chris dunstan decentralised energy roadmap
TRANSCRIPT
7/28/2019 Chris Dunstan Decentralised Energy Roadmap
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1. Building resilience
2. Why 100% renewables is not enough
3. The role of decentralised energy4. Tools for an energy revolution
5. Making it happen
Overview
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2012
SummerArc)cSeaIce
Source: NASAhttp://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010900/a010919/index.html
1980
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www.ipcc.ch/ www.ipcc.ch/
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/presentations/20th%20Anniversary%20BFM/pres-wg-2-ipcc.pdf
IPCC Projected Sectoral Impacts of Climate Change:
“Tipping points” at ~2oC of warming
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Dealing with success
> Carbon emissions- falling
> Electricity consumption- falling
> Solar - booming> Wind - growing
> Coal power stations – unbuildable
> Renewable energy target – 20% by 2020
> Carbon price – in place
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First they ignore you
Then they laugh at you
Then they fight you
Then you win.you are here
…
…
…
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“Many anti-coal activists are deluding the public about their
real agenda. For them, development is the problem. Theyare really saying that energy consumption must be radically
cut. But, that means accepting unfed mouths, uncured
poverty and subsistence existence.”
Dr Nikki WilliamsCEO of the Australian Coal Association22 May 2013
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Environmental
How do we protect and enhance…?
…capital
…resilience
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Peak LoadManagement
What is Decentralised Energy (DE)?
Energy
EfficiencyDistributedGeneration
Cogeneration
Interruptible loads
Efficient motors & chillers
Efficient Lighting
Efficient showerheads
Efficiency Retrofits
Power factor correction
Gas Chillers
Ice Storage
Electric to Gas Hot Water
Standby Generation
Time of Use tariiffs
Biomass Generation
Small Gas Generation
Solar Photovoltaics
Behaviour change
Battery Storage / EVs
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DEWildCard1:SolarPVAustralian solar industry:
> 1 million solar homes
• 1031MW installed capacity in 2011
• 9400 Employees in 2010
• Growth rate – 210% 2010-2011
International industry growth rate: 44% annuallySolar PV ($/W)
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DE Wild Card 2: Electric Cars
The Mitsubishi i-MiEV
Q. How many Volts = Australia’stotal peak electricity demand?
A. ~800,000 (= 6% of the fleet)
(16kWh of batteries +54 kW electric generator)
(16kWh of batteries +150 km range)
(Chevy) Holden Volt
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Wild cards interactions? e.g. EV + PVs
(Chevy) Holden VoltCost of Solar PV: 2001-2011
Solar is already at grid parity costin parts of Australia
What happens when you combine:cheap solar energy with... “free” battery storage and
abundant local generation?
(16kWh of batteries +54 kW electric generator)
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DE Wild Card 3:
Empowering consumers (& 3rd parties) with data
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When does leaving the grid(or “light connection”)
become viable?
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Source: IEA,
World Energy Outlook 2011, Fig6.4
How to cut carbon emissions?
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c o s t - e f f e c t i v e
e n e r g y s a v i n g s ( % )
Australia’s huge energy efficiency potential (2003)
Ministerial Council on Energy , Towards a National Framework for Energy Efficiency— Issues and challenges Discussion paper , November 2003
http://www.ret.gov.au/documents/mce/energy-eff/nfee/_documents/nfee_discussio.pdf
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California:
Energy efficiency
now a major revenue stream
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
M W
P e a k D e m a n
d
Year
US Utility Demand Management (DM)- Actual Peak Load Reductions
Energy Efficiency
Peak Load Management
Total Aust. NEM Summer Peak Demand
(Sources: US Energy Information Administration & AEMO)
= 4.4% of US Peak Demand
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25Source: AEMC , Future Possible Retail Electricity Price Movements, 2010; Treasury modelling (*Vic = 2012)
Comparison of electricity prices by state (2011/12)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
ACT Qld NSW VIC* SA
C e n t s p e r k i l o w a t t - h o u r ( A U D
2 0 1 0 )
GST
Carbon Price
ESS/REES
GGAS /Qld Gas
SRES
LRET
FiT
Metering
Retail
Distribution
Transmission
Generation
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26Source: IPART, Review of regulated retail prices and charges for electricity 2013 to 2016, (2012)
Components of electricity price rises in NSW2007/08 - 2012/13
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Network Investment: >$45 Billion by 2015(bigger and sooner than National Broadband Network)
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205 km long 330 kV Dumaresq to Lismore line60 metre wide easement Cost - $210 million
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Barriers
Technical Ins)tu)onal
Current
Technology
Current
Costs
Regulatory
Failure
Inefficient
Pricing
Payback
Gap
Split
Incen)ves
Lackof
Informa)on
Cultural
Barriers
Barriers to Energy Efficiency (& DE)
Institutional barriers are crucial
What it doesWhat it costs
What slows it down
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Survey of Perceived Barriers
• Do stakeholders agree thesebarriers are real?
