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Deutsche Bank Markets Research

Asia

China

Banking / Finance

Banks

Industry

Chinese banks

Date

7 December 2017

Breaking News

Liquidity Risk Management Guideline – Divergence continues

Wholesale-funded banks with high shadow banking exposure under pressure

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong

Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 083/04/2017. THE CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (“THE PRC”) (EXCEPT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE APPLICABLE LAWS AND REGULATIONS OF PRC), EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAU.

Hans Fan, CFA

Research Analyst

(+852 ) 2203 6353

[email protected]

Jacky Zuo

Research Analyst

(+852 ) 2203 6255

[email protected]

Edward Du

Research Associate

(+852 ) 2203 6185

[email protected]

Top picks

Bank of China (3988.HK),HKD3.82 Buy

China Construction Bank (0939.HK),HKD6.78

Buy

Agri. Bank of China (1288.HK),HKD3.63 Buy

Source: Deutsche Bank

Companies Featured

ICBC (1398.HK),HKD6.02 Buy

China Construction Bank (0939.HK),HKD6.78

Buy

Agri. Bank of China (1288.HK),HKD3.63 Buy

Bank of China (3988.HK),HKD3.82 Buy

Bank of Communications (3328.HK),HKD5.79

Buy

China Merchants Bank (3968.HK),HKD30.40

Hold

China CITIC Bank (0998.HK),HKD5.03 Hold

China Minsheng Bank (1988.HK),HKD7.87 Hold

CEB (6818.HK),HKD3.64 Sell

Chongqing Rural Bank (3618.HK),HKD5.47 Hold

Huishang Bank (3698.HK),HKD3.82 Sell

Bank of Chongqing (1963.HK),HKD6.14 Sell

Shanghai Pudong Bank (600000.SS),CNY13.17

Hold

Industrial Bank (601166.SS),CNY17.81 Sell

Ping An Bank (000001.SZ),CNY13.30 Hold

Bank of Beijing (601169.SS),CNY7.51 Buy

Bank of Nanjing (601009.SS),CNY8.20 Sell

Bank of Ningbo (002142.SZ),CNY17.75 Sell

Source: Deutsche Bank

We value Chinese banks using a three-

stage GGM (PV= (ROE-g)/(COE-g)), with

target prices based on 2017E book

values. Downside risks: large-scale DES

on government intervention, over-

tightening and property price correction.

Upside risks: SOE reforms and removal

or softening of GDP targeting.

The CBRC released today The Guideline on Liquidity Risks of Commercial Banks, matching the Basel III standards of liquidity management (e.g. LCR and NSFR) and introducing new measures. We view it as a continuation of financial deleveraging, as we expect this regulation to lower banks’ duration mismatch, cut off wholesale funding and reduce investment in shadow banking assets. As such we see a net positive over the longer run as it reduces systemic liquidity risks. However, near term, the banks that are wholesale-funded and shadow-banking-centric are likely subject to NIM pressure. Among the banks we cover, joint-stock banks are more affected while big banks should benefit.

What prompted regulators to issue such a regulation? The leverage in China’s financial sector has increased notably in past years, characterized by rising duration mismatch and proliferation of shadow banking. Liquidity risks in the system trended up accordingly and only recently have started to moderate given the ongoing financial deleveraging campaign. To further contain liquidity risks, it is necessary to strengthen banks’ liquidity management, especially for joint-stock banks and smaller city/rural banks.

What are the regulatory changes? The key change is that the regulators introduced three liquidity risk indicators: 1) Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR), which measures banks’ ability to support medium-to-long-term funding needs; 2) Liquidity Matching Ratio (LMR), which measures the degree of duration mismatch; and 3) High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) Adequacy Ratio, which is a simplified version of Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and is applied to banks with assets below Rmb200bn. Together with LCR and Liquidity Ratio introduced in the past, the CBRC has established a comprehensive liquidity risk monitoring system (Fig 3).

What are the implications for the entire financial system? Judging by the details, China’s regulators are inclined to suppress interbank businesses with speculative purposes and to contain banks’ shadow banking exposure, while encouraging traditional loans/bond investments and the development of retail and SME banking. For example, the NSFR calculation assumes a much higher stability rate of 90-95% for retail deposits than 0-50% for corporate and interbank deposits. Also, for LMR the discounting rate for interbank deposits less than 3 months was only 0%, vs. 70% for deposits. This regulation is a follow-up to The Asset Management Guideline issued on 17 Nov 2017 (see our report), suggesting that the financial deleveraging campaign is not over yet. We expect China’s shadow banking to shrink with rising transparency while the growth of loan and bond market should stay resilient.

