china and its lithium supply and demand dynamics
TRANSCRIPT
珍惜有限 创造无限
China And Its Lithium Supply And
Demand Dynamics11th Lithium Supply & Markets Conference, Santiago, Chile
Jingwen Sun
Analyst
SAC Reg. No.: S0950519050001
Nonferrous Metals Research
Equity Research 2019/06/06
珍惜有限 创造无限
Contents 目录
01
03
02
04
A Review of The Lithium Market:
Where Do We Currently Stand?
Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model:
Dive Into The Market Structure
Different Logics between China
Spot & Global Contract Market
Why Brine Projects Could Hardly
Replace Hard-rock Projects?
05 Understanding The Lithium
Chemical Cost Curve
2
珍惜有限 创造无限
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Lithium Carbonate & Lithium Hydroxide Spot Market in China
Technical Grade Lithium Carbonate (CNY/t,VAT Incl.) Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate (CNY/t,VAT Incl.)
Technical Grade Lithium Hydroxide (CNY/t,VAT Incl.) Batter Grade Lithium Hydroxide (CNY/t,VAT Incl.)
Shortage of spodumene concentrate
Shortage of effective converting capacity
Hydroxide enjoyed high premium, but narrowed quickly
OEMs highly incentivized were themain driver of lithium demand & price
Capacity expansion of cahode & Battery makers drove demand and price high,
along with stock-addingThe main driver returned to OEMs, the
end-use demand, as China battery market reshuffled
Sources: Asian Metals, Minmetals Securities Research
Exhibit: An overview of China lithium chemical spot market 2015-2019YTD
1. A Review of The Lithium Market: Where Do We Currently Stand?
3
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2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
100kt
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600kt
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2014-2020 Global Lithium Supply & Demand Model -Stock Adjusted (LCE, ton)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand-Stock Adjusted
100kt
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250kt
300kt
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600kt
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2014-2020 Global Lithium Supply & Demand Model (LCE, ton)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand
2.1 Short-term conclusions:
Figures of 2018: Mine Supply 373 kton LCE, Chemical Supply 282 kton LCE, Adjusted End-use Demand 273kton
2017-2019YTD Increasing surplus of lithium mine supply observed (nominal supply)
While lithium chemical is roughly balanced with a slight surplus in 2018 and expected to continue to 2020
Significant discrepancy between mine supply and chemical supply, especially in 2018&2019
Exhibit: Global Lithium Mine Supply, Chemical Supply, and Stock Adj. Demand
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Global Lithium Mine Supply, Chemical Supply, and Demand
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports4
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2.2 Questions for the long-run:
Which we should look at? Lithium Mine Supply or Lithium Chemical Supply
Is the discrepancy between Mine Supply and Chemical Supply sustainable? How will that evolve?
Why we emphasize the “Stock Adjusted Demand” in this fast growing market?
What will bring about the turn-around? The Price Reality versus Expectations
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Global lithium supply & stock adjusted demand model 2014-2025 Exhibit: Global lithium supply & demand model 2014-2025
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700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
1,500,000
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2014-2025 Global Lithium Supply & Stock Adjusted Demand Model (LCE, ton)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand-Stock Adjusted
100,000
300,000
500,000
700,000
900,000
1,100,000
1,300,000
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2014-2025 Global Lithium Supply & Demand Model (LCE, ton)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
5
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research Estimates
Exhibit: Estimates for hard-rock lithium capacity expansion globally, 2009-2025 (ktons, LCE)
2.3 A Closer Look at Spodumene Supply & Hard-rock Convertors
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global Hard-rock Lithium Capacity Estimates 2009-2025 (tons, LCE) Jiangxi-Yichun
Ning Du-Heyuan
Aba-Maerkang
Aba-Maerkang Dang Ba
Ganzi-Cuola
Ganzi-Jia Ji Ka
Aba-Guan Yin Qiao
Aba-Li Jia Gou
Grota do Cirilo
Mibra
Brazil-USGS
Portugal-USGS
Manono/Kitotolo
Arcadia
Bikita
Whabouchi
Quebec Lithium
Mt Holland-Earl Grey
Wodgina
Bald Hill
Pilgangoora-AJM
Pilgangoora-PLS
MT Marion
MT Cattlin
Greenbushes
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research Estimates
Exhibit: Estimates for hard-rock lithium production globally, 2009-2025 (ktons, LCE)
2.3 A Closer Look at Spodumene Supply & Hard-rock Convertors
0
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200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global Hard-rock Lithium Production Estimates 2009-2025 (tons, LCE) Jiangxi-Yichun
Ning Du-Heyuan
Aba-Maerkang
Aba-Maerkang Dang Ba
Ganzi-Cuola
Ganzi-Jia Ji Ka
Aba-Guan Yin Qiao
Aba-Li Jia Gou
Grota do Cirilo
Mibra
Brazil-USGS
San Jose
Portugal-USGS
Rubicon & Helikon
Manono/Kitotolo
Arcadia
Bikita
Whabouchi
Rose Tantalum-Lithium
Quebec Lithium
Mt Holland-Earl Grey
Wodgina
Bald Hill
Pilgangoora-AJM
Pilgangoora-PLS
MT Marion
MT Cattlin
Greenbushes
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
7
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Sources: China Lithium Association, Minmetals Securities Research
Sources: Company Reports, Minmetals Securities Research
Exhibit: China base lithium chemicals output increased to ~180k tons in 2018
Exhibit: Majority of hard-rock capacity additions still expected to come from WA
Sources: Asian Metals, Minmetals Securities Research
Sources: Company Reports, Minmetals Securities Research
Exhibit: Hyrdroxide and carbonate output rose significantly since 18Q4
Exhibit: WA expected to contribute most to the effective output
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China Carbonate & Hydroxide Production (kt, product tons)
Battery Grade Carbonate Technical Grade Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide Mono
8
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
China Base Lithium Product Supply (kt, Product tons)
Lithium Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide Lithium Chloride
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global New Spodumene Capacity 2016-2025
Australia (kton) Canada (kton) Brazil (Kton)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global New Spodumene Output 2016-2025
Australia (kton) Canada (kton) Brazil (kton)
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2.3 A Closer Look at Spodumene Supply & Hard-rock Convertors
Converting capacity is sufficient and significant increase expected 2019-2020, but not materially good news for miners
