china 6.6 6.2 6.0 2.1 1.9 2.5 india 7.4 7.6 7.8 3.8 4.0 4 ... · corporate spreads have become...

In the US, activity has been buoyant so far, largely thanks to tax cuts For the foreseeable period, a landing is more than a

possibility Interest rates hikes and tariffs increases on worth $300bn of imports will start to weigh on firms profitability, then activity

The downward adjustment could be sizeable in highly leveraged sectors such as energy and IT As a consequence, the monetary

tightening would mark a pause Long term-bond yields would also stabilize, below the 3pct level.

The Euro area, growth is sharply decelerating, with some countries like Italy now in recession Extra and intra EU trade is less

dynamic, in line with fading external demand, in particular coming from EMEs Inflation is expected to come-back below the 2pct

level, as a consequence of falling oil prices The ECB will stop its net asset purchases as off the 1st January of 2019, while keeping

rates unchanged up to the end of year This may cause a (slight) rebound in bond yields as well as in the value of euro.

% 2018 e 2019 e 2020 e 2018 e 2019 e 2020 e

Advanced 2.2 1.5 1.2 2.0 1.5 1.7

United-States 2.9 2.1 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.0

Japan 0.9 0.7 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.4

Euro Area 1.8 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.4 1.4

Germany 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.6 1.6

France 1.5 1.2 1.2 2.1 1.3 1.6

Italy 0.8 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.0 1.0

Spain 2.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.3

Emerging 5.9 5.9 5.7 2.7 2.7 3.1

China 6.6 6.2 6.0 2.1 1.9 2.5

India 7.4 7.6 7.8 3.8 4.0 4.1

Brazil 1.3 3.0 2.5 3.7 3.8 3.6

Russia 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.8 3.6 4.2

Source : BNP Paribas Group Economic Research (e: Estimates & forecasts,)

GDP Growth Inflation

EcoCharts// February 19 economic-research.bnpparibas.com

2

Interest rates, % 2018 2019 ######## ######## ########

End of period Q1 Q2 Q3e Q4e Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 2018 2019e 2020e

US Fed Funds 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.75 2.75

Libor 3m $ 2.31 2.34 2.40 2.81 2.80 3.05 3.05 3.00 2.81 3.00 3.00

T-Notes 10y 2.75 2.86 3.06 2.69 2.80 3.00 2.80 2.80 2.69 2.80 2.50

Ezone ECB Refi 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Euribor 3m -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 -0.31 -0.30 -0.25

Bund 10y 0.50 0.31 0.47 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.25 0.40 0.40

OAT 10y 0.60 0.62 0.75 0.71 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.71 0.70 0.70

UK Base rate 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 0.75 1.25 1.25

Gilts 10y 1.39 1.33 1.48 1.27 1.70 1.85 2.00 2.10 1.27 2.10 2.10

Japan BoJ Rate -0.07 -0.07 -0.06 -0.07 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.07 -0.10 -0.10

JGB 10y 0.04 0.03 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.05 0.00 -0.05 -0.20

Exchange Rates 2018 2019

End of period Q1 Q2 Q3e Q4e Q1e Q2e Q3e Q4e 20.18 2019e 2020e

USD EUR / USD 1.23 1.17 1.16 1.14 1.15 1.17 1.21 1.25 1.14 1.25 1.34

USD / JPY 106.35 110.77 113.59 109.72 110.00 108.00 105.00 100.00 109.72 100.00 90.00

EUR EUR / GBP 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.90 0.85 0.85

EUR / CHF 1.18 1.16 1.13 1.13 1.16 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.13 1.20 1.25

Source : BNPP GlobalMarkets (e: Estimates & forecasts)

3 Euro-dollar 4 Interest rates

Euro vs Dollar

Spot price

1,13

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1,40

1,50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11-févr.

▬ United States, 10y Government Bond Yield

▪▪▪ Germany, 10y Government Bond Yield

2,66%

0,12%

11-févr.