What are the implications for individual banks? We believe the regulation should favor banks with stronger deposit franchises, higher CASA ratio, less duration mismatch and better asset quality. Indeed, our detailed calculation (Fig 4) shows that deposit-funded banks i.e. big-four banks, are delivering higher LCR, LMR and Liquidity Ratio than other banks. Among the banks we cover, CMB, CNCB and MSB were reporting LCR lower than regulatory requirement, and many JSBs were showing lower LMR. We expect these banks to be subject to NIM pressure in the near run, as they may be forced to switch to lower-yield assets and/or to lengthen liability duration.

Distributed on: 06/12/2017 21:06:55 GMT

0bed7b6cf11c

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks

Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong

Liquidity Risk Management Guideline – Divergence continues between big and smaller banks

New liquidity risk regulation

We believe the funding side of China’s banking system weakened in recent

years during 2006-2016 with rising reliance on wholesale funding, which has

led to higher liquidity risks in the financial system. Interbank borrowing and

borrowing from NBFIs (non-bank financial institutions) accounted for 17% of

total liabilities of all banks as of end-2016, versus 8% in 2006 (Figure 1).

Smaller banks were borrowing short-term funding in the interbank market to

support aggressive asset expansion, which has led to rising duration mismatch

and proliferation of shadow banking. With increasing volatility in interbank

rates, there have been several risk incidents including the “liquidity crunch” in

June 2013, and more recently, default cases from a couple of rural commercial

banks in March 2017 as reported by media (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Weakening funding side of banking system –

rising reliance on wholesale funding…

Figure 2: …which increased interbank rate volatility and

led to several risk incidents in recent years

78%

72% 74% 74% 76%73% 71% 71%

68%66% 65% 65%

4%

4%5%

6%6%

8%9% 8%

7%9%

10% 9%

4%

7%5%

6%5% 5%

5%5%

7% 8%7% 7%

2% 4% 4%

6%7% 7%

7% 7% 7% 7%7% 7% 7% 7% 6%

7% 8% 8% 7% 6% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

China banking system liabilities breakdown

Other liabilities

Bond issuance

Borrowing from PBOC

Borrowing from NBFIs

Borrowing from

interbank (incl. CD)

General deposits

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

(%) Interbank R007 rate

2013 June

liquidity crunch

2017 March rural

bank interbank

default

Source: Deutsche Bank, PBOC

Source: Deutsche Bank, WIND

Regulators were not unaware of rising liquidity risks and they did issue a series

of regulations. The CBRC released the initial version of liquidity risk

management measures in 2014 March, requiring banks to fulfill 1) Liquidity

Ratio and 2) Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). To be specific, liquidity coverage

ratio only applied to large and medium banks with assets over Rmb200bn,

resulting in insufficient supervision/oversight on smaller banks. In September

2015, CBRC further amended the liquidity risk management rules by removing

the 75% loan-to-deposit cap.

Revising liquidity risk management rules – 2017 version

The CBRC on 6 December 2017 released a new consultative document of

liquidity risk management measures. In this new version, the regulator

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


introduces three new liquidity risk measures: 1) Net Stable Funding Ratio

(NSFR), 2) Liquidity Matching Ratio (LMR), and 3) High Quality Liquid Assets

(HQLA) adequacy ratio. NSFR is part of a Basel III requirement, which only

applies to banks with assets larger than Rmb200bn, while the HQLA adequacy

ratio (a simplified LCR) applies to smaller banks (assets less than Rmb200bn).

The new rules strengthen liquidity risk management for both large and small

banks, and set a phase-in period to smooth new regulation impact. The revised

rules will be effective from March 2018. We summarize the new liquidity risk

measures in the table below.

