cheshire and warrington - emsi · 2016. 6. 3. · emsi lep report | cheshire and warrington lep 7...
TRANSCRIPT
Cheshire and WarringtonLEP REPORT
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Contents
3......Foreword
4......Overview of our region’s economy
5......High level overview of our region’s industries and occupations
6......What are our top industries?
7......What are our top occupations?
8......What are our highest paying industries and occupations?
9......What are our niche industries and occupations?
10....What are our most competitive industries and occupations?
11....Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?
About EmsiEconomic Modelling Specialists International (Emsi) creates tools and services that help organisations better understand the connection between economies, people and work. Through our unparalleled local and granular economic data, we are now working with more than 100 colleges, universities and LEPs across the country, giving them the understanding they need in order to close skills gaps, drive growth, and increase productivity in their local economy.
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Foreword
The central role of LEPs – determining local economic priorities, driving economic growth and helping to increase regional productivity – all require that you have a thorough understanding of your regional economy. One of the methods at your disposal to help you acquire this understanding is of course Labour Market Information (LMI).
There is a wealth of publicly available data sources available, but there are numerous problems associated with using them. To begin with, not one dataset out there gives a complete picture of the labour market. Secondly, all datasets contain strengths, weaknesses, and data suppressions. And thirdly, attempting to use the raw data is a hugely time-consuming and resource-consuming activity.
Most LMI solutions can help overcome the first and the third problem, by combining different datasets into one system. However, this still doesn’t overcome the second problem – that of weaknesses and data suppressions. Since these problems and gaps in the data tend to occur at the 3 and 4-digit industry and occupation levels, what most LMI solutions tend to do is to make assumptions about the granular levels based on the data and trends at the more generic levels. This approach is bound to lead to erroneous conclusions, since many of the industries and occupations at the 3 and 4-digit level are quite different from one another and are highly unlikely to have been growing or declining at the same rate (for example, within the 2-digit Leisure, Travel and Related Personal Service Occupations, there are such disparate occupations as Travel Agents, Caretakers, Hairdressers and Barbers, and Sports and Leisure Assistants). The same errors will occur if assumptions are made at the geographical level, as regions are made up of sub-regions which are often far from homogenous.
At Emsi we take a different approach. Rather than taking public datasets and making broad assumptions, we economically model them together using a technique developed over many years, which allows us to retain the strengths and discard the weaknesses of each source. What we end up with is a dataset that gives a detailed and accurate picture not only of regional labour markets, but also of the sub-geographies within, right down to the most specific industries and occupations.
The intent of this report is to give you a flavour of this data, tailored specifically to your region. Some of the highlights of the data in this report are:
• Granular data (4-digit) on occupations and industries throughout
• A look at the industries and occupations which make your region unique
• A look at the occupational make up of the most unique industry in your region
This kind of granular data can go a long way to helping you better understand what industries, occupations and skills are driving your region. In turn, this can help you in a number of ways, including better defining your region’s economic priorities, formulating a more effective growth strategy, and encouraging inward investment into your region.
Our goals are very similar to yours: you are looking to drive growth and increase productivity in your region; we produce granular data that is designed to give organisations such as yours the knowledge and understanding you need to be able to more effectively drive growth and increase productivity in your region. We hope that this report will be of use and of interest to you as you strive to meet your goals.
Overview of our region’s economy
Forecast job growth between 2015 and 2020:
4%
Projected number of jobs by 2020:
497,420
Forecast increase in jobs between 2015 and 2020:
17,452
Number of jobs in 2015:
479,968
Average wage in our region:
£25,319
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Elementary Occupations66,212
68,187
Top 5 high level industries
Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcyles
77,11779,185
Human Health and Social Work Activities
58,02761,446
Administrative and Support Services Activities
42,50444,276
Manufacturing42,599
41,545
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities
51,57054,681
Top 5 high level occupations
Managers, Directors and Senior Officials
Associate Professional and Technical Occupations
Professional Occupations
Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
83,37286,811
Administrative and Secretarial Occupations
61,79464,834
61,71164,685
47,58749,509
High level overview of our region’sindustries and occupations
Industry Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Human Health and Social Work Activities 3,419 6%
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities 3,111 6%
Financial and Insurance Activities 2,110 9%
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles 2,068 3%
Administrative and Support Service Activities 1,772 4%
Top 5 high level growth industries
Top 5 high level growth occupations
Occupation Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Professional Occupations 3,439 4%
Administrative and Secretarial Occupations 3,040 5%
Associate Professional and Technical Occupations 2,974 5%
Elementary Occupations 1,975 3%
Managers, Directors and Senior Officials 1,922 4%
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Industry Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Hospital activities 1,830 8%
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy 1,667 18%
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding 1,626 12%
Other business support service activities n.e.c. 1,474 19%
Beverage serving activities 895 8%
Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations 804 24%
Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet 788 29%
Business and other management consultancy activities 780 7%
Activities of head offices 697 21%
Computer programming activities 686 22%
Top 10 highest growth industries
What are our top industries?
