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Volume 47 Number 2

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1923 BulletinHouston Geological Society

October 2004

Clastics Graphic Synthesis Model (CGSM)

October 2004 Houston Geological Society Bulletin 1

about the cover: Clastics Graphics Synthesis Model,an approach to identifying fractured reservoirs byFrank Walles

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Volume 47, Number 2 October 2004

Houston Geological SocietyBulletinThe

In Every Issue5 From the President

by Steve Levine

9 From the Editor by Arthur Berman

38 GeoEvents Calendar

71 Webnotes

72 HGA/GeoWives

73 Professional Directory

Technical Meetings15 HGS General Dinner Meeting

Paleozoic Hydrocarbon Habitat in the Arabian Plate19 International Explorationists Dinner Meeting

Shushufindi Field, Oriente Basin:Ecuador’s Giant Revisited

23 NorthSiders Dinner MeetingTectonic Setting of the World’s Giant Oil and Gas Fields

27 SIPES Luncheon MeetingUse of Well Logs in Seimic Reservoir Characterization

31 North American Explorationists Dinner MeetingGeology of the Basin-Centered Gas Accumulation,Piceance Basin, Colorado

32 Joint HGS/GSH General Luncheon MeetingThe Winds of Change: Anisotropic Rocks—TheirPreferred Direction of Fluid Flow and TheirAssociated Seismic Signatures

Other Features17 Volunteer of the Month: Bill Anderson, Library

Committee Chariman

35 A New Method to Help Identify UnconventionalTargets for Exploration and Development Through Integrative Analysis of Clastic RockProperty Fieldsby Frank Walles

51 Technofest Kickoff Ushers in Fall Seasonby Victor Schmidt

54 Chairfest 2004by James W. Granath

59 Governmental Updateby Henry M. Wise and Arlin Howles

61 Living on a Restless EarthEarth Science Week

65 4th Annual GSH/HGS Saltwater FishingTournament 2004by Robert D. Perez

68 T.C. Chamberlin’s “Method of Multiple WorkingHypotheses:” An Encapsulation for ModernStudents

page 53

page 56

page 63

page 23

page 2

Houston Geological SocietyOFFICERSStephen Levine PresidentDavid Rensink President-electKara Bennett Vice PresidentKen Nemeth TreasurerVictor Schmidt SecretaryArthur Berman Bulletin EditorJames Granath Editor-electDIRECTORSMarsha BourqueWilliam DupréElizabeth Fisher Andrea Reynolds HGS OFFICE STAFFLilly HargraveJoan HenshawDeborah Sacrey, Office Committee

ChairmanWEBMASTERDavid CraneEDITORIAL BOARDArthur Berman EditorJames Granath Editor-electElsa Kapitan-White Advisory EditorJames Ragsdale Advisory EditorCharles Revilla Advisory EditorLilly Hargrave Advertising EditorLisa Krueger Design Editor

The Houston Geological Society Bulletin (ISSN-018-6686) is published monthly except for July and August by the HoustonGeological Society, 10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290, Houston, TX 77024. Phone: 713-463-9476, fax: 713-463-9160Editorial correspondence and material submitted for publica-tion should be addressed to the Editor, Houston Geological SocietyBulletin, 10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290, Houston, TX 77024 or [email protected]: Subscription to this publication is included inthe membership dues ($20.00 annually). Subscription price fornonmembers within the contiguous U.S. is $30.00 per year. Forthose outside the contiguous U.S. the subscription price is $46.00per year. Single-copy price is $3.00. Peridicals postage paid inHouston, Texas.POSTMASTER: Send address changes to Houston GeologicalSociety Bulletin, 10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290, Houston, TX 77024

2 Houston Geological Society Bulletin October 2004


Board of Directors 2004–05http://www.hgs.org/about_hgs/leadership.asp

President (P) Steve Levine Conoco Phillips 281-293-3896 [email protected] (PE) Dave Rensink Apache Corp. 713-296-6332 [email protected] (VP) Kara Bennett Pratt Geosciences 832-452-3747 [email protected] (T) Ken Nemeth Schlumberger 713-513-2327 [email protected] (S) Victor Schmidt Offshore Magazine 713-963-6217 [email protected] (E) Arthur Berman Petroleum Reports.com 713-557-9076 [email protected] Jim Granath Granath & Associates 281-558-3783 [email protected] 03–05 (Dl) Marsha Bourque Consultant 713-789-9525 [email protected] 03–05 (D2) Andrea Reynolds Shell International E&P 281-544-2481 [email protected] 04–06 (D3) Elizabeth Fisher Fugro-Jason 281-859-5377 [email protected] 04–06 (D4) Bill Dupré University of Houston 713-723-8490 [email protected]

Committee Chairperson Phone Email Board Rep. AAPG Delegate Foreman Tom McCarroll 832-366-1623 [email protected] D1Academic Liaison Sherrie Cronin 832-636-3113 [email protected] D1

Alison Henning 713-868-5755 [email protected] Lilly Hargrave 713-463-9476 [email protected] EAdvisory John Biancardi 713-528-1460 [email protected] PArrangements Lee Boatner 713-586-5728 [email protected] VPAwards Mike Deming 281-589-6093 [email protected] D1Ballot Don Scherer 713-723-8484 [email protected] PCalvert Fund Carl Norman 713-461-7420 [email protected] PEContinuing Ed Kara Bennett 832-452-3747 [email protected] D3Directory Dean Gilbert 281-448-6188 [email protected] TEEarth Sc. Wk-ESW Gen. Martha McRae 713-869-2045 [email protected] D3Earth Sc. Wk-Logistics Jennifer Burton 832-636-8357 [email protected] D3Emerging Technology James Brenneke 713-789-2444 [email protected] VPEng. Council of Houston Claudia Ludwig 713-723-2511 [email protected] D1Eng. Council of Houston Richard Howe 713-467-2900 [email protected] D1Env. & Eng. Geology Bruce Woodhouse 281-600-1095 [email protected] VPExhibits Mac McKinney 281-353-0661 [email protected] D2Field Trips Howard White 281-618-6058 [email protected] D3Finance Cheryl Desforges 281-366-4033 [email protected] TFishing Tournament Bobby Perez 281-240-1234 [email protected] D2Foundation John Adamick 713-860-2114 [email protected] PEFund RaisingGlobal Climate Change Jeffrey Lund 713-960-0971 [email protected] D1Golf Tournament Allan Filipov 281-275-7649 [email protected] D4Government Affairs Arlin Howles 281-808-8629 [email protected] D2

Henry Wise 281-867-9131 [email protected] Night Linda Sternbach 713-953-7849 [email protected] D4HistoricalHouston Energy Council Sandi Barber 281-366-3014 [email protected] PHouston Geol. Auxiliary Sally Blackhall 281-370-7807 [email protected] PEInternational Ex. Chair Steve Henry 281-556-9276 [email protected] VPInternational Ex. Co-Chair Al Danforth 713-780-8622 [email protected] VPInternational Ex. Programs Ian Poyntz 281-587-9985 [email protected] VPLibrary Bill Anderson 713-333-5217 [email protected] D3Membership Matt Bognar 832-351-8510 [email protected] SMuseum of Nat. Sc. Inda Immega 713-661-3494 [email protected] D3N. American Expl. Steve Earle 713-840-1980 [email protected] VPNeoGeos Natalie Uschner 713-513-2300 ext. 5923 [email protected] VPNew Publications Tom Fiorito 713-275-7711 [email protected] D4

Bill Rizer 832-252-6141 [email protected] D4Nominations Craig Dingler 281-930-2394 [email protected] PNorthSiders Frank Walles 281-673-6055 [email protected] VP

Gary Coburn 281-782-7021 [email protected] VPOffice Management Deborah Sacrey 713-812-0588 [email protected] PEPersonnel Placement Mike Cline 713-665-5449 [email protected] D2Public Relations Valdis Budrevics 281-543-6740 [email protected] D1Publication Sales Tom Mather 281-556-9539 [email protected] SRemembrances Bill Robbins 713-647-3506 [email protected] SScouting George Krapfel 713-989-7433 [email protected] D2Shrimp Peel Lee Shelton 832-351-8814 [email protected] D4Skeet Shoot Tom McCarroll 832-366-1623 [email protected] D4Tennis Tournament Ross Davis 713-659-3131 [email protected] D3Vendor’s Corner Joe Lynch 713-839-2921 [email protected] TEWebsite Bill Osten 281-293-3160 [email protected] D2

The Ukhtinskaya Expedition of 1929 was the forerunner of

numerous geological exploration endeavors into the vast arctic

wilderness of northern Russia. Enormous

deposits of coal, gold, nickel, diamonds,

copper and oil in the far north were

exploited through forced labor camps

(gulags) from the 1930s to the 1950s.

Stalin’s first five-year plan of economic

expansion adopted in 1928 set the unreal-

istic goal of 250 percent increase in

industrial development, and all industry

and services were nationalized. This result-

ed in an urgency to identify and quickly develop natural resources

from the remote regions of far northern Russia and Siberia. Stalin

needed a massive workforce of laborers

along with skilled scientists and

engineers to implement a grand indus-

trialization plan of canals, railroads,

mines and oilfields. A secret police force,

the Checka, created by Lenin, later

coined the OGPU and eventually the

KGB, procured the necessary labor force

of criminals, political prisoners and

scientists and incarcerated them by

the millions to provide an enormous

labor pool.

As described in Gulag: A History by Anne

Applebaum — “In late 1928, a well-known geol-

ogist, N. Tikhonovich, was arrested by the

OGPU secret police and thrown into Moscow’s

Butyrka prison. In lieu of the normal interroga-

tion, he was brought to a secret planning

meeting to acquire his knowledge of the prepa-

ration needed for an expedition to the tundra of

the Komi region one thousand miles northeast

of Moscow.”

What clothes, provisions and tools were

required? What method of transport and route?

Tikhonovich, still a prisoner, became its chief

geologist. A team of 139 strong, healthy political

prisoners and criminals were selected from the

Kem prison on the White Sea and 2 months

later, in the spring of 1929, the Ukhtinskaya

Expedition set sail.

Following a seven-week voyage through the

Barents Sea and


President’sLetterby Steve Levine

Geologists Reluctantly Led the Way for Gulags

President’s Letter continued on page 7

Thousands of imprisoned

Russian geologists sacrificed

their lives for the development

of natural resources in the

harsh, sub-freezing regions of

northern Russia.


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up the Pechora River, the party landed into the wild, muddy,

solitary forest-tundra village of Chibyu (soon after called

Ukhta). These prisoners toiled 12-hour days to build the camp

and worksites while the geologists searched for the best places

to drill for oil. Additional prisoners and specialists arrived

and, by the end of the expedition’s first year, the camp had

grown to one thousand. During the first year, many of the pris-

oners lived in tents, lacked winter clothes and boots, and food

was in short supply. Swarms of mosquitoes enveloped them

in the summer and bitter, sub-freezing temperatures were

sustained during the long winter. The sickness and isolation was

unbearable.

The Ukhta camp grew to nearly 18,000 by 1933 and it served as a

base camp for many outlying expeditions and smaller gulags

within the oil-rich Komi region of the Timan-Pechora basin. The

large coal fields of Vorkuta, 400 miles to the north within the

Arctic circle, were discovered from geological expeditions from

Ukhta. The Vorkuta coal mines were known to be especially

harsh, as miners worked underground in sub-zero temperatures

in 12-hour shifts only to return to cramped, wooden barracks.

Despite the hardships, the gulag population boomed throughout

Russia: in 1931–32, there were approximately 250,000 prisoners

in the camps; in 1935 approximately 1 million, and by the early

1950s, over 21⁄2 million. Following the death of Josef Stalin in

1953, the gulags rapidly declined.

Thousands of imprisoned Russian geologists sacrificed their

lives for the development of natural resources in the harsh,

sub-freezing regions of northern Russia. ■

HGS NewsHGS Vice President Kara Bennett and our Technical Committee

Chairpersons have assembled an excellent line-up of speakers

for October. Topics include carbonate platforms of Saudi

Arabia, an analysis of Ecuador’s giant Shushufindi Field, tectonic

controls on giant oil and gas fields, fluid flow and its influence

on seismic response, and basin-centered gas in the Piceance

basin of the Rocky Mountains. Please review the Bulletin calen-

dar or Website closely to identify all the great offerings available

for October.

Earth Science Week kicks off on October 9 with wonderful

activities scheduled. Contact Martha McRae or Jennifer Burton if

you would like to assist. Volunteers are always appreciated!

President’s Letter continued from page 5 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


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Key topics for the upcoming presidential debate and election

directly relate to petroleum: the war in Iraq and the economy.

As the situation in Iraq becomes increasingly complex and uncer-

tain, the issues and the debate become more diffuse. I do not

mean to diminish the importance or urgency of the current civil

war in that country or differing views of our conduct there. As

earth scientists, however, we surely must understand that petrole-

um supply is and has always been the basis

for everything we do in the Middle East

since at least the end of World War II.

The economy, likewise, is a complicated sub-

ject that consists of a tangle of important

and inter-dependent issues that can obscure

or over-shadow what cannot be disputed:

American dependence on imported oil is an

unavoidable aspect of the economy in this country and that is

nothing new either. The fact that the price of oil is presently at its

highest sustained level in decades is not disputed nor is its affect

on the cost of doing business in America. As earth scientists we

understand that the need to import oil is unavoidably related to

well-established and painfully clear statistical tendencies about

basin and province maturity, and is not something that can be

fixed by some change in domestic energy policy.

This month I will focus on the first of these subjects, namely the

war in Iraq and Afghanistan though not from a political but,

rather, a geological and historical perspective.

To fully understand current events in Iraq and the Middle East

it is first necessary to view the roots of the conflict in a broader

context than simply as part of the aftermath of the September 11,

2001 attacks on New York and Washington. As World War II drew

to a close President Franklin Roosevelt recognized that the United

States would play the major role in the Middle East as a war-

weakened and empire-weary United Kingdom, France and

Germany abdicated positions they had held for nearly 150 years

in foreign affairs. Roosevelt appointed State Department economic

advisor Herbert Feis to head a study on American strategic policy

in a post-war world.

