christian azar
DESCRIPTION
Climate change and the future of energy. Christian Azar. Chalmers University of Technology. THE SCIENCE. Carbon dioxide. CO 2 ppm. Radiative forcing Wm -2. 1.5. 360. 340. 1.0. 320. 0.5. 300. 280. 0. 260. 1000. 1200. 1400. 1600. 1800. 2000. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Christian AzarChalmers University of Technology
Climate change and the future of energy
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THE SCIENCE
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Carbon dioxideCO2 ppm
0
1.5
1.0
0.5
360
340
320
300
280
260
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Radiative forcing Wm-2
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The climate has already started to change
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Impacts
• Temperature increase
Source: IPCC FAR (2007)
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Impacts
• Sea level rise (0.2-0.6 meter by the year 2100)
• Thermal expansion of oceans
• Melting glaciers
• Possible long-term concern: Greenland and Western Antarctic ice sheets
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Impacts
• Temperature increase
• Sea level rise
• More intense precipitation
• Droughts
• Biodiversity
• Positive impacts
• A lot of uncertainty remains
Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004
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THE CHALLENGE
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Global greenhouse gas emissions (2000)
Source:Stern report 2006
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Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels
Source: CDIAC
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
"Developed" nations
Former eastern bloc
"Developing" countries
billion tons C/year
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Data from 2002. Sources: FAO, CDIAC
6
5
4
3
2
1
00 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Population (million)
CO
2 e
mis
sion
s (t
onC
/cap
ita)
USA
Canada, N.Z., Australia
Russia Japan
W.Europe
E.Europe Middle East
China L.America Other Asia
India Africa
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels (per capita 2002)
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SOME SOLUTIONS
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Options to reduce CO2 emissions from the energy system
Use less energy
Use other forms of energy
Capture and store carbon
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Energy efficiency – half of the solution!
Plug-in hybrids
Co-generation Energy efficient lamps
Energy-efficient houses
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Rapid growth in wind power
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000
GW
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Rapid growth in wind power
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1980 1990 2000
GW
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Fuel use in Swedish district heating
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
TWh/år
BiomassOil
Coal
Others
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Biomass – a complex form of energy
PROMISING FORMS: - Sugar cane ethanol- Woody biomass for heat and co-generation
LESS PROMISING- Wheat ethanol- RME from rapeseed (area intensive, expensive, often associated with high GHG emissions)
RISKS & OPPORTUNITIESHigher food prices Sensitive ecosystems
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769 Mha
1960 Mha
Sweden 45 Mha
957 Mha
317 Mha
1787 Mha3031 Mha
507 MhaRussia 1708 Mha
500 Mha of energy plantations?
Biomass plantations
Millons of hectares of biomass – dream eller nightmare?
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Future role of nuclear power?
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Herzog et al Scientific American, February 2000.
with structural traps
130 – 500 Gton C
30 – 650 Gton C
Enhanced oil recovery
20 – 65 Gton C
Grimston et al (2001).
Carbon storage possibilities
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Biomass energy
CO2
Wood
CO2
Power
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Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage
CO2
WoodPower
CO2
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10,000 times more energy from the sun
The small squares show the area of solar cells required to power and fuel the world
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Energy scenario towards 350 ppmv
Azar et al, Climatic Change (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
EJ/yr
nuclear
coal
oil
solar H2
biomass
solar electr.
wind
gas
solar heat
hydro
coal w capt.
gas w capt.
bio w capt.
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The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (I)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
350 ppm 450 ppm 550 ppm
stabilisation target
Trillion USD
Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
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The cost to stabilise the atmosphere (II)
Source Azar & Schneider, 2002. Ecological Economics
Global GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2100
Year
Trillion USD/yr
Bau
350 ppm
450 ppm
550 ppm
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CLIMATE POLICY
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Policy measures are needed
•Carbon price (tax or cap-and-trade system)– It is the cap not the trade that reduces emissions
•Energy efficiency standards
•Support to advanced technologies – R&D
– Market diffusion programmes
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International negotiations
• UNFCCC 1992
• Kyoto protocol 1997
• Bali action plan 2007
• Copenhagen meeting in December 2009:
– Capping emissions in ”developed countries”,
– Emission reductions in ”developing countries”,
– Financing adaptation,
– Mechanisms to reduce deforestation
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Conclusions
• Tough challenge
• Technically feasible… (aviation and meat consumption possible exemptions)
• Economically feasible…
• But trends go in the wrong direction
• Policy measures needed, but is there enough political will?
• Points for discussions:
– Which role for Indonesia?
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How do we best protect sensitive ecosystems and rural poor who lack formal property rights to their land?
- Certificate systems?- Import taxes?- No biomass?
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Nuclear energy and nuclear weapons
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS?
• Only those countries that already have enrichment and reprocessing plants should be allowed to have it?
• The entire fuel cycle under multinational control?
• New reactor designs?
POSSIBLE CONCLUSIONS
• Nuclear energy is clearly not the only pathway to nuclear weapons
• But under current frameworks a world wide effort to
expand nuclear energy is hardly attractive
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Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238
ReprocessingFinal disposal
0,7% U235, 99,3% U238
Separation of plutonium
U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products areproduced
Civilian nuclear fuel cycle
Reactor
Natural Uranium
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Enrichment Ca 4% U235, 96% U238
ReprocessingFinal disposal
0,7% U235, 99,3% U238
Separation of plutonium
U235 is fissioned, Pu + fission products areproduced
Links to nuclear weapons
Reactor
Natural Uranium
Nuclear bombs Highly enriched uranium
or plutonium
90% U235
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Nuclear weapons a broader perspective• More than 26 000 nuclear weapons, total yield corresponds
to 200 000 hiroshima bombs
• 2000 on hair-trigger alert (15-30 minute notice)
• NPT aims at preventing proliferation. Further, weapons states should strive towards ”complete disarmament” (article VI).
• Can England require that Iran cease with its enrichment program while they at the same time plan to modernise their own weapons capacity?
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CO2-concentration and temperature
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Nuclear energy and weapons• Technological risks
– Enrichment facility (dual use)– Reprocessing (dual use)– Nuclear reactor produces around 200 kg Pu/year
• International policy and security analysis– Sweden, Finland etc no ambition to get weapons, – USA, China, etc already have– Which countries should have the right to have advanced civilian nuclear
energy programmes? Development of NPT?– Benevolent regimes might become aggressive, and vice versa.
• More nuclear for Sweden and the US build more nuclear?– Which signal do we want to send? – The bigger nuclear industry, the stronger lobbying against other countries
(think of France and Sarkozy)