cheltenham festival winning profiles 2018 - against the crowd · festival – the championship...
TRANSCRIPT
www.againstthecrowd.co.uk
Cheltenham Festival
Winning Profiles 2018
(Races to be run Tuesday 13th March to Friday
16th March)
Key trends point to Festival winners
The Cheltenham Festival represents the pinnacle of National Hunt
racing.
The G1 Championship races that take place at the venue every
March are designed to find the best horses in specific divisions of
the jump racing game.
• The Champion Hurdle run on the Tuesday is designed to find the best 2-mile hurdler.
• The Queen Mother Champion Chase is designed to find the best horse over the bigger obstacles at the minimum distance
of 2-miles. The race is run on the Wednesday of the Festival.
• On Thursday Cheltenham Stages the Stayers’ Hurdle designed
to find the best staying hurdler over a trip of 3-miles.
• Thursday also plays host to the Ryanair Chase – a race which
has become a Championship event for chasers specialising in a
trip of 2 miles and 5 furlongs.
• On the Friday of the Festival, we have the Gold Cup – the
staying chasers' Championship event run over 3 miles and 2 furlongs.
These races are difficult to read. All the most talented horses in each division – at least those which are fit – tend to show up. All the
major yards are represented. Every single runner is trying. Nothing
is being saved for another day.
The championship races are invariably run at a red-hot pace. This,
in combination with the specific demands of the track, means that only horses at the top of their game, horses tuned to the moment
and horses in receipt of luck in running, can prevail on the day.
A horse can run the race of its life in a Championship race at the
Cheltenham Festival – and it can still get beaten.
So how do we solve these betting puzzles?
It's never ‘easy’ to solve these races – but help is at hand in the
form of historical evidence.
Over the years, specific types of horses tend to come out on top
time and time again in the Championship races.
The winners tend to share certain characteristics and credentials….
They have similar qualifications….
They have achieved similar things and met similar yardsticks….
Their careers have been constructed around common themes. Their
respective campaigns have similar and consistent features….
They meet the same broad criterion. They tick the same boxes.
They measure up similarly to a wider statistical profile….
Conversely, horses that fail to meet the criteria laid down by these
long-standing trends tend to fall short.
It is very fair to say that trends will not always point you directly to
a winner – at least not on their own. But they will help you split a
field into the horses that fit the winning trends most closely and
those who match them least.
And that information can help you reach betting decisions….
No horse will meet every trend in every race. But we can take a
subjective view and weigh up one thing against another.
We can figure out which trends we think are most important against
what else we know. We might discard some trends. With others, we might forgive a horse for not meeting the criteria – for whatever
reason.
The point I’m making is that trends are instructive and can direct
and focus the way we look at or get into or go about finding angles
on specific races.
In this report, you will find comprehensive stats for each of the G1
Championship races set to be run at this season’s Cheltenham
Festival – the races where year-on-year the trends most frequently
remain consistent.
I call these documents Winning Race Profiles – and they are part
of the approach I take to finding value bets in the big races.
These Winning Race Profiles are a useful tool. That’s why I compile
them. That’s why I keep them up to date year on year. That’s why I
use them – alongside my other methods – in my own analysis of the
big races. And that’s why I’m handing them over to you.
They don’t represent a magic winner-finding system. It isn’t a case
of A + B + C + D = winner. But it is good data nevertheless – much
of which you won’t find elsewhere.
Take a good look at the key stats for any of the individual races.
Isolate those that seem strongest or most important to you.
Then measure the horses set to go to post in this season’s renewal
against that statistical checklist. See how they measure up as
potential candidates.
It’s a very instructive process – at the end of which, at the very
least, you will have very clear ideas on the strengths and potential
flaws in each of the horses set to run.
That’s the kind of information and insight that large portions of the
market are completely unaware of.
Considering those are the people you are betting against when the
Festival races get underway, it is clear the information contained in
our Winning Race Profiles delivers a very real knowledge edge.
