china economy presentation
TRANSCRIPT
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People’s Republic of
China
Sean Gallagher
Wells Brewer
April 8, 2014ECON 3331
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Introduction China:
Capital - Beijing
Language - Mandarin, Cantonese
Government System - Communism
Economic System - Socialistic/ Free Market
United States:Capital - Washington D.C.
Language - English
Government System - Democratic Republic
Economic System - Free Market
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Timeline
Imperial China Republic of China
221 BC
Peoples Republic of China
1911 1949 Now
Notable Dates
1971 Accepted into the United Nations 1978 Economic Reforms Started2001 Became apart of the World Trade Organization2010 China has 2nd largest Economy2012 The economic growth of china began to decrease
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Fiscal Policy
Set by government of China primarily parliament
“Proactive” fiscal policy is officially what the government is supporting
This can be translated as a moderate expansionary policy that creates demand and stimulates the economy primarily by expanding domestic demand
Source: China Daily
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Monetary Policy
Set by People’s Bank of China
“Prudent” monetary policy
The goal of a “prudent” monetary policy is to maintain price stability, as it usually means a relatively expansionary monetary policy when the economy turns sluggish or a relatively tight monetary policy when the economy shows signs of expanding too quickly
Source: China Daily
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“Healthy” GDP Growth Rate
When considering where the healthiest growth rate occurs, multiple points of intersection involving the highest economic growth rate while still maintaining acceptable price stability and a natural rate of unemployment are the essential elements. These are important elements of the growth rate:
real GDP growth rateGDP PPP($) growth rate real per capita GDP per capita GDP PPP($)
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Healthy Growth Rate
3%
GDP (PPP) $16.72 trillion
GDP per Capita (PPP) $52,800
United States
Healthy Growth Rate 7.5 %
GDP (PPP) $13.37 trillion
GDP per Capita (PPP) $9,800
China
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A “Healthy” 7.5% In comparing the historical inflationary percent changes with the GDP
growth rate changes, we see that the acceptable price stability occurs around the GDP growth rates of 7-9%
The next piece that we must look at is the per capita GDP PPP ($). By calculating the percent change from year to year, we have determined that growth of 9.3% occurred in per capita GDP PPP ($) from 2012 to 2013. This is a good example of the per capita GDP PPP ($) increasing at a high rate while having acceptable unemployment
In these years, if the real GDP growth rate was closer to 7.5%, unemployment at around 4% and inflation was relatively stable, the economy of China would have been healthiest
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Sources: CIA World Fact Book, Index Mundi
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Agriculture: 9.7%
Industry: 45.3%
Services: 45%
Agriculture: 1.1%
Industry: 19.5%
Services: 79.4%
GDP by Sector
United States China
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Population
Labor Force
Labor Force Participation Rate
Total Unemployed
Unemployment Rate
“Healthy” unemployment rate for China is 4%
“Healthy” unemployment rate for United States is 5%
Factors that must be considered in determining the healthy unemployment rate are:
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China’s Population
Labor Participation (Total Population)China United States
48.73%58.83%
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According to the official statistics regarding China, when the unemployment rate was below 4% there was rapid GDP growth with increased CPI volatility that hurt overall economic health in the country. The rate that would best serve China’s economic health is around 4%, officially
Again, this is the official statistical conclusion. This can be extrapolated from the graph measuring from the years 2000-2010 during which time there has been minimal change in the unemployment rate
In spite of large changes in other key areas which indicate economic performance such as GDP growth rate, GDP per capita, CPI, etc., the unemployment rate has remained nearly constant over the last decade. This is cited as an unreliable statistic
Unemployment
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Sources: CIA World Fact Book,International Monetary Fund
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The direct method of data collection, corruption by the National Bureau of Statistics, and the use of the registered unemployment rate (RUR), as opposed to the unemployment rate (UR) are all highly criticized elements of China’s unemployment statistics
China also has a massive migrant worker population estimated at around 260 million. The inclusion of these workers in the normal employment statistics can create inaccuracies when comparing it with other countries’ numbers
Possible Issues with Unemployment Statistics
Sources:Bureau of Labor StatisticsChina Economic and SecurityReview Commission Staff Research Project
Demystify the labor statistics in ChinaFang Cai, Yang Du, Meiyan Wang China Economic Journal Vol. 6, Iss. 2-3, 2013
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Problems with Aging Chinese Population and Labor Force
Shrinking number of people entering into labor force
Growing number of the aging in the labor force
In 2010, there were 110 million people 65 and above in China; by 2030, the number will be more than 250 million. By 2050, 25% of the population will be over 65
The One Child Policy which came about in 1979 is largely responsible for these problems with the labor force
Rural area working environments are also improving causing large numbers of potential migrant workers to stay nearby for work, thus dwindling the urban labor force even further
Source: CNBC: China's Aging Population Threatens Its Manufacturing Might
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“Healthy” Inflation Rate
A “healthy” inflation rate can be determined by analyzing a number of factors including:
Consumer Price IndexProducer Price Index
Money SupplyInflation Rate
These factors should be used to arrive at an inflation rate that is stable yet allows for maximum economic growth.
