classes 1 & 2: financial markets amidst...
TRANSCRIPT
Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF
Jun Pan
Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF)Shanghai Jiao Tong University
March 27, 2020
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 1 / 35
Outline
During the current Covid-19 crisis, the price discovery function of financial marketsbecomes all the more important. Financial market should remain open for:
▶ Timely aggregation and processing of otherwise diverse information.▶ Efficient allocation and distribution of capital and resources.
Comparisons to past crises:▶ 1987: stock market crash.▶ 2008: financial crisis.▶ 2020: ?
The politics of financial markets:▶ Central banks and governments: their respective responses and responsibilities.▶ Collisions of states’ interests: an all-out war on oil price in 2020 amid Covid-19.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 2 / 35
The Presence of Capital Markets in Economy, US and China
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
5
10
15
20
25GDP in USD Trillion
$21.4T
$14.1T
GDP USGDP China
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Ratio of Stock to GDP (%)
176%
66%
89%
US (NYSE+NASDAQ+AMEX)China (SH+SZ)China (SH+SZ+HK+US)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
50
100
150
200
250Ratio of Bond to GDP (%)
203%
98%
Bond USBond China
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
5
10
15
20
25Ratio of Mutual Fund to Stock + Bond (%)
21%
7%
Mutual Fund USMutual Fund China
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 3 / 35
Equity Markets’ Reactions to Covid-19: US and China
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
Mar 25
Mar 23
-11.98% Mar 16:Monday
-9.51% Mar 12:Thursday
-7.6% Mar 9:
-3.35% Feb 24:
-4.42% Feb 27:
-2.75% Jan 23:
-7.72% Feb 3:
-3.71% Feb 28:
Mar 10:1.82%
SPXSSE
1/23: Wuhan lockdown.2/04: Covid19 test approved by FDA.2/12: CDC: Faulty virus tests.2/24: Virus widely spread outside China.2/25: Trump: USA under control.2/26: Trump: Pence leads virus response.2/27: CDC: test criteria revised.3/03: Fed: rate cut by 50 bps.3/10: President Xi visits Wuhan.3/11: Trump: TV address.3/12: Fed: injects $1.5T via term repo.3/13: Trump: national emergency.3/15: Fed: rate to zero and $700B QE.3/17: Fed: CP funding & PD credit facility.3/18: Fed: MMMF liquidity facility.3/23: Fed: Infinite QE announced at 8 am.3/25: Senate: $2T relief bill passed 96-0.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 4 / 35
Top 10 Worst One-Day SPX Returns
Rank SPX Ret VIX SSE Ret(%) (%) (%)
1 10/19/1987 -20.47 150.192 3/16/2020 -11.98 82.69 -3.403 3/12/2020 -9.51 75.47 -1.524 10/15/2008 -9.03 69.25 -1.125 12/1/2008 -8.93 68.51 1.256 9/29/2008 -8.79 46.72 0.007 10/26/1987 -8.28 113.338 10/9/2008 -7.62 63.92 -0.849 3/9/2020 -7.60 54.46 -3.0110 10/27/1997 -6.87 31.12 4.88
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15Daily SPX Returns (%)
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 5 / 35
Past Crises: SPX vs. SSE
Oct Nov Dec Jan1997
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.151997 Asian Crisis
SPXSSE
Jul 1998 Aug 1998 Sep 1998 Oct 1998 Nov 1998 Dec 1998 Jan 1999 Feb 19990.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.151998 LTCM Crisis
SPXSSE
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan2001
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.052001/9/11 Terrorist Attack
SPXSSE
