china use of surrogate data in waste sector … gao qingxian.pdfuse of surrogate data in waste...

Use of surrogate data in waste sector Use of surrogate data in waste sector estimation (China’s Case)estimation (China’s Case)

G Qi iG Qi iGao QingxianGao QingxianChinese Research Academy of Environmental Chinese Research Academy of Environmental

S i (CRAES)S i (CRAES)Science (CRAES)Science (CRAES)

focusing onfocusing onfocusing onfocusing onPurposePurpose ofof usingusing thethe surrogatesurrogate datadataMethodsMethods andand datadata usedused inin estimationestimationResultsResults ofof estimationestimationUseful advice / recommendation China’s experienceUseful advice / recommendation China’s experienceUseful advice / recommendation China s experienceUseful advice / recommendation China s experience

Purpose of using the surrogate dataPurpose of using the surrogate data

No DataNo Data

Why SurrogateWhy Surrogate data neededdata needed?? No Enough dataNo Enough dataWhy Surrogate Why Surrogate data neededdata needed?? No Enough dataNo Enough data

Quality of dataQuality of data

Good quality countryGood quality country--specific activity data mean countryspecific activity data mean country--specific data on waste disposed in SWDS for specific data on waste disposed in SWDS for 10 years or more10 years or more


Decision Tree for CH4 emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites


Total production of MSW and its compositionTotal production of MSW and its compositionMunicipal Solid Waste (MSW)Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

data neededdata needed

(food(food waste,waste, Garden,Garden, paper,paper, woodwood andand strawstraw ,, textiles,textiles, disposabledisposable nappiesnappies ))

Sewage sludgeSewage sludgeIndustrial waste Industrial waste (Manufacturing Industries and Construction waste)(Manufacturing Industries and Construction waste)data neededdata needed

(1/2)(1/2) Other waste Other waste (Clinical and Hazardous waste)(Clinical and Hazardous waste)

The Ratio of treatment of MSW(%)The Ratio of treatment of MSW(%)Resource RecoveryResource RecoveryCompostingCompostingIncinerationIncinerationDisposalDisposal


The Methane Correction Factor (MCF) The Methane Correction Factor (MCF) Managed: anaerobicManaged: anaerobicManaged: semiManaged: semi--aerobicaerobicUnmanaged: deep ( >5 m) and /or high water tableUnmanaged: deep ( >5 m) and /or high water tableU d h ll ( 5 )U d h ll ( 5 )Unmanaged: shallow (<5 m) Unmanaged: shallow (<5 m) Uncategorised SWDS Uncategorised SWDS

Oxidation factor (OX) Oxidation factor (OX) data neededdata needed ( )( )Managed, unmanaged and uncategorised SWDSManaged, unmanaged and uncategorised SWDSManaged covered with CHManaged covered with CH44 oxidizing materialoxidizing material

Methane Generation rate constant (k)Methane Generation rate constant (k)

data neededdata needed(2/2)(2/2)

Methane Generation rate constant (k)Methane Generation rate constant (k)Fraction of DOC dissimilated Fraction of DOC dissimilated ((DOCDOCFF))Delay time (month)Delay time (month)Delay time (month)Delay time (month)Fraction of Methane (F)Fraction of Methane (F)Conversion factorConversion factorM h R (G / )M h R (G / )Methane Recovery (Gg/yr)Methane Recovery (Gg/yr)


The Methane Correction Factor (MCF) The Methane Correction Factor (MCF) Managed: anaerobicManaged: anaerobicManaged: semiManaged: semi--aerobicaerobicU d d ( 5 ) d / hi h blU d d ( 5 ) d / hi h blUnmanaged: deep ( >5 m) and /or high water tableUnmanaged: deep ( >5 m) and /or high water tableUnmanaged: shallow (<5 m)Unmanaged: shallow (<5 m)Uncategorised SWDSUncategorised SWDS Expert judgmentExpert judgment

Oxidation factor (OX)Oxidation factor (OX)No DataNo Data Managed, unmanaged and uncategorised SWDSManaged, unmanaged and uncategorised SWDS

Managed covered with CH4 oxidizing materialManaged covered with CH4 oxidizing material Expert judgmentExpert judgment