Feis’s study concluded that U.S. access to oil was the primary

reason for victory over German and Japanese forces in World War

II. Oil had powered the vast network of tanks, ships, aircraft and

personnel carriers that gave allied forces the

competitive edge over their adversaries who

lacked sufficient access to petroleum.

Germany and Japan had, quite simply, run

out of enough oil to continue the war effec-

tively.

It had been, ironically, access to petroleum

that lead to Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor

in December 1941. By the late 1930s the Japanese Empire had

largely accomplished its territorial objectives but wanted to take

Indonesia for its oil and rubber, both critical parts of a military

empire that ran on petroleum-powered ships, planes and land

vehicles. Indonesia was a Dutch colony and Japan’s leaders worried

that the United States’ treaties with the Netherlands might bring

the United States into a war against Japan if Indonesia were

attacked. In an odd quirk of logic, Japan decided to make a

pre-emptive strike on U.S. forces at Pearl Harbor to prevent war

with the United States.

Feis and his colleagues recognized that the Kingdom of Saudi

Arabia held the world’s most plentiful source of petroleum. They

also recognized the political instability of the Kingdom and

concluded that the United States must assume responsibility for

the support and defense of Saudi Arabia in return for a guarantee

of oil supplies. On his return from the Yalta Conference in

February 1945 Roosevelt met with King Abd al-Aziz Ibn Saud, the

founder of the modern Saudi regime, on a U.S. warship in the

Suez Canal. Roosevelt gave the King


by Arthur E. Berman,[email protected]

Election Issues in the Context of Petroleum and History

Editor’sLetter

Petroleum supply is and

has always been the basis

for everything we do in the

Middle East…

Editor’s Letter continued on page 11


a promise of U.S. protection in return for privileged American

access to Saudi oil, an arrangement that remains in full effect

today and constitutes the core of the U.S.-Saudi relationship and

American policy in the Middle East.

Fast-forward to 1979 when a series of events raised the U.S.-

Saudi relationship to a new level of strategic importance. In 1979

the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, the Shah of Iran was over-

thrown by anti-government forces, and Islamic militants staged a

short-lived rebellion in Mecca in Saudi Arabia. President Carter

stated that the United States would view any action that threat-

ened supplies of oil from the Middle East, and especially from

the Persian Gulf, as a threat to U.S. strategic interests with mili-

tary force as a possible consequence.

Carter established the Rapid Deployment Force that later evolved

into the U.S. Central Command in order to provide combat

forces to the Persian Gulf Region if necessary. Carter authorized

covert U.S. actions to undermine the Soviet presence in

Afghanistan. The Saudi government was deeply involved in both

of these initiatives and was responsible for providing both funds

and manpower for the anti-Soviet effort. It was during this

period that Osama bin Laden went to Afghanistan to fight with

the mujahedin rebels against the Soviet occupying forces. The

United States and Saudi Arabia spent more than $3 billion under

Carter and Reagan in arms and support to the anti-Soviet

insurgents in Afghanistan (Klare, 2001).

The main aim of the first Persian Gulf War under George H.W.

Bush was to protect Saudi Arabia from threats of attack by

Saddam Hussein. Kuwait was the catalyst but really a secondary

cause for the invasion of Iraq. In fact, there are tape recordings of

an interview on July 25, 1991, between U.S. ambassador April

Glaspie and Saddam Hussein in which she gave him diplomatic

permission to invade Kuwait.

“We have no opinion on your Arab-Arab conflicts,” the recorded

transcript reports Glaspie saying, “such as your dispute with

Kuwait. Secretary [of State James] Baker has directed me to

emphasize the instruction … that Kuwait is not associated with

America” (Cole, 1999).

Some argue that Hussein was baited into attacking Kuwait to jus-

tify armed action against Iraq for the protection of Saudi Arabia.

Hussein invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1999. On August 4, 1991,

Bush convened his top advisors at Camp David and decided

to take military action to defend the Saudi kingdom against

possible Iraqi attack. Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney went to

Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and got permission to place U.S. ground

forces in that country and to use Saudi bases for air strikes

against Iraq.

Following the Persian Gulf War Osama bin Laden focused his

efforts on two stated objectives: expulsion of U.S. military forces

from Saudi Arabia and overthrow of the Saudi regime. “Both of

these goals put bin Laden in direct conflict with the United

States. It is this reality, more than any other, that explains the ter-

rorist strikes on U.S. military personnel and facilities in the

Middle East, and key symbols of American power in New York

and Washington” (Klare, 2001).

The current “War on Terror” did not begin with the September

2001 attacks on the United States. The first attack on the World

Trade Center in 1993 marks the beginning of the current struggle.

Subsequent attacks in Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Tanzania and Yemen

in the period 1995–1998 were part of a plan by bin Laden to

destroy the U.S.-Saudi alliance begun in 1945. Neither President

George W. Bush nor Osama bin Laden will directly reference the

present conflict to this decade-long dynamic. Make no mistake,

however, that current events in Afghanistan and Iraq have far

more to do with maintaining American supplies of oil from the

Middle East and protecting the Saudi regime from overthrow

than they do with the events of September, 2001.

Consider the devastating economic effects of the four-day hiatus

in petroleum usage following the September 11 attacks. Imagine

the far greater impact of an extended interruption in petroleum

supply on the U.S. economy. Every American president knows

this: if petroleum supply is interrupted, the American economy

will crater; whatever other issues may seem important in a given

election, they will all disappear if there is not enough petroleum

to keep the economy running at the break-neck level that we all

assume is normal.

The U.S. occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan is part of a 60-year-

old policy to ensure oil supplies from the Middle East and to

protect the Saudi regime from overthrow or civil war that might

interrupt that supply. The war that our enemy is fighting is to

make the West go away; it is, in effect, a fantasy ideology (Harris,

2004). Somewhere, however, embedded in the Al-Qaeda strategy

is overthrow of the current regime in Saudi Arabia and disrup-

tion of the U.S.-Saudi alliance; that is the point of convergence

that we must recognize if we want to understand this war.

As geoscientists we should understand better than most the

geo-politics of oil. We know that in the United States we cannot

begin to supply ourselves with enough oil to fuel our needs even

if we open ANWR and find a Prudhoe Bay-sized accumulation

(more on that next month!). We are irrevocably dependent on

the Middle East for oil and there is no way that is going to

change. Whether we agree with the specifics of decisions taken

on Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel or any other topic in the Middle East

we must view them in terms of a

Editor’s Letter continued from page 9 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Editor’s Letter continued on page 13


G E O P H Y S I C A L C O M P A N Y

TGS NOPEC

USA2500 CityWest Blvd. Suite 2000

Houston, Texas 77042-3018Phone: (713) 860-2100

Fax: (713) 334-3308

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Editor’s Letter continued from page 11 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

long-term strategy and policy that center on maintaining oil

supply to the United States. We must also realize that, whatever

our political leanings, an interruption in oil supply would make

all of us wish we had done something more deliberate and forceful

to prevent it. In the hindsight of a U.S. economy without adequate

petroleum supply the niceties of international law and the United

Nations, self-determination of sovereign nations, human rights

and weapons of mass destruction would seem weak excuses for

allowing ourselves to miss the point of what has always been the

focus in the Middle East since at least 1945: petroleum. ■

ReferencesCole, Carleton, 1999, The home forum: Christian Science Publishing

Society.

Klare, Michael T., 2001,The geopolitics of war (United States petroleum

interests in Saudi Arabia and Osama bin Laden):

The Nation, Nov. 5, 2001, v. 273, no. 14, p. 11.

Harris, Lee, 2004, Civilization and its enemies: the next stage of history:

Free Press, New York, 232 p.

Correction and Clarification:

The author of the article entitled What is MSD? has requested

the publication of a correction to the article to clarify that

House Bill 3152 (the Municipal Setting Designation Act) was

never formally endorsed by the Cities of Dallas, Houston,

San Antonio or by the Texas Municipal League. Rather,

the original draft of the bill was modified to respond to

comments from these cities and the Texas Municipal League.

The article was printed as received by the HGS; the HGS

does not consciously or intentionally publish inaccurate

information. The author received the information from third

parties and apologizes for misunderstanding the ultimate

positions of the cities and of the Texas Municipal League

when the Act was passed by the Texas Legislature.


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NeoGeos 5th Anniversary Birthday Bash

The Paleozoic section became

prospective during the seven-

ties following discovery of oil in

Oman and delineation of the enor-

mous gas reserves in the Khuff

Formation. Exploration has since

targeted the Paleozoic section

throughout the Middle East and has

resulted in major oil and gas discov-

eries in Oman, Qatar and Saudi

Arabia. Our improved knowledge of

the Paleozoic geology is a direct

outcome of these activities.

The Paleozoic section in Arabia was

deposited along the continental

margin of Gondwana in predomi-

nantly clastic environments that

ranged from continental near the

Arabian Shield to outer shelf in

Iran and Syria. Carbonate deposi-

tion became dominant during the

Permian opening of the Neo-

Tethys. Six megasequences are

recognized, separated by regional

AAPG Distinguished Lecture

Paleozoic Hydrocarbon Habitat in the Arabian Plate

The Paleozoic hydrocarbon

system…is estimated by USGS to

have generated mean recoverable,

conventional resources of 37 billion

barrels of oil and 808 trillion

cubic feet of gas.

HGS General Dinner Meeting

Monday, October 11, 2004Westchase Hilton • 9999 WestheimerSocial 5:30 p.m., Dinner 6:30 p.m.

Cost: $25 Preregistered members; $30 Nonmembers & Walk-ups

The HGS prefers that you make your reservations on-linethrough the HGS website at www.hgs.org. If you have no Internetaccess, you can e-mail [email protected], or call the office at713-463-9476. (include your name, e-mail address, meeting you areattending, phone number and membership ID#).

by Abdulkader M. Afifi Saudi AramcoDhahran, Saudi Arabia

HGS General Dinner continued on page 17


unconformities. The paleo-environments ranged from arid to

glacial, reflecting the drift and rotation of the region

during the Paleozoic from equatorial to high southern latitudes

and back.

Rifting during the Late Precambrian initially formed salt basins

in Oman and the Arabian Gulf region. Subsequently, the

Cambro-Ordovician clastic sequences were deposited over a

leveled continental platform. However, during the Late

Ordovician this margin probably separated into two terranes

along the Zagros suture zone. The Hercynian orogeny during

the Carboniferous caused widespread intraplate deformation

including broad upwarps in Egypt, Central Arabia, northern

Syria and Oman, which underwent extensive erosion. Other

manifestation of the Hercynian deformation are transpressional

basement horsts in Eastern Arabia that host the major oil and

gas fields. The Hercynian deformation occurred in at least two

pulses and probably resulted from collision along the northern

margin of Gondwana. The Hercynian deformation was followed

during the Permian by rifting and opening of the Neo-Tethys

along the Zagros fault zone and the deposition of Khuff carbon-

ates and evaporates along the new passive margin.

Two petroleum systems are recognized, sourced by rocks of

Precambrian and Silurian age. The Silurian petroleum system is

sourced by the Qusaiba hot shales, which extend over large areas

in the Arabian plate. The hydrocarbons are trapped in

Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian and Permo-Carboniferous sand-

stone reservoirs except in high-relief structures, where the

upward propagation of basement faults has breached seals allow-

ing charge into the Permian carbonate reservoirs. The Paleozoic

hydrocarbon system is oil–prone along the basin margin in

Central Arabia, but is predominantly gas prone elsewhere owing

to the deep burial of the source rocks. It is estimated by USGS to

have generated mean recoverable, conventional resources of 37

billion barrels of oil and 808 trillion cubic feet of gas. In Arabia,

the Paleozoic hydrocarbons are ultimately sealed by the thick

Triassic shales, which prevented any mixing with Mesozoic

hydrocarbons.

The Precambrian source rocks have been proved to be effective in

the interior salt basins of Oman, where they have charged

Precambrian, Paleozoic and Mesozoic reservoirs along faults and

salt diapirs. The Hercynian uplift of Oman largely removed the

Silurian source rocks and effectively saved the Precambrian

source rocks from excess burial.

The main challenges to exploration and development are (1) the

difficulties in seismic imaging of the Paleozoic section because of

multiples, seismic transparency and near-surface problems;

(2) the prediction of porosity in the tight, deeply buried

reservoirs; and (3) the hostile subsurface environments. ■

Biographical SketchDR. ABDULKADER AFIFI received his MS

from the Colorado School of Mines and

PhD from the University of Michigan.

From 1980 to 86 he worked with the

U.S. Geological Survey in Saudi Arabia

doing geological mapping and geochemi-

cal and stable isotope studies of the Mahd

Adh Dhahab Gold District. After earning

his PhD in 1990, he joined Saudi Aramco,

where he has held a variety of positions including Chief

Explorationist and Chief Geologist. Dr. Afifi is currently a Senior

Geological Consultant with Aramco’s Upstream Ventures depart-

ment. He shares his expert knowledge of the Saudi Arabian

region as an AAPG Distinguished Lecturer.

HGS General Dinner continued from page 15 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________H

GS

Gen

eral

Din

ner

TAKING DRILL-READYPROSPECTS

CONTACT: DAN KELLOGG x103DENNIS FERSTLER x104

[email protected](713) 655-1221 TEL(713) 951-0079 FAX

1201 LOUISIANA, SUITE 3310HOUSTON, TEXAS 77002


Vounteer of the Month: Bill Anderson,Library Committee Chairman

Bill Anderson is the new chair of the Library Committee, having

served as a member of the committee last year. The Library

Committee works with the collections of geology documents

donated by HGS to the Houston Public Library many years ago.

