cities of the future - jan sturesson
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
Cities of... - Opportunity... - Tomorrow ... - the Future...
Global Challange 2012 05 30
Jan Sturesson Global Leader Government and Public Services Partner
www.pwc.com
PwC 2
Introduction
PwC - Thought Leadership - Cities
II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública
COGNITIVE LANDSCAPE
II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública Experimentation 1 7 No-risk
Initiative 1 7 Lethargy
Connectivity 1 7 Disruption
Learning 1 7 Regression
Use of IC 1 7 Abuse of IC
Self-Reflection 1 7 Vanity
Cohesion 1 7 Disintegration
Leadership 1 7 Followership
Vision 1 7 Blindness
Openness 1 7 Autism
Intelligence
High ignorance/ Low Ignorance/
Low intelligence High Intelligence
Ignorance
The Ignorance Meter
Source. K.North
Är vi en intelligent eller ignorant stad?
Vision
”Creating the Society of the Future for the Citizens of Tomorrow - Today – together
with a more Trusted, Sustainable and Collaborating Government!
6
?
It is all about cities….or….
“There is no question that cities are the engines of economic growth and centres of dynamic social and cultural activities and development, although there
exist some contrary messages like the future lies in a living country side….”
John Naisbitt
Author and Futurist, USA
Slide 9
Seminarium Region Skåne 2009 01 22 Jan Sturesson
Visionsförverkligande -
Landsbygd
PwC 10
Maps…
Global Distribution of Population
Source: The Rise of the Mega-Region Richard
Florida, Tim Gulden & Charlotta Mellander
Global distribution of Economic Activity (LRP)
Source: The Rise of the Mega-Region Richard
Florida, Tim Gulden & Charlotta Mellander
Global distribution of patent activity
Source: The Rise of the Mega-Region Richard
Florida, Tim Gulden & Charlotta Mellander
Global distribution of star scientists (highly cited science
authors)
Source: The Rise of the Mega-Region Richard
Florida, Tim Gulden & Charlotta Mellander
PwC 15
Perspective
Future of Future Cities !
“The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities”
From mega to meta - bigger and bigger…
The urban meets the rural –thought high speed transport and internet
Green, solar, wind etc. integrated
Without - or much less – cars...
Strategic business insourcing and citizen crowd sourcing
Social intelligence 2.0 – Local leverage on global mega trends *
3
Future of Future Cities !!
The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities
Stakeholder Collaboration - cross sectors – The new core business for city management
Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism” …
Opened citizen participation and digital mass collaboration - through legitimate leadership
Reinventing the power of innovation and prototyping - big is beautiful, but in small scale…
3
The agenda of today and tomorrow…
Competitiveness Attractiveness
Sustainable
Development
Balanced
Growth
Citizen
Engagement
Effective
Service
Brand defining
A City Government Staircase to the Future…
Brand development
Innovation
Attractiveness
Experiences
Social care
Streets, water
Communication
Citizen Consultation
The vision of future
well fare and growth
”Old Core Business” – taken for granted…
Red Ocean – traditional business logic.
”New Core Business” – Brand,
Magnetism, Excitement, Attractiveness
for growth and well fare.
Blue Ocean – New Business Logic
Yesterday
Tomorrow
External control
Internal control
Collaboration
Risk Focus
Opportunity focus
PwC 20
Trends
Mega trends - effecting the strategic agenda !
• Uncertainty – the new normal – financial crisis, epidemics, catastrophes' and terrorism
• Globalization and localization Glocalisation*
• Competition & Collaboration Co-opetition*
• Territoryzation and flow
• Merging and fusion - territories and spheres melting together
• Urbanization (Urban corridors)
• Individualization
• Governmentization and Privatization
• Hi-tech (www, E-government)
• Hi-touch (Experience society)
Mega trends - effecting the strategic agenda !!