Sep 2008 Nov 2008 Jan 2009 Mar 2009 May 20090.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.22008 Crisis
SPXSSE
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 6 / 35
Cumulative Capital Gains, SPX vs SSE
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50Since 1991
SPXSSE
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5Since 2000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5Since 2010
Jan 2017 Jul 2017 Jan 2018 Jul 2018 Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 20200.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5Since Trump Presidency
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 7 / 35
Correlations: SPX and SSE
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
corr
elat
ion
(%)
EWMA Correlation of SPX and SSE using 5-Day Returns
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 8 / 35
Review: US and Chinese Financial Markets
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 9 / 35
Traditional Safe Havens and Fear Gauges in 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
0.5
1
1.5
210-Year US Treasury (%)
Mar 16Rate to 0
Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Mar 3: Rate Cut
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
1450
1500
1550
1600
1650
1700Gold ($)
Mar 16
Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9Feb 24
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
YEN (Yen/$)
Mar 16Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90COBE VIX (%)
Mar 16
Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18US Treasury Yield VIX (%)
Mar 16
Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
Investment Grade CDX Index
Mar 16Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 10 / 35
The Global Dollar Shortage in 2020
Jan Feb Mar Apr2020
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103US Dollar Index
Mar 16
Mar 12
Feb 27
Mar 9
Feb 24
Mar 3: Rate Cut
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 11 / 35
Capital Markets Amidst Covid-19Daily movements measured in their respective historical standard deviations (sigma):
SPX UST USD Yen Gold VIX TVIX -CDXret ∆y ret ret ret chg chg chg
2/24/2020 -3.3 -1.2 0.2 1.4 1.6 5.0 2.1 1.72/25/2020 -3.0 -0.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.9 1.8 -0.4 1.02/26/2020 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.6 0.82/27/2020 -4.4 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.4 7.3 1.6 1.82/28/2020 -0.8 -2.6 -0.8 2.9 -3.0 0.6 3.6 1.63/2/2020 4.6 -0.5 -1.6 0.0 0.5 -4.2 -2.9 0.23/3/2020 -2.8 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.23/4/2020 4.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 -3.1 -2.6 -0.93/5/2020 -3.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.8 1.0 4.8 2.0 2.83/6/2020 -1.7 -2.8 -1.8 1.9 0.4 1.5 9.1 5.23/9/2020 -7.5 -3.1 -2.2 4.2 -0.1 7.9 12.3 13.4
3/10/2020 4.9 3.4 3.2 -1.8 -0.6 -4.5 -10.5 -5.63/11/2020 -4.8 0.9 0.2 -1.7 -0.3 4.2 1.4 3.43/12/2020 -9.4 0.9 2.0 -1.3 -3.9 13.6 7.4 7.83/13/2020 9.2 0.9 2.7 -2.1 -2.0 -11.1 -11.4 -4.93/16/2020 -11.9 -3.2 -1.4 -0.0 -1.5 15.7 2.5 -0.0
-6 -5.5 -5 -4.5 -4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -20
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Probability of Tail Events (%)
2.28%
0.13%
0.62%
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 12 / 35
Capital Markets Amidst Covid-19Daily movements measured in their respective historical standard deviations (sigma):
