TOWARD 2063 – OUR STRENGTHS,OPPORTUNITIES,

WEAKNESSES AND THREATS

CSO CONSULTATION – AGENDA 2063

Dakar, Senegal, Sept. 30, 2013

Michael Sudarkasa, CEO, Africa Business Group

CIDO African Union

OUR PATH, OUR FUTURE

Lagos Plan of Action Abuja Treaty African Economic Community New Partnership for Africa’s Development Progress - S.W.O.T Analysis Toward Agenda 2063

LAGOS PLAN OF ACTION

Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa 1980 - 2000

At meeting of the Organization of African Unity, Adopted in Lagos, Nigeria in April 1980.

Post colonial era, review of first 20 years of “independence” 1960 – 1980, in the shadows of the independence of Zimbabwe

Focus on African economic self-determination-in agriculture, science and technology, toward industrialization, intra-African trade, infrastructure development, human capital development, national resource development, shared learning

In the context though – of new governments, minimal intra-African economic linkages, IMF recipes of structural adjustment, non-existent domestic private sectors, dependence on donor assistance, great influence of multi-national corporations . . .

ABUJA TREATY

Abuja Treaty for the Establishment of the African Economic Community, entered into in Abuja, Nigeria by members of the Organization of African Unity on June 3, 1991 – entered into force in 1994

Six stage economic integration path:1. By 1999 – Creation of regional blocs in regions where they do not yet exist2. By 2007 – Strengthening of inter-REC integration and inter-rec harmonisation 3. By 2017 - Establish a Free Trade Area and Customs Union in each regional bloc4. By 2019 – Establish a continent-wide customs union (incorporating a continent wide free trade area) 5. By 2023 – Establishing a continent-wide African Common Market6. By 2028 – Establishing a continent-wide economic and monetary union (and currency) and ParliamentBy 2034 latest – end all transition periods

ABUJA TREATY (Cont.)

Regional Economic Communities - the Pillars1. COMESA – founded 19942. EAC – founded 20013. ECCAS – founded 19854. ECOWAS – founded 19755. SADC – founded 19806. IGAD – founded 19867. CENSAD – founded 19888. UMA – founded 1989

NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT

Adopted at the 37th session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government in July 2001 as the New African Initiative in Lusaka, Zambia.

NEPAD is a merger of two plans for the economic regeneration of Africa: the Millennium Partnership for the African Recovery Programme (MAP), led by Former President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Former President Olusegun Obasanjo of Nigeria and President bdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria; and the OMEGA Plan for Africa developed by President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal.

The Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee (HSGIC) for the project finalized the policy framework and renamed the initiative the “New Partnership for Africa's Development” on 23 October 2001

Today as a Programme of the AU, NEPAD seeks to provide an overarching vision and policy framework for accelerating economic co-operation and integration

S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE

• STRENGTHS

All initiatives well intentioned, entered into with historical context well articulated and appreciated

Most countries of the continent participated - so near unanimous support (exceptions Morocco, South Africa pre – 1994 etc.)

Have helped propel continental economic partnership thinking - economic growth and greater political freedom

Underlying initiatives have promoted regional unity, economic cooperation, trade, investment and freer flows of peoples

Good practices are being developed – ECOWAS – passport less travel; OHADA – harmonized laws; currency unions – West Africa CFA franc, Central Africa CFA franc; Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa; COMESA and EAC – Free Trade Areas; African Free Trade Zone – SADC, COMESA and EAC (2012 – ECOWAS, ECCAS and AMU)

S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE

• WEAKNESSES

Colonial ties/ divisions/ relationships hard to break, slow progress – Francophonie, EPAs, Lusophonie

Small national economies, 26 (of 55) countries have less than 10 million people, 20 5 million or less

National governments reticent to devolve power/ fund capacity development to/ of the RECs

Multiple memberships within RECs which overlap regional boundaries slowing integration, works against regional harmonization

Uneven democratization, governance philosophies, selected long standing regional/ ethnic feuds are impediments to regional/ continental unity – North Africa, Great Lakes, Horn of Africa

Economic growth and regional integration not yet adequately inclusive African leaders not adequately committed to abiding by Constitutional term limits

S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE

• OPPORTUNITIES

Global Economic Slow Down – re-ordered Africa’s global economic relationships (opened path for new trading partners from the South), encouraged focus on greater domestic resource mobilization

Past “liabilities” becoming assets - Growing populations – creating more attractive markets; “Brain Drain – created financially better off Diaspora, led to remittance flows and skills transfer – “Brain Gain”; Poor infrastructure – communications and energy, allowing for innovation, technology leap frogging – cellular technology proliferation, renewable energy opportunities

Underutilized agricultural potential – continental food security, bread basket to the world Youthful population and low wage base – potentially next global manufacturing hub Still globally unique natural resource reserves – trade, supply, and value addition

opportunities will continue to increase

S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE

• THREATS

More complex global geo-political system – multiplying national relationships, rather than REC driven/regional partnerships (Colonial States, and newer Southern Partnerships)

Week domestic private sectors – at a time when private sector led growth is the mantra – risk economic re-colonialisation if blindly seek to attract foreign capital with supporting indigenous enterprises and encouraging entrepreneurship

Non-inclusive GDP growth creating wealth disparity- leaving youth un/ under-employed, idle . . .creates opportunity for civil unrest, third force influences to grow

Governance challenges – succession planning, curtailing of illicit flows/ corruption, political intolerance

Climate change – lack of preparedness for natural disasters Under developed infrastructure to facilitate intra-African economic integration

…TOWARD THE AFRICAN AGENDA 2063Selected thoughts on milestone priorities:1.Mobility – One Continent, One Visa – promote regional and continental mobility2.Depoliticize Regional Integration – One Region, One REC – fast track economic and political integration among contiguous states, commit to expand resource flows to RECs3.Prioritize Continental Transport Infrastructure Development – Road, Rail and Air transport improvement will accelerate regional integration4.Prioritize Energy Infrastructure Development – Electricity indispensable catalyst for economic development5.Education and Skills Development Prioritization – Commit to improving labour force, means greater focus on youth preparedness for 21st century labour market/ entrepeneurship6.Leverage Diaspora Potential (Populations and Nations) - Harness skills, capital, connections (political and economic) better and as a priority as part of domestic resource mobilization aim7.Continental Solutions First – look to identify and share continental good practice toward development – support development of internal African expertise and knowledge networks

A CSO CONSULTATION CONTRIBUTION . . .

THANK YOU!

Africa Business GroupTBC-Design Quarter

William Nicol Road, Corner Leslie Ave.

Fourways 2128, Johannesburg

PO Box 413586, Craighall 2024, South Africa

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Cell: 27 82 414 8671

E-mail: michael@abghq.com

URL: www.abghq.com