Population of China to 2050: Hi, Mid and Lo scenariosSource: UN Statistics Division, 2001

bill

ion

s (l

og

sca

le)

Difference in forecasts: 200-400 millionyear

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

.5

1

2

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.27

1.47 mid 1.461.54

hi1.69

1.39 lo1.24

China: 3 population projections to 2050China: 3 population projections to 2050

1.71.7

1.21.2

2020thth century China’s demographic century China’s demographic transformationtransformation

• The Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths The Great Famine, 1959-61: 30 million deaths and 30 million lost birthsand 30 million lost births

• The Demographic transition, The Demographic transition, • The One child policy, female infanticide and The One child policy, female infanticide and

the stabilization or decline of China’s the stabilization or decline of China’s populationpopulation

2020thth century China: century China:reading history from a population pyramidreading history from a population pyramid

(Judith Banister, (Judith Banister, China’s Changing China’s Changing PopulationPopulation (1987) (1987)

• The population pyramid: a record of birth, The population pyramid: a record of birth, death, and migration over many decadesdeath, and migration over many decades

• 2020thth century China: a “quasi-stable century China: a “quasi-stable population” (fairly constant birth rates with population” (fairly constant birth rates with fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and fluctuating death rates) impacted by war and famine.famine.

Wide base = high fertilityWide base = high fertility

Narrow base = low fertilityNarrow base = low fertility

Corseted base = declining Corseted base = declining populationpopulation

JapanJapan1995:1995:

70 70 years years

of pop. of pop. historyhistory

China:China:Great Great faminefamine1958-1958-19601960

2020thth century China: century China:reading history from a population pyramidreading history from a population pyramid

• Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the Stable, “natural” fertility—lower than in the west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or west: “controlled” (Lee & Wang) or uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)?uncontrolled (Coale, Banister and Barclay)?

• Effects of war and famine on fertilityEffects of war and famine on fertility• Mortality remained high until 1950sMortality remained high until 1950s• The Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million The Great famine of 1959-1961: 30 million

deaths and 30 million lost birthsdeaths and 30 million lost births

Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) Fig. 7.4)

or “naturally” lower?or “naturally” lower?

Lee & Wang’s Chinese Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transitiondemographic transition

Western Europe’s Western Europe’s demographic transitiondemographic transition

Relatively stable fertility to 1950Fertility transition occurred very rapidly

Tota

l Fe

rtili

ty R

ate

China: Total fertility rateyear

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

0

2

4

6

8

““Stable” fertility –1940sStable” fertility –1940sRising, 1947-1957Rising, 1947-1957

Secular decline, 1970-1980sSecular decline, 1970-1980s

Total Total fertility fertility

rate (Lee rate (Lee and and

Wang, Wang, Table 6.1)Table 6.1)

Age specific fertility rates reveals the Age specific fertility rates reveals the transition to controlled fertilitytransition to controlled fertility

Judith Banister, Judith Banister, China’s changing PopulationChina’s changing Population (Stanford, 1987) (Stanford, 1987)

Crude rates show the effects of the Crude rates show the effects of the Great Leap Forward FamineGreat Leap Forward Famine

Effects of the Great Leap Forward Effects of the Great Leap Forward Famine on Total Fertility RateFamine on Total Fertility Rate

Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Controlled to uncontrolled (Lee/Wang, Fig. 7.4) Fig. 7.4)

or “naturally” lower?or “naturally” lower?

Lee & Wang’s Chinese Lee & Wang’s Chinese demographic transitiondemographic transition

Western Europe’s Western Europe’s demographic transitiondemographic transition

Rising female age at marriage, 1950-Rising female age at marriage, 1950-81, by rural/urban residence81, by rural/urban residence

China: population pyramid, 2000China: population pyramid, 2000Narrow base shows fertility declineNarrow base shows fertility decline

Figure 3. China, Sex Ratios of Children by Age, Censuses of 1982 - 2000(Males per hundred females)

100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Age at Census Date

Sex

Rat

io a

s E

num

erat

ed

1982 Census

1990 Census

1995 Census

2000 Census

Sex ratio by age and CensusSex ratio by age and Census

Figure 4. China, Sex Ratio at Birth by Parity, 1990 and 2000 Censuses

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

Parity 1 Parity 2 Parity 3 Parity 4 Parity 5 &above

Parity

Sex

Rat

io a

t Bir

th

1989-1990

1999-2000

Death rate measureDeath rate measure 19811981 19901990 19951995 1999-20001999-2000

Male IMR, reported dataMale IMR, reported data 38.1238.12 28.2928.29 27.3727.37 21.9821.98

Female IMR, reported dataFemale IMR, reported data 36.1236.12 32.7732.77 36.2936.29 30.9830.98

Normal female IMRNormal female IMR 31.7731.77 23.5823.58 22.8122.81 18.3218.32

Absolute excess female Absolute excess female IMRIMR

4.354.35 9.199.19 13.4813.48 12.6612.66

Percent excess female IMRPercent excess female IMR 12%12% 28%28% 37%37% 41%41%

Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000Excess Female Infant Mortality, 1981-2000(infant deaths per 1,000 live births)(infant deaths per 1,000 live births)

1982: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1982: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

1990: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1990: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

1995: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 1995: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

2000: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14 2000: China, Sex Ratio Ages 0-14

What causes the shortage of girls in China?What causes the shortage of girls in China?

1.1. Poverty? No, some of China’s poorest areas have no Poverty? No, some of China’s poorest areas have no missing girl problem. But economic considerations matter.missing girl problem. But economic considerations matter.

2.2. Political or economic system? No, compare international.Political or economic system? No, compare international.3.3. Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter.Illiteracy, low educational level? No, but ideas can matter.4.4. Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority Han Chinese culture? YES. Also a few minority

nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures.nationality cultures. But not most, not Muslim cultures.5.5. Low fertility? YES. Combined with son preference.Low fertility? YES. Combined with son preference.6.6. One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female One-child policy? Maybe. Seems to worsen excess female

infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe infant mortality. Perhaps shortage of girls is more severe than without the one-child policy. than without the one-child policy.

Current Policies to Combat Son Preference

• Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males.Laws giving girls and women equal rights with males.

• Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the Propaganda and consciousness-raising slogans about the equal value and contributions of females and males.equal value and contributions of females and males.

• Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, Laws outlawing infanticide, prenatal sex identification, and sex-selective abortion.and sex-selective abortion.

• Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have Policies in most provinces allowing rural couples to have two children, or a second child if the first is a girl.two children, or a second child if the first is a girl.

• Some localities have preferential policies for couples with Some localities have preferential policies for couples with daughters but no son, for example modest social security daughters but no son, for example modest social security guarantees for the parents.guarantees for the parents.

2025: Sex ratio imbalance is likely to become less extremeSource: US Census Bureau, 2001

ma

les

pe

r 1

00

fem

ale

s

Cohort of 1980-2000 marked by extremes will persistage

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

80

90

100

110

120

2000

2000

2025

2025

China Sex Ratio in 2000 & 2025: comparedChina Sex Ratio in 2000 & 2025: compared

Population of China to 2050: Hi, Mid and Lo scenariosSource: UN Statistics Division, 2001

bill

ion

s (l

og

sca

le)

Difference in forecasts: 200-400 millionyear

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

.5

1

2

0.6

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.27

1.47 mid 1.461.54

hi1.69

1.39 lo1.24

China: 3 population projections to 2050China: 3 population projections to 2050

1.71.7

1.21.2