“The collection contains some one-of-a-kind driller’s logs and

other hard-to-find geologic data,” says Bill. “There are also

some rare papers from the personal collections of early Texas

geologists.” These materials are all available for use by the public,

but they are likely to be of most interest to those in the profes-

sional geology community.

Anderson hopes to increase the visibility of this committee

by highlighting the materials in the collections and also by

promoting a partnership between HGS, Houston Public Library

and the Bureau’s Houston Core Facility to make some parts of

the collection available as scanned images. Watch the HGS

Bulletin for news about the activities of the Library Committee.

Bill joined HGS in the mid-

1970s soon after he finished

graduate work at UT Austin and

joined Phillips Petroleum in

Houston. In the late 1980s, he

edited the HGS Membership

Directory for 2 years. Bill

worked for Phillips for 25 years,

including a 7-year stint with the

company’s minerals group,

exploring for uranium, then

base and precious metals in the

western United States and Canada. He now works for Access

Sciences Corporation, a records management consulting firm

providing services and technology to help clients manage critical

electronic and paper information resources. ■


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RPS Energy, incorporating RPS Cambrian, RPS Hydrosearch and RPS TimeTrax,offers a wide range of added value solutions to the world-wide oil and gas industry.

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Shushufindi Field, Ecuador’s giant, was discovered by Texaco in

1970 and has already produced over 1 billion barrels of oil

from Cenomanian and Turonian age estuarine and marginal

marine sands of the Napo Formation. The

structure is a 30-kilometer-long anticline

bounded to the east by a north-south-

trending reverse fault.

When Shushufindi was returned to

Petroproducción after 20 years of develop-

ment and production, the field

experienced significant water breakthrough and there was little

documented understanding of the reservoirs and the field’s

reservoir compartmentalization. Now, nearly 30 years after its

discovery, a clear model of the field is emerging.

The U and T intervals of the Napo

Formation represent two cycles of regres-

sion and transgression: The sequence

boundaries at the base of the U Inferior

and T Inferior reservoirs are typically

erosional events at Shushufindi associated

with Cenomanian and Turonian sea-level

lowstands. As sea level started to rise again,

estuarine and nearshore facies of the U Inferior and T Inferior

reservoirs were deposited in areas within the incised valleys. The

U Superior and T Superior reservoirs, along with

the A and B limestones, are primarily marine

deposits deposited later during the transgression.

Using best practice methods summarized here, a

high-quality reservoir model has been constructed

for Shushufindi Field. This model which has been

used in the reservoir simulation to understand

the field’s behavior and to optimize its future

production.

• Incised valley and channel incisions of the U and

T sequence boundaries were defined using 2D

seismic. The estuarine reservoirs are deposited

within the valleys, partially compartmentalizing

the field.

• An inherited northwest and northeast structural

grain controls the location of incised valleys and

channel systems. Local accommodation space and

the proximity of the shoreface influence facies

distributions.

…nearly 30 years after its

discovery, a clear model of

the field is emerging.

by J. Forney, H. San Martin, P. Enwere,J. Vega, P. Acuna, J. OchoaCore Laboratories, Houston, Texas andPetroproducción, Quito, Ecuador

Shushufindi Field, Oriente Basin:Ecuador’s Giant Revisited

International Explorationists Dinner Meeting

Monday, October 18, 2004Westchase Hilton • 9999 WestheimerSocial 5:30 p.m., Dinner 6:30 p.m.



International Explorationists continued on page 21

@pe

trol

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WEST TEXAS GEOLOGICAL SOCIETYFALL SYMPOSIUMOctober 27 - 29, 2004

“Banking on the Permian Basin: Plays, Field Studies,and Techniques”

The WTGS 2004 Fall Symposium will be held during the last week of October. An excellent slate of speakers willbe presenting current research, field studies, new geologic ideas, and outcrop studies to help you explore for anddevelop oil and gas reserves.

A sample list of topics being presented:Choosing between banking and investing in the Permian BasinPermian Basin wrench faultsCarbonate Pore type M & Wettability from Well logsDelaware Mountain GroupMontoya DolomiteP-Wave SeismicField studies: Glorieta Paddock Field, Devonian FieldThe Barnett Shale, Ft. Worth Basin Oil & Gas Norm Remediation in the Permian BasinManzanita Limestone Member, Upper Cherry Canyon formation, Northern Delaware Basin

The Fall Symposium will be held in the Midland Center, Midland, Texas with technical sessions and poster sessionstaking place on October 27-29, 2004. For more information contact Paula Mitchell at the WTGS office at (432) 683-1573, or Debra Rutan, General Chairman at (432) 685-3116 or visit the WTGS website at www.wtgs.org.

******************************************************************************************************

WTGS FALL FIELD CONFERENCEOctober 29-31, 2004Recent Advances in Sequence Stratigraphy & ReservoirCompartmentalization in Upper Guadalupian Carbonates - Guadalupe Mountains, West Texas & Southeastern New Mexico

Leaders: Dr. Emily Stoudt & Dr. Bob Trentham, University of Texas-Permian Basin and Dr. Peter Scholle, New Mexico Bureau of Geology and Mineral Resources

The conference destination will be the Guadalupe Mountains of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico and theemphasis will be on new sequence stratigraphic work carried out in the Yates and Tansill formations in Walnutand Dark Canyons on the eastern side of the mountains. It will include examination of core and thin sectionsfrom several wells that cut the interval participants will be viewing in the field. Participants will also have anopportunity to apply sequence stratigraphic principles to measuring and correlating outcrops of the Tansill shelfdeposits in Dark Canyon.

For more information contact Paula Mitchell at the WTGS office at (432) 683-1573, [email protected], or Dr. Robert Trentham, at (432) 552-2432, [email protected] or visit the WTGS website at www.wtgs.org.


• Six distinct estuarine and near marine facies were

identified and characterized based on the core data from 20

wells. These facies correspond closely to the hydraulic units of

the field.

• A neural network model was developed between the core facies

and log data. Facies were then modeled for each well and facies

maps were constructed.

• The relationship between porosity and permeability was estab-

lished for each facies based on core measurements. Using these

relationships, permeability curves were computed from the

porosity curves.

• Reservoir models were built using well- and seismic-controlled

isopachs and depth maps, coupled with petrophysically-derived

hydrocarbon pore volumes.

• Relative permeability data and pressure data were often erratic

but interpretable in context of the channel systems and facies:

For example, U Inferior’s pressure histories are more consistent

when grouped along a channel system, suggesting partial com-

partmentalization of the reservoir.

Shushufindi has several hundred million barrels remaining

reserves. The rock quality is very high, commonly having

15%–20% porosity and 2–3 darcy permeability,; and the field

has a strong, sustained water drive in most areas. Further

development developed through reservoir simulation will

focus on minimizing water invasion and on targeting attic oil

locations.

Finally, a number of additional exploration targets and plays

were recognized in the prolific and high-potential Oriente Basin.

There are a number of large undrilled structural features identi-

fied regionally, one of which was drilled by Sipetrol with reported

success. Major exploration potential still exists in the primary

Napo and Hollin plays and additional plays exist as well. With the

opening of the OCP pipeline in 2003 providing critical access to

market, Ecuador is experiencing a significant new round of

exploration and development. ■

Author’s note: Ecuador is a microcosm of the world’s balancing

dilemmas: Loan balances owed to the IMF threatened to topple

the economy this last decade, pushing half the population into

poverty and resulting in considerable political instability. The

environment and indigenous people of the Amazonian Oriente

Basin have not benefited from the oil production historically.

Can a partnership of government, industry and world’s financiers

achieve an outcome where all stakeholders benefit?

Biographical Sketches

JAN FORNEY has explored in many of the most prolific basins of

the world, a key player with an excellent track record of identi-

fying new growth potential in these basins. Over 22 years, her

experience spans more than 15

countries and includes key roles in

the deepwater plays of the Gulf of

Mexico and West Africa

at Amoco and Texaco and working

the stable shelf petroleum systems

of the Middle East. At Amoco, high-

lights include acquiring acreage on

Mad Dog and along the Mississippi

Fan Foldbelt, helping to acquire

d e e pw a te r a c re a g e i n Angola

(Block 18) and a number of suc-

cessful exploration wells in the Gulf of Mexico and the Emirates.

Along with a love for exploration, she a lso is a s trong tech-

n ica l geophysicist who brings a variety of tools to bear. She

holds a master’s degree from University of Massachusetts,

Amherst and a bachelors from Smith College.

HECTOR SAN-MARTIN is an AAPG Certified Petroleum Geologist

and Texas State Licensed Professional Geoscientist with over 25

years of professional experience in the oil and gas industry. He

received an MS in geology from Imperial College of Science and

Technology in London, U.K., and BS in geological engineering

from Universidad Central del Ecuador in Quito. He began his

career as a geologist in exploration and development projects

working for Texaco and subsequently for Tenneco and British

Gas. In 1996, he switched to the services side of the oil and gas

industry, working for Halliburton in diverse projects across the

Americas. He is currently a Senior Geoscientist with the

Geosciences and Engineering Group (Core Laboratories) in

Houston. He is interested in the integration of well, seismic and

engineering data to projects ranging from prospects generation

to reservoir management and in particular, the reactivation of

mature fields. He is a member of AAPG, HGS, GSH, GCSSEPM

and SIPES (Affiliate).

PAULY ENWERE is a reservoir engineer and a petrophysicist with

over 10 years experience in core-log data integration, reservoir

characterization, special core study, NMR core spectrometry and

its application to calibrate logging tools. He was the Senior

Petrophysicist for Core Laboratories PLC from 1998 to 2004 and

performed the petrophysical analysis of the Shushufindi and

Libertador projects for Petroecuador. Dr. Enwere earned a PhD

in petroleum engineering from the Imperial College of Science,

Technology and Medicine (University of London), United

Kingdom, in 1991. He joined Core Laboratories after post-doc-

toral research at the Royal School of Mines of the Imperial

College, London. In addition to English Dr. Enwere is proficient

in Russian and Spanish.

International Explorationists continued from page 19_____________________________________________________________________________________________

Inte

rnat

iona

l Exp

lora

tioni

sts


The world’s 877 giant oil and gas fields are those with 500

million bbl of ultimately recoverable oil or gas equivalent.

Remarkably, almost all of these 877 giant fields, which by some

estimates account for 67% of the world’s petroleum reserves,

cluster in 27 regions, or about 30%, of the earth’s land surface

(Figure 1). In this talk, I present maps showing the location of all

877 giants located on tectonic and sedimentary basin maps of

these 27 key regions. I classify the tectonic setting of the giants in

these regions using six simplified classes of the tectonic setting

for basins in these regions: (1) continental passive margins

fronting major ocean basins (304 giants); (2) continental rifts

and overlying sag or ‘‘steer’s head’’ basins (271 giants); (3)

collisional margins produced by terminal collision between two

continents (173 giants); (4) collisional margins produced by

continental collision related to terrane accretion, arc collision,

and/or shallow subduction (71 giants); (5) strike-slip margins

(50 giants); and (6) subduction margins not affected by major

arc or continental collisions (8 giants). For giant fields with

multiphase histories, I attempt the difficult task of discriminating

the single tectonic event/setting I consider to have the most

profound effect on hydrocarbon formation, migration, and

trapping. My main classification criterion is the basin style

dominating at the most typical stratigraphic and structural level

of giant accumulations.

Tectonic Setting of the World’s Giant Oil and Gas Fields

by Paul MannUniversity of TexasInstitute of GeophysicsAustin, Texas

HGS NorthSiders Dinner Meeting

Tuesday, October 19, 2004The Sofitel Hotel • 425 Sam Houston Pkwy. NorthSocial 5:30 p.m., Dinner 6:30 p.m.



Northsiders continued on page 25

Figure 1. Global distribution of 877 giant oil fields plotted on standard Mercator projection of topographic-bathymetric map of the world generatedfrom satellite gravity data (the satellite’s low orbit prevents generation of data in the Arctic region). White boxes indicate regions of concentratedgiant oil fields presented in this talk. Six basin types of giant fields on this map are based on our interpretation of the basin type most responsiblefor the formation of the giant fields in that region.


Continental passive margins fronting major ocean basins form

the dominant tectonic setting, which includes 35% of the world’s

giant fields. Continental rifts and overlying sag basins, especially

failed rifts at the edges or interiors of continents, form the second

most common tectonic setting, which includes 31% of the

world’s giant fields. Terminal collision belts between two conti-

nents and associated foreland basins form the third setting, with

20% of the world’s giant fields. Other set-

ting classes — including foreland basins

at collision margins related to terrane

accretion, arc collision, and/or shallow

subduction; basins in strike-slip margins;

and basins in subduction margins — are

relatively insignificant, with 14% or less

of the total basin population. This tabu-

lation indicates the importance of

extensional settings formed during the

early and late stages of oceanic opening

for giant accumulations: the rift and passive categories combined

account for two-thirds, or 66%, of all 877 giants. This result differs

significantly from previously published giant classifications in

which collisional settings form the dominant tectonic setting for

oil giants.

I propose the following possibilities to explain the dominance of

extensional rift and passive margin settings over all other tectonic

settings: (1) localization of high-quality source rocks in lacus-

trine and restricted marine settings during the early rift stage,

(2) effectiveness of the sag or passive margin section above rifts

to either act as reservoirs for hydrocarbons generated in the rift

section and/or to seal hydrocarbons generated in the underlying

rift section, and (3) tectonic stability following early rifting

that allows hydrocarbon sources and reservoirs to remain

undisturbed by subsequent tectonic events acting on distant

plate boundaries.

