cleantech to market - haas-berkeley market... · cleantech to market ... hydrogen-bromine flow...

Cleantech to MarketSample Market Reports – Table of Contents Index

Artificial Photosynthesis .................................................................................................................... 1

Carbon Capture in Coal Plants .......................................................................................................... 5

Carbon Nanofiber Supercapacitator .................................................................................................. 9

Carbon Sequestration and the Potential of Mineralization Technologies .................................. 13

Electrochromic Coatings for Dynamic Control ............................................................................. 18

Home Energy Saver .......................................................................................................................... 22

Hydrogen From Water ...................................................................................................................... 25

Hydrogen-Bromine Flow Battery .................................................................................................. 30

Market Opportunities for Thermoelectrics .................................................................................... 34

Optimized Feedstock for Bioenergy and Biochemical Applications ......................................... 38

Residential Integrated Ventilation Control (RIVEC) ................................................................... 42

Responsive Thermal Storage ........................................................................................................... 47

User Facility for Net-Zero and Low-Energy Integrated Building Systems ............................... 51

CLEANTECH TO MARKET – BERKELEY-HAAS

ARTIFICIAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS

Final Market Report

Luc- Emmanuel Barreau, MBA 2012

Timothy Kelly, JD 2011

Wesley Chen, MS Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering 2011

Ismael Ghozael, MBA 2012

This market report is a semester long market assessment of an early stage technology developed by the Joint Center for Artificial Photosynthesis.

Table of Contents

Abbreviations and Notations .....................................................................................................1

Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................2

Introduction ............................................................................................................................3

The Problem .......................................................................................................................3

The Central Triple Challenge .........................................................................................3

The Added Need for Energy Storage and Liquid Fuel ..................................................4

Artificial Photosynthesis .....................................................................................................4

JCAP ...................................................................................................................................4

Project Approach .......................................................................................................................5

Market Analysis – Hydrogen .....................................................................................................6

Hydrogen Market ...................................................................................................................6

Oil Refining .......................................................................................................................8

Ammonia Industry .............................................................................................................9

Methanol Industry ..............................................................................................................9

Chemical and Pharmaceutical Industry .............................................................................9

Glass / Quartz Manufacturing ..........................................................................................10

Metallurgy Industry .........................................................................................................10

Other Industries ................................................................................................................10

Hydrogen Production ...........................................................................................................11

Steam Methane Reforming ..............................................................................................12

Electrolysis – from Grid...................................................................................................13

Electrolysis – with Renewable Energy ............................................................................13

Wind Energy ................................................................................................................13

Solar Energy.................................................................................................................14

Summary of Production Costs ..........................................................................................15

Hydrogen Distribution .........................................................................................................16

Pipeline Delivery .............................................................................................................16

Liquid Hydrogen Delivery ...............................................................................................17

Compressed Hydrogen Delivery ......................................................................................17

Overview of Distribution Costs .......................................................................................18

Total Hydrogen Costs Analysis ...........................................................................................19

Target Hydrogen Market ......................................................................................................20

Market Analysis – Oxygen ......................................................................................................21

Oxygen as a Primary Product ..............................................................................................21

Oxygen as a By-Product of Hydrogen .................................................................................21

Methanol ..................................................................................................................................22

Methanol Market ..................................................................................................................22

Why Methanol .................................................................................................................22

Methanol Market and Methanol Use ...............................................................................22

Methanol Market and Drivers ..........................................................................................23

Methanol Production Costs ..................................................................................................23

Methanol Production Process ..........................................................................................23

Methanol Production Landscape in the US .....................................................................24

Methanol Production Cost Breakdown ............................................................................25

Methanol Distribution Cost .................................................................................................25

Methanol Storage .............................................................................................................25

Methanol Distribution Modes ..........................................................................................26

Methanol Total Cost Breakdown and Analysis of H2 Cost Target .....................................28

Conclusion – Methanol Target Market ....................................................................................30

Stepping-Stones for Artificial Photosynthesis .........................................................................31

Sources .................................................................................................................................32

List of Interviews Conducted ......................................................................................34

Exhibits:

LBNL Organizational Chart ...................................................................................................35

Production Plants in the US ....................................................................................................36

Hydrogen Pipeline in the U.S. – 2008 ....................................................................................36

Total Costs of Hydrogen for Five Different Paths to Market .................................................37

Sensitivity of $/kg of Hydrogen Transportation Costs to Mileage .........................................37

Estimate the Market Size of Distributed Hydrogen Produced by Electrolysis .......................37

Estimate of 2010 Tube Trailer and Liquid Bulk US Markets Sizes .......................................38

Production Plants in the US ....................................................................................................38

Conventional Methanol Production Process ...........................................................................39

Storage Capacity in US ...........................................................................................................39

Methanol Import in US 2002 – 2010 ......................................................................................40

Methanol Commodity and Methanol Retail ...........................................................................40

Typical Composition of Natural Gas ......................................................................................40

Tables:

Table 1: World and Regional Hydrogen Demand by Freedonia Group .................................10

Table 2: Estimated Hydrogen Production Costs .....................................................................15

Table 3: Hydrogen Distribution Costs ....................................................................................21

Figures:

Figure 1: Hydrogen Market Segments 2002 ............................................................................11

Figure 2: US Production Capacity ...........................................................................................14

Figure 3: Comparison of Production Costs of Main Technologies .........................................18

Figure 4: Electrolysis Feedstock Costs ....................................................................................18

Figure 5: Industries by Consumption Reuse ...........................................................................21

Figure 6: Map of 100km Distribution Around Production Sites .............................................22

Figure 7: Production, Distribution, and Storage Costs per Method .........................................23

Figure 8: Large Production Site in Leuna – 1924 ....................................................................26

Figure 9: Methanol Production Process ...................................................................................27

Figure 10: Methanol Production Cost Breakdown ..................................................................28

Figure 11: Major Methanol Storage Points in US ...................................................................29

Figure 12: Transportation Markup in Percentage of Spot Price of Methanol Delivered in

Texas ........................................................................................................................................30

Figure 13: Methanol Price Break Down ..................................................................................32

Figure 14: What Cost of H2 to Enter the Methanol Market ....................................................32

Figure 15: Sensitivity to Electricity Costs ...............................................................................34

CLEANTECH TO MARKET

Carbon Capture in Coal Plants

Market Assessment Report Presented to Dr. Shih‐Ger (Ted) Chang and Technology Transfer at

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Chris Anderson, MBA 2012

Eamonn Courtney, MBA 2012 Andrew Hamilton, MBA 2012

Neha Mehtam, MS Chemical Engineering 2011

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................1

List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................2

The Challenge ...........................................................................................................................3

Global CO2 Emissions – A 30 Gt and Growing Problem ....................................................3

Analyzing Key Sources of CO2 Emissions ..........................................................................5

LBNL’s Solution Presents Potential Breakthrough Technology ..............................................7

LBNL’s Innovation ...............................................................................................................8

Innovation 1 ......................................................................................................................8

Innovation 2 ......................................................................................................................8

Competitive Landscape .........................................................................................................9

Nascent Competitors ............................................................................................................9

Mature Competitors ..............................................................................................................9

Market Opportunity .................................................................................................................11

Making Carbon Capture and Sequestration Economical .....................................................11

Initial Phases of LBNL Technology Development Should Focus on the U.S. ....................15

Government Capital ........................................................................................................15