A good place to start when trying to understand what is driving your regional economy is to look at which industries are driving employment both in terms of total numbers employed and in terms of future growth. However, simply looking at the headline industries will not tell you an awful lot. To come to a really good understanding of the drivers in your region, it is crucial to drill right down to the most specific industries (4-digit SIC). Our data tool, Analyst, allows users to do just this, and the information below shows both the biggest industries and the highest growth industries in your region, right down to the most granular levels.
Top 10 biggest industries
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Industry 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
Hospital activities22,549
24,379
Temporary employment agency activities
14,84715,013
Primary education14,819
14,331
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
14,54014,092
Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating
14,53814,430
Restaurants and mobile food service activities
13,48814,152
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding
13,39215,018
Beverage serving activities11,489
12,384
Business and other management consultancy activities
11,26712,047
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy
9,43711,104
The industry data tells us a good deal, but we also need to look at the local economy through the lens of occupations to see which jobs are driving the regional economy. As with the industry data, our Analyst tool can drill right down to the most granular detail, and so below we have set out the Top 10 occupations in your region both in terms of total numbers employed, and forecasted change to 2020 at the 4-digit SOC level.
What are our top occupations?
Top 10 biggest occupations
Top 10 highest growth occupations
Occupation Change in Jobs (2015-2020) % Change
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 726 8%
Care workers and home carers 594 4%
Nurses 505 5%
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 499 4%
Chartered and certified accountants 489 11%
Elementary storage occupations 407 4%
Bar staff 384 5%
Property, housing and estate managers 382 11%
Kitchen and catering assistants 346 4%
Programmers and software development professionals 313 8%
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Occupation 2015 Jobs 2020 Jobs
Sales and retail assistants20,69220,855
Care workers and home carers13,416
14,010
Other administrative occupations n.e.c. 11,56912,068
Elementary storage occupations9,88910,296
Nurses9,70910,214
Cleaners and domestics9,5399,476
Kitchen and catering assistants 9,3889,734
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks
8,9269,652
Sales accounts and business development managers
7,9638,270
Bar staff7,291
7,675
What are our highest paying industriesand occupations?Another important aspect of unlocking your region’s labour market is to look at how much industries and occupations pay. As with the data presented on previous pages, we have drilled right down to the most granular 4-digit SIC and SOC codes to unlock the highest paying industries and occupations in your region.
Industries – Median annual salary
Occupations – Median hourly wage
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£37.07£34.24 £33.01 £32.58 £32.28 £31.60
£28.98£27.45 £26.44 £26.28
Chief execu
tives a
nd
senior o
fficials
Senior pro
fessionals o
f
educatio
nal establish
ments
Senior police
officers
Aircraft p
ilots
and
flight engineers
Medical p
ractitioners
Marketing and sa
les dire
ctors
Train and tr
am drivers
Advertisin
g and public
relations d
irectors
Informatio
n tech
nology and
telecommunica
tions d
irectors
Dental practit
ioners
Treatm
ent and disp
osal
of haza
rdous w
aste
Extractio
n of salt
Other inform
ation te
chnology
and computer s
ervice activ
ities
Other mining and quarry
ing
n.e.c.
Manufacture of morta
rs
Manufacture of refined
petroleum pro
ducts
Manufacture of pharm
aceutic
al
preparations
Manufacture of other
chemica
l pro
ducts n.e.c.
Wholesale of o
ffice fu
rnitu
re
Inland freight w
ater transp
ort
£148
,299
.90
£95,
463.
68
£68,
888.
83
£65,
871.
25
£63,
860.
78
£62,
901.
93
£62,
571.
19
£61,
060.
57
£60,
550.
72
£60,
282.