Trends in the discovery of giants in the period from 1990 to 2000

that I consider likely to continue into the 21st century include

(1) the discovery of fields in deep-water basinal settings along

passive margins such as Brazil, west Africa and the Gulf of

Mexico associated with nodes of high-quality source-rock areas

and stratigraphic traps located using three-dimensional seismic

reflection data; (2) continued discoveries of giants in known

areas, including expansion of the Persian Gulf hydrocarbon

province to the south into Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula and

north into Iraq; expansion of the West Siberian Basin in the

Arctic offshore area; radial expansion of the Illizi Basin of

Algeria; (3) continued discoveries in Southeast Asia, where

Cenozoic rift, passive margin and strike-slip environments all

coexist around the South China Sea or in the largely submerged

Sunda continent; (4) along-strike expansion of elongate foreland

trends in the Rocky Mountains, northern South America, the

southern Andes, the Ural–Timan-Pechora and Barents Sea, and

the North Slope and; (5) expansion of discoveries in the Black

Sea–Caspian region associated with closure and burial of northern

Tethyal passive margin or arc-related basins.

Despite the association of giant fields

with Cenozoic or Mesozoic plate edges

(especially failed rifts trending at high

angles to continental margins), the possi-

bility always exists for further discovery of

‘‘lockbox-type’’ giants associated with

provinces now cratonic interiors, that

previously were Paleozoic or Precambrian

plate edges, as exemplified by known

Paleozoic and Precambrian hydrocarbon

giant clusters in the Permian Basin in the United States, the Illizi

Basin of Algeria and the Siberian Platform. ■

Biographical SketchPAUL MANN has worked at the

University of Texas Institute for

Geophysics for 21 years and is currently

a senior research scientist there. He

received a BA in geology from Oberlin

College in 1978 and a PhD in geology

from the State University of New York

at Albany in 1983 where his disserta-

tion field areas included Jamaica, Haiti

and the Dominican Republic. At the

University of Texas, Mann focussed field studies in the circum-

Caribbean region, where he was primary supervisor to 14 UT

graduate students and two post-doctoral researchers and was

co-chief scientist on three marine surveys. He is presently

co-leader of an industry-supported synthesis of the tectonics and

petroleum geology of the Trinidad area. He has also conducted

field work in Kamchatka, the Solomon Islands and Papua New

Guinea and was co-chief scientist for two marine surveys of the

Solomon Islands. He has edited or co-edited five published

volumes on regional geology and tectonics of the circum-

Caribbean region and one volume on the marine geology and

tectonics of the Solomon Islands. He is currently an associate

editor of the Bulletin of the Geological Society of America and has

held visiting professorships at the University of Canterbury in

New Zealand and the University of Nice in France. He invites

comments at [email protected].

…the possibility always

exists for further discovery

of ‘‘lockbox-type’’

giants associated with

cratonic interiors…

NorthSiders continued from page 23______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Nor

thSi

ders


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Seismic reservoir characterization, also known as reservoir

geophysics, has evolved over the past several years into a

multi-disciplinary, business-critical function in most ED&P

organizations. Sheriff defines reservoir

geophysics as “The use of geophysical

methods to assist in delineating or

describing a reservoir or monitoring

the changes in a reservoir as it is pro-

duced.” Reservoir geophysics is applied

across a wide spectrum of the oilfield

life cycle from discovery and early

development to tertiary recovery. One

critical part of this process is careful

analysis and understanding of petro-

physical properties from well logs and

core data (seismic petrophysics).

This presentation will illustrate why

seismic petrophysics is so important and will show how carefully

constructed synthetic models can help the geoscientist interpret

acoustic and elastic impedance inversion from seismic data.

Seismic petrophysics can be performed on single or multiple

wells and consists of the following basic steps.

Geophysical Well Log Analysis (GWLA)• Collect and organize input data, reservoir conditions, and fluid

properties

• Perform geophysical log interpretation for volume minerals,

porosity, and fluids over entire well

• Edit logs and perform mud filtrate invasion correction (as

needed)

• Generate miss ing cur ves ( for

example shear wave velocity)

Rock Physics Modeling andPerturbationsPerturb reservoir properties using

rock physics effective medium models

and compute new Vp, Vs and density

curves.

– Fluid Saturation

– Porosity

– Lithology

– Net/gross

SyntheticsCompute synthetic seismic traces for in-situ and modeled

conditions. May also include:

– AVO response

– Acoustic impedance (AI) and elastic impedance (EI)

– Other seismic attributes as needed

Examples show the effects of mud filtrate invasion effects, well-

bore washouts and a bad Vshear log on seismic well tie. An

example is also shown of how seismic

by Dr. Joel Walls Rock Solid Images,Houston, Texas

SIPES Luncheon Meeting

Thursday, October 21, 2004Petroleum Club • 800 Bell (downtown)Social 11:15 a.m. • Luncheon 11:45 a.m.

Cost: $30 Pre-registered (see deadline below) members and affiliates $35 Non-members, guests and walk-ups.Make your reservations by telephone, fax, or e-mail to Mrs. B. K. Starbuck-Buongiorno Telephone: (713)651-1639, Fax: (713)951-9659, e-mail: [email protected] does not take reservations for SIPES Luncheon meetings.

Use of Well Logs in Seismic Reservoir Characterization

The principal benefits of seismic

petrophysics are improved well-to-

seismic ties, improved calibration

of seismic attributes to reservoir

properties, and more reliable

models of seismic response to

reservoir changes.

SIPES continued on page 29


petrophysics can be used to interpret acoustic and elastic imped-

ance inversions for oil saturation and porosity in an on-shore

United States oil sand. The pricipal benefits of seismic petro-

physics are improved well-to-seismic ties, improved calibration

of seismic attributes to reservoir properties, and more reliable

models of seismic response due to reservoir changes (vertically,

laterally and temporally). These models can improve interpreta-

tion of 3D seismic data, especially acoustic and elastic impedance

inversion. This improved interpretation can reduce drilling risk,

enhance field productivity and ultimately increase asset value. ■

Note: This presentation is based on OTC paper 16921, May 2004.

Biographical SketchJOEL WALLS obtained his PhD in geo-

physics from Stanford University in

1983. He has been active in research and

technical services related to core analy-

sis, rock physics and seismic reservoir

characterization. Dr. Walls founded

PetroSoft Inc. in 1992 to bring rock

physics technology to the desktop. Rock

Solid Images (RSI) was founded in 1998

from the merger of PetroSoft Inc.,

Seismic Research Corp. and Discovery Bay. RSI has 30 employees

in Houston and Oslo, Norway. Dr. Walls is Vice President of New

Business Development.

SIPES continued from page 27____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

SIPE

S


Avery large basin-centered gas accumu-

lation in the Williams Fork Formation

of the Mesa Verde Group is currently being

actively developed at 10-acre density.

Ten-acre density is necessary to develop a

reasonable amount of the gas-in-place

owing to the very low (microdarcy)

permeability and the highly lenticular

nature of the fluvial sandstone reservoirs.

Within the area of commercial gas produc-

tion, gas is produced from a continuously

gas-saturated interval of 1,500–2,400 feet.

A transition zone of mixed gas- and

water-saturated sandstones overlies the

continuously gas-saturated interval. Pressure gradients, which

can be as high as 0.8 psi/ft in the lower part of the Williams Fork

in the structurally deeper part of the basin, decrease upward to

hydrostatic gradients near the top of the continuously gas-satu-

rated interval. Pervasive natural fracturing provides sufficient

reservoir permeability to allow commercial production over a

14-township area. This area is continually expanding as a result

of current active exploration for this basin-centered resource.

Overpressuring resulting from the generation of large volumes of

gas from interbedded coals and carbona-

ceous shales may have been important in

fractur ing the sandstones . Dur ing

maximum burial and peak gas generation,

overpressuring may have been maintained

beneath a regionally extensive top seal in

the upper part of the Williams Fork

Formation. ■

Biographical SketchSTEVE CUMELLA got his bachelor’s and mas-

ter’s in geology at University of Texas at

Austin. Steve spent his first 9 years with

Chevron work-

ing the Rockies, Mid-Continent and

West Africa. Since leaving Chevron,

Steve has worked the Rockies,

California and South America. Steve

has worked the Piceance Basin at

Barrett/Williams for the last 4 years.

Steve is past president of the Grand

Junction Geological Society.

by Steve Cumella Williams Production CompanyDenver, Colorado

North American ExplorationistsDinner Meeting

Monday October 25, 2004Westchase Hilton • 9999 WestheimerSocial 5:30 p.m., Dinner 6:30 p.m.



Geology of the Basin-Centered Gas Accumulation,Piceance Basin, Colorado

The North American Explorationists Group is excited to have Mr. Steve Cumella present some of hiswork in the Piceance Basin. This continues the Basin-Centered Gas theme we started last season.Come hear about exploration in one of the more active new areas in the United States.

Steve EarleChairman

Overpressuring resulting

from the generation of large

volumes of gas from

interbedded coals and

carbonaceous shales may

have been important in

fracturing the sandstones.


Although 20 years ago it was politically incorrect to admit

that horizontal permeability anisotropy resulting from

aligned connected porosity was linked with seismic anisotropy

(azimuthal anisotropy), the winds have changed.

Our industry now has a respectable

worldwide effort in research, acquisi-

tion, processing, interpretation and

modeling that pursues precisely that

linkage. The current thought process is

that unequal horizontal stresses and/or

vertical aligned fractures can provide the

aligned, connected porosity that may

result in horizontal permeabil ity

anisotropy. The presence of vertical

aligned fractures and/or unequal hori-

zontal stresses typically causes azimuthal

anisotropy.

The earliest efforts pursued the azimuthal variation of PP and SS

traveltimes and amplitudes, because these pure-mode seismic

waves measurements are the “easiest” measurements our industry

can process and interpret, and we believe we understand travel-

times and amplitudes. Thus our documentation of the

relationship of azimuthal PP and split shear-wave measurements

was founded.

As time went on, the PS modes (P-S1 and P-S2) or the split

C-wave (converted wave—P down and S up) were used to

document the shear-wave anisotropy arising from unequal

horizontal stress and/or vertical aligned fractures.

Now, however, our industry is grappling with what researchers

point out as the “biggest” anomaly that links horizontal perme-

ability anisotropy to seismic anisotropy—azimuthal variation in

attenuation. However, attenuation has usually received cursory

dismissal. We don’t like “dim zones” being “pay” because (1) they

are “too hard” to map, (2) there are too

many other reasons for dim zones rather

than azimuthal attenuation and (3) atten-

uation is too hard to quantify and

attribute to any one cause per se. In the

past, we have often used trace equaliza-

tion, AGC, spectral whitening and other

very powerful processing techniques

to remove dim zones. Processors worth

their salt made those pesky dim zones

look nice and bright and sharp!

In the past, attenuation has been a classic

problem and not a “solution” to anything. Now, however, we can

glide forward on the next wave of multi-component,

multi-mode, multi-azimuth 3D and 4D seismic powered by the

winds of change. ■

Biographical SketchHELOISE LYNN started working in

reflection seismic in the oil/gas

industry in 1975, processing seismic

data at Texaco, in Houston, Texas. In

1978, she completed her MS in

exploration geophysics, Stanford

University, and in December 1979,

she completed her PhD in geo-

physics, also at Stanford University,

in (post-stack) depth migration and interpretation issues within

Joint HGS/GSH General Luncheon Meeting

by Dr. Heloise LynnConsultant

SEG Distinguished Lecture

The Winds of Change: Anisotropic Rocks—Their Preferred Direction of Fluid Flow and Their

Associated Seismic Signatures

Wednesday, October 27, 2004Petroleum Club • 800 Bell (downtown)Social 11:15 a.m., Lunch 11:45 a.m.



…our industry is grappling

with what researchers

point out as the

“biggest” anomaly—

azimuthal variation

in attenuation.


migration algorithms. From 1980 to 1984, she worked for

Amoco in Houston. In collaboration with Leon Thomsen and

Rusty Alford, she worked on shear wave splitting and anisotropy

in SS reflection data. From 1984 to the present, she has been

consulting on anisotropy, multicomponent and multi-azimuth

techniques.

From 1981 onward, she has been working on recognition and

use of S-wave splitting in reflection SS data (mid-1980s), using

multi-azimuth and multicomponent data to characterize

naturally fractured gas reservoirs (mid-1990s). In the mid-1990s,

the U.S. Department of Energy funded three projects, wherein

she served as principal geophysicist, to document how to

use reflection seismic to characterize naturally fractured gas

reservoirs. Her current interests include the co-rendering of

high-dimensional seismic datasets for interpretation

(mid-2000s). “Where you sit governs what you see,” and two

subsequent articles, by H.B. Lynn, Ping Chen and Chenyi Hu, in

The Recorder, Canadian SEG, July 2003, discuss the visualization

of high-dimensional datasets.

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Amodel and data visualization framework for clastic rock

properties, Clastics Graphic Synthesis Model (CGSM), was

developed to cost-effectively identify

fractured/fracturable, unconventional

targets previously missed within active

and inactive wellbores, fields and plays.

CGSM provides the framework to

empirically interpret under-utilized,

relatively inexpensive X-ray diffraction

data (matrix and cements) from well

cuttings, sidewall cores and cores.

Porosity data, thin section information

(point count) and geochemical data (total organic carbon) are

also integrated into the CGSM model.

The lack of full utilization of X-ray data

for petroleum exploration and develop-

ment has been due in part to the

absence of a proper visualization frame-

work that integrates interrelated rock

properties data. CGSM is the initial step

of a process to define fractured, tight

sand and shale producibility models for

individual wells, fields and plays.

A New Method to Help Identify UnconventionalTargets for Exploration and Development ThroughIntegrative Analysis of Clastic Rock Property Fields

by Frank Walles P.G. #1980Advanced Interpretation Consultant

Cuttings are often available and

now, through the application of

the Clastics Graphics Synthesis

Model, can be readily used to

help identify potential fractured

completion zones. A New Method continued on page 36

Figure 1.


A New Method to Help Identify Unconventional Targets continued from page 35 ___________________________

Petroleum geoscientists are increasingly faced with identifying

unconventional/overlooked targets within active and inactive

fields and plays, sometimes with complex data sets, or with

limited data sets. These targets are often fractured carbonates,

fracturable, tight sands, and fractured shales.