The production of convertor is flexible in nature, easily shifting to tolling or purification when facing cost pressure
That is one crucial reason why chemical S&D tends to be roughly balanced compared to lithium mine S&D
2018 was tough for spodumene convertors, and the cost/cash flow pressure has spread to upstream miners in 2019
Not surprise if temporary shutdowns and integrations occurred in WA in 2nd 2019
Exhibit: Estimates of effective lithium extraction/processing capacity in China, 2009-2025
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Adjusted Effective Capacity Estimates 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Spodumene Convertor (kt, LCE) 93 125 214 321 566 638 668 688 718 718
Brine (kt, LCE) 50 55 78 116 145 145 145 145 145 145
Lepidolite Convertor (kt, LCE) 6 52 127 125 142 142 142 142 142 142
Purification/Recycling (kt, LCE) 22 47 60 76 86 86 86 94 94 94
Total (kt, LCE) 172 279 479 638 940 1,012 1,042 1,070 1,100 1,100
Increase (kt,LCE) 107 200 159 302 72 30 28 30 -
Spodumene Concentrate Equiv. (kt, LCE) 729 979 1,670 2,503 4,417 4,979 5,213 5,369 5,603 5,603
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
9
珍惜有限 创造无限
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Hard-rock converting can hardly be classified as a concentrated market Exhibit: Concentrate theoretically needed by converting capacity in China is huge
Exhibit: Due to capex been spent, sharp capacity additions expected in 2020 Exhibit: Majority of the capacity added expected to come from hard-rock converting
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
How Much Spodumene Needed If Nominal Capacity Turns Into
Effective(kton, LCE)
Spodumene Concentrate Equivalent
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
China Lithium Extraction Capacity By Type(k tons,LCE)
Spodumene Convertor Brine lepidolite Convertor Purification/Recycling
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
China Lithium Extraction Capacity Structure (k tons, LCE)
Top 10 Hard-rock Convertor Other Hard-rock Convertor
Other Lithium Extraction Capacity
51%
36%
28%32%
34% 35% 34% 33%35% 35%
56%
44%42%
46%
52% 51%49% 50%
51% 51%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Top 5 & Top 10 Convertor/ Total Lithium Extraction Capacity
Capacity Proportion of Top 5 ConvertorCapacty Proportion of Top 10 Convertor
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Most of the lepidolite converting capacity is located in Yichuan, Jiangxi Exhibit: Jiangte and Nanshi are the two leading and proven lepidolite producers
2.4 Lepidolite Remains A Marginal Yet Effective Supply
We believe the lithium production from lepidolite has turned into effective supply in 2018
Lepidolite concentrate output supports 25-40 kton LCE before 2020. However, high grade (+3.5%) product is rare
The lepidolite converting capacity already totalled ~125 kton for top 8 producers in 2019
Still economically make sense at a carbonate price ~$8300/t, meeting the demand of LFP & LMO
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Lepidolite Capacity By Supplier (Kton, LCE)
JSEM(Jiangte) Nanshi Lithium Hzone(Hezong)
Yongxing Panzhihua Seven-Stars Hai Hui
Dowstone Feiyu New Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Total Capacity of Major Lepidolite Convertors(kton,LCE)
Lepidolite Convertor Capacity
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research Estimates
Exhibit: Estimates for lithium brine capacity additions globally, 2009-2025 (k tons, LCE)
2.5 Qinghai Brine: From Marginal To Main Strain
0
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200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global Lithium Brine Capacity Estimates 2009-2025 (tons, LCE) Tibet Guoneng-Jiezechaka & LongmucuoJintai -Balunmahai
Bohua-Dachadan
Xinghua-Dachadan
Minmetals-Yiliping
Zangge-Chaerhan
Lanke Lithium-Qarhan
Qinghai HXR-West Taijinaier
CITIC Guoan-West Taijinaier
East Taijinaier-New
East Taijinaier-Old
Zhabuye
Comibol-Uyuni
Maricunga JV
ERAMET-Centenario Ratones
ILC-Mariana
Tibet Summit-SDLA
Neo Lithium-3Q
Argosy-Rincón
Orocobre-Olaroz
LAC-Cauchari
Galaxy-Sal de Vida
Livent-Hombre Muerto
Albemarle-Atacama+Silver Peak
SQM-Atacama
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research Estimates
Exhibit: Estimates for lithium brine production globally, 2009-2025; Qinghai expected to be a significant source after South American brine
2.5 Qinghai Brine: From Marginal To Main Strain
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global Lithium Brine Production Estimates 2009-2025 (tons, LCE) Tibet Guoneng-Jiezechaka & LongmucuoJintai -Balunmahai
Bohua-Dachadan
Xinghua-Dachadan
Minmetals-Yiliping
Zangge-Chaerhan
Lanke Lithium-Qarhan
Qinghai HXR-West Taijinaier
CITIC Guoan-West Taijinaier
East Taijinaier-New
East Taijinaier-Old
Zhabuye
Comibol-Uyuni
Maricunga JV
ERAMET-Centenario Ratones
ILC-Mariana
Tibet Summit-SDLA
Neo Lithium-3Q
Argosy-Rincón
Orocobre-Olaroz
LAC-Cauchari
Galaxy-Sal de Vida
Livent-Hombre Muerto
Albemarle-Atacama+Silver Peak
SQM-Atacama
13
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Annual capacity additions of China and ex-China lithium brine assets Exhibit: In Qinghai, total capacity utilization rate also rose significantly since 2015
2.5 Qinghai Brine: From Marginal To Main Strain
China brine production was 10.5kt in 2015, 39.7kt in 2018, and 52.7kt estimated in 2019
Lower cost than hard-rock: processing largely optimized, and brine supplied after potash production
Significant improvements in product quality, with battery grade carbonate being produced directly
Off-spec products also entered LIB supply chain after further processing by professional purification players
Since 2018, Qinghai producers started to impact and even drive China spot pricing on certain occasions
0
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Annual Capacity Additions of Brine-Adj. for Effective Capacity
Annual Capacity Additions of China Brine Assets (kt, LCE)
Annual Capacity Additions of ex-China Brine Assets (kt, LCE)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
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80%
0
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E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
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E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
Total Capacity/Output Estimates of China Brine
Total Capacity of Qinghai/Tibet Brine (tons, LCE)Total Production of Qinghai/Tibet Brine (tons, LCE)Capacity Utilization Rate (%)
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Google Map, Company Reports
Exhibit: Since 2018, Qinghai lithium brine suppliers have become a non-negligible force in the carbonate supply chain
15
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Bagged carbonate products stockpiled adjacent to East Taijinaier facility
Exhibit: Capacity additions by each supplier in Qinghai & Tibet 2009-2025
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: Site visit to Qarhan Salt Lake, another leading producer in Qinghai
