china_nickel_2008_-_28_may_2008
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Bahasan nikel oleh salah satu perusahaan tambang multinasionalTRANSCRIPT
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Mike Jolley President Director PT Rio Tinto Indonesia
China Nickel 2008 28th May 2008, Shanghai
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1This presentation has been prepared by Rio Tinto plc and Rio Tinto Limited (Rio Tinto) and comprises the slides for a presentation concerning Rio Tinto. By reviewing/attending this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions.Forward looking statementsThis presentation includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Security Exchange Act, as amended. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this presentation, including, without limitation, those regarding Rio Tintos financial position, business strategy, plans and objectives of management for future operations (including development plans and objectives relating to Rio Tintos products, production forecasts and reserve and resource positions), are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Rio Tinto, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding Rio Tintos present and future business strategies and the environment in which Rio Tinto will operate in the future. Among the important factors that could cause Rio Tintos actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements include, among others, levels of actual production during any period, levels of demand and market prices, the ability to produce and transport products profitably, the impact of foreign currency exchange rates on market prices and operating costs, operational problems, political uncertainty and economic conditions in relevant areas of the world, the actions of competitors, activities by governmental authorities such as changes in taxation or regulation and such other risk factors identified in Rio Tinto's most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") or Form 6-Ks furnished to the SEC. Forward-looking statements should, therefore, be construed in light of such risk factors and undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this presentation. Rio Tinto expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking (except as required by applicable law, the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the Takeover Code), the UK Listing Rules, the Disclosure and Transparency Rules of the Financial Services Authority and the Listing Rules of the Australian Securities Exchange) to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement contained herein to reflect any change in Rio Tintos expectations with regard thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statement is based.Nothing in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that future earnings per share of Rio Tinto plc or Rio Tinto Limited will necessarily match or exceed its historical published earnings per share.
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2Iron Ore
Energy Industrial Minerals
Aluminium Copper
Diamonds
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3
Earnings by commodity (2007)
1.1 1.31.5 1.7 1.5 1.4
2.3
5.0
7.34 7.44
0
2
4
6
98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
Underlying earnings*
US$bn
* 1998 to 2003 data are adjusted earnings under UKGAAP. From 2004, data are underlying earnings under IFRS.
Source: Rio Tinto
Copper 43%
Energy 6%
Aluminium 13%
Diamonds & Industrial
Minerals 6%
Iron Ore 32%
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4
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Project expertise Pilbara, Western Australia iron ore Yarwun, Queensland alumina refinery Hail Creek, Queensland coal mine
Ability to strike deals Rio Tinto has an extensive history of creative deal-making
Alcan - aluminium Oyu Tolgoi, Mongolia copper Simandou, Guinea, West Africa iron ore
Operational synergies Nickel mining has synergies with Rio Tintos existing
operations and expertise
Source:Rio Tinto
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5CAGR%
5.0
2.6
2005-25forecast
1975-05actual
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
1975
54
2005
125
2025
Rest of worldIndia
ChinaSouth AmericaAsia Pacific developedEurope
North America
4.3%
3.5%6.5
2.7
CAGR
Source: World Bank for 1975 and 2005 data; Global Insight for growth estimates to 2025; Rio Tinto Economics
World GDP2000 terms, PPP basis, USD Trillions
DevelopingDeveloped
"#"$%&
-
60%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,0000
1
2
3
4
5
6
GDP per capita(in 2000 US$)
Expenditure per capitaUS$ (2007 terms)
2007 PopulationDistribution
Average income per capita
2007 2022
Nickel
Note: Expenditure profile is based on Rio Tinto estimates of global income and consumption relationships and average real terms prices between 1990-2006.
Source: Global Insight for population distribution: Rio Tinto estimates for nickel expenditure profiles.
'(
-
7'()*+,
&
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Rio TintoRio TintoBrook Hunt Base
case
Upside
Nickel demand under various scenariosKtpa CAGR, Percent
2007-15 2015-256.2
5.1
6.1
4.3
Source: Global Insight: Rio Tinto; Brook Hunt
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8 Delays in bringing new supply online are likely, due to: Increased project costs and
equipment shortages Increased labour and local
resident disputes.
