china’s renewable energychina’s renewable …feed-in tariff for renewable energy power wind: 2...

China’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable EnergyChina’s Renewable Energy China’s Renewable Energy ––Current Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and FutureCurrent Situation and Future Current Situation and Future PerspectivePerspective

GAO Hu

Energy Research Institute (ERI) of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC)

China National Renewable Energy Centre (CNREC)

2015 J l B iji2015 July Beijing

1China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02

内容 Content

Policy FrameworkPolicy Framework

Current profileCurrent profile

Plan targetPlan target

Future perspectiveFuture perspective

2015/07/02 2China National Renewable Energy Centre

Supporting Policy for R bl E P iRenewable Energy Power in ChinaChina

2015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre 3

Feed-in tariff for RE Power

Wind Wind– Onshore :0.49-0.61 CNY/kWh– offshore: 0.75, 0.85CNY/kWh

Bi Bio-power– 0.75 CNY/kWh for agricultural

and forestry residual0 65CNY/kWh for MSW

0.020.02元元CNYkWhCNYkWh0.020.02 CNY/kWhCNY/kWh

0.020.02 CNY//kWhCNY//kWh

– 0.65CNY/kWh for MSW power

– 0.25 CNY/kWh subsidy for biogas power

0.020.02 CNY/kWhCNY/kWh

0.75CNY/kWh

biogas power0.85CNY/kWh

风电的区域固定电价Wind power Feed-in Tariff (declined since year 2015)p ( y )

4

Currency rate: 1 US$=6.2Chinese RMB

China National Renewable Energy Centre2015/07/02

Feed-in tariff for utility-scale PVy

Large –scale Solar PV– Regional FIT 0.9, 0.95,1.0 CNY/kWh

Distributed Solar PV– 0.42 CNR/kWh subsidy



Feed-in tariff for coal-fired power (Yuan/kWh) by province

0.5元/k h

0.350.40.45

元/kWh(RMB/kWh)

0.20.250.30.35

0.050.10.150.2

00.05

北京

天津

北北网

北南网

山西

山东

古西部

辽宁

吉林

黑龙江

古东部

上海

江苏

浙江

安徽

福建

河南

湖北

湖南

江西

四川

重庆

陕西

甘肃

宁夏

青海

广东

云南

贵州

广西

海南

Currency rate: 1 US$=6 2Chinese RMB

河北

河北

内蒙古黑

内蒙古



Feed-in tariff for Renewable Energy PowergyWind: 2 cents decreased from 2009PV: 10 cents decreased from 2011(selected regions)

1.2

1.4(RMB/kWh)

1.2

1.4(RMB/kWh)

0 4735

0.8

1

0 4735

0.8

1

0.4735

0 2

0.4

0.6 0.4735

0 2

0.4

0.6

0.27110

0.20.2711

0

0.2


Renewable Energy Surchargegy g

0.015

0 012

0.014

0.016 （元/kWh) 0.015

0 012

0.014

0.016 （元/kWh)(RMB/kWh)

0.0080 008

0.01

0.012

0.0080 008

0.01

0.012

0.0040.004

0.006

0.008

0.0040.004

0.006

0.008

0.0010.002

0

0.002 0.0010.002

0

0.002

2006 2007 2009 2011 2013（年）2006 2007 2009 2011 2013（年）


Mechanism to Fund RE Power in China

RE power surcharge

R bl0 015元/kWh Renewable Energy Fund

0.015元/kWh(2%~4% of residential level)

Earmarked fund


Profile of Renewable Energy P i ChiPower in China


Resource potentialp

Hydro: technical potential 660GW, economically viable 400GW

Wind: onshore technically viable 2580GW, offshore 510GW Solar: 2/3 of the land with sunshine hour over 2200. Best in

th ld f th t Chithe world for the western China. Biomass: Agro- and forestry residue resource over 400-500

million tce


million tce

Newly Added Power Capacity

12000

y p yTotal power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar Total power capacity 1358GW, hydro 301GW, thermal power 916GW, wind 96GW, solar 28GW (By end of year 2014)28GW (By end of year 2014)