Exhibit: Ramping up of lithium brine production in Qinghai 2009-2025
0
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40,000
60,000
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100,000
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18
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19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
Production Estimates of China Brine by Company (tons, LCE)
Zhabuye-Tibet Mineral Development East Taijinaier-OldEast Taijinaier-New West Taijinaier-CITIC Guoan LithiumWest Taijinaier-Qinghai HXR Lithium Tech Qarhan-Lanke LithiumChaerhan-Zangge Lithium Yiliping-MinmetalsDachadan-Xinghua Dachadan-BohuaBalunmahai-Jintai
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
Capacity Estimates of China Brine by Company (tons, LCE)
Zhabuye-Tibet Mineral Development East Taijinaier-OldEast Taijinaier-New West Taijinaier-CITIC Guoan LithiumWest Taijinaier-Qinghai HXR Lithium Tech Qarhan-Lanke LithiumChaerhan-Zangge Lithium Yiliping-MinmetalsDachadan-Xinghua Dachadan-BohuaBalunmahai-Jintai
16
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2.6 Demand: Shifting to Product Driven and Eyes on Ex-China Market
Story of 2016-2017 “as long as cathode & battery capacity keeps expanding, lithium demand stays robust”
However, the key driver of lithium demand has returned to OEMs in 2018, as China EV battery re-shuffled
A concentrated battery market adds pressure for the upstream, but promises healthier demand growth in the long-run
The future China EV market will shift to product driven, a huge but necessary challenge for OEMs
Meanwhile, Europe EV market and its battery supply-chain is about to take off
Exhibit: 2015 EV Battery assembling volume is dominated in light BEV buses
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB
Exhibit: However in 2019, BEV passenger vehicle has taken the majority share
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB
2. Key Indications From Our Lithium S&D Model: Dive Into The Market Structure
40%
23%
13%
17%
6%22%
58%
12%
6%3.0%
2015 China EV Production & EV Battery Assembling Volume Structure
BEV Passenger Vehicles
BEV Buses
BEV Commercial Vehicles
PHEV Passenger Vehicles
PHEV Buses
EV Production Structure
EV Battery Production Structure
73%
5%
2%
20%
1%
71%
17%
6%6% 0.5%
Jan-Apr 2019 China EV Production & EV Battery Assembling Volume Structure
BEV Passenger Vehicles
BEV Buses
BEV Commercial Vehicles
PHEV Passenger Vehicles
PHEV Buses
EV Production Structure
EV Battery Production Structure
17
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Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB
Exhibit: 2011-2019YTD China EV Battery assembling achieved significant growth Exhibit: Jan 2015-April 2019 Monthly EV Battery assembling volume in China
Exhibit: 2011-2019YTD, China total EV production growth remained fast-paced Exhibit: Monthly EV production in China demonstrated strong seasonality
127%
36%
397%334%
31%58% 50% 61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
0
20
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60
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100
120
140
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20
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A
20
18
A
20
19
.1-4
Annual Production of EV in China (BEV+PHEV, Unit: 10k)
Annual EV Assembling Volume(10k) Yoy (%)
80%
30%
57%
117%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
Annual EV Battery Assembling Volume in China (MWH)
EV Battery Assembling Volume (MWH) Yoy (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly Production of EV in China (BEV+PHEV, Unit: 10k)
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly EV Battery Assembling Volume in China (MWH)
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
18
珍惜有限 创造无限
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, GGIB
Exhibit: Since 2015, the market concentration kept rising in China’s LIB market Exhibit: EV demand ex-China, especially from Europe is about to take off
Exhibit: 2019YTD, CATL and BYD combined achieved a dominant share ~80% Exhibit: By comparison, the 2016 EV battery market is much more diverse in China
46%
30%
4%
2019.1-4 China NCM & LFP Battery Assembling Volume Market Share
CATL BYD
Guoxuan Farasis
Lishen CALB
BAK EVE
DFD JEVE
CENAT Great Power
Linkdata ANC
Soundon Others
22%
26%
7%
32%
2016 China EV Battery Assembling Volume Market Share
CATL
BYD
Guoxuan
Farasis
EVE
BAK
A123
Lishen
National Battery
First Battery
Others
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Market Share of Top 3 EV Battery Suppliers in China
LFP CR3 NCM CR3 Total EV Battery CR3
38%
67% 66%62% 64% 63%
60%57%
54% 52%49% 48%62%
33% 34%38% 36% 37%
40%43%
46% 48%51% 52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
Lithium Demand From Global EV
China EV Li Demand (t LCE) ROW EV Li Demand (t LCE)
Share China EV Li Demand (%) Share ROW EV Li Demand (%)
19
珍惜有限 创造无限
3. Different Logics between China Spot & Global Contract Market
China lithium market turned more like a Commodity market while the ex-China remains Specialty Chemical
Its lithium supply structure is more diversified and sophisticated, while buyers also more price sensitive
However, current stage lithium spot price in China is still the global lithium market leading indicator
The price difference will largely converge, especially when China lithium producers breaking into global supply-chain
Exhibit: Since 2H 2018, the ex-China lithium carbonate price enjoys a premium over China domestic price
Sources: Fastmarkets MB, Benchmark Minerals, Asian Metals, Bloomberg, Minmetals Securities Research
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Global Lithium Carbonate Price 2013-2019 YTD, USD/ton
Lithium Carbonate, SA FOB Lithium Carbonate, NA CIF Lithium Carbonate, Asia CIF
Lithium Carbonate, EU CIF Lithium Carbonate 99%, CN Lithium Carbonate 99.5%, CN
20
珍惜有限 创造无限
Sources: China Custom, Bloomberg, Minmetals Securities Research Sources: China Custom, Bloomberg, Minmetals Securities Research
Sources: Company Reports, Minmetals Securities Research Sources: Company Reports, Minmetals Securities Research
Exhibit: Price premium overseas strengthened the incentive to export carbonate Exhibit: Hydroxide export increased significantly not only from ALB and Livent
Exhibit: 38% of Ganfeng Lithium’s revenue has been from overseas in 2018 Exhibit: Tianqi Lithium’s overseas sales also increased to 17% in 2018
77% 77% 80% 84%
62%
23% 23% 20% 16%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue Breakdown by Geographic-Ganfeng Lithium
GFL Domestic Sales GFL Overseas Sales
80% 85% 90% 92%83%
20% 15% 10% 8%17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Revenue Breakdown by Geographic-Tianqi Lithium
TQC Domestic Sales TQC Overseas Sales
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-07
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
20
19
-04
The Increase of China Lithium Carbonate Export