Identifying open fracture systems or fracturable zones within

reservoirs can be difficult and expensive, and many new tech-

nologies ranging from borehole imaging to 4-D seismic are now

utilized.

The conventional approach for direct/indirect detection of fractures

utilizes wellbore wireline tools including video, image logs (FMI,

FMS), whole cores, sidewall cores, full wave sonic and tempera-

ture logs. Each of these tools has limitations.

X-ray diffraction (XRD) data from well cuttings, sidewall cores and

cores is an often overlooked and under-utilized for several reasons.

A primary factor is the lack of a rock properties field framework

to synthesize and analyze this detailed data set. This article will

provide this framework. Another factor is that the project geosci-

entist often overlooks XRD data because it is often requested by

another project team member, such as the reservoir engineer,

petrophysicist or petrographer, for observational determinations—

such as reservoir fluid compatibility or capillary entry pressure

inferences.

The CGSM approachThe CGSM provides a technique to assist in the identification of

brittle zones occurring within the reservoir. The purpose of this

rock properties model is to help identify zones with the highest

potential for fractured reservoir development. The focus is on

physical rock properties and their susceptibility to brittle rock

deformation.

The CGSM (Figure 1) graphically illustrates the multi-dimen-

sional fields for fractured reservoir potential through the rock

property inter-relationships with derived axes of percent and

type of cementation, rock composition (through ternary-based

QFL diagrams), and by percent

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A New Method continued on page 41

Figure 2.


S u n d a y M o n d a y T u e s d a y

October 2004W e d n e s d a y

3

10

17

6

11

19

26 2724 25

12 13

[email protected] 24-hour wellsite service hotline: 713-328-2121

NO ONE HAS MORE WAYS TO OPTIMIZE YOUR RESERVOIR.

HGS Executive Board Meeting

Earth Science Week

International ExplorationistsDinner Meeting

by Jan Forney“Shushufindi Field: Ecuador's Giant

Revisited”See page 19

NorthSiders Dinner Meetingby Paul Mann

“Tectonic Setting of the Worlds Giant Oil and Gas Fields”

See page 23

NeoGeos Birthday BashSee page 15

North AmericanExplorationists Dinner

Meetingby Steve Cumella

“Geology of the Basin-Centered GasAccumulation, Piceance Basin, Colorado”

See page 31

HGS General Dinner Meetingby Abdulkadar Afifi

“Paleozoic Hydrocarbon in the ArabianPlate”

See page 15

Joint HGS/GSH General Luncheon Meeting

by Heloise Lynn“The Winds of Change: Anisotropic Rocks— Their Preferred Direction of Fluid Flowand Their Associated Seismic Signatures”

See page 32

4 5

18 20

AAPG/AMGP AnnualMeeting IPAA Annual Meeting

AAPG Student Expo

SEG Annual MeetingGCAGS Meeting

AAPG Eastern SectionMeeting

31

Reservations:The HGS prefers that you make your reservations on-line through the HGS website atwww.hgs.org. If you have no Internet access, you can e-mail [email protected], or call theoffice at 713-463-9476. Reservations for HGS meetings must be made or cancelled by the dateshown on the HGS Website calendar, normally that is 24 hours before hand or on the last busi-ness day before the event. If you make your reservation on the Website or by email, an emailconfirmation will be sent to you. If you do not receive a confirmation, check with [email protected]. Once the meals are ordered and name tags and lists are prepared, nomore reservations can be added even if they are sent. No shows will be billed.

ESW Public Field TripLandmark Visualization

PodSee page 61


1 2

8

15 16

29 3028

7

2322

Upcoming GeoEventsTuesday, November 2HGS Executive Board MeetingNovember 7–10GSA Annual ConventionDenverThursday, November 11SIPES Fall SocialPage 48November 12–15UH Mini-Conference Honoring Dr. Kevin Burke Page 60November 23–25PETEXLondonNovember 30–December 2Deep Offshore TechnologyConferenceDecember 7–9Deepwater and FrontierExploration in SE Asia andAustralasiaJarkarta, Page 49

9

21

NOWyou can make

your reservations on-line at

www.hgs.org

SIPES Luncheon Meetingby Joel Walls

“Use of Well Logs in Seismic ReservoirCharacterization“

See page 27

ESW Blue Lagoon Field TripSee page 61

Members Pre-registered Prices:General Dinner Meeting . . . . . . . . .$25Env. & Eng. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$25Luncheon Meeting . . . . . . . . . . . . .$28International Explorationists . . . . .$25North American Expl. . . . . . . . . . . .$25Emerging Technology . . . . . . . . . . .$25Nonmembers and walk-ups. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .$30

Family Earth ScienceFestival HMNS–ESW

National Kick-OffSee page 61

HGS Shrimp Peel

See page 2

14

NeoGeos Dinner Meetingby Glenn Pankonian“Career Management“


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Success from seismic to reservoir simulation


fine matrix material. Capillary entry pressure and rock mechani-

cal data are also directly inferred from this model.

The advantage of the CGSM is integration of XRD data (actual

physical rock properties) with porosity and permeability (P&P)

data and thin section point count data. XRD data and thin-

section point count data can be readily obtained from cuttings,

cores or sidewall cores. Because well cuttings are often available,

the derived data can be readily used to help identify potential

completion zones.

Most unconventional, fractured plays are not simple petroleum

systems. In these types of plays, industry often implements pilot

programs that are utilized to gather data as well as to experiment

with the most effective completion programs.

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Figure 3a.

Figure 3b.



A number of controlling factors (ellipses of focus) make a well,

field or play economically viable. This approach will build upon

the initial focus of this article—the investigation of the inferred

rock properties fields that can be derived from the traditional

cost- effective data sets such as thin sections, XRD (matrix and

cement), porosity and basic geochemical data.

The Producibility Model PerspectiveAs a first-order understanding for the basis and origin of

unconventional targets, the field and play data sets need to be

integrated and synthesized to determine the primary driving

factors that define a field or play’s hydrocarbon producibility.

A useful approach involves the building of producibility mod-

els for shale gas and tight gas sands. A producibility model

defines the ellipses of critical drivers within a well, field or

hydrocarbon play.

An illustrated producibility model (Figure 2) can be useful

because primary drivers are visually highlighted and therefore

prioritized within the petroleum systems analysis. Developing a

competitive edge within a field or play requires recognition of the

underlying driver and therefore requires an increased effort to

prioritize the understanding of those drivers or combination of

drivers. Understanding the rock property heterogeneity and how

it is controlled is also an element of the producibilty model.

Within combination fractured shale gas and fractured/

fracturable tight sand systems the identification of brittle zones

as well as non-brittle zones is important. Non-brittle zones often

form the seals that retain the economically recoverable gas satu-

rations occurring in the brittle zones. Seal zones are also critical

for managing the fracture stimulation programs whereby vertical

fracture growth is inhibited and horizontal fracture growth is

developed within the more brittle reservoirs.

Seal zones (typically more ductile shales) within shale and tight

sand targets may have a simple key XRD derived factor such as

calcite percent being greater than 5%. Reviewing the XRD data

carefully and calibrating to log information is an important part

of understanding particular drivers in wells, fields and play

trends. The CGSM is designed to visually bring out these compo-

sitional variations from the XRD data with inferences to

potential seal or reservoir rock.

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Figure 4.


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Another critical factor within shale gas systems is the variability

of adsorbed gas. Adsorbed—or bound gas (vs. free gas)—is often

a function of total organic carbon within the shales. The

methane or longer chain hydrocarbons preferentially adsorb

(through weak Van der Waal forces) to the surfaces of available

carbon atoms within the system. Adsorbed gas content within

shales often varies from 10 to 100 standard cubic feet/ton

(scf/ton) depending upon percent TOC.

Increased percent TOC typically influences the brittleness of the

shale section inversely. Therefore within the producibilty model

it is located on the opposite side of the ellipse associated with

brittleness. The percent TOC is included in the CGSM as part of

the percent fine matrix axes.

Building the CGSMThe initial data focus for building the framework of the CGSM

includes developing knowledge of where a particular sample fits

within the standard quartz, feldspar. lithics or labiles (QFL)

ternary diagram. The QFL ternary diagram and rock classifica-

tion framework were initially developed by Dott (1964) and

further refined by Raymond (1995) and others. The basic Dott

framework for sedimentary rocks is still valid and serves as a

long-lived, basic siliciclastic classification system. To the QFL

ternary diagram Dott added a percent fine matrix axis. The

CGSM builds upon this original classification by adding another

axis: the cementation axis

Many sandstone classification systems have since been proposed (50

since 1955). However, the Dott/Raymond series appears to be the

most basic and compelling for siliciclastic sediments. Lindsey (1999)

published an evaluation of many such classifications and included

an analysis utilizing variation scattergrams for classifications.

Another reason the QFL ternary diagram has been utilized by

geoscientists is that it can be used to interpret provenance of the

clastic sediments. Understanding provenance helps predict

subsurface diagenesis and maturity level of the clastic sedimentary

rock sample. The ternary diagrams (Figures 3a and 3b) illustrate

two concepts—the first, the provenance inferences, and the

second, the subsurface diagenesis models illustrating the effects

associated with subsurface diagenetic fluids (carboxylic- and

carbonic acid enriched fluids).

The position of the data within the CGSM is referenced within

the ternary diagram with respect A New Method continued on page 46

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Figure 5.



to the total percent of the rock sample of each of the QFL com-

ponents. The data utilized should be consistently used between

wells or field areas. A good approach is to utilize thin-section

point count data if possible. If that is not available, the XRD data

can be utilized to determine related cement volume among QFL

percentages. For quartz, silica cement would be added. For

feldspar, feldspar-related cements (i.e. illite and smectite, kaolin-

ite) would be included. Most other cements (i.e. pyrite, calcite,

dolomite, ankerite, and siderite) would be included within the

lithics proportion.

Silica cement is most susceptible to brittle failure without rapid

re-precipitation and re-cementation. Enrichment in primary and

secondary quartz or silica cement is often associated with the

optimized fractured shales and tight sandstones reservoirs.

In the subsurface, multiple processes can affect the precipitation

of secondary quartz cement. Styolite surfaces are often good indi-

cators of significant alteration and re-precipitation of these

quartz cement fabrics within normal-pressured environments.

Within hydrocarbon-generated geopressured environments the

inhibition of significant grain-to-grain contact and resulting lack

of dissolution often reduce the volume of silica cementation.

This will be reflected within the CGSM and will indicate a posi-

tion within a less ideal brittleness field.

Figure 3b illustrates the most common diagenetic pathways for

specific fields of rock suites with subsurface diagenesis. The

prevailing mechanism for this alteration is the introduction of

acids, both direct and indirect, from kerogen catagenesis and

metagenesis.

The acidic character of subsurface diagenetic fluids are most

often influenced by inorganic and organic acids created from

kerogen maturation (Surdam et al., 1984). Each kerogen type

produces a specific suite of carboxylic and carbonic acids for

each maturation level. Each of these acids degrades specific rock

components. (Surdam. et al., 1993). Therefore, timing of occur-

rence of these acids within the subsurface system affects the

timing of rock brittleness characteristics. The full producibility

model should take into account these critical timing elements

Degree of cementation within a clastic rock is a critical compo-

nent of the rock properties associated with its strength. The

CGSM utilizes this cementation component as a separate axis.

The cementation axis is defined by the percent reduction of the

original pore fabric by cements. Figure 4 illustrates this axis and

the empirical formula utilized.

Thin-section analysis can also provide information about cemen-

tation history and sequence timing for the development of

brittleness rock property characteristics. Cementation history

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Figure 6.


within fracture zones is especially useful. Fluid inclusion analyses,

as well as isotope evaluations, are additional data sets that can be

incorporated into the producibility model.

The percent fine matrix axis of the CGSM (Figure 5) is utilized to

differentiate the mud matrix (percent fines) and the grain size

matrix. When a clastic sedimentary rock varies from a pure grain

(0% fine matrix) composition to a mixed composition (varied

percent fine matrix) to a pure fine matrix rock (pure shale –

100% fines), the rock changes from an isotropic material (by

grains) to an anisotropic material (mixed grains) and then to an

isotropic material (all fine grains), respectively. This does affect

the strength of the material. The apparent change in rock

strength is characterized by varying values of Young’s modulus E.

The need to characterize changes in rock strength as a function

of anistropy is the basis for the importance of percent fine matrix

axis of the CGSM.

When the three basic elements of the CGSM are integrated (the

ternary QFL diagram, the cementation axis and the percent fine

maxtrix axis), the expected brittleness field can plotted with

respect to each of these axes. The “Best Properties Field for

Fractured Reservoirs” defines the rock property suite that has the

greatest inferred rock strength and resulting potential for main-

taining brittle behavior in the subsurface. Figure 6 illustrates this

field and the combination of axes, creating the framework of the

CGSM.

Illustrating the visual position of data points within the CGSM is

best handled by use of “tadpoles” (Figure 7). Geoscientists have

successfully utilized the tadpole concept in dipmeter logs.

However, within the CGSM, the tail of each of the tadpoles is

placed at the tie point to the plane created from the cementation

axis and the percent fine matrix axis. The “head” of the tadpole

lies in the position referenced within the associated QFL ternary

diagram that is placed at the end tail location. Figure 7 illustrates

the position of a series of tadpoles within the CGSM model and

how their position are illustrated with respect to the Best

Properties Field for Fractured Reservoirs.

SummaryThe GCSM is a novel visualization tool that utilizes data previ-

ously not effectively utilized in identification of targets within

fractured shales and fracturable tight sands. The purpose of this

rock property model is to help visually identify zones with the

highest potential for fractured reservoir development.

The model graphically illustrates the multi-dimensional fields

for fractured reservoir potential through the rock property inter-

relationships with derived axes of percent and type of

cementation, by rock composition

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Figure 7.