10000

12000 单位：万千瓦10MW

897 1457 1600 1285 1406

2072 8000

光伏发电

风电WindSolar PV

4000

6000 风电

核电

火电

水电

Wind

NuclearCoal

Hydro

2000

水电Hydro

0

2009年 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年


Hydropowery pAchieve the target by year 2015Achieve the target by year 2015

120004 00 （亿千瓦时）（万千瓦） 120004 00 （亿千瓦时）（万千瓦）10MW

2 80

3.50

86418963

11000

10000

12000

3 00

3.50

4.00

发电装机(亿kW)发电量(亿kWh)

（亿千瓦时）（万千瓦）

2 80

3.50

86418963

11000

10000

12000

3 00

3.50

4.00

发电装机(亿kW)发电量(亿kWh)

（亿千瓦时）（万千瓦）10MWCapacity (100GW)Electricity (0.1TWh)

1.97 1.99 2.12

2.49 2.58 2.80

2.60

56555717

67596520

6000

8000

2 00

2.50

3.00

1.97 1.99 2.12

2.49 2.58 2.80

2.60

56555717

67596520

6000

8000

2 00

2.50

3.00

1.17 1.29 1.45

1.72 1.97

396441674867

5655

4000

6000

1.50

2.00

1.17 1.29 1.45

1.72 1.97

396441674867

5655

4000

6000

1.50

2.00

20000.50

1.00 2000

0.50

1.00

00.00

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

00.00

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020


Wind PowerAdded by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015Added by 15~20GW annually, achieve the target by year 2015

200001401

15631400

1600

1800

20000

25000

总装机容量（万千瓦）

(万千瓦) (亿千瓦时)10MW

C i (10MW)

0.1TWh

1004

1401

1000

1200

1400

15000

20000总装机容量（万千瓦）

发电量（亿千瓦时）

Capacity (10MW)

Electricity (0.1TWh)

60837548

958110000

494

732600

80010000

126 207 420 839 17603100

46236083

131276

494

0

200

400

0

5000

00

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

142015/07/02 China National Renewable Energy Centre

Challenges – accommodation of wind

黑龙江

g

东北

吉林

黑龙江

Wind bases

西北

新疆

甘肃河北

蒙西蒙东

宁夏

辽宁

Wind bases

西北

西藏

甘肃

江苏

河北

“三华”受端电网

山西山东

Load centre

南方

电网

南方

China National Renewable Energy Centre 152015/07/02

Wind curtailment in Q1 2015


PV’s pricep60 RMB/kW

50

40

50

30

35

2530

40

元/瓦

19

139

17.5

10 9 8.510

20

4.5 4.2 4

0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014PV module price decreased by 87% from 2008 to 2014

组件价格系统价格System priceModule price


Solar PVIncreased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed Increased 10.6GW in year 2014, 2.05GW of which coming from distributed solar PVsolar PV

10MW

Resource: National Energy Administration, China

Utility scale PV Distributed PV system


Solar PV – utility-scale PV stationsy

PV stations basically located in western and northern ChinaPV stations basically located in western and northern China

10MW


Solar PV – distributed systemy

Distributed PV basically located in the eastern partDistributed PV basically located in the eastern part

8

10

3

46

9

8

10

3

46

9万千瓦江苏 85浙江 70

12

10MW

12

4

8

1

4

5

8 10

212

4

8

1

4

5

8 10

2

浙江 0广东 50山东 38湖南 29河北 27

23456

3

4

5

67

9

5 7

33

4

5

67

9

5 7

3

河北 27江西 26安徽 25内蒙古 18上海 16

678910 上海 1610


Biomass energygy

Total 25 million tceTotal 25 million tce Power capacity – 8.5GW

Agro-residue 3.4GW Municipal solid waste

2.1GW Bagasse 1.7GW Biogas 0.3GW

Gas – 1.5 billion cubic metersB i tt / ll t 6 illi Briquette / pellet – 6 million tons

