“Advanced Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Financial Economics: Theory, Methods and Applications”

CHINESEECONOMISTSSOCIETY(CES)2019NORTHAMERICACONFERENCE

APRIL6-7,2019Department of Economics, University of Kansas

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“Advanced Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Financial Economics: Theory, Methods and Applications”

CHINESEECONOMISTSSOCIETY(CES)2019NORTHAMERICACONFERENCE

APRIL6-7,2019DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofKansas

Co-Organizers • The Chinese Economists Society • University of Kansas

Co-Sponsors § Department of Economics, University of Kansas § School of Economics, Henan University § Gregory and Paula Chow Foundation

Conference Venue:

o WESCOE HALL at The North District of KU Campus (see map)

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ORGANIZINGCOMMITTEE

Co-Chairs§ MilenaStanislavova,Ph.D.,ProfessorandDepartmentChair,Departmentof

Economics,UniversityofKansas§ ZongwuCai,Ph.D.,TheCharlesOswaldProfessorofEconometricsandProfessorof

Economics,DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofKansas;thePresidentofTheChineseEconomistsSocietyMembers

§ Ying Fang, Xiamen University § Josephine Lugovskyy, University of Kansas § Xiaoguang (Shawn) Ni, University of Missouri at Columbia § Weiguo Wang, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics § Jianbo Zhang, University of Kansas

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CURRENT (2018-2019) CES OFFICERS

President

§ ZongwuCai,UniversityofKansas

President-Elect

§ JunfuZhang,ClarkUniversity

VicePresidents

§ YingFang,XiamenUniversity§ WeiguoWang,DongbeiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics

BoardofDirectors

§ ZhongjianLin,EmoryUniversity§ Xiaoguang(Shawn)Ni,UniversityofMissouriatColumbia§ TaoZha,AtlantaFedandEmoryUniversity§ JianboZhang,UniversityofKansas

CURRENTCESINSTITUTIONALMEMBERS

§ ColgateUniversity§ DongbeiUniversityofFinanceandEconomics(InstituteforAdvancedEconomicResearch)

§ XiamenUniversity(ChinaInstituteforStudiesinEnergyPolicy)

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THECHINESEECONOMISTSSOCIETY The Chinese Economists Society (CES) is a non-profit professional organization registered in the United States. The aim of the Society is to promote scholarly exchanges among its members and contribute to the advancement and dissemination of economics and management sciences in China.

Over the years more than 4000 individuals joined the CES from academia, research institutes, and other public or private organizations throughout North America, Asia, Europe, and other parts of the world. CES members are or have been in leadership position in government agencies, universities, research institutes, multinational firms, and international institutions including the People’s Bank of China, the World Bank, and IMF. The Society is considered the most influential group that bridges academic exchanges in economics and management sciences between the North America and China.

The Society held its first annual conference held in Princeton, N.J. in 1985. To better promote market-based economic reforms in China, the Society has organized its annual conference in China since 1993, often jointly hosted with a Chinese university. The CES conferences have been widely attended by internationally renowned economists, senior government officials, and business leaders. The Society also organizes themed North America conferences. The CES conferences have had profound policy impacts on China’s market-oriented transition and reforms as well as economic development strategy.

In 1989, the CES launched an English-language journal China Economic Review (CER), which achieved worldwide circulation and became a highly influential academic periodical on China’s economy in just a few years. The CES became a member of the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) in 1992 and has sponsored independent and joint sessions with other associations at the annual ASSA meetings since then.

Since 1990, the CES has run short-term teaching programs every year to support its overseas members to teach in Chinese universities. The programs were initially funded by the Ford Foundation and later sponsored by the Paula and Gregory Chow Foundation.

Most of the CES institutional members are universities in China. The CES has become an important platform for Chinese universities and institutions to recruit in North America. Every year through the CES-organized events and networking, universities and institutions in China have successfully recruited many young economists.

The CES is committed to serving its members and promoting the scholarly exchange between academic and research communities in the North America and in China.

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DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS, UNIVERSITY OF KANSAS

Welcome to the Department of Economics at the University of Kansas, home of the Charles W. Oswald Program in Economics.

Our Program educates about 350 undergraduate majors, with 100-150 graduating seniors every year. These students are able to earn Bachelor of Arts, Bachelor of General Studies, or Bachelor of Science degrees. We are committed to limiting enrollment in all classes to 35 or fewer students with the exception of principle courses. Students receive training in microeconomics, macroeconomics, and econometrics as part of the core education for undergraduates. Graduates of the Oswald Program in Economics are successful in industry, government, and academia.

Graduate programs in Economics include a Master of Arts and a Ph.D. The MA program currently has about 15 students and there are around 50 students in the Ph.D. program. Each year 7-10 students complete their doctorate and 15 students complete their MA degree. Graduate courses have fewer than 20 students enrolled. Recent graduates are employed in universities, industry, central banks, international organizations, and government.

We are proud of the wonderful diversity of our department. Faculty and graduate students come from approximately 30 different countries. They are brought together in our community by their academic curiosity and their love of economics.

The University of Kansas is a major comprehensive research and teaching university in the world. The university's mission is to lift students and society by educating leaders, building healthy communities and making discoveries that change the world. The University of Kansas and the community of Lawrence provide an exceptional setting for our Department. Lawrence is a lovely and vibrant college town on the Kansas River and our beautiful campus sits on a hill in the middle of town, surrounded by cultural attractions. We are excited for you to learn more about our Department at http://economics.ku.edu/, about our University at https://ku.edu/, and the City of Lawrence. If you have questions, please feel free to contact the department at econ@ku.edu.