80
Extraction of salt60.6360.63
Where things begin to get really interesting is when we uncover the industries that make your regional economy unique. Our Analyst tool contains a function known as Location Quotient, which is a statistical measure of industry or occupation concentration in an area compared to the rest of the country. Location Quotient works on a benchmark basis, with 1.0 indicating the national average. Therefore, industries and occupations with a score of more than 1.0 indicates that they have an employment profile that is greater than the national average.
What are our niche industries and occupations?
Industry Location Quotient
Occupation Location Quotient
Occupation 2015 LQ 2020 LQ
Chemical and related process operatives 2.23 2.20
Assemblers (vehicles and metal goods) 2.20 2.13
Chemical scientists 2.20 2.27
Glass and ceramics process operatives 2.14 2.28
Horticultural trades 1.91 2.02
Florists 1.90 1.97
Debt, rent and other cash collectors 1.86 2.03
Production and process engineers 1.72 1.70
Bank and post office clerks 1.70 1.77
Vehicle body builders and repairers 1.64 1.64
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Industry 2015 LQ 2020 LQ
Cold rolling of narrow strip48.32
53.18
Support activities for other mining and quarrying
18.3919.59
Lead, zinc and tin production 16.3716.91
Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals
13.3512.53
Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds
13.2014.45
Manufacture of hollow glass 11.0312.65
Collection of hazardous waste 11.0311.09
Cold drawing of wire10.99
11.99
Manufacture of steel drums and similar containers
8.907.72
We can also measure which industries and occupations make your region unique using a function on Analyst called Shift Share. Using this function produces a figure known as Competitive Effect, which is similar to Location Quotient, but rather than measuring uniqueness in terms of total jobs, measures it in terms of job growth. What this figure does, therefore, is to explain how much of the change in a given industry or occupation in your region is due to some unique competitive advantage that the region possesses. Positive numbers denote a positive Competitive Effect, and so the larger the number, the greater the Competitive Effect.
What are our most competitive industriesand occupations?
Industry Competitiveness
Occupation Competitiveness
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Industry Competitive Effect
Other business support service activities n.e.c.
Accounting, bookkeeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy
Financial service activities, except insurance and pension funding
Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations
Beverage serving activities
Hospital activities
Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet
Non-specialised wholesale trade
Collection of non-hazardous waste
Activities of head offices
Occupation Competitive Effect
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks 372
1,287
Chartered and certified accountants 281
954
Bar staff 183
816
Property, housing and estate managers 164
759
Bank and post office clerks 162
506
Debt, rent and other cash collectors 141
430
Financial accounts managers 107
369
Refuse and salvage occupations 107
367
Financial administrative occupations n.e.c. 99
342
Stock control clerks and assistants 94
341
The data on page 9 showed which industries are most unique to your region, with the Extraction of salt industry coming on top. However, we might then ask the question, what are the occupations that this sector employs? Through our Staffing Pattern function in Analyst, we can answer this question. The data below gives a breakdown of the Top 6 occupations within this sector, including numbers employed, employment forecast, hourly earnings and education level. The significance of this information is that you can find out quickly and simply what the occupations are in an industry, and therefore the skillset for that sector. It is worth noting that the process can also be run in reverse, whereby users can begin with an occupation (rather than an industry) and run an Inverse Staffing Pattern to quickly identify the industries that employ this position.
Where are the jobs in our most niche industry?
DescriptionEmployed
in Industry (2015)
Employed in Industry
(2020)
Change (2015 –
2020)
% Change (2014 –
2020)
% of Total
Jobs in Industry
(2015)
Median Hourly
Earnings
Education Level
Electricians and electrical fitters 100 101 1 1% 26.8% £14.00
A Levels; Level 3 NVQ; BTEC Level 3
Quarry workers and related operatives 85 85 0 0% 22.8% £11.59
GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2
Quality assurance and regulatory professionals
77 81 4 5% 20.6% £19.03Honours,
Bachelor's degree; BTEC
Level 6
Book-keepers, payroll managers and wages clerks
72 74 2 3% 19.2% £10.67GCSE at
grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2
Records clerks and assistants 20 21 1 5% 5.5% £9.81
GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2
Large goods vehicle drivers 19 20 1 5% 5.1% £10.72
GCSE at grades A*-C; Level 2 NVQ; BTEC Level 2
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To find out more about how Emsi can help your organisation build a better regional economy, contact:
Email: [email protected] Phone: 07720 641 651
Web: www.economicmodelling.co.uk Blog: www.economicmodelling.co.uk/blog
Twitter: @EMSI_UK