cis markets status and potential/ custom union markets in ...10% 45 30. 15. 0. 2011 2012. 2013....
TRANSCRIPT
CIS markets status and potential/ Custom union markets in focus
Nickolai Demidov
IMS Health
© 2014, IMS HEALTH
There is no “red zone” for the CIS markets growth still.
© 2014, IMS HEALTH2
Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sept 2012 ; CIS + Georgia DB, 2012
Forecasted Sales and Growth Regional Performance*
Sales mln2013
Share 2013
CAGR 2013
RUSSIA 17 586,9 68,8% 5,2%
UKRAINE 3 130,0 12,2% 16,1%
KAZAKHSTAN 1 704,9 6,7% 18,0%
UZBEKISTAN 963,3 3,8% 17,7%
BELARUS 952,7 3,7% 21,6%
AZERBAIJAN 568,7 2,2% 20,1%
GEORGIA 219,9 0,9% 15,5%
MOLDOVA 179,7 0,7% 15,9%
KYRGYZSTAN 167,6 0,7% 0,0%
ARMENIA 104,5 0,4% 9,2%
CIS + Georgia 25 578,1 100,0% 3,1%
GrowthSales bn
0%
5%
10%60
45
30
15
0201620152014201320122011
Growth
Balkans
CEE
Russia + CIS
Baltics
Key factors in the CIS and Georgia market development in 2013
Share, % USD Growth, % USD
Import 79,2 +13
Local 20,8 +19
Rx 65,9 +14
ОТС 34,1 +15
Key elements
Territory: 4 203 th. sq. km population: 127,55 mln.
Ph
arm
am
ark
et
20
13
7,99 bln. USD in wholesalers prices
3,13 bln. packages
2,55 USD per package
62,65 USD per capita
© 2014, IMS HEALTH3
Regulatory agenda in CIS
© 2013 IMS Health Incorporated o its affiliates. All rights reserved4
CIS market outlook in light of Global trends- N.Demidov
reimbursement
pricing regulations
VAT for drugs
registration
Local manufacturing protection
Customs union (?)
Regulatory agenda in CIS: what else?
© 2013 IMS Health Incorporated o its affiliates. All rights reserved5
CIS market outlook in light of Global trends- N.Demidov
Parallel trade
GMP
Localization of production
National programs enhance
The CIS and Georgia markets – 2013 vs. 2012, in value, in wholesalers prices, USD
3 316
1 549
945
747
447
180
162
143
91
3 839
1 705
963
953
569
220
180
168
104
0 4 000
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
BELARUS
AZERBAIJAN
GEORGIA
MOLDOVA
KYRGYZSTAN
ARMENIA
mln USD
2013
2012
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+15,4%
+17,6%
+10,8%
+22,5%
+27,3%
+27,6%
+2,0%
+10,1%
+15,8%
retail only
• High performers:BEL (ret+hosp), AZ and GE grew above 20%
• Intermediate: ARM, KRG, UKR - 14-17,6%
• Below: UZB, KZ, MLD – 2-10,6%
Although hospital market in most countries is less then 20%, it has heavily contributed to overall growth (UKR, BEL, KGZ)
The CIS and Georgia markets – 2013 vs. 2012, in value, Units
1 436
565
498
345
107
105
88
58
30
1 434
574
476
370
132
107
105
65
33
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000
UKRAINE
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
BELARUS
AZERBAIJAN
KYRGYZSTAN
GEORGIA
MOLDOVA
ARMENIA
mln Units
2013
2012
© 2014, IMS HEALTH7
+9,3%
+11,4%
+18,9%
+2,6%
+22,5%
+7,3%
-4,3%
+1,6%
-0,2%
retail only
• Vague doubts:AZ, GE, ARM – parallel import effect?
• Unusual phenomena:UZ decreases consumption volume
• Getting mature:UKR on plato level
Rapid increase of consumption in most of the countries shows the still existing unsatisfied demand, or tricks of specific operations
Pharma market growth in 2013
693 +6%7,5%
Total Market 2013
441
127
8739
Audited 2013
654
441
127
87
Audited 2012
608
400
128
80
RetailHospital
Federal Reimb.Regional Reimb.*
8%
-1%
10%
SA
LE
S B
Y V
ALU
E,
RU
B B
LN
Source: IMS Health. TRD prices*preliminary estimation for 2013
Growth rate fell out of double digit in 2013 with hospital sector stagnation
• Retail sector continued to drive the market
• State purchases are influenced by growing price competition and NOB/generics substitution
• EDL is still “hot topic”
• Further market shrinking is possible
Weak macro forecast HC spending is subject of
budget revision Most important reforms
might be postponed Evidences of activating of
the protective actions in the sales channel
Comments
© 2014, IMS HEALTH8Kickoff 2014
Key market segmentsKazakhstan represents almost a $2 billion market opportunity today, growing at CAGR of 15% over the past 5 years
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2010 2011 2012 2013
SALE
S B
Y V
ALU
E, $M
LN
Budget Retail
$ 1 804 Mln.