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IN MEMORY AND IN HONOR OF Dr. SHU WU

The University of Kansas community is mourning the death of Dr. Shu Wu, associate professor of economics, who passed away on May 31, 2018 after long battle with a cancer. He was 51.

“I am profoundly saddened to learn of the death of Professor Wu, who was both a dedicated scholar and a devoted teacher during his 18 years of service to our economics department,” said Chancellor Douglas A. Girod. “On behalf of the entire university, I offer my condolences to his family, his friends, and his KU colleagues and students.”

Professor Wu got his M.S. and B.S. in Management Science and Mechanics, respectively from Beijing University in 1990 and his Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University in 2000. Dr. Wu joined the department in 2000 as an assistant professor and the Charles W. Oswald Faculty Scholar. He was promoted to associate professor with tenure in 2007 and served as the associate chair and director of graduate programs from 2009 to 2016.

His areas of research spanned wide spectrum in economics, including but not limited to macroeconomics, financial economics, applied econometrics, and Chinese economy. Dr. Wu had numerous publications, including some in the top economics journals and conference presentations to his name, and he was a member of the American Economic Association, the American Finance Association and the Western Finance Association. More importantly, Professor Wu was elected as the member of the Board of Directors of The Chinese Economists Society (CES) for the academic school year of 2016-2017.

Dr. Milena Stanislavova, the department chair, called Professor Wu a great friend, an amazing colleague, and a distinguished macroeconomist. “A brilliant economist and a very fine person, he is beloved by everyone at KU Economics — our graduate students, faculty and staff,” Stanislavova said. “This is a terrible loss for all of us and for KU as well as for the entire economics profession, including the CES." Professor William Barnett edited the book in 2018, entitled “Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets” with ISBN: 978-1-78756-454-1, dedicated to the memory of the brilliant financial macroeconomist, Dr. Shu Wu, 1966-2018. Also, to honor his legacy, the department set a bench in the front of Snow Hall and established a Graduate Student Scholarship in memory of Dr. Shu Wu.

One of the goals of this conference is to honor the memory of Dr. Wu for his contributions to the department, the university, and the CES.

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HENANUNIVERSITY

The School of Economics at Henan University, founded in 1927, is the largest school of economics in Henan with about 160 faculty members and more than 3,000 students. We offer undergraduate, graduate and Ph.D. programs in economics in our departments of Economics, International Trade, Finance, Public Finance, Insurance, and Statistics.

The school of economics is dedicated to excellence in teaching and research and is constantly ranked among the top 40 schools in China on RePEc.

Since 2017 Henan University hosts the Henan University Center for Financial Development and Stability. The CFDS is at the center of a growing network of international universities and research institutions. The center sees it as core part of its mission to bring scholars from China and abroad together for cooperation and joint research.

Every year the center hosts an international conference on applied macroeconomics. For detailed information please see: appliedmacro.org.

Please send an email to our head of administration kerstin.el-shagi@cfds.henuecon.education to receive information about future conference.

In summer 2019, we will launch our visiting scholar program. We welcome scholars from both China and abroad for short stays of 2 to 4 weeks, or as visiting faculty for a whole semester. The CFDS covers travel, accommodation, and provides an excellent research environment. If you are interested, please check out:

http://cfds.henuecon.education/index.php/about-us/visiting-position

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CONFERENCE SCHEDULE Registration Registration opens on Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:00pm at Double Tree Hilton Hotel, and will stay open throughout the conference on site. Conference Venue: WESCOE HALL Saturday, April 6, 2019 (08:15-12:00) 08:15-08:30 Opening Ceremony

Chair: Dr. Zongwu Cai (President of CES) Welcome Speech: Dr. Milena Stanislavova (Chair for Economics Department, University of Kansas)

Wescoe 3139

08:30-09:00 Memory of Professor Shu Wu

Chair: Dr. Zongwu Cai Speakers: Dr. William Barnett (colleague) Dr. Jianbo Zhang (colleague) Dr. John Keating (colleague) Dr. Hongbin Li (Stanford’s classmate) Dr. Jun Ma (co-author) Dr. Yong Zeng (co-author) Dr. Josephine Lugovskyy (former Ph.D. student) Ms. Chen Sun (current Ph.D. student) More …

Wescoe 3139

09:00-09:40 Keynote I: Dr. Jerry Hausman, MIT

“Specification Test on Mixed Logit Models” Chair: Dr. Zongwu Cai, University of Kansas

Wescoe 3139

09:40-10:20 Keynote II: Dr. William Barnett, University of

Kansas “Bifurcation of Macroeconometric Models and Robustness of Dynamical Inferences” Chair: Dr. Jianbo Zhang, University of Kansas

Wescoe 3139

10:20-10:45 Coffee Break Wescoe Hallway

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10:45-12:00 Parallel Sessions A1: Economic Growth Wescoe 4001 A2: Belt and Road Wescoe 4002 A3: Macro Finance Wescoe 4007 A4: Population Wescoe 4008 A5: Applied Economics Wescoe 4018 A6: Econometrics Wescoe 4023 A7: Urban Economics Wescoe 4025 A8: Applied Microeconomics Wescoe 4033 A9: Environmental Economics Wescoe 4034 A10: Educational Economics Wescoe 4040 12:00-13:30 Lunch McClain’s Market

Saturday, April 6, 2019 (13:30-17:20)

