China’s PopulationJust what kind of problem is it?

Tim OakesUniversity of Colorado, Boulder

A Tale of Two Women

Liu Yang

Feng Jianmei

What is population?

What is population?

• Measurement, calculation, boundary

What is population?

• Measurement, calculation, boundary• Mobility makes counting difficult– Household registration (hukou)

What is population?

• Measurement, calculation, boundary• Mobility makes counting difficult– Household registration (hukou)

• Why should population be the state’s business at all?

Population as a Problem

• Malthus

Population as a Problem

• Marx

Population as a Problem

• Eugenics• Post WWII mainstream development and

modernization– Measurement and calculation– Mortality– Fertility

Population as a Problem

Population policy in China

• A long tradition of Malthusian thinking– 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’

Population policy in China

• A long tradition of Malthusian thinking– 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’

• Mao

“every mouth comes witha pair of hands”

Population policy in China

• A long tradition of Malthusian thinking– 人口 literally ‘person’ + ‘mouth’

• Mao• Wan Xi Shao 晚 细 少

The single-child family policy

• Why needed?

The single-child family policy

• Why needed?– 3 reasons• Demographic• Socio-economic• Political

The single-child family policy

• Why needed?– 3 reasons• Demographic• Socio-economic• Political

• Not a single policy

The single-child family policy

• The (multi)policy today– Three categories of fertility policy (Wang Feng)• Strict control regions

– Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangsu (35% of China’s total population)

The single-child family policy

• The (multi)policy today– Three categories of fertility policy (Wang Feng)• Strict control regions

– Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangsu (35% of China’s total population)

• ‘1.5 children policy’ regions– Couples whose first child is a girl are allowed a second birth

(54% of China’s total population)

• Regions allowing a second or third birth– Mostly minority areas (11% of China’s total population)

‘Effective’ national rate of 1.47Single-child policy applies to about 63% of China’s population

The single-child family policy

• Consequences of the policy– Aging population• China has become old before it became rich• Number of elderly in China

– 67.9 million in 2000– 93.3 million in 2015– 128.2 million in 2025– 229.1 million in 2050

The single-child family policy

• Consequences of the policy– Aging population

The single-child family policy

• Consequences of the policy– Aging population– Lopsided sex ratio• By 2020 24 million ‘bare branches’

– Collapse of reliable birth reporting system

Population as a symbol of modernity

• Mao era – a counter-modernity• Deng era reforms – population is a ‘chronic

illness’• 1990s – quality population• 2000s – a ‘new fertility culture’