What next? There is no standard right or wrong way forward. It is a
case of each to his own.
Some of my readers back the top scorer on the Profile. That’s fine.
Other use the Profiles to identify short-priced horses with flaws – so
that they can oppose them either by laying them on the exchanges
or backing one or more of their opponents.
Personally, I use my Winning Race Profiles as a value-finding tool. I
am always most interested in the horses that tick a lot of the right
Profile boxes, but which are being over-looked by the wider market.
I’m a contrarian punter. That’s the way I play. I’ve had good days
where I’ve backed big winners at big prices. And I’ve had plenty of
losing days too.
I expect those losing days. Losing days are an inevitable
consequence of how I play the game. For me it’s a long-term affair.
In seeking out value bets I aim to back sufficient winners at
sufficiently good prices to get ahead of the game over time….
How you use the information, and how you seek to apply it in the
betting markets, is pretty much up to you. We look at it as our job
to load the gun with bullets. Where you point it and when you fire is
your business….
All I hope is that you find the information useful – and if you use it
to bag a winner at this year’s Festival, then so much the better.
Let us know how you get on.
Best wishes,
Nick Pullen
January 2018
The Profile of a Champion Hurdle
winner
The Champion Hurdle is the feature race on the opening day of the Festival – the Championship event for the hurdlers. We can usually
rely on a double-figure field going to post for this – with a big field
now and again.
The Champion Hurdle is a Grade 1 event run over the extended 2-mile trip and 8 flights on Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open
to horses aged 4 and older. The 4yos carry 11-02 whilst the older
horses must shoulder 11-10. Fillies and mares benefit from the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 20 winners of the Champion Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle
runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed
ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and
trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2017 Buveur D'Air G FR 6 157 5 38 159 143 5/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2016 Annie Power M IRE 8 162 12 27 164 139 5/2 F W P Mullins
2015 Faugheen G IRE 7 169 7 74 169 141 4/5 F W P Mullins
2014 Jezki G IRE 6 165 10 44 167 151 9/1 Mrs John Harrington
2013 Hurricane Fly G IRE 9 172 19 44 173 161 13/8 F W P Mullins
2012 Rock On Ruby G IRE 7 165 6 78 166 160 11/1 Paul Nicholls
2011 Hurricane Fly G IRE 7 167 11 51 169 153 11/4 F W P Mullins
2010 Binocular G FR 6 163 10 38 172 158 9/1 Nicky Henderson
2009 Punjabi G GB 6 163 12 24 164 160 22/1 Nicky Henderson
2008 Katchit G IRE 5 159 12 24 162 157 10/1 Alan King
2007 Sublimity G FR 7 0 5 45 148 139 16/1 John G Carr
2006 Brave Inca G IRE 8 0 20 44 170 151 7/4 F C A Murphy
2005 Hardy Eustace G IRE 8 0 16 31 170 155 7/2 J D T Hughes
2004 Hardy Eustace G IRE 7 0 10 31 156 123 33/1 D T Hughes
2003 Rooster Booster G GB 9 167 25 38 170 154 9/2 2 Philip Hobbs
2002 Hors La Loi III G FR 7 153 16 19 166 152 10/1 James Fanshawe
2000 Istabraq G IRE 8 0 23 51 181 174 8/15 F A P O'Brien
1999 Istabraq G IRE 7 0 16 51 176 171 4/9 F A P O'Brien
1998 Istabraq G IRE 6 0 10 51 162 160 3/1 F A P O'Brien
1997 Make A Stand G GB 6 0 11 30 157 157 7/1 M C Pipe
Yards with form – Nicky Henderson has won the race 6 times in total. His last 31 participants have generated 3 wins and 9
additional placed finishes. Willie Mullins has been the star-man
over the last few years. His last 20 runners have produced 4
winners and 4 placed finishers.