13:30-14:10 Keynote III: Dr. Guofu Zhou, Washington University “Big Data: What Is the Impact on Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, and Bitcoin?” Chair: Dr. Jun Ma, Northeastern University

14:10-15:40 Invited Sessions B1: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu I Wescoe 4001 B2: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu II Wescoe 4002 B3: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu III Wescoe 4007 B4: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu IV Wescoe 4008 B5: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu V Wescoe 4018 B6: Digital Economics Wescoe 4023 B7: CES’s Presidents Forum Wescoe 4025 B8: Financial Economics Wescoe 4033 15:40-16:05 Coffee Break Wescoe Hallway 16:05-17:20 Parallel Sessions C1: Applied Econometrics Wescoe 4001 C2: Macroeconomics Wescoe 4002 C3: Belt and Road Wescoe 4007 C4: Labor Economics Wescoe 4008 C5: Economic Growth Wescoe 4018

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C6: Chinese Economy Wescoe 4023 C7: Law and Economics Wescoe 4025 C8: Business Cycles Wescoe 4033 C9: Econometrics Wescoe 4034 18:00-20:00 Dinner ECM Center

Sunday, April 7, 2019 (08:15-12:20) 08:15-08:55 Keynote IV: Dr. Cheng Hsiao, University of

Southern California “Panel Parametric, Semi-parametric, and Nonparametric Methods of Constructing Counterfactuals” Chair: Wing Woo, University of California at Davis

Wescoe 3139

08:55-09:35 Keynote V: Dr. Xiaohong Chen, Yale University

“On Rate-Adaptive, Minimax Estimation of Quadratic Functionals, and Rate-Adaptive Minimax Testing in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Models” Chair: Dr. Ying Fang, Xiamen University

Wescoe 3139

09:35-09:40 Best Paper Award

Chair: Dr. Shawn Ni, University of Missouri at Columbia Dr. Zhuo Chen (University of Georgia, The Former President of CES of 2017-2018) presents the award to the recipient.

Wescoe 3139

09:40-10:05 Coffee Break Wescoe Hallway 10:05-11:05 Invited Sessions D1: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VI Wescoe 4001 D2: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VII Wescoe 4002 D3: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VIII Wescoe 4007 D4: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu IX

D5: Digital Economics Wescoe 4008 Wescoe 4018

D6: Macroeconomics Wescoe 4023

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11:05-12:20 Parallel Sessions E1: Labor Economics Wescoe 4001 E2: Health Economics Wescoe 4002 E3: Econometrics Wescoe 4007 E4: Rural Economics Wescoe 4008 E5: Applied Macroeconomics Wescoe 4018 E6: Risk Wescoe 4023 E7: Insurance Wescoe 4025 E8: Chinese Economy Wescoe 4033 E9: Public Economics Wescoe 4034 12:20-1:30 Lunch Lobby at the

third floor, Snow Hall

Sunday, April 7, 2019 (13:30-15:10)

1:30-2:45 Round-Table Forum Chair: Makram El-Shagi, Henan University

Wescoe 3139

Panelists: Dr. William Barnett, Dr. Marcelle Chauvet, Dr. Cheng Hsiao, Dr. Hongbin Li, Dr. Christopher Otrok, Dr. Wing Woo, Dr. Guofu Zhou

2:45-3:10 Coffee Break Wescoe Hallway

Location for the dinner on Saturday (April 6): Please note that the dinner on Saturday is at the ECM which is the Ecumenical Campus Ministries here at KU, close to t Oread Hotel (about two blocks from Wescoe Hall, 5-10 minutes of walking), McClain’s Market is on the campus too (one block from Wescoe Hall, less than 5 minutes of walking), and Snow Hall is just cross street of Wescoe Hall. Schedules for Shuttle Buses: The shuttle buses departure from the hotel (Double Tree by Hilton) at 8:00 for each morning and return to the hotel from ECM at 8:00pm of Saturday (April 6) and from WESCOE HALL at 3:20pm of Sunday (April 7).

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CONFERENCE PROGRAM

Saturday, April 6, 2019 (10:45-12:00)

A1: Economic Growth Chair: Shawn Ni, University of Missouri at Columbia

Wescoe 4001

Innovation, Ownership Structure and Growth Presenter: Yu Cao, University of Southern California

Sustained Economic Growth with Greener Environment. Recommendation to Chinese Government for Green Economic Growth Presenter: Naz, Madeeha, University of International Business and Economics

A2: Belt and Road Chair: Yongjun Chen, Renmin University of China

Wescoe 4002

A Study on the Social Impact and Risk Indicators of CPEC Associated with Environmental and Cultural differences between Pakistan and China Presenter: Fawad Ahmed, Wuhan University of Technology Impact of Belt and Road on Trade cost, Multilateral Trade and Economic Growth of Economies Presenter: Umair Saeed Bhutta, Wuhan University of Technology

The Bonus of “the Belt and Road” through Openness and Cooperation Presenter: Yongjun Chen, Renmin University of China

A3: Macro Finance Chair: Wuqing Wu, Renmin University of China

Wescoe 4007

Currency Manipulation and the Prosperity of Nations: Empirical Implications from Kenya Presenter: San Lio, United States International University Inflation, Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Persistent Dollarization: Evidence from Cambodia Presenter: Fang Liu, Yunan Normal University

Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rate Exposures: Evidence from China Presenter: Junyi Liu, Soka University of America