Carbonate Export (t) Avg. Carbonate Export Price ($/t)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-07
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
20
19
-04
The Increase of China Lilthium Hydroxide Export
Hydroxide Export (t) Avg. Hydroxide Export Price ($/t)
21
珍惜有限 创造无限
Capital Intensity & Construction Period, Observations from 68 Samples
The avg. capital intensity for hard-rock lithium mine is US$ 4305/t LCE globally
The avg. capital intensity for hard-rock convertor is US$ 3720/t LCE in China, and ~US$ 13,729 / t LCE in WA
The avg. capital intensity for lithium brine is US$ 17,587/t LCE, and US$ 19,755/t LCE if excludes SQM
The avg. construction period for hard-rock mine is ~15mons, ~ 20mons for convertor, and ~20mons for brine
However, the ramping-up period for brine projects could be much lengthier from experience in SA and Qinghai
4. Why Brine Projects Could Hardly Replace Hard-rock Projects
Exhibit: Majority of the new hard-rock convertor designed is bigger than 10k tpa
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: The designed capacity for brine expansion & new projects also gets larger
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
X-Axis:Designed Capacity, tpa LCE
Y-Axis:Capex,US$ Mn
Bubble:CapexIntensity, US$/tpa LCE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
X-Axis:Designed Capacity, tpa LCE
Y-Axis:Capex,US$ Mn
Bubble:CapexIntensity, US$/tpa LCE
22
珍惜有限 创造无限
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: The capital intensity of global lithium brine projects Exhibit: The construction period for hard-rock mine, convertor and brine projects
Exhibit: The avg. capital intensity of hard-rock green field & brown field projects Exhibit: The avg. capital intensity of converting capacity in and outside of China
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Gre
en
bu
sh
es P
ha
se
2
Gre
en
bu
sh
es P
ha
se
3
Pilg
an
go
ora
Ph
ase
1
Pilg
an
go
ora
Ph
ase
2
Altu
ra P
ha
se
1
Altu
ra P
ha
se
2
Ba
ld H
ill P
ha
se
1
Mt
Ca
ttlin
Old
Mt
Ca
ttlin
Re
bo
ot
Wo
dg
ina
To
tal
Mt
Ho
lla
nd
Wh
ab
ou
ch
i
La
Co
rne
Accu
mu
late
d
Gro
ta d
o C
irilo
Mib
ra M
ine
Ph
ase
1
Mib
ra M
ine
Ph
ase
2
Pie
dm
on
t
Jia
jika-1
Jia
jika-2
Capital Intensity of Hard-rock Lithium Mine (US $/t LCE)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Pro
ject 0
1
Pro
ject 0
2
Pro
ject 0
3
Pro
ject 0
4
Pro
ject 0
5
Pro
ject 0
6
Pro
ject 0
7
Pro
ject 0
8
Pro
ject 0
9
Pro
ject 1
0
Pro
ject 1
1
Pro
ject 1
2
Pro
ject 1
3
Pro
ject 1
4
Pro
ject 1
5
Pro
ject 1
6
Pro
ject 1
7
Pro
ject 1
8
Pro
ject 1
9
Pro
ject 2
0
Pro
ject 2
1
Pro
ject 2
2
Pro
ject 2
3
Capex Intensity of Global Hard-rock Lithium Converting Capacity (US$/t LCE)
Two Leading Producers
Overseas Projects
China Domestic Projects
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Ata
ca
ma
Exp
an
sio
n 1
Ata
ca
ma
Exp
an
sio
n 2
Ata
ca
ma
Exp
an
sio
n 3
La
Ne
gra
Ph
ase
2
La
Ne
gra
Ph
ase
3
Fe
nix
Ph
ase
1&
2
Fe
nix
Ph
ase 3
&4
Ola
roz P
ha
se
1
Ola
roz P
ha
se
2
Ca
uch
ari
-Ola
roz
Sa
l de
Vid
a
Ma
ria
na
Tre
s Q
ue
bra
da
s
Pa
sto
s G
ran
de
s
Ma
ricu
ng
a
Qa
rha
n L
an
ke
Ph
ase
2
Qa
rha
n B
YD
JV
Za
ng
ge
Ph
ase
1
Yilip
ing
Ph
ase
1
Ea
st T
aiji
na
ier
Ph
ase
1
Jin
tai-
Exp
an
sio
n 1
Jin
tai-
Expa
nsio
n 2
Capex Intensity of Global Lithium Brine Projects (US $/t LCE)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Convert
or
Pro
ject
01
Convert
or
Pro
ject
02
Convert
or
Pro
ject
03
Convert
or
Pro
ject
04
Convert
or
Pro
ject
05
Convert
or
Pro
ject
06
Convert
or
Pro
ject
07
Convert
or
Pro
ject
08
Convert
or
Pro
ject
09
Convert
or
Pro
ject
10
Convert
or
Pro
ject
11
Convert
or
Pro
ject
12
Convert
or
Pro
ject
13
Convert
or
Pro
ject
14
Convert
or
Pro
ject
15
Convert
or
Pro
ject
16
Convert
or
Pro
ject
17
Convert
or
Pro
ject
18
Convert
or
Pro
ject
19
Convert
or
Pro
ject
20
Convert
or
Pro
ject
21
Gre
enbush
es
Phase
2G
reenbush
es
Phase
3P
ilgangoora
Phase
1P
ilgangoora
Phase
2A
ltura
Phase
1A
ltura
Phase
2B
ald
Hill
Phase
1M
t Marion
Mt C
attlin
Old
Mt C
attlin
Reboot
Wodgin
a T
ota
lM
t Holla
nd
Whabouchi
La C
orn
e R
eboot
Mib
ra M
ine P
hase
1P
iedm
ont
Ata
cam
a E
xpansi
on 1
La N
egra
Phase 2
Fenix
Phase
1&
2O
laro
z P
hase
1O
laro
z P
hase
2C
auchari-O
laro
zT
res
Quebra
das
Pasto
s G
randes
Maricunga
Qarh
an L
anke P
hase
2Jin
tai-E
xpansi
on 1
Jin
tai-E
xpansio
n 2
Construction Period For Convertor, Hard-rock Mine and Brine (mon)
23
珍惜有限 创造无限
Future lithium cost support likely to be set by high cost non-integrated hard-rock producers
Supports from production cost for carbonate price is weakening in 2019, as spodumene cost/price falls
Leading convertors are investing in Lithium Triangle to diversify asset portfolio and strengthen cost competitiveness
While low-cost leading brine producers is betting on WA hard-rock for higher quality lithium hydroxide
“High Quality Resources” and “The Combination of Resources & Techniques” both matter in lithium industry
Which is safer to invest for the long-run? Hard-rock, integrated hard-rock, or brine? Or lithium extraction technologies?
5. Understanding The Lithium Chemical Cost Curve
Exhibit: Cost curve supports carbonate price held 70-80k RMB/t range in 2018
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
Exhibit: The cost support likely to drop to ~60k RMB/t in 2019 for carbonate
Sources: Minmetals Securities Research, Company Reports
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 315 350 385 420 455 490
Cumulative Lithium Capacity in 2018, LCE
Global Lithium Carbonate Cost Curve in 2018, Non-integrated (RMB/t LCE, VAT Incl.)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
0 35 70 105 140 175 210 245 280 315 350 385 420 455 490 525 560
Cumulative Lithium Capacity in 2019, kt LCE
Global Lithium Carbonate Cost Curve in 2019, Non-integrated (RMB/t LCE, VAT Incl.)
24
珍惜有限 创造无限
1. If supply grows faster than our expectation while the EV demand grows delays, lithium price could face additional pressure
2. Breakthroughs and commercialization of new battery technologies, such as EV battery shifting to Fuel Cell on large scale
3. The risks related to operate lithium mines and converting capacities overseas
4. Risks related to global economy fundamentals and geopolitical issues
Risk Factors
25
珍惜有限 创造无限
Thank you
Shenzhen
48F, RongChao Trade Center, Jintian Rd,
Futian Center District, Shenzhen, China 518035
Beijing
Room 603, Building 4, Interwest International
Center, No. 9 Southern Rd, Capital Gym,
Haidian, Bejing, China 100037
Minmetals Securities Co., Ltd.
Equity Research
Shanghai
Yujing International Tower B, No. 69 Dongfang
Rd, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China
200120
Jingwen Sun
Analyst
SAC Reg. No.: S0950519050001
Nonferrous Metals Research
珍惜有限 创造无限
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27
珍惜有限 创造无限
再探锂供需的脉搏证券研究报告 2019/06/06
2019年第11届全球锂供给与市场峰会,智利圣地亚哥
分析师:孙景文
职业证书编号:S0950519050001邮箱:[email protected]
五矿证券研究所有色金属行业研究
珍惜有限 创造无限
Contents 目录
01
03
02
04
锂市场回顾: 我们目前处于行业的什么阶段?