• Which barriers most important?
• Do different stakeholder groupssee barriers differently?
– 800 stakeholders;
– 200 replies
www.a2se.org.au/images/stories/files/a2se_isf_dm
%20barriers%20report%20june%202011.pdf
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Survey Respondents
Category Respondents #Respondents
U)li)es EnergyU)lity–NetworkEnergyU)lity–Retailer
EnergyU)lity–Generator
295
1
Government GovernmentAgency–Federal
GovernmentAgency–State
GovernmentAgency–Local
2
20
8
EndUser EnergyConsumer–Commercial
EnergyConsumer–Industrial
12
2
DMProvider DemandManagementProvider
DemandManagementConsultancy
EnergySupplyConsultancy
8
17
14
Other Environmentalorganisa)onConsumerorganisa)on
Industryorganisa)on
Regulator
ResearchIns)tu)on
Other
168
3
2
26
28
*
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18th
- Lack of Carbon Price -
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Stakeholder Type:
Level of AgreementTop 10 Barriers to DE
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Regulation Enticement(Incentives)
Information
Overcoming Barriers - The Policy Palette
Primary Instruments
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Facilitation
Pricing
Targets
Regulation Incentives
Information
Regulation Enticement
Information
Coordination
Secondary Instruments
Overcoming Barriers - The Policy Palette
20 Policy Tools for EE & DE
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20 Policy Tools for EE & DE
RegulatoryReform
Enticement
Information
Facilitation
Pricing reform
Targets
2
Coordination
1:DECoordina-onAgency
2:Decoupleelectricitysales
fromnetworkprofits
3:ReformNa-onalElectricity
Rules
4:StreamlineDGLicensing
5:ExtendretailerEEtargets
6:DEtargets&repor-ng
7:Resourceassessments&case
studies
8:DEhandbook&advisory
service
9:Networkplanninginfo
10:AnnualDEReview
11:Energyaudits&technical
support
12:Training&skills
development
13:Streamlinenetworknego-a-onprocess
14:DEOmbudsman
15:Publicrecogni-on&awards
16:DistributedEnergyFund
17:Reformfeedintariffs
18:CarbonPrice
19:Costreflec-vepricing20:Networksupportpayments
34
19
18
20
16
17
15
13 14
10
12
119
8
1
6
5
7
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DE Roadmap on the North Coast
An Energy Savings Partnership:
> Focus on reducing peak demand and energy efficiency
> Reducing carbon and costs
> Engaging with the network businesses “Essential”
> Set ambitious collaborative targets with electricity networks
e.g. $100 million p.a. in avoided capex and consumers savings> Regular performance reporting
> Build into “business as usual” via economic regulation (AER)
– Make clean energy more profitable energy for networks
– Next regulatory period begins July 2014
> Engage in technical issues e.g. managing overvoltage anddisconnection of PV
> Engaging the community (the “shareholders”)40
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Precedent: Queensland Energy Conservation &Demand Management Program
> In 2009/10, Qld Govt allocated $47 million for demonstration projects
> In 2010, Energex and Ergon sought and were allocated ~$220 million for Demand Management programs from the Australian Energy Regulator
> Energex and Ergon now have extensive plans, teams,budgets and targets in place to reduce demand growthand support DE.
> But under threat...
41
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© Institute forSustainable Futures, 42http://www.energex.com.au/network/network_prices/pdf/Energy%20Conservation%20&%20Demand%20Management.pdf
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Conclusions
> Network investment is driving rapid rising power prices
> DE provides the best real prospect to limit increasing bills andcarbon emissions
> There is significant progress, but small compared to the potential
> DE faces major barriers
> Regulatory reform is essential, – but slow, and not sufficient
> Other tools required
> Improved data and information about DE is crucial
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Some Questions
> How do we build resilience: Environmental, Economic, Social
> Conflict vs cooperation?
> How to engage the community?
> Engaging the electricity supply industry?
> Engaging (or not) in the bizarre complexity of regulatory reform?
> Staying calm and staying passionate?
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Thankyou