A4: Population Chair: Zijun Luo, Sam Houston State University

Wescoe 4008

Dust Storms and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Taiwan Presenter: Cheng Chen, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics How will Hukou Reform Affect the City System in China? Presenter: Yijiao Liu, Stony Brook University

Does Hukou Pay? Evidence from Nanny Markets in Urban China Presenter: Zijun Luo, Sam Houston State University

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A5: Applied Economics Chair: Chi Man Yip, University of Calgary

Wescoe 4018

On the Extent to Which Consumers’ Behavior Reveals the Substitutability between Soft Drink and Coffee Presenter: Jingwen Liao, Kansas State University The Impacts of China’s Soybean Policies on World Soybean Price and Price Variability Presenter: Wenting Wang, Iowa State University Labor Market Dynamics in Slumps: What, So What, and Now What? Presenter: Chi Man Yip, University of Calgary

A6: Econometrics Chair: Yong Zeng, University of Missouri at Kansas City

Wescoe 4023

Estimation and Inference of Treatment Effects Using a New Panel Data Approach with Application to US SYG Law Presenter: Huayan Geng, SUNY Binghamton University Information Asymmetry and Leverage Adjustments: A Semiparametric Varying Coefficient Approach Presenter: Man Jin, Oakland University Comparing Latent Inequality with Ordinal Data Presenter: David Kaplan, University of Missouri

A7: Urban Economics Chair: Qing Han, University

Wescoe 4025

High Speed Rail and College Choice Presenter: Shiyu Cheng, University of Kentucky Impact of Shortened Travel Time Caused by HSR on Urban Economic Growth in China Presenter: Jing Fang, Chongqing University A8: Applied Microeconomics Chair: Yue Liu, Central University of Finance and Economics

Wescoe 4033

Is Online Market Pricing Fresh Produce Differently? Evidence from Revealed Data Presenter: Xiao Han (Purdue University) A Global Value Chain Model for World Output Adjustment by Sectors Caused A Currency Appreciation Presenter: Shabir Mohsin Hashmi, Jinan University Income Distribution, New-Consumer Margin, and Price Differences across Countries Presenter: Yue Liu, Central University of Finance and Economics

A9: Environmental Economics Chair: Ying Liu, Shandong University

Wescoe 4034

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Environmental Effects of Import Competition from China in the United States Presenter: Tingsi Wang, University of Tennessee Research on Internalization Mechanism of Emission Reduction Cost in Supply Chain Presenter: Hong Zhang, Changsha University of Science and Technology Effects of Driving Restrictions on Air Quality: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in China Presenter: Ying Liu, Shandong University

A10: Educational Economics Chair: Jian Zou, University of Illinois – Urbana Champaign

Wescoe 4040

Effectiveness of Interventions to Improve Academic Performance in Rural Chinese Primary Schools: A Pooled-Data Analysis from twelve RCTs Presenter: Jiaqi Gao, Shaanxi Normal University Impact of College Education on Migration in China Presenter: Xiaozhou Ding, University of Kentucky Understanding the Peer Effects of Non-Cognitive Ability on Academic Outcomes Presenter: Jian Zou, University of Illinois – Urbana Champaign

Saturday, April 6, 2019 (14:10-15:40)

B1: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu I: Macroeconomics and Financial Markets Chair: Cong Wang, Jinan University

Wescoe 4001

Monetary Services Aggregation Theory under Choquet Expectation Presenter: Qing Han, University of Kansas Global Housing Markets and Monetary Policy Spillovers: Evidence from OECD Countries Presenter: Jun Ma, Northeastern University Monetary Policy, Bank Liquidity and Risk-taking Presenter: Cong Wang, Jinan University

B2: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu II: Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Chair: Shigeru Iwata, University of Kansas

Wescoe 4002

Marginal Income Tax Rates, Economic Growth, and Primary Fiscal Deficits Presenter: Andrew Keinsley, Weber State University Cash Flow and Risk Premium Dynamics in an Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model with Recursive Preferences Presenter: Taeyoung Doh, Federal Reserve at Kansas City Is the Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest Real Presenter: Shigeru Iwata and Xunzhao Yin, University of Kansas

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B3: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu III: Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Chair: John Keating, University of Kansas

Wescoe 4007

Growth and Welfare Gains from Financial Integration under Model Uncertainty Presenter: Jun Nie, Federal Reserve at Kansas City Does Communicating a Numerical Inflation Target Anchor Inflation Expectations? Evidence and Bond Market Implications Presenter: Andrew Smith, Federal Reserve at Kansas City A Robust Empirical Model of Monetary Policy Presenter: John Keating, University of Kansas

B4: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu IV: Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Chair: Xuan Liu, East Carolina University

Wescoe 4008

Determinants of Survivals of Home Mortgage Loans Presenter: Chen Sun, University of Kansas GHH Preferences on Households' Portfolio Choices: Theoretical Implications and Empirical Evidence Presenter: Xuan Liu, East Carolina University

B5: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VII: Econometrics and Financial Economics Chair: Haiqiang Chen, Xiamen University Predictive Quantile Regression: Adaptive LASSO Approach Presenter: Rui Fan, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Wescoe 4018

Testing Unconfoundedness Assumption Using Auxiliary Variables Presenter: Ying Fang, Xiamen University A New Approach to Testing Predictability in Quantile Regression with Persistent Predictors Presenter: Haiqiang Chen, Xiamen University