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US-GER Spread

5 Interest rates 6 Oil market

▬ France, 10y Government Bond Yield

▪▪▪ Germany, 10y Government Bond Yield

0,12%0,56%

11-févr.

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Oil Price, Brent

USD per barrel, spot

40

120

80

100

60 61

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11-févr.


3

7 US, business climate 8 US, investment cycle vs corporate profits

▬ ISM Manufacturing

▪▪▪ ISM Manufacturing, new orders component

45

50

55

60

65

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ Corporate Profits after tax, % GVA [LHS]

▪▪▪ Corporate Fixed investment, % of GVA [RHS]

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

2%

6%

10%

14%

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

The business climate is now deteriorating. Corporate investment and profits are now relatively far along in

the cycle.

9 US, domestic oil market recovers 10 US, consumption

▬ Oil production, m/bd [LHS]

▪▪▪ Number of drillings [RHS]

0

300

600

900

1 200

1 500

1 800

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▌Private consumption, 3m/3m, ann. [LHS]

▬ Retail sales, vol., 3m/3m, ann. [RHS]

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

car sales (adjusted to scale)

After dropping sharply, the number of drillings is on the rise

again. US oil production is also recovering, matching all times

high.

Very strong in Q3, correcting in Q4.

11 US, housing market on a good shape 12 US, housing market on a good shape

▬ NAHB Index [RHS]

▪▪▪ Housing starts, x1000 [LHS]

0

30

60

90

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

▬ Inventories, Months of sales [RHS]

▪▪▪ Housing starts, x1000 [LHS]

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

The NAHB index is down from peak

First signs of peaking. Inventories are up in month of sales.


4

13 US, non-farm payrolls vs unemployment rate 14 US, labour force participation rate

▌Nonfarm payrolls, monthly change, x1000 [LHS]

▬ Unemployment rate [RHS]

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Participation rate

20-64 aged population

75%

76%

77%

78%

79%

80%

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

The US unemployment rate is below 4%, the lowest since 18

year.

The participation rate among the working age population (20-64

year) has reverted upward, a further indication that the labour

market is in better shape.

15 US, muted tensions over prices 16 US, some tensions over wages

▬ CPI Headline, yy

▪▪▪ CPI Core, yy ——CPI Energy, yy [RHS]

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

XAxis: Unemployment rate

YAxis: Real hourly wage rate

31/12/18

R² = 0,64

-2,5%

0,0%

2,5%

3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

Energy was largely responsible for the past upturn in headline

inflation. However, core inflation (excluding food and energy) is

now slightly accelerating.

Real hourly wage growth is now accelerating (coming from zero).

However, it is still below the path suggested by a traditional

Phillips curve.

17 US, credit to corporates keeps healthy 18 US, higher leverage in corporate sector

▌Credit to corporate*, net flows, an $bn [LHS]

▬ Banks tightening credit, % [RHS]

-30

0

30

60

90

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Corporate debt, % GVA [LHS]

▪▪▪ Corporate profit after tax, % GVA [RHS]

4%

8%

12%

16%

60%

80%

100%

1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Thanks to accommodating credit conditions, credit flows to

corporates (loans & bond issues) have returned to healthy pre-

crisis levels.

A cause for future concern? US companies are heavily in debt

again, while their profitability is peaking, a configuration that has

often preceded recessions.


5

19 US, low corporate spreads 20 US, corporate net debt by sectors

▬ United-States, BBB Corporate Bond Spread, Bps

▪▪▪ Oil Price, Brent, USD per Barrel [RHS]

25

50

75

100

125

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net debt / EBITDA 2016 2004-06

Corporate spreads have become sensitive to oil prices in the US.

One explanation is the size of the highly-leveraged shale oil

sector.

The energy sector has considerably increased its net debt ratio

since the “revolution” of shale gas and oil took place.

21 US, Fed funds rate and core inflation 22 US, flatter yields curve

▬ CPI Core

▪▪▪ Fed Funds Target Rate

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Yield Curve, 2y-10y

▌Recession periods

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

The Fed funds rate has ticked upwards, coming close to the core

inflation level.

