Class Project Report, May 2003 ME/CE 449 Sustainable Air Quality

Causality of US Sulfur Production and Emission Trends

By

James Agan, Kate Miller, Cat Reid, Jason Reynolds

Instructor

Rudolf B. Husar

Washington University, St. Louis, MO

Instructions

• Alan: 3, 6, 10, 11, 12

• Kate: 17- 23

• Cat: 4, 5, 14, 15, 16

• Jason: 7, 8, 9, 13, 24

• For each slide, add a very concise but informative description; 2-3 bullets

• It should contain key facts or observations

• Enter these under the slide in the ‘speakers note’

Population - Energy/Goods Consumption– Materials Flow - Emissions

Ek = cjk EMj = bij cjk GEi = ai bij cjk P

Industr. Energy

Transp. Energy

ResCom.Engy

Coal

Oil

GasElectric Energy

SOx

NOx

HC

PM

Goods &Energy,(GE) i Fuels&Mater.(FM), j Emission (EM), k

Ind. Chemicals

Industr. Goods

Pop., P

Metals

Mercury

ai

Consump./Person

bij

Fuels/Energy

cjk

Emission/Fuel-

j ji i i j

Consumption of Goods and Energy: GE = ai P

Fuels and Materials Flow: FM = ai bij P

Emission of Pollutants: EM = ai bij cjk P

Industrial Prod.

Transportation

ResComercial

EconMeasure(EM)

US Population Trends

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900 1950 2000 2050

Mill

ions

-3.00%

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

1900 1950 2000 2050

Births Deaths Migration

Regional Population Projections

Regional Population Projections

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year

Popu

lation

(tho

usan

ds)

R1 - Pacific Coast R2 - Mountain States R3 - Southwest

R4 - Great Plains R5 - Great Lakes R6 - South

R7 - Northeast R8 - Noncontinental US

Cat, place here a regional trend relative to 1995 to see regional growth rates

Use this map to show regions

National Income by Industry Group/Person

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Inco

me,

$ (

1996

)

Res/com

Industrial

Transportation 0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Fraction of Total Income

Trend by Ind. Group

1970 = 1

Coal Production and S Content

Sulfur Transfer by Fuels and Minerals: Theory

Coal Sulfur Flow in 1980 and 1998

US Coal Production by Region

• Coal production in the US occurred over five major producing regions.• The coal production over the eastern US has remained roughly constant throughout the century.• The sharp increase since the 1980s is due to the addition of western coal.

Trend of Average Coal S Content

Flue Gas Desulfurisation (FGD) of El. Util. Coal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1900 1950 2000 2050

Ca

pa

city

, G

iga

Wa

tts

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Fra

cti

on

FGD Capacity Coal El. Util.Capacity FGD Fraction

Sulfur Flow Diagram (Tentative)

Mineral Mining Production Consumption

AirLandWater

S Stocks Exp/Imp Raw

Fuel Mining Refining Combustion

Minerals Flow for GoodsMetals, Frasch, Pyrites

Fuels Flow for EnergyCoal, Oil, Gas

Exp/Imp Proc

Ex/Im Raw Ex/Im Processed

Exp/Imp AirEx/Im Water

S as Pollution S as Goods

US Industrial Sulfur: Supply and Demand Trend

US S Budget

S StocksExp/Imp

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

ExportsImports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

US SupplyConsumption

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1950 2000 2050

Sulfur Stock

Stock Change

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

S RecoveredS Mined

US S Supply US S Demand

Source http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/of01-006/sulfur.xls

Total S Mobilized and Recovered

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

Mill

ion

Ton

s/yr

CoalSMob OilSMob NGasSMobil

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

Mill

ion

To

ns/

yr

PetroleumSRec NatGasSRec MetalSRec

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1900 1950 2000 2050

Mill

ion

To

ns/

yr

Pyrites S Mined Frash S Mined MetalsSMob

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900 1950 2000 2050

S RecoveredTotMobilized

Mobilized in Fuels

Mobilized in Minerals

Recovered from Fuels &

Min.

Energy Consumption and Energy/$

Energy Consum prion per Sector

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

1900 1950 2000 2050

CE+RE(Bbtu)

IE (Bbtu) TE (BBtu)

Energy/$ in Sector

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18

0.2

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

CE+RE(Bbtu)/$

IE (Bbtu)/$

TE (BBtu)/$ Tot Energy(Bbtu)/$

Energy/$, Relative Trend s ince 1970

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

CE+RE(Bbtu)/$,Norm

IE (Bbtu)/$,Norm

TE (BBtu)/$,Norm Tot Energy(Bbtu)/$,Norm

SOx Emission Factor (Sox/Energy)

SOx per sector

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

CommResTotal IndRCTR TE Total

SOx/Enegy in Sector

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

CommRes SOx/ComRes EnergyInd SOx/Ind EnergyTransp Sox/ TranspEnegySox/Energy, All Sectors

SOx/Enegy in Sector, Relative Trend Since 1970

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

CommRes SOx/ComRes EnergyInd SOx/Ind EnergyTransp Sox/ TranspEnegySox/Energy, All Sectors

SOx Emission Trend By Industry Group and by

Fuel/Material

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

ElUtil Ind RecComm Transport Metals Total

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

ElUtil Ind RecComm Transport Metals

Electric Utility & Metals Smelting

FUEL COM B. ELEC. UTIL.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SO

2, 1

00 T

on

s/yr

El. Util CoalTot OilTot GasTot OtherTot

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Metal copper lead Ferrous Metals Processing

Industrial FUEL COM B. INDUSTRIAL

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

SO

2, 1

000

Tons

/ye

Industrial CoalTot OilTot GasTot OtherTot

CHEMICAL & ALLIED PRODUCT MFG

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SO

2, 1

000

To

ns/

yr

Chemical sulfur compounds

Other Chemical Mfg Agricultural Chemical Mfg

PETROLEUM & RELATED INDUSTRIES

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

SO

2, 1

000

Tons

/yr

Petroleum Petroleum Ref ineries & Related Industries other pretroleum

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

OtherInd Wood, Pulp & Paper cement mfg other

Commercial-Residential

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Other Fuel ComCoal CommOil ResCoal ResOil

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

MiscArea Other Combustion

Transportation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

On Road Light-Duty Gas Vehicles & MotorcyclesLight-Duty Gas Trucks Heavy-Duty Gas VehiclesDiesels

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

NonRoad Marine Vessels Railroads Non-Road Diesel

SOX Emission Factors for Industry Groups