B6: Digital Economics Chair: Jinlan Ni, University of Nebraska at Omaha

Wescoe 4023

Can (S)he Code? Gender Bias in an Open Source Software Community Presenter: Tingting Nian, University of California, Irvine Economists in Tech (Amazon) Presenter: Yuzheng Sun, Amazon Collateral and Cash Holdings during the Housing Bust: Evidence from Listed High-Tech Firms Presenter: Jinlan Ni, University of Nebraska at Omaha

B7: CES’s Presidents Forum Wescoe 4025

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Chair: Junfu Zhang, Clark University The Thucydides Trap in Sino-US Relations and Southeast Asia’s Struggle to Stay Neutral: How Can Economics to Ensure Good Outcomes Presenter: Wing Woo, University of California at Davis Chinese Economists: Demographics, Pay, and Time Use Presenter: Zhuo Chen, University of Georgia The Local Multiplier Effects of International Trade: Theory and Evidence from Presenter: Junfu Zhang, Clark University

B8: Financial Economics Chair: Ye Guo, Xiamen University

Wescoe 4033

Price Limit and Information Flow: Evidence from RMB Onshore and Offshore Markets Presenter: Qunyong Wang, Nankai University Textual Learning: Tone Effects of Analyst Reports on Market Timing of Chinese Managerial Shareholder Presenter: Wuqing Wu and Yue Zhao, Renmin University of China For Goodwill or Resources? The Rationale behind Chinese Private Firm’s Corporate Philanthropy under Economic Policy Uncertainty (with Ye Guo) Presenter: Ye Guo and Qiang Wen, Xiamen University

Saturday, April 6, 2019 (16:05-17:20)

C1: Applied Econometrics Chair: Lianfen Qian, Florida Atlantic University

Wescoe 4001

Short-Sale Constraints, Pricing Model Efficiency, and Return Co-movement Presenter: Qidi Feng, Jinan University Network and Spillovers of Sector Index Returns in China Stock Market Presenter: Xue Wang, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Spatial Association of Regional Finance in China via Network Analysis Presenter: Lianfen Qian, Florida Atlantic University

C2: Macroeconomics Chair: Jun Ni, Kansas City Fed

Wescoe 4002

Monetary Policy, Inflation and Real Estate Prices: Evidence from China Presenter: He Nie, Jinan University House Price Uncertainty, Business Cycles, and Welfare Presenter: Sanha Noh, University of Missouri Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Countries Presenter: Rongzi Shan, University at Albany, SUNY

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C3: Belt and Road Chair: Jack Hou, California State University at Long Beach

Wescoe 4008

CPEC as a Symbol of Game-Changer in Development Transport, Trade and Economy of Pakistan Presenter: Muhammad Farhan Mughal, Central China Normal University Public Perception of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor: A Stakeholder’s View Presenter: Naveed Ahmad Faraz, Wuhan University of Technology

C4: Labor Economics Chair: Zixin Liu, University of Missouri - Columbia

Wescoe 4018

Skills Matter: The Effects of Value-added Imports on Wages, Employment Uncertainty, and Inter-Occupational Mobility Presenter: Leilei Shen, Kansas State University The Impact of Cross Border Employment on Workers' Income in Border Areas—Based on Propensity Score Matching Method Presenter: Jie Yang, Yunnan Normal University Impact of College Expansion on Skilled Labor Market in China Presenter: Zixin Liu, University of Missouri - Columbia

C5: Economic Growth Chair: Zhilin Huang, Huaqiao University

Wescoe 4023

Political Loyalty, Leadership Style, and Economic Growth: Evidence from China Presenter: Guangjun Qu, Birmingham Southern College Labor Market Segmentation, Financial Constraints and Economic Growth in China Presenter: Yan Wang, Stony Brook University Do Exports Contribute to Economic Growth along Belt and Road Countries? — Evidence based on Panel Data Error Correction Model with Cross-sectional Dependence Presenter: Zhilin Huang, Huaqiao University

C6: Chinese Economy Chair: Liying Xia, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Wescoe 4025

International Fragmentation of Production and China's Manufacturing Export Sophistication: Empirical Analysis on China's 26 Manufacturing Industries Data Presenter: Yonghua Yang, Yunnan Normal University Equal Rights of Residents for Children’s Education: An Evaluation of the Real Estate Policy Intervention Presenter: Liying Xia, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

C7: Law and Economics Chair: Xiaohan Wang, Stony Brook University

Wescoe 4033

Legal Environment, Enterprise Specific Investment and Total Factor Productivity

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Presenter: Junqing Li, Nankai University Legal Environment, Contract Intensity and Export Product Quality Presenter: Kaifeng Liu, Nankai University The Role of Defaulted Debt Level for Renegotiation: Bygones No Longer Presenter: Xiaohan Wang, Stony Brook University

C8: Business Cycles Chair: Sarah Tang, Suffolk University

Wescoe 4034

Micro-Macro Antinomy ——Human Capital, Structure of Employment and Growth in China Presenter: Ran Zhao, Beijing Normal University Structural Matching Between Finance and the Real Economy and Economic Growth Presenter: Fanqing Zeng, Jinan University Energy Price, Investment and Business Cycle Presenter: Sarah Tang, Suffolk University

C9: Econometrics Chair: Ming Lin, Xiamen University

Wescoe 4040

Semiparametric Quantile Estimations for Functional Index Coefficient Models with Variable Selection Presenter: Xiyuan Liu, University of Kansas Finite-Sample Improvement for IV Quantile Regression Presenter: Xin Liu, University of Missouri Resampling Strategy in Sequential Monte Carlo for Constrained Sampling Problems Presenter: Ming Lin, Xiamen University