The normalizing monetary conditions are illustrated by flatter

yield curve.

23 US, dollar effective exchange rates 24 US, external accounts

Dollar, real effective exchange rate

1973 = 100

80

90

100

110

120

130

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

Current account balance

% GDP

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Looking at the real effective exchange rate (trade weighted &

adjusted for inflation), the dollar looks to be on the expensive

side.

External deficits have stopped narrowing.

R.ESTATE

UTILITIES

ENERGY

TELECOM

CO.DISCR

INDUSTR.

MATERIALS

CO.STAPLE

HEALTHC.

IT

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6


6

25 China, various activity indicators 26 China, change in growth determinants

▬ GDP, yy

▪▪▪ Electr. Output, yy ——Industrial Output

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ US Households Debt Ratio, % GDP [LHS]

▪▪▪ China, Exports, % GDP [RHS]

10%

20%

30%

40%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Electricity and industrial output both in line with GDP growth (at

around 6% annually).

Bent on deleveraging, US consumers are importing less from

China.

27 China, investment has come down 28 China, credit

▬ Fixed investment, % GDP

▪▪▪ Private consumption, % GDP

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Credit outstanding as % of GDP

▬ Total ----Bank lending

100%

150%

200%

250%

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Bonds, entrusted loans, bank's

acceptances, financial trusts...

Consumption is still relatively low in terms of GDP (less than

40%)

China has the highest internal debt ratio of the emerging

countries.

29 China, trade surpluses remain large 30 China, leading the Commodity cycle

Trade balance (% GDP)

▬Total ▌Excluding Food&Energy ▌Food&Energy

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Cement output in China, yy [LHS]

▪▪▪ CRB World Commodity Prices Index, yy [RHS]

-35%

0%

35%

70%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

External surpluses are still huge, even though they have

narrowed somewhat since mid-2016 (rebound in oil prices).

The Chinese cement industry seems to edge back toward

recession, which has negative implication for commodity

markets.


7

31 Euro area, lagging behind 32 Euro area, GDP growth vs business surveys

GDP, vol. (2008 = 100)

▬ United States ▪▪▪ Euro Area

80

100

120

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

▌GDP, q/q, ann. [LHS]

▬ PMI composite [RHS]

45

50

55

60

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Although growth has accelerated, it still lags behind the US. Still down.

33 Germany, GDP growth vs business surveys 34 France, GDP Growth vs business surveys


▬ PMI composite [RHS] ▪▪▪ PMI Manuf. [RHS]

40

45

50

55

60

65

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



40

45

50

55

60

65

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Back to more normal levels after having rocketed. The fall in Q3

GDP is partly accidental and should be corrected in Q4.

However, the global trend appears less favourable.

A downward trend, accentuated by the “gilets jaunes” protests in

18’Q4.

35 France, peaking housing? 36 France, booming car registrations

▬ Housing Starts, ann. x1000 [LHS]

▪▪▪ Home Builders Business Outlook Index [RHS]

-50

-25

0

25

300

350

400

450

500

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

New car registrations

Monthly , x1000

100

150

200

250

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019

After having returned to cyclical peaks (more than 400K annual

starts) the housing activity in France is set to normalize.

A surge in Aug. ahead of more stringent technical standards. A

downward correction occurred last autumn.


8

37 Italy, GDP growth vs business surveys 38 Spain, GDP growth vs business surveys



40

45

50

55

60

65

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



40

45

50

55

60

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Back to zero or even below… Still good, albeit losing some momentum

39 Euro area, fixed investment vs cap. utilization rate 40 Euro area, corporate fixed investment vs profits

▬ Corporate, Mach. & equipt. investment % of GDP [LHS]

▪▪▪ Capacity utilisation rate [RHS]

77%

82%

87%

6%

7%

8%

1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Corporate Mach. & Equipt. investment, % GDP [LHS]

▪▪▪ Corporate profit margin index, 2007=100 [LHS]

94

96

98

100

102

6%

7%

8%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Higher capacity utilisation rates… … and upward profit margins have triggered an upturn in

corporate investment. Now peaking?

