china taiping insurancexqdoc.imedao.com/153ba87ee8772e3fda7af7e3.pdf · 2016. 3. 28. · +852 3922...

Please refer to page 10 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website

www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

HONG KONG

966 HK Outperform

Price (at 08:00, 23 Mar 2016 GMT) HK$17.72

Valuation HK$ 48.12 - Sum of Parts

12-month target HK$ 30.00

Upside/Downside % +69.3

12-month TSR % +69.3

Volatility Index High

GICS sector Insurance

Market cap HK$m 63,686

Market cap US$m 7,945

Free float % 40

30-day avg turnover US$m 20.1

Number shares on issue m 3,594

Investment fundamentals Year end 31 Dec 2015A 2016E 2017E 2018E

NEP bn 9.1 10.8 12.0 13.3 Underwriting Result bn -14.9 -18.3 -22.4 -27.4 Investment Income bn 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.2 Life Prem bn 102.3 127.0 152.0 180.7 Life Total Rev bn 126.1 142.2 177.6 213.0 Pretax Life Op Inc bn 8.8 5.7 7.6 9.9 PBT bn 11.0 8.4 10.4 13.0 Reported profit bn 6.3 5.2 6.4 7.9

Net Op Income bn 6.3 5.2 6.4 7.9

EPS adj HK$ 1.95 1.44 1.79 2.21 PER adj x 9.1 12.3 9.9 8.0 DPS HK$ 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dividend yield % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total SH Funds bn 71.8 79.9 88.8 99.8 BV/S HK$ 16.62 18.50 20.84 23.50 ROE % 12.6 8.2 9.1 10.0 ROA % 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 P/BV x 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 Tot Embedded Val bn 81.9 107.2 127.0 150.0

966 HK rel HSI performance, & rec history

Note: Recommendation timeline - if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2016

(all figures in HKD unless noted)

Analyst(s) Scott Russell, FIAA +852 3922 3567 [email protected] Howard Li +852 3922 1497 [email protected]

23 March 2016 Macquarie Capital Limited

China Taiping Insurance Strong underlying trends undervalued Event

Taiping’s FY15 result contains ammunition for both bears and bulls. Bears

will focus on weak 2H15 NPAT, large unrepeatable capital gains and higher

asset allocation towards debt schemes. By contrast, we prefer to focus on the

strong sustainable agent development, substantial margin improvement,

stability in running yields and the healthy solvency position, features which we

consider more reflective of underlying performance. We reiterate Outperform.

Impact

Very positive new business trends: VNB rose 48% for FY15 (in line with

our expectations) and growth accelerated in 2H. Unlike the 1H15 result

(where volumes were strong and margins fell), 2H15 saw margins rise

substantially as protection mix improved and premium terms lengthened.

Expansion of agent channel. Recruitment accelerated in 2H15 and the

company now has 232k agents. This has naturally put pressure on near-term

productivity, which we estimate fell 9% in FY15 (refer to page 4). While we

expect this may continue in 2016, headcount gains should underpin strong

agent sales in 2016; current headcount levels are 35% ahead of the FY15

average. This supports our VNB growth forecast of 27% in FY16.

Confident about investment outlook. The market remains concerned about

the serviceability of 2.5-4.0% policyholder guarantees as risk-free rates

decline. We note Taiping has slightly increased its EV investment return

assumption (in year one only) to 5.5%pa. While minor, this suggests to us

that the company remains confident about its near-term investment outlook. In

any event, this action – and the rising HoH yields in 2H15 – does not support

concerns for declining yields.

Solid solvency vs unclear asset quality. TP Life reported a solvency ratio

226%, flat in 2H15. Mgmt stated that this rises to 271% under C-ROSS, the

new risk-based solvency regime designed to penalise risky behaviour. As

such, it would appear that CIRC is not uncomfortable with Taiping’s asset-

liability management. In 2H15, the most obvious asset reallocations were to

debt schemes (19.3% of total invested assets) and equities (14.4%).

NPAT had been preannounced. Nonetheless 2H15 NPAT appears weak,

down 77% yoy. The source of the weakness was not clear as the decline in

divisional NPAT, capital gains and reserving strains were only modest.

Earnings and target price revision

We reduce our EPS forecasts by 2-3%. We increase our VNB forecasts by

<1%. Our target price HK$30 is unchanged.

Price catalyst

12-month price target: HK$30.00 based on an Appraisal methodology.