Private Capital .................................................................................................................16

Intellectual Property ........................................................................................................16

Carbon Capture Retrofit Opportunities in the U.S. ..............................................................16

Profiling Progressive Utility Coal Players ...........................................................................17

Duke Energy ...................................................................................................................18

American Electric Power ................................................................................................18

Southern Company ..........................................................................................................18

Smaller Utilities ..............................................................................................................18

Profiling Power Plant Engineering Players ............................................................................19

Alstom .............................................................................................................................19

Siemens Energy ..............................................................................................................19

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ...........................................................................................19

Existing Carbon Capture Projects ........................................................................................20

Industrial CO2 Users Can Help Bridge Economic Gap ...........................................................20

EOR Operators Represent Most Promising Industrial Partner ............................................21

Limited Opportunity in Other Industrial CO2 Markets .......................................................24

Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................24

Appendices

Appendix A: Overview of CCS Technologies .........................................................................25

Appendix B: Amine-Based Chemical Absorption Process .....................................................26

Appendix C: LBNL Laboratory Results [graphs redacted] ....................................................27

Appendix D: Parasitic Energy Calculations ............................................................................27

Appendix E: Key Partners for Post Combustion Chemical Absorption-Based Process ..........28

Appendix F: Additional Figures of Merit for Industrial User Markets ...................................29

Appendix G: Due Diligence Contacts......................................................................................30

Figures

Figure 1: Forecasted Global Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions by Fuel Source ...........................3

Figure 2: 450 ppm Scenario – Targeted CO2 Emissions Reduction by Method .......................4

Figure 3: Marginal Cost of CO2 Abatement in 2050 ................................................................6

Figure 4: Worldwide CO2 Emissions by Source Type ..............................................................6

Figure 5: Worldwide Stationary Sources of CO2 as of 2002 ...................................................7

Figure 6: Schematic Process Flow Diagram of LBNL Technology ..........................................8

Figure 7: Parasitic Energy Loss Across Various Competitors .................................................10

Figure 8: Cost of Solvent for Amine-Based Process ...............................................................10

Figure 9: Regeneration Rates Comparison with Benchmark Process .....................................11

Figure 10: CCS Project Cost Breakdown – Market Opportunities ..........................................12

Figure 11: CCS Project Cost Breakdown – Carbon Capture and Storage ...............................12

Figure 12: Sample CCS Cost Estimates...................................................................................13

Figure 13: CCS Cost Calculation .............................................................................................14

Figure 14: US Coal Electric Generation Capacity and Electricity Generated .........................15

Figure 15: Coal-fired Generation Retrofit Opportunities ........................................................17

Figure 16: Sample U.S. Electric Utilities with Coal-fired Generation ....................................17

Figure 17: Alstom Chilled Ammonia Cost Summary ..............................................................20

Figure 18: Analysis of Major CO2 Customers by Industry .....................................................21

Figure 19: Snapshot of CO2-EOR Projects in United States in 2008......................................22

Figure 20: Growth of CO2-EOR Production by Region .........................................................22

Figure 21: Major US CO2-EOR Operators .............................................................................23

Figure 22: Three Main Research Pathways for Capturing CO2 ..............................................25

Figure 23: MEA Process Schematic Diagram .........................................................................26

Figure 24: Regeneration Temperature for LBNL’s Process redacted .....................................27

Figure 25: Reaction Rates for Amine-Based Solvents redacted .............................................27

Figure 26: Anticipated Demand and Possible Revenues from Various CO2 Markets ............29

Figure 27: EOR Markets Sorted by Potential Total Size .........................................................29

CARBONNANOFIBERSUPERCAPACITOR

Cleantech to Market: Market Research Report

Steve Miller, MBA 2011

Gabe Schwartz, MBA 2011

Rebekah Shirley, MS, ERG 2011

Joe Wofford, PhD, Materials Science 2011

Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 1

Market Trends ............................................................................................................................... 1

Higher Functionality ................................................................................................................. 1

Going Green .............................................................................................................................. 1

Economic Development ............................................................................................................ 2

Supercapacitor Advantages ........................................................................................................... 2

Bridging the Gap ....................................................................................................................... 3

Detailed Battery Comparison ..................................................................................................... 4

Barrier to Adoption: Cost .............................................................................................................. 6

Technology Overview .................................................................................................................... 7

Current Supercapacitor Industry Standard ................................................................................. 7

Nickel Foam Templated Carbon Nanofiber Supercapacitor Electrodes .................................... 8

Carbon Nanotubes/Nanofibers ............................................................................................... 8

Templated Carbon ................................................................................................................. 9

Value Proposition .......................................................................................................................... 9

Increased Performance ............................................................................................................ 10

Different Cost Structure .......................................................................................................... 11

Cost Breakdown ........................................................................................................................... 11

Market Landscape ....................................................................................................................... 13

Consumer Electronics Market ...................................................................................................... 13

Market Size ............................................................................................................................. 13

Market Overview ..................................................................................................................... 14

Example Applications ............................................................................................................. 14

Market Drivers and Restraints ................................................................................................ 14

Competitive Overview ............................................................................................................. 15

Industrial Market .......................................................................................................................... 15

Market Size ............................................................................................................................. 15

Market Overview ..................................................................................................................... 15




Transportation Market ................................................................................................................. 17

Market Size ............................................................................................................................. 17

Market Overview ..................................................................................................................... 17




Competitive Landscape ................................................................................................................ 19

Key Incumbents ........................................................................................................................... 21

Key Start-Ups .............................................................................................................................. 22

Value Chain ................................................................................................................................ 22

Target Markets ............................................................................................................................ 23

Specific Adoption Considerations of Market Applications ..................................................... 23

Consumer Electronics .............................................................................................................. 24

Power/Grid Applications ........................................................................................................ 25

Transportation and Industrial Applications ............................................................................ 26

Mission Critical Applications ................................................................................................. 27

Most Appropriate Applications ............................................................................................... 28

Potential Paths to Market ............................................................................................................ 29

Providing Complementary Value ........................................................................................... 29

Broader Market Applications ................................................................................................... 29

Capacitive Water Deionization ............................................................................................... 30

Catalyst Support ....................................................................................................................... 30

Hydrogen Storage ................................................................................................................... 31

Conclusion/Next Steps ................................................................................................................. 31

Tables

Table 1: Major Advantages and Challenges of Supercapacitors .................................................. 3

Table 2: Key Metrics for Commercial Supercapacitors and Batteries .......................................... 5

Table 3: Current Industry Standards for Electrodes, Electrolytes, and Separators ....................... 8

Table 4: Constitutive Elements of Industry Standard Electrode and CNF Electrode ................. 11

Table 5: Material Costs ............................................................................................................... 12

Table 6: Consumer Electronics Market Example Applications .................................................. 14

Table 7: Consumer Electronics Market Drivers and Restraints .................................................. 14

Table 8: Industrial Market Example Applications ...................................................................... 16

Table 9: Industrial Market Drivers and Restraints ...................................................................... 16

Table 10: Transportation Market Example Applications ............................................................ 18

Table 11: Transportation Market Drivers and Restraints ........................................................... 18

Table 12: Key Incumbants .......................................................................................................... 21

Table 13: Key Start-Ups ............................................................................................................. 22

Table 14: Target Markets and Primary Adoption Considerations .............................................. 24

Figures

Figure 1: Ragone Chart: Relationship between Batteries and Capacitors ..................................... 4