IPCC defaultsIPCC defaults

Methane Generation rate constant (k)Methane Generation rate constant (k)Fraction of DOC dissimilated (DOCFraction of DOC dissimilated (DOCFF))(( FF))Delay time (month)Delay time (month)Fraction of Methane (F)Fraction of Methane (F)Conversion factorConversion factorM th R (G / )M th R (G / )

IPCC defaultsIPCC defaultsMethane Recovery (Gg/yr)Methane Recovery (Gg/yr)


Total production of MSW and itsTotal production of MSW and its compositioncompositionMunicipal Solid Waste (MSW) Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) (food waste, Garden, (food waste, Garden,

paper, wood and straw , textiles, disposable nappies )paper, wood and straw , textiles, disposable nappies )Sewage sludgeSewage sludge

Country specific Country specific methodologymethodology

Sewage sludgeSewage sludgeIndustrial waste Industrial waste (Manufacturing Industries and (Manufacturing Industries and

Construction waste)Construction waste)Other waste Other waste (Clinical and Hazardous waste)(Clinical and Hazardous waste)

Expert judgmentExpert judgment

No No

The Municipal Construction Statistics YearbookThe Municipal Construction Statistics Yearbookcarrying amount (MSW treated)carrying amount (MSW treated)disposal percentage of municipal wastedisposal percentage of municipal waste

Enough Enough DataData

p p g pp p g p

The Ratio of treatment of MSWThe Ratio of treatment of MSW(%)(%) Survey dataSurvey data (specific(specificThe Ratio of treatment of MSWThe Ratio of treatment of MSW(%)(%)Resource RecoveryResource RecoveryCompostingCompostingIncinerationIncinerationDisposalDisposal

Survey data Survey data (specific (specific years & region) years & region)



Time seriesTime seriesTime series Time series

Country specific methodCountry specific method

DataData

Country specific method Country specific method


Data Data QualityQuality ConsistentConsistent


Transparency Transparency

Expert judgmentsExpert judgments

Methods and data used in estimationMethods and data used in estimation

Urban nonUrban non--agricultural populationagricultural population16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

s

y = 12929.25 * ln(x) - 116443.35R2 0 96 TheThe relationrelation ofof nonnon--

4000

Volu

me

of G

a R2=0.965 TheThe relationrelation ofof nonnonagricultureagriculture populationpopulation andandthethe generategenerate amountamount ofof MSWMSW

8000 12000 16000 20000 240000

V

Non-Agricultrue Population

1/71/7


Gross Domestic Product (GDP)Gross Domestic Product (GDP)16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

3311 16 * l ( ) 25493 29

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

sa y = 3311.16 * ln(x) - 25493.29R2=0.978

TheThe relationrelation ofof GDPGDP andand thethe

4000

Volu

me

of G

a TheThe relationrelation ofof GDPGDP andand thethegenerategenerate amountamount ofof MSWMSW

0 40000 80000 1200000

V

GDP

2/72/7


The area of cityThe area of city16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

y = 0 59 x 1121 36

The relation of area of city and

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

s y = 0.59 x - 1121.36R2=0.989

The relation of area of city andthe generate amount of MSW

4000

Volu

me

of G

a

5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 300000

V

Surface Area of Built District

3/73/7


Urban populationUrban population16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

The relation of urban

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

s ln(y) = 5.50E-005 x + 7.28R2=0.906

The relation of urbanpopulation and the generateamount of MSW4000

Volu

me

of G

a

0 10000 20000 30000 400000

V

Urban Population

4/74/7


The number of cityThe number of city16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

y = 21 66 x - 2594 85

The relation of city

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

s y = 21.66 x - 2594.85R2=0.930

The relation of citynumbers and the generateamount of MSW4000

Volu

me

of G

a

200 300 400 500 600 7000

V

Number of cities

5/75/7


GDP per capitaGDP per capita16000

s)

12000

al(1

0,00

0ton

s

The relation of per GDP and

8000

rbag

e D

ispo

s

y = 3608.13 * ln(x) - 19706.85R2= 0.977

The relation of per GDP andthe generate amount of MSW

4000

Volu

me

of G

a

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 100000

V

Per GDP

6/76/7


The relationship of MSW Generation amount and its driving forcingThe relationship of MSW Generation amount and its driving forcing

