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Dalian Laodong Park
Presentation by Wendell Cox to the Marco Polo Society Shanghai – 17 November 2014
Cities in China: A World Context
Major Cities Toured in China 1999-2014
Shanghai Quanzhou Fuzhou Shijiazhuang ShantouBeijing Nanjing Jinan Urumqi Chaoyang-Chaonan
Guangzhou-Foshan Shenyang Ningbo Wenzhou TangshanShenzhen Xi'an Taiyuan Zhangjiaggang-Jiangyin Shaoxing
Tianjin Qingdao Changsha Zhongshan Huai'anChengdu Suzhou Hefei Guiyang Hohhot
Dongguan Zhengzhou Kunming Lanzhou BaotouWuhan Harbin Wuxi Nanchang Handan
Hangzhou Xiamen Changzhou Nanning HaikouChongqing Dalian Changchun Linyi Luoyang
Urban Area: Continuous Development NOT BASED ON JURISDICTIONAL BOUNDARIES
EXAMPLE: HARBIN Municipality: 10.6M
Urban qu: 5.9M Urban area: 4.3M
$0 $5,000
$10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000
1500 1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
GDP Per Capita (Highest Nation) 1500 TO 2000 (2000$)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 65
0BC
400B
C 20
0BC
100A
D 50
0 90
0 10
00
1100
12
00
1300
14
00
1500
16
00
1700
18
00
1850
19
00
1950
20
00
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT
Huge Swings: 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example
BELOW Hangzhou , China (Largest Pre-19th
Century Urban Area: 1300)?
Hangzhou
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
China: % Urban Residents 1950-2050
PER UNITED NATIONS 2015-2030 155M Increase 2030-2050: 20M Increase
Mobility & Economic Growth EMPLOYMENT ACCESS IN THE LABOR MARKET
Mobility improves economy & job creation
Prud’homme & Lee U. Of Paris & others
Tianjin
Economic growth enhanced by
quick travel through metropolitan area
(labor market)
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000
Mozambique
Sudan
China
Bhutan
India
Pakistan
Indonesia
Philippines
GDP (PPP) per Capita: 2013$
2013
1980
GDP Growth: China & Examples NATIONS WITH LOW INCOMES IN 1980
CHINA 1980 Ranked 133 of 135 Growth 1980-2013
3x 2nd & 3rd Burundi
South Korea
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
China Rest of the Developing World
Chan
ge: P
over
ty P
opul
atio
n: M
illio
ns
Calculated from World Bank data
Poverty Reduction: China & the World REDUCTION IN EXTREME POVERTY POPULATION:1981-2008
CHONGQING MUNICIPALITY 30 Million, 82,000 KM2
(Size of Austria) CHONGQING URBAN AREA
7 Million, 360 KM2
Chongqing NOT THE LARGEST CITY IN THE WORLD
0 10 20 30 40
Lagos Shenzhen
Istanbul Tehran
Buenos Aires Dhaka
Kolkata Bangkok
Cairo Los Angeles
Moscow Osaka-Kobe-Kyoto
Mumbai Guangzhou-Foshan
Beijing Sao Paulo
Mexico City New York
Karachi Shanghai
Manila Seoul Delhi
Jakarta Tokyo
Population (x1,000,000)
25 Largest Urban Areas in the World 2014
Source: Demographia World
Urban Areas
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Atlanta Portland
New York Toronto
Los Angeles Paris
Tokyo Beijing
Guangzhou-Foshan Shanghai
Shenzhen Seoul
Manila Kinshasa
Hong Kong Mumbai
Dhaka
Population per Square Kilometer
Urban Area Density Examples POPULATION PER URBAN SQUARE KILOMETER: 2014
HK Kowloon Walled City Up to 2,000,000 Slums in Dhaka Up to 1,000,000
Cities Grow & Become Less Dense EXAMPLE OF ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA
URBAN DENSITY 1973: 30,000 2010: 8,000
(per KM2)
97% 94% 93%
114%
92%
Suburban World NEARLY ALL URBAN GROWTH IN SUBURBS: 35+YEARS
Aust
ralia
Cana
da
Unite
d St
ates
Wes
tern
Eur
ope
Japa
n
Moscow Suburbs
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
Inner Core Outer Core Balance
2000 2010
Shanghai Population: 2000-2010 BY SECTOR
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Huangpu Qu
Jing'an Qu
Outer Core
Beyond
Shanghai Density by Area: 2010 POPULATION PER SQUARE KILOMETER
0 5 10 15
United States
Ireland
Japan
Canada
United Kingdom
Singapore
Australia
New Zealand
China: 40 Other Cities
China: Hong Kong
The Economist (2014) Demographia (2013)
Housing Affordability: 2013/2014 PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE)
0 5 10 15 20
Atlanta Chicago
Dublin Tokyo
Hohhot Changsha
Chongqing London
Chengdu Auckland
Nanjing Melbourne
Sydney San Francisco
Vancouver Shanghai
Hong Kong Beijing
Shenzhen
The Economist: 2014 Demographia: 2013
Housing Affordability: 2013/14 Examples PRICE-INCOME MULTIPLE (HIGHER: LESS AFFORDABLE)
Price to Income Ratios Major Metropolitan Areas
Sources: The Economist Demographia
Unusual: Dense Central Business Districts MOST CITIES HAVE DISPERSED COMMERCIAL CORES
Lujiazui Chongqing
New York Metropolitan Area Employment BY SECTOR OF METROPOLITAN AREA: 2000
Outer Ring 58%
Inner Ring Balance
27%
Central Business District (Puxi &
Lujiazui) 15%
Shanghai Job Locations: 2004 BASED ON TRAVEL SURVEY
SHANGHAI CBD Similar in total employment
To London, Osaka, Seoul
Smaller than Tokyo, New York
Beijing DISPERSED & POLYCENTRIC
Other Examples: Qingdao, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Taiyuan
Chengdu, Kunming, Changsha
Pearl River Delta ADJACENT URBAN AREAS
Guangzhou
Population: 53.9 Million Urban Area KM2: 3,245 Tokyo: 37.8 Million Urban Area KM2 : 3,300
Pearl River Delta Urban Areas
Guangzhou-Foshan Dongguan
Shenzhen
Hong Kong
Zhongshan Jiangmen
Zhuhai
Macau
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
China United States EU-15
Rout
e Ki
lom
eter
s Motorway/Interstate Standard Expressways
LENGTH: CHINA, EUROPE & UNITED STATES (2014)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Railway Car & Bus Airline
Billi
ons o
f Pas
seng
er K
ilom
eter
s
United States China European Union Japan
4 Largest Economies: Passenger Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Railway Highway (Truck) Waterway Pipeline
Billi
ons o
f Ton
ne K
ilom
eter
s
United States China European Union Japan
4 Largest Economies: Freight Transport DOMESTIC: LATEST YEAR
China: Metro World Leader STRONG RATE OF BUILDING CONTINUES
Beijing Subway
RIDERSHIP 1-Beijing 3-Shanghai 6-Guangzhou 9-Hong Kong
ROUTE LENGTH 1-Shanghai 2-Beijing 8-Guangzhou
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Sydney Cape Town
Ningbo Marseille
Paris Los Angeles
Rome Changsha
Changchun Shenzhen Shanghai
Fuzhou Nanjing
Shijiazhuang Warsaw Brussels
Beijing Chongqing Sao Paulo Hangzhou
Mexico City Tianjin
Rio de Janeiro Istanbul Moscow
Time Added to Travel in Peak Hours
China Other
Traffic Congestion: 25 Worst Cities TOM TOM CONGESTION INDEX
Includes China, Americas, Europe, South Africa, Australia & New Zealand (Not all urban
areas) Source: Tom Tom