Laterite nickel is particularly affected because production is very large scale, with a large environmental footprint, and high capital requirements including co-located processing facilities
Nickel pig iron is small-scale, very high cost marginal production. Ni pig iron production will likely decline as supply increases from conventional sources to meet excess demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
- &
Source: Brook Hunt, Rio Tinto analysis
Base case refined output
Projects inbase caseDemand
Nickel supply and demand balance, Ktpa Nickel pig iron
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9&&
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Current assets
Eagle Project high grade ore body with exceptional value per ton of ore and exiting upside prospects
Sulawesi Project large scale, high grade laterite opportunity one of the largest undeveloped nickel deposits
Source: Rio Tinto
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10
Lakeview
#(
Source: Rio Tinto
Active explorationUnder reviewNo present interest
Advanced ProjectProgramme
Mid Continent
Brazil
Bushveld
Namibia
Target Testing
B13 Nickel
Project stageProject of Merit
Exploration Results55 historical drill holes outline an
initial mineralisation zone, drilling about to commence
Project stageOrder of Magnitude
Exploration Results42 drill holes outline an
initial mineralised zone
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Initial capex for base case ($billion) 0.3
/&&&
**
05
10152025
11 12 13 14 15 16
First production expected
Base case annual production (ktpa)
Production profile
Very high grade ore deposit Major optionality Strategic location
Key statistics (attributable basis)Rio Tinto share (%) 100
2010
16
Overview
2010
k
t
p
a
Worlds undeveloped nickel resourcesNi equiv. grade (%)
Ore grade
Contained Ni equivMTonnes
Nickel equivalent calculated using long term analyst consensus metal prices 14 May 2008 US$6.32/lb Ni, US$1.55/lb Cu, US$9.4/lb Co,Source: 1. Rio Tinto Annual Report 2007, Eagle has Probable Ore Reserves of 3.2Mtonnes @ 3.89% Ni 2. Competitor projects Brook
Hunt.
0
1
2
3
4
5
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Competitors2
Note: bubble size reflects total potential annual capacity
Eagle1
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12
'.
-
13
0
&'%!
In 1999 Approval in Principle given to negotiate a Contract of Work.
In 2000, laterite nickel deposit discovered straddling the border of the Central and South East Sulawesi Provinces of Indonesia.
Currently ranks as one of the largest known undeveloped laterite nickel deposits in the world.
Progress on the negotiation stalled by discussion over the draft mining law. Interim Mechanism decree issued by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources in 2004.
Negotiations with the Government to persist with the CoW stance since early 2005.
Discussions with the regional governments on relevant clauses of the CoW have commenced.
When this process is complete the CoW will be submitted to the Indonesian parliament for review.
The Central Government committed to complete negotiation of the CoW before the new mining law is introduced.
Source: Rio Tinto
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Total Resource: 162Mt @ 1.62% Ni and 0.08% Co
Sulawesi Nickel Inferred Resource1
1!#
Source: Rio Tinto, 1: Rio Tinto Sulawesi Nickel Resource press release, 28 May 2008. To date the Sulawesi project does not have any defined Ore Reserves, accordingly, the projected levels of production shown in the Base Case and Expansion profiles are conceptual in nature and subject to identification of sufficient Ore Reserves to support these production levels.
Key statistics (attributable basis)Rio Tinto share (%) 100
Expansion case annual production (ktpa) 39
First production expected 2015Base case annual production (ktpa) 46
Tonnes, Thousands
020406080
100
Overview
ExpansionBase case
Overview
Potential Production profile
Large scale, low cost, high grade laterite opportunity
One of the worlds largest undeveloped nickel opportunities, with potential further regional deposits of a similar size
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15
0
1
2
3
4
5
- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
Contained Ni Equiv. (ktonnes)
N
i
E
q
u
i
v
.