供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
中国锂盐现货市场与海外长协市场的逻辑有何不同?
为何说盐湖提锂难以完全取代矿石提锂?
05 全球锂盐成本曲线给我们的启示
29
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源:亚洲金属网,五矿证券研究所
图:2015-2019YTD 中国锂原料供给经历了三大瓶颈期,同期锂需求由终端驱动转向了中游产能驱动、再回归到终端驱动,并由“政策市”转向“消费市”
1. 锂市场回顾: 我们目前处于行业的什么阶段?
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2015-2019YTD中国碳酸锂&氢氧化锂现货市场回顾
工业级碳酸锂(万元/吨含税) 电池级碳酸锂(万元/吨含税)
工业级氢氧化锂(万元/吨含税) 电池级氢氧化锂(万元/吨含税)
锂精矿供给实质性短缺期时期
锂化工产能实质性短缺时期
氢氧化锂等锂深加工产品享有高溢
价,但很快遭遇挤压收窄
在丰厚的激励下,整车、尤其6-8米纯电动客车
的放量,产业链终端自上而下策动了锂需求
正极材料与动力电池的产能扩张在2017年集
中落地,中游的大幅扩能以及加库存极大拉
动了锂原料需求,中游需求大于终端需求 动力电池龙头崛起(集中度显著提升)、宏
观去杠杆、叠加以沃特玛为例的事件,锂需
求的驱动力由中游回归终端整车
30
珍惜有限 创造无限
2.供需模型的核心结论:结构重于总量
2.1 即期判断:
2018年回顾:全球锂矿产量约37万吨碳酸锂当量(LCE),锂盐产量约28万吨LCE,库存调整后的全球锂需求为27万吨LCE
2017-2019年全球锂矿的供给过剩在显著加剧,但在供需模型中我们视锂矿端的供给为名义供给
2018年全球锂盐(锂化工)供需基本维持平衡,预计至2020年仅有小幅过剩
自2018年、2019年,全球锂矿供给显著超出了全球锂盐供给,两个本应紧密相连环节的产量增幅出现了分歧
图: 2014-2020年全球锂矿供给、锂化工供给、库存调整需求的供需平衡预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
图: 2014-2020年全球锂矿供给、锂化工供给、未经库存调整需求的供需平衡预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
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600kt
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E
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E
2014-2020 年锂矿、锂盐、经库存调整后的锂需求的短期预测(吨,LCE)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand-Stock Adjusted
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2014-2020 年锂矿、锂盐、未经库存调整的锂需求的短期预测(吨,LCE)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand
31
珍惜有限 创造无限
2.2 所引申的长期问题?
我们到底应该更关注哪个环节的供给?锂矿,还是锂盐?
全球锂矿、全球锂盐产量增幅之间的差异将持续存在吗?未来二者之间将如何演绎?
此外,为什么在这个快速成长的市场中我们强调采用“经库存调整后的锂需求”?
未来何时将迎来全球锂供需关系的再一次转折?“价格低迷”与“积极预期”的反复博弈
图: 2014-2025年全球锂矿供给、锂盐供给与经库存调整的锂需求的长期预测 图: 2014-2025年全球锂矿供给、锂盐供给与未经库存调整的锂需求的长期预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
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2014-2025 年全球锂矿、锂盐、经库存调整后锂需求的长期测算(吨,LCE)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand-Stock Adjusted
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E
2014-2025 年全球锂矿、锂盐、锂需求长期测算(吨,LCE)
Global Lithium Mine Effective Supply Global Lithium Chemical Supply
Global End-use Demand
32
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 五矿证券研究所预测
图: 根据我们对全球45个硬岩锂矿资产的跟踪,2009年-2025年全球硬岩锂矿的总产能或由不及9万吨增长至近79万吨碳酸锂当量
2.3 全球锂精矿供给&中国锂化工供给
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2009-2025年全球矿石提锂产能扩张预测(吨,碳酸锂当量) Jiangxi-Yichun
Ning Du-Heyuan
Aba-Maerkang
Aba-Maerkang Dang Ba
Ganzi-Cuola
Ganzi-Jia Ji Ka
Aba-Guan Yin Qiao
Aba-Li Jia Gou
Grota do Cirilo
Mibra
Brazil-USGS
Portugal-USGS
Manono/Kitotolo
Arcadia
Bikita
Whabouchi
Quebec Lithium
Mt Holland-Earl Grey
Wodgina
Bald Hill
Pilgangoora-AJM
Pilgangoora-PLS
MT Marion
MT Cattlin
Greenbushes
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
33
珍惜有限 创造无限
图:2009年-2025年全球硬岩锂矿的总产量或由4万吨增长至60万吨碳酸锂当量
2.3 全球锂精矿供给&中国锂化工供给
资料来源: 五矿证券研究所预测
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2009-2025年全球矿石提锂产量扩张预测 (吨,碳酸锂当量) Jiangxi-Yichun
Ning Du-Heyuan
Aba-Maerkang
Aba-Maerkang Dang Ba
Ganzi-Cuola
Ganzi-Jia Ji Ka
Aba-Guan Yin Qiao
Aba-Li Jia Gou
Grota do Cirilo
Mibra
Brazil-USGS
San Jose
Portugal-USGS
Rubicon & Helikon
Manono/Kitotolo
Arcadia
Bikita
Whabouchi
Rose Tantalum-Lithium
Quebec Lithium
Mt Holland-Earl Grey
Wodgina
Bald Hill
Pilgangoora-AJM
Pilgangoora-PLS
MT Marion
MT Cattlin
Greenbushes
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
34
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 锂业分会, 五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 各公司公告, 五矿证券研究所预测
图: 2018年中国基础锂盐产量总计约18万吨LCE,其中未扣减重复计算
图: 2016-2025年绝大部分的全球新增锂矿产能来自西澳,部分来自加拿大和巴西
资料来源: 亚洲金属网, 五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 各公司公告, 五矿证券研究所预测
图:2018年末至2019年初中国碳酸锂、氢氧化锂产量环比增长显著,价格承压
图: 因经济性,2016-2025年大部分的新增硬岩锂矿产量来自西澳,巴西形成补充
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China Carbonate & Hydroxide Production (kt, product tons)
Battery Grade Carbonate Technical Grade Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide Mono
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China Base Lithium Product Supply (kt, Product tons)
Lithium Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide Lithium Chloride
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2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global New Spodumene Capacity 2016-2025
Australia (kton) Canada (kton) Brazil (Kton)
