china’s “good neighbor” policy in southeast asia: steven f. jackson, ph.d. department of...

China’s “Good Neighbor” Policy in Southeast Asia: China’s “Good Neighbor” Policy in Southeast Asia:

Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D. Department of Political Science Indiana University of Pennsylvania

NEH/ASDP 2011 “Dynamics of Cultural Unity and Diversity in Southeast Asia”

oror“How to Be a Regional Hegemon “How to Be a Regional Hegemon

and Still Be Liked”and Still Be Liked”

Copyright © 2011 Steven F. Jackson, Ph.D.2

Southeast Asia: ContextSoutheast Asia: Context


The ParadoxThe Paradox

International Relations Theory Posits that Power Shifts Can Lead to Tensions, Counter-Balancing, Conflict; Overwhelming Power Becomes a HegemonChina’s Power vis-à-vis Southeast Asia Since 1980 Has Shifted DramaticallyHowever, China’s Relations with Southeast Asia Today Are Far Better than in Previous DecadesAnswer is Partially the Result of a “Good Neighbor Policy”


Evolution of PolicyEvolution of Policy

Phase 1: Inaction

Phase 2: Over-Reaction

Phase 3: Moderated Action:“Good Neighbor”


Indicators of China’s Regional DominanceIndicators of China’s Regional Dominance

PopulationMilitaryEconomicOpinion


Southeast Asia: China Population, 1960-2009

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

million

per

sons

China

Southeast Asia


Southeast Asian Military Expenditures, 1988-2010

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

milio

n 2

009

US$

Brunei

Cambodia

Indonesia

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Viet Nam

Source: SIPRI


East Asian Military Expenditures, 1988-2010

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

million

200

9 U

S$

Brunei

Cambodia

China, P. R.

Indonesia

Japan

Laos

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Thailand

Viet Nam


Southeast Asia: Military Personnel, 2009

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Cambo

dia

Indo

nesia

Mala

ysia

Mya

nmar

Philipp

ines

Singa

pore

Thail

and

Vietna

m

per

sons


Southeast Asia: Military Personnel, 2009

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

Cambo

dia

China

Indo

nesia

Mala

ysia

Mya

nmar

Philipp

ines

Singa

pore

Thail

and

Vietna

m

per

sons


Southeast Asia: China Military Spending Ratio, 1989-2010

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

ASEA

N: C

hin

a M

ilitar

y Exp

enditure

s


Southeast: China GDP Ratio, 1980-2009

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Rat

io o

f G

DP a

t con

stan

t 200

0 U

S$


Southeast Asia, China: International Reserves, 1980-2009

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

billion

US$

equiv

., in

cl. g

old


Southeast Asia: China Financial Reserves Ratio, 1980-2009

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

ratio

of in

tern

atio

nal

res

erve

s, in

cl. g

old


Country Imports Exports

Brunei 3 5

Cambodia 3 10

Indonesia 1 2

Laos 2 2

Malaysia 2 1

Myanmar 1 3

Philippines 2 1

Singapore 3 2

Thailand 2 1

Vietnam 1 3

China’s Rank as Trade Partner, Southeast Asia 2010


China: Trade with Southeast Asia, 1980-2010

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal i

mpor

ts, e

xpor

ts

% ASEAN exports

% ASEAN imports

Source: IMF DOTS, 2009, 2011


National AveragesNational Averages

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

USA

China

Japan

Vietnam

Thailand

Singapore

Philippines

Indonesia

Source: East Asia Barometer, 2005-2006


Evolution of PolicyEvolution of Policy

Phase 1: Inaction

Phase 2: Over-Reaction

Phase 3: Moderated Action:“Good Neighbor”


The Late Qing DynastyThe Late Qing Dynasty

Pogroms of Chinese Overseas IgnoredChina Saw overseas Chinese as “…outcasts who had not hesitated to abandon their homeland for the sake of commerce.” Most of Southeast Asia Under European Control

清清代代


Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949-79Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949-79

China Became Communist in 1949, SE Asia IndependentNorth Korea Invaded S. Korea 1950Vietnam War Created a Communist NorthUSA Intervention, SEATO


Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949-79

Overseas Chinese Communities Often Seen as “Fifth Columnists”Malayan EmergencyIndonesia 9/65China Highly Critical of Moves Against Ethnic Chinese by Southeast Asian governments


Counter-Action: ASEANCounter-Action: ASEAN

Formed 1967Initially Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, SingaporeSubstantial Anti-Communist Insurgency in FocusKey Effort to Create a Common Front vis-à-vis External PowersEventually Admitted Communist/Socialist States


Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949-79Over-Action: China-SE Asia Relations, 1949-79

Data Show Chinese Higher Chinese Tendency to Use Force 1949-69Soviet Involvement in Southeast AsiaVietnamese Invasion of Pol Pot Regime in Cambodia, 12/78; Chinese Retaliatory Invasion of Northern Vietnam 2/79Expulsion of Ethnic Chinese from VietnamPolarization of Sino-Southeast Asian Relations


Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy”Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy”

Chinese Diplomatic Situation Spring 1989 Isolation After Tiananmen 6/4/89Normalization of Relations with USSR

Li Peng tour of Southeast Asia 1990Secret Sino-Vietnamese Negotiations in Chengdu 1990Vo Van Kiet and Party leader Do Muoi Visiting Beijing 11/91


Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy”Moderating Action: The “Good Neighbor Policy”

Chinese Approached Suharto During Showa Emperor’s Funeral early 1989, AcceptedNegotiations Throughout 1989August 1990 Li Peng Visit to Jakarta to Normalize RelationsSingapore Last Normalization as per Lee Kwan Yew Pledge


South China SeaSouth China Sea

Conflicting Claims to Islands and ReefsChina/Taiwan, Vietnam: AllMalaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Brunei: Portions

At Issue, Hydrocarbon Potential, Sea LanesClashes 1974, 1988, 1995Subsequent Negotiation of Code of Conduct 2002 Through ASEAN


ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

Est. 1993/94 from PMCExplicitly Security OrganizationMembers: Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Canada, China, Democratic Peoples' Republic of Korea, European Union, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Mongolia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor Leste, United States, and Viet Nam.


ASEAN +3/ APT/ 10+3ASEAN +3/ APT/ 10+3

Est. 1997 in response to financial crisis, “Chiang Mai Initiative”Formalized 1999Includes ASEAN, China, South Korea, Japan“China endorses the role of ASEAN Plus Three as the main channel for the advancement of East Asian cooperation.”


ChinaMyanmar

Thailand

CambodiaLaos Vietnam

Malaysia

Singapore Indonesia

Philippines

ASEAN

S.Korea Japan

“+3”

USA


Competitive InstitutionsCompetitive Institutions

Formed 1989 by Australian Proposal21 members Includes USA, Russia, Mexico, Peru, TaiwanToo Diffuse to be Real CompetitionNo Exclusion; Can Be Members of BothComing to Honolulu in November!


ConclusionConclusion

Resolution of the Paradox:Decline of Ideology of CommunismResolution of Status of Overseas ChineseCollapse of External ActorBalancing Against Intentions More than CapabilitiesTriumph of Diplomacy, and of Southeast Asian Initiative


ASEAN-China Free Trade AreaASEAN-China Free Trade Area

Initial Agreement Signed 2002, launched 2003Further Implementation in 2010Does not include Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam


Myanmar: Export Partners, 1980-2010Myanmar: Export Partners, 1980-2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China

% India

% Thailand



Myanmar: Import Partners, 1980-2010Myanmar: Import Partners, 1980-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China

% India

% Thailand



Myanmar: Export Partners, 2010Myanmar: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

2719.78

2010

Thailand India China, P.R.: Mainland Japan Malay sia Korea, Republic of Bangladesh Vietnam Singapore Cote d'Iv oire


Myanmar: Import Partners, 2010Myanmar: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

3500.00

4000.00

4500.00

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland Thailand Singapore Korea, Republic of Indonesia Malay sia Japan India Taiwan Prov ince of China Australia


Indonesia: Major Import Partners, 1980-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal i

mpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Indonesia: Major Export Partners, 1980-2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal e

xpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Indonesia: Export Partners, 2010Indonesia: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

27070.90

2010

Japan China, P.R.: Mainland United States Singapore Korea, Republic of India Malay sia Taiwan Prov ince of China Thailand Australia


Indonesia: Import Partners, 2010Indonesia: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland Singapore Japan United States Malay sia Korea, Republic of Thailand Saudi Arabia Australia India


Laos: Major Export Partners, 1981-2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

% to

tal e

xpor

ts % Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China

% Thailand



Laos: Major Import Partners, 1981-2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

% to

tal e

xpor

ts % Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China

% Thailand



Laos: Export Partners, 2010Laos: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

724.16

2010

Thailand China, P.R.: Mainland Vietnam United Kingdom United States Germany Japan Korea, Republic of India Belgium


Laos: Import Partners, 2010Laos: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

2010

Thailand China, P.R.: Mainland Vietnam Korea, Republic of Japan China, P.R.: Hong Kong Singapore Australia India Germany


Philippines: Major Import Partners, 1999-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% to

tal i

mpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Philippines: Major Export Partners, 1980-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal e

xpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Philippines: Export Partners, 2010Philippines: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

11486.10

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland United States Singapore Japan China, P.R.: Hong Kong Germany Korea, Republic of Netherlands Thailand Taiwan Prov ince of China


Philippines: Import Partners, 2010Philippines: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

2000.00

4000.00

6000.00

8000.00

10000.00

12000.00

2010

Japan China, P.R.: Mainland United States Singapore Taiwan Prov ince of China Thailand Korea, Republic of Indonesia Saudi Arabia Malay sia


Malaysia: Major Export Partners, 1980-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal e

xpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Malaysia: Major Import Partners, 1980-2010

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal i

mpor

ts

% Japan

% Singapore

% USA

% China



Malaysia: Export Partners, 2010Malaysia: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