“Healthy” inflation rate for China is ≤ 2%“Healthy” inflation rate for the United States is ≤3%
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Inflation
Government of China can manipulate the rate of inflation by setting monetary policies
Due to the added volatility resulting from the financial crisis in the late 2000’s, the Chinese government has looked to focus largely on stabilizing the rate of inflation through its monetary policies
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This chart demonstrates the slowing rate of inflationary growth in China by measuring the percent change in the CPI.
From this, and by analyzing the historical trends in GDP growth rate, we can conclude that the healthy rate of inflation is around 2%. At this rate, arbitrary redistributions of incomes and wealth will be minimized while growth and consumption will continue to expand
Sources: CIA World Fact Book,Index Mundi
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Sources: Trading Economics and U.S. Federal Reserve
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One of the primary goals of both the monetary and fiscal policies in China is to produce a shift away from an investment led GDP towards one driven by consumption. This is referred to as “re-balancing”.
Currently, investment spending accounts for more than 50% of economic output
These investments come largely from the state. Again, the goal is to increase domestic consumption primarily through bolstering and enhancing the service sector.
The policy makers are accomplishing this by incrementally making credit more expensive through raising interest rates, which the government has the power to do in China
In the United States, the market sets the interest rates, so this level of direct control is not feasible here
Changes in Spending
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Implications of current artificially set interest rates
Because of China’s central ability to set interest rates, low rates on both savings and loans can simultaneously exist.
As a consequence, nearly 39% of GDP is spent by businesses paying interest on loans. Inevitably, businesses will seize making a profit if this policy continues for too long.
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Exchange Rate
1 USD = 元 6.21 Yuan
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Exchange Rate
International Trade
Current Account Balance
Exports
Imports
External Debt
Foreign Direct Investment Flows
Determining factors when considering flows of foreign trade and investments for both the United Sates and the People’s Republic
of China
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China has the world largest surplus
The United States has the largest deficit
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Source: IMF
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Export Trade Partners
United States
Canada 18.9%
Mexico 14%
China 7.2%
Japan 4.5%
China
Hong Kong 17.4%
United States 16.7%
Japan 6.8%,
South Korea 4.1%
These figures represent a percentage of total exports for the country
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Export Goods
China
Electrical and other machinery
Data processing equipment
Apparel
Radio telephone handsets
Textiles
Integrated circuits
United Statesagricultural products
(soybeans, fruit, corn)
industrial supplies (organic chemicals)
capital goods (transistors, aircraft, motor vehicle
parts, computers, telecommunications equipment)
consumer goods (automobiles, medicines)
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Sources: CIA World Fact Book, U.S. Census Bureau & Index Mundi
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Currency Manipulation
•A major concern with China is that its currency is intentionally kept low by the government through the stock piling of foreign reserves, so that Chinese exports can have an advantage over countries exports.
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Import Trade Partners
United States
China 19%,
Canada 14.1%,
Mexico 12%,
Japan 6.4%,
Germany 4.7%
China
South Korea 9.4%
Japan 8.3%,
Taiwan 8%,
United States 7.8%,
Australia 5%,
Germany 4.8% These figures represent a percentage of total imports for the country
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Import GoodsChina
electrical and other machinery,
oil and mineral fuels
machinery components
optical and medical equipment
metal ores
motor vehicles
soybeans
United States
agricultural products
industrial supplies
crude oil
capital goods (computers, telecommunications
equipment, motor vehicle parts, office machines, electric power
machinery)
consumer goods (automobiles, clothing, medicines,
furniture, toys)
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Sources: CIA World Fact Book U.S. Census Bureau &
Index Mundi
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Investments
Unites States
Domestic: $2.815 trillion
Abroad: $4.854 trillion
China
Domestic: $1.344 trillion
Abroad: $644.2 billion
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China’s Foreign Direct Investment – Net Outflows (% of GDP)
Source: Trading Economics
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China’s Foreign Direct Investment-Net Inflows (% of GDP)
Source: Trading Economics
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Analysis of Foreign Trade and Investments
ChinaEstablish greater rapport and respect for other countries laws and policies especially concerning intellectual property and internal financial regulations to bolster currency’s international standingShift GDP to greater domestic consumption and greater foreign domestic investment outflows
United States Reduce external debt, increase financial regulations, reduce trade deficits via expansion of exports of energy products such as LNG
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• “Healthy” GDP growth rate
“Healthy” GDP growth rate for China is 7.5%
“Healthy” GDP growth rate in the United States is 3%
• “Healthy” unemployment rate
“Healthy” unemployment rate for China is 4%
“Healthy” unemployment rate for United States is 5%
• “Healthy” inflation rate
“Healthy” inflation rate for China is ≤ 2%
“Healthy” inflation rate for the United States is ≤3%
In conclusion