Figure 2: Cost Per Farad Progression and Breakdown ................................................................. 7

Figure 3: Supercapacitor Compositions ...................................................................................... 10

Figure 4: Cost Comparison: Maxwell vs Our Technology ......................................................... 12

Figure 5: Consumer Electronics Supercapacitor Market ............................................................ 15

Figure 6: Industrial Supercapacitor Market ................................................................................ 17

Figure 7: Transportation Supercapacitor Market ........................................................................ 18

Figure 8: Market Application Focus ............................................................................................ 19

Figure 9: Total Supercapacitor Market ........................................................................................ 20

Figure 10: Supercapacitor Value Chain ....................................................................................... 23

Figure 11: Ease of Entry and Alignment with Market Requirements ........................................ 28

Figure 12: Schematic View of Ion Separation In Membrane Capacitive Deionization .............. 30

Figure 13: Power Versus Energy Density .................................................................................... 32

Cleantech to Market | Carbon Sequestration and the Potential of Mineralization Technologies | Final Report 0

Carbon Sequestration and the Potential of Mineralization Technologies

Cleantech to Market Final Report

Carbon Sequestration Team:

Antoine Queval, MS Chemical Engineering 2011

Edward Lee, MBA 2012

Mike Perez, JD 2012

Stephanie Greene, MBA 2012

Table of Contents

Notice and Disclaimer ............................................................................................................... 1

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. 2

Carbon Capture and Storage Landscape ................................................................................... 6

Importance of CCS and Carbon Sequestration ..................................................................... 6

Analysis of Technology ............................................................................................................ 9

Peptiod Platform Technology ............................................................................................... 9

Specific Application: Catalyst for Carbon Mineralization ................................................... 9

Key Features ....................................................................................................................... 10

Key Unknowns .................................................................................................................... 10

Known Challenges .............................................................................................................. 10

CO2 Balance of the Overall Process ................................................................................... 10

Summary: Technology Assessment of Peptiod Technology .............................................. 11

The Market for Carbon Mineralization Technology ............................................................... 13

Above Ground: Alternative to Geologic Sequestration ...................................................... 13

Bypass Carbon Capture ................................................................................................... 13

Key Players/ Our Customers ....................................................................................... 14

Current Technologies .................................................................................................. 14

Our Value Proposition ................................................................................................ 14

Key Challenges and Dependencies ............................................................................. 14

Use Calcium Carbonate Output ...................................................................................... 15

Key Players/ Our Customers ....................................................................................... 15




Below-Ground: Complement Geologic Sequestration ....................................................... 16




Calcium Carbonate Markets ................................................................................................... 18

Potential Markets ................................................................................................................ 18

Cement Industry .............................................................................................................. 19

Paper and Pulp Industry .................................................................................................. 19

Iron and Steel Industry .................................................................................................... 20

Food Industry .................................................................................................................. 20

Paint and Coatings Industry ............................................................................................ 20

Plastics Industry .............................................................................................................. 21

Narrowing to Four Key Markets ......................................................................................... 21

Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 22

Competitor Analysis ............................................................................................................... 23

Competitive Landscape ....................................................................................................... 23

Overview of Key Competitors ............................................................................................ 24

Implications of Competitive Landscape for Technology .................................................... 25

Regulatory Analysis ................................................................................................................ 26

International Regulatory Frameworks ................................................................................ 26

The Kyoto Protocol ......................................................................................................... 26

Multi-National, National, and Regional Regulatory Frameworks .................................. 26

United States Regulatory Frameworks ............................................................................... 28

Federal Government ........................................................................................................ 28

State Governments .......................................................................................................... 28

Summary: Implications for Carbon Sequestration Technologies ....................................... 29

Indicative Cost Analysis ......................................................................................................... 30

Carbon Capture Analysis .................................................................................................... 30

Transportation ..................................................................................................................... 31

Geological Sequestration Cost Analysis ............................................................................. 31

Calcium Carbonate Cost Analysis ...................................................................................... 32

Comparative Cost of Calcium Carbonate on the Open Market .......................................... 34

Regulatory Sensitivity Analysis .......................................................................................... 35

Cost Analysis Summary and Conclusions .......................................................................... 36

Conclusions and Recommendations ....................................................................................... 37

Scientific Recommendations .............................................................................................. 37

Obstacles to the Current Process ..................................................................................... 37

Opportunities for Further Research ................................................................................ 37

Alkalinity and Energy Balance ................................................................................... 37

Cost Structure .............................................................................................................. 38

Selective Precipitation ................................................................................................ 38

Commercial Recommendations .......................................................................................... 38

Immediate Next-Steps Toward Commercialization ........................................................ 38

Long-Term Commercialization Strategy ........................................................................ 39

Recommended Further Reading and Contacts .................................................................... 39

Summary of Recommendations .............................................................................................. 40

Appendices

Appendix 1: Scientific Details ................................................................................................ 41

Description of the Peptoids Technology ............................................................................. 41

Key Advantages of the Peptoids Technology ..................................................................... 41

Key Success Factors in Carbon Dioxide Mineralization .................................................... 42

Appendix 2: Market Deep Dives ............................................................................................ 45

Calcium Carbonate Market Overall .................................................................................... 45

Paper and Pulp Industry ...................................................................................................... 47

Cement and the Aggregates Industry .................................................................................. 48

Paints and Coatings ............................................................................................................. 49

Appendix 3: Lists of Interviews Conducted ........................................................................... 50

Appendix 4: References .......................................................................................................... 51

Tables

Table 1: Summary of Recommendations and Next Steps ......................................................... 5

Table 2: Summary of CaCO3 Market Review ........................................................................ 19

Table 3: Summary of Potential Calcium Carbonate Markets .................................................. 22

Table 4: Cost Analysis of CO2 Capture .................................................................................. 30

Table 5: Cost Analysis of Geologic Sequestration. ................................................................. 32

Table 6: Indicative Cost Analysis of Peptoids ......................................................................... 36

Table 7: Estimated Costs of the Other (non-catalyst) Inputs ................................................... 36

Table 8: Scenario Analysis: Estimated Costs of our Technology............................................ 37

Table 9: Estimated Cost of Calcium Carbonate on the Open Market ...................................... 38

Table 10: Summary of Key Success Factors for CO2 Mineralization and Current

Characteristics of the Peptoid Technology ............................................................................. 47

Figures

Figure 1: Global Anthropogenic (Human-Caused) Greenhouse Gas Emissions ....................... 6

Figure 2: IEA Cost-Effective Climate Reduction Scenario ....................................................... 7

Figure 3: Global Emissions that are Addressable by CCS ........................................................ 8

Figure 4: Example of a Sequence-Specific Peptoid. .................................................................. 9

Figure 5: Assessment of Peptoid Technology at the Current Stage ......................................... 12

Figure 6: Total Market Size for CO2 Sequestration ................................................................ 13

Figure 7: Total Market Size for Using CaCO3 Output ............................................................ 15

Figure 8: Summary of Key Players Segmented by Process ..................................................... 23

Figure 9 Costs of CO2 Transport ............................................................................................ 31

Figure 10: Summary of Indicative CCS Cost Analysis ........................................................... 32

Figure 11: Scenario Analysis - Estimated Costs of our Technology ....................................... 34

Figure 12: Ranges of Possible Carbon Prices .......................................................................... 36

Figure 13: World Consumption of Fine-Ground and Precipitated Calcium Carbonate ......... 45