EstimateEstimate modelmodel forfor MSWMSW

NonNon--agricultural population: agricultural population: MSW = 12929.25ln(x) MSW = 12929.25ln(x) －－116443.35116443.35

Where, x resprent nonWhere, x resprent non--agricultural population (ten thousand person)agricultural population (ten thousand person)Where, x resprent nonWhere, x resprent non agricultural population (ten thousand person)agricultural population (ten thousand person)GDP:GDP:

MSWMSW = 3311.16 ln(x) = 3311.16 ln(x) －－25493.2925493.29Where x resprent GDP ( 100 million Yuan RMB)Where x resprent GDP ( 100 million Yuan RMB)Where, x resprent GDP ( 100 million Yuan RMB)Where, x resprent GDP ( 100 million Yuan RMB)

GDP per capita GDP per capita MSWMSW = 3608.13 ln(x) = 3608.13 ln(x) －－19706.85 19706.85

Where x resprent GDP per capita (Yuan RMB)Where x resprent GDP per capita (Yuan RMB)Where, x resprent GDP per capita (Yuan RMB)Where, x resprent GDP per capita (Yuan RMB)

7/77/7

Results of estimationResults of estimation

29000

Scenario I : Based on the GDPScenario I : Based on the GDP

YearYear 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 2050205026000

）YearYear 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 20502050S1S1 197694197694 367007367007 522370522370 10052091005209 15307211530721S2S2 178936178936 321962321962 544767544767 846006846006 1181895118189520000

23000

运量

(万

吨

S2S2 178936178936 321962321962 544767544767 846006846006 11818951181895S3S3 175997175997 286681286681 404392404392S4S4 160224160224 237171237171 31873831873817000

20000

活垃

圾清

运

情景1

情景S4S4 160224160224 237171237171 318738318738

S1: http://macrochina com cn/report/free/detail/xs/008/00001493 shtml

14000

生活情景2

情景3

情景4S1: http://macrochina.com.cn/report/free/detail/xs/008/00001493.shtmlS2: http://www.drcnet.com.cn/new_product/drcexpert/showdoc.asp?doc_id=144563S3 & S4: 王高尚、韩梅《中国重要矿产资源的需求预测》。

11000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050yeary

1/61/6


ChinaChina’’s population predicted by FAO Unit : 10s population predicted by FAO Unit : 1088 personspersons29000

Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Population 13.72903 14.38192 14.59865 14.48698 14.0519123000

26000

吨）

The four future per GDP scenes in China Unit : yuanThe four future per GDP scenes in China Unit : yuan20000

23000

清运

量(万

吨

Year 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

S1 14399.70 25518.64 35782.09 69387.06 108933.3117000

生活

垃圾

清

情景1

情景2

情景3

S2 13033.40 22386.58 37316.26 58397.68 84109.21S3 12819.33 19933.43 27700.64

11000

14000 情景4

S4 11670.45 16490.91 21833.3911000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050year

2/62/6


NonNon--Agriculture Population ScenariosAgriculture Population Scenarios

YearYear 20002000 20102010 20202020 20302030 20402040 20502050

NonNon--A PopulationA Population 20952.520952.5 29101.429101.4 40419.640419.6 56139.656139.6 68433.968433.9 75593.675593.6

29000

20000

23000

26000

运量（万吨）

14000

17000

20000

生活垃圾清运

11000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

year

3/63/6


80 90 100 110 120 130

50 50

40

45

40

45

30

35

30

35

1 to 10

10 to 20

80 90 100 110 120 130

20

25

20

25 10 to 20

20 to 30

30 to 50

50 to 100

100 to 200

200 to 400

400 to 650

MSW Generation amount distribution MSW Generation amount distribution (2000,2002,2004)(2000,2002,2004)

80 90 100 110 120 130( , , )( , , )

4/64/6


TheThe methanemethane emissionemission ofof 20042004

TheThe methanemethane emissionemission ofof 19941994

5/65/6


1000

1200

最小排放量

最大排放量

缺省值净排放量

400

600

800

1

1132

0

200

华北东北华东华中华南西南西北

33

33

444 44

7

7

22

22

66

600

700

最小排放量

最大排放量

5

447

66 5

5

419941994

300

400

500

600 最大排放量

缺省值净排放量

0

100

200

300

华北东北华东华中华南西南西北华北东北华东华中华南西南西北

200420046/66/6

Useful advice / recommendation China’s experienceUseful advice / recommendation China’s experience