2004 Fall Social Houston Chapter of SIPESDate: Thursday, November 11, 2004

Time: 6:30 PM. Cocktails (Cash Bar), Complimentary Wine; 7:30 Dinner

Location: The Petroleum Club, Discovery Room

Exploring Mars — Robots and Humans;

Geology and Biology (?)Speaker: Dr. Carlton C. Allen

NASA Johnson Space Center

How would you conduct a program of geological fieldwork on the planet Mars? Whileour generation of scientists pursue this goal with robots, our sub-teen neighbor, son,daughter, or grandchild may walk on the red planet within our lifetime. How do we goabout exploring Mars?

Our featured speaker Dr. Carlton C. Allen will give us his insights on the subjectdrawing on his experience in and contributions to methods of extraterrestrial explo-ration. Dr. Allen will present us with an overview and update of Mars geology, theobservations we’re making from the spacecraft currently operating on the planet’s sur-face and from others in Mars orbit. He’ll also discuss missions planned for the nextdecade, and the continuing controversy over possible evidence of life.

Mail this 2004 SIPES Social Registration form and a check (payable to SIPES Houston Chapter) to SIPES c/o BK Buongiorno,1001 McKinney, Suite 801, Houston, TX 77002. Payment must be received no later than November 5, 2004. Entrée choices:(A) Tournedos Benjamin – Two (4 oz) Stuffed & Topped with Mushrooms-Madeira Sauce; (B) Snapper Ponchartrain-Crabmeat,Shrimp and Oysters with Wine Sauce; (C) Vegetarian Plate

Name Entree Choice SIPES Member Telephone/email

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______________________________________ (A, B, C) (Y or N) __________________________________

Number of persons attending ________ x $50 per person = __________________Total payment due.


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INTERNATIONAL GEOSCIENCE CONFERENCE

Regent Hotel, Jakarta

December 7-8, 2004

Deepwater and Frontier Exploration in Asia & Australasia

Technical Presentations: Focus on geosciences with approx. 50 technical papers to be presented (oral and poster) and published in a Proceedings Volume (hard copy and CD-ROM)➣ nine technical sessions on Tues-Wed, 7th-8th Dec., comprising up to twenty-seven oral papers ➣ special informal evening session on Tues, 7th Dec., for a highlighted area or topic➣ exhibition for up to 25 poster presentations

Registration: US$ 350 for IPA & AAPG Members / US$ 400 for Non-Members Includes luncheon for 2 days, seminar, and evening session on Tues, 7th Dec.

Field Trips: 1. Miocene Mt. Messenger deepwater depositional system on the North Island of New Zealand, November 20th-24th

2. Cross Borneo: Comparison of Sedimentation, Stratigraphy and Structure in Kutei Basin,East Kalimantan and Northwest Borneo, November 28th-December 5th

Short Courses: 1. Deepwater Depositional Systems, December 6th, 20042. Deepwater Pore Pressures and Fracture Gradients, December 6th, 2004

Accommodation: The Regent Jakarta; room rate/night for Deluxe Room is US$ 127 net.

For details please contact the IPA secretariat,phones: (62-21) 572-4284, 572-4285, 572-4286, 0811-938776 or fax (62-21) 572-4259,

e-mail [email protected]

(through ternary based QFL diagrams) and by percent fine

matrix material. This model utilizes QFL ternary diagrams in

multi-dimensional space so that primary inter-related data can

first be mapped and then layered into additional planes.

The advantage of the CGSM is integration of XRD data and thin

section data with P&P data from cuttings, cores or sidewall cores.

Cuttings are often available and now through the application of

CGSM, can be readily used to help identify potential fractured

completion zones. Alternatively, rock mechanical data usually

require whole core or sidewall core material and are often much

more expensive to obtain. ■

Biographical SketchFRANK WALLES is a geological consultant specializing in advanced

interpretation techniques encompassing petroleum systems

evaluations, producibility model development, and identification

of missed completions. International and domestic corporate

experience has included Tenneco Oil Company, British Gas E&P,

Union Pacific Resources, Anadarko Petroleum, Kerr McGee,

as well as joint venture teams with Shell and Mobil. He can be

contacted at [email protected].

BibliographyDott, R.H. Jr., 1964, Wacke, greywacke, and matrix—what approach to

immature sandstone classification? Journal of Sedimentary Petrology, v. 34, p.

625-632.

Lindsey, D.A., 1999, An evaluation of alternative chemical classifications of

sandstones, USGS Open File Report, 99-346.

Raymond, 1995, Petrology: The Study of Igneous, Sedimentary, Metamorphic

Rocks, Wm. C. Brown Communications Inc., Chicago, 742 p.

Surdam R.C., Boese, S.W. and Crossey, L.J., 1984, The chemistry of secondary

porosity, in McDonald, D.A. and Surdam, R.C. eds., Clastic Diagenesis, Amer.

Assoc. Petrol. Geol. Memoir 37, p. 127–150.

Surdam R.C, Jiao, Z.S. and MacGowan, D.B. 1993, Redox reactions involving

hydrocarbons and mineral oxidants, a mechanism for significant porosity

enhancement in sandstones, American Association of Petroleum Geologists

Bulletin, v 77, p. 1509–1518.


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Technofest is normally a time to recharge the technology bat-

tery over the lazy summer season—a respite from the heat

and slower industry activity. This year the gathering was held in

August, just in time to refocus HGS members on the important

exploration and development work coming in the third

and fourth quarter. Industry’s “discovery engines” normal-

ly crank up for an active year-end season and this year

looks to have higher activity than earlier seasons.

Almost 40 companies bought booth space and shared the

latest advances in industry tools and techniques for partici-

pants’ consideration. The offerings were wide, from raw

data sources to equipment to specialized skills for augment-

ing the thinned exploration ranks in many companies.

Conversation, food and drink helped HGS

viewers maintain their stamina as they

trolled the two auditoriums filled with tech-

nical potential. Lots of gossip and industry

impressions were shared. One tidbit I

(Victor) picked up: regional mapping (or at

least the need for it) is causing an increase in

new orders for mapping services. Higher oil

prices are helping underpin companies’ abil-

ity to buy the services they could not afford a

short time ago. Many new entrants are buy-

ing regional information to guide their

limited in-house knowledge.

Computers and software now rule the day

and were prominent on the floor.

RCL systems demonstrated its new geophysical

workstation offering three memory and speed

combinations (Rockhound, Explorer and

Wildcatter) to meet the professional’s need.

Not to be outdone, The Workstation Place

showed its Black Dragon series of

super-fast machines, using technology,

developed for teenage-gamers, to enhance

explorer’s data manipulation ability.

Rock basics were also well represented by

analysis labs, micropaleo specialists and

regional studies experts. Gravity vendors

also were available to help clean up 3D

surveys and define those salt features

hiding pesky sub-salt plays.

In all, the Technofest delivered the summer tech-break and pre-

pared the HGS attendees for the fall season. Be sure you tell your

in-house team about the new tools available to make your next

project shine. ■

Technofest Kickoff Ushers in Fall SeasonArticle by Victor Schmidt, HGS Secretary

Photos by Art Berman, HGS Bulletin Editor

Technofest continued on page 55


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Chairfest 2004Article by James W. Granath Photos by Art Berman, HGS Bulletin Editor

Summer time is a break in HGS operations. New

officers have been elected, a new editor steps up

to take over the Bulletin, and yet the business of the

Society must go on beginning in September. So it

has become customary late in the summer for the

officers, directors and committee leaders to meet in

an informal environment to get an update on past

business, the business at hand and that coming in

the near future. It also affords folks the opportunity

to get to know each other, thus facilitating working

together in this, the largest local geological society

in the world. This meeting has become known as

“Chairfest.”

This year we met in the Westlake Club in the

“Energy Corridor”—a familiar place to many in

our industry from various scout check meetings

and the like—on August 26. Rock n’ Roll was the

theme with several surprise entrances by HGS folks

impersonating famous musicians. Some 50 people

attended, virtually covering every aspect of the

Society’s business.

President Steve Levine called the meeting to

order about 6:45 pm. Each of the officers and

directors then proceeded to summarize their

activities and introduce reports from the var-

ious committees they oversee. The diversity of

HGS activities is truly mind-boggling, and

the service to not only the profession here in

the Houston area but also to the general well

being of the city is impressive. HGS activities

range from our social/recreational and educa-

tional events to a variety of substantive

services to our membership and involvement

in serious social issues. All were covered in

considerable detail at Chairfest 2004. I cannot

cover everything that was aired, but we can

mention the highlights and many important events that will be of

interest to the general membership.

Richard Howe and Claudia Ludwig reported on the September 11 sem-

inar on flooding in Houston sponsored by the Houston Engineering

Council and Harris County Flood Control. Although that event will

have happened by the time this report reaches you, VP Kara Bennett

spoke on the Engineering Council’s activities surrounding the issue of

subsidence in the Gulf Coast, and a seminar by Ray Dokka of LSU in

Above: Cher (Deb Sacrey) and Dave Rensink;

left: Jimi Hendrix (Bill Osten) and

below: Billy Idol (Bobby Perez)


November on that topic. Look for it: this is an issue facing not only

Houston but the whole of the Louisiana and Texas coastal areas.

Director Elizabeth Fisher reported on the plans for Earth Science

Week, which is October 9 to 17. These revolve around family activi-

ties, like a field trip to Blue Lagoon October 16-17 for a rare chance

to collect the plant fossils there, and Family Day at the Houston

Museum of Natural Sciences on October 9. Inda Immega was proud

to announce that the HMNS Earth Science Festival on that Family

Day will be the national kickoff to Earth Science Week and issued a

plea for volunteers.

The HGA and NeoGeos will be active again this year. Margaret Jones

summarized some of the history of the HGA and outlined their

plans to host a Dinner Show at Magic Island. Natalie Uschner

reminded everyone that this year NeoGeos celebrates its 5th birthday

on October 19, and she plans to expand the committee to involve

more of the younger set in HGS.

Internal business was a major part of the meeting. HGS is financially

sound, with $400K in the Calvert Memorial Fund: Carl Norman

reported on 4 scholarships that we administer. Finance chair Ken

Nemeth is stepping up to replace Treasurer Chuck Sharpe, who has

had to resign because of a change in jobs and the attendant commit-

ments. Cheryl Desforges will take over the finance committee. Victor

Schmidt reported that Dean Gilbert reminds everyone that a new

membership directory is in the offing, and that member data as of

September 30 will be its basis. Art Berman introduced the new look

for the HGS Bulletin. Bill Rizer commented on the New Publications

committee’s preparation of a new volume on the geology of Houston

Social functions have been successful this past year, and there is

no reason to suspect that the tennis, golf, and fishing tournaments

will be any different this year. The skeet shoot will be Fathers’ Day

in Missouri City next year. The Guest night committee is looking

for a venue for Members’ Night in 2005. Any ideas? Contact

Linda Sternbach

HGS will be the local sponsor of the AAPG national meeting here in

Houston in 2006. The theme is “Perfecting the Search.” Charles

Sternbach urged anyone interested in contributing to the effort to

get in touch with him or anyone else in the effort.

Finally Craig Dingler presented two awards that could not be done

at President’s Night. Al Danforth received a distinguished service

award, and Sherrie Cronin a Rising Star Award.

I can only conclude by saying that this is a vital and energetic group

of folks leading our society. We should all be thankful, but remember

that it runs on volunteerism—get involved! ■

Al Danforth

Sherrie Cronin

Andrea Reynolds

Arlin Howles

Bill AndersonChairfest continued on page 58

Steve Levine


ChairFest continued from page 57___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________C

hairF

est

Bill Rizer Carl Norman Charles Sternbach

Claudia Ludwig Craig Dingler Deb Sacrey

Dave Rensink Elizabeth Fischer Henry Wise

Inda Immega Jeff Lund Jen Burton


Cha

irFes

t

Kara Bennett Ken Nemeth Linda Sternbach

Mac McKinney Margaret Jones Marsha Bourque

Martha McCrae Mike Deming Richard Howe

Alison Henning Valdis Budrevics Victor Schmidt


CALL FOR PAPERSBUDDING NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Southwest Section AAPG 2005 ConventionApril 10-13, 2005

Fredericksburg, Texas

The Southwest Section is seeking paper and poster presentations for the 2005Southwest Section Convention to be held April 10-13, 2005 in Fredericksburg, Texas.There will be Technical Sessions on Monday, April 11th in the morning and afternoon,and only morning sessions on Tuesday, April 12th and Wednesday, April 13th. We aresoliciting papers covering topics from field studies to emerging technologies.

With historical Fredericksburg as the backdrop for the convention, we anticipate arather sizeable turn out. This would be a great opportunity for you, as an author, topresent your work before a large and appreciative audience.

The planned attractions for the convention include a German Festival with an OompahBand, a Wine and Wildflower Tour, shopping for the spouses and, of course, the icebreaker which will be held at a local brewery. Mark your calendars and watch for comingannouncements. If you have any questions about the convention, contact Mike Party(Convention Chairman) at (432) 686-5971 or by email at [email protected]. We hope to see you in Fredericksburg!

Deadline for submittal of papers is December 15th 2004.

If you would like to present a paper or poster, please contact:

David J. Sivils, Tom Brown, Inc., [email protected]

(432) 688-9642 (Office) or (432) 682-5034 (Fax)


Governmental Updateby Henry M. Wise, P.G. and Arlin Howles, P.G.

Detailed information and web links: HGS.ORG/47.2/

• Texas Board of Professional Geoscientists: Professional Geoscientist seals are required on reports submitted to the The Texas

Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) as of September 1, 2004.

• Remediation Fund: The TCEQ has released new reimbursement guidelines regarding the PST (Petroleum Storage Tank)

Remediation Fund

• Texas Register: The TCEQ has proposed new standards for drinking water quality and reporting requirements of public water sys-

tems, including a maximum contaminant level for uranium.

• EPA Funding: Federal funding for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was reduced by 7.3% to $7.8 billion

• National Cooperative Geologic Mapping Act Advances in House and Senate

• Pipeline Safety: The General Accounting Office (GAO) found that the number of severe accidents has not decreased and that the

Department of Transportation Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) should clarify its program goals and strategies.