CAGR 2008-13 15%
Whole market; 12,7%; 20,3%
Retail; 11,7%; 16,1%
Budget; 14,2%; 28,5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
SH
ORT-T
ERM
GRO
WTH
2012-2
013 (
% K
ZT)
MEDIUM-TERM GROWTH CAGR 2008-13 (% KZT)
*CAGR 2008-2013Size of bubble = 2013 sales $MLN
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The CIS and Georgia market split: retail out of the pocket and hospital
84
57
74
88
85
86
89
77
85
16
43
26
12
15
14
11
23
15
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
UKRAINE*
KAZAKHSTAN
BELARUS
AZERBAIJAN*
UZBEKISTAN*
GEORGIA*
ARMENIA
MOLDOVA*
KYRGYZSTAN*
Retail Hospital/Reimbursement
%, USD
© 2014, IMS HEALTH10
* Expert evaluation
• Kazakhstan with ongoing reforms went far ahead
• Despite modest budget capacity Belarus shows rather stable component belonging to social part
• Classic level for hospital is still 11-16% of the national market for majority of the countries
Citizens are still the key “sponsors” of pharma consumption –no changes
4,3
3,1 3,0 2,8 2,6 2,52,1 2,0
1,6USD
fo
r a
concr
ete
unit
Parallel trade, lack of regulation
Generics, protect local
Innovations expansion
The CIS markets demonstrate a high level of differences in price levels of drug consumption
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The drug prices in CIS and Georgia, 2013
Price difference examples
© 2014, IMS HEALTH12
AMOKSIKLAV
HEPARIN
MABTHERA
PriceRF, USD
$9,3
$3,9
$1538
Belarus Moldova
$1338$1347
Kyrgyzstan
$1534
Kazakhstan
$1441
Belarus Kazakhstan
$2,1$3,2
Azerbaijan
$4,1
Uzbekistan
$5,5
Kazakhstan Belarus
$7,8$7,0
Uzbekistan
$7,8
Armenia
$7,0
Avg. Pricediff.
countries, USD
NO-SPA $3,7
Belarus Moldova
$3,2$2,6
Kyrgyzstan
$3,3
Kazakhstan
$2,9
64,2% 65,9%
35,8% 34,1%
2011 2013
100%
RxOTC
100%
In Value In Units
Sales of RX drugs accounted for more than 60% in retail market in CIS
© 2014, IMS HEALTH13
44,4% 45,9%
55,6% 54,1%
2011 2013
With the enhancement of reimbursement projects in some countries the share of Rx is increasing rapidly
4,4
3,7
3,4
3,2
2,5
2,5
2,4
2,3
2,1
2,1
0 2 4 6
SANOFI
BERLIN-CH/MENARINI
NOVARTIS
GSK
BAYER HEALTHCARE
GEDEON RICHTER
TEVA
FARMAK
KRKA
SERVIER
MS, %
TOP-10 corporations in the CIS, MS%+sales growth%. : 2013/2012 vs. CAGR
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Growth of sales2013/2012, %
+19,5%
+20,5%
+18,3%
+4,6%
+15,7%
+15,3%
+15,8%
+5,6%
+10,1%
+17,5%
CAGR,2013/2011, %
+20,7%
+16,6%
+17,7%
+9,9%
+15,7%
+21,0%
+20,6%
+13,2%
+23,3%
+17,7%
Trend2013
0,47
0,43
0,57
0,48
1,11
1,14
0,47
0,68
0,38
0,47
0 0 0 1 1 1 1
KUSUM HEALTHCARE (INDIA)
ASTRAZENECA
ZHURABEK
OCTAPHARMA AG
NOBEL (TURKEY)
ASTELLAS PHARMA INC
MERCK & CO (USA)
KIEV VITAMIN FACTORY
LEKPHARM JLLC
POLPHARMA
Доля рынка, %
Sales growth, 2012/2011,
%
0,47
1,51
1,15
0,95
1,37
0,42
0,88
0,37
2,60
0,36
0 2 4
ROTAPHARM
ROCHE
MERCK SHARP & DOHME
ASTELLAS PHARMA INC
WORLD MEDICINE
POLPHARMA
NOBEL (TURKEY)
OCTAPHARMA AG
GEDEON RICHTER
G.M.P. LTD
Доля рынка, %
+38%
+38%
+39%
+40%
+41%
+43%
+48%
65%
+89%
+121%
+28%
+31%
+33%
+36%
+38%
+44%
+48%
+48%
+49%
+53%
Sales growth, 2013/2012,
%2012 2013
Top 10 corporations in the CIS in 2013, the growth rate has changed significantly comparing to 2012
© 2014, IMS HEALTH15
Most countries in Emerging Europe will show a deceleration in sales growth ...
16
Doubts on positive forecasts right now? Don’t forget about the cycle specifics of economy developement
Relative Country Growth Performance
8%6%4%2%-2%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%20%18%16%14%12%10%
Ukraine
Romania
Czech
Hungary
Kazakhstan
CAGR 2008-2012
CAG
R 2
013 -
2017
Montenegro
Armenia
TajikistanSlovakia
Estonia
Moldova
Latvia
Azerbaijan
Lithuania
Uzbekistan
Belarus
Bosnia & Herz.
Slovenia
BulgariaSerbia
Croatia
Macedonia
Turkey
Russia
Poland
Albania
CEE
Baltics
Adriatics
CIS
Balkans
Source: IMS Health Market Prognosis, Sept 2013
© 2014, IMS HEALTH
?
Crucial factors:Currency risksProtective mechanisms
Reimbursement factors (positive?):MoldovaKazakhstan, Azerbaijan
Key challenges:Pricing regulationsLocal protectionSales channel sustainabilityParallel trade Margin decrease
Key opportunities:space for expansions for gen/innov.consumer health: still far below the standards of consumption
Action points 2014
Unsatisfied demandHigh morbidityReplacement Sales channel developmentPromotionInvestments (gvts/business)
12
CIS markets: key objectives for 2014
© 2014, IMS HEALTH
-+
++
Key factors/challenges
Drivers’2013
+
+
Market accessIncrease of pricing competitionCost optimisationDrug affordabilityOperational integrationConsolidationBusiness models reshaping
3
17Kickoff 2014
-----
+
in anticipation of the opening of the Olympic gameslet’s always be the first on the shooting range
Seeing your competitors far behind ensure every next shoot will hit the target
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