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CHELAN-DOUGLAS COUNTIES

2018 ECONOMIC PROFILE

CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH

CENTER OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH • 3

[email protected] • 360-650-3909

2 • ABOUT THIS REPORT


We begin with the county demographics to provide a starting point for further discussions about data found in this profile. Since 2010, Chelan’s population has grown 6.3 percent, comparable to the national rate of 6 percent. Douglas’ population growth has been more rapid, increasing 11.7 percent over the same period, a rate that is closer to the 12.1 percent growth rate of Washington State. Given Douglas’ small population, this faster expansion could push it to closer resemble Chelan in size. Considering its rurality, the Chelan-Douglas region’s low median household and per capita incomes and higher poverty rate than both Washington and the US are not surprising. Many rural counties still have not seen the post-recession recovery in labor markets that have been noted in suburbs and cities.

County Demographics

Chelan County

Douglas County Washington

UnitedStates

Population

Population estimates, July 1, 2018 77,036 42,907 7,535,591 327,167,434

Population estimates base, April 1, 2010 72,460 38,427 6,724,540 308,758,105

Population, percent change - April 1, 2010 (estimates base) to July 1, 2018

6.3% 11.7% 12.1% 6.0%

Population, Census, April 1, 2010 72,753 38,431 6,724,540 308,745,538

Labor Force

In civilian labor force, total, percent of population age 16 years+, 2013-2017

61.0% 61.6% 63.4% 63.0%

In civilian labor force, female, percent of population age 16 years+, 2013-2017

55.3% 55.6% 58.3% 58.2%

Income and Poverty

Median household income (in 2017 dollars), 2013-2017 $54,975 $55,805 $66,174 $57,652

Per capita income in past 12 months (in 2016 dollars), 2013-2017

$27,605 $25,060 $34,869 $31,177

Persons in poverty, percent 13.3% 13.4% 11.0% 12.3%Source: US Census

About this ReportThe following report is intended to give a basic overview of the local economy while illustrating factors that may impact it. Unless otherwise stated, the data in this report is the most recent complete annual data for the region, which at the time of publication is 2018.

About the Authors The Center for Economic and Business Research is an outreach center at Western Washington University located within the College of Business and Economics. The Center connects the resources found throughout the University to assist for-profit, non-profit, government agencies, quasi-government entities, and tribal communities in gathering and analyzing useful data. We use a number of collaborative approaches to help inform our clients so that they are better able to hold policy discussions and craft decisions.

The Center employs students, staff and faculty from across the University as well as outside resources to meet the individual needs of those we work with. Our work is based on academic approaches and rigor that not only provides a neutral analysis perspective but also provides applied learning opportunities. We focus on developing collaborative relationships with our clients and not simply delivering an end product.

The approaches we utilize are insightful, useful, and are all a part of the debate surrounding the topics we explore; however, none are absolutely fail-safe. Data, by nature, is challenged by how it is collected and how it is leveraged with other data sources; following only one approach without deviation is ill-advised. We provide a variety of insights within our work – not only on the topic at hand but the resources (data) that inform that topic.

The Center for Economic and Business Research is directed by Hart Hodges, Ph.D. and James McCafferty.

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4 • EMPLOYMENT DATA


In 2018, Chelan’s annual unemployment rate was 4.5 percent. In Douglas, unemployment was 5.3 percent; both rates decreased from 2017. Management of companies and enterprises had the highest average annual wages in 2018 at $76,957, while educational services had the lowest at $12,162.

In 2018, 44,024 of the 60,268 people that worked in either Chelan or Douglas lived within the region. 16,254 people commuted to Chelan-Douglas for work. 4,822 people lived in Chelan County but worked elsewhere, while 11,903 people from Douglas County commuted out of the region.