• Hi-tech (www, E-government)
• Hi-touch (Experience society)
• Peak oil and renewable energy
• Water – the new oil
• Mobility & Connectivity
• Transparency and openness
• Acceleration and time effectiveness – distance in minutes
• Integration – living, working, shopping and leisure
• Migration / segregation / integration (people, money, knowledge and values)
• Demographic changes and ageing
Some Global Mega, Giga or Tera Trends…
23
Globalization Glocalization
Financial / Economic crisis debt, deficit, economies under pressure
Urbanization Corridors, Urbanomics, territoryzation, rurbanization, “smartcitieszation”
Competition Co-opetition
Amalgamation (spheres of society, industries, etc.)
New Technologies ICT, E mobility, smart grids etc.
Knowledge & experience society
Individualization / personalization
Climate change / sustainability sustsinagility
Demographic changes aging - the silver potentials…
Collaborating
Society
Competing
Society
Local
Approach
Global
Approach
The Local club
The Local fight Everybody goes global
by themselves
Global
Innovation
Team • Uncertainty
•Glocal-ization
• Co-opetition
•Ra-plexity
The Future is different… The new normal 2.0
Some Global Mega, Giga or Tera Trends…
25
Globalization Glocalization
Financial / Economic crisis debt, deficit, economies under pressure
Urbanization Corridors, Urbanomics, territoryzation, rurbanization, “smartcitieszation”
Competition Co-opetition
Amalgamation (spheres of society, industries, etc.)
New Technologies ICT, E mobility, smart grids etc.
Knowledge & experience society
Individualization / personalization
Climate change / sustainability sustsinagility
Demographic changes aging - the silver potentials…
Economic Perspective E7 could overtake G7 by 2020
By 2030, the global GDP rankings (at PPPs) could read as follows:
1. China 2. US 3. India 4. Japan 5. Brazil 6. Russia 7. Germany 8. Mexico 9. France 10. UK
Source: World Bank for 2000-8, PwC projections of actual GDP in 2009-10 and trend GDP thereafter
Convergence Catch-Up Overtaking
GD
P a
t P
PP
s (
co
nsta
nt 2
00
8 I$
)
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
G7 GDP
E7 GDP
E7 includes China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey (the seven largest emerging economies).
28
Some Global Mega, Giga or Tera Trends…
29
Globalization Glocalization
Financial / Economic crisis debt, deficit, economies under pressure
Urbanization Corridors, Urbanomics, territoryzation, rurbanization, “smartcitieszation”
Competition Co-opetition
Amalgamation (spheres of society, industries, etc.)
New Technologies ICT, E mobility, smart grids etc.
Knowledge & experience society
Individualization / personalization
Climate change / sustainability sustsinagility
Demographic changes aging - the silver potentials…
Leverage on current trends and integrate strategy and operations in our value prop
Territory
Organization
Internal
External
Transforming a territory
(a city or a nation) for growth
and development
cross sectors
Developing wealth
and well fare -
effective processes
and efficient service
Transform through Strategic
Implementation
Prototyping
Smart Communities
ICT
Culture &
Leisure
Social Infrastructure
Environmental
Political Participation
Intellectual & Innovation
• Urban planning • Conventional &
Renewable Energy • Smart grids • Transportation • Water • Buildings/Housing • Lighting
• eGovernment • Data centers • Broadband • Wireless • E Payments • Digital economy
• Health • Safety & Security • Social integration &
cohesion
• Education • Small & Medium
Enterprises • Human Development
• Tourism • Leisure venues
management • Cultural venues
management
• Solid Waste management
• Water Waste management
• Air quality management
• Green areas
• Citizen consultation & participation
• Government outreach
31
Understanding the Smart Communities concept in a comprehensive and holistic manner
PwC
Slide 32
Det bästa från två världar…
Action, puls, täthet, ljud och ljus…
Relax, utrymme, stjärnljus, mörker och tystnad…
Slide 33
Seminarium Region Skåne 2009 01 22 Jan Sturesson
Samhällsentreprenör i Teckomatorp Samhällsentreprenörer i Teckomatorp
Future of Future Cities !!