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500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Global New Spodumene Output 2016-2025
Australia (kton) Canada (kton) Brazil (kton)
珍惜有限 创造无限
2.3 全球锂精矿供给&中国锂化工供给
根据我们对国内73个项目的研究,2019-2020年锂化工产能将显著增长,但这对海外上游矿商并不一定是实质性利好
中国锂盐厂的生产灵活,若盈利/资金承压将延迟新产能的投产,建成产能亦可转向代工、或转为提纯产线
这也是为何锂盐市场难以持续显著过剩的核心原因;长期而言,我们认为锂盐厂最终将走向“大规模、少家数”
2018年国内非一体化的锂盐厂的盈利、现金流已显著承压,但2019年成本和资金压力将向上传导至海外锂矿供应商
行业快速分化,整合加剧;已看到西澳之外的硬岩锂矿停产,不排除2019下半年甚至出现澳矿停产的情形
表:2009-2025年中国矿石提锂、盐湖提锂、云母提锂以及提纯产线的有效产能测算
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
经调整后的有效产能预测 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
锂辉石精矿-矿石提锂(千吨,LCE) 93 125 214 321 566 638 668 688 718 718
盐湖提锂(千吨,LCE) 50 55 78 116 145 145 145 145 145 145
云母提锂(千吨,LCE) 6 52 127 125 142 142 142 142 142 142
提纯/循环回收(千吨,LCE) 22 47 60 76 86 86 86 94 94 94
产能合计(千吨,LCE) 172 279 479 638 940 1,012 1,042 1,070 1,100 1,100
产能增幅 (千吨,LCE) 107 200 159 302 72 30 28 30 -
理论对应年需锂辉石精矿(千吨,LCE) 729 979 1,670 2,503 4,417 4,979 5,213 5,369 5,603 5,603
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
36
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 从产能占比来看,锂化工环节目前并非一个高集中度的行业,但未来或将洗牌 图: 拟投矿石提锂的精矿需求巨大,但仅仅停留在理论层面,矿企不应用作决策
图: 考虑到建成产能的投放,预计2019-2020年中国提锂总产能仍将快速增长 图: 尽管盐湖提锂持续扩能,未来中国大部分新建成的提锂产能仍将来自矿石提锂
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
0
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5000
6000
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
中国矿石提锂总产能对应上游锂精矿(千吨,实物吨)
潜在需要锂精矿
51%
36%
28%32%
34% 35% 34% 33%35% 35%
56%
44%42%
46%
52% 51%49% 50%
51% 51%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
头部矿石提锂占中国各路径提锂总产能的比例
Capacity Proportion of Top 5 ConvertorCapacty Proportion of Top 10 Convertor
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1,000
1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
中国提锂产能的结构划分(千吨,碳酸锂当量)
前十大锂辉石矿石提锂 其余锂辉石矿石提锂 其余的各类提锂产能
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400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
中国各类型的提锂产能汇总(千吨,LCE)
锂辉石提锂 盐湖卤水提锂 锂云母提锂 提纯/回收产线
37
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 由于资源供应的束缚,云母提锂产能目前主要集中在江西宜春地区 图: 江特银锂与南氏是最引人瞩目的两大云母提锂企业,前者工艺成熟后者高效
2.4 云母提锂是边际供给,但却是有效供给
打消质疑,历经多轮技改和工业化尝试,云母提锂自2018年以来逐步成为有效供给
2020年前,预期宜春云母精矿可支撑2.5-4万吨的碳酸锂产量,高品位(>3.5%)锂云母精矿稀缺,主要来自宜春钽铌矿
云母提锂的名义产能虚高,2019年前八大厂商的碳酸锂产能合计高达12.5万吨,关注江特、南氏、飞宇、道氏
由于原料端采购价格较低,云母提锂在~6.3万元/吨的碳酸锂价格被证明仍然具备经济性
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
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20
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160
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
中国云母提锂头部企业的产能规划(千吨,碳酸锂当量)
JSEM(Jiangte) Nanshi Lithium Hzone(Hezong)
Yongxing Panzhihua Seven-Stars Hai Hui
Dowstone Feiyu New Energy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
中国云母提锂产能统计
云母提锂总产能(千吨,LCE)
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珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 五矿证券研究所预测
图: 2009-2025年全球卤水提锂的新增产能主要来自智利、阿根廷、中国青海(千吨,碳酸锂当量)
2.5 青海盐湖提锂:已是不可忽视的力量,逐步由“边际”步入“主流”
0
100,000
200,000
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2009-2025年全球盐湖提锂的产能扩张预测(吨,碳酸锂当量) Tibet Guoneng-Jiezechaka & LongmucuoJintai -Balunmahai
Bohua-Dachadan
Xinghua-Dachadan
Minmetals-Yiliping
Zangge-Chaerhan
Lanke Lithium-Qarhan
Qinghai HXR-West Taijinaier
CITIC Guoan-West Taijinaier
East Taijinaier-New
East Taijinaier-Old
Zhabuye
Comibol-Uyuni
Maricunga JV
ERAMET-Centenario Ratones
ILC-Mariana
Tibet Summit-SDLA
Neo Lithium-3Q
Argosy-Rincón
Orocobre-Olaroz
LAC-Cauchari
Galaxy-Sal de Vida
Livent-Hombre Muerto
Albemarle-Atacama+Silver Peak
SQM-Atacama
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
39
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 五矿证券研究所预测
图: 2009-2025年全球卤水提锂产量预测模型,若说智利、阿根廷是供给阵营的“白马”,中国青海无疑是供给“黑马”
2.5 青海盐湖提锂:已是不可忽视的力量,逐步由“边际”步入“主流”
0
100000
200000
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2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2009-2025年全球盐湖提锂产量扩张预测(吨,碳酸锂当量) Tibet Guoneng-Jiezechaka & LongmucuoJintai -Balunmahai
Bohua-Dachadan
Xinghua-Dachadan
Minmetals-Yiliping
Zangge-Chaerhan
Lanke Lithium-Qarhan
Qinghai HXR-West Taijinaier
CITIC Guoan-West Taijinaier
East Taijinaier-New
East Taijinaier-Old
Zhabuye
Comibol-Uyuni
Maricunga JV
ERAMET-Centenario Ratones
ILC-Mariana
Tibet Summit-SDLA
Neo Lithium-3Q
Argosy-Rincón
Orocobre-Olaroz
LAC-Cauchari
Galaxy-Sal de Vida
Livent-Hombre Muerto