Figure 14: Market Size by Volume, Cement Industry ............................................................. 48

Electrochromic Coatings for Dynamic Control

Cleantech to Market Report

Joanna Bechtel, PhD Mechanical Engineering 2012

Kumiko Isono, MBA 2012

Sebastien Lounis, PhD Applied Science and Technology 2013

Christopher Wai, MBA 2012

Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Technology Overview ............................................................................................................... 2

Electrochromism ................................................................................................................... 3

Traditional Electrochromic Devices ...................................................................................... 3

Nanocrystal Electrochromic Films ........................................................................................ 5

Approach .................................................................................................................................... 7

Diverging and Converging ..................................................................................................... 7

Initial Market Assessment ..................................................................................................... 7

Market Opportunities ................................................................................................................. 8

Commercial Windows Market ............................................................................................... 8

Competitive Landscape ...................................................................................................... 9

Value Chain Players and Key Decision Makers .............................................................. 10

Value Proposition of our Technology .............................................................................. 11

Risks/Concerns ............................................................................................................... 12

Greenhouses ............................................................................................................................. 13

Competitive Landscape ........................................................................................................ 14

Energy Retention Systems ................................................................................................... 15

Laminated Glass with IR Films ............................................................................................... 15

Value Chain Players and Key Decision Makers ................................................................... 15

Value Proposition................................................................................................................. 17

Photosynthetic Active Radiation (PAR) .............................................................................. 17

Energy Efficiency ................................................................................................................ 18

Temperature Control ............................................................................................................ 18

Cost ...................................................................................................................................... 19

Satellites ................................................................................................................................... 19


Satellite Market Size, Key Trends, and Willingness to Pay ................................................ 20

Technology Development Path ............................................................................................ 21

Value Chain Players, Key Decision Makers, and Willingness to Pay ................................. 22

Competitive Landscape ........................................................................................................ 22

Risks ..................................................................................................................................... 23

Recommendations .................................................................................................................... 23

General Research Recommendations .................................................................................. 23

Building Windows ........................................................................................................... 24

Research Recommendations ........................................................................................ 24

Market Entry Recommendations ................................................................................. 24

Risks ............................................................................................................................. 25

Satellites ........................................................................................................................... 25

Research Recommendations ........................................................................................ 25

Market Entry Recommendations ................................................................................. 25

Timeline ....................................................................................................................... 26

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 26

Future Directions and Acknowledgements .............................................................................. 26

Appendix: Interview Notes ...................................................................................................... 28

Tables

Table 1: Comparison of LBL Nanocrystal Electrochromic Film with Traditional

Electrochromic Windows .......................................................................................................... 6

Table 2: Results of Diverge and Converge Process in Assessing Applications for NEF ......... 7

Figures

Figure 1: Breakdown of Total US Energy Consumption by Sector ........................................ 1

Figure 2: Solar Distribution Spectrum ...................................................................................... 2

Figure 3(a): Design of a Traditional Electrochromic Device .................................................... 3

Figure 3(b): Transmittance of a Traditional EC Window in Bleach (blue) and Colored (red)

State............................................................................................................................................ 3

Figure 4(a): Transmittance of Inidium Tin Oxide with Approximate Plasma Frequency

Marked in Red............................................................................................................................ 5

Figure 4(b): Transmittance of NEF in Bleached (blue) and Colored (red) States .................... 5

Figure 5: Preliminary Assessment Results ................................................................................ 8

Figure 6: Value Chain and Key Stakeholders of Commercial Window Market ..................... 11

Figure 7: Summary of NEF's Value Proposition ..................................................................... 12

Figure 8: Flat Curtain System by United Greenhouse ............................................................. 15

Figure 9: Greenhouse Value Chain .......................................................................................... 16

Figure 10: Photosynthesis Absorption Rate ............................................................................. 17

Figure 11: Large Louver Units Mounted on Multimission Modular Spacecraft ..................... 19

Figure 12(a): Schematic of the Current Louver System Technology ...................................... 20

Figure 12(b): Schematic of the Potential Future Electrochromic Technology ........................ 20

Figure 13: Satellite Technology Development Path ................................................................ 21

Table of Contents

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 2

Overview of Home Energy Saver ............................................................................................... 3

Awards and Testimonials ............................................................................................................ 5

Current State of the Market ......................................................................................................... 6

Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................... 7

Energy Assessors ................................................................................................................... 7

Energy Score Competitors ..................................................................................................... 9

The Future of the Market .......................................................................................................... 10

Home Energy Auditors ........................................................................................................ 10

Real Estate Listings .............................................................................................................. 10

Home Energy Score ............................................................................................................. 12

Utility Tools / Widgets ......................................................................................................... 14

Energy Audit and Management Software ............................................................................ 15

SWOT Analysis ........................................................................................................................ 17

Strengths ............................................................................................................................... 18

Weaknesses .......................................................................................................................... 19

Opportunities ........................................................................................................................ 20

Threats .................................................................................................................................. 20

Feedback from Current Licensees [direct quotes redacted] ..................................................... 21

Feedback from Market Players [direct quotes redacted] .......................................................... 22

What LBNL Can Do to Fit HES into the Current and Future Marketplace ............................. 24

Recommendation 1: Energy Audit and Real Estate Market Focus ...................................... 24

Recommendation 2: Structure Licenses to Meet Potential Business Models ...................... 24

Recommendation 3: Increased Outsourcing of API Management ....................................... 27

Other Recommendations ...................................................................................................... 29

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 32

Figures

Figure 1: US Energy Consumption ............................................................................................ 2

Figure 2: HES Estimate Yearly Energy Costs ........................................................................... 4

Figure 3: Awards and Testimonials for HES ............................................................................. 6

Figure 4: Competitors and Potential Partners ............................................................................ 7

Figure 5: HES Timeline ........................................................................................................... 13

Figure 6: HES Ecosystem ........................................................................................................ 14

Figure 7: Percentage of Home Energy Use .............................................................................. 16

Figure 8: SWOT Analysis ......................................................................................................... 18

Figure 9: Number of API Calls per Month and Monthly Price ............................................... 26

Figure 10: API Management .................................................................................................... 28

HydrogenfromWaterCleantechtoMarketReport

AldenWoodrow,MBA2012HannahMurnen,PhDChemicalEngineering2012IvorCastelino,MBA2011KyleSandburg,MBA2011

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1

Technology Description ............................................................................................................. 2

Hydrogen Value Chain .............................................................................................................. 3

Production .............................................................................................................................. 4

Distribution ............................................................................................................................ 4

Use ......................................................................................................................................... 5

Cost Modeling ............................................................................................................................ 6

Application Fit Analysis ............................................................................................................ 9

Competitive Landscape ............................................................................................................ 10

Overview .............................................................................................................................. 10

Value Chain Attractiveness Assessment .............................................................................. 10

Hydrogen Gas ...................................................................................................................... 11

Electrolyzer Equipment ....................................................................................................... 11

Catalyst Producer ................................................................................................................. 11

Business Models ...................................................................................................................... 11

Produce and Sell H2............................................................................................................. 12

Produce Electrolyzers .......................................................................................................... 12

Produce Catalyst .................................................................................................................. 12

License to Electrolysis Equipment Manufacturer ................................................................ 12

License to Catalyst Producer ............................................................................................... 12

External Market Forces ............................................................................................................ 13