Chelan County’s commute increased from 18.4 minutes in 2017 to 18.6 in 2018. Meanwhile, Douglas’ decreased from 18.6 to 18.2 minutes. Both were slightly shorter than the state average of 23.2 minutes. San Juan and Mason Counties represent the shortest and longest commutes respectively at 14.9 and 32.1 minutes.

Industry subsectors 2018 Q2 FirmsTotal

annual wages paid

Average employment

Average annual wage

Management of companies and enterprises 6 $3,240,323 38 $85,272

Healthcare and social assistance 488 $367,099,678 6169 $59,507

Utilities 9 $547,534 10 $54,753

Finance and insurance 78 $35,151,423 657 $53,503

Government 95 $369,372,909 6911 $53,447

Wholesale trade 107 $115,080,194 2263 $50,853

Construction 409 $83,339,788 1718 $48,510

Professional and technical services 197 $41,218,791 875 $47,107

Information 38 $17,972,740 398 $45,158

Manufacturing 128 $77,431,691 1845 $41,968

Transportation and warehousing 51 $15,752,385 436 $36,129

Administrative and waste services 152 $36,052,823 1027 $35,105

Not Elsewhere Classified 15 $2,144,348 68 $31,535

Other services, except public administration 202 $24,028,817 806 $29,812

Retail trade 318 $127,585,070 4386 $29,089

Real estate and rental and leasing 119 $16,117,504 563 $28,628

Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 527 $275,289,498 10418 $26,424

Accommodation and food services 302 $95,594,657 4690 $20,383

Arts, entertainment, and recreation 54 $8,986,718 542 $16,581

Educational services 28 $1,513,664 100 $15,137

Total 3322 $1,713,520,555 43920 $39,015

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

Source: Washington State ESD

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Mason County

Chelan County

Douglas County

San Juan County

Mean Commute Time (Minutes)

Source: JobsEQ

57%

21%

22%

Chelan-Douglas Counties Labor Force

Live & work in Chelan-Douglas Only work in Chelan-Douglas Only live in Chelan-Douglas

Source: JobsEQ

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Unemployment Rate

Chelan County Douglas County Washington State



6 • CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE

Median Resale Price

2015 2016 2017 2018

Chelan County 6.8% 12.3% 10.1% 8.4%

Douglas County -1.6% 16.6% 5.1% 10.8%

Washington State 10.2% 10.3% 8.8% 1.1%

Building Permits Annual Percent Change

2015 2016 2017 2018

Chelan County 67.6% na 9.9% 8.1%

Douglas County 0.0% na 6.7% 6.2%

Washington State 25.1% 86.2% 7.9% -13.7%

All Sales Annual Change

2015 2016 2017 2018

Chelan County 108.5% 15.3% -1.0% -2.0%

Douglas County 103.8% 38.0% 0.0% 14.3%

Washington State -6.3% 24.6% 7.1% -3.0%

Average Apartment Rent

2015 2016 2017 2018

Chelan-Douglas Counties

4.7% 30.1% -13.6% 20.9%

Washington State 8.5% 9.5% 4.4% 8.5%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Chelan-Douglas Counties Washington State

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


While Washington State and Chelan County maintained slow house resale price growth, Douglas County exhibited an uptick in growth, more than doubling the annual rate of change from 2017. Washington and Chelan County reflect the slowing national housing market, whereas Douglas County presents anomalous results.

Building permits often fluctuate significantly, due in part to a small denominator which makes even small changes look large. Year-over-year growth in building permits slowed between 2016 and 2017 at a statewide level, with negative growth in 2018. Growth rates have remained fairly constant between 2016 and 2018 in Chelan and Douglas Counties.

Building Permits Annual Percent Change

Median House Resale Price

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


In 2018, both Washington State and Chelan County exhibited minimal change in growth of total housing sales at -2 percent and -3 percent, respectively. Douglas presented a 14.3 percent growth rate in 2018, up from growth in the previous year, meaning that sales are increasing at a faster rate than the prior year.

