Chemical and biological Chemical and biological weapons – ultimate weapons – ultimate

terrorist devices for near terrorist devices for near future or still a threat “in future or still a threat “in

perspective”?perspective”?

MHSEMHSEYastrebova OlgaYastrebova Olga

CB terrorism has been practiced through the CB terrorism has been practiced through the history and in all types of societyhistory and in all types of society

Most recent attacksMost recent attacks::

1.1. Sept. 1984, the Dalles, Oregon, Rajneesh Sept. 1984, the Dalles, Oregon, Rajneesh religious cult used Salmonella typhimurium to religious cult used Salmonella typhimurium to cause food poisoning. 751 became illcause food poisoning. 751 became ill

2.2. Match 1995, The Japanese apocalyptic religious Match 1995, The Japanese apocalyptic religious cult Aum Shinrikyo released the nerve gas sarin cult Aum Shinrikyo released the nerve gas sarin in the Tokyo underground system. 6 deaths, 600 in the Tokyo underground system. 6 deaths, 600 injured injured

3.3. 2001, “Anthrax” letters in the U.S.2001, “Anthrax” letters in the U.S.

3 W’s of CB terrorism3 W’s of CB terrorism

Why Why terrorist will follow this path terrorist will follow this path

WhoWho, along the spectrum of , along the spectrum of terrorist groups, would be most terrorist groups, would be most

likely copycats likely copycats

WhyWhy the premium attacks have the premium attacks have NOTNOT been duplicated yet been duplicated yet

““Terrorists want a lot of people watching, not Terrorists want a lot of people watching, not a lot of people dead” Brian Jenkinsa lot of people dead” Brian Jenkins

Nowadays: New ruthless breed of terrorists. Nowadays: New ruthless breed of terrorists. Why?Why?

1.1. Significant change in motivationSignificant change in motivation

2.2. More “sensational’ attacks needed to grab the More “sensational’ attacks needed to grab the media spotlightmedia spotlight

3.3. Weapons, technologies are more available Weapons, technologies are more available (Internet, black market)(Internet, black market)

4.4. Mastering of the terrorists’ craftMastering of the terrorists’ craft

5.5. State-supported terrorismState-supported terrorism

6.6. Anonymity has become more preferableAnonymity has become more preferable

3 W’s – short answers3 W’s – short answers WHY? See previous slide. New generation

of terrorists – nihilistic, apocalyptic, angry

WHO? Religious terrorists, state-sponsored terrorists, extreme single-issue groups, fanatical nationalists, right wing militias, psychopaths

WHY NOT? Reasons:1. Moral objections2. Danger3. As the effects are delayed it’s hard to

claim responsibility for a biological attack4. Fear of loosing the supporters5. Difficult to obtain and produce CBW6. Fear of fury reaction of the state

Biological weapons – living organisms…or infective material derived from them, which are intended to cause disease or death and which depend for their effects on their ability to multiply in the person,

animal, or plant attacked

Types: bacteria, viruses, riskettsia, fungi, toxins.Incubation periods, morality rates vary among

diseases. Acquisition: natural sources, culture collections,

research laboratories and public health facilities, state sponsors or discontent employees of countries that maintain a biowarfare capability.

Biological agents are easy to acquire, synthesize and use.

Small amounts of agent needed.Easy to conceal, transport and disseminate.

Toxicity: Tiny amounts of biological agents can kill. Lethal doses of toxins are measured in micrograms (1 X 10~6 grams); those of biological agents are generally measured in picograms (IX 10~12 grams).

Speed of action: Live biological agents act slowly. The agent must multiply in the victim before the victim will exhibit symptoms, a process that can take from several hours to several weeks. The incubation period of anthrax, for example, is from one to six days. Treatment must begin before symptoms appear. Toxins act immediately.

Specificity: Biological agents are specific: most affect either plants, humans, or other animals exclusively.

Controllability: The effects of biological agents are highly dependent on difficult-to- control variables such as mete orological conditions and terrain. The spread of conta gious agents is particularly hard to control or predictbecause victims may infect others. Some biological agents may be spread not only by human travelers but also by animals and migratory birds.

Residual effects: Most biological agents will not survive long in the atmosphere. Anthrax in spore form, however, persists in soil of structures for many years.

Ways of delivering, dissemination and detection

Delivery: bomb, aerosol, food & water contamination, crop Delivery: bomb, aerosol, food & water contamination, crop contamination, BM /submunitions/ contamination, BM /submunitions/

Dissemination: BA must be dispersed as fine particles less than Dissemination: BA must be dispersed as fine particles less than 5 microns in size. Agricultural crop-dusters, aerosol generators 5 microns in size. Agricultural crop-dusters, aerosol generators on small boats, truck, or cars, backpack sprayers, air-handling on small boats, truck, or cars, backpack sprayers, air-handling system system

Detection:Detection:1. >Disease (or strain) not endemic 2. >Unusual antibiotic resistance patterns 3. >Atypical clinical presentation 4. >Case distribution geographically and/or temporally

inconsistent 5. >Other inconstant elements (e.g., number of cases, mortality

and morbidity rates, deviations from disease occurrence baseline)

  Pro Contra

Delivery    

bomb 

Blast would kill most agent and not to disperse the remainder effectively

Aerosol Cheap, hand-held or truck mounted sprayers

Microscopic particle size must be achieved, for

open delivery - the meteorological conditions

are important

Contamination of water

Locations ordinarily are not well guarded, some bioware

agents are relatively stable in water

Truly enormous quantity of agent is needed, water is purified by chemicals

Contamination of foodRather easy in public

places /Rajneesh cult/, not much quantity

Local character,

BM missilesUse of submunitions allow to

bring more agents, more area will be infected and etc.