Positive External Forces ...................................................................................................... 13

Negative External Forces ..................................................................................................... 13

Game Changing Forces ........................................................................................................ 14

Performance Targets ................................................................................................................ 14

Over Potential ...................................................................................................................... 14

Stability ................................................................................................................................ 14

Energy Generation ............................................................................................................... 14

Low pH Work ...................................................................................................................... 14

Full Cell Development ......................................................................................................... 15

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 15

Research Stages ................................................................................................................... 15

Basic Research ................................................................................................................ 15

Applied Research ............................................................................................................ 15

Prototype .......................................................................................................................... 16

Business / Market Outlook .............................................................................................. 16

Appendices

Appendix A: Illustration of Framework to Shortlist Hydrogen Use Applications ................. 17

Appendix B: Details on Hydrogen Use Applications Segments ............................................ 19

Power Plant Cooling ............................................................................................................ 19

Hydrogen Boosters for ICE Vehicles .................................................................................. 19

Energy Source: Materials Handling/ Forklifts ...................................................................... 20

Energy Source: Telecom ...................................................................................................... 20

Energy Source: FCV Refueling Stations ............................................................................. 21

Energy Source: Military ....................................................................................................... 21

Oxygen Concentrators ......................................................................................................... 21

Appendix C: Market Forces Details ........................................................................................ 22

Positive External Forces ...................................................................................................... 22

Negative External Forces ..................................................................................................... 23

Appendix D: Competitive Assessment Details ........................................................................ 24

Overview of Framework Factors ......................................................................................... 24

Hydrogen Gas ...................................................................................................................... 24

Electrolyzer Equipment ....................................................................................................... 25

Catalyst Producer ................................................................................................................. 26

Appendix E: Hydrogen Value Chain ....................................................................................... 27

Appendix F: Addressable Market Size Calculations ............................................................... 28

Appendix G: Interview List ..................................................................................................... 29

Tables

Table 1: MolyOxo Catalyst vs Standard Catalyst ..................................................................... 3

Table 2: Best Fit Applications for the Use of Hydrogen .......................................................... 9

Table 3: Assessing Market Competitiveness .......................................................................... 10

Table 4: Assessment of Potential Business Models ................................................................ 11

Figures

Figure 1: Diagram of an Electrolysis Cell ................................................................................ 2

Figure 2: Map of U.S. Hydrogen Production ............................................................................ 4

Figure 3: Hydrogen Distribution Mechanisms, Scale, and Cost ............................................... 5

Figure 4: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle ...................................................................................... 5

Figure 5: Capital Cost Breakdown of an Electrolysis Based Hydrogen Production System .... 6

Figure 6: Cost Breakdown of a Typical Electrolyzer Unit ....................................................... 6

Figure 7: Capital Cost Comparison Across Different Scales ($/kW) ....................................... 7

Figure 8: Levelized Cost of Hydrogen Production at Three Scales ($/kg) ............................... 8

Figure 9: Cost Sensitivity of Level Cost of Hydrogen Production ($/kg) ................................ 8

Figure 10: Hydrogen Market Participants ............................................................................... 10

Figure 11: Overview of the Influence of Market Forces ........................................................ 13

Figure 12: Relationship Between Thermodynamic Potential and pH for both the Cathode and

Anode ...................................................................................................................................... 15

Hydrogen-Bromine Flow Battery

Market Report

Prepared for Venkat Srinivasan Vincent Battaglia

Adam Weber

By Mason Cabot, MBA 2012 Pei-fu Hsieh, MBA 2012

Maria Schriver, PhD Mechanical Engineering, 2012 Christopher Williams, JD / MA ERG 2011

Table of Contents


Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 2

Technology Description ............................................................................................................. 3

Size ......................................................................................................................................... 4

Safety Concerns ..................................................................................................................... 5

Focus Markets ............................................................................................................................ 6

Initial Market Screens ............................................................................................................ 7

Grid Reliability ...................................................................................................................... 9

Renewables Integration ........................................................................................................ 11

Technology Targets ................................................................................................................. 11

Grid Reliability Market Targets ........................................................................................... 12

Ramp Rate ........................................................................................................................ 12

Discharge Time ................................................................................................................ 12

Power Capacity ................................................................................................................ 12

Efficiency ......................................................................................................................... 13

Lifetime ............................................................................................................................ 13

Competitors and Substitutes .................................................................................................... 14

Natural Gas Turbines ........................................................................................................... 14

Pumped Hydro ..................................................................................................................... 15

CAES ................................................................................................................................... 15

Other Batteries ..................................................................................................................... 17

Sodium Sulfur .................................................................................................................. 17

Lead Acid ......................................................................................................................... 17

Lithium-Ion ...................................................................................................................... 17

Vanadium Redox Flow .................................................................................................... 18

Flywheels ............................................................................................................................. 18

Pilot Projects ........................................................................................................................ 18

Levelized Cost of Electricity ................................................................................................... 21

Legal and Regulatory Landscape ............................................................................................. 23

Regulatory Authorities – FERC and the ISO/RTOs ............................................................ 24

Background: Historical Grid Rules for Grid Reliability Services ....................................... 24

New Grid Rules Value Storage Characteristics ................................................................... 25

PJM .................................................................................................................................. 25

ISO-NE ............................................................................................................................ 26

NYISO .......................................................................... 26

CAISO.............................................................................................................................. 26

Renewable Portfolio Standards ............................................................................................ 27

Storage Portfolio Standards ................................................................................................. 29

Analysis: Where to go to Provide Grid Reliability Services? .............................................. 29

Federal Leadership and Regulatory Convergence ............................................................... 30

Regulatory Issues Associated with Long-Term Renewable Integration .............................. 30

Reactant Toxicity, Safety and Regulations .......................................................................... 30

Testing Plan ............................................................................................................................. 31

KEMA .................................................................................................................................. 31

EPRI ..................................................................................................................................... 31

Conclusions .............................................................................................................................. 32

Appendices

Appendix 1: Definitions .......................................................................................................... 34

Appendix 2: Abbreviations ..................................................................................................... 35

Appendix 3: Modeling Tools .................................................................................................. 36

Appendix 4: Industry Association Partnerships ...................................................................... 37

Appendix 5: Notes From Interviews [redacted] ..................................................................... 39

Appendix 6: Frequency Regulation Dynamics in 4 Key ISO’s ............................................... 59

Appendix 7: End Notes ............................................................................................................ 62

Tables:

Table 1: Initial Screen Reveals Differences in SNL and EPRI Estimates ................................ 7

Table 2: Market Screen Including Non-Economic Factors ....................................................... 8

Table 3: Technical Characteristic Goals for HBr Flow Battery Based on Competing

Technologies ............................................................................................................................ 12

Table 4: Renewable Portfolio Standards in States Within the Four Researched ISOs ........... 28

Figures:

Figure 1: Schematic Diagram of HBr Flow Battery System. .................................................... 3

Figure 2: Dependence of Hydrogen Tank Volume on Storage Pressure ................................... 4

Figure 3: Dependence of Stack Area on Areal Power Density in Nafion Membrane ............... 5

Figure 4: Cycle and Hour Lifetime Requirements for a 20-year Calendar Life at Different

Capacity Factors....................................................................................................................... 13

Figure 5: Capacity Factor Influence on Levelized Cost .......................................................... 14

Figure 6: Map of Overlap Between Wind and Underground Compressed Air Storage

Resources in the United States. ................................................................................................ 16