Figure 3: Summary of liquidity risk measures - 2017 version

Liquidity risk measures Applicable banks Calculation Minimum requirement Phase-in

period

Liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) Bank asset >= Rmb200bn High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) / net

cash outflows in next 30 days

90% by 2017 and 100% by 2018 2017-2018

Net stable funding ratio (NSFR) Bank asset >= Rmb200bn Stable funding available / stable

funding needed

100% NA

Liquidity ratio (LR) All banks Liquid assets / liquid liabilities 25% NA

Liquidity matching ratio (LMR) All banks Weighted funding sources / weighted

funding uses

90% by 2018 and 100% by 2019 2017-2019

High quality liquid assets (HQLA)

adequacy ratio

Bank asset < Rmb200bn HQLA / short-term cash outflows 70% by June 2018 and 100% by end-

2018

2017-2018

Loan to deposit rate (LDR) All banks Loans / deposits 75% cap removed in June 2015 NA

Source: Deutsche Bank, CBRC

Apart from the above liquidity risk indicators, the new regulation also

stipulates the new requirements below:

Detailed wholesale funding management: Need to set concentration

limits for different wholesale funding terms, i.e. below 1 month, 1-3

months, 3-6 months, 6-12 months and over 1 year.

Intraday liquidity risk management: Need to measure expected fund

inflows and outflows at different intraday times and consider the

liquidity impact from unexpected incidents.

Peer group comparison: Need to alert risk when wholesale funding

growth/proportion or LDR is apparently higher than industry average

or peer group.

Expanding monitoring measures: Banks need to report to the CBRC

immediately when any of the liquidity risk measures (six indicators

now vs. only LCR and LDR in previous version) approaches or falls

below the minimum requirement.

Including policy banks: Policy banks, rural banks & financial

institutions and foreign banks need to follow the rules.

The implications on banks

We believe the regulation should favor banks with stronger deposit

franchises, higher CASA ratio, less duration mismatch and better asset

quality. Below is the summary table of listed banks’ three major liquidity

indicators except the net stable funding ratio (NSFR). According to banks’

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


1H17 financial statement, (1) all banks meet the LR requirement, (2) big banks

are compliant with the LCR requirement, while smaller banks may face

pressure in NIM to meet the LCR minimum requirement, (3) there’s still a grace

period of around 1 year for banks to lift up their liquidity matching ratio to 90%;

please note that the numbers below are our estimates and might be inaccurate.

Figure 4: Summary table of regulatory requirement on banks’ liquidity status

1H17

Liquidity Coverage Ratio

(LCR)Liquidity Ratio (LR)

Liquity Matching Ratio

(LMR)

≥ 90% in 2017;

≥100% in 2018 ≥ 25%

≥ 90% in 2018;

≥100% in 2019

ICBC 123% 41% 79%

CCB 113% 43% 91%

ABC 131% 50% 80%

BOC 117% 50% 92%

BoCom 112% 55% 70%

CMB 83% 58% 84%

CNCB 84% 37% 95%

MSB 88% 43% 67%

SPDB 93% 55% 61%

INDB 93% 57% 47%

PAB 92% 52% 77%

BOBJ 97% 40% 63%

BONJ 113% 55% 76%

BONB 140% 52% 60%

CRCB 139% 37% 79%

CEB 95% 52% 70%

BOCQ 314% 80% 77%

Huishang 103% 31% 79% Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, CBRC Note: (1) BoCom, MSB and BONJ’s LCR data were from their 2016 financial statement, (2) CRCB and BOCQ’s LMR were from 2016 financial statement; (3) Green means 10ppt higher than minimum requirement; yellow means compliant but the gap is less than 10%; red means noncompliant.

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR)

Based on 1H17 data, most big banks are compliant with the LCR minimum

requirement, among which big four banks are 13-21% ahead of the 100% floor

in 2018. On the flip side, some major JSBs are +5/-5 ppts close to the 90% LCR

floor in 2017, implying they will need to shift long-term assets to shorter

duration. Notably, CMB (83%), China CITIC Bank (84%) and Minsheng (88%)

were delivering lower than 90% LCR. This is likely to bring further pressure on

NIM. Flow-wise, big banks’ LCR saw high-single-digit percentage point hoh

declines, which we believe was due mainly to their aggressive investment in

long-term asset by taking advantage of the market rate hike year-to-date. As of

now, with notably higher LCR, big banks enjoy the possibility of lowering the

LCR so as to boost NIM and earnings.

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


Figure 5: Banks’ liquidity coverage ratio as of 1H17; large

banks are ahead of minimum requirement in 2018 by 13-

21ppts

Figure 6: …thus they’ve turned slightly aggressive on

adding long-term/higher yield assets.