Catalyst: Monthly premium trends, policy reforms, 1H16 results due in August.

Action and recommendation

Outperform rating. The company continues to deliver above-average new

business growth, yet we think the stock trades cheaply at 0.57x P/EV.

http://www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures

http://www.hibor.com.cn/

Macquarie Research China Taiping Insurance

23 March 2016 2

Fig 1 China Taiping: Financial summary

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016

P&L (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E BS (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E

Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

GWP + fees 111,603 138,432 168,754 200,263 236,749 Cash & deposits 86,885 81,354 129,215 162,297 197,956

NEP 66,714 130,657 159,609 189,614 224,344 Bonds 149,656 150,285 238,257 299,255 365,006

Net investment income 14,095 16,525 20,722 26,537 32,578 Equity 35,588 51,773 39,087 49,094 59,881

Capital gains 3,410 11,627 (7) 5,075 6,285 Debt scheme 60,862 71,516 82,419 103,519 126,265

Other income 899 1,860 1,528 1,655 1,897 Property & other AUM 17,304 16,936 26,329 33,070 40,336

Total income 85,117 160,668 181,851 222,880 265,103 Intangibles 930 930 930 930 930

P/H benefit (34,030) (61,520) (46,980) (61,967) (76,311) Other assets 92,325 115,236 79,323 92,911 106,571

Increase in life reserves (14,350) (50,824) (79,351) (94,812) (110,205) Total assets 443,549 488,031 595,560 741,075 896,944

Commission costs (10,887) (12,873) (18,624) (22,103) (26,126)

G&A expenses (18,418) (23,392) (27,352) (32,460) (38,393) Insurance liabilities 265,021 299,905 382,208 481,545 597,893

Total benefits & expenses (77,686) (148,608) (172,307) (211,341) (251,034) Debt 21,488 32,179 32,179 32,179 32,179

Operating profit 7,431 12,060 9,545 11,539 14,069 Repo 39,524 16,648 16,648 16,648 16,648

Finance costs (820) (1,049) (1,124) (1,124) (1,124) Other liabilities 66,177 67,502 84,640 121,949 150,465

Share of associates 2 (2) (13) 10 14 Total liabilities 392,210 416,233 515,674 652,321 797,184

PBT 6,614 11,008 8,407 10,424 12,959 NET ASSETS 51,339 71,799 79,886 88,755 99,761

NPAT 4,874 8,168 6,385 7,912 9,827

Minority interests 832 1,827 1,205 1,495 1,881 Share capital 27,291 40,771 40,771 40,771 40,771

NPAT attributable 4,042 6,341 5,180 6,417 7,946 Reserves&retained earings 13,409 18,957 25,729 34,119 43,686

- Life 3,409 6,681 4,452 5,785 7,432 Equity attributable to SH's 40,700 59,728 66,500 74,890 84,457

- P&C 993 1,287 1,206 1,368 1,558 Non-controlling interests 10,638 12,071 13,386 13,864 15,304

- Reinsurance 388 422 526 641 762 Total equity 51,339 71,799 79,886 88,755 99,761

- Others 84 (222) 201 119 75

Shares o/s (closing, mn) 3,108 3,594 3,594 3,594 3,594

EPS 1.44 1.78 1.44 1.79 2.21 Shares o/s (wtd avg, mn) 1,974 3,415 3,594 3,594 3,594

- grow th on pcp 86.1% 23.6% -19.2% 23.9% 23.8%

DPS declared - - - - - SOLVENCY RATIOS FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E

Payout ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Life 275% 226% 228% 181% 137%

EV ANALYSIS (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E P&C, PRC 174% 178% 239% 227% 203%

Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 P&C, HK 1766% 859% 836% 839% 842%

Non-life ANW 16,464 35,686 31,107 33,085 35,315 Reinsurance 372% 551% 494% 460% 440%

TPI 3,054 5,759 6,355 7,048 7,859

CTPI (HK) 3,331 5,032 5,539 6,096 6,707 PREMIUM (HKm) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E

TPRe 2,575 5,253 5,770 6,398 7,142 Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18

Corp 7,504 19,642 13,443 13,544 13,607 TPL 82,209 99,538 123,576 147,822 175,789

Life EV 65,553 81,862 107,152 126,983 150,027 TPI 16,750 20,000 24,000 28,800 34,560

Group EV (reported) 82,017 117,548 138,259 160,068 185,342 CTPI (HK) 2,864 4,929 5,422 5,964 6,561