Regional issuesRegional issuesRegional issues Regional issues economic leveleconomic levelindustrial levelindustrial levelclimate condition climate condition life stylelife style

Manage Issues Manage Issues law and regulation as well as standard law and regulation as well as standard Statistics systemStatistics systemStatistics system Statistics system Data sharing mechanismData sharing mechanism

The Composition of MSW in ChinaThe Composition of MSW in China

TianjingBeijing

The weighted average of carbon content of various components of waste streamThe weighted average of carbon content of various components of waste stream

Tianjing14.1%

0.0%43.5%

Beijing6.2%0.0%

37 6%39.0%

3.4%

paper and textilesgarden waste,park waste or other non-food organic putresciblesf

37.6%

1.1%

55.0%

paper and textilesgarden waste,park waste or other non-food organic putrescibles

food wastewood or strawother

food wastewood or strawother

SampleSample TianjingTianjing BeijingBeijing AverageAverage

Paper and Paper and TextilesTextiles

14.0814.08 6.246.24 10.1610.16components of waste components of waste

streamstreamOrganic Caron Organic Caron

percentage (Weight)percentage (Weight)

PP 2626Food wasteFood waste 39.0239.02 37.6337.63 38.3338.33

Wood and Wood and strawstraw

3.43.4 1.151.15 2.282.28

PaperPaper 2626

Wood and strawWood and straw 2828

TextilesTextiles 3030strawstraw

OthersOthers 43.543.5 54.9954.99 49.2549.25Food wasteFood waste 77

Fresh wasteFresh waste 1/41/4


60708090

1020304050

0Sh

angh

ai

Bei

jing

Tian

jing

Wuh

an

Gua

ngzh

ou

Hae

rbin

Xi'a

n

Jina

n

Cha

ngsh

a

Gui

yang

Fuzh

ou

Wux

i

Hef

ei

Nan

jing

Organic Waste Inorganic Waste Other Wastes

8

10

12

1991 1996 2000

①① Organic waste increase (Organic waste increase (~~50%);50%);②② Inorganic Waste decrease (Inorganic Waste decrease (~~23 34%);23 34%);

2

4

6

8 ②② Inorganic Waste decrease (Inorganic Waste decrease (~~23.34%);23.34%);③③ Recycle waste increase (~26.6%);Recycle waste increase (~26.6%);④④ Combustible waste increase.Combustible waste increase.

0

2

Paper Plastic Textile Woodd

2/42/4

The Composition of MSW in ChinaThe Composition of MSW in ChinaBecauseBecause therethere areare moremore containingcontainingBecauseBecause therethere areare moremore containingcontainingamountamount ofof moisturemoisture inin kitchenkitchen wastewaste ininChina,China, thethe DOCDOC valuevalue ofof kitchenkitchenwaste(waste(1010..22%%)) inin ChinaChina isis lowerlower thanthanIPCCIPCC defaultdefault value(value(1515%%))..DueDue toto thethe woodwood andand strawstraw wastewaste ininChinaChina mostlymostly isis dry,dry, andand therethere areare notnottt hh f hf h dd dd tt tttootoo muchmuch freshfresh woodswoods andand strawstraw wastewasteinin China,China, soso thethe DOCDOC valuevalue ofof woodwood andandstrawstraw ((3535..55%%)in)in ChinaChina isis higherhigher thanthanIPCCIPCC defaultdefault value(value(3030%%))..

Waste StreamsWaste Streams DOCDOC（（WeightWeight））

CCCC de ude u v ue(v ue(3030%%))..

