““Civilization exists by Civilization exists by geological consentgeological consent . . . . . .

subject to change without notice!”subject to change without notice!” Will Durant, 1926Will Durant, 1926

San Francisco BaySan Francisco BayThrough TimeThrough Time

Jere H. Lipps, UCMP BerkeleyJere H. Lipps, UCMP Berkeley

San Francisco BaySan Francisco Bay

Largest estuaryLargest estuarywest Americas.west Americas.300+ sq mi300+ sq mi

Ave. depth=18 ftAve. depth=18 ftDrains much ofDrains much of

California.California.7 million people7 million people

live in area.live in area.Large industrialLarge industrial

base.base.

San Francisco Bay & DeltaSan Francisco Bay & DeltaA very shallow, ephemeral estuaryA very shallow, ephemeral estuary

Drainage to SF Bay Drainage to SF Bay & Delta& Delta

~152,000 km~152,000 km22..40% of California.40% of California.Mean annual flow = 600 Mean annual flow = 600 mm33/sec./sec.Sediment = 4.2 X 10Sediment = 4.2 X 1066

tons/yeartons/year

Human Impacts (years ago)Human Impacts (years ago)• 13,000: Arrival by sea and/or land13,000: Arrival by sea and/or land• 8,000: Began harvesting the new bay8,000: Began harvesting the new bay• 2-3000: Built shell mounds2-3000: Built shell mounds• 250: Europeans arrived; Native Americans 250: Europeans arrived; Native Americans

declineddeclined• 160: California won from Mexico, Gold Rush160: California won from Mexico, Gold Rush• 135: Bay filling began135: Bay filling began• 100: Industrialization and development began 100: Industrialization and development began

in earnestin earnest

> > 100: Industrial global warming100: Industrial global warming

Subject to:Subject to:

Sea level changes.Sea level changes.Earthquakes.Earthquakes.Devastating fires.Devastating fires.Population Population

increase.increase.Pollution.Pollution.Invasions.Invasions.

History Matters!History Matters!

Conservation, Ecology Conservation, Ecology and Evolutionary and Evolutionary

Biology as Historical Biology as Historical SciencesSciences

What We Can What We Can ControlControl

• RadioactivityRadioactivity• Destruction of HabitatsDestruction of Habitats• Chemical PollutionChemical Pollution• Genetic DepletionGenetic Depletion• Climate ChangeClimate Change

What We Cannot ControlWhat We Cannot Control

• Plate TectonicsPlate Tectonics• Sedimentation* Sedimentation* • Global Climate Change*Global Climate Change*• Glacial MeltingGlacial Melting• Sea Level ChangesSea Level Changes• Natural Changes in Geology & Natural Changes in Geology &

Biology*Biology*

What’s the Problem?What’s the Problem?

Nature Us

California: Always ChangingCalifornia: Always Changing

From Hall 2005From Hall 2005

Climate: Climate: Always ChangingAlways Changing

High Latitude Temperature High Latitude Temperature Changes Inferred from Changes Inferred from

Deep Sea Isotopic RecordsDeep Sea Isotopic Records

Zachos et al. 2001Zachos et al. 2001

Temp C: 0 4 8 12

How Do We Know?How Do We Know?

Oxygen isotopes of ice or microfossilsOxygen isotopes of ice or microfossils• 1616O, O, 1717O and O and 1818OO

• 8 protons8 protons

• 8, 9 and 10 neutrons = different masses8, 9 and 10 neutrons = different masses

• Each behaves differentlyEach behaves differently

• Warmer water = more Warmer water = more 1818OO

• More ice = more More ice = more 1818O O

•

Earth to Sun Relationship: Earth to Sun Relationship: Orbit, Tilt, EquinoxesOrbit, Tilt, Equinoxes

Glacials

Interglacials

Climate/Sea Level Curve for Climate/Sea Level Curve for the Past 500,000 Yearsthe Past 500,000 Years

1010 100100 200200 300300 400400 500500

years X 1000years X 1000

p.s.l.p.s.l.SF Bay = 7XSF Bay = 7X

No SF BayNo SF Bay

Mostly, SF Bay was a river valleyMostly, SF Bay was a river valley

Glacial EarthGlacial Earth

What is Global Warming?What is Global Warming?• Certain gases in atmosphere trap heat, Certain gases in atmosphere trap heat,

like in a Greenhouse.like in a Greenhouse.

• COCO22, CO, CH, CO, CH44, NO, & others., NO, & others.