• Refineries: The House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee met on July 15, 2004, to address the state of the oil refining industry in

the United States, which has been a popular topic owing to elevated gas prices and speculation that those prices will continue to rise.

• House Holds Hearing on Natural Gas Price Modeling: The discussion revealed that natural gas prices have been difficult to predict

because of the complex nature of models and the variations in the underlying assumptions of the various models, which are often

biased and unclear.

• Study: Natural Gas Prices to Keep Rising: Cambridge Energy Research Associates concluded that natural gas prices will continue to

rise in North America unless the oil and gas industry can resolve its shortage. The study predicted natural gas prices would rise to

$6.62 per million BTU by 2007.

• Coalbed Methane Hydraulic Fracturing Poses Little Threat to Groundwater:

• Court Upholds Constitutionality of Yucca but Rejects 10,000 Year Standard: On July 9, 2004 the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for

the District of Columbia released a ruling that upheld the constitutionality of the Yucca Mountain site selection process but rejected

the 10,000-year compliance period for limiting the release of radiation set by the EPA.

• Status of Engineering and Science in the Workforce: Concerns were expressed over the future of science in the United States,

explained as an aging science workforce and a decrease in foreign talent are threatening the country's economy, security and health.

• CCSP Proposes First Research Project: Bush Administration's Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) issued a draft prospectus

of its first of 21 major climate science assessments, titled “Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere—steps for understanding and

reconciling differences.”

Additional, detailed information on Government Affairs may be found on the HGS Website at http://www.hgs.org.


Mini-Conference Announcement

“Plate Tectonics, Plumes, andPlanetary Lithospheres”

HonoringDr. Kevin Burke’s

Scientific Contributionsand 75th Birthday

To be held at the University of Houston Hilton Hotel

4800 Calhoun Houston,Texas 77204

November 12-15, 2004

Invitation to attend or participatewith oral or poster presentation

(Deadline October 12,2004)

On-line Pre-registration and Abstract Submission

www.geosc.uh.edu/Burke

Co-sponosred by The University of Houston and Alumni

The Lunar Planetary InstituteHouston Geological Society

Preliminary List of Presenters:Lew Ashwal Tanya Atwater Suzanne BaldwinKevin Biddle John M.Bird William BosworthSam Bowring Dwight Bradley Clark Burchfiel John Casey Lawrence M. Cathles Marten De WitJohn Dewey Richard Gordon John GibsonMark Harrison Jim Hays Paul HofffmanRaymond Jeanloz Robert Kay Sue KayJeffrey Karson W.S.F. Kidd Tim KuskyMichael Murphy Yaoling Niu Ali Pollat A.M.Celal Sengor Paul Mann Paul OlsenJames Pindell Walter Pitman III Wikki Royden David Rowley Buck Sharpton Trond Trosvik Sean Solomon Robert Stern Paul TapponierDon Turcotte Justin Wilkinson Hua-wei Zhou

Mary Lou Zoback


Living on a Restless EarthEarth Science Week October 9–17, 2004

National Earth Science Week is coming up soon so mark your calendars for a great line-up of events during the week of October

9–17. This year’s theme is “Living With a Restless Earth.” The HGS Earth Science Week committee in partnership with our cor-

porate sponsors will be hosting a number of public activities to celebrate earth science awareness. Earth Science Week kits which

include posters, are available from the AGI at http://www.earthsciweek.org/index.html.

Houston has the distinguished honor of having one of the largest celebrations in the country. We have had an incredible turn-out

for these events over the past few years. Pictured are some highlights from the 2003 Earth Science Week.

Family Earth Science FestivalHouston Museum of Natural Science Saturday October 9, 2004, noon–5:00 pm

Join us for the Family Earth Science Festival at the Houston Museum of Natural Science’s

Weiss Energy Hall. The festival will include an energy passport contest, hands-on demon-

strations, special presentations, Scout activ ities, and programs. We will have an opening

ceremony for Houston’s Earth Science Week in the museum at 1:00pm. Boy Scouts and

Girl Scouts are inv ited to participate in a special program to earn a patch and do require-

ments for earth science related badges (scouts require adv anced registration with the

Museum : jtalm age@hm ns.org. Please join us as a visitor or a volunteer, and bring your

family and friends!

Classroom Connections—Art & Essay ContestOctober 9, 2004

This year we are inviting 4th and 8th graders from classrooms around Houston to partici-

pate in our Art & Essay contests, respectively. The theme of these contests will be the

national theme “Living on a Restless Earth.” The deadline for submission will be October 4.

First, second, and third prize winners will be selected from each category and will be

awarded at the Family Earth Science Festival on October 9. For more information, please

contact Jennifer Burton at [email protected]. National contests for students,

teachers, and the general public are outlined on http://www.earthsciweek.org/index.html.

Not one but … TWO General Public Field Trips The Blue Lagoon rock quarry Saturday, October 16, 2004 11:00 am–3:00 pm

We will be viewing the Cataholla Formation which is exposed at the quarry and is

Oligocene in age. Geologists and volunteer rock enthusiasts will be on hand to discuss flu-

vial (riverine) sedimentation and the fossil plants preserved there. Please arrive within the

time limit and we promise to have people on the ground to show you a glimpse of our

world of over 30 million years ago!. There is a fee of $2/car for this site, exact change please.

Stuff your cars full of people and come. Rain or shine. This is a scuba diving site but we will

not be diving or swimming. Exit 123 off I–45, north of Huntsville. Go east for 4 miles.

Look for orange tape and the HGS Earth Science Week banner.

3D Images of the Earth Sunday, October 17, 2004 By reservation

Sunday offers the indoor adventurer the opportunity to visit the Landmark visualization pod. See the earth in a new way with 3D seismic

in 3D! We will show you how geoscientists look for interesting geological features that are well below the earth’s surface, like an X-ray

views the body beneath the surface of the skin. Please email Neal Immega at [email protected] to make a reservation for 1, 2, 3

pm and you will get a return email with a map of how to get to Landmark’s facility. The pod has limited seating per showing so you

must RSVP!

For more details contact: Earth Science Week chair Martha McRae at [email protected] or

fieldtrip coordinator Neal Immega at [email protected].


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Manny N. Fernandez has transferred to theConocoPhillips Qatar Limited Business Unit, Doha Qatareffective August 1 , 2004. In his new role, Manny willbecome Manager, Geoscience Operations for theQatarGas 3 Project. Manny was formerly the GlobalGeoscience Operations Coordinator for ConocoPhillipsin Houston,Texas. (Posted 28 August 2004)

Claudio Bartolini is the senior editor for the newAAPG Memoir 79 titled The Circum-Gulf of Mexico and theCaribbean: Hydrocarbon Habitats, Basin Formation, and PlateTectonics.The memoir contains 44 international papers onthe geology of the Gulf of Mexico, with an emphasis onthe Mexican portion of the basin, and to the petroliferous

areas of the Caribbean, including Colombia,Venezuela,Cuba, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Claudio continues to conduct integrated studies of theMexican basins and their petroleum systems as part of hisindependent consulting activities. His present researchincludes the Sabinas and Burgos Basins of northernMexico, and the Mesozoic syn-and-post rift sequencesalong the coastal region of the Gulf of Mexico. (Posted 26August 2004)

Ken Webb to Geoscience Manager, Ridgewood Energy,Houston,Texas. Formerly he was Consulting Geologist,Ridgewood Energy, Houston,Texas. (Posted

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This year’s Saltwater Fishing

Tournament was delayed

about a month due to bad weath-

er, but we felt it was better to be

safe than sorry. It is no fun being

caught in the middle of the bay

under a thunderstorm with light-

ing striking around you.

Postponing the tournament was a

good decision for all concerned

because the tournament was a big

success for both the Geophysical

Society of Houston and the

Houston Geological Society.

Everyone had a great time. The

tournament took place at

Teakwood Marina, Village of Tiki

Island, Galveston, Texas, with no

rain in sight. We had 60 anglers

fishing the entire Galveston Bay

Complex catching plenty of red-

fish, speckled trout, and flounder.

A “special thank you” to the vol-

unteers of the event: Joan

4th ANNUAL GSH/HGSSALTWATER FISHING TOURNAMENT 2004

July 17, 2004by Robert D. Perez, Tournament Chairman

GHS/HGS Saltwater Fishing

Tournament continued on page 66

This year’s winners are:Heaviest Speckled Trout:

First Place: Brian Anderson, 3 lb. 3 oz.

Second Place: Jeremy Denman, 2 lb. 11 oz.

Third Place: David Garza, 1 lb. 16 oz.

Heaviest Redfish:



Third Place: Russell Perry, 4 lb. 3 oz.

Heaviest Flounder:

First Place: James Allen, 2 lb. 12 oz.

Second Place: Al Danforth, 2 lb. 8 oz.

Third Place: James Harle, 1 lb. 14 oz.

Heaviest Stringer:



Third Place: James Harle, 7 lb. 0 oz.


Henshaw and Lilly Hargrave (GSH/HGS office), Tom

Parsons (Rinalli Boats), Greg Doll (Strand Energy),

Tom Ayers (Teakwood Marina), Kayle Hahn and Allan

Grimes (M-W Paper & Graphics Supply), Patricia

Perez (Seismic Ventures) and Janet Autrey (Seismic

Exchange) for helping with the registration and prepa-

ration of the event.

We can’t praise our sponsors

enough for their support and gen-

erosity for this event. We want to

give a “special thank you” to

Kenneth Baucum, Jr. (Diversified

Well Logging) for sponsoring the

fish fry, Gene Lindsay (GX

Technology) for sponsoring the

marina, David Orchard (Manzanita

Alliance) for sponsoring the awards

and Jeff Autrey (Seismic Exchange)

for sponsoring the fishing caps.

Sponsors for the Saltwater fishing

Tournament were John Polleys

(Roff Oil & Gas), Bobby Perez

(Seismic Ventures), Ed Woodruff

(Southwest Canoe & Kayak),

Sukhdev Hyare (GeoCenter), Steve

Bitcher (Veritas Geophysical -

Hampson & Russell Software

Services), Fritz Snyder (Geological

Services), Joe Cruso (Manzanita

Alliance), Jerry McCormack

(Indel-Davis), Jim and Jeanie

Harris (American Shooting

Centers), Patrick Klem (Polaris

E&E Services), Steve Tyrrell (Tyrne

Data Services), Brian Naquin

(Ovation Data Services), Greg Uhlig (Rinalli Boats),

Lee Shelton (Veritas Exploration Services), Allan

Grimes (M-W Paper & Graphic Supply), Bob

LoPiccolo (eSeis), John Meeks (Meeks Outboard

Service), John Cramer (PGS Marine Geophysical),

Gregg Watts (GeoMap), George Lauhoff (Fairfield

Industries), Kenneth Mohn (Fugro Multi Client

Services) and Brian Anderson (Fugro Robertson) are

also thanked. We wish to thank everyone again

involved with the “4th Annual GSH/HGS Saltwater

Tournament.” The best advertisement is word of

month, so please spread the word to your friends about

the next fishing tournament. Tight lines to everyone

until next year.■

GSH/HGS Saltwater Fishing Tournament continued from page 65_______________________________________________________________G

SH/H

GS

Saltw

ater

Fis

hing

Tou

rnam

ent


As a member are invited to join

GeoWives2004–2005 dues are $7.50

make check payable to GeoWives and mail to:Dene Grove

12715 PebblebrookHouston, Texas 77024

Please provide the following

Name: ______________________________________________

Sreet Address: ________________________________________

__________________________________________________

City/State/Zip: ______________________________________

__________________________________________________

Telephone: __________________________________________

email: ______________________________________________

I will help plan a GeoWives activity

I will serve on a committee

Notification / Phone Committee

Courtesy / Hostess

My home is available for a meeting

GSH

/HG

S Sa

ltwat

er F

ishi

ng T

ourn

amen

t

GEOSCIENCE JOBS & PERSONNEL AVAILABLE!Job Seekers:

During the past year, the HGS Jobs Hotline website has averaged over 30 positions per month. New ads are being posted almost every day!

Employers:Get free listings, and a large response from qualified candidates, for your ads. Our website averages nearly 11,000 website “hits” per month.

Current Jobs page at:http://www.hgs.org/jobs/current_listing/current_listings.htm

Contact info:Mike Cline at T/X Resources – Chairman, HGS Personnel Placement Committee

(713) 665-5449 • www.txresources.com


T. C. Chamberlin’s “Method of Multiple WorkingHypotheses:” An Encapsulation for Modern Students

EDITOR’S COMMENT: I first read this article by T. C. Chamberlin as a

graduate student. Its message and relevance are strong 105 years

after its presentation as an address to the Society of Western

Naturalists in 1899. The address was subsequently published in

Science and in The Journal of Geology. This recent encapsulation

is reprinted with the gracious permission of L. Bruce Railsback,

Department of Geology, University of Georgia.

IntroductionScientific study designed to increase our knowledge of natural

phenomena can follow at least three different intellectual methods.

These can be called the method of the ruling theory, the method

of the working hypothesis, and the method of multiple working

hypotheses. The first two are the most popular but they can, and

often do, lead to ineffective research that overlooks relevant data.

Instead, the method of multiple working hypotheses offers a

more effective way of organizing one’s research.

Ruling Theories and Working HypothesesOur desire to reach an interpretation or explanation commonly

leads us to a tentative interpretation that is based on relatively

hasty examination of a single example or case. Our tentative

explanation, as such, is not a threat to objectivity, but if we then

begin to trust it without further testing, we can be blinded to

other possibilities that we ignored at first glance. Our premature

explanation can become a tentative theory and then a ruling

theory, and our research becomes focused on proving that ruling

theory. The result is a blindness to evidence that disproves the

ruling theory or supports an alternate explanation. Only if the

original tentative hypothesis was by chance correct does our

research lead to any meaningful contribution to knowledge.