Sunday, April 7, 2019 (10:05-11:05)

D1: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VI: Econometrics and Financial Economics Chair: Zhengyan Lin, Zhejiang University

Wescoe 4001

Inferences for Varying-Coefficients Forward-Backward Diffusion Models Presenter: Weihuan Huang, Shandong University The Multifactor Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime Shifts and Levy Jumps Presenter: Yong Zeng, University of Missouri at Kansas City

D2: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VII: Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Chair: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri at Columbia

Wescoe 4002

VOILatility: Forecasting Oil Prices under Uncertainty Presenter: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California at Riverside

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Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime Switching Approach Presenter: Christopher Otrok, University of Missouri at Columbia

D3: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu VIII: Chinese Economy Chair: Hongbin Li, Stanford University

Wescoe 4007

The Huai River Boundary, Educational Attainment and Earnings: A Tale of Weather and Sex Presenter: Jeffrey Zax, University of Colorado Boulder The China Model Presenter: Hongbin Li, Stanford University D4: Special Session in Honor of Shu Wu IX: Business Economics Chair: Martin Sabo, University of Colorado at Denver How and When Do Headquarters-Subsidiary Interactions Carve Institutional Effects on Subsidiary Initiatives of Emerging MNCs? Presenter: Xiaoming Yang, University of Nebraska at Omaha Operations Management Tools, for All Size Businesses, Heading from West to East Presenter: Martin Sabo, University of Colorado at Denver

Wescoe 4008

D5: Digital Economics Chair: Will Wang, Microsoft

Wescoe 4018

Buying Data from Consumers – The Impact of Monitoring Programs in U.S. Auto Insurance Presenter: Yizhou Jin, Harvard University Double Logit Search and Bank Optimization Presenter: Will Wang, Microsoft

D6: Macroeconomics Chair: Makram El-Shagi, Henan University

Wescoe 4023

Peer Effects in Monetary Policy and Capital Structure Presenter: Bin Mo, Jinan University The Role of Measurement in Money Demand Estimation Presenter: Makram El-Shagi, Henan University

Sunday, April 7, 2019 (11:05-12:20)

E1: Labor Economics Chair: Xi Yang, University of North Texas

Wescoe 4001

Migrants and Criminal Offense Presenter: Lijun Zang, Zhejiang University

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Marriage Search with Active Search Decision: Theory and Application to Parents Searching on Behalf of their Adult Children in China Presenter: Weiwei Ren, Yunnan Normal University The Impact of Paternal Migration on Child Non-cognitive Skills: Evidence from Rural China Presenter: Xi Yang, University of North Texas

E2: Health Economics Chair: Huiwen Xu, University of Rochester

Wescoe 4002

Health Service Use and Catastrophic Expenditure among the Elderly with Chronic Disease in China Using CART Analysis Presenter: Qun Wang, Dalian University of Technology The Impact of a Multitopic Onsite Training Program on Village Doctor Knowledge and Adherence to Clinical Guidelines: A Randomized Controlled Trial in Rural China Presenter: Hao Xue, Shaanxi Normal University Association of China’s National Essential Medicines Scheme with Village Doctors’ Turnover intention: The Mediation Effect of Job Presenter: Huiwen Xu, University of Rochester

E3: Econometrics Chair: Qiankun Zhou, Louisiana State University

Wescoe 4007

Ratio of Ratios Estimator for the Treatment Effects on Positive Response Variables in Nonlinear Models Presenter: Shengwu Shang, University of Nebraska at Lincoln Semiparametric Estimation of Production Functions with Heterogeneous Prices Presenter: Shunan Zhao, Centre College of Kentucky Specification Tests for Time-Varying Coefficient Panel Models Presenter: Qiankun Zhou, Louisiana State University

E4: Rural Economics Chair: Xuanyue Zhang, Chongqing University

Wescoe 4008

Health Capital Impact Study on Rural Labor’s Off-farm Employment: Evidence from China Presenter: Wengjing Yu, Zhejiang University The Influence of Rural Tourism on Agricultural Socialization Service from the Perspective of Industrial Convergence: Evidence from the Village-level Data of the 3rd Agricultural Census in Beijing Presenter: Bin Huang, Renmin University of China The Impact of Household Income, Occupational and Demographic Structure on Agricultural Self-sufficiency of the Rural Household in China Presenter: Xuanyue Zhang, Chongqing University

E5: Applied Macroeconomics Wescoe 4018

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Chair: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California at Riverside The Impact of T+1 Trading Mechanism on China Stock Market: Negative Overnight Return Perspective Presenter: Bing Zhang, Nanjing University Shadow Banking and Economic Transition in China Presenter: Guan Gong, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics The Predicting Power of User-Cost Spread for Chinese Economics Recession Presenter: Biyan Tang, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth

E6: Risk Chair: Lin Wang, China Securities Regulatory Commission

Wescoe 4023

Does Golden Parachute Mitigate Stock Price Cash Risk? Evidence from Listed Firms in China Presenter: Xian Ye, Jinan University Audit Committee, Insurer’s Characteristics and Default Risk: Evidence from U.S. Property-Liability Insurers Presenter: Qiongqi Xiao, Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences Does “Irrationality” Increase Inconsistencies Between Subjective and Objective Risk Tolerance? Presenter: Lin Wang, China Securities Regulatory Commission