Bloodlines of note – It is worth noting that horses sired by Oscar
seem particularly suited to the test this race presents. His last 6
runners have produced a winner and 3 additional horses that hit the
frame.
In the plate – The top jockeys have enjoyed most success in this
event in recent times. Barry Geraghty has partnered two winners
and 4 placed horses from 13 rides. Ruby Walsh has ridden 4 winners and 4 placed horses from 16 rides. Noel Fehily has ridden
2 winners and a placer from his last 5 rides in the race. For sure,
the top jockeys get the best rides – but they get them for a reason.
Market pointers – Where the championship races are concerned, this is the race where I’m happiest to look for a horse down the
prices. Nine of the winners over the last 20 years came from
out of the top 3 in the market – 6 won at double-figure SPs.
I’ve studied the last 20 renewals of the Champion Hurdle and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us
pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field.
Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most
recent renewals)
• All the last 20 winners had raced at least 5 times over hurdles
(16 had raced at least 10 times)
• 19 had appeared on the track since Christmas • 19 had already run over hurdles at Cheltenham (17
registering a top 3 finish)
• 18 had scored a Racing Post rating of 156+ at 16f or 17f • 18 had a winning strike rate of 33%+ over hurdles
• 18 had a strike rate of 40%+ over hurdles at 16f or 17f
• 18 had raced no more than 20 times over hurdles • 17 had won a hurdle race in a field of 15+ runners
• 17 had produced a top-4 finish at the previous season’s Festival (Annie Power would have had she stood-up at the
last obstacle in the Mares Hurdle)
• 17 were aged 6- to 8-years-old • 17 had scored a career-best RPR over hurdles of 159+
• 16 had appeared in a G1 hurdle race that season
• 16 had raced over hurdles at 18f+ (14 registering a win) • 16 had won last time out
• 16 had not been outside the first 3 in any completed hurdle
race that term • 15 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 hurdle races
• 15 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating over hurdles of
150+
• 15 had won either a G1 or a G2 hurdle race that season
• 14 had run 3 or 4 times over hurdles that season
• 13 had scored 154+ at a trip beyond 17f • 12 of the last 14 winners had a won a G1 over hurdles at 16f
or 17f
• 10 of the last 14 winners had hit the top 3 in a hurdle race worth £40k+ that season
• 10 of the last 14 winners had won a hurdle race worth £52k+
Horses that best-measure up to the blueprint can be considered
strong contenders in this season’s renewal. And if you can find a
contender at a juicy price then that’s all the better….
The Profile of a Champion Chase winner
The Champion Chase is the feature race of Day 2 at the Cheltenham
Festival and is the pinnacle event in racing for chasers over the
minimum distance.
The list of recent winners reads like a Who’s Who of 21st Century
chasers and this race has very rarely produced a freak result. The
only downside is that the race rarely attracts a big field. But the
race is never less than exciting with quality chasers taking their
fences at real speed.