SPX UST USD Yen Gold VIX TVIX -CDXret ∆y ret ret ret chg chg chg
2/24/2020 -3.3 -1.2 0.2 1.4 1.6 5.0 2.1 1.72/25/2020 -3.0 -0.8 -0.8 0.8 -0.9 1.8 -0.4 1.02/26/2020 -0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.2 0.6 0.82/27/2020 -4.4 -0.5 -1.0 0.8 0.4 7.3 1.6 1.82/28/2020 -0.8 -2.6 -0.8 2.9 -3.0 0.6 3.6 1.63/2/2020 4.6 -0.5 -1.6 0.0 0.5 -4.2 -2.9 0.23/3/2020 -2.8 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.23/4/2020 4.2 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 -3.1 -2.6 -0.93/5/2020 -3.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.8 1.0 4.8 2.0 2.83/6/2020 -1.7 -2.8 -1.8 1.9 0.4 1.5 9.1 5.23/9/2020 -7.5 -3.1 -2.2 4.2 -0.1 7.9 12.3 13.4
3/10/2020 4.9 3.4 3.2 -1.8 -0.6 -4.5 -10.5 -5.63/11/2020 -4.8 0.9 0.2 -1.7 -0.3 4.2 1.4 3.43/12/2020 -9.4 0.9 2.0 -1.3 -3.9 13.6 7.4 7.83/13/2020 9.2 0.9 2.7 -2.1 -2.0 -11.1 -11.4 -4.93/16/2020 -11.9 -3.2 -1.4 -0.0 -1.5 15.7 2.5 -0.0
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 13 / 35
The 10 Worst Performing Days of SPX since 1964
Daily movements measured in their respective historical standard deviations (sigma):
SPX UST USD Yen Gold VIX TVIX -CDX Oilret ∆y ret ret ret chg chg chg ret
10/19/1987 -20.3 -1.2 -2.0 1.5 2.9 -0.33/16/2020 -11.9 -3.2 -1.4 -0.0 -1.5 15.7 2.5 -0.0 -3.53/12/2020 -9.4 0.9 2.0 -1.3 -3.9 13.6 7.4 7.8 -3.2
10/15/2008 -9.0 -0.6 1.7 1.7 0.8 8.9 -1.1 6.3 -2.612/1/2008 -8.9 -3.2 0.5 2.4 -3.9 8.4 2.6 1.9 -1.79/29/2008 -8.7 -3.7 1.4 1.7 0.8 7.6 3.6 1.4 -1.7
10/26/1987 -8.2 -2.8 -0.5 1.9 0.6 -0.310/9/2008 -7.5 1.8 0.6 -1.1 -1.4 4.0 0.2 4.0 0.43/9/2020 -7.5 -3.1 -2.2 4.2 -0.1 7.9 12.3 13.4 -6.8
10/27/1997 -6.8 -1.5 -1.5 -0.6 -1.3 5.0 0.0
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 14 / 35
Review: The Broad Spectrum of Capital Markets
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 15 / 35
Comparisons of 1987, 2008, and 2020
President: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Donald TrumpFed Chair: Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Jerome Powell10-Year Treasury: 10% in 1987, 3.5-4% in 2008, and 1% in 2020.Fed Fund Rates:
▶ 1987/10: 7.25% → 6.75% → 6.5% on Feb 10.▶ 2008/10: 2.0% → 1.5% → 1.0% → 0.25% on Dec 16.▶ 2020/03: 1.75 → 1.25% → 0.25% on March 16.
Macroeconomic Fundamentals:▶ 1987: GDP = 3.5%, Unemployment = 5.7%, Inflation = 4.4%.▶ 2008: GDP = -0.1%, Unemployment = 7.3%, Inflation = 0.1%. (Recession)▶ 2020: ? (2019: GDP = 2.1%, Unemployment = 3.5%, Inflation = 2.3%)
Causes: 1987 inconclusive, 2008 financial industry, 2020 virus.My take: 1987 liquidity crisis, 2008 credit crisis, and 2020 structural crisis.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 16 / 35
Macroeconomic IndicatorsGDP, Inflation, and Unemployment (1958-2019)
Martin Burns Volcker Greenspan Bernanke
Yellen
Powell
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Rat
es (
%)
Real GDP (avg = 3.12%) Core Inflation (avg = 3.67%) Unemployment (avg = 6%)
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 17 / 35
Fear of the Unknown Amidst Covid-19
Asset prices are driven by cash flow expectations and risk aversion:
P =D (1 + g)
r − g
The unprecedented sudden stop in US economic activity disrupts the cash flow Dand its expected growth g. The biggest unknown: the duration of this disruption.Goldman Sachs forecasts:
▶ Quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rates: −6% in Q1, −24% in Q2, +12%in Q3, +10% in Q4. The full-year Q4/Q4 growth: −3.1%.