Reported Group ROEV 45.4% 21.7% 14.7% 15.9% 15.9% TPRe 6,108 8,005 8,966 10,041 11,246

Others 3,592 3,175 3,334 3,501 3,676

TPL VNB growth 37.4% 39.1% 27.5% 19.4% 13.4% Total GWP 111,523 135,647 165,298 196,128 231,832

- Agency 52.0% 33.2% 30.8% 20.1% 13.0% - grow th on YoY 27% 21% 24% 20% 19%

- Bancassurance 31.2% -16.0% -32.8% 0.0% 27.5%

Agency 14,665 17,006 21,993 25,616 28,870

TPL VNB margin (% APE) 23.0% 26.8% 27.1% 28.7% 29.1% Bancassurance 25,966 26,084 30,060 30,060 31,755

- Agency 32.9% 34.7% 34.8% 35.8% 35.8% Others 694 720 757 783 811

- Bancassurance 8.5% 6.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.7% TPL FYP 41,326 43,809 52,811 56,460 61,435

- grow th on YoY 27% 6% 21% 7% 9%

KEY METRICS FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Agency 12,937 16,355 21,323 24,926 28,159

Year ending: Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Bancassurance 5,300 5,552 6,448 6,448 6,962

Invmt income yield 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Others 582 523 549 575 603

Gross invmt return 5.5% 7.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% TPL new APE 18,818 22,430 28,321 31,950 35,724

Reported ROE 13.4% 12.6% 8.2% 9.1% 10.0% - grow th on YoY 48% 19% 26% 13% 12%

Reported ROA 1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2%

TPL INTERIMS (HKm) 1H15A 2H15A 1H16E 2H16E 1H17E

Divisional ROE 17.4% 25.5% 12.2% 12.4% 13.8% 6M ending: Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17

TPI GWP + fees 85,396 53,036 105,351 63,404 125,497

COR 99.8% 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% 99.9% NEP 80,092 50,565 100,315 59,294 119,626

Divisional ROE 10.1% 13.6% 9.4% 9.9% 10.4% Net investment income 8,080 8,445 9,575 11,147 12,542

TPI Overseas Capital gains 10,136 1,491 (2,119) 2,112 2,392

COR 94.2% 97.3% 97.3% 97.3% 97.3% Other income 825 1,035 1,004 524 1,086

Divisional ROE 8.7% 7.9% 8.6% 8.5% 8.5% Total income 99,133 61,535 108,775 73,076 135,645

TPRe P/H benefit (39,812) (21,708) (22,213) (24,767) (30,135)

COR 96.5% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% 93.9% Increase in life reserves (32,188) (18,636) (54,584) (24,767) (67,167)

Divisional ROE 9.4% 8.1% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5% Commission costs (6,760) (6,113) (11,623) (7,001) (13,851)

Per share data: G&A expenses (10,246) (13,145) (16,114) (11,238) (19,160)

BVPS 13.10 16.62 18.50 20.84 23.50 Total benefits & expenses (89,006) (59,602) (104,534) (67,773) (130,312)

NTAPS 12.80 16.36 18.24 20.58 23.24 Operating profit 10,127 1,933 4,241 5,304 5,333

Group EVPS (adjusted basis) 19.27 25.24 29.96 34.45 39.65 Finance costs (477) (572) (562) (562) (562)

Life EVPS (adjusted basis) 15.04 16.27 21.30 25.24 29.83 Share of associates 2 (4) 12 (25) 15

Non-life BVPS 9.19 11.71 10.20 10.85 11.59 PBT 9,651 1,357 3,691 4,716 4,785

Group AVPS 21.18 23.66 28.19 32.75 38.05 NPAT 7,263 905 2,809 3,576 3,639

Valuation at current price HK$17.14: Minority interests 1,405 422 596 609 734

PER 15.5x 13.5x 11.9x 9.6x 7.8x NPAT attributable 5,858 484 2,213 2,967 2,905

Dividend yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

P / B 1.71x 1.44x 0.93x 0.82x 0.73x EPS 1.77 0.01 0.62 0.83 0.81

P / EV 1.16x 0.95x 0.57x 0.50x 0.43x - grow th on pcp 133.2% -98.4% -65.3% 7404.1% 31.3%

Implied NB multiple 1.4x 0.3x -8.0x -9.5x -11.2x DPS declared - - - - -



23 March 2016 3

Key takeaways in pictures

Fig 2 Growth in value of new business… Three strong years in a row. FY15 VNB rose 48% (in RMB) and accelerated HoH into 2H15

Note: Growth rates shown are in HK$ reporting currency. Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016

Fig 3 Sales volume growth... Weaker sales in 2H15 across all channels. We expect this reflects a focus on better quality products (as per management commentary) and preparation for 1Q16 boom.