This is a Grade 1 event for chasers over 2 miles and 12 fences on
Cheltenham’s Old course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and older. Weights are set at 11-10. Mares benefit from the standard 7lb
allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 2 winners of the Champion Chase, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase
runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed
ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2017 Special Tiara G GB 10 159 22 46 170 156 11/1 Henry De Bromhead
2016 Sprinter Sacre G FR 10 170 16 80 190 165 5/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2015 Dodging Bullets G GB 7 171 9 53 173 159 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls
2014 Sire De Grugy G FR 8 169 11 53 174 158 11/4 F Gary Moore
2013 Sprinter Sacre G FR 7 179 7 46 178 165 1/4 F Nicky Henderson
2012 Finian's Rainbow G IRE 9 164 7 53 167 154 4/1 2 Nicky Henderson
2011 Sizing Europe G IRE 9 160 9 45 166 166 10/1 Henry De Bromhead
2010 Big Zeb G IRE 9 165 13 45 171 159 10/1 C A Murphy
2009 Master Minded G FR 6 186 10 53 186 185 4/11 F Paul Nicholls
2008 Master Minded G FR 5 170 6 33 168 143 3/1 2 Paul Nicholls
2007 Voy Por Ustedes G FR 6 167 9 32 167 160 5/1 3 Alan King
2006 Newmill G IRE 8 0 8 55 155 155 16/1 John Joseph Murphy
2005 Moscow Flyer G IRE 11 0 22 45 181 177 6/4 F Mrs John Harrington
2004 Azertyuiop G FR 7 172 8 32 179 161 15/8 2 Paul Nicholls
2003 Moscow Flyer G IRE 9 0 11 38 168 140 7/4 F Mrs John Harrington
2002 Flagship Uberalles G IRE 8 169 18 95 173 177 7/4 F Philip Hobbs
2000 Edredon Bleu G FR 8 160 16 39 167 171 7/2 2 Henrietta Knight
1999 Call Equiname G GB 9 150 4 53 157 164 7/2 2 Paul Nicholls
1998 One Man G IRE 10 0 24 35 179 167 7/2 3 Gordon Richards
1997 Martha's Son G GB 10 0 12 21 167 161 9/1 T A Forster
Yards with form – Paul Nicholls has been the man with the right
horses in recent times – with the likes of Azertyuiop, Master
Minded and, more recently, Dodging Bullets, flying the Ditcheat flag. Nicky Henderson has won three of the last 6 renewals. The
bottom line is that past form counts for little. You need the right
horse right now.
Market pointer – The market has been a decent guide in recent times with 15 of the winners since 1997 going off in the front 3
market positions. Only two of the last 20 winners went off at an SP
bigger than 10s.
I’ve studied the last 20 renewals of the Queen Mother Champion Chase and I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that
will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this
year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most
recent renewals)
• 19 of the last 20 winners had already won at least 4 times
over fences
• 19 had raced at least 6 times over fences • 18 had scored a best chasing RPR of 166+
• 18 had scored a best of 154+ on the Topspeed scale
• 18 had won a Grade 1 or a Grade 2 chase that term • 18 had already won or finished 2nd in an Open Grade 1 chase
(11 had won one of last two such races contested)
• 18 had raced at 16f or 17f over fences last time out • 17 were operating at a strike rate of 50%+ at 16f to 17f over
fences
• 17 had scored 163+ last time out over fences
• 17 had been off the track between 32 and 55 days
• 17 had scored career-best chasing RPR over fences at 16f or
17f • 17 had already raced over fences at the track (13 producing a
win)
• 16 had an overall strike rate of 50%+ over fences • 16 had contested a Grade 1 chase that term
• 16 had appeared at a previous Festival (11 securing a top 3 finish)
• 15 were no older than 9-years-old (incl. 11 of last 14 winners)
• 15 had won last chase completed • 15 had won at trips of 18f+ (just 2 had gone beyond 21f)
• 13 of the last 14 winners appeared in a Grade 1 or Grade 2
chase last time out • 12 of the last 14 winners had run 2 to 4 times that season
• 12 of the last 14 winners had won a chase worth £50k+ to
winning connections • 11 of the last 14 winners had raced no more than 15 times
over fences
Another very strong set of Winning Profile stats there which will enable you to pinpoint the best-qualified contenders and swerve the
horses that will be running for pride and down-the-order money….
The Profile of a Stayers’ Hurdle winner
The World Hurdle is the Championship event for the staying
hurdlers. Working with the stats for this race is slightly confused by the fact that 3 horses – Big Buck’s, Inglis Drever and Baracouda
– won 9 of the last 19 renewals between them. With that in mind I
have focused most attention on figures extracted from the 14
renewals since 1997 to feature a first-time winner.