Bio-ethanol: 2.1 million tons Bio-diesel: 500,000 tons


Ratio of the non-fossil fuel power in the ppower system ( Year 2014)

19 2%

25.0%

19 2%

25.0%

19.2%

15.0%

20.0% 19.2%

15.0%

20.0%

2 8%5 0%

10.0%

2 8%5 0%

10.0%

2.3% 2.8%0.4% 0.7%

0.0%

5.0% 2.3% 2.8%0.4% 0.7%

0.0%

5.0%

Biomass核电水电风电光伏发电生物质能核电水电风电光伏发电生物质能Nuclear Hydropower Wind PV

Biomass power


Ratio of the non-fossil fuel in the energy gysystem (Year 2014)

8.1%

7 0%8.0%9.0% 8.1%

7 0%8.0%9.0%

4 0%5.0%6.0%7.0%

4 0%5.0%6.0%7.0%

0.9% 1.2%0.18% 0.33%1.0%

2.0%3.0%4.0%

0.9% 1.2%0.18% 0.33%1.0%

2.0%3.0%4.0%

0.18%0.0%

核电水电风电光伏发电生物质能

0.18%0.0%

核电水电风电光伏发电生物质能Nuclear Hydropower Wind PVBiomass power


Future Perspective


Non-fossil fuel target by year 2030g y y

Announced after the APEC meeting in Nov, 2014:

By year 2030, peak carbon emission for China, and non-fossil fuel mix in the

final energy consumption will be increased to 20%.final energy consumption will be increased to 20%.


Hydropower targetsy p g

420GW420GW (inc. 70GW pumped hydro)

290GW (i 30GW d h d )

213GW

(inc. 30GW pumped hydro)

2010 2015 2020


Wind targets

200GW

g

>200GW

100GW

31GW31GW

2010 2015 2020


Solar power targets

(100GW)(100GW)

p g

50GW50GW

20GW

(Increased to 35GW)(Increased to 35GW)

3GW3GW

2010 2015 2020


Biomass Targets for year 2015g yTotal 50 million Tce for biomass energy supplygy pp y

Breakdown

PowerPower GasGas Liquid Liquid fuelfuel PelletPellet

–– 13GW 13GW for powerfor power –– Ethanol Ethanol 4 mil tons4 mil tons–– Household Household 50 mil 50 mil bi 6000 lbi 6000 l –– 1010 mil tonsmil tonspp

–– Rich grain Rich grain productionproduction

–– Biodiesel 1 mil Biodiesel 1 mil tonstons

biogas; 6000 large biogas; 6000 large biogas projectbiogas project

–– Total 22 billion mTotal 22 billion m33

10 10 mil tonsmil tons


Future energy contribution – baseline?gy

120000

140000 （万吨标煤）

120000

140000 （万吨标煤）(10,000 tce)

80000

100000 生物柴油

生物乙醇

生物质能发电80000

100000 生物柴油

生物乙醇

生物质能发电 Bio-power

Bio-ethanol

Bio-diesel

60000

80000

光热发电

光伏发电

风电

60000

80000

光热发电

光伏发电

风电 wind

PV

CSP

20000

40000 风电

水电

核电20000

40000 风电

水电

核电 Nuclear

hydro

wind

0

2010 2015 2020 2030

0

2010 2015 2020 2030


Future energy contribution – high penetration?

非化石能源发电非化石能源发电占比91%

80%

90%

100%

14000

16000 Twh

3X62%

60%

70%

10000

12000

27亿

34亿

22% 40%

50%

6000

800027亿

10%

20%

30%

2000

4000

2010 2050 0%0

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

2010 2050


Summaryy

China establish policy framework to support RE development

Not competitive with fossil-fuel now Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Ambitious future targets for wind and PV Depend on more institutional reform and

technological breakthrough


Thanks for attention!


china’s renewable energychina’s renewable …feed-in tariff for renewable energy power wind: 2...

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