Main problem - high temperature

Dissemination    

Aerolization Low-tech and cheap

Spraying involves mechanical stresses, liquid aerosol doesn't

remain suspended in the air for long distances

Air-handling systemMass casualties

Size, technical information about the

building

Chemical WeaponsChemical Weapons chemical substances, whether gaseous, liquid, or solid,

which are used for hostile purposes to cause disease or death in humans, animals or plants, and which depend on direct toxicity for their primary effect

Types:Types:1) blister agents that destroy exposed skin tissue

(e.g., mustard gas and lewisite);2) blood agents that, when inhaled, block

oxygen circulation within the body (e.g., hydrogen cyanide and cyanogen chloride);

3) choking agents that inflame the bronchial tubes and lungs, possibly causing asphyxiation (e.g., phosgene and chlorine);

4) and nerve agents that short circuit the nervous system, resulting in respiratory failure and death within minutes (e.g., tabun, sarin, soman, and VX).

Toxicity: Toxicity: Lethal or incapacitating doses of Lethal or incapacitating doses of chemical agentschemical agentsare measured in milligrams (1/1000 of a gram). are measured in milligrams (1/1000 of a gram).

Speed of action: Speed of action: Chemical agents can kill Chemical agents can kill within minutes.within minutes.

Specificity: Specificity: Chemical agents affect all living Chemical agents affect all living things.things.

Controllability: Controllability: As with biological agents, the As with biological agents, the effects of dispersed chemical agents are highly effects of dispersed chemical agents are highly dependent on difficult-to-control variables such dependent on difficult-to-control variables such as meteorological con ditions and terrain.as meteorological con ditions and terrain.

Residual effects: Residual effects: Volatile chemical agents, such Volatile chemical agents, such as sarin or chlorine, dissipate within minutes. as sarin or chlorine, dissipate within minutes. Less volatile agents, such as mustard or VX, Less volatile agents, such as mustard or VX, persist for hours or days. Mustard reportedly persist for hours or days. Mustard reportedly persists even longer when contained under persists even longer when contained under groundground

Main aspects of chemical terrorismMain aspects of chemical terrorism

Highly toxic per unit; relatively Highly toxic per unit; relatively resistant to the atmosphere, capable resistant to the atmosphere, capable of being produced in high quantitiesof being produced in high quantities

Easy to acquire or synthesizeEasy to acquire or synthesize Easy to acquire all necessary Easy to acquire all necessary

equipmentequipment

Delivery and dispersing of a Delivery and dispersing of a Chemical AgentChemical Agent

Contamination of food and water suppliesContamination of food and water supplies Munitions /terrorists may fashion their own Munitions /terrorists may fashion their own

devices/devices/ Aerosol/sprayAerosol/spray Crops contaminationCrops contamination

Main factors to be considered for successful Main factors to be considered for successful disseminationdissemination::

Temperature, sunlight, wind action, rainfall, urban Temperature, sunlight, wind action, rainfall, urban settings, buildings and etc.settings, buildings and etc.

Main problem:Main problem: chemical agents are highly chemical agents are highly susceptible to weather conditionssusceptible to weather conditions

Rethinking the lessons of TokyoRethinking the lessons of Tokyo• It was a dawn of a new era of terrorism• CBW are really easy to acquire and use. • Only 7 people died, but no one can be 100% sure that

the small number of the dead would have been the same or slightly more, if there hadn’t been low-grade sarin and low-tech methods of delivery used.

• Maximum protective gear and total decontamination should be the iron-clad rules of responding to an unconventional terrorist attack.

• It’s important to reduce the anxiety of people • The response should be directed by experienced

professionals.• Communications are important. • If intelligence and law enforcement agencies have been

watching close enough, they would have detected signs of approaching attack.

• Religious organizations shouldn’t’ be shielded from undue government interference

Statistical trends in terrorismStatistical trends in terrorism

Year Number of Incidents /Hoaxes/ TOTAL1999 25 /49/ 742000 48 /25/ 732001 25 /603/ 628

Agent2000 2001

Biological 26/22 607/600Chemical 24/0 12/1/Nuclear 2/0 4/2/

Radiological 17 (3) 2/0Combination 0/0 3/0

Unknown 4/0 0/0TOTAL 75 /25/ 628 /603/

Number of incidents (Hoaxes)

Agent 2000 2001Acid 8 4

Anthrax bacteria 0 7Arsenic 1 0Cyanide 0 1

Hydrogen Cyanide 1 0Influenza 1 0

Iodine -125 1 0Mice poison and wood varnish 1 0

monazite 10 0Neuroparalytic poison or toxin 1 0

Poison gas 0 1Salmonells bacteria 1 0

Sewer water 1 0Uranium 1 0Unknown 8 2TOTAL 35 15

Motive 2000 2001To protest treatment of animals 1 1To express abortion-related sentiment 15 550To support other singke-isue 3 0To fulfill individualized objective 13 4To establish ethno-nationalists sovereignity 16 7To acrt because of an ideology / belief system 16 50Unknown 9 14

Affiliations of groups with CB substances

141

5331

29

29

26

16

16

1Unknown

Nationalists/separatists

Religious cults

religious fundamentalists

Single-issue

Lone actors

Right-wing

Left-wing

N/a

Main conclusionMain conclusion

it is much more reasonable to apply all forces to answer not when or who will attack first, but what should be done for preventing the attack or making its consequences less devastating