• Contributed by volcanoes, some other Contributed by volcanoes, some other sources, and now human activities.sources, and now human activities.

• Nature can’t remove it fast enough.Nature can’t remove it fast enough.

• Atmosphere & ocean linked. Both Atmosphere & ocean linked. Both warm, not necessarily smoothly.warm, not necessarily smoothly.

• Venus & Mars are Greenhouse planets.Venus & Mars are Greenhouse planets.

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

• Water Vapor Water Vapor HH22OO

• Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide COCO22

• Methane Methane CHCH44

• Chloroflourocarbons Chloroflourocarbons (CFCs)(CFCs)

• Ozone Ozone OO33

• Nitrous oxide Nitrous oxide NONO

The Carbon CycleThe Carbon Cycle• An atmosphere - terrestrial An atmosphere - terrestrial

biosphere loop. biosphere loop.

• A terrestrial biosphere-A terrestrial biosphere-geosphere-hydrosphere loop.geosphere-hydrosphere loop.

• An atmosphere-geosphere-An atmosphere-geosphere-hydrosphere loop.hydrosphere loop.

Temperature & CO2 VariationsTemperature & CO2 VariationsLast 420,000 yearsLast 420,000 years

Temperature & CO2 VariationsTemperature & CO2 VariationsLast 18,000 yearsLast 18,000 years

Temperature & CO2 VariationsTemperature & CO2 VariationsLast 50 yearsLast 50 years

Greenhouse ChangesGreenhouse Changes

Natural & Human Climate ChangeNatural & Human Climate Change

Courtesy ofCourtesy ofKen ToweKen Towe

Gre

enh

ouse

Eff

ects

Gre

enh

ouse

Eff

ects 1)1) Increasing COIncreasing CO22

2)2) Increasing HIncreasing H22O: FloodingO: Flooding

3)3) Increasing El Nino eventsIncreasing El Nino events

4)4) Increasing temperature: 8-12Increasing temperature: 8-12OOCC

5)5) Sea level rising: Up to 8+ mSea level rising: Up to 8+ m

6)6) Increased hurricane & tornado occurrence/intensityIncreased hurricane & tornado occurrence/intensity

7)7) Redistribution of crops & species Redistribution of crops & species

8)8) Increasing diseasesIncreasing diseases

9)9) Major changes in oceans & biotasMajor changes in oceans & biotas

Patagonia: Always ChangingPatagonia: Always ChangingGlacial RetreatGlacial Retreat

80 m since 2000; 80 m since 2000; more to come in next 30 yearsmore to come in next 30 years

San Francisco: San Francisco: Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

Potential Sea Level RisePotential Sea Level Rise

East Antarctica 26,039,200kmEast Antarctica 26,039,200km3 3 64.80m64.80mWest Antarctica 3,262,000kmWest Antarctica 3,262,000km33 8.06m 8.06mAntarctic Antarctic

Peninsula 227,100kmPeninsula 227,100km33 .46m .46mGreenland 2,620,000kmGreenland 2,620,000km33 6.55m 6.55mAll other ice 180,000kmAll other ice 180,000km33 .45m .45m

TOTALS: 32,328,000kmTOTALS: 32,328,000km3 3 80.32m80.32m

When?When?

1000’s of years: Natural variations.1000’s of years: Natural variations.

100’s of years: Human effects.100’s of years: Human effects.

10’s of years: Sudden release of 10’s of years: Sudden release of CH CH44 clathrates, clathrates,

Catastrophic collapse Catastrophic collapse of ice sheets.of ice sheets.

and inferred forand inferred forthe future. ~8 mthe future. ~8 msea level rise.sea level rise.

Road Damage: 1.5 m RiseRoad Damage: 1.5 m Rise

Pacific InstitutePacific Institute

Fire Hazard Will IncreaseFire Hazard Will Increase

East Bay FiresEast Bay Fires

HistoryHistory• Fire is a naturalFire is a naturalpart of the Eastpart of the EastBay environmentBay environment• Major fires haveMajor fires haveoccurred everyoccurred every10 to 15 years10 to 15 yearsin the East Bayin the East Bayhillshills