The future is not as it used to be – we need energizing visions, personal leadership and passion to be able to imagine possible futures to accomplish the mission of reinventing future cities
Stakeholder Collaboration - cross sectors – The new core business for city management
Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism” …
Opened citizen participation and digital mass collaboration - through legitimate leadership
Reinventing the power of innovation and prototyping - big is beautiful, but in small scale…
3
Creating a new playground for growth - stakeholder collaboration
Holistic approach to sustainability – The “New Capitalism”
Opportunity space…
The New Value Matrix for Societal Innovation – Opportunity Space
A City of
the Future
Sustainable Local Economy
Environmental
capital Social
capital
Participation and
political capital
Infrastructure
capital
ICT
capital
Culture and leisure
capital
Intellectual
capital
Prioritisation
Vision
Performance
& Risk
Partnerships Programme/
Project
Leadership Social
Intelligence City finance City Brand
Capital policy and
management
Performance &
Results KPIs
Delivery and Achievement
Enablers
Strategic
Ambition
Management
Capacity
Structure of PwC Cities Assessment Tool
PwC 39
Methodology - Facing the urban challenge
Social Capital
Human - or intellectual capital
Infrastructure capital
Environmental and natural resources
capital
Political and citizen participation capital Culture and
experience capital
Trade and industry capital &
immigration
Financial capital
Tourist and visitors capital
Welfare capital
How do we create a sense of community?
How do we utilise all of the human potential?
Do we have the infrastructure in place
to support growth?
How do we manage our
resources in a sustainable
manner? How do we promote citizen participation? How do we
create a liveable city?
Which policies should we adopt
to drive economic growth?
Are we financially
sustainable?
Do we have an attractive brand
for global visitors?
How do we guarantuee a sustainable level of
welfare?
PwC 40
A changing picture of urban success
Central thesis:
Cities of Opportunity - What makes the difference?
The more well-balanced a city is for both businesses and residents,
the better it will fare
City of the Future (CoF) measurement tool
Performance -
Policy
+
+
-
“Dreaming” city
Intelligent City: City of the future (CoF)
“Gambling” city “Ignorant” city
The results of the tool, coupled with further analysis, may give the city an idea of where it stands in relation to being or becoming a CoF and
how to chart its path towards becoming a CoF.
?
?
41 PwC
Assessing Policy vs. Performance
0
25
50
75
100 Vision
Leadership
Brand
Social Intelligence
Finance Capital
Intellectual Capital Social
Capital
Participation & Political
Capital
Culture & Leisure Capital
Environmental Capital
Infrastructure Capital
ICT Capital
Own Value
Benchmark
Best In Class
The above spider graph allows a city to assess where its capital strengths and weaknesses are, in comparison to best practice and
international benchmarks.
Illustrative
Capital model measurement tool for cities
43 PwC
PwC
Utrecht – City vs stakeholder perspective
City perspective
Stakeholder perspective
44
Solna – Assessment of its capitals
0
20
40
60
80
100
Intellectual Capital
Social Capital
Environmental Capital
Culture and Leisure Capital
Participation and Political Capital
Information & Communications
Technology Capital
Infrastructure Capital
45 PwC
Arendal – City positioning & development potential
46 PwC
PwC
Result – Utrecht Development Board (UDB) Partnering to achieve success
As an independent advisory board, the UDB supports the city of Utrecht in realizing its potential. To achieve this, cooperation between local leaders, citizens and businesses is crucial for its success.
The UDB has succeeded over the last year in working together with the municipality (setting up strategy) and executing the strategy by connecting various stakeholders of the city of Utrecht. In particular, UDB has created partnerships between various stakeholders within, and also outside, the city of Utrecht, including:
• ‘City labs’ – working together (education, business communities, government organizations) on different challenges e.g. local labor market, broadband, civil society and new ways of working.
• An annual encouragement award for the local economy, initiated by the UDB and the municipality
• A permanent lobby to encourage the participation of industries within the city’s Strategic Agenda
• Creating a new connection between the Trade area and the municipality
Critical success factors for partnering__
47
PwC 48
Cities of
opportunity
Cities of Opportunity is a highly visible thought leadership initiative reflecting PwC’s views on cities
49
Central thesis: “The more well-balanced a city is for both businesses and
residents, the better it will fare”
• Reflects PwC’s holistic approach to city management
• The report in its fourth edition is produced by PwC with support from the global network and the ISU and in cooperation with the Partnership for New York City.
