chris hazard - measuring and manipulating player biases and trust through choice and game mechanics
TRANSCRIPT
Measuring and ManipulatingPlayer Trust through Choice and
Game Mechanics
Christopher J. Hazard, PhDCEO Hazardous Software Inc.
● having reason or understanding● relating to, based on, or agreeable
to reason: reasonable
Rational● having reason or understanding● relating to, based on, or agreeable
to reason: reasonable
-Merriam Webster
Humans are rational*
*given limited computational bounds, unfounded beliefs of others, inaccurate capability assessments, inexplicable valuations, and some level of [im]patience
Machines are rational*
*given limited computational bounds, unfounded beliefs of world, wrong models, inexplicable valuations, and some level of implicit [im]patience
from zap2it.com
from trutv.com
by tinyfroglet, cc
from supermanhomepage.com
from Seattle Weekly
from penny-arcade.com
Reputation● Belief about attribute● Hindsight, capabilities,
statistics● Concern: adverse
selection
Trust● Belief will not exploit● Foresight, strategy, game
theory● Concern: moral hazard
+
Trustworthiness ~ Patience
Trustworthiness Isomorphic to Discount Factor
● Compare two agents interacting with third in pure moral hazard situation
● Assumptions– Consistent valuations– Quasilinearity– Trustworthiness sufficiently consistent– Individually rational
● All else equal, given definitions & assumptions, only factor that affects trustworthiness is discount factor
Discounting Everywhere Stochastic search Amortization Bellman Equation Reinforcement Learning Markov Decision Processes & POMDPs
Normalize discount rate wrt time
Creeping Sniper's Dilemma
● Single sniper optimal strategy; slow creep out = low risk
● Multiple sniper optimal strategy● Match quickest visible discount strategy unless too risky
Negotiating
Rubenstein Negotiation v1 = (1-γ2)/(1-γ1γ2) Inequalities if rationality not guaranteed Player & NPC interaction inequalities
Impatience NPC disagreements with player over choices
Measuring discount factor by choice
Combining Observations: Bayesian Inference
Optimal Level of Patience for Given Scenario
Trust Exploration● Measure valuations,
discount factor, beliefs, maxent regions
● NPCs of different trustworthiness
● Reputations Trust Exploitation● Push player's ethics
buttons: “what is your price?”
● Stability & comfort vs conflict
● Trickery
Psychological Heuristics of Trust
Homophily
Embedding
Corroboration
Mass Effect 3
Image from WoW Cataclysm
Image from Heavenly Sword
Homophily
Embedding
Corroboration
Acceptance and Affirmation Antitheses (Alliterated)
- Algorithm aversion Dietvorst et al., J Exp Psych 2013
+ Anthropomorphization
- Abeyance of absorbtion
+ Acceptance acquiered after asking assistance Flynn, Org Behav & Hum Dec Proc, 2003
Selling Trust With Nuance 1:Don't [unintentionally] Scare Players
Nevermind (forthcoming) – Monitor fright
Balloon Brigade
NBA 2K14 - Swearing
IQ, Depression, Behavior, Health,Preferences, Diet, Injuries, Friends, etc. -Newman, Jerome, & Hazard, AIPLA, 2014
Psychometrics for Predicting Behavior – Poore et al., J Cognitive Engineering, 2014.
Selling Trust With Nuance 2:Physiology
● More permissive on right ear than left- Marzoli & Tommasi, Sci of Nat, 2009
● Two-streams hypothesis for vision processing● Foveal & spatial detail vs perifoveal & temporal
detail● Mutual exclusion between physical & social
reasoning– Jack et al., Neuroimage, 2012
● Push players to practice self-control– Denson, DeWall, Finkel, Cur Dir in Psych Sci., 2012
Selling Trust With Nuance 3:Hypnosis & Trance
● Relaxation● Memory● Creativity
● Suggestability● Awe & comfort● Biases● Placebo effect
Trust & Society
● Enforcing/sanctioning to combat lies● Incentive compatibility & revelation principle wrt
information asymmetry● Level of trust req'd for system & efficiency
● Too trusting with homophily, embedding, corroboration?● Common inability to play “red player”
Direct Applications (Conclusions)
NPC decisions: favors, purchases, alliances Measuring player patience Adversary willingness to look ahead related to
organizational trust (e.g., big bad) NPC subordinates following player commands
based on trustworthiness (explicit or implicit)
