Chemical forecastfrom NASA, U.Iowa & NCAR

2012-08-23

Arlindo DaSilva, NASA GoddardPablo Saide, Greg Carmichael, U. Iowa

Louisa Emmons, Mary Barth, Mijeong Park, NCAR

UIOWA model summary• WRFv3.3.1, 12km horizontal resolution, 35 vertical

levels up to 50hPa, MYJ PBL, run continuously, FNL meteo, 2 runs:– Full chemistry: Lin MP, KF cumulus, CBMZ-MOSAIC 4 bin

with aerosol direct effect, no biomass burning, MACC (assimilated, ECMWF) chemical boundary conditions• Output: Full chemistry (O3, CO, NOx, VOC, etc.), Aerosol mass

(oc, bc, so4, nh4, no3, oin, na, cl, water) and number resolved by size

– Tracer (no chemistry , no decay, no deposition), Morrison MP, Grell Cumulus• Tracers: Biomass burning (NCAR + Plume rise), Thailand, China

region, India region, East Thailand region (Vietnam), West Thailand region (Nepal), South Thailand region (Indonesia), shipping, degassing volcanoes, dust, sea salt, MEGAN biogenics

• Emissions: INTEX-B 2006 0.5°x0.5° resolution, IIASA 2005 1x1° shipping, vertical and diurnal variation for Area, Industry and Power.

• Plots: Pressure levels: 925, 850, 500, 200, 150, 100. Five cross sections

Topography, Cross-sections and model domain

NCAR models: MOZART-4 and WRF-TracerMOZART-4, driven by GEOS-5 meteorology (global)1) Full Chemistry: 1.9°x2.5° horiz resolution2) Tracers only: 0.5°x0.6° horiz resolution

– Tracers with 25-day lifetime based on anthropogenic CO emissions (global and by region) and biomass burning– Soluble tracer with 25-day lifetime, global anthro CO emissions– 5-day tracer, global anthro CO emissions– Biogenic tracer, MEGAN isoprene emissions, 5-day lifetime– Lightning NO tracer, 5-day lifetime– Stratospheric ozone tracer

•Emissions: Anthro: Streets-ARCTAS; Fires: FINN (Wiedinmyer)

WRF with Tracers: 2 Domains: 20 & 4 km hor.resol.; top: 10 hPaPhysics:

– Two moment cloud physics (modified Thompson et al., 2004)– Tiedtke scheme / No convective parameterization– Mellor-Yamada-Janjic PBL parameterization– NOAH land surface model– Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for long wave radiation– Goddard scheme for short wave radiation

Tracers:– 1 tracer from the boundary layer everywhere in domain– 2 tracers from the boundary layer for the Straits of Malacca region

(passive and 1-day lifetime tracers)– 2 tracers from the mid-Troposphere region – 2 tracers from the Stratosphere region

– 1 tracer from the production of lightning-NOx

Other NCAR productsFINN – Fire Inventory from NCAR (C. Wiedinmyer)

Run in real-time using MODIS Rapid Response fire counts (FIRMS from UMd)Fire emissions for each fire, and gridded to 0.5 degEmissions for CO2, CO, NO, BC, OC, etc., and speciated VOCs (MOZART, SAPRC, GEOS-chem mechanisms)

MOPITT CO Processed daily at NCAR, available within 8 hours of overpassJoint Thermal/Near IR retrievals of CO profilesGlobal coverage in 3 days

IASI COProcessed daily at NCARThermal IR retrievalsFull global coverage twice a day

India region contribution

China region contribution

• Good opportunities over Nepal• Big contributions from India

and China regions

Total CO full chemistry 150mb

1. Anticyclone Transport

1. Anticyclone Transport

E.Asia Anthro

• Good opportunities over Nepal• Big contributions from India

and China regions

India Anthro (white line indicates source region)

Lightning NO

India contribution 850 hPa

• Iowa WRF has some transport from India over BoB, but MZ4/GEOS5 does not• Pollution over Nepal mainly from India,

very mixed due to anticyclone

Total CO full chemistry 850 hPa

2. Pollution over Northern Bay of Bengal, Nepal

Anthro CO

Indonesia region 150mb

• Isolated convection over BoB and east of Singapore• Cumulus outflow from India, south Thailand, and

Biomass burning

Vertical velocity Biomass Burning 150mb

India region contribution 150mb

3. Outflow from cumulus, cloud processing

3. Outflow from cumulus, cloud processing

Anthro, 25-day soluble tracer

• Low values of soluble tracer indicate extensive cloud processing of air at 200 hPa

Anthro, 25-day tracer

Lightning NO

NCAR WRF-Tracer shows strongest convection over S. Gulf of Thailand

3. Outflow from cumulus, cloud processing

Reflectivity (dBZ)

Dust tracer

Biomass burning tracer

Biogenics tracer

• All at 850 mb

CO full chemistry (non BB)

4. Tropospheric chemistry source characterization

Volcano tracer

4. Tropospheric chemistry source characterization

Fire tracer

• Anthro• Fires• Biogenics

Anthro tracer

Isoprene emissions tracer

• Cross section west to east through Singapore (103.75E)

• Sources other than shipping dominate pollution

• Low clouds present

5. Ship track study

Shipping Tracer Volcano Tracer

Indonesia region Tracer Biomass Burning Tracer

6. TTL Cirrus heating rates

• Cirrus over clear water on East BoB, east Philippines, around Java

LWP

IWPCloud Incidence

Biomass Burning 150mb

• Extensive cirrus coverage (model cloud fraction at 150mb)

• High number of Aerosol Aerosol Number full chem

Cloud Incidence

7. Cirrus microphysics

CO BB 150 mb CO BB 850 mb

• Avoid convection close to Singapore

8. Smoke radiative heating rates13. Biomass burning

BB across Singapore

8. Smoke radiative heating rates13. Biomass burning

CO Biomass Burning 150 mb CO Biomass Burning 850 mb

• Some burning on Borneo

• Tropopause height ~ 17km over Utapao (~100mb)

• Big China Contribution

10. Mixing into TTL

Water vapor 100mb Tracer run Water vapor 100mb FullChem run

China region 100mb

Strat intrusion near convected pollution?

• Aerosols and clouds

LWP+IWP, LWP contours

TOTAL AOD with contours at 500mb

11. ACE satellite retrievals12. Aerosol retrievals through clouds 14. CALIPSO and CloudSat retrievals

AOD with cloud contours Across Utapao