G
r
a
d
e
(
%
)
Competitors3
RT Projects
SulawesiNickel2
Note: bubble size reflects total potential annual capacity
Eagle1
Nickel equivalent calculated using long term analyst consensus metal prices 14 May 2008 US$6.32/lb Ni, US$1.55/lb Cu, US$9.4/lb Co,Source: 1. Rio Tinto Annual Report 2007, 2. Rio Tinto Sulawesi Nickel Resource press release, 28 May 2008, There are currently no Reserves and /
or Measured / Indicated Resources for Sulawesi 3. Competitor projects Brook Hunt.
Worlds Undeveloped Nickel Resources
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16
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Initial feasibility study work will focus on exploration, environmental and community base line studies.
Rio Tinto is already active in the provinces. $500,000 has been committed to community development work, the first phase of which was $250,000 for emergency relief and the relocation of a village that was destroyed in floods that ravaged the Central Sulawesi Province in 2007.
Overview Rio Tinto is a world leader in sustainable development.
Source: Rio Tinto
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2
Kaltim Prima Coal
Sulawesi
Grasberg
Kelian
Source: Rio Tinto
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18
(
Since Reformasi, the fall of Soeharto, in 1998, Indonesia has gone through much change.
It has held two free elections, in 1999 and 2004, both with >90% turnout.
The unitary state of Indonesia is increasingly cohesive. It has a good record in controlling international terrorism, and calls for regional separatism are fading.
This period has not been without its turmoil, with 4 Presidents between 1998 and 2004.
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono unchallenged in the Presidency since 2004 and remains the most popular candidate ahead of the 2009 election.
Socially, Indonesia is now a moderate Moslem society with largely tolerant and pluralistic attitudes,
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19
e
Overview
R
e
a
l
G
D
P
G
r
o
w
t
h
1
9
9
2
2
0
0
8
Source: Global Insight, note: historical data edge is 2006 for GDP and FDI data
%
c
h
a
n
g
e
o
v
e
r
y
e
a
r
a
g
o 7.2 7.3 7.58.2 7.8
4.7
-13.1
0.8
5.43.6
4.5 4.8 5.05.7 5.5
6.3 6.1
-15
-10
-5
-
5
10
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
10% F
oreig
n Direct
Investm
ent:
inflow
Billion
s c
urre
nt US$
Asian recovery is clearly evident GDP profile is still building and displays upward momentum Growth is led by strong export growth and fixed capital investment Investors have regained confidence as can be seen in trend of growth in FDI
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20
&1&
**
Indonesia
USA
South Africa
Peru
Mexico
Brazil
Australia
Canada
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
60 70 80 90 100Note: Size of bubble represents spending (US$ 20M) US$
2 0 M
Source: Fraser Institute, MEG.
Mineral Potential Index (Prospectivity)
Policy Potential / Prospectivity
Low High
P
o
l
i
c
y
P
o
t
e
n
t
i
a
l
I
n
d
e
x
(
I
n
v
e
s
t
m
e
n
t
C
o
n
d
i
t
i
o
n
s
)
U
n
a
t
t
r
a
c
t
i
v
e
A
t
t
r
a
c
t
i
v
e
Prospectivity Macroeconomic growth
indicators suggest Indonesia is doing well
Mining industry is lagging Regional autonomy has
devolved power and authority to the regions
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21
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Existing Contracts of Work how will they be treated under the new law?
Disjunctive title does the new law provide security of tenure?
Regional autonomy does the new law clearly define the delineation of authority between central and regional governments?
Uncertainty as to whether the new mining law will unlock the potential of the mining industry in Indonesia.
Overview Development of the law and regulation a long period of
uncertainty ahead
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Rio Tinto - a world class miner with world class results
Rio Tinto continuing to add value across future projects
Rio Tinto has the capability and expertise to deliver
The nickel market fundamentals are strong
Rio Tinto is developing a strong portfolio of nickel assets
Sulawesi is a great asset
Rio Tinto is well positioned to deliver the Sulawesi project
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