IEA © OECD/IEA 2017

Clean energy technologies: tracking progress

and the role of digitalization

Peter Janoska and George Kamiya, Energy Environment Division, IEA

COP23 – 16 November 2017

© IEA 2017

The IEA works around the world to support an

accelerated clean energy transitions that is

enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS

supported by ANALYSIS

and built on DATA

© IEA 2017

0

10

20

30

40

2014 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Efficiency 40%

Renewables 35%

Fuel switching 5%

Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

How far can technology take us?

Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060

could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.

Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Efficiency 40%

Renewables35%Fuel switching5%Nuclear 6%

CCS 14%

Efficiency 34%

Renewables 15%

Fuel switching 18%

Nuclear 1%

CCS 32%

Global CO2 reductions by technology area

2 degrees Scenario – 2DS

Reference Technology Scenario – RTS

Beyond 2 degrees Scenario – B2DS

0 200 400

Gt CO2 cumulative reductions in 2060

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Measuring the progress of technology for low carbon transition

Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising,

But many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential

Technology Status today against 2DS targets

●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track

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Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace?

Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS

Recent successes in solar and wind

will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Last Decade

Last year

2017-2030

2030-2060

GW per year

Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables

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: Power sector example

The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO2 per kilowatt

hour (gCO2/kWh) in 2025 and close to zero gCO2/kWh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction.

Power Generation

23%

Oil & Gas 46%

Coal 4%

Electricity Networks

14%

Energy Efficiency

12%

Thermal Power

7%

Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in

IEA scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

gCO

2/kW

h

Historic

2DS average

2DS new build

Indicators of energy system transformation

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Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Global RD&D spending plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments.

Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost.

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2015

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

Measuring long term technology development: spending on R&D

Global clean energy RD&D spending

0

10

20

30

40

2012 2021

USD

(2

01

6)

bill

ion

Private Public Top 3 firms

Mission Innovation

Mission Innovation

Top 3 IT company R&D spenders

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Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually,

coming mostly from governments.

Public and private sector invest in different type of innovation.

Public spending supports technologies that are further from the market or have high development and

demonstration costs, including nuclear, CCS and ocean energy.

Tap all the potential: Complementary public and private RD&D is needed

IEA member country spending in 2016 Venture Capital investment breakdown for 2016 Energy efficiency (except transport)

CCS

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Bioenergy

Transport

Hydro and marine

Nuclear

Hydrogen and fuel cells

Energy storage

Other

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Drivers of digitalization: data, analytics, and connectivity

Data collection, storage, and transmission costs have declined by over 90% since 2008

Sources: Based on BNEF (2017), Utilities, Smart Thermostats and the Connected Home Opportunity; Holdowsky et al. (2015), Inside the Internet of Things; IEA (2017), Renewables; Tracking Clean Energy

Progress; World Energy Investment; Navigant Research (2017), Market data: Demand Response. Global Capacity, Sites, Spending and Revenue Forecasts.

0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

2008 = 100

EV batteries

Utility-scale PV

Data storage

Internet bandwidth

Sensors

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Digitalization is impacting all energy demand and supply sectors…

Digital technologies can help improve safety, productivity, and efficiency of energy systems

© Schlumberger

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“Pre-digital” energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles,

…and fundamentally transforming the energy system

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“Pre-digital” energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles;

digital technologies enable a multi-directional and highly integrated energy system

…and fundamentally transforming the energy system

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Synergies with innovation and clean energy technologies

• Innovation

- AI, machine learning, and “digital twins” in industrial design

• Electric vehicles

- Autonomous and shared mobility: favours lower O&M costs of EVs

- Smart charging and V2G: providing grid services

• Renewable energy

- Generation and transmission: reduced costs and extended lifetimes

- Integration of variable renewables

- Digital tools can facilitate distributed energy resources, e.g. rooftop solar

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Conclusions

• Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and

technologies, but progress is too slow

• Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and

deployment support accordingly

• Energy metrics can help unpack what clean energy transition means and how it

can be measured.

• Digitalization could help in the deployment of clean energy technologies

• Policy will play a critical role in capturing opportunities of digitalization while

managing emerging risks

© IEA 2017

The IEA works around the world to support an

accelerated clean energy transitions that is

enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS

supported by ANALYSIS

and built on DATA

© IEA 2017

iea.org IEA

© IEA 2017

The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions

Globally installed non-pumped hydro

electricity storage (GW)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2016 2020 2025

GW

non-PHS Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2014 2016

GW

Globally installed electricity storage (GW)

Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage

But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.

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On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical

The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015

to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support

Global electric car fleet

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

er o

f ve

hic

les

on

th

e ro

ad

(Th

ou

san

ds)

Others

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Norway

Japan

USA

China

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Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition…

Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow

by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20.

Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

TW

h

PV

0

400

800

1 200

1 600

2 000

2 400

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

TW

h

Onshore Wind

Data Forecast Target

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The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised

Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong

push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.

Energy storage Solar PV and onshore wind

Building construction

Nuclear Transport – Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles

Lighting, appliances and building equipment

Electric vehicles

Energy-intensive industrial processes

Transport biofuels

Carbon capture and storage More efficient coal-fired power

●Not on track

●Accelerated improvement needed

●On track