41 France, fixed investment vs corporate profit 42 France, fixed investment vs corporate debt

▬ Corporate Fixed Investment, % of GVA (LHS)

▪▪▪ Corporate Operating Earnings, % GVA (RHS)

28%

30%

32%

34%

36%

21%

23%

25%

27%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Corporate Fixed Investment, % of GVA (LHS)

▪▪▪ Corporate Debt, % GDP (RHS)

50%

60%

70%

80%

21%

23%

25%

27%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Investment in France has been rather resilient compared to other

countries, and despite various trends in corporate profits.

Credit has been a support factor for investment in France.


9

43 Corporate debt ratio, diverging trends 44 Euro area, trend in corporate fixed investment

Nonfinancial corporate debt, % GDP

▬ Germany ▪▪▪ France

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Investment in Mach. & Equipt., 2008 = 100 (vol.)

▬ Spain ▪▪▪ Italy

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

The French corporate debt has surged over the past decade.

However, this is largely due to big companies, which are also

cash rich. The net debt ratio is not so high.

Corporate investment revives in keeping with profit margins, but

not at the same pace across the board.

45 Euro area, current accounts show large surpluses 46 Euro area, trend in exports

Current account balance

% GDP

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ Intra-EU Exports, vol., 2013=100

▪▪▪ Extra EU Exports, vol., 2013=100

90

100

110

120

130

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

At a record high. Down both inside and outside EU, a further confirmation that

global trade is weakening

47 Euro Area, credit to corporates vs bank lending survey 48 Spain, credit to corporates (<1y, EUR 1mn)

▌Credit to Corporates, EURbn, an. [LHS]

▬ Banks tightening, % [RHS] ▪▪▪ Banks Expected demand, % [RHS]

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Credit to corporates, EURbn, <1y & EUR 1mn

▬ 12m cumulated net flows ▪▪▪ Monthly net flows (annualized)

-200

-100

0

100

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

The ECB bank lending surveys are improving as lending

standards return to normal. Corporate credit has slowly

recovered since 2015.

Credit to corporates (under 1 year and EUR 1mn) is stable in

Spain.


10

49 Euro area, financing conditions have improved 50 Euro area, consumer credit

Bank's lending rates to corporates (<1Y & EUR 1mn)

▬ France ▪▪▪ Italy ——Spain

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Euro are consumer credit

12m cumulated flows, EURbn

-25

0

25

50

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

The convergence of lending rates signals a reduction in

fragmentation.

Consumer credit is firmly back in positive territory.

51 Euro area, base money surge with the QE 52 Euro area, M3 growth vs core inflation

Money base

▌R.Reserves ▌Ex.Reserves ▌D. Facility

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ CPI Core, yy [RHS]

▪▪▪ M3, yy [RHS]

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

The ECB’s TLTRO programme temporarily inflated the money

base (bank holdings with the ECB), then growing with QE.

M3 growth is decelerating

53 Euro area, inflation still subdued 54 Euro Area, ECB “refi” rate vs determinants

▬ CPI Headline, yy

▪▪▪ CPI Core, yy ——CPI Energy, yy [RHS]

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ ECB Refi

▪▪▪ CPI Core, yy ——Unemployment Rate [RHS]

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

The core inflation rate is trending around 1% per year. The

fluctuation in headline figure is mainly caused by energy.

The refi has held at 0.0% since March 16, 2016, while the

deposit facility rate (DFR) is negative at -0.40%. The decline in

UR normally calls for normalisation, but not this time…


11

55 Italian 10 year rates 56 Spanish 10 year rates

▬ Italy , 10y Government Bond Yield

▪▪▪ Italy , 2y Government Bond Yield

2,90%

0,60%

11-févr.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ Spain, 10y Government Bond Yield

▪▪▪ Spain, 2y Government Bond Yield

1,37%

-0,15%

11-févr.

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rebounding, amid political uncertainties. Still relatively low.