• 1923: 130 acres , 584 homes1923: 130 acres , 584 homes• 1931: 1,800 acres, 5 homes1931: 1,800 acres, 5 homes• 1933: 1,000 acres, 5 homes1933: 1,000 acres, 5 homes• 1937: 700 acres1937: 700 acres• 1946: 1,000 acres1946: 1,000 acres• 1960: 1,200 acres, 2 homes1960: 1,200 acres, 2 homes• 1970: 204 acres , 37 homes1970: 204 acres , 37 homes• 1980: 2 acres, 5 homes1980: 2 acres, 5 homes• 1990: 200 acres1990: 200 acres• 1991: 1,700 acres, 3,4001991: 1,700 acres, 3,400

homes, 25 diedhomes, 25 died• 1995: 3 homes1995: 3 homes• 2002: 5 acres2002: 5 acres

The 1923 Berkeley Fire The 1923 Berkeley Fire Destroyed 584 Homes in Destroyed 584 Homes in

2 HOURS2 HOURS

NASA

OaklandOaklandHillsHillsFireFire

from from spacespace

Losses 1991 Oakland Hills FireLosses 1991 Oakland Hills Fire

• 25 Dead25 Dead• 150 Injured150 Injured• 3,471 Homes Lost3,471 Homes Lost• 1,520 Acres Burned1,520 Acres Burned• Largest Fire Loss in the history of the Largest Fire Loss in the history of the

nation up to that time - $2.2 billionnation up to that time - $2.2 billion• Economic Loss: 15-20% businessEconomic Loss: 15-20% business

failure in nearby retail, citywidefailure in nearby retail, citywideunknownunknown

Tilden ParkTilden Park

19101910

20032003

Source: Jean QuanSource: Jean Quan

Living in the HillsLiving in the HillsEach arrow = houseEach arrow = house

Source: Jean QuanSource: Jean Quan

San San AndreasAndreas

FaultFault System System

>60% chance>60% chanceof a 6.7 quake of a 6.7 quake

in next 30 in next 30 years in Bay years in Bay

AreaArea

Ten Greatest QuakesTen Greatest Quakes

A Few California QuakesA Few California Quakes

• San FranciscoSan Francisco 19061906 8.258.25• Calaveras faultCalaveras fault 19111911 6.56.5• Imperial ValleyImperial Valley 19401940 7.17.1• Kern CountyKern County 19521952 7.77.7• San FernandoSan Fernando 19711971 6.56.5• CoalingaCoalinga 19831983 6.56.5• Loma PrietaLoma Prieta 19891989 7.17.1• NorthridgeNorthridge 19941994 6.76.7• ParkfieldParkfield 20042004 7.07.0

Oak KnollOak KnollHospitalHospital

19711971

Bay Area FaultsBay Area Faults

Probability ofProbability ofEarthquakesEarthquakes

> 6.7> 6.72003-20322003-2032

= 62%= 62%

USGShttp://quake.usgs.gov/

Rock Type Makes a DifferenceRock Type Makes a Difference

Liquification: East BayLiquification: East Bay

San AndraSan AndraSanSan

AndreasAndreasFaultFault

7.27.2

HaywardHaywardFaultFault

6.96.9

University of California, University of California, Berkeley Berkeley

UCB

Memorial StadiumMemorial Stadium

You Need an You Need an EarthquakeEarthquake

Bucket!!Bucket!!

The Real ProblemThe Real Problem

A World Full of HumansA World Full of Humans

1960 = 3,000,000,000 1960 = 3,000,000,000 2007 = 6,650,189,9462007 = 6,650,189,9462040 = 8,900,000,0002040 = 8,900,000,000

This in your lifetime!This in your lifetime!

In Your Kids’ LifetimeIn Your Kids’ Lifetime

• World population will increase 3 billionWorld population will increase 3 billion• US population will increase 50 millionUS population will increase 50 million• Petroleum will be used upPetroleum will be used up• Sea level will rise 1-8+mSea level will rise 1-8+m• Climate will warm several degreesClimate will warm several degrees• Oceans will acidifyOceans will acidify• Fishing will decreaseFishing will decrease• Biodiversity & abundance will decrease Biodiversity & abundance will decrease

enormouslyenormously

ONLY YOU CAN HELPONLY YOU CAN HELP YOUR CHILDREN, YOUR CHILDREN, GRANDCHILDREN & YOURSELF GRANDCHILDREN & YOURSELF

NASANASA

WhatWhatcancan

you do you do for your for your

Bay Bay Area?Area?

1. ?1. ?2. ?2. ?3. ?3. ?4. ?4. ?5. ?5. ?

Thanks!!Thanks!!

Jere H. LippsJere H. Lipps

jlipps@berkeley.edujlipps@berkeley.edu