This is Grade 1 event contested over 3 miles and 12 hurdles on
Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 4 and
older. The 4yos carry 11-01. The older horses carry 11-10. Mares
get the 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 20 winners of the Stayers’
Hurdle, their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of hurdle
runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going into the race, staring price, market position and
trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Hdl R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2017 Nichols Canyon G GB 7 161 15 46 166 156 10/1 W P Mullins
2016 Thistlecrack G GB 8 168 9 47 172 133 Evs F Colin Tizzard
2015 Cole Harden G IRE 6 158 10 47 158 135 14/1 Warren Greatrex
2014 More Of That G IRE 6 160 4 89 161 118 15/2 3 Jonjo O'Neill
2013 Solwhit G FR 9 154 20 54 165 167 17/2 C Byrnes
2012 Big Buck's G FR 9 174 19 47 178 154 5/6 F Paul Nicholls
2011 Big Buck's G FR 8 174 14 78 176 147 10/11 F Paul Nicholls
2010 Big Buck's G FR 7 174 10 79 176 145 5/6 F Paul Nicholls
2009 Big Buck's G FR 6 170 6 47 166 96 6/1 3 Paul Nicholls
2008 Inglis Drever G GB 9 172 20 47 170 162 11/8 F Howard Johnson
2007 Inglis Drever G GB 8 163 16 47 167 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson
2006 My Way De Solzen G FR 6 157 10 25 159 122 8/1 Alan King
2005 Inglis Drever G GB 6 157 9 26 165 162 5/1 3 Howard Johnson
2004 Iris's Gift G GB 7 168 8 33 173 160 9/2 2 Jonjo O'Neill
2003 Baracouda G FR 8 0 17 83 176 147 9/4 J F Doumen
2002 Baracouda G FR 7 0 14 20 176 147 13/8 F F Doumen
2000 Bacchanal G IRE 6 163 6 47 165 147 11/2 3 Nicky Henderson
1999 Anzum G GB 8 148 16 20 157 151 40/1 David Nicholson
1998 Princeful G IRE 7 0 9 42 147 140 16/1 Jenny Pitman
1997 Karshi G GB 7 0 8 36 146 143 20/1 Henrietta Knight
Yards with form – Trainers that have handled any one of the multiple winners clearly stand out on the stats. Of the rest, Alan
King’s runners are worth a look. He’s saddled just one winner but 4
of his other 14 runners hit the frame.
Market pointers – Thirteen of the last 20 winners could be found
in the top 3 of the market.
I’ve studied each of the last 20 renewals, but I’ve focused my
attention most closely on the 14 renewals since 1997 featuring
first-time winners of the race. I’ve identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders
and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most
recent renewals)
• All the last 14 first-time winners had won at least twice over hurdles
• All 14 had raced no more than 25 times under rules in total
(on flat, in bumpers, over hurdles or over fences) • 13 had appeared over hurdles at Cheltenham (9 producing a
top 2 finish)
• 13 had won a race against at least 10 opponents • 12 were operating over hurdles at a winning strike rate in
excess 37.5%+ • 12 had scored a career-best hurdling RPR of 157+ (8 had
scored 165+)
• 12 had scored career-best RPR in one of last 3 races • 11 of the last 13 first-time winners were aged 6 or 7
• 12 had run between 2 and 4 times over hurdles that term
• 12 had raced in last 7 weeks • 11 of the last 14 first time winners had scored at least 133
over hurdles on the Topspeed scale
• 10 had appeared at a previous Festival (7 producing at least
one top 6 finish)
• 11 had scored 150+ last time out (9 had scored 156+)
• 11 had won a Grade race that season • 11 had already finished 1st or 2nd in an Open Grade 1 race
• 11 had raced between 6 and 15 times over hurdles
• 11 of the last 12 first-time winners contested a Grade race last time out
• 10 of the last 11 first-time winners had not been outside the
first 2 in a hurdle race that term • 6 had not run over hurdles at 24f+ (4 of those had scored
157+ at longest trip encountered)
• 7 of the last 10 first-time winners had won a hurdle race worth £37k+ to winning connections
• 6 of that 8 that had run over hurdles at 24f+ had produced a
win (and each of them had scored an RPR of 157+ at that kind of trip)
Those stats will guide you to the horses best-qualified and best-
equipped to prove competitive in this season’s premier event for
staying hurdlers….
Your chance to win two VIP tickets to
the Cheltenham Festival....
Racebets are giving new account holders an opportunity to win two
VIP tickets to the Cheltenham Festival....
You’ll need to open a new account, make an initial deposit of at
least £10 and then wager it fully....
But you’ll get a chance to win those tickets, you’ll also get bonus
cash up to £50 and you’ll have another useful account in your
armoury for the Festival – when Racebets might just the standout
price about the horse you want to back....
Full details here. Be sure to read the T&Cs to take full advantage....
The Profile of a Ryanair Chase winner
Since its introduction to the Festival programme in 2005 the Ryanair Chase has developed into something of a championship event for
the middle-distance chasers and – for my money at least –
represents one of the best races held at the meeting.
The race attracts decent fields of high-quality runners and has
produced some exciting finishes over the last few years.
This is a Grade 1 race run over the 21-furlong trip and 17 fences on
Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to horses aged 5 and
older. Weights are set at 11-10 with mares getting the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 13 winners of the Ryanair Chase,
their sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going
into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
R
2017 Un De Sceaux G FR 9 171 11 47 174 155 7/4 F W P Mullins
2016 Vautour G FR 7 176 6 82 180 150 Evs F W P Mullins
2015 Uxizandre G FR 7 161 9 33 166 130 16/1 Alan King
2014 Dynaste G FR 8 169 7 77 175 127 3/1 F David Pipe
2013 Cue Card G GB 7 165 8 26 170 156 7/2 2 Colin Tizzard
2012 Riverside Theatre G GB 8 168 8 26 172 160 7/2 F Nicky Henderson
2011 Albertas Run G IRE 10 166 22 61 171 152 6/1 2 Jonjo O'Neill
2010 Albertas Run G IRE 9 162 17 26 171 148 14/1 Jonjo O'Neill
2009 Imperial Commander G IRE 8 156 5 76 160 160 6/1 2 Nigel Twiston-Davies
2008 Our Vic G IRE 10 165 17 47 173 166 4/1 2 David Pipe
2007 Taranis G FR 6 152 7 40 158 151 9/2 3 Paul Nicholls
2006 Fondmort G FR 10 157 27 26 165 160 100/30 J Nicky Henderson
2005 Thisthatandtother G IRE 9 155 11 47 164 159 9/2 2 Paul Nicholls
Yards with form – Jonjo O’Neill has won this twice and placed
once but all because of one horse – Albertas Run. Willie Mullins is
also a two-time winner. Where strong performances from multiple
horses are concerned it’s a case of the same old story. Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls are the men with the best records.
Henderson has had 2 winners and three places from 17 runners.
Nicholls has produced 2 winners and 2 places from his 16 representatives. David Pipe has produced in this race too – 6
runners producing two wins and a place. Alan King’s last 8
participants have produced a win and two place finishes.
Market pointers – Consensus horses have been to the fore in the short history of this race. Eleven of the 13 winners to date were
sent off in the front 3 of the market.
I’ve studied the 13 renewals of the Ryanair Chase to date and I’ve
identified a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live contenders and the best bets in this year’s field.
Here’s what I discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most
recent renewals)
• All the previous 13 winners had run in a chase at Cheltenham (12 finishing in top 2 and 9 hitting that level multiple times)
• All 13 had been off the track at least 26 days
• 12 had appeared at a previous Festival (11 registering at least one top 5 finish)
• 12 had run in 2 to 4 chases that term
• 12 were officially rated 155+ (9 of the last 10 were rated 161+)
• 12 had scored a career-best RPR over fences of 160+
• 12 had won at least 4 times over fences
• 12 had appeared in a G1 or G2 chase last time out • 11 had raced at least 7 times over fences
• 11 had a Dosage Profile with a CD figure of 0.33 or lower. Get
the figures for this year’s field here:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/ • 11 had scored an RPR of 160+ in one of last 3 races over
fences
• 11 had finished in the first 3 in a Graded chase that term
• 11 had a chase strike-rate of 30%+ • 11 had raced no more than 17 times over fences
• 10 had scored an RPR of 160+ at 20f to 22f over fences
• 10 had won at least 2 chases at 19f to 22f • 10 had finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last two chases
contested
• 10 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+ • 10 of the last 11 winners had contested a race worth £80k+
that term (8 producing a top 3 finish)
• 10 of the last 13 winners had already won a chase worth at least £50k to winning connections
• All the last 10 winners had run in a Grade 1 chase that term
• 9 had a strike rate of 33%+ over fences at 19f to 22f • 9 had contested races at 24f+ over fences (7 producing
performances worth 164+)
• 9 were aged 7- to 9-years-old
Another strong Winning Profile with a range of significant and
informative stats which will swiftly draw your attention to the
runners most likely to be competitive in this season’s renewal….
The Profile of a Gold Cup winner
The finale of the Festival (at least as far as we are concerned) is the
feature race of the week – the Gold Cup. This is the most prestigious of all NH races – the richest on the programme. The
horse that wins is pretty much seen as the Premier Champion of the
sport. The race tests just about everything a horse can be tested on – speed, jumping, stamina, heart, character and temperament –
and represents the ultimate test in jumps racing.
The race is a Grade 1 event contested over the extended 26f trip and 22 fences on Cheltenham’s New course. The race is open to
horses aged 5 and older. The 5yos carry 11-09. Older horses carry 11-10. Mares get the standard 7lb allowance.
Course Map
The table below highlights the last 20 winners of the Gold Cup, their
sex, breeding, age, official ratings, number of chase runs, days since last run, best Racing Post ratings & Topspeed ratings going
into the race, staring price, market position and trainer….
Year Horse Sex Bred Age OR Chs R
Days BRR BTS SP Fav Trainer
2017 Sizing John G GB 7 167 9 33 170 147 7/1 Mrs John Harrington
2016 Don Cossack G GER 9 175 18 64 181 165 9/4 F Gordon Elliott
2015 Coneygree G GB 8 166 3 34 169 152 7/1 2 Mark Bradstock
2014 Lord Windermere G IRE 8 152 9 33 157 123 20/1 J H Culloty
2013 Bobs Worth G IRE 8 171 5 104 174 164 11/4 F Nicky Henderson
2012 Synchronised G IRE 9 167 8 79 171 151 8/1 3 Jonjo O'Neill
2011 Long Run G FR 6 179 9 62 181 163 7/2 F Nicky Henderson
2010 Imperial Commander G IRE 9 174 9 83 177 173 7/1 3 Nigel Twiston-Davies
2009 Kauto Star G FR 9 177 20 77 184 176 7/4 F Paul Nicholls
2008 Denman G IRE 8 176 8 34 183 157 9/4 2 Paul Nicholls
2007 Kauto Star G FR 7 176 10 34 184 169 5/4 F Paul Nicholls
2006 War Of Attrition G IRE 7 0 9 79 167 139 15/2 3 M F Morris
2005 Kicking King G IRE 7 0 11 82 177 160 4/1 F T J Taaffe
2004 Best Mate G IRE 9 175 12 81 178 168 8/11 F Henrietta Knight
2003 Best Mate G IRE 8 170 9 77 176 166 13/8 F Henrietta Knight
2002 Best Mate G IRE 7 169 6 78 172 165 7/1 3 Henrietta Knight
2000 Looks Like Trouble G IRE 8 170 10 47 173 170 9/2 2 Noel Chance
1999 See More Business G IRE 9 166 13 47 172 166 16/1 Paul Nicholls
1998 Cool Dawn G IRE 10 0 12 40 163 153 25/1 Robert Alner
1997 Mr Mulligan G IRE 9 0 7 78 170 163 20/1 Noel Chance
Yards with form – Paul Nicholls had the boss hand for quite a
few years with Kauto Star and Denman in his arsenal. More
recently Nicky Henderson has come to the fore with 2 winners in
the last 7 years.
Market pointers – It is always tempting to try and find a
Hollywood bet in these big races – but this is one race where that
policy has failed in recent times. 15 of the last 17 winners emerged from the front 3 in the market – and only the 2014 winner, Lord
Windermere and 2017 winner Sizing John went off bigger than
8s. By the time this race comes around the market generally has a
good handle on the participants.
I’ve studied the last 20 renewals of the Gold Cup and I’ve identified
a series of key statistical indicators that will help us pinpoint the live
contenders and the best bets in this year’s field. Here’s what I
discovered….
Primary Pointers – (the strongest stats produced by the most
recent renewals)
• All the last 20 winners had produced career-best chase RPR at
24f to 27f • All 20 had been off the track at least 5 weeks (9 of the last 14
winners had been off the track for 62+ days) • 19 had appeared at a previous Festival (14 had made the top
3 in a Festival race)
• 19 had raced at least 5 times over fences • 19 had raced in no more than 18 races in total
• 19 had won at least 3 races over fences
• 18 appeared at Newbury, Cheltenham, Leopardstown or Kempton last time out
• 18 had raced in no more than 13 chases (8 of the last 10
winners has raced in no more than 9) • 18 were aged 7- to 9-years-old
• 18 had run at least twice over fences that season
• 18 had run no more than 4 times over fences that season
• 18 had contested a Grade 1 chase that season (14 hitting the front 2)
• 18 contested a G1 or a G2 chase last time out
• 18 had scored an RPR of at least 162 last time out • 18 had made the top 2 in a Grade 1 chase over 24f to 27f
• 18 had form over the Cheltenham fences (16 having hit the
top 3 in a chase at the track) • 17 had scored a career-best Topspeed rating of 150+
• 17 had scored a career-best chasing RPR of 169+
• 17 had won that season • 16 had scored career-best rating in one of last 3 races over
fences
• 15 of the 16 previous winners with an official rating going into
the race were rated 166+
• 15 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 14 were bred in Ireland • 14 had a strike-rate of 40%+ over fences at trips of 24f to 27f
• 13 of the last 14 winners had a strike-rate of 45%+ over
fences • 12 of the last 14 winners had already won an Open Grade 1
chase at some point in their chasing career (10 had won one
of the last two such races contested) • 7 of the last 11 winners had won a chase worth at least £70k
that term
The bigger the race the stronger the range of statistical credentials a horse must possess. Winning Profiles don’t get any stronger than
the one above. Horses that tick most boxes are the ones on which
you should be betting….
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As a thank you for signing up to receive this report, you’ll also
receive my FREE Against the Crowd – Extra emails, where we look
for big prices in a big race every weekend.
And when it comes to the Festival…
Don’t miss my DAILY Cheltenham advice…
My full, members-only Against the Crowd service runs all through
the week, all year round.
And for Cheltenham Festival and the other big meetings on
the calendar, we go daily…
Against the Crowd is an exclusive club that grants access to all my
race advice and analysis. Including dedicated coverage of the full
Cheltenham week, day by day. And my picks for each day’s target races at the Festival…
You are welcome to step inside and take a look around, with a Free Trial...
Find out more about Against the Crowd – and help yourself to a 14-
day Free Trial – on the link below.
Join me at Cheltenham…
https://shop.oxonpress.co.uk/ATCFBK
Best wishes,
Nick Pullen
Against the Crowd