Seemingly less insidious is the working hypothesis. The working

hypothesis, we are told, is a hypothesis to be tested, not in order

to prove the hypothesis, but as a stimulus for study and fact-finding.

Nonetheless, the single working hypothesis can imperceptibly

degenerate into a ruling theory, and our desire to prove the

working hypothesis, despite evidence to the contrary, can

become as strong as the desire to prove the ruling theory.

Multiple Working HypothesesThe method of multiple working hypotheses involves the devel-

opment, prior to our research, of several hypotheses that might

explain the phenomenon we want to study. Many of these

hypotheses will be contradictory, so that some, if not all, will

prove to be false. However, the development of multiple

hypotheses prior to the research allows us avoid the trap of the

ruling hypothesis and thus makes it more likely that our research

will lead to meaningful results. We open-mindedly envision all

the possible explanations of the phenomenon to be studied,

including the possibility that none of explanations are correct

(“none of the above”) and the possibility that some new

explanation may emerge.

The method of multiple working hypotheses has several other

beneficial effects on one’s research. Careful study often shows

that a phenomenon is the result of several causes, not just one,

and the method of multiple working hypotheses obviously

makes it more likely that we will see the interaction of the sever-

al causes. The method also promotes much greater thoroughness

than research directed toward one hypothesis, leading to lines of

inquiry that we might otherwise overlook, and thus to evidence

and insights that single-minded research might never have

encountered. Thirdly, the method makes us much more likely to

see the imperfections in our knowledge and thus to avoid the pit-

fall of accepting weak or flawed evidence for one hypothesis

when another provides a more elegant solution.

Possible Drawbacks of the MethodThe method of multiple working hypotheses can have draw-

backs. One is that it is impossible to express multiple hypotheses

simultaneously, and thus there is a natural tendency to let one

take primacy. Keeping a written, not mental, list of our multiple

hypotheses is often a necessary solution to that problem.

Another problem is that an open mind may develop hypotheses

that are so difficult to test that evaluating them is nearly impossi-

ble. An example might be where three of our hypotheses are

testable by conventional field work, but a fourth requires drilling

of a deep borehole beyond our economic resources. This fourth

hypothesis need not paralyze our research, but it should provide

a reminder that none of the first three need be true.

A third possible problem is that of vacillation or indecision as we

balance the evidence for various hypotheses. Such vacillation

may be bad for the researcher, but such vacillation is preferable

to the premature rush to a false conclusion.

An ExampleThe field discovery of a breccia provides an excellent example of

the application of the method of multiple working hypotheses.

A breccia may form in many ways: by deposition as talus, by

collapse after dissolution of underlying evaporites or other soluble

rocks, by faulting, by bolide impact, or by other means. Each of

the possibilities can be supported by various field evidence, for

which we could look if we were evaluating all these hypotheses.


Kevin J. McMichael

First City Tower 713-655-97001001 Fannin, Suite 777 Fax 713-655-9709Houston, TX 77002 [email protected]

51 N. Knightsgate CircleThe Woodlands, Texas 77382

Office: (281) 367-1885 • Cell: (281) 788-9887E-mail: [email protected]

DAN SHAUGHNESSY

However, if we chose just one hypothesis, we might ignore other

evidence more clearly supportive of a different hypothesis. For

example, if we hypothesized that our breccia was the result of

cataclasis during faulting, we might find that the breccia

occurred along a fault. We would then accept our single hypoth-

esis and quit looking for additional information. However, if we

were using multiple working hypotheses and looked for evidence

supporting or disproving all our hypotheses, we might also

notice that the breccia was localized in a circular pattern along

just one part of the fault. Further examination might show that it

was accompanied by shatter cones. Armed with this additional

information, we would be more inclined to an interpretation

involving an impact that was by chance coincident with a fault.

By looking for evidence supportive of a variety of hypotheses,

we would have avoided an incorrect interpretation based

on coincidence.

SummaryIn using the method of multiple working hypotheses, we try to

openmindedly envision and list all the possible hypotheses that

could account for the phenomenon to be studied. This induces

greater care in ascertaining the facts and greater discrimination

and caution in drawing conclusions. Although our human

tendencies lead us toward the method of the ruling theory, the

method of multiple working hypotheses offers the best chance of

open-minded research that avoids false conclusions. ■

T.C. Chamberlin and the Method of Multiple WorkingHypothesesThe geologist Thomas Chrowder Chamberlin (1843-1928) was

president of the University of Wisconsin, director of the Walker

Museum at the University of Chicago, president of the American

Association for the Advancement of Science, and the founder

and editor of the Journal of Geology.

Chamberlin read his paper on “The method of multiple working

hypotheses” before the Society of Western Naturalists in 1889,

and it was published in Science in 1890 and the Journal of Geology

in 1897. It was reprinted in several journals during the subse-

quent seventy years.

This is a short modern encapsulation of some of the ideas in

Chamberlin’s original paper, and it should not be considered an

adequate substitute for the original paper. This encapsulation is

based on a version of the original paper republished in Science in

1965.

Chamberlin, T.C., 1890, The method of multiple working

hypotheses: Science (old series) v. 15, p. 92-96; reprinted 1965, v.

148, p. 754-759.

Chamberlin, T.C., 1897, The method of multiple working

hypotheses: Journal of Geology, v. 5, p. 837-848.

70

Houston G

eological Society B

ulletinO

ctober 2004

HO

US

T

ON

GEOLOG

ICA

L

1923 Application to Become a Member of the Houston Geological SocietyQualifications for Active Membership

1) Have a degree in geology or an allied geoscience from an accreditedcollege or university; or

2) Have a degree in science or engineering from an accredited collegeor university and have been engaged in the professional study orpractice of earth science for at least five (5) years.

Qualifications for Associate Membership (including students)1) Be involved in the application of the earth or allied sciences.2) Be a full-time student enrolled in geology or in the related sciences.

Annual Dues Expire Each June 30.Annual dues are $20.00; full-time students and emeritus members pay $10.00.

To the Executive Board: I hereby apply for ❑ Active or ❑ Associate membership in the Houston Geological Society and pledge to abideby its Constitution and Bylaws. ❑ Check here if a full-time student.

Name:Address:

Home Phone: Spouse’s Name:Email:Job Title:Company:Company Address:

Work Phone: Fax Number:Circle Preferred Mailing Address: Home OfficeProfessional Affiliations:❑ Active AAPG Others:

Professional Interest: Membership Directory ❑ Environmental Geology Preference❑ International E&P ❑ CD Rom❑ North American E&P (other than Gulf Coast) ❑ Printed❑ Gulf Coast E&P (onshore & offshore)

SchoolDegree Major Year



Earth Science Work Experience

Applicant’s Signature Date

Endorsement by HGS member (not required if active AAPG member)

Name:

Signature Date

Membership Chairman HGS Secretary

rev. 5/5/2003

Mail this application and payment to:Houston Geological Society10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290 Houston, TX 77024Telephone: 713-463-9476 Fax: 713-463-9160

Payment method:

■■ Check, ■■ VISA, ■■ MasterCard, ■■ American Express, ■■ Discover

Card # ______________________________Expiration Date: ______


Website Statistics

The HGS Website has really “come of age” since it was

converted to new, more interactive software in September,

2003. While we don’t have good statistics on website use before

then, the new software, among other benefits, provides us with

excellent usage statistics.

About all we could measure originally was “hits.” A “hit” is basi-

cally one access. For example, if a visitor read a page containing

two pictures, that was three hits, one for the text and one for each

image. We know, for example, that in the three years between

8 December, 1997, and 5 December, 2000, the HGS Website

received 156,435 hits. By comparison, the average today

is 1,600,000 hits per month. That’s an increase of more than

360-fold.

The new software also tells us that the average number of visitors

per month is 54,840 and that they read 191,160 pages — between

three and four pages per visitor — in a period of about 2.5

minutes. It’s not surprising that the most read pages are the jobs

area and the calendar.

Unfortunately, we cannot tell what percentage of our visitors are

members because there is no requirement that all visitors log in.

We can tell that most are from the Houston area and others are

from North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa and

Oceania — in that order of frequency. All US states and

Canadian provinces were represented in May, 2004, the month

I happened to check, as well as Mexico, Guatemala, Trinidad,

and the Grenadines. Most South American countries were also

represented.

If you are interested in more statistics on HGS website usage, I’ve

posted some charts at http://www.hgs.org/statistics.

Dues RenewalOctober first marked the end of the grace period for paying your

2004-2005 HGS dues. For example, this is your last HGS Bulletin

if you have not renewed. If you did not renew, that is also

the date that your website access changed from member to

non-member. If you had your resume posted on the website,

it has been deleted. However, your website user name and pass-

word are not affected, so don’t re-register, just continue to log on

as before and renew as soon as possible.

Dave Crane

HGS/GSH Webmaster

713/789-5916

[email protected]

DAVE CRANE


HGA and GeoWives News

HGA by Margaret Eisenhardt Jones

Our thanks to Sally Blackhall, First Vice President and Socials

Chairman, and to Suzie Stepanek, chairman of the September

HGA program at Magic Island. Many of us had never been there

before, despite being residents of Houston for many years. It was

a real treat and a great way to start the new club year.

I want to also express my thanks to all of the officers and com-

mittee chairpersons for the hard work done over the summer to

get everything organized and ready to go. Ladies, you have to be

on the Board to realize how much work it takes to make our club

the success that it is.

Our new Transportation Committee arranged rides for those

who otherwise would not have been able to go to Magic Island.

Our thanks to Edie and her volunteer drivers for a job well done.

Be sure to read the report by Sally Blackhall on the upcoming

December meeting. You won't want to miss it. There will be

another great treat in store for you.

HGA Social News

From First VP–Sally Blackhall

Our September event was an evening at Magic Island, September

23. Everyone enjoyed a wonderful candlelight dinner followed by

a delightful magic show full of illusions and comedy. Some of us

even stayed to dance the night away. A good time was had by all.

Our upcoming event will be our Christmas Luncheon, December

16, 2004, at the Lakeside Country Club. Our musical guest will be

Steve and Diana Warner, known as The Ivory Touch.

In addition we have the following events scheduled in 2004–2005:

• Bridge/Game Day, February 14, 2005, at Junior League

• March 31, 2005, Spring Luncheon and Fashion Show with

fashions by Harrold Powell at Houston Racquet Club

• May 12, 2005, Business Luncheon with entertainment by The

Kingsmen at The Briar Club

The HGA also has two bridge groups that you may wish to learn

about and join:

1. Second Thursday of the month “Cinco-Mas” plays bridge at

the Junior League. For reservations call Audrey Tompkins at

713-686-0005.

2. Third Wednesday of the month “Petroleum Club Ladies

Bridge” meets at the Petroleum Club. For reservations call

Daisy Wood at 713-977-7319.

GeoWives

Debra Munsell reminds us that there will be no formal Geo

Wives meeting in October. We want to support the HGS Shrimp

Peel on October 2, 2004, with our presence. We are looking

forward to a good time at the Sam Houston Racetrack. To make

reservations call the HGS Office 713-463-9476.GeoWives applications on page 69

You are invited to become a member ofHouston Geological Auxiliary

2004–2005 dues are $20.00make check payable to Houston Geological Auxiliary and mail to: Margaret Jones • 1407 Lakecliff Dr. • Houston, Texas 77077

HGA YEARBOOK INFORMATIONLast Name First Name Name Tag

Spouse Name Name Tag HGS Members Company

Home Phone Business Phone Business Fax( ) ( ) ( )

Street Address City Zip

Birthday, Month, Day ONLY Email Address Home Fax( )


Roberts & AssociatesCertified Public Accountants and Consultants

(Taxes, consulting, oil & gas)

Bill Roberts, CPA

(713) 828-7355711 El Friar Tuck Ln. Fax (713) 263-9715Houston, Texas 77024 email:[email protected]

SED-STRAT Geoscience Consultants, Inc Supporting the extraction industry to find commercial oil and

natural gas and adding value to their assets using integrated geological analysis

George D. Klein, PhD TX Registered Geologist #440

AAPG-DPA Certified Petroleum Geologist #5662

7318 Glendale Dr. (MC-96) (281) 937-9436Sugar Land, TX, USA FAX: (281) 937-9456E-mail: [email protected]


[email protected]

Seismic Data Processing SeisUP©

Systems

SalesReed Haythorne

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Houston, Texas 77002

JAMES B. BENNETTGeology

RANDALL SCHOTTGeophysics

Bus. (713)650-1378

Bored? ROCK YOUR WORLDJoin the

Houston Gem & Mineral SocietyField trips, publications, classes,

programs, shows and shop

www.hgms.org 281-530-0942

3-D Seismic Interpretation, FTG Gravity Modeling,Seismic Inversion and AVO analysis

6001 Savoy, Suite 110 • Houston, Texas 77036 (713) 981-4650 • (281) 242-0639

E-mail: [email protected]: www.hunter3dinc.com

P.O. BOX 140637BOISE, ID 83714

BUS. 208-854-1037RES. 208-854-1038FAX. 208-854-1029

JAMES S. CLASSENLooking for close-in deals

10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290Houston, Texas 77024www.hgs.org

Office: 713-463-9476Office Fax: 713-463-9160

[email protected]

Lilly HargraveAdvertising Coordinator

76 Houston Geological Society Bulletin October 2004October 2004 Houston Geological Society Bulletin 76

7500 SAN FELIPE, SUITE 250HOUSTON, TEXAS 77063

E-mail: [email protected]

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Geosolutions & Interpretations, LLCGeology Geophysics Engineering

Phone: (281) 679 0942Fax: (281) 679 0952Mobile: (281) 772 5826800 Tully Rd, Suite 240KHouston, TX, 77079

E_Mail: [email protected]://www.geointerpretations.com

Gerardo JagerPresident

H O U S T O NG E O L O G I C A L S O C I E T Y

10575 Katy Freeway, Suite 290 • Houston, TX 77024

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