APE = Annualised premium equivalent (of new policy sales). Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

Historic VNB growth

VNB (HK$m) VNB growth % yoy

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

Historic APE growth

APE (HK$m) APE growth % yoy



23 March 2016 4

Fig 4 Agent headcount… Rapid recruitment trend in 2H15 (+57% HoH)


Fig 5 Agent productivity… Sales per agent fell sharply in 2H15 after the headcount increases of the prior two years. We expect this to continue in 2016 as new agents take time to contribute.


18,413 25,74241,140 46,781

60,78150,527 46,064

57,860

112,796133,734

147,953

231,766

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H15 FY15

Agent headcountFY15:+73%

3,0002,488

3,5443,750

5,2876,010

5,7046,382

6,8786,229 6,450

5,969

7,3487,266

9,617

5,8325,567

4,321

7,186

4,579

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

New

AP

E p

er ag

en

t per m

onth

(H

KD

)

Agent productivity

FY15:-9% YoY

2H15:-36% YoY



23 March 2016 5

Fig 6 VNB margin by channel... Very strong agent margin improvement in 2H15


Fig 7 Agent sales by premium payment term... Average premium term has been shortening over the past three to four years, however majority of business is still healthy with >10Y terms.

Note: Data based on agent channel first-year regular premiums (FYRP) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016

19% 19%

27% 27%25% 23%

27% 27%30%

22%24% 22%

26% 25%

30%

22%

36%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

VN

B a

s %

AP

E

VNB margins by channel

Agents Banca Others TOTAL

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

3-9 years 10-19 years 20-29 years 30+ years



23 March 2016 6

Fig 8 Agent sales by product type... Clear focus on long-term products and ongoing skew toward protection products

Note: Data based on agent channel first-year regular premiums (FYRP) Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, March 2016

Fig 9 Allocation of investment assets… Clear skew toward debt schemes and alternative fixed income classes since CIRC liberalisation in 2011. Taiping has the most aggressive investment allocation amongst the listed players.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 2H11 2H12 2H13 2H14 2H15

Short term savings Long term savings Long term protection Others

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 1H15 FY15

Unattributed assets

Investments in associates

Trusts & WMPs

Debt invmt schemes

Direct property

Equities (unlisted)

Equities (listed)

Bonds (non-Govt)

Bonds (Govt)

Policy loans

Cash & deposits

Non-standard &

unattributed = 27.2%



23 March 2016 7

Earnings forecasts

We have refreshed our forecasts and our changes are summarised in Fig 10.

We have reduced our FY16 and FY17 EPS forecasts by 2% and 3% respectively largely due to

lower assumed investment returns.

We have increased our FY16 and FY17 VNB forecasts by <1%. Whilst we have pulled back our

sales forecasts somewhat, we lift our margin expectations given strong 2H15 delivery.

Fig 10 What’s changed?


HKD mn FY16e FY16e FY16e FY16e FY17e FY17e FY17e FY17e

Current Previous ∆ ∆ % Current Previous ∆ ∆ %

GWP + fees 168,754 170,701 (1,947) -1% 200,263 205,532 (5,269) -3%

Premium ceded (7,628) (7,421) (208) -3% (8,885) (8,772) (113) -1%

Change in UPR (1,518) (3,034) 1,516 50% (1,765) (3,580) 1,816 51%

NEP 159,609 160,247 (638) 0% 189,614 193,180 (3,566) -2%

Net investment income 20,722 23,085 (2,363) -10% 26,537 28,153 (1,617) -6%

Capital gains (7) (334) 327 98% 5,075 5,445 (371) -7%

Other income 1,528 1,628 (101) -6% 1,655 1,773 (118) -7%

Total income 181,851 184,626 (2,775) -2% 222,880 228,551 (5,671) -2%

P/H benefit (46,980) (45,391) (1,589) -4% (61,967) (60,624) (1,343) -2%

Increase in life reserves (79,351) (83,806) 4,455 5% (94,812) (100,948) 6,137 6%

Commission costs (18,624) (18,849) 225 1% (22,103) (22,709) 607 3%

G&A expenses (27,352) (26,999) (353) -1% (32,460) (32,535) 75 0%

Total benefits & expenses (172,307) (175,045) 2,738 2% (211,341) (216,816) 5,475 3%