▶ The largest increase and the highest level on record of initial jobless claims:rose to 2.25 million for the week of March 15-21. (Official release: March 26)
The fear of the unknown drives up the risk aversion and the discount rate r.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 18 / 35
2020: Foremost a Health Crisis
As we’ve just endured for the past two months in China, the virus was extremelydifficult to contain.Governments in the West have been informed for weeks. Instead of using thisheadstart to protect its own citizens, parts of the US government establishment,including the White House, have pushed to downplay the risk.At a fundamental level, the US governing structure and philosophy makes it unableand unwilling to adopt the measures taken by the Chinese government.Absent effective containment, this health crisis can escalate into an economic crisis:
▶ Financial markets, reflecting this reality, have priced in an economic recessionwith high probabilities.
▶ The markets have also priced in an incoming $1T pandemic relief bill forbusinesses and families.
▶ But what if the virus lingers on for months? This $1T will not be enough.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 19 / 35
Pre-Existing Conditions
All of this happens at a time of large deficits, high leverage, and limited room formonetary policy:
▶ Government deficits at $1T, hiked by 2017 Trump tax cuts.▶ Total debt is 333% of GDP, federal debt 101% of GDP, non-financial corporate
debt 74% of GDP.▶ Extremely low long-term rates and an existing QE at $4T from 2008 crisis.
The post-2008 banking rules to prevent another “2008” are making “2020” worse:▶ Cracks in almost all markets: the MBS, credit, even the US Treasury market.▶ Cash in USD becomes the only safe haven.▶ To avoid a potential crisis in liquidity, the Fed is injecting liquidity:
⋆ at an unprecedented speed,⋆ with an unprecedented magnitude,⋆ covering an unprecedented range.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 20 / 35
US Debt to GDP
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 21 / 35
Fed: Liquidifying the Markets
One week in 2020 feels like one month in 2008:3/03: Emergency rate cut by 50 bps.3/12: Injects $1.5T via term repo.3/15: Fed fund rate to zero.3/15: $700B QE: $200B in MBS and $500B in Treasury.3/17: Commercial paper funding facility (CPFF).3/17: Primary dealer credit facility (PDCF).3/18: Money market mutual fund liquidity facility (MMFL).3/20: Expand MMFL to include short-term muni debt.3/20: Expand dollar funding around the world.3/20: $1T overnight repo per day till the end of March.3/23: Extensive measures to support the economy.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 22 / 35
Financial Markets in 1987, 2008, and 2020
Oct 1987 Jan 1988 Apr 1988 Jul 1988 Oct 198830
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1301987
SPX
68%Oil
USDUST
Gold
Sep 2008 Nov 2008 Jan 2009 Mar 2009 May 2009 Jul 2009 Sep 200930
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1302008
SPX
53%
Oil
32%
USDUST
Gold
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2020
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1302020
SPX 81%
Oil 40%
USD 103%UST 107%Gold107%
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 23 / 35
Fear Gauge in 1987, 2008, and 2020
Oct 1987 Jan 1988 Apr 1988 Jul 1988 Oct 1988
1
2
3
4
5
6
71987
VIX
Sep 2008 Nov 2008 Jan 2009 Mar 2009 May 2009 Jul 2009 Sep 2009
1
2
3
4
5
6
72008
VIXTYVIX
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2020
1
2
3
4
5
6
72020
VIX
TYVIX
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 24 / 35
Review: Comparison of 2020 with Prior Crises
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 25 / 35
The OPEC-Russia Blowup and All-Out Oil Price War
Jan 10 Jan 24 Feb 07 Feb 21 Mar 062020
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
OPEC+ Meets in Vienna Mar 5-6
"OPEC-Russia Blowup" Mar 9
"Black Thursday" Mar 12Oil Price (left axis)S&P500 Index (right axis)
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 26 / 35
The Geopolitics of Oil Prices
On March 5-6, Saudi Arabia and other big OPEC countries and Russia gathered inVienna to plan production cuts to put a floor under falling prices due to theoutbreak of Coronavirus.Moscow refused to sign on to Saudi Arabia’s proposed cuts, sending the price of oilsharply down. Riyadh responded by slashing its oil prices and later announced plansto massively increase oil output, further driving down the price of oil.For Russia and Saudi Arabia, both more or less dependent on oil sales to fund theirnational budgets, it is a dangerous game of chicken.“It reminds me of the First World War, when France and Germany went to warthinking they’d be home by Christmas, and spent four years in the trenches.”