314

140 139 131123 117 113

103 97 95 93 93 9284 83

60

110

160

210

260

310

360

BO

CQ

BO

NB

CR

CB

AB

C

ICB

C

BO

C

CC

B

Huis

ha

ng

BO

BJ

CE

B

IND

B

SP

DB

PA

B

CN

CB

CM

B

Liquidity coverage ratio - 1H17(%)

2017 regulatory red line = 90%

2018 regulatory red line = 100%

219

56

9 8 7 4 0

0 -4 -4 -7 -7 -9 -17-32-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

BO

CQ

BO

NB

SP

DB

CE

B

IND

B

CR

CB

Huis

hang

BO

C

PA

B

BO

BJ

CC

B

CN

CB

AB

C

ICB

C

CM

B

Liquidity coverage ratio HoH change - 1H17(%)

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data, CBRC


Liquidity Ratio (LR)

As the minimum requirement of 25% liquidity has been adopted by

commercial banks for years, all listed banks under our coverage are compliant

with CBRC’s liquidity ratio requirement. As of 1H17, BOCQ reported the

highest liquidity ratio of 80% followed by some joint stock banks.

Figure 7: Summary table of regulatory requirement on banks’ liquidity

80

58 57 55 55 55 52 52 52 50 5043 43 41 40 37 37

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

BO

CQ

CM

B (R

mb

)

IND

B

SP

DB

Bo

Co

m

BO

NJ

CE

B (

Rm

b)

PA

B

BO

NB

BO

C (R

mb

)

AB

C (R

mb

)

CC

B (

Rm

b)

MS

B

ICB

C (

Rm

b)

BO

BJ

CR

CB

(R

mb

)

CN

CB

(R

mb

)

Huis

hang

(R

mb

)

Liquidity ratio - 1H17(%)

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, CBRC

Liquidity Matching Ratio (LMR)

Liquidity matching ratio (LMR) is the newly added requirement by CBRC in its

consultative draft; the purpose of this ratio is mainly to evaluate commercial

banks’ asset/liability duration allocation structure, aiming at leading

commercial banks to allocate more long-term/high-liquidity asset and liability.

On the flip side, CBRC seems to discourage development in interbank bank

business, on-B/S shadow banking (receivable investment), according to the

weighting composition of liquidity matching ratio formula. However, we

believe that it might not be an accurate measure to put bond investment and

shadow banking in the same category with 100% weighting. In our view, the

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


weighting of high-liquidity bond investment (i.e. treasury bond, municipal bond,

etc.) is highly likely to be further revised down going forward.

Based on the formula disclosed by CBRC, we calculate that listed banks’

liquidity matching ratios are generally at 60-92%. The minimum requirement of

this ratio is set at 90%/100% by end-2018/2019. Big banks look more

compliant with the new requirement while smaller banks will be further

depressed on either shortening asset duration or lengthening the term of

liability; either way will lead to further pressure on smaller banks’ NIM.

Figure 8: Banks’ liquidity matching ratio as of 1H17 Figure 9: … the formula looks unfavorable to interbank

and shadow banking investment

95 92 91

84 80 79 79 79 77 77 76

70 70 67 63 61 60

47

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

CN

CB

BO

C

CC

B

CM

B

AB

C

ICB

C

CR

CB

Huis

hang

BO

CQ

PA

B

BO

NJ

CE

B

Bo

Co

m

MS

B

BO

BJ

SP

DB

BO

NB

IND

B

Liquidity matching ratio - 1H17

100% in 2019

90% in 2018

(%)

Weighted use of fund <3M 3M-1Y >1Y

Loans 30% 50% 80%

Deposit with other FI 40% 60% 100%

Placement with other FI 50% 70% 100%

Repo 50% 70% 100%

Other Investment 100% 100% 100%

Weighted funding source <3M 3M-1Y >1Y

Deposit 70% 70% 100%

Deposit in other FI 0% 30% 100%

Placement from other FI 0% 40% 100%

Repo 0% 40% 100%

Debt securities and CDs 0% 50% 100%


Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, CBRC

Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR)

NSFR is a liquidity risk measure in the Basel III framework in addition to LCR.