Operating profit 9,545 9,581 (37) 0% 11,539 11,735 (196) -2%

Finance costs (1,124) (1,282) 158 12% (1,124) (1,282) 158 12%

Share of associates (13) 1 (14) -2265% 10 4 6 146%

PBT 8,407 8,299 108 1% 10,424 10,456 (33) 0%

Income tax (2,022) (1,927) (95) -5% (2,512) (2,437) (75) -3%

NPAT 6,385 6,372 13 0% 7,912 8,020 (108) -1%

Minority interests 1,205 1,070 136 13% 1,495 1,404 90 6%

NPAT attributable to S/H 5,180 5,302 (123) -2% 6,417 6,615 (198) -3%

Basic EPS (HK$) 1.44 1.48 (0.03) -2% 1.79 1.84 (0.06) -3%

Breakdown of NPAT:

TPL 4,452 4,158 294 7% 5,785 5,563 222 4%

TPI 672 857 (185) -22% 783 1,021 (238) -23%

CTPI(HK) 534 578 (45) -8% 585 633 (49) -8%

TPRe 526 870 (344) -40% 641 1,070 (429) -40%

Corp 201 (92) 292 319% 119 (267) 386 144%

APE 28,321 30,678 (2,357) -8% 31,950 34,606 (2,656) -8%

VNB 7,670 7,635 35 0% 9,161 9,130 31 0%

COR - TPI 99.9% 99.6% 0.2% 99.9% 99.6% 0.2%

COR - CTPI(HK) 97.3% 94.3% 3.1% 97.3% 94.3% 3.1%

COR - TPRe 93.9% 91.6% 2.2% 93.9% 91.6% 2.2%

Group EV 138,259 135,659 2,600 2% 160,068 157,876 2,191 1%



23 March 2016 8

Valuation & target price

We have refreshed our sum-of-parts valuation of the company, a summary of which is set out in

Fig 11.

Our fair value has not materially changed (HK$48.12, from HK$47.88). We keep our target price

unchanged at HK$30.

Fig 11 Macquarie valuation of China Taiping


FY16E, HK$m unless stated TPL TPI CTPI(HK) TPRe Corporate Consolidated

Methodology Adjusted EV P/B P/B P/B NTA

Valuing 100% ownership:

EV (adjusted basis) 101,945 7,492 6,531 6,803 14,919

Implied P/EV (x) 1.9x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x 0.5x

Implied VNB multiple (x) 14.4x NA NA NA NA

NPAT 4,455 672 534 526

Implied PER (x) 44.3x 10.0x 9.1x 10.9x

Valuation 197,315 6,696 4,855 5,742 7,460

Valuing Taiping Group's stakes:

Taiping Group ownership 75.1% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Valuation of stake 148,183 6,696 4,855 5,742 7,460 172,935

Valuation per share (HK$) 41.23 1.86 1.35 1.60 2.08 48.12

Implied P/EV (x) 1.9x 0.9x 0.7x 0.8x 0.5x 1.61x

Implied PER (x) 44.3x 10.0x 9.1x 10.9x 33.4x



23 March 2016 9

Macquarie Quant View

The quant model currently holds a reasonably positive view on China

Taiping Insurance. The strongest style exposure is Valuations, indicating

this stock is under-priced in the market relative to its peers. The weakest

style exposure is Price Momentum, indicating this stock has had weak

medium to long term returns which often persist into the future.

Displays where the

company’s ranked based on

the fundamental consensus

Price Target and

Macquarie’s Quantitative

Alpha model.

Two rankings: Local market

(China) and Global sector

(Insurance)

120/246 Global rank in

Insurance

% of BUY recommendations 68% (13/19)

Number of Price Target downgrades 7

Number of Price Target upgrades 0

Macquarie Alpha Model ranking Factors driving the Alpha Model

A list of comparable companies and their Macquarie Alpha model score

(higher is better).

For the comparable firms this chart shows the key underlying styles and their

contribution to the current overall Alpha score.

Macquarie Earnings Sentiment Indicator Drivers of Stock Return

The Macquarie Sentiment Indicator is an enhanced earnings revisions

signal that favours analysts who have more timely and higher conviction

revisions. Current score shown below.

Breakdown of 1 year total return (local currency) into returns from dividends, changes

in forward earnings estimates and the resulting change in earnings multiple.