57 France, over several maturities 58 Euro-dollar

France, Government Bond Yields

▬ 10y ▪▪▪ 5y ——2y

0,56%

-0,20%

11-févr.

-0,49%-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

▬ Euro vs Dollar, 2017=100

▪▪▪ Euro Nominal Effective Exchange rate, 2017=100

90

100

110

120

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sources : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas Sources : Thomson Datastream, BNP Paribas

Still very low by historical standard, at all maturities. Correcting from the 2017’ rebound.

59 Euro-dollar vs capital flows 60 Euro-dollar vs ECB’s balance sheet

▬ EUR vs USD [RHS]

▌Direct & Portfolio Investments to/from (+/-) EMU, EURbn

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1,40

1,50

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ ECB's Balance Sheet, Total Assets, EURbn [LHS]

▪▪▪ Euro vs Dollar

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1,40

1,50

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Net capital outflows from the EMU (direct and portfolio

investments) still important but reducing.

Lower range of fluctuation after QE.


12

61 US, S&P500 Trend in Operating earnings 62 US, S&P500 index vs operating earnings

▬ Operating Earnings Per Share, Annual, USD, Trend

▪▪▪ Operating Earnings Per Share, Annual, USD, Spot

140$

60$

80$

100$

120$

160$

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

▬ S&P500, Index, 1941-43 = 10 [LHS]

▪▪▪ Operating Earnings Per Share, Annual, USD, Spot [RHS]

800

1 000

1 500

2 500

2 000

3 000 156$

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

40$

Earnings per share are now far above their long-term trend. Correcting at the turn of the year.

63 US, S&P 500 “Fed model” 64 Euro Area, 10y Yield spreads vs public debt…

▬ S&P 500, Price-to-Earnings Ratio

▌S&P 500 Risk Premium

10

15

20

25

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

X Axis: Gross debt as % of GDP (2016)

Y Axis: 10y y ield spread vs Germany (11-2-19)

FR

IT

ES

NL

BE

AT

PT

FI IR 0

100

200

300

50 75 100 125 150

The PE ratio (based on trend EPS) is high, but the risk premium

on the “risk-free” rate (Treasuries) is not so low.

… with some details (European Commission estimates)

GDP Gen. Gov. fiscal balance Interests payment Public debt

Total Primary Struct. Total

2018 €bn €bn %GDP %GDP %GDP €bn %GDP Av. rate €bn %GDP Rating S&P

Germany 3 392 53,3 1,6 2,5 1,4 31,4 0,9 1,5 2 040 60,1 AAA

France 2 352 -61,7 -2,6 -0,8 -2,5 43,6 1,9 1,9 2 321 98,7 AA

Italy 1 767 -34,0 -1,9 1,7 -1,8 64,6 3,7 2,9 2 316 131,1 BBB

Spain 1 213 -32,4 -2,7 -0,3 -3,1 29,1 2,4 2,5 1 176 96,9 A-

Netherlands 773 8,4 1,1 1,9 0,3 6,2 0,8 1,5 411 53,2 AAA

Belgium 455 -4,5 -1,0 1,4 -1,3 10,7 2,4 2,4 462 101,4 AA

Austria 386 -1,3 -0,3 1,3 -0,8 6,2 1,6 2,1 288 74,5 AA+

Greece 185 1,2 0,6 3,9 4,0 5,9 3,2 1,9 338 182,5 B+

Portugal 202 -1,5 -0,7 2,7 -0,9 7,0 3,5 2,9 245 121,4 BBB-

Finland 232 -1,8 -0,8 0,1 -0,8 2,0 0,9 1,5 139 59,8 AA+

Ireland 322 -0,4 -0,1 1,5 -0,2 5,2 1,6 2,6 206 63,9 A+

EMU 11 606 -73,3 -0,6 1,2 -0,7 215,6 1,9 2,2 10 085 86,9

UK 2 391 -30,9 -1,3 1,2 -1,8 58,7 2,5 2,9 2 056 86,0 AA

EU 15 901 -109,4 -0,7 1,2 -1,7 295,4 1,9 2,3 12 945 81,4


13

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14

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