NSFR only applies to banks with assets over Rmb200bn and they need to

achieve a minimum 100% NSFR from March 2018. CBRC does not provide a

phase-in period for this measure this time, as 1) the regulator started to require

banks to quantify the NSFR impact (and LCR as well) since 2010, and 2) PBOC

already included NSFR in the MPA framework at the beginning of 2016. NSFR

is calculated as stable funding available divided by stable funding needed

where:

Available stable funding mainly includes 1) 100% of capital and

longer than 1 year capital tools, 2) 90%-95% of demand deposit and

shorter than 1-year time deposit from retail and SMEs, 3) 50% of

shorter than 1-year deposit from corporate customers and 6-months to

1-year wholesale funding, and 4) 0% of other funding.

Needed stable funding mainly includes 1) 100% of longer than 1-year

encumbered assets and loans overdue beyond 90 days, 2) 65%-85% of

unencumbered performing loans with residual maturity longer than 1

year, 3) 50% of unencumbered lowered credit rating assets and loans

shorter than 1 year; 4) 5% for off-balance sheet commitment and 5)

0%-15% for other safer and short-term assets.

Unfortunately, due mainly to lack of sufficient disclosure, we are unable to

calculate NSFR for individual banks. According to NSFR’s definition, banks

with lower retail CASA and higher long-term high risk weight credit assets may

report lower NSFR. Reading from the two charts below, we believe INDB,

SPDB, BoCom and BOBJ may be under pressure to fulfill the NSFR

requirement.

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


Figure 10: High retail CASA proportion leads to more

available stable funding under NSFR definition

Figure 11: Banks with higher long-term high risk credit

assets and lower retail CASA may report lower NSFR

25

1816 15 15

13

87 6

5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

(%) Retail CASA as % total liabilities - 1H17

2326

32 33 33 34 34 35 36 36 3739 40 40 41

4345

46

37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

(%) Longer-than-1yr loan & on-B/S NSCA as % assets - 1H17

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data Note: We apply 65% ratio to total on-balance sheet non standardized credit asset to estimate the longer term part for individual banks

7 December 2017

Banks

Chinese banks


Valuation and risks

Valuation of Chinese banks

We value Chinese banks using a three-stage Gordon Growth Model (PV= (ROE-

g)/(COE-g)), with target prices based on 2017E book values.

Our valuations of the Chinese banks under our coverage assume a near-term

(2016-18E) ROE of 11.5-16.9%, a medium-term (2019-21E) ROE of 10.5-14.0%

and a terminal ROE of 8.0-12.0%, with a COE of 11.5-14.0%. In Figure 12, we

highlight our valuation comparison of the listed banks.

In our estimates, H-share/A-share listed Chinese banks are trading at 2017E

P/B of 0.80x/0.98x and 2017E P/E of 5.96x/7.29x.

Figure 12: Chinese banks’ valuation summary

Ticker Rating TP Price Upside Mkt. Cap

LC LC (%) (US$mn) 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E 16A 17E 18E

ICBC-H 1398.HK Buy 6.52 5.89 10.7% 308,826 6.8 6.3 6.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 4.1 3.7 3.3 15.2% 14.3% 13.6% 1.20% 1.15% 1.11% 4.5% 4.9% 5.1%

CCB-H 0939.HK Buy 7.68 6.64 15.7% 214,683 6.4 5.8 5.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.8 3.3 3.0 15.5% 14.7% 13.9% 1.18% 1.13% 1.10% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4%

ABC-H 1288.HK Buy 4.10 3.59 14.2% 183,094 5.7 5.2 5.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 3.3 2.8 2.6 15.1% 14.5% 13.8% 0.99% 0.96% 0.94% 5.4% 5.9% 6.2%

BOC-H 3988.HK Buy 4.78 3.75 27.5% 166,345 6.2 5.6 5.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 3.1 2.9 2.6 12.5% 12.2% 12.1% 1.05% 1.03% 1.01% 5.1% 5.6% 6.1%

BCOM-H 3328.HK Buy 6.53 5.68 15.0% 63,618 5.6 5.3 5.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 3.3 3.0 2.7 12.2% 11.4% 10.9% 0.87% 0.81% 0.77% 5.4% 5.7% 5.9%

CMB-H 3968.HK Hold 26.27 29.50 -10.9% 107,579 10.5 9.1 8.0 1.6 1.4 1.2 4.5 4.0 3.6 16.3% 16.2% 16.4% 1.09% 1.12% 1.17% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8%

CITIC Bank-H 0998.HK Hold 4.67 4.91 -4.9% 42,308 5.1 4.8 4.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.0 1.9 1.8 12.6% 11.7% 11.0% 0.75% 0.69% 0.68% 5.0% 3.1% 3.2%

