Child poverty and wellbeing in the Western Balkans

Elena GaiaUNICEF Regional Office CEE-CIS

World Bank International ConferencePoverty and Social Exclusion in the Western BalkansBrussels, 15 December 2010

This presentation:1. Child poverty, social exclusion and child wellbeing in the Western Balkans

2. Social protection for low income families with children in the Western Balkans

Conclusion

UNICEF’s research Child poverty studies and re-assessments of

LSMS/HBS data with children as unit of analysis, at different poverty thresholds and measures (B&H, Kosovo, Macedonia, Serbia)

Policy and public expenditure analyses (MOP in Serbia during the crisis; access to services in rural areas Serbia; child-focused PER in Macedonia)

Monitoring and tracking of impacts of financial, food and energy crises on children (all countries)

Social Monitor 2009 Data collection initiatives: TransMONEE, MICS, child

well-being index Model family analysis 2010 (with York University)

1. Child poverty and child wellbeing

in the Western Balkans

Our starting point• Countries in this region do relatively well on MDG or headline poverty indicators but

what is usually monitored in terms of income poverty, education performance, MDG indicators does not necessarily capture well the real challenges faced by children

• Getting the definition and measurement of child poverty right is crucial

Concepts and definitions

Child well-being: an analytical framework

Access to basic goods• Housing• Employment• Social benefits

Child’s well-being

Access to/quality of basic services• Health care• Education• Social services

State/Policy environment

Family

Peers

caregoods

inclusionvaluesleisure

Child poverty rates and gaps at different thresholds (%) Year Survey 2x food poverty line 4x food poverty line

Rate Mean gap Rate Mean gap

Bosnia and Herzegovina 2007 HBS 0.6 [-] 7.7 21.1

Kosovo 2006/07 HBS 10.9 23.5 50.5 31.9

Serbia 2007 LSMS 1.5 [-] 13.3 24.6

Averages based on fewer than 20 cases are ported as [-]

Children and young people in the Western Balkans: what are the issues?• General poverty has been decreasing but vulnerability still

high – crisis has made this visible

• Positive pre-crisis GDP figures and social indicators mask deeply rooted structural issues

• Erosion of social services: high access, but low quality

• Rise in regional and ethnic disparities

• Situation of marginalised groups shows little improvement (e.g. Roma, children with disabilities, children in institutions)

• Young people – lack of employment opportunities, increase in risky behaviours

Children are at higher risk of poverty than general population in the region

Poverty and child poverty in Kosovo % (consumption-based)

General population Children Childless

householdsHouseholds with children

Food/Extreme poverty line 17.5 18.9 18.0 17.3

Absolute poverty line 46.2 48.6 38.3 45.3

2.15$ a day poverty line 62.3 65.4 49.4 60.8

Risk factors for child poverty (B&H, K, S)• Having two or more siblings

• Living in families where the youngest child is <6

• Living in a rural area

• Employment status and education of the household head, crucial predictors. Children in families where the head has a university degree are the least likely to be poor

• In Serbia, 28 per cent of children living in families headed by persons with education below secondary are vulnerable to poverty compared with just 0.4 per cent of children with university educated heads of household

• In Kosovo, RAE children (3.4% of Kosovo’s children) have higher risk of poverty than children of Serbian and Albanian ethnicity

Material deprivation varies across countries

BiH Kosovo Serbia

A television 1.1 4.1 2.2

A fridge 1.8 14.9 3.9A vacuum cleaner 7.5 23.8 11.0

A washing machine 8.1 25.5 8.6

A car 30.1 40.3 35.9

A PC 63.0 89.5 50.0

Percentage of children living in households lacking the following durable goods

Key messages:•Child poverty and wellbeing in the Western Balkans are complex, multidimensional and context-specific

•Child poverty analysis of LSMS/HBS should be undertaken using a variety of poverty thresholds and deprivation indicators

•We are just beginning to unpack and understand the multiple factors influencing and constituting the living conditions of children in this region

2. Social protection for low income families with children in the Western

Balkans

Social protection

Set of public and private policies and programmes aimed at reducing, managing and overcoming the economic and social vulnerability of children, women and families, in order to ensure their access to a decent standard of living and essential services.

 

Four core components1. Cash Transfers2. Programmes to ensure economic and social access

to services3. Social support services4. Legislation and policies to ensure equity and non-

discrimination in children’s and families’ access to services and employment/livelihoods

It is the interconnection of cash and services that have an impact on children that we are concerned about

Model family analysis• Method for comparing social protection schemes, first

time used in this region• Used by OECD in Benefits and Wages series• National informants estimate what a set of standard

model families would receive, at a specified set of earnings levels, in the way of a specified set of taxes and benefits that make up the social protection package for families with children

• Info is entered into data matrices to explore the level and structure of the child benefit package, converted to a common currency ($ purchasing power parities) or expressed as a proportion of average earnings

Model family analysis (cont.)

Model family analysis (cont.)• Quick method for comparing like with like• Enables comparisons of the level and structure of the

benefit package and how it varies by family type, earnings, number and ages of children and before and after housing and childcare costs

• limits to the number of model families, income levels and parental employment permutations covered – comparisons illustrative rather than representative

• does not represent how these rules and laws operate in practice (non take-up)

• Informal payments to service providers not accounted• Challenges in computing housing costs and benefits

Net support to low income families with children is negative: taxes and charges exceed benefits

Earnings, charges and benefits for a couple+2 children (aged 2yrs 11 months and 7 years old) on half average earnings. June 2009 in 2007 US$ PPPs, per year

Low income families with children are worse off than childless couples on same earnings

The child benefit package for a couple plus 2 (2 years 11 months and 7) as a proportion of net income of childless couple with one earner on half average earnings, June 2009.

Other findings• For families in unemployment and living on minimum

income support, level of support is more generous with families with more children, except Albania and Kosovo where support to pensioner households is higher

• As proportion of average earnings, social assistance benefits are very low (below 30%) for all household types across al countries. In Kosovo, pensioners receive almost double the support of families with children

Impact of targeted social assistance on child poverty rates is limited

Impact of TSA on child poverty rates (2* food poverty except B and H and Serbia 4* food poverty)

Conclusions Before and after the crisis, children

remain extremely vulnerable to poverty and social exclusion in the Western Balkans

Social protection systems in Western Balkan countries could do more, or more of the right things, to support families with children and reduce child poverty

Beyond improving current TSA schemes, need to look into alternative models

Way forward• Combating child poverty: a priority for all of us,

now. The costs of inaction are too high• Even in an era of fiscal consolidation, the best

interests of children need to be put first• More research into multidimensional poverty, its

consequences on child welfare and specific needs of certain groups of children

• Rigorous assessments of impact of current policies, modelling and cost-benefit of alternative models

• Sharing of experiences from the region and creation of regional networks of expertise are important contributions

Thank you!

egaia@unicef.org

For more informationwww.unicef.org/ceecis