Albemarle-Atacama+Silver Peak
SQM-Atacama
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
40
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 2010-2025年中国盐湖提锂与海外盐湖提锂的年度产能扩张对比 图: 自2015年以来,青海盐湖提锂的总产能、总产量、产能利用率均显著提升
2.5 青海盐湖提锂:已是不可忽视的力量,逐步由“边际”步入“主流”
青海/西藏盐湖提锂的碳酸锂产量2015年仅约1万吨,2018年达到仅4万吨,预计2019年接近5.3万吨
由于工艺的定型和持续优化,同时高价环境刺激资本投入,2016-2017年以来青海盐湖提锂的总产量显著提升
同时我们关注到青海的碳酸锂品质正逐年优化,中信国安、东台锂资源的电池级产品已受到充分认可
由于低成本,青海的工业级产品也在专业提纯厂商的处理之后,间接切入国内动力电池供应链
自2018年以来,蓝科锂业等厂商的价格策略已成为影响国内工业级碳酸锂现货市场的重要边际影响因子
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
中国以及海外盐湖的年新增产能(吨,碳酸锂当量)
中国盐湖年新增产能(吨,碳酸锂当量)
全球其它区域盐湖的年新增产能(吨,碳酸锂当量)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
中国盐湖的总产能、总产量、产能利用率测算
青海/西藏盐湖总产能(吨,碳酸锂当量)青海/西藏盐湖总产量(吨,碳酸锂当量)产能利用率
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
41
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 各公司公告,Google Map,五矿证券研究所
图: 察尔汗、东台、西台、一里坪、大柴旦与巴伦马海是青海盐湖提锂的主产区,远期可关注大浪滩的开发
42
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 青海东台吉乃尔盐湖的提锂设施,已装袋堆放的电池级碳酸锂产品
图: 2009-2025年青海、西藏各大盐湖提锂企业的产能扩张路线图
图: 蓝科与藏格均在推进察尔汗盐湖提锂的产能建设,核心仍看老卤是否充裕
图: 2009-2025年青海、西藏各大盐湖提锂的产量释放预测,更看好老玩家
资料来源: 五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
中国各大盐湖提锂企业的产能扩张路线图(吨,碳酸锂当量)
Zhabuye-Tibet Mineral Development East Taijinaier-OldEast Taijinaier-New West Taijinaier-CITIC Guoan LithiumWest Taijinaier-Qinghai HXR Lithium Tech Qarhan-Lanke LithiumChaerhan-Zangge Lithium Yiliping-MinmetalsDachadan-Xinghua Dachadan-BohuaBalunmahai-Jintai
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
中国各大盐湖提锂企业的产量释放预测(吨,碳酸锂当量)
Zhabuye-Tibet Mineral Development East Taijinaier-OldEast Taijinaier-New West Taijinaier-CITIC Guoan LithiumWest Taijinaier-Qinghai HXR Lithium Tech Qarhan-Lanke LithiumChaerhan-Zangge Lithium Yiliping-MinmetalsDachadan-Xinghua Dachadan-BohuaBalunmahai-Jintai
43
珍惜有限 创造无限
2.6 新能源汽车锂需求: 正转向消费驱动
2016-2017年中国锂行业遵循简单的逻辑:“只要正极材料、动力电池产能持续扩张,需求与价格便将维持强劲”
但2018年动力电池市场“龙头集中”的趋势确立,锂需求由产业链的中游产能驱动、回归至终端产品驱动
高集中度的动力电池市场格局短期不利于上游原料(需求增速放缓),但长期增长将更加扎实和可持续
中国新能源汽车市场正在转向“消费驱动”,更大程度取决于具备竞争力的新能源车型的推出
与此同时,我们需高度关注欧洲新能源汽车市场及其动力电池产业链的崛起,各版本的“2025计划”正在落地
图: 2015年中国新能源车产量结构虽然多元,但58%的动力电池装机在纯电动客车图: 2019年1-4月中国新能源车产量、动力电池装机量均70%集中于纯电动乘用车
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
73%
5%
2%
20%
1%
71%
17%
6%6% 0.5%
2019年1-4月中国新能源汽车产量以及动力电池装机量结构
BEV Passenger Vehicles
BEV Buses
BEV Commercial Vehicles
PHEV Passenger Vehicles
PHEV Buses
新能源汽车产
量结构
动力电池装机
量结构
40%
23%
13%
17%
6%22%
58%
12%
6%3.0%
2015年中国新能源汽车产量以及动力电池装机量结构
BEV Passenger Vehicles
BEV Buses
BEV Commercial Vehicles
PHEV Passenger Vehicles
PHEV Buses
新能源汽车产
量结构
动力电池装机
量结构
2. 供需模型的背后:市场结构比供需结论更加重要
44
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
图: 2011-2019YTD,中国动力电池装机量同比快速增长,2019年仍维持高增长 图: 2015年以来中国动力电池的月度装机量同样展现出“前低后高”的季节性
图: 2011-2019YTD, 中国新能汽车市场总体维持快速增长 图: 2015-201904,中国新能源汽车产量的淡旺季显著,但2019年仍值得观察
127%
36%
397%334%
31%58% 50% 61%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
11
A
20
12
A
20
13
A
20
14
A
20
15
A
20
16
A
20
17
A
20
18
A
20
19
.1-4
中国新能源汽车产量(BEV+PHEV, 万辆)
Annual EV Assembling Volume(10k) Yoy (%)
80%
30%
57%
117%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
中国动力电池装机量(MWH)
EV Battery Assembling Volume (MWH) Yoy (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
中国新能源汽车月度产量(BEV+PHEV, 万辆)
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
中国新能源汽车月度装机量(MWH)
2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019.1-4
45
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 从三家动力电池龙头自2015年初以来的市占率可见行业集中度的快速提升 图: 着眼中长期,海外市场、尤其欧洲新能源汽车和动力电池产能的崛起不得不察
图: 2019年1-4月,CATL与BYD两家动力电池龙头占据了高达76%的市场份额 图: 相比之下,2016年中国动力电池市场格局相对分散,CALY与BYD合计不及50%
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 高工锂电,五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
22%
26%
7%
32%
2016年中国车载动力电池装机结构
CATL
BYD
Guoxuan
Farasis
EVE
BAK
A123
Lishen
National Battery
First Battery
Others
46%
30%
4%
2019年1-4月中国车载动力电池装机结构(三元+铁锂)
CATL BYD
Guoxuan Farasis
Lishen CALB
BAK EVE
DFD JEVE
CENAT Great Power
Linkdata ANC
Soundon Others
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
中国前三大领军动力电池厂商的市场占有率
LFP CR3 NCM CR3 Total EV Battery CR3
38%
67% 66%62% 64% 63%
60%57%
54% 52%49% 48%62%
33% 34%38% 36% 37%
40%43%
46% 48%51% 52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
E
20
20
E
20
21
E
20
22
E
20
23
E
20
24
E
20
25
E
全球车载动力电池的锂化合物需求
中国车载动力锂需求(吨,LCE) 海外车载动力锂需求(吨,LCE)
中国车载动力锂需求占比 海外车载动力锂需求占比
46
珍惜有限 创造无限
3. 中国锂盐现货市场与海外长协市场的逻辑有何不同?