Minsheng-H 1988.HK Hold 7.80 7.63 2.2% 46,408 5.1 4.8 4.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 2.4 2.3 2.1 15.1% 13.9% 13.0% 0.94% 0.82% 0.82% 4.2% 3.1% 3.3%

CEB-H 6818.HK Sell 3.24 3.58 -9.5% 28,491 5.0 4.8 4.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.3 2.1 2.0 13.8% 12.7% 11.6% 0.85% 0.74% 0.70% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%

CRCB 3618.HK Hold 6.05 5.36 12.9% 6,380 5.5 4.8 4.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 3.3 2.7 2.4 16.0% 15.7% 15.0% 1.05% 1.05% 1.04% 4.2% 4.2% 4.5%

Huishang 3698.HK Sell 3.14 3.80 -17.4% 5,374 5.4 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 15.8% 15.1% 14.1% 0.99% 0.96% 0.95% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2%

BOCQ 1963.HK Sell 5.65 6.06 -6.8% 2,425 4.8 4.2 3.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.4 2.0 1.9 15.5% 15.2% 14.6% 1.01% 1.00% 1.00% 5.4% 6.2% 6.7%

H-share sector mean 6.6 6.0 5.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.6 3.2 2.9 14.7% 14.0% 13.4% 1.08% 1.04% 1.02% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1%

ICBC-A 601398.SS Buy 5.98 5.97 0.2% 308,826 7.8 7.5 7.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 4.7 4.4 3.9 15.2% 14.3% 13.6% 1.20% 1.15% 1.11% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3%

CCB-A 601939.SS Buy 7.04 7.14 -1.4% 214,683 7.7 7.4 7.0 1.1 1.0 0.9 4.6 4.2 3.9 15.5% 14.7% 13.9% 1.18% 1.13% 1.10% 3.9% 4.0% 4.3%

ABC-A 601288.SS Hold 3.75 3.80 -1.3% 183,094 6.9 6.5 6.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 3.9 3.6 3.2 15.1% 14.5% 13.8% 0.99% 0.96% 0.94% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0%

BOC-A 601988.SS Buy 4.38 3.96 10.6% 166,345 7.4 7.0 6.4 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.8 3.7 3.2 12.5% 12.2% 12.1% 1.05% 1.03% 1.01% 4.2% 4.5% 4.9%

BCOM-A 601328.SS Hold 5.98 6.43 -7.0% 63,618 7.2 7.1 6.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 4.2 4.0 3.5 12.2% 11.4% 10.9% 0.87% 0.81% 0.77% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4%

CMB-A 600036.SS Hold 24.06 28.93 -16.8% 107,579 11.7 10.5 9.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 5.0 4.6 4.2 16.3% 16.2% 16.4% 1.09% 1.12% 1.17% 2.6% 2.9% 3.3%

CITIC Bank-A 601998.SS Sell 4.28 6.40 -33.1% 42,308 7.5 7.5 7.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 12.6% 11.7% 11.0% 0.75% 0.69% 0.68% 3.4% 2.0% 2.1%

Minsheng-A 600016.SS Sell 7.15 8.87 -19.4% 46,408 6.8 6.6 6.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 3.2 3.2 2.9 15.1% 13.9% 13.0% 0.94% 0.82% 0.82% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4%

SPDB 600000.SS Hold 12.75 12.96 -1.6% 57,523 5.5 5.2 5.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 16.5% 14.7% 13.6% 0.94% 0.89% 0.86% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7%

Industrial Bank 601166.SS Sell 14.92 17.56 -15.0% 55,162 6.4 6.3 6.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 17.1% 15.5% 14.4% 0.89% 0.87% 0.87% 3.5% 1.6% 1.7%

CEB 601818.SS Sell 2.97 4.21 -29.5% 25,344 6.7 6.6 6.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 3.1 2.9 2.8 13.8% 12.7% 11.6% 0.85% 0.74% 0.70% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%

Ping An Bank 000001.SZ Hold 9.48 13.08 -27.5% 33,961 9.9 9.5 9.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 13.1% 12.2% 11.5% 0.83% 0.81% 0.79% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Bank of Beijing 601169.SS Buy 9.34 7.43 25.7% 20,502 6.4 7.1 6.5 0.9 1.0 0.9 3.3 3.6 3.2 14.9% 14.5% 14.1% 0.90% 0.91% 0.91% 3.4% 3.0% 3.3%