Figure 7: Planned and Existing Storage Pilot Projects by Technology. .................................. 19

Figure 8: Key Applications of Storage Technologies .............................................................. 20

Figure 9: Levelized Cost of Electricity for Major Competitors in the Grid Reliability

Market. ..................................................................................................................................... 21

Figure 10: Levelized Cost of Electricity for Major Competitors in the Renewables

Integration Market. .................................................................................................................. 22

Figure 11: Increase in LCOE for a Given Carbon Tax for Both CAES and Natural Gas

Technologies. ........................................................................................................................... 23

Figure 12: The United States’ Major ISO/RTOs ..................................................................... 24

Market Opportunities for Solution‐Based

Hybrid Thermoelectric Materials

Cleantech to Market Program

Asher Burns‐Burg, MBA 2012 Alic Chen, PhD Mechanical Engineering 2011 Russ Griffith, MBA 2012 Tapan Patel, MS Mechanical Engineering 2011

Table of Contents


Overview of Solution-Based Hybrid Thermoelectric Technology ........................................... 2

Opportunity for Thermoelectric Technology ............................................................................ 3

Comparison Against Incumbent Thermoelectric Technology .................................................. 4

Cost Comparison to Existing Thermoelectric Technology ....................................................... 5

Market Application Selection ................................................................................................... 7

Detailed Market Descriptions ................................................................................................... 9

Smart Glass ........................................................................................................................... 9

Competitors/Alternatives .................................................................................................. 9

Market Size and Expected Growth ................................................................................... 9

Environment .................................................................................................................... 10

Complexity of Integration ............................................................................................... 10

Willingness to Pay .......................................................................................................... 10

Remote Power Generation .................................................................................................. 10

Market Size and Expected Growth ................................................................................. 11

Reasons for Growth ........................................................................................................ 11

Available Energy ............................................................................................................ 11



Wearable Electronics .......................................................................................................... 12

Market Size and Expected Growth ................................................................................. 12





Concentrated Solar PV ........................................................................................................ 13

Market Size / Growth ...................................................................................................... 13




LED Cooling ....................................................................................................................... 14

Market Size / Growth ...................................................................................................... 14





Target Market Assessment & Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................ 15

Research Recommendations ................................................................................................... 19

Path to Commercialization ...................................................................................................... 20

Appendices

Appendix 1: Cost Calculation [redacted] ................................................................................ 22

Appendix 2: Supplemental Data for Market/Sensitivity Analysis [redacted] ......................... 27

Appendix 3: Contacts & Interviews [redacted] ....................................................................... 31

Tables

Table 1: Ingredient Price and Contribution to Cost of Hybrid TE Material ............................. 6

Table 2: Detailed Analysis for Calculation of Material Costs ............................................... 22

Table 3: Price/Quantities of PEDOT:PSS ............................................................................... 24

Table 4: ICP Market by Type of Resin by Volume, Through 2013 [redacted] ...................... 25

Table 5: Balance of System & Costs [redacted] ..................................................................... 25

Table 6: Scenarios Developed for the Sensitivity Analysis [redacted] .................................. 28

Table 7: List of Contacts & Interviewees [redacted] ............................................................... 29

Figures

Figure 1: SWOT Matrix of PEDOT:PSS Coated Tellurium Nanowire Solution-Based Hybrid P-Type Thermoelectric Material ................................................................................................ 3

Figure 2: Thermoelectric Landscape Organized by Operating Temperature and Element Thickness ................................................................................................................................... 5

Figure 3: Ingredient Relative Cost Contribution for Hybrid P-Type TE Material .................... 6

Figure 4: Estimated Relative Cost Comparison Between Traditional Bismuth Telluride Thermoelectric Device and Hybrid TE Material Thermoelectric Device ................................. 7

Figure 5: List of Various Potential Markets Evaluated for the Hybrid TE Technology ............ 7

Figure 6: Mapped Applications Based on Technical and Business Risks and Market Size ...... 8

Figure 7: Technology Scenarios Chosen for the Sensitivity Analysis ..................................... 16

Figure 8: Proposed Device Concept for Printable Thermoelectric Material [redacted] .......... 16

Figure 9: Cost of Energy ($/kW-hr) as a Function of Available Energy for the Sensitivity Analysis.................................................................................................................................... 17

Figure 10: Cost of Energy ($/kW-hr) as a Function of Available Energy or ΔT (K) for the Sensitivity Analysis. ................................................................................................................ 17

Figure 11: Cooling Cost ($/W) as a Function of Power Input (W/m2) for the Hybrid TE Technology Overlaid with the LED Cooling Market Threshold. ............................................ 18

Figure 12. Prioritization of the Various Target Markets for the Hybrid TE Technology. ....... 18

Figure 13. Thermoelectrics Value Chain with Commercialization Pathways ......................... 20

Figure 14: Schematic of the Proposed Device Used in the Power Density of a Thermoelectric Device [redacted] ..................................................................................................................... 22

Figure 15: Thermoelectric Device Power Density as a Function of Element Thickness [redacted] ................................................................................................................................ 22

Figure 16: Cost of Energy as a Function of Element Thickness [redacted] ........................... 23

OptimizedFeedstockforBioenergyandBiochemicalApplications

DavidGoetz,JD2012PhuongNguyen,MSChemicalEngineering2011

PeterThompson,MBA2012DarrenWoulfe,MBA2012

Cleantech to Market | Haas School of Business

Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Technological Overview ............................................................................................................ 4

What are Biofuels ................................................................................................................. 4

Lignocellulosic Biofuels ........................................................................................................ 6

The TuLIP Platform ............................................................................................................... 9

Technology Roadmap .......................................................................................................... 11

The Biofuels Market ................................................................................................................ 12

Government Support and Regulation.................................................................................... 13

Market Risks ......................................................................................................................... 15

Biomass Derived Synthetic Chemicals (BDSC) ...................................................................... 16

Biochemicals as a Stepping Stone for Biofuels ................................................................... 18

The Cellulosic Feedstock Industry........................................................................................... 19

Value Chain ......................................................................................................................... 20

Traditional Crops vs Bioenergy Crops ................................................................................ 21

Key Players .......................................................................................................................... 22

Seed Producers: Large Agricultural Conglomerates ........................................................ 22

Seed Producers: Emerging Bioenergy Crop Makers ....................................................... 22

Farmers ............................................................................................................................ 23

Biorefineries ..................................................................................................................... 23

Market Dynamics ............................................................................................................. 24

Challenges in the Current Market Model ......................................................................... 25

Premium for Higher Quality Feedstock ....................................................................... 25

Support for GMO in Cellulosic Applications .............................................................. 26

Monetizing Perennials ................................................................................................. 26

Expected Long-Term Market Characteristics .................................................................. 27

Biorefinery-Driven Market Model ............................................................................... 28

Feedstock Industry Implications for TuLIP ..................................................................... 28


Commercialization Strategies .............................................................................................. 29

Feedstock Commercialization Strategies Specific to TuLIP ............................................... 30

Potential Value of TuLIP Licensing .................................................................................... 32

Potential License Partners .................................................................................................... 33

Outside Funding to Achieve Milestones .............................................................................. 33

Commercialization Summary – Putting it all Together ....................................................... 35

Case Study: Mendel’s Commercialization Strategy ................................................................ 37

Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 38

Tables:

Table 1: Biofuel Technologies and Companies ........................................................................ 5