Average apartment rents have been especially volatile in recent years for Chelan and Douglas Counties, with a decline of -13.6 percent in 2017. Washington State rent growth as a whole has remained fairly constant. The significant drop in apartment rent growth was reversed in 2018 with a growth rate of 20.9 percent for the counties.

All Housing Sales Annual Change

Average Apartment Rent

Source: UW Runstad Department of Real [email protected] • 360-650-3909

Nearly a quarter of all jobs in the Wenatchee MSA are in the Agriculture sector,

but, due to their seasonal nature, only account for 16.1% of total wage income

Private health services provided 21.4% of all wage income, while

accounting for 14% of jobs

Pangborn Memorial Airport had a record amount of passengers in themml summer of 2018

The region produces enough apples to make 5,755 apple pies per capita, or to �ll 118.33 Olympic swimming pools with apple sauce

The Wenatchee district grows 45% of PNW sweet cherries, 85% of Washintgon’swinter pears and 25% of the State’s apples

With a depth of 1,486 ft, Lake Chelan is the 3rd deepest lake in the country,

and 26th deepest in the world

12

34

56

78

910

1112



10 • RETAIL SALES


$10,000 $12,000 $14,000 $16,000 $18,000 $20,000 $22,000 $24,000 $26,000 $28,000 $30,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Taxable Retail Sales Per Capita

Douglas County Chelan County Washington State

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Taxable Sales in Top Sectors

Construction Wholesale Retail

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Taxable Retail Sales(In millions)

Douglas County Total Chelan County Total

Chelan County’s total taxable retail sales for 2018 were twice those of Douglas County. Since 2009, Douglas County’s sales have increased by 112 percent and Chelan County’s have increased by 66 percent.

Between 2017 and 2018, the retail and wholesale trade sectors saw a decrease in their share of total taxable sales. Construction, on the other hand, now makes up approximately 21 percent of total taxable sales.

Both Chelan and Douglas have seen higher per capita retail sales than the state. This is to be expected in counties with small populations and cities, like Wenatchee, with strong retail sectors.

$- $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Was

hing

ton

Stat

e

Chel

an-D

ougl

as C

ount

ies

Gross Business Income(In millions)

Chelan Douglas Washington State

Chelan County has more retail than Douglas, resulting in a higher GBI. In 2018, GBI in Chelan grew by $174 million, which is lower than its five year average of $318 million. Douglas grew by $63 million, which is on par with its five year average of $60 million.

Washington State experienced a sharp increase in out of state and foreign sales in 2018. Chelan and Douglas Counties, increased by $15 million, compared to an average annual growth of $35 million over the prior three years.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Out of State/Foreign Sales(In millions)

In 2018, Chelan and Douglas Counties produced approximately three gallons of wine per capita, whereas Washington produced double that amount with six gallons per capita. 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Wine Production (Gallons Per Capita)

Chelan-Douglas Counties Washington State

Source: Washington State Department of Revenue



12 • EDUCATION PERFORMANCE


2015-16 Academic Year Statistics

Enrolled in Washington Enrolled Out of State Total

DistrictTotal

(In State) Public 4 yr Private 4 yr Public 2 yr Private 2 yr

Total(Out of State)

Public 4 yr Private 4 yr Public 2 yr Private 2 yr HS Graduates% Going to

College

Bridgeport 90-100% 11-19% 0-10% 70-79% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 62 35-39%

Camas 74% 31% 4% 39% 0-1% 26% 10% 13% 3% 0-1% 471 66%

Cascade 85-89% 30-34% 0-5% 50-54% 0-5% 10-14% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 109 60-64%

Cashmere 90-94% 30-34% 0-5% 55-59% 0-5% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 101 60-64%

Eastmont 93% 32% 3% 59% 0-2% 7% 0-2% 3% 0-2% 0-2% 426 54%

Entiat 80-100% 60-79% 0-20% 21-39% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 21 50-59%