48085.48

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland Singapore United States Japan China, P.R.: Hong Kong Thailand Australia Indonesia Korea, Republic of Netherlands


Malaysia: Import Partners, 2010Malaysia: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

35000.00

40000.00

45000.00

50000.00

2010

Singapore China, P.R.: Mainland Japan United States Thailand Indonesia Korea, Republic of Taiwan Prov ince of China Germany Australia


China: Major S.E. Asian Export Partners, 1980-2010

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal e

xpor

ts

% Singapore

% Indonesia

% Malaysia

% Philippines

% Thailand

% Vietnam



China: Major S.E. Asian Import Partners, 1980-2010

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

% to

tal i

mpor

ts % Singapore

% Indonesia

% Malaysia

% Philippines

% Thailand



China: Export Partners 2010China: Export Partners 2010

0.00

297862.78

2010

United States China, P.R.: Hong Kong Japan Korea, Republic of Germany Netherlands India United Kingdom Singapore Italy


China: Import Partners, 2010China: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

20000.00

40000.00

60000.00

80000.00

100000.00

120000.00

140000.00

160000.00

180000.00

200000.00

2010

Japan Korea, Republic of Taiwan Prov ince of China United States Germany Australia Malay sia Brazil Thailand Saudi Arabia


Japan: Export Partners, 2010Japan: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

157107.43

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland United States Korea, Republic of Taiwan Prov ince of China China, P.R.: Hong Kong Thailand Singapore Germany Malay sia Netherlands


Japan: Import Partners, 2010Japan: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

20000.00

40000.00

60000.00

80000.00

100000.00

120000.00

140000.00

160000.00

180000.00

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland United States Australia Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Korea, Republic of Indonesia Taiwan Prov ince of China Malay sia Qatar


Singapore: Export Partners, 2010Singapore: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

44008.79

2010

Malay sia China, P.R.: Hong Kong China, P.R.: Mainland Indonesia United States Japan Korea, Republic of India Taiwan Prov ince of China Thailand


Singapore: Import Partners, 2010Singapore: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

35000.00

40000.00

2010

Malay sia United States China, P.R.: Mainland Japan Taiwan Prov ince of China Korea, Republic of Indonesia Saudi Arabia Thailand India


Thailand: Export Partners, 2010Thailand: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

22552.79

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland Japan United States China, P.R.: Hong Kong Malay sia Australia Singapore Indonesia Vietnam Philippines


Thailand: Import Partners, 2010Thailand: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

35000.00

40000.00

45000.00

2010

Japan China, P.R.: Mainland United States Malay sia United Arab Emirates Korea, Republic of Taiwan Prov ince of China Singapore Australia Indonesia


Vietnam: Export Partners, 2010Vietnam: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

15165.72

2010

United States Japan China, P.R.: Mainland Germany Australia Korea, Republic of Switzerland Malay sia Philippines China, P.R.: Hong Kong


Vietnam: Import Partners, 2010Vietnam: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

5000.00

10000.00

15000.00

20000.00

25000.00

30000.00

2010

China, P.R.: Mainland Japan Korea, Republic of Taiwan Prov ince of China Singapore Thailand China, P.R.: Hong Kong United States Malay sia India


Cambodia: Export Partners, 2010Cambodia: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

2292.82

2010

United States Canada United Kingdom Germany Thailand Japan Vietnam Singapore Spain China, P.R.: Mainland


Cambodia: Import Partners, 2010Cambodia: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

3000.00

2010

Thailand Singapore China, P.R.: Mainland China, P.R.: Hong Kong Vietnam Taiwan Prov ince of China Korea, Republic of Indonesia Japan United States


Brunei: Export Partners, 2010Brunei: Export Partners, 2010

0.00

3919.07

2010

Japan Korea, Republic of Australia Indonesia China, P.R.: Mainland India New Zealand Singapore Thailand Malay sia


Brunei: Import Partners, 2010Brunei: Import Partners, 2010

0.00

200.00

400.00

600.00

800.00

1000.00

1200.00

2010

Singapore Malay sia China, P.R.: Mainland United Kingdom Japan Thailand United States Indonesia Korea, Republic of Germany


Soft PowerSoft Power

Joseph Nye, 1990 Foreign Policy Article

软实力Confucius Institutes, Chinese Language Instruction, Youth Volunteers, Foreign Aid, Trade, InvestmentBut Does it Work?


Confucius InstitutesConfucius Institutes

30 in Southeast Asia:Indonesia: 7Singapore: 2Myanmar: 2Malaysia: 2Philippines: 3Thailand: 12Cambodia: 1Laos: 1


Latin America as a Percentage of US Total Trade, 1870-1970

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1870

1873

1876

1879

1882

1885

1888

1891

1894

1897

1900

1903

1906

1909

1912

1915

1918

1921

1924

1927

1930

1933

1936

1939

1942

1945

1948

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

Imports

Exports

Total Trade

china’s “good neighbor” policy in southeast asia: steven f. jackson, ph.d. department of...

Documents