E7: Insurance Chair: Wuyang Hu, Ohio State University

Wescoe 4025

Measurement and Rationalization of Grain Crop Insurance Premium Rate—Based on evidences from 10 counties and districts in Heilongjiang Province Presenter: Dan Li, Northeast Agricultural University Asymmetric Impacts of Dynamic Rare Disaster Risk on the Stock Market: A Century of Evidence Presenter: Limin He, Jinan University Pareto Improvement on Chinese Crop Insurance Design Presenter: Wuyang Hu, Ohio State University

E8: Chinese Economy Chair: Ding Lu, Shanghai Tech University

Wescoe 4033

Nonlinear Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on Credit Scale: Evidence from China Presenter: Juan Meng, Jinan University Evolution of the Hog Market Integration in China: An Empirical Analysis Presenter: Biao Ma, Renmin University of China Gender Inequality and Trade Shock: Evidence from Chinese Import Competition Presenter: Chan Yu, University of Texas at Austin

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E9: Public Economics Chair: Ziqi Xie, Tulane University

Wescoe 4034

Research on the Influence and Mechanism of Government Fiscal Policy on Graded Diagnosis and Treatment System Presenter: Gang Li, Huazhong University of Science and Technology How Does Public Education Spending Affect Household Education Spending in China? Presenter: Yaxiang Song, University of Kentucky How Did Dividend Tax Reforms Affect the Stock Market? Evidence from China Presenter: Ziqi Xie, Tulane University

Sunday, April 7, 2019 (13:30-14:45)

1:30-2:45 Round-Table Forum

Chair: Dr. Makram El-Shagi, Henan University Wescoe 3139

Panelists: Dr. William Barnett, Dr. Marcelle Chauvet, Dr. Cheng Hsiao, Dr. Hongbin Li, Dr. Christopher Otrok, Dr. Wing Woo, Dr. Guofu Zhou

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LIST OF PARTICIPANTS (Registered by March 31) Name Affiliciation Sessions

Ahmed, Fawad Wuhan University of Technology A2

Barnett, Bill University of Kansas K2

Bhutta, Umair Saeed Wuhan University of Technology A2

Cai, Zongwu University of Kansas K1

Cao, Yu University of Southern California A1

Chauvel, Marcelle University of California at Riverside D2, E5

Chen, Cheng Shanghai University of Finance and Economics A4

Chen, Haiqiang Xiamen University B5

Chen, Pixiong University of Kansas

Chen, Xiaohong Yale University K5

Chen, Yongjun Renmin Uniiversity Of China A2

Chen, Zhou University of Georgia B7

Cheng, Shiyu University of Kentucky A7

Ding, Xiaozhou University of Kentucky A10

Doh, Taeyoung Kansas City Fed B2

El-Shagi, Makram Henan University D6

Fan, Rui Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute B5

Fang, Jing Chongqing University A7

Fang, Ying Xiamen University B5, K5 Faraz, Naveed Ahmad Wuhan University of Technology C3

Feng, Qidi Jinan University C1

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Gao, Jiaqi Shaanxi Normal University A10

Geng, Huayan SUNY Binghamton University A6

Gong, Guan Shanghai University of Finance and Economics E5

Guo, Ye Xiamen University B8

Han, Qing University of Kansas A7, B1

Han, Xiao Purdue University A8

Hashmi, Shabir Jinan University A8

Hausman, Jerry MIT K1

He, Kun University of Kansas

He, Limin Jinan University E7

He, Linjie University of Kansas

Hou, Jack California State University at Long Beach C3

Hsiao, Cheng University of Southern California K4

Hu, Wuyang Ohio State University E7

Huang, Bin Renmin University of China E4

Huang, Weihuan University of Kansas D1

Huang, Weihuang Shandong University

Huang, Zhilin Huaqiao University C5

Iwata, Shigeru University of Kansas B2

Jin, Yizhou Harvard University D5

Kaplan, David University of Missouri A6

Keating, John University of Kansas B3

Keinsley, Andrew Weber State University B2

Kutan, Ali Southern Illinois University

Li, Dan Northeast Agricultural University E7

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Li, Gang Huazhong University of Science and Technology E9

