Clean Air Act Section 111(d)Indiana State Bar Association

Utility Law SectionSeptember 4, 2014

Thomas W. Easterly, P.E., BCEE CommissionerIN Department of Environmental Management

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President’s Climate Directives• U.S. EPA directed to issue proposed carbon

pollution restrictions for:– New power plants by September 20, 2013, 111(b).– Existing power plants by June 1, 2014, and finalize those

restrictions by June 1, 2015, 111(d).

• States will be required to submit state plans under Section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act by June 30, 2016.

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New Source Proposal—111(b)

• In September, 2013, U.S. EPA proposed New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions for certain Electric Utility Generating Units (EGUs)—111(b).

- Combined cycle gas turbines will meet the rule.

- Coal fired units will not meet the rule without using carbon capture and storage.

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New Source Proposal—111(b)• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS):

− is not yet commercially available,−has not yet been demonstrated at

commercial scale, and−is likely to be prohibitively expensive.

• Due to the increased energy used for CCS, the net greenhouse gas emissions per unit of useful energy produced from a coal fired plant using this technology and meeting the lower emission limits will likely be no lower than emissions from a modern plant without CCS.

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Existing Source Proposal—111(d)

• In accordance with the President’s Climate Directive, on June 2, 2014, (June 1 was a Sunday) U.S. EPA Administrator McCarthy signed a proposed rule to reduce emissions from existing fossil fueled Electrical Generating Units (EGUs) starting in 2020.

• The proposed rule was actually published on June 18, 2014, at 79 FR 34829-34958. Comments are due by October 16, 2014.

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Existing Source Proposal—111(d)

Each State has an individual carbon intensity goal developed from four “Building Blocks”

1. Increase the thermal efficiency at coal fueled EGUs by 6%.

2. Increase utilization of natural gas combined cycle plants to 70%.

3. Increase zero carbon renewable generation.

4. Increase energy efficiency (load reduction).

Choice of rate based or mass based regulations.

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Existing Source Proposal—111(d) The proposed goal for Indiana is to reduce our net

emissions from the 2012 level of 1,924 lb CO2/MWh to 1,607 lb CO2/MWh for the period 2020 to 2029 and 1,531 lb CO2/MWh after 2029.

Goal is based upon:

1. Increase coal EGU efficiency by 6%.

2. Increase NGCC utilization from 53% to 70%.

3. Increase renewable energy generation to 7%.

4. Reduce energy demand by 3.2% by 2020 and 11.11% by 2030 through energy efficiency.

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Existing Source Proposal—111(d)

U.S. EPA estimates on a national level that:• Coal production will decrease 25 to 27%, and the

price of coal will decrease by 16 to 18% by 2020.• Natural gas production will increase by 12 to 14%

with a price increase of 9 to 12% by 2020.• Renewable generation capacity will increase by 12

GW, NGCC capacity will increase by 20 to 22 GW.• Coal generation capacity will decrease by 46-49

GW, and oil generation capacity by 16 GW.

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Existing Source Proposal—111(d)

• Annual incremental compliance costs of $5.5 to $7.5 billion in 2020 and $7.3 to $8.8 billion in 2030.

• Job increases of 25,900 to 28,000 in the electricity, coal and natural gas sectors by 2020.

• Job increases of 78,000 for demand-side energy efficiency by 2020.

IDEM is currently evaluating both the feasibility and estimated cost of meeting U.S. EPA’s goals.

Indiana Carbon Dioxide Emission Rates(pounds of CO2 per Megawatt Hour)

2012 Baseline U.S. EPA 2030 Goal

Indiana 2030 Estimate

1,924 1,531 1,615 to 1,683

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Impacts on Indiana• This regulation will increase the costs of

energy in the United States—both natural gas and electricity prices expected to rise by 10%--the impact on Hoosiers may be greater due to our current reliance on coal.

• The number of Hoosiers who lose utility services for non-payment is likely to increase.

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Impacts on Indiana• This increased cost of energy will likely

reduce the international competitiveness of Hoosier businesses resulting in a shift of emissions from Indiana to other countries.

• The worldwide greenhouse gas emissions may actually increase when manufacturing moves from Indiana (and the rest of the United States) to other countries.

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Climate Impacts—111(d) Proposal

This rule will have virtually no impact on modeled global climate change. It is projected to reduce:

• Global CO2 concentrations by less than 1%.

• Global average temperatures by less than 0.02o F

• Sea level increases by 0.01 inch.

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State Goals as % Reduction from 2012

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Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Percentage Change in CO2 Emissions from Utilities (2005 – 2012)

Decreasing >15%

Decreasing 0 – 15%

Increasing

No Data

Location of the State Capitals

State Boundaries 16

Questions?

Tom EasterlyCommissioner

Indiana Department of Environmental Management(317) 232-8611

teasterly@idem.IN.gov

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