• Takes both a quantitative and qualitative look at the emerging picture of city life in 21 capitals of business, finance and culture worldwide.
• To a great extent, the successes and shortcomings that surface in the study substantiate the central thesis of the research.
• Cities of Opportunity may prove most useful for government officials, policymakers and business persons as a good orientation point on the move toward a city-centered world.
• The study takes notice of the actions and policies that are working best for the common good, and its insights will prove valuable in that context.
PwC 50 Partnership for New York City
How the cities rank overall
Los Angeles Madrid
Berlin
Tokyo Houston 15
16
12
14
13
24 San Francisco 25
Toronto
26 New York
23
Stockholm
22 Sydney
18
17
19
21
20
Chicago Paris
Singapore
Hong Kong
London
11
8
10
9
Mexico City Abu Dhabi
Shanghai
Beijing Seoul
7
5
4
1
2 3
6
Moscow
Istanbul
Mumbai
Johannesburg São Paulo
Santiago
Cities of Opportunity – Success Factors for Cities
51 PwC
PwC
Beta cities fared very well, compared to the dominant Alpha cities
Intellectual capital and innovation Stockholm Toronto New York/
San Francisco
Technology readiness New York Seoul Stockholm
Transportation and infrastructure Paris Chicago New York
Demographics and livability Stockholm Sydney Toronto
Economic Clout London Paris New York
Cost Houston Los Angeles Chicago
Lifestyle Assets New York Paris London
Health, safety and security Stockholm Toronto Chicago
Ease of doing business Hong Kong Singapore New York
Sustainability Berlin Sydney Stockholm
52
1
2
3
Top 3 cities in each indicator
Cities of Opportunity - What makes the difference?
PwC
Indicator Rankings
53 Partnership for New York City
Indicator Best performing cities
Intellectual capital and innovation Stockholm Toronto New York
Technology readiness New York Seoul Stockholm
Transportation and infrastructure Paris Chicago New York
Demographics and livability Stockholm Sydney Toronto
Economic Clout London Paris New York
Cost Houston Los Angeles Chicago
Lifestyle Assets New York Paris London
Health, safety and security Stockholm Toronto Chicago
Ease of doing business Hong Kong Singapore New York
Sustainability Berlin Sydney Stockholm
PwC
How it’s done … For example, 2 of 10 indicators + variables
54 Partnership for New York City
• Math/science skills attainment • Class size • Percent of population with higher education • Literacy + enrollment • Libraries with public access • Research at top universities • Percent GDP spent on R+D • Intellectual property protection • Entrepreneurial environment
Social…
Intellectual Capital + innovation
• Mass transit coverage • Miles of mass transit track • Traffic congestion • Taxis • Cost of public transport • Aircraft movements • In/outgoing passenger flows • Airport to central business district ease • Skyscraper construction
Economic …
Transportation + infrastructure
PwC
Indicator and variable sampling
55 Partnership for New York City
• Math/science skills attainment • Percent of population with higher ed • Intellectual property protection
Intellectual Capital and innovation
• Mass transit coverage • Miles of mass transit track • Traffic congestion
Transportation and infrastructure
• Political environment • Crime • Hospitals
Health, safety and security
• Flexibility of visa travel • Foreign embassies or consulates • Workforce management risk
Ease of doing business
PwC 56
Innovation
How many seeds are there in a apple?
Traditionally the right question
Business as usual…
…How many apples are there
in a seed..…
New approach with new
insights and increased
opportunity space
Disruptive innovation and
“rapid protoptyping”…
Shaping the Future
59
A Constant Unique Tall Building…
II Simpósio Internacional PwC - Inovação em Gestão Pública
The Worlds Tallest
Building…
The Worlds Lowest Building…
FINALLY...
We need a:
Higher density of knowledge, innovation and solid relationships - inclusiveness
Lower friction in communication, collaboration and between people, sectors and cultures
Higher frequency and speed in citizen and stakeholder dialog in order to create the new!
3
PwC 64
The end