Source: Standish and Johnson (2020), Foreign Policy.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 27 / 35
History of Oil Prices
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180Inflation Adjusted Oil Prices ($)
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 28 / 35
Russia Strikes Back?
Russia spent the last five years tightening its budget and building up $550 billion inreserves, allowing it to cope with oil prices $25-$30 a barrel for up to a decade.That war chest is the result of Moscow’s decision to restructure its economy after itwas pushed into recession in 2015, following Western sanctions over the annexationof Crimea and OPEC’s decision to open the spigots the year before.Driving the price down would both inflict economic harm on the United States andundermine its ability to wield its favorite tool of international coercion: sanctions.
Source: Standish and Johnson (2020), Foreign Policy.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 29 / 35
Vulnerable US Shale Producers
Loaded with high-yielding debt, US shale producers are a fuse that could blow upthe whole US corporate debt market. If Russia wants to push buttons to causechaos in the United States, that’s a good one.That’s why some experts are calling for a very targeted government intervention,not to save the billionaire oil executives, but to forestall a wider credit collapse.But the US shale industry has proved resilient in the past, as when OPEC tried tosmother it in 2014-2015 with a flood of cheap oil. When prices fall, US productionfalls, just enough to get prices up, and then rigs start pumping again – aself-regulating mechanism.
Source: Standish and Johnson (2020), Foreign Policy.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 30 / 35
Saudi: Recklessness or Expanding Market Share?
Saudi Arabia has cash reserves to withstand lower prices, though less than it did in2014 – and less than Russia does today, given its budget imperatives. The Saudifinancial war chest could take that for about four years at best – but Riyadh isclearly hoping for a short and sharp oil war.On the other hand, by raising exports from 7-plus million barrels a day to 9-plusmillion barrels a day, or even more, Saudi Arabia can make the same amount ofmoney as it would have in a world without Russian cooperation, but snatching moremarket share.
Source: Standish and Johnson (2020), Foreign Policy.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 31 / 35
Largest One-Day Percentage Drops in Oil Prices
Daily movements measured in their respective historical standard deviations (sigma):
Date Oil SPX USD EUR UST CAN NOR DAN CHF YEN VIX Level1/17/1991 -12.2 3.7 -4.1 3.9 -2.9 -1.2 2.1 2.7 1.1 3.4 27.452/3/1986 -7.0 1.0 0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -1.6 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 1.24/1/1986 -6.9 -1.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.9 0.5 -0.4 0.5 1.73/9/2020 -6.8 -7.6 -2.2 1.8 -3.1 -1.7 -3.9 1.6 1.2 4.2 54.46
4/30/1974 -5.5 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.210/22/1990 -4.5 0.7 1.6 -1.4 0.2 -0.9 -0.0 -0.8 -1.0 -0.0 27.27
2/1/1982 -4.5 -2.2 2.4 -0.8 6.8 -0.9 -1.0 -2.1 -2.1 -2.69/24/2001 -4.4 3.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.3 -1.5 -0.1 -2.0 -1.1 37.75
12/17/1998 -4.2 1.5 -0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 2.6 0.3 -0.4 -0.3 27.9611/30/1990 -4.1 1.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 -1.7 -1.6 -1.5 -2.9 22.16
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 32 / 35
US Shale Companies: Potential Casualties of Oil-Price War
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 33 / 35
Review: The Politics of Financial Markets
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 34 / 35
Review: Main Takeaways
Comparison of the US and Chinese markets.The broad spectrum of capital markets and their performance during crises.Comparison with past crises.The politics of financial markets.
Financial Markets, Spring 2020, SAIF Classes 1 & 2: Financial Markets Amidst Covid-19 Jun Pan 35 / 35