Table 2: Cellulose to Fermentable Sugars ................................................................................ 8

Table 3: Feedstocks and the Number of Gallons by 2022 Expected by EPA.......................... 15

Figures:

Figure 1: US Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Gas ..................................................................... 1

Figure 2: Emission Allocated to Economic Sectors ................................................................. 1

Figure 3: Net Imports and Domestic Petroleum as Shares of US Demand, 2009 .................... 2

Figure 4: US Oil Use by Sector ................................................................................................ 2

Figure 5 Effect of Pretreatment on Lignocellulosic Feedstock ................................................ 9

Figure 6: Wild-type Pattern of Lignin Deposition .................................................................... 9

Figure 7: Reduced Lignin Plant ................................................................................................ 9

Figure 8: Developmental Timeline ......................................................................................... 11

Figure 9: Global Production of Biofuels ................................................................................. 12

Figure 10: Global Liquid Ethanol Production, Top 4 ............................................................. 12

Figure 11: Global Biodiesel Capacity, Top 4 ......................................................................... 12

Figure 12: US Alternative Fuel Mandates .............................................................................. 14

Figure 13: Projected Global Markets of Chemical Sectors: 2005, 2010, 2025 ...................... 17

Figure 14: World Platform Biorenewable Chemical Market, 2006-2010 .............................. 18

Figure 15: TuLIP Value Chain ............................................................................................... 20

Figure 16: TuLIP Process Flow Through Biorefinery ............................................................ 20

Figure 17: Higher Yields Lead to Lower Transportation Costs ............................................. 21

Figure 18: General Frameworks for Commercialization ........................................................ 29

Figure 19: TuLIP Commercialization ..................................................................................... 31

Figure 20: TuLIP Timeline ..................................................................................................... 35

Cleantech‐to‐Market

U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a , B e r k e l e y

Residential Integrated VentilationController(RIVEC)

1

This report was prepared for the Cleantech‐to‐Market (C2M) program and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). UC Berkeley Team: Adam Boscoe MBA 2012 [email protected] Alex Pederson MBA 2012 [email protected] Kelvin So PhD Electrical Engineering & Computer

Science 2014 [email protected]

Serge Stanek MBA 2012 [email protected]

Table of Contents

Introduction of Team ................................................................................................................. 1

Executive Summary: The Need for Intelligent Ventilation ....................................................... 2

Market Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 5

ASHRAE 62.2........................................................................................................................ 5

Energy Star ............................................................................................................................. 6

Two Markets Segments New Builds vs. Retrofits ................................................................. 6

Retrofits.............................................................................................................................. 7

New Builds ........................................................................................................................ 8

Valuation ........................................................................................................................... 9

Market Defined by Application ................................................................................................. 9

Market Segment Comparison .................................................................................................. 10

International Market Opportunities .......................................................................................... 10

Market Attractiveness ......................................................................................................... 10

Obstacles ............................................................................................................................. 11

Competitive Analysis ............................................................................................................... 12

Manual Controls................................................................................................................... 12

Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Controls ........................................... 13

Home Environment Controls ............................................................................................... 13

Whole-Building Fan Players ................................................................................................ 13

Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) .................................................................... 13

Product Definition .................................................................................................................... 14

Pathway to Market: Standalone Hardware or Software (“RIVEC” Inside) ......................... 15

Standalone Hardware Implementation ............................................................................ 16

Software Implementation ................................................................................................ 16

Software Option 1: Ventilation/Home Environmental Controls ................................ 17

Software Option 2: Home Energy Management Systems (HEMS) ............................ 18

Recommended Path to Market ............................................................................................ 19

Intellectual Property ................................................................................................................. 19

Value Proposition..................................................................................................................... 20

Homeowners ........................................................................................................................ 20

Home Environmental Controls Manufacturers .................................................................... 21

Homebuilders ....................................................................................................................... 21

Compliance with Building Codes ................................................................................... 22

Energy Efficient Homes .................................................................................................. 22

Utilities ................................................................................................................................. 25

Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 25

Energy Efficiency ........................................................................................................... 25

Peak Load Shifting .......................................................................................................... 26

What Will Utilities Pay For? ........................................................................................... 26

Licensing Considerations ......................................................................................................... 27

Licensing the Software ........................................................................................................ 27

Joint Venture ........................................................................................................................ 28

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 28

What Have We Learned? ..................................................................................................... 28

Next Steps ............................................................................................................................ 29

Appendices

Appendix 1: Energy Star States ............................................................................................... 31

Appendix 2: Energy Star New Home Certifications ................................................................ 32

Appendix 3: RIVEC Market Size ............................................................................................ 33

Appendix 4: HVAC Market Players ........................................................................................ 34

Appendix 5: Home Energy Management System Companies ................................................ 35

Appendix 6: Estimated Efficiency Avoided Cost .................................................................... 36

Appendix 7: Estimated Peak Load Shifting Avoided Cost ...................................................... 37

Appendix 8: Utility Rebate Estimate ....................................................................................... 38

Appendix 9: Interview List ...................................................................................................... 39

Appendix 10: Interview Notes ................................................................................................. 40

Appendix 11: Endnotes ............................................................................................................ 53

Tables

Table 1: Market Segment Comparison ................................................................................... 10

Table 2: Pros and Cons of Home Environmental Controls vs Home

Energy Management ............................................................................................................... 19

Table 3: Total Value of RIVEC to Utilities ............................................................................ 25

Table 4: Total Benefits of RIVEC to Utilities ........................................................................ 25

Figures

Figure 1: U.S. ASHRAE 62.2 Implementation in 2010 and 2013 ............................................ 5

Figure 2: U.S. Energy Star New Home Certifications 2009 ..................................................... 6

Figure 3: Average Home “Leakiness” ...................................................................................... 6

Figure 4: U.S. Monthly Housing Starts .................................................................................... 8

Figure 5: New Builds vs Retrofits in the RIVEC Market ......................................................... 8

Figure 6: New Single-Family Homes Subject to ASHRAE 62.2 by Region ............................ 9

Figure 7: Residential Floor Space Stock of Various Countries .............................................. 11

Figure 8: Home Builder Common Solutions vs RIVEC for Home Owner ............................ 12

Figure 9: Market Share of Total HVAC Market ..................................................................... 13

Figure 10: RIVEC Control Algorithm for Household Air Quality Inputs and Outputs ......... 14

Figure 11: RIVEC Algorithm Software Pathway to Market .................................................. 15

Figure 12: Standalone Hardware System ................................................................................ 16

Figure 13: Ventilation Control System ................................................................................... 17

Figure 14: Home Energy Management System ...................................................................... 18

Figure 15: Home Environment Controls vs Home Energy Management ............................... 18

Figure 16: Value Propositions for Participants ....................................................................... 20

Figure 17: Label Influence on Purchasing Decision ............................................................... 23

Figure 18: Comparison of Energy Savings for RIVEC and Efficient HVAC ......................... 24

Figure 19: Closer Look: RIVEC Value to Utilities ................................................................ 27

Figure 20: Development Timeline .......................................................................................... 30

ResponsiveThermalStorageCleantechtoMarketFinalReport

David Lewis, MBA 2012 Andrew McKibben, MBA 2012 Jay Taneja, PhD Computer Sciences 2012

Table of Contents

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Technology Overview ................................................................................................................ 2

Competitive Advantages ............................................................................................................ 5

