chris mefforduwrkv1tfwdaepojv2l6xk712-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/... · rainier valley community...

President & CEO

Chris Mefford

February 26, 2020

Rainier Valley Community Development Fund | October 2019 2

•Economic development•Community development•Municipal finance•Real estate & land use•Regional economics•Economic impacts

•Strategic plans•Research reports•On-line interactive dashboards

•Program design

•Local and regional economies

•Urban, mid-sized cities, and rural areas nationwide

•Global reach to more than 100 countries

• Trends & Analysis• Forecasts• Projects & Strategies

February 26, 2020 OneRedmond 3

Contents

February 26, 2020 4

Real GDP

OneRedmond

Sources: St. Louis FRED, 2020.

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Billions 2019 $

U.S. Gross Domestic Product 1950 – 20192019 Dollars

$21.7 TrillionUp 2.1%, annually

February 26, 2020 5

Real Federal Deficit

OneRedmond

-$2,000

-$1,500

-$1,000

-$500

$0

$500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Billions 2019 $


U.S. 1950 – 2019, 2019 $

$984.4 Billion, 2019Up 107% from 2015 recent low

February 26, 2020 6

Federal Debt vs GDPU.S. Federal Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 1950 - 2019

OneRedmond

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

Share of GDP


4.6% of GDP in 2019

February 26, 2020 7OneRedmond

Washington State GDP, 2018 $511.7 BillionUp 5.8%

2.7% of U.S.2.3% of U.S. Population

King County GDP, 2018 $277.1 BillionUp 7.6%

54% of WA30% of WA Population

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


February 26, 2020 8OneRedmond

King County GDP, 2018 $277.1 BillionUp 7.6%

54% of WA30% of WA Population

3 Eastside Cities $74.6 Billion27% of King County

15% of County Population

Community Attributes Inc. Based on wages paid


February 26, 2020 9

Regional GDPEastside cities, 2009 – 2018, estimated, 2018 $

OneRedmond

Sources: Puget Sound Regional Council 2020; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2020; St. Louis FRED, 2020; Community Attributes, 2020.

40% 40% 40% 40% 41% 40% 41% 42% 42% 43%

34% 35% 34% 33% 34% 33%33% 33%

32%31%11% 12% 12%

12% 12% 12%12%

12%11%

12%

11% 10% 11%11% 11%

11%11%

10%11%

11%

3% 3% 3%3% 3%

3%3%

3%3%

3%

$205 $207 $211$221 $227

$235$245 $252

$264$277

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

KirklandRedmondBellevue

Rest of King County

Seattle

26% of King County

February 26, 2020 10

Labor Force Participation & Unemployment1948 – December 2019

OneRedmond


50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

65.0%

70.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Labor Force Participation %Unemployment Rate %

U.S.Unemployment

U.S.Labor Force Participation

Seattle MSA Unemployment

Unemployment Rate in Seattle MSA

3.6%December 2019


EmploymentJobs by eastside city and total, 2009-2019 (est.)

OneRedmond

Sources: Puget Sound Regional Council, 2019; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2020; Community Attributes, 2020.

Kirkland

Redmond

Bellevue

249,200

234,100

241,500

240,100 245,000 255,200

263,000 266,900

279,200 283,700

295,400

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Eastside Jobs

OneRedmond

3,200

1,300

8,600

37,100

49,400

13,100

23,200

30,800

114,700

98,400

85,700

118,300

1,100

1,200

1,600

8,100

10,300

11,800

12,500

15,500

37,400

47,400

66,500

70,200

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000

Manufacturing: Paper & Chemicals

Mining, Ag, Utilities

Food & Apparel Production

Education

Government

Heavy Manufacturing

Construction

Wholesale Trade & Transport

Personal, Health, Private Education

Retail, Accommodations, Food & Arts

Information

Professional, Finance, Real Estate

EastsideSeattle

January 17, 2020 13

Workers and IncomeWorkers by Wage Range (2017 dollars)King, Pierce, and Snohomish Counties

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, OES, 2018.

442 K421 K

381 K

265 K

174 K

469 K 469 K 469 K

281 K

187 K

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Less than$32,000

$32,000 to$50,000

$50,000 to$82,000

$82,000 to$125,000

More than$125,000

2007 2017

Workers

Annual Earnings 2017 $

10th Percentile (0.3% CAGR)





$-

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

2018 $

Wages & IncomesSeattle-Bellevue-Everett

261,440 269,670 274,690 277,640 284,640 288,890 293,690 300,100

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Population


PopulationPopulation by eastside city and total, 2012-2019

OneRedmond

Sources: WA Employment Security Department, 2020.

Kirkland

Redmond

Bellevue

• All cities growing in population

• Major housing projects make a big difference year by year

• Together grew slightly faster than King County since 2012 (1.9% v 1.7% per year)

• Seattle grew by 2.5% per year

OneRedmond 16


N

21

Jobs (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)1990-2025

5 K14 K 12 K 12 K

21 K

44 K

71 K62 K

35 K 31 K

-16 K

-46 K

-14 K

9 K

34 K44 K 44 K

18 K

-76 K

-18 K

26 K37 K

42 K 42 K49 K 52 K

41 K 40 K50 K

40 K 41 K 38 K 34 K 31 K 29 K

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021

Thousands of New Jobs

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; CAI 2020

February 26, 2020

22

Job Growth Seattle Region

0.5%1.3% 1.0%

1.9%

3.8%

5.8%4.8%

2.6%

-1.1%

-3.3%

-1.0%

0.7%

2.5%3.2%

1.2%

-5.1%

-1.3%

1.9%2.9% 3.2%

2.5%2.9%

2.3% 2.1%1.8%1.6%

1.5%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Growth Rate

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020; Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, Puget Sound Regional Council, 2019; Community Attributes Inc., 2020.