What drove this Company in the last 5 years How it looks on the Alpha model

Which factor score has had the greatest correlation with the company’s

returns over the last 5 years.

A more granular view of the underlying style scores that drive the alpha (higher is

better) and the percentile rank relative to the sector and market.

Source (all charts): FactSet, Thomson Reuters, and Macquarie Research. For more details on the Macquarie Alpha model or for more customised analysis and screens, please contact the Macquarie Global Quantitative/Custom Products Group ([email protected])

Fu

nd

am

en

tals

Quant

Local market rank Global sector rank

Attractive

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.5

1.6

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

China Life Insurance

Ping An Insurance

China Taiping Insurance

New China Life Insurance

China Pacific Insurance

AIA Group

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%


Ping An Insurance




AIA Group

Valuations Growth Profitability Earnings

Momentum

Price

Momentum

Quality

-0.5

-0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.5

-0.1

-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0


Ping An Insurance




AIA Group

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%


Ping An Insurance




AIA Group

Dividend Return Multiple Return Earnings Outlook 1Yr Total Return

-43%

-33%

-32%

-30%

23%

28%

29%

39%

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

⇐ Negatives Positives ⇒

BPS Growth FY1

Number of Shares Increase…

Profit Margin NTM

EPS Growth 5yr Historic

Price to Sales FY0

Price to Cash FY0

IRR Dividend Disc. Model

Price to Book FY0

0 1

Technicals & TradingRisk

LiquidityCapital & Funding

QualityPrice Momentum

Earnings MomentumProfitability

Growth

ValuationAlpha Model Score

-0.95-0.10

-0.09-0.70

NaN-0.38

0.36-0.19 0.26

0.53 0.58

0 1

Normalized

Score

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to sector(/246)

0 50 100

Percentile relative

to market(/815)

mailto:[email protected]



23 March 2016 10

Important disclosures:

Recommendation definitions

Macquarie - Australia/New Zealand Outperform – return >3% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 3% of benchmark return Underperform – return >3% below benchmark return Benchmark return is determined by long term nominal GDP growth plus 12 month forward market dividend yield

Macquarie – Asia/Europe Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie – South Africa Outperform – expected return >+10% Neutral – expected return from -10% to +10% Underperform – expected return <-10%

Macquarie - Canada Outperform – return >5% in excess of benchmark return Neutral – return within 5% of benchmark return Underperform – return >5% below benchmark return

Macquarie - USA Outperform (Buy) – return >5% in excess of Russell 3000 index return Neutral (Hold) – return within 5% of Russell 3000 index return Underperform (Sell)– return >5% below Russell 3000 index return

Volatility index definition*

This is calculated from the volatility of historical price movements. Very high–highest risk – Stock should be expected to move up or down 60–100% in a year – investors should be aware this stock is highly speculative. High – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 40–60% in a year – investors should be aware this stock could be speculative. Medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 30–40% in a year. Low–medium – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 25–30% in a year. Low – stock should be expected to move up or down at least 15–25% in a year. * Applicable to Asia/Australian/NZ/Canada stocks only

Recommendations – 12 months Note: Quant recommendations may differ from Fundamental Analyst recommendations

Financial definitions

All "Adjusted" data items have had the following adjustments made: Added back: goodwill amortisation, provision for catastrophe reserves, IFRS derivatives & hedging, IFRS impairments & IFRS interest expense Excluded: non recurring items, asset revals, property revals, appraisal value uplift, preference dividends & minority interests EPS = adjusted net profit / efpowa* ROA = adjusted ebit / average total assets ROA Banks/Insurance = adjusted net profit /average total assets ROE = adjusted net profit / average shareholders funds Gross cashflow = adjusted net profit + depreciation *equivalent fully paid ordinary weighted average number of shares All Reported numbers for Australian/NZ listed stocks are modelled under IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards).

Recommendation proportions – For quarter ending 31 December 2015

AU/NZ Asia RSA USA CA EUR

Outperform 50.68% 61.04% 53.16% 47.90% 65.22% 43.59% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.33% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Neutral 31.51% 24.66% 34.18% 47.70% 29.71% 34.62% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 5.02% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

Underperform 17.81% 14.30% 12.66% 4.39% 5.07% 21.79% (for global coverage by Macquarie, 3.78% of stocks followed are investment banking clients)

966 HK vs HSI, & rec history

(all figures in HKD currency unless noted)

Note: Recommendation timeline – if not a continuous line, then there was no Macquarie coverage at the time or there was an embargo period.