Li, Hongbin Stanford University D3

Li, Junqing Nankai University C7

Liao, Jingwen Kansas State University A5

Lin, Ming Xiamen University C9

Lin, Zhengyan Zhejiang University D1

Lio, San United States International University A3

Liu, Fang Yunan Normal University A3

Liu, Junyi Soka University of America A3

Liu, Kaifeng Nankai University C7

Liu, Xin University of Missouri C9

Liu, Xiyuan University of Kansas C9

Liu, Xuan East Carolina University B4

Liu, Yijiao Stony Brook University A4

Liu, Ying Shandong University A9

Liu, Yue Central University of Finance and Economics A8

Liu, Zixin University of Missouri - Columbia C4

Lu, Ding Shanghai Tech University E8 Lugovskyy, Josephine University of Kansas

Luo, Zijun Sam Houston State University A4

Ma, Biao Renmin University of China E8

Jin, Man Oakland University A6

Ma, Jun Northeastern University K3, B1

Meng, juan Jinan University

Mo, Bin Jinan University D6

27

Mughal, Muhammad Central China Normal University C3

Naz, Madeeha University of International Business and Economics A1

Nguyen, Van University of Kansas

Ni, Jinlan University of Nebaska at Omaha B6

Ni, Shawn University of Missouri at Columbia A1

Nian, Tingting University of California at Irvine B6

Nie, He Jinan University C2

Nie, Jun Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City B3, C2

Noh, Sanha University of Missouri C2

Otrok, Christopher University of Missouri at Columbia D2

Qian, Lianfen Florida Atlantic University C1

Qu, Guangjun Birmingham Southern College C5

Ren, Weiwei Yunnan Normal University E1

Sabo, Martin University of Colorado at Denver D4

Shan, Rongzi University at Albany, SUNY C2

Shang, Shengwu University of Nebraska at Lincoln E3

Shen, Leilei Kansas State University C4

Shen, Zeyan University of Kansas

Shi, Rong University of Kansas

Smith, Andrew Kansas City Fed B3

Song, Yaxiang University of Kentucky E9

Stanislavova, Melina University of Kansas

Sun, Chen University of Kansas B4

Sun, Yuzheng Amazon B6

Tang, Biyan University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth E5

28

Tang, Sarah Suffolk University C8

Tang, Shengfang University of Kansas

Tang, Shengfang University of Kansas

Vu, Hoa University of Kansas

Wang, Cong Jinan University B1

Wang, Lin China Securities Regulatory Commission E6

Wang, Qun Dalian University of Technology E2

Wang, Qunyong Nankai University B8

Wang, Rui University of Kansas

Wang, Tingsi University of Tennessee A9

Wang, Wenting Iowa State University A5

Wang, Will Microsoft D5

Wang, Xiaohan Stony Brook University C7

Wang, Xue Southwestern University of Finance and Economics C1

Wang, Yan Stony Brook University C5

Wen, Qiang Xiamen University

Woo, Wing University of California at Davis B7, K4

Wu, Wuqing Renmin University of China A3, B8

Wu, Yanhua University of Kansas

Xia, Liying Shanghai University of Finance and Economics C6

Xiao, Qiongqi Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences E6

Xie, Ziqi Tulane University E9

Xu, Huiwen University of Rochester E2

Xue, Hao Shaanxi Normal University E2

Yang, Jie Yunnan Normal University C4

29

Yang, Xi University of North Texas E1

Yang, Xiaoming University of Nebraska at Omaha D4

Yang, Yonghua Yunnan Normal University C6

Ye, Xian Jinan University E6

Yin, Xunzhao University of Kansas

Yin, Xunzhao University of Kansas

Yip, Chi Man University of Calgary A5

Yu, Chan University of Texas at Austin E8

Yu, Wenjing Zhejiang University E4

Zang, Lijun Zhejiang University E1

Zax, Jeffrey University of Colorado Boulder D3

Zeng, Fanqing Jinan University C8

Zeng, Yong University of Missouri at Kansas City A6, D1

Zhan, Mingfeng University of Kansas

Zhang, Bing Nanjing University E5

Zhang, Hong Changsha University of Science and Technology A9

Zhang, Jianbo University of Kansas K2

Zhang, Junfu Clark University B7

Zhang, Xuanyue Chongqing University E4

Zhao, Ran Beijing Normal University C8

Zhao, Shunan Centre College of Kentucky E3

Zhao, Yue Renmin University of China

Zhou, Guofu Washington University K3

Zhou, Qiankun Louisiana State University E3

Zou, Jian University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign A10

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LOGISTS AND MAP The campus WiFi is KUGUEST and shuttle schedules from the hotel to the campus will be provided later. Map (North District):

near Lawrence — Douglas

1 of 1

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ADVERTISEMNTS Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC)

The FEC is an economics journal edited at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (SUFE) and published by Higher Education Press of China. Issued quarterly and distributed worldwide, the journal is available both online and in hard-copy. The journal welcomes submissions of theoretical and empirical papers from all fields of economics, particularly those with an emphasis on the Chinese economy and other emerging, developing or transition economies. Editor: Guoqiang Tian Texas A&M University; SUFE Executive Editor: Zhiqi Chen Carleton University Co-Editors: Chunrong Ai University of Florida Kevin X. D. Huang Vanderbilt University Neng Wang Columbia University Quan Wen University of Washington

Selected Papers Published in 2018 and 2019

Tackle China’s Economic Complexities by Deepening Reform and Opening-up: Macroeconomic Outlook, Policy Simulations, and Reform Implementation — A Summary of the Annual SUFE Macroeconomic Report (2018-2019)……………...Kevin X. D. Huang, Guoqiang Tian, Yuqin Wang

China’s Growth Deceleration: Causes and Future Growth Prospect…………………..Justin Yifu Lin

Deceleration of China’s Economic Growth: Causes and Countermeasures………......Guoqiang Tian

Growth and Cycles in China’s Unbalanced Development: Resource Misallocation, Debt Overhang, Economic Inequality, and the Importance of Structural Reforms………………....Kevin X.D. Huang

China’s Investments in Skills……………………………………James J. Heckman, Shuaizhang Feng

Rethinking Globalization in the Trump Era: US-China Relations Relations……….Joseph E. Stiglitz

Local Import Competition in a Lumpy Country...................................................... Alan V. Deardorff

Offshoring and Reshoring: The Roles of Incomplete Contracts and Relative Bargaining Power………………………………………………………………….Ngo Van Long, Maxwell Tuuli

Money, Finance and Commerce in Chinese History: An Introduction with Reference to the Special Issue……………………………………………………………………………..Debin Ma, Cong Liu

Online Submission: http://mc.manuscriptcentral.com/fec

Websites: http://journal.hep.com.cn/fec; https://econpapers.repec.org/article/fecjournl

Full-Text Available: ProQuest, EBSCO-BSU, Gale