PapersPapersWood and StrawWood and Straw

28.5328.5335.5135.51

TextilesTextilesKitchen wasteKitchen wasteDust (Sweeping dust)Dust (Sweeping dust)

27.6827.6810.1910.192.482.48( p g )( p g )

For fresh waste onlyFor fresh waste only

3/43/4


Collect different city historical data

4/44/4

The Disposal Rate of MSW in ChinaThe Disposal Rate of MSW in China

2543.5

West of China 20001994

30.248.4

Middle of China

41.774.8

East of China

35.860.2

Whole country

Th di l t i diff t i f Chi (1994Th di l t i diff t i f Chi (1994 d 2000)d 2000)The disposal rate in different region of China (1994The disposal rate in different region of China (1994 and 2000)and 2000)

1/21/2

The Disposal Rate of MSW in ChinaThe Disposal Rate of MSW in China

16000 70生活垃圾清运量

Treatment ratioTreatment ratio

12000

16000

运量

） 506070

化处

理率(万吨)

生活垃圾无害化处理率（％）

8000

活垃

圾清

（万

吨）

304050

圾无

害化

（％

）

理率（％）

4000生活

1020

生活

垃圾

01981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001

0 生

1981 1981 -- 20032003Generate Generate

amount of MSWamount of MSW 2/22/2

Information of SNCInformation of SNC

To submit lately National Greenhouse gases inventory To submit lately National Greenhouse gases inventory INCINC：：19941994SNCSNC：：2005 2005

To add new gases sources To add new gases sources ggINCINC：：COCO22、、NN22OO、、CHCH44

SNCSNC：： COCO NN OO CHCH HFCsHFCs PFCsPFCs SFSFSNCSNC：： COCO22、、NN22OO、、CHCH44、、HFCsHFCs、、 PFCsPFCs、、SFSF66

Geographical ScopeGeographical ScopeINCINC Chi i l dChi i l dINCINC：：China mainlandChina mainlandSNCSNC：： China Mainland + Hongkong SAR + Macao SARChina Mainland + Hongkong SAR + Macao SAR

The Greenhouse Gas Emission in different The Greenhouse Gas Emission in different sector of China (1994)sector of China (1994)sector of China (1994)sector of China (1994)

Agricultural

Land Use anf Forestry

Waste Management

Agricultural


Waste ManagementCO2 CH4

-500000 0 500000 1000000 15000002000000 2500000 3000000

Energy

Industry Process

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Energy

Industry Process

N O 7%

Agricultural


Waste Management N2O20%

7%

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Energy

Industry Process 73%

CO2 CH4 N2O

UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTUNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENTUNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT

There are two areas of uncertainty in the estimate of CH4 emissionsThere are two areas of uncertainty in the estimate of CH4 emissionsThere are two areas of uncertainty in the estimate of CH4 emissions There are two areas of uncertainty in the estimate of CH4 emissions from SWDS:from SWDS:

the uncertainty attributable to the method;the uncertainty attributable to the method;the uncertainty attributable to the method;the uncertainty attributable to the method;

the uncertainty attributable to the datathe uncertainty attributable to the data

( ti it d t d t )( ti it d t d t )(activity data and parameters)(activity data and parameters)


th t i t tt ib t bl t th th dth t i t tt ib t bl t th th dthe uncertainty attributable to the methodthe uncertainty attributable to the method

Decision Tree for CH4 emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites



activity dataactivity data

how the data is obtained ?how the data is obtained ?

i h di h dyy

waste generation data waste generation data (total municipal solid waste, total industrial waste)(total municipal solid waste, total industrial waste)

CityCity 662662 √√

weighed weighed

CountiesCounties 2861 2861 village and town village and town 4482144821

composition datacomposition datacomposition datacomposition data

based on the survey in typical cities or region based on the survey in typical cities or region

management datamanagement data (the fraction of solid waste sent to SDWS)(the fraction of solid waste sent to SDWS)management datamanagement data (the fraction of solid waste sent to SDWS)(the fraction of solid waste sent to SDWS)



parametersparameterspp

Methane correction factor (MCF)Methane correction factor (MCF)------------ Expert judgmentsExpert judgmentsDegradable organic carbon (DOC)Degradable organic carbon (DOC)---------- country specificcountry specificFraction of degradable organic carbon which decomposes Fraction of degradable organic carbon which decomposes

(DOCf)(DOCf)( )( )Fraction of CH4 in landfill gas (F)Fraction of CH4 in landfill gas (F)Methane recovery (R)Methane recovery (R)Oxidation factor (OX)Oxidation factor (OX)Oxidation factor (OX)Oxidation factor (OX)The halfThe half--lifelife

china use of surrogate data in waste sector … gao qingxian.pdfuse of surrogate data in waste...

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