Source: FactSet, Macquarie Research, March 2016

12-month target price methodology

966 HK: HK$30.00 based on a Appraisal methodology

Company-specific disclosures: 966 HK: Macquarie Capital Limited makes a market in the securities of China Taiping Insurance Holdings Co Ltd. Important disclosure information regarding the subject companies covered in this report is available at www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures.

Date Stock Code (BBG code) Recommendation Target Price 17-Feb-2016 966 HK Outperform HK$30.00 26-Aug-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$32.00 08-May-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$35.00 27-Mar-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$30.00 11-Feb-2015 966 HK Outperform HK$28.00 25-Aug-2014 966 HK Outperform HK$21.85 31-Mar-2014 966 HK Outperform HK$17.10 13-Dec-2013 966 HK Outperform HK$16.15

Target price risk disclosures: 966 HK: Any inability to compete successfully in their markets may harm the business. This could be a result of many factors which may include geographic mix and introduction of improved products or service offerings by competitors. The results of operations may be materially affected by global economic conditions generally, including conditions in financial markets. The company is exposed to market risks, such as changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates and input prices. From time to time, the company will enter into transactions, including transactions in derivative instruments, to manage certain of these exposures.

Analyst certification: We hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. The Analysts responsible for preparing this report receive compensation from Macquarie that is based upon various factors including Macquarie Group Ltd total revenues, a portion of which are generated by Macquarie Group’s Investment Banking activities. General disclaimers:




23 March 2016 11

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Asia Research Head of Equity Research

Peter Redhead (Global – Head) (852) 3922 4836

Matt Nacard (Asia – Head) (852) 3922 1362

Automobiles/Auto Parts

Janet Lewis (China) (852) 3922 5417

Zhixuan Lin (China) (8621) 2412 9006

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Lyall Taylor (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8489

Takuo Katayama (Japan) (813) 3512 7856

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Banks and Non-Bank Financials

Matthew Smith (China) (8621) 2412 9022

Suresh Ganapathy (India) (9122) 6720 4078


Keisuke Moriyama (Japan) (813) 3512 7476

Leo Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 6050

Chan Hwang (Korea) (822) 3705 8643

Gilbert Lopez (Philippines) (632) 857 0892

Thomas Stoegner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0854

Dexter Hsu (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7530

Passakorn Linmaneechote (Thailand) (662) 694 7728

Conglomerates


Consumer and Gaming

Linda Huang (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 4068

Kai Tan (China) (852) 3922 3720

Zibo Chen (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1130

Amit Mishra (India) (9122) 6720 4084

Fransisca Widjaja (Singapore) (65) 6601 0847

Hendy Soegiarto (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8369

Toby Williams (Japan) (813) 3512 7392

HongSuk Na (Korea) (822) 3705 8678

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Emerging Leaders

Jake Lynch (China, Asia) (852) 3922 3583

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Neel Sinha (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0562

Timothy Lam (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1086

Mike Allen (Japan) (813) 3512 7859

Kwang Cho (Korea) (822) 3705 4953

Industrials

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417

Patrick Dai (China) (8621) 2412 9082

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087


Kenjin Hotta (Japan) (813) 3512 7871

James Hong (Korea) (822) 3705 8661

Insurance

Scott Russell (Asia, Japan) (852) 3922 3567

Leo Nakada (Japan) (813) 3512 6050


Software and Internet

Wendy Huang (Asia) (852) 3922 3378

David Gibson (Asia) (813) 3512 7880

Hillman Chan (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3716

Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090

Nathan Ramler (Japan) (813) 3512 7875

Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Oil, Gas and Petrochemicals

James Hubbard (Asia) (852) 3922 1226

Aditya Suresh (Asia) (852) 3922 1265

Duke Suttikulpanich (ASEAN) (65) 6601 0148

Abhishek Agarwal (India) (9122) 6720 4079

Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Isaac Chow (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8982

Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare

Abhishek Singhal (India) (9122) 6720 4086

David Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8686

Property

Tuck Yin Soong (Asia, Singapore) (65) 6601 0838

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Kai Tan (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3720

Raymond Liu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3629

Wilson Ho (China) (852) 3922 3248

Abhishek Bhandari (India) (9122) 6720 4088

William Montgomery (Japan) (813) 3512 7864

Aiman Mohamad (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8986

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Patti Tomaitrichitr (Thailand) (662) 694 7727

