernet...

Thursday, 5 July 12

Remove coding to reduce latency, lower cost, improve reliability and improve performance...

- Compressing signals to save bandwidth is old thinking- Bandwidth is cheap and near infinite- Coding is expensive

Thursday, 5 July 12

We have to leave this legacy behind...Thursday, 5 July 12

We need to push complexity to the periphery and keep the network ‘essentially simple’...

Thursday, 5 July 12

If we do not, this world will not be realised in the way we would like!

Thursday, 5 July 12

We can only......what the future holds...

Thursday, 5 July 12

But we do know it will be mobile and it will eat bandwidth, lots of bandwidth...

A transition of < 70 years

Thursday, 5 July 12

IP over WDM...Ethernet...

The expectation is anything and everything, anytime, anywhere, any format...instantaneously!

Thursday, 5 July 12

And this has to be global......to be reliable and resilient, it will also be relatively dumb !

Thursday, 5 July 12

Thank Youwww.cochrane.org.uk

Thursday, 5 July 12