WWRP/Beijing 2008 Olympics Forecast Demonstration Project

Implementation Plan (Draft)Implementation Plan (Draft)

XIAODING YUXIAODING YU

China Meteorological AdministrationChina Meteorological Administration

September 2005September 2005

A WMO/WWRP-FDP will be conducted during A WMO/WWRP-FDP will be conducted during the period of Beijing 2008 Olympics the period of Beijing 2008 Olympics

Focus: 0-6h Nowcast

Beijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 AugustBeijing 2008 Olympics: 8 to 24 August

Position: 39.6 Position: 39.6 °° N, 116.7 N, 116.7 °E°E

Population: 16 MillionsPopulation: 16 Millions

Area: 16800 kmArea: 16800 km22

BeijingBeijing

TopographyTopography

Mountains located to the Mountains located to the northeast, north and wesnortheast, north and west. The southeast is a smt. The southeast is a smooth plain sloping to the ooth plain sloping to the Bohai BayBohai Bay

VenuesVenues

The locations and areas of competition for Beijing 2008 Olympics Games

Climate （（ August 8-24, August 8-24, 19801980——20012001））

Elements Value

Average Temperature（℃） 25.225.2

Average Maximum. temperature （℃） 29.929.9

Extreme Maximum. temperature ( )℃ 35.735.7

Average Minimum. temperature（℃） 21.1

Extreme Minimum. temperature ( )℃ 14.3

Average Relative humidity（%） 75

Maximum Relative Humidity(%) 99

Minimum Relative Humidity(%) 13

Average wind speed (m/s) 1.8

Precipitation probabilityPrecipitation probability （（%%）） 49.249.2

Thunderstorm probabilityThunderstorm probability （（%%）） 25.925.9

2004/07/102004/07/10

Torrential rain hits BeijingTorrential rain hits Beijing

GoalsGoals• demonstrate how operationally tested state-of-the-art demonstrate how operationally tested state-of-the-art nowcast systems can provide an improved nowcast nowcast systems can provide an improved nowcast service in Beijing area where weather is highly service in Beijing area where weather is highly impacted by complex topography.impacted by complex topography.

• provide the weather service for the Olympics ;provide the weather service for the Olympics ;

• demonstrate the progress of nowcast techniques since demonstrate the progress of nowcast techniques since S2000 FDP;S2000 FDP;

• promote the application of advanced nowcast techniqupromote the application of advanced nowcast techniques in China and other countries.es in China and other countries.

Participating SystemsParticipating Systems

•    Beijing-ANC (BMB/China and NCAR/US)   Beijing-ANC (BMB/China and NCAR/US)   

• CARDS (Canada)CARDS (Canada)

•    GRAPES (CAMS/China)GRAPES (CAMS/China)

• NIWOT(NCAR/US)NIWOT(NCAR/US)

• STEPS (BOM/Australia)STEPS (BOM/Australia)

• SWIRLSSWIRLS (HKO/HK/China) (HKO/HK/China)

• TIFS (BOM/ Australia)TIFS (BOM/ Australia)

•    WDSS II (NSSL/US)WDSS II (NSSL/US)

B08FDP ContentB08FDP Content

• Nowcasting Nowcasting

• FDP products dissemination FDP products dissemination

• VerificationVerification

• Social and Economic Impacts Assessment Social and Economic Impacts Assessment

• TrainingTraining

Nowcast Nowcast For local thunderstorms:For local thunderstorms:     0-1h nowcast of time- and space-specific storm tracks, intensities, precip0-1h nowcast of time- and space-specific storm tracks, intensities, precipitation, and accompanying severe weather such as large hails, wind gust and itation, and accompanying severe weather such as large hails, wind gust and flash flooding. Forecasts updated every 10min. Resolution better than 2km.flash flooding. Forecasts updated every 10min. Resolution better than 2km.

For larger scale precipitation system:For larger scale precipitation system: A mix of expert system based method and NWP model is encouraged A mix of expert system based method and NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-6h forecasts of precipitation, severe weather potential if possible.to provide 0-6h forecasts of precipitation, severe weather potential if possible.

For near storm environments:For near storm environments: High resolution (1-4km) NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-18h preHigh resolution (1-4km) NWP model is encouraged to provide 0-18h prediction of storm environments or directly the meso- ß scale weather systems, diction of storm environments or directly the meso- ß scale weather systems, and associated precipitation, wind.and associated precipitation, wind.

Data and Infrastructure AvailableData and Infrastructure Available

• Observational NetworkObservational Network

• NWP ModelsNWP Models

Observational NetworkObservational Network

Radar: Two in Beijing, four in surrounding areasRadar: Two in Beijing, four in surrounding areas

Satellite: Chinese and Japanese, updated every 15min by 2008.Satellite: Chinese and Japanese, updated every 15min by 2008.

Radiosonde: twice daily to four times daily.Radiosonde: twice daily to four times daily.

AWS: 80 now to 133 by 2008AWS: 80 now to 133 by 2008

Profiler: 3 by 2008Profiler: 3 by 2008

Ground-based GPS: 11 now, 14 by 2008.Ground-based GPS: 11 now, 14 by 2008.

Lightening locating systems : 1 nowLightening locating systems : 1 now

Doppler Weather Radar in Beijing and Surrounding AreasDoppler Weather Radar in Beijing and Surrounding Areas

HefeiHefeiTianjinTianjin

Installed in 1999Installed in 1999 Installed in 2001Installed in 2001

Tianjin: 2002/07/01 Supercell Tianjin: 2002/07/01 Supercell

with hails of 5cm diameterwith hails of 5cm diameter

77月月 11日日 1919：： 0101

77月月 11日日 1919：： 0101

77月月 11日日 1919：： 0101

BeijingBeijing

Radiosonde Network in China

Current observational network in Beijing area (2004)Current observational network in Beijing area (2004)

Observational network in Beijing area by 2008Observational network in Beijing area by 2008

NWP modelsNWP models

NMC/CMA: NMC/CMA:

Global T213L31Global T213L31

BMB/CMA: BMB/CMA:

WRF with 3D-VAR (resolution 1-3km)WRF with 3D-VAR (resolution 1-3km)

6 Time Table6 Time Table

2006.8: Preliminary trials of nowcast FDP;Preliminary trials of nowcast FDP;

2007.8: Second round trials of nowcast FDP;2007.8: Second round trials of nowcast FDP;

2007.8: Training Course for direct users of FDP products;2007.8: Training Course for direct users of FDP products;

2008.6-9: Formal B08FDP;2008.6-9: Formal B08FDP;

2008.10: International training workshop on nowcast2008.10: International training workshop on nowcast