children and climate change conference princeton, march 12-13 th 2015 simon dietz, ben groom and...
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The impact of climate change on children
Children and climate change conferencePrinceton, March 12-13th 2015
Simon Dietz, Ben Groom and Billy Pizer
Net Benefits of Mitigation (2C)
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Discounted Utilitarianism (DU) and the Social Discount Rate (SDR)
“Positive”: r
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“Normative”: d
effectwealth preference
timepuregr
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0
0 1t
tt cuW
SDR
SWF
Discounted Utilitarianism (DU) and the SDR with uncertainty
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Lower SDR
effect prudence
1
effectwealth preference
timepurevar5.0 txg t
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0
0 1t
tt cuEW
2
1
,~
exp
Nx
xcc
t
ttt
Declining SDR with persistence
SDR
SWF
Resource Scarcity and Dual DiscountingE.g. Sterner and Persson (2008)
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Dual SDRs
CHCHHHH
HCHCCCC
gg
gg
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0
10 ,1
ttt HCuW
Scarcer H, substitute C: lower SDR
SDR
SWF
Extensions and Alternatives to Discounted Utilitarianism
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1
11
11
0
t
tSDU
tSDU
t
SDU
cu
W
Wcu
W c
c
Prioritarian SWF Adler and Treich 2012, 2015
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Higher SDR (g>0)
Effect
anPrioritarieffectwealth 1 gg
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0
0t
tP cugW
Priority for low well-being
SDR
SWF
0
1
1t
tcu
Sustainable Discounted Utilitarianism Dietz and Asheim (2012)
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Zero weight in the present if unsustainable
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n'egalitaria' if
esustainablnot if
e'sustainabl' if 1
11
11
0
t
tSDU
tSDU
t
SDU
cu
W
Wcu
W c
c
Coincides with DU for sustainable paths
SDR
SWF
With catastrophic impacts, damages x 4
The ‘elephant in the room’: Population ethics(Millner 2012)
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Average and Classical Utilitarianism (Millner 2012)
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CU better, but fails: ‘Repugnant’ conclusion: welfare higher
for large subsistence population.
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nism)utilitaria (classical
nism)utilitaria (average
uNcu
ucu
t
t
AU fails: Utility Independence Existence independence Negative expansion
principle
Utilitarian SWF
“SDR”+ axioms
Alternatives? Utilitarian and PrioritarianMillner 2012, Fleurbaey and Zuber 2014
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Population enters via distribution of well-being, u
Uncertain population growth13/03/2015 11
uNcu t
CLU better but: ‘very sadistic conclusion’ Doesn’t prioritise ‘lives worth living’
(u>0)
Critical LevelUtilitarianism
ugNgEW niEPEDE
11Expected
PrioritorianEqually
Distributed Equivalent
Conclusion
CBA is a means to an end
DU: a particular welfare framework
DU can be adapted for some intergenerational issues
Beyond “meta ethics”: population, sustainability
Theoretical and practical issues for CBA of our children’s welfare
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Thanks!
Dietz, Groom and Pizer (2015)
Ben GroomAssociate Professor in Environment and Development [email protected]
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