Resources / Metals and Mining

Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093

Stanley Liong (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8381

Polina Diyachkina (Japan) (813) 3512 7886

Anna Park (Korea) (822) 3705 8669

Technology

Damian Thong (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7877

Allen Chang (852) 3922 1136 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)

Nitin Mohta (India) (9122) 6720 4090

David Gibson (Japan) (813) 3512 7880

George Chang (Japan) (813) 3512 7854

Daniel Kim (Korea) (822) 3705 8641

Soyun Shin (Korea) (822) 3705 8659

Patrick Liao (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7515

Louis Cheng (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7526

Telecoms

Nathan Ramler (Asia, Japan) (813) 3512 7875

Danny Chu (852) 3922 4762 (China, Hong Kong, Taiwan)

Abhishek Agarwal (India) (9122) 6720 4079

David Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 8686

Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia, Singapore) (603) 2059 8989

Kervin Sisayan (Philippines) (632) 857 0893

Transport & Infrastructure

Janet Lewis (Asia) (852) 3922 5417

Azita Nazrene (ASEAN) (603) 2059 8980

Corinne Jian (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7522

Utilities & Renewables

Alan Hon (Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3589

Inderjeetsingh Bhatia (India) (9122) 6720 4087

Prem Jearajasingam (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8989

Karisa Magpayo (Philippines) (632) 857 0899

Commodities

Colin Hamilton (Global) (4420) 3037 4061

Ian Roper (65) 6601 0698

Jim Lennon (4420) 3037 4271

Lynn Zhao (8621) 2412 9035

Matthew Turner (4420) 3037 4340

Rakesh Arora (9122) 6720 4093

Economics

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Global) (813) 3512 7850

Larry Hu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 3778

Tanvee Gupta Jain (India) (9122) 6720 4355

Quantitative / CPG

Gurvinder Brar (Global) (4420) 3037 4036

Woei Chan (Asia) (852) 3922 1421

Anthony Ng (Asia) (852) 3922 1561

Danny Deng (Asia) (852) 3922 4646

Per Gullberg (Asia) (852) 3922 1478

Strategy/Country

Viktor Shvets (Asia, Global) (852) 3922 3883

Chetan Seth (Asia) (852) 3922 4769

Peter Eadon-Clarke (Japan) (813) 3512 7850

David Ng (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1291

Erwin Sanft (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 1516

Rakesh Arora (India) (9122) 6720 4093




Conrad Werner (Singapore) (65) 6601 0182

Jeffrey Ohlweiler (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7512

Alastair Macdonald (Thailand) (662) 694 7753

Find our research at Macquarie: www.macquarie.com.au/research Thomson: www.thomson.com/financial Reuters: www.knowledge.reuters.com Bloomberg: MAC GO Factset: http://www.factset.com/home.aspx CapitalIQ www.capitaliq.com Email [email protected] for access

Asia Sales Regional Heads of Sales

Miki Edelman (Global) (1 212) 231 6121

Jeffrey Chung (Asia) (852) 3922 2074

Jeff Evans (Boston) (1 617) 598 2508

Jeffrey Shiu (China, Hong Kong) (852) 3922 2061

Thomas Renz (Geneva) (41) 22 818 7712

Riaz Hyder (Indonesia) (6221) 2598 8486

Nick Cant (Japan) (65) 6601 0210

John Jay Lee (Korea) (822) 3705 9988

Nik Hadi (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Eric Roles (New York) (1 212) 231 2559

Gino C Rojas (Philippines) (632) 857 0861

Regional Heads of Sales cont’d

Paul Colaco (San Francisco) (1 415) 762 5003

Ruben Boopalan (Singapore) (603) 2059 8888

Erica Wang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7586

Angus Kent (Thailand) (662) 694 7601

Ben Musgrave (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4882

Julien Roux (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4867

Sales Trading

Adam Zaki (Asia) (852) 3922 2002

Stanley Dunda (Indonesia) (6221) 515 1555

Sales Trading cont’d

Suhaida Samsudin (Malaysia) (603) 2059 8888

Michael Santos (Philippines) (632) 857 0813

Chris Reale (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Marc Rosa (New York) (1 212) 231 2555

Justin Morrison (Singapore) (65) 6601 0288

Isaac Huang (Taiwan) (8862) 2734 7582

Brendan Rake (Thailand) (662) 694 7707

Mike Keen (UK/Europe) (44) 20 3037 4905


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