One-Way Energy Conversion ............................................................................................... 5

Distributed Storage ............................................................................................................... 5

Scalable ................................................................................................................................. 5

Inexpensive ........................................................................................................................... 5

Long Discharge Duration ...................................................................................................... 5

Bidirectional .......................................................................................................................... 6

No Behavior or Service Change ........................................................................................... 6

Regulatory and Market Drivers ................................................................................................. 6

Renewable Portfolio Standards ............................................................................................. 6

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Proposes “Pay-for-Performance” ........................ 8

California Energy Storage Bill (AB 2514) ........................................................................... 9

Time-of-Use Rate Structures ................................................................................................ 9

Smart Meters and Home Area Networks ............................................................................ 10

Potential Applications .............................................................................................................. 12

Peak Cost Avoidance ........................................................................................................... 12

Residential Case Study ................................................................................................... 13

Commercial Case Study .................................................................................................. 15

Ancillary Services ................................................................................................................ 17

Capacity Curtailment ....................................................................................................... 19

Day Ahead Demand Response......................................................................................... 19

Load Following ................................................................................................................ 20

Non-Spinning Reserve ..................................................................................................... 21

Spinning Reserve ............................................................................................................. 22

Frequency Regulation ...................................................................................................... 22

Deployment Considerations ..................................................................................................... 25

Retrofit Versus Replace ....................................................................................................... 25

Residential Deployment Favors a Replacement Approach ............................................ 25

Commercial Deployment is Suited to a Retrofit Model ......................................................... 26

Maximizing Adoption .............................................................................................................. 27

Residential Adoption Challenges ........................................................................................ 27

Commercial Retrofits Maximize Short-term Adoption ...................................................... 30

IP Strategy ................................................................................................................................ 31

Licensing ............................................................................................................................. 32

Application Rollout .................................................................................................................. 33

Recommended Next Steps ....................................................................................................... 34

Appendices

Appendix 1: Adoption Model Assumptions ............................................................................ 36

Appendix 2: Time of Use Model Assumptions: Residential Market ...................................... 37

Appendix 3: Time of Use Model Assumptions: Commercial Market .................................... 38

Appendix 4: Interviews ............................................................................................................ 39

Tables

Table 1: E-6 TOU Rate Schedule as of May 2011, PG&E ...................................................... 13

Table 2: E-19 TOU Rate Schedule as of May 2011, PG&E .................................................... 15

Table 3: Ancillary Services Overview ..................................................................................... 18

Table 4: Frequency Regulation Capacity Requirements and Estimated Market Size,

CAISO 2009............................................................................................................................. 23

Table 5: Frequency Regulation (Up/Down) Requirements, CAISO 2009 .............................. 24

Table 6: Residential and Commercial Refrigeration Market Characteristics .......................... 25

Figures

Figure 1: Estimation of Temperature and Power for Typical Residential Refrigerator Unit .... 3

Figure 2: Estimated Temperature and Power for Augmented Residential Refrigerator Unit .... 4

Figure 3: RPS Policies in May 2011, DSIRE ............................................................................ 7

Figure 4: Regulation Effectiveness of an "Ideal Resource", Beacon Power ............................. 8

Figure 5: Advanced Meter Penetration by Sector, EIA ........................................................... 11

Figure 6: Potential Cost Savings for a Residential Customer .................................................. 14

Figure 7: Potential Cost Savings for a Commercial Customer ................................................ 17

Figure 8: Capacity Curtailment ............................................................................................... 19

Figure 9: Day Ahead Demand Response ................................................................................ 19

Figure 10: Load Following ..................................................................................................... 20

Figure 11: Load Following and Regulation ............................................................................. 21

Figure 12: Non-Spinning Reserve .......................................................................................... 21

Figure 13: Spinning Reserve ................................................................................................... 22

Figure 14: Frequency Regulation ............................................................................................ 22

Figure 15: Economic Potential (GWh) by End Use and Segment, PG&E .............................. 29

Figure 16: Estimated Market Penetration in CA – Commercial Retrofits vs. Residential

Replacements ........................................................................................................................... 31

0

User Facility for Low Energy Integrated Building Systems Cleantech to Market Final Report

For the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

C2M Team:

Philip Dawsey, MBA 2012

Andrew Krioukov, PhD Computer Science 2013

Patrick Mar, MBA 2012

Pulak Patel, MBA 2012

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 4

Project Description................................................................................................................. 4

Background ................................................................................................................................ 4

Target Market......................................................................................................................... 4

Description of LBNL Test Facility ........................................................................................ 7

Users .......................................................................................................................................... 9

Segmentation by Technology Maturity ............................................................................... 11

Segmentation by Organization Size ..................................................................................... 12

Segmentation by Technology Type ..................................................................................... 13

Case Studies ......................................................................................................................... 14

Competitors .............................................................................................................................. 15

No Facility Testing .............................................................................................................. 15

In-House Testing .................................................................................................................. 15

Other Test Facilities ............................................................................................................. 16

Fees and Revenue Structure ............................................................................................. 16

Operational Costs ............................................................................................................. 17

Lab Support ...................................................................................................................... 17

Scheduling........................................................................................................................ 18

Advisory Board ................................................................................................................ 18

Proprietary Research ........................................................................................................ 18

Differentiation from Alternatives .................................................................................... 19

Best Practices and Recommendations ............................................................................. 20

Key Findings ............................................................................................................................ 21


Technical Validation ........................................................................................................ 21

Flexibility/Integration ...................................................................................................... 22

LBNL Stamp of Approval ............................................................................................... 23

Partnerships ...................................................................................................................... 24

Testing Expertise ............................................................................................................. 25

Customer Interaction ........................................................................................................ 25

Target Customers ................................................................................................................. 26

Potential Scheduling Frameworks ....................................................................................... 28

Selection and Pricing Methodologies .................................................................................. 28


Customers ............................................................................................................................ 29

Future Facility Vision .......................................................................................................... 30

Appendices

Appendix 1: Team Bios ........................................................................................................... 33

Appendix 2: Citations and Interviewees [primary research redacted] ................................... 34

Appendix 3: Survey Data ......................................................................................................... 35

Tables

Table 1: Annual Membership Structure Based on Company Size ......................................... 16

Table 2: Annual Membership Fee Structure Based on Type of Usage ................................... 17

Table 3: Comparison of LBNL User Benefits to Other Test Facilities .................................. 19

Table 4: Level of Interest in the Value Proposition Based on Technology Lifecycle Stage .. 26

Table 5: Level of Interest in the Value Proposition Based on Product Category ................... 27

Figures

Figure 1: Commercial Buildings by Industry ........................................................................... 5

Figure 2: Growth in Energy Expenditures in US Buildings ..................................................... 5

Figure 3: Growth in Carbon Dioxide Emissions for US Commercial Buildings ..................... 6

Figure 4: Energy Use in Commercial Buildings ....................................................................... 6

Figure 5: Sources of Heating and Cooling Loads ..................................................................... 7

Figure 6: Rendering of a Single Test Bed in the LBNL Building Test Facility ....................... 8

Figure 7: Interchangeable Components Making up Each Test ................................................. 9

Figure 8: Segments Under Consideration ............................................................................... 10

Figure 9: Overview of the Technology Maturity Stages ........................................................ 11

Figure 10: Organization Size Definition ................................................................................. 12

Figure 11: Segmentation by Technology Type ....................................................................... 13

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