中国锂盐市场近年来已变得更像一个“商品市场”,而海外市场延续了“精细化工品”的逻辑
中国锂化合物的供给结构更加多元,过去下游客户在原料采购上也更偏成本导向,导致高品质产品未能售出充分溢价
但我们认为,目前阶段中国锂盐的现货市场价格仍是全球锂盐市场的先行指标
国内外价差将持续收窄,中国头部锂盐供应商切入全球高端供应链将更加促成区域市场之间的融合
图: 2018下半年以来,中国锂盐现货价格出现了相对于海外市场的“折价”,但我们预期国内外价差终将收窄
资料来源: Fastmarkets MB, Benchmark Minerals, Asian Metals, Bloomberg, 五矿证券研究所
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Se
p-1
3
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Se
p-1
4
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Se
p-1
5
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Se
p-1
6
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Se
p-1
7
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Se
p-1
8
No
v-1
8
Ja
n-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
2013-2019YTD全球碳酸锂价格走势对比,美元/吨
碳酸锂,南美FOB 碳酸锂,北美CIF 碳酸锂,亚太CIF
碳酸锂,欧洲CIF 工业级碳酸锂中国出厂 电池级碳酸锂中国出厂
47
珍惜有限 创造无限
资料来源: 中国海关, Bloomberg, 五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 中国海关, Bloomberg, 五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 公司公告,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 公司公告, 五矿证券研究所
图: 海外市场的溢价也是刺激2018年中国碳酸锂出口大幅增加的原因之一 图: 中国氢氧化锂出口量的增长并不仅仅来自于雅保江锂和Livent南通工厂
图: 2018年赣锋锂业海外收入的占比已高达38%,相比2017年显著增长 图: 2018年天齐锂业海外收入的整体占比也已升至17%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-07
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
20
19
-04
2018年-2019YTD中国氢氧化锂的出口量显著增长
Hydroxide Export (t) Avg. Hydroxide Export Price ($/t)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
20
15
-01
20
15
-04
20
15
-07
20
15
-10
20
16
-01
20
16
-04
20
16
-07
20
16
-10
20
17
-01
20
17
-04
20
17
-07
20
17
-10
20
18
-01
20
18
-04
20
18
-07
20
18
-10
20
19
-01
20
19
-04
2018年-2019YTD中国碳酸锂的出口量显著增长
Carbonate Export (t) Avg. Carbonate Export Price ($/t)
77% 77% 80% 84%
62%
23% 23% 20% 16%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
赣锋锂业年度销售收入按市场区域的划分
GFL Domestic Sales GFL Overseas Sales
80% 85% 90% 92%83%
20% 15% 10% 8%17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
天齐锂业年度销售收入按市场区域的划分
TQC Domestic Sales TQC Overseas Sales
48
珍惜有限 创造无限
重点从资本开支强度、建设周期两方面分析
样本覆盖全球范围内23个锂辉石矿山、23个矿石提锂化工厂、22个盐湖提锂项目
全球锂辉石矿山的平均资本开支强度为US$ 4305/t LCE
中国锂化工厂的平均资本开支强度为US$ 3720/t LCE, 在西澳建厂的平均水平高达US$ 13,729 / t LCE
全球盐湖提锂的平均资本开支强度为US$ 17,587/t LCE, 除去SQM扩能之后的平均值为US$ 19,755/t LCE
全球锂辉石矿山的建设周期平均约15个月、锂化工厂约20个月、盐湖提锂约20个月,但盐湖产能的实际爬坡期更为漫长
4. 为何说盐湖提锂难以完全取代矿石提锂?
图: 目前新建设的锂化工厂产能大部分在年产2万吨级别,过去多为5000吨级 图: 同时卤水提锂的单体设计产能也较过往大幅提升,通常在年产2-2.5万吨级
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
X轴:设计产能, tpa LCE
Y轴:资本开支, US$ Mn
气泡大小:资本开支强度, US$/tpa LCE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
X轴:设计产能, tpa LCE
Y轴:资本开支, US$ Mn
气泡大小:资本开支强度, US$/tpa LCE
49
珍惜有限 创造无限
图: 全球盐湖提锂的平均资本开支强度,其中红色为扩能项目 图: 全球锂辉石矿山、锂化工厂、盐湖提锂的平均产能建设周期展示如下
图: 全球锂辉石矿山的平均单吨资本开支强度,其中红色为扩能或复产项目 图: 全球锂化工产能的瓶颈单吨资本开支强度,澳洲建厂的投入显著较高
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 各公司公告, 五矿证券研究所
资料来源: 各公司公告, 五矿证券研究所 资料来源: 各公司公告, 五矿证券研究所
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全球矿石提锂-锂化工产能的资本开支强度(US$/t LCE)
中国两大龙头企业
海外锂盐厂项目
中国锂盐厂项目
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全球锂辉石矿山、锂盐厂、盐湖提锂产能的建设周期(月)
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珍惜有限 创造无限
未来中长期的锂盐价格中枢或由“非一体化矿石提锂企业”的生产成本所决定
鉴于矿商锂精矿生产成本的优化、以及销售价格的回落,2019年锂盐价格的成本支撑正在弱化
国内矿石提锂龙头投资南美,以丰富资源类型、强化成本竞争力;海外盐湖锂龙头布局西澳,追求更高品质的氢氧化锂
锂行业重在“资源优势”(与其余矿产无异),但也重在“资源与工艺的巧妙结合”
行业整固期既是挑战也是契机,为头部锂供应商以及行业老玩家重整市场、扩大份额提供了窗口期
对于产业长期投资者而言,什么是更理想和稳健的投资标的?矿石、一体化矿石、卤水、还是黏土?或是提锂技术?
5. 全球碳酸锂成本曲线给我们的启示
图: 2018年全球锂化合物的现金成本支撑价格水平位于7-8万元/吨的区间 图: 2019年全球锂化合物的成本支撑或弱化至6万元/吨附近
资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测 资料来源: 各公司公告,五矿证券研究所预测
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2018年全球锂化工现金成本曲线,假设锂盐厂非一体化(元/吨,含增值税)
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Cumulative Lithium Capacity in 2019, kt LCE
2019年全球锂化工现金成本曲线,假设锂盐厂非一体化(元/吨,含增值税)
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珍惜有限 创造无限
1、若全球锂矿供给释放超预期、同时新能源汽车的推广低预期,将导致锂产品价格中枢的再度下滑;
2、若电池技术革新并产业化,导致国内外新能源汽车的技术路径发生显著更替、降低了动力电池及储能的锂单耗;
3、企业海外资产的潜在经营风险、法律风险等;
4、全球宏观经济基本面风险、以及地缘政治风险等。
风险提示
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珍惜有限 创造无限
Thank you
深圳
地址:深圳市福田中心区金田路4028号,荣超经贸中心48层邮编:518035
北京
地址:北京市海淀区首体南路9号,4号楼603邮编:100037
五矿证券研究所
上海
地址:上海市浦东新区东方路69号,裕景国际大厦B座,2703邮编:200120
分析师:孙景文
职业证书编号:S0950519050001邮箱:[email protected]
五矿证券研究所有色金属行业研究
珍惜有限 创造无限
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投资建议的评级标准 评级 说明
报告中投资建议所涉及的评级分为股票评级和行业评级(另有说明的除外)。评级标准为报告发布日后6到12个月内的相对市场表现,也即:以报告发布日后的6到12个月内的公司股价(或行业指数)相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的涨跌幅作为基准。其中:A股市场以沪深300指数为基准;香港市场以恒生指数为基准;美国市场以纳斯达克综合指数或标普500指数为基准。
股票评级
买入 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在20%及以上;
增持 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于5%~20%之间;
持有 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报介于-10%~5%之间;
卖出 预期个股相对同期相关证券市场代表性指数的回报在-10%及以下;
无评级 对于个股未来6个月的市场表现与基准指数相比无明确观点。
行业评级
看好 预期行业整体回报高于基准指数整体水平10%以上;
中性 预期行业整体回报介于基准指数整体水平-10%~10%之间;
看淡 预期行业整体回报低于基准指数整体水平-10%以下。
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