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Nina Masson Chief Market Development Officer, shecco
Jan Dusek Business Development Manager, shecco Japan
Klara Skacanova Deputy Manager Market Development, shecco Europe
speakers:
GUIDE JAPAN 2016 - STATE OF THE INDUSTRY INTRODUCTION & OVERALL TRENDS
Nina holds two Master’s degrees in business Management and in Environmental Management