February 26, 2020

23

Jobs (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)2011-2025

49 K

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, Puget Sound Regional Council; Washington State Employment Security Department, 2001-2023; Community Attributes Inc., 2020.

40 K 41 K38 K

34 K31 K

29 K

51 K48 K

44 K42 K 40 K40 K

32 K29 K

24 K21 K

19 K

26 K

37 K42 K 42 K

49 K52 K

41 K 40 K

50 K

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Thousands of New Jobs Most Likely ScenarioLow Scenario

High Scenario

February 26, 2020

24

Jobs by Industry (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)

34.2

11.2

64.7

26.6

6.5

59.8

30.7

37.9

7.8

23.1

9.1

1.4

29.0 30.4

3.1

48.0

29.6 27.4

4.9

20.3

(10)

10

30

50

70

Logging,mining &

construction

Manufacturing Trade,Transportation

&Utilities

Information FinancialActivities

Professional &BusinessServices

Education &Health Services

Leisure &Hospitality

Other Services Government

2012 - 2019 2019-2023 (Forecast)Thousand New Jobs

Sources: WA Employment Security Department, Employment Projections June 2018; Puget Sound Regional Council, Regional Macroeconomic Forecast, April 2017; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2018; Community Attributes 2018

February 26, 2020

Jobs by Occupations (Seattle-Bellevue-Everett)Historic and estimated (2015-2019) and forecast (2020-2013)

Sources: Washington State Employment Security Department; Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2012-2023

25

30.0

19.3

15.1

13.3

13.1

8.6

8.4

7.2

5.5

5.3

28.7

22.9

21.7

23.3

7.7

7.0

9.2

6.3

6.2

- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Computer and Mathematical

Food Preparation and Serving Related

Business and Financial Operations

Management

Office and Administrative Support

Education, Training, and Library

Sales and Related

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical

Personal Care and Service

Transportation and Material Moving

2020-2023 (Forecast)

2015-2019 (Historic)

Thousand New Jobs

February 26, 2020


Jobs and Housing Units

2.3

1.3

3.4

2.2

1.7 1.5

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Bellevue Kirkland Redmond Eastside Seattle King County

Jobs per Housing Unit

• Regionally 1.3 jobs per housing unit

• King County as a whole imports labor

• Eastside altogether is a major employment center


HousingNet New Housing Units by Eastside City and Total, 2014 - 2019

OneRedmond

Kirkland

Redmond

Bellevue

930

1,330

2,020

1,760

1,540 1,710

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Housing Units

Sources: Washington State Office of Financial Management, 2020.


More higher income households, fewer lower income households on the Eastside

OneRedmond

34,600 26,600

9,400 7,500

27,600 28,900

21,500 27,600

15,100 29,600

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2013 2018

Eastside Cities Households by Income (2018 dollars)

$200,000 or more

$125,000 to $199,999 (120% to 200%)

$75,000 to $124,999 (80% to 120%)

$60,000 to $74,999 (60% to 80%)

Less than $60,000 (less than 60%)

Households

108,200

120,200


Missing Middle Housing Conversation

OneRedmond

King County per capita Income, 2018: $90,000Median Household Income, 2018: $95,000HUD Area Median Income, 2019: $108,600

$100,000 household income assumption40% toward housing (burdened)$2,500 principal + interest monthly$520,000 purchase price

$100,000+ down payment required


$520,000 Maximum Purchase Price, Zillow, February 25, 2020

OneRedmond

• $100,000 household income• $520,000 max price

• $100,000 down payment• 6 years required to save for

down payment

• About 50 for sale in three Eastside cities


For rent, up to $2,000 per month

OneRedmond


Silicon ValleyEastside King County looks pretty good

OneRedmond

• $125,000 household income• $650,000 purchase price

• $130,000 down payment• 8.5 years to save for down payment

33

Population Growth & Housing Unit Change

Source: WA Office of Financial Management, 2018.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 Annual Households & Housing Unit ChangeKing County, 2000-2018

Housing Units Households

Gentrification & Displacement Risk

Sources: American Community Survey, 5-Year 2011-2015; Zillow 2018; Community Attributes Inc., 2018.34

January 17, 2020 35

Growth StrategiesTRADE SHOWS

BrandingMarketing, Promotion

SITE SELECTION SUPPORT

Entrepreneurial SupportHigher Education

WorkforceSupports

BUSINESS CLIMATE

PermittingBusiness Support

BASIC NEEDS HousingTRANSPORTATION

Public Safety

Schools & Early ChildhoodParks & Trails

PUBLIC HEALTH

VIBRANT NEIGHBORHOODS

CULTURAL ASSETS

Go after what we want

Work with what we’ve got

Be a good place to live

Trade Development

Thank you!

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