Bank of Nanjing 601009.SS Sell 5.65 8.16 -30.8% 10,466 6.2 7.8 7.1 0.9 1.2 1.0 2.6 3.6 3.2 16.2% 15.9% 15.0% 0.86% 0.79% 0.78% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Bank of Ningbo 002142.SZ Sell 9.37 17.82 -47.4% 13,661 9.2 10.8 10.1 1.5 1.7 1.5 4.6 5.1 4.5 17.7% 17.1% 15.9% 0.98% 0.92% 0.89% 2.0% 1.7% 1.8%

A-share sector mean 7.6 7.3 6.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 4.0 3.8 3.4 14.7% 13.9% 13.3% 1.04% 1.00% 0.98% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7%

Note: Closing price of Dec 6, 2017

Div. Yield (%)ROAAROAEP/PPOPP/B (x)P/E (x)

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, Bloomberg Finance LP; Note: market cap is sum of A and H shares; data as of 6 Dec 2017

Risks for Chinese banks

Key sector risks for Chinese banks Disorderly deleveraging: the government could place disorderly

deleveraging requirements on certain industries, which might

unexpectedly lead to a bank run and squeeze banks’ wholesale

funding.

Over-tightening in real estate and infrastructure: If both industries

saw unfavourable credit conditions, the overall banking system may

have little chance to avoid asset quality deterioration.

Significant property price corrections: NPL ratios usually surge

following an over-correction in property market prices, according to

historical experience. For example, Wenzhou’s NPL ratio surged by

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4.3ppts to 4.7%, accompanying a 47% price correction in the city’s

property market.

CPI picks up and the PBOC is forced to hike benchmark rates: a

potential benchmark rate hike in the near term will likely be more

harmful to corporates (higher interest burden), which cannot be fully

offset by a profitability recovery under better economic growth,

considering that corporates’ leverage ratio remains at a higher level, in

spite of the mild improvement recently.

Larger-than-expected DES size given potentially stronger

government invention. Without strict selection criteria on the viability

of target companies, it could potentially ‘evergreen’ the debts of

zombie companies, worsen capital allocation and raise investment risk

for banks.

Key upside risks for the sector:

Removal of the softening of GDP targets: In the long run, we believe

this movement will likely be meaningfully positive to banks’ RoE/RoA,

as most of the legacy NPLs are disposed within the near term (two to

three years) and banks should have notably lighter credit cost burdens

in the future.

More aggressive SOE reform to push forward privatization: SOEs are

likely to be more market-oriented, profitability might be better and

asset quality will likely recover accordingly. As of now, we are seeing

improving conditions at industrial SOEs, while non-industrial SOEs

seem to still be struggling. We are closely tracking SOEs’ profitability

and ROE.

Pick-up in private investment by further deregulation and favourable

policies. Private companies in general are more productive and

efficient than SOEs. A leading indicator could be a pick-up in private

companies’ debt growth, which is muted for now.

The authors of this report wish to acknowledge the contribution made by Vivian

Xu, an employee of Evalueserve, a third-party provider to Deutsche Bank of

offshore research support services.

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Appendix 1

Important Disclosures

*Other information available upon request

Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from local exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors . Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject companies, and other sources. For disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page on our website at http://gm.db.com/ger/disclosure/DisclosureDirectory.eqsr. Aside from within this report, important conflict disclosures can also be found at https://gm.db.com/equities under the "Disclosures Lookup" and "Legal" tabs. Investors are strongly encouraged to review this information before investing.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. In addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Hans Fan

Equity rating key Equity rating dispersion and banking relationships

Buy: Based on a current 12- month view of total share-holder return (TSR = percentage change in share price from current price to projected target price plus pro-jected dividend yield ) , we recommend that investors buy the stock.

Sell: Based on a current 12-month view of total share-holder return, we recommend that investors sell the stock

Hold: We take a neutral view on the stock 12-months out and, based on this time horizon, do not recommend either a Buy or Sell.

Newly issued research recommendations and target prices supersede previously published research.

56 %

33 %

11 %18 %17 % 12 %

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Buy Hold Sell

Asia-Pacific Universe

Companies Covered Cos. w/ Banking Relationship

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Research

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