Grand Coulee Dam

80-89% 40-49% 0-10% 30-39% 0-10% 20-29% 11-19% 0-10% 0-10% 0-10% 40 50-59%

Lake Chelan 85-89% 50-54% 0-5% 35-39% 0-5% 10-14% 6-9% 0-5% 0-5% 0-5% 110 55-59%

Manson 80-100% 21-39% 0-20% 60-79% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 0-20% 30 50-59%

Wenatchee 93% 30% 2% 60% 0-1% 7% 3% 4% 0-1% 0-1% 540 60%

Statewide 82% 33% 5% 44% 0-1% 18% 8% 8% 2% 0-1% 69163 59% Source: Education Research & Data Center

Source: Education Research & Data Center Source: Education Research & Data Center

With the exception of Bridgeport School District, the Chelan-Douglas region has a similar secondary education enrollment rate to the rest of Washington at about 60 percent. Bridgeport reported a 35-39 percent enrollment rate in 2016. Upwards of 90 percent of students from Chelan-Douglas elected to stay in state, which is higher than the state average of 82 percent.

34%

30%

19%

17%

Out of State Destinations of Chelan-Douglas High School Students

(By School Type)

Public 4yr Private 4yr Public 2yr Private 2yr

0

50

100

150

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Chelan-Douglas Student Enrollment in Postsecondary Education by County of Origin

TESC (Evergreen State) EWU CWU WSU UW WWU

Of all the students from Chelan-Douglas that enrolled in secondary education within Washington regardless of the year they graduated, the majority attended WWU, then UW, WSU, CSU, EWU, and TESC (Evergreen State).



14 • REGIONAL COST OF LIVING


The cost of living indices provide a way to compare the costs of groceries, housing, utilities, transportation, healthcare, and other miscellaneous living costs between regions. A composite index of 100 indicates that the region has the same cost of living as the national average. In 2018, the cost of living in the Chelan-Douglas region was 110—above the national average. Compared to nearby counties like Skagit and Whatcom, however, Chelan-Douglas’ cost of living is relatively low. In neighboring King and Snohomish counties, composite costs are significantly higher due in large part to high housing costs.

Living wages are calculated by finding the point at which one-third of a worker’s total income is allocated to housing costs. For 2018, the minimum living wage was $21 per hour for a one bedroom apartment. Interestingly, the most costly lifestyle examined is associated with those renting a two bedroom apartment, with a minimum household wage of $28 per hour needed. The median household income in Chelan and Douglas for 2018 was about $55,000—enough to afford all median lifestyles. With minimum wage sitting at $13.50 an hour, a two-income household earning minimum wage can afford to rent a one-bedroom unit or a median home mortgage.

Note: Home purchase assumes 20% as down payment, 4% interest and is displayed as principal and interest only.

Regional Cost of Living 2018Composite Grocery Housing Utilities Transportation Healthcare Misc.

Goods and Services

Chelan-Douglas

110 108 121 77 116 120 106

Whatcom 116 108 127 87 121 121 115

Skagit 113 121 114 87 114 120 116

King 155 127 213 111 135 124 137

Washington 107 107 107 94 116 118 106

Living Wage (Chelan-Douglas Counties)

Housing Type Rate Required household hourly wage

Required household weekly wage

Rent 1 bedroom $1,143 $21 $857

Rent 2 bedroom $1,474 $28 $1,106

Median home mortgage $1,279 $24 $959

Source: UW Runstad Department of Real Estate and CEBR

Source: C2ER and bestplaces.net*Snohomish data estimated using King County and data from bestplaces.net for reference

16 • CHELAN-DOUGLAS COUNTIES ECONOMIC PROFILE


We are always seeking opportunities to bring the strengths of Western Washington University to fruition within our region. If you have a need for

analysis work or comments on this report, we encourage you to contact us at 360-650-3909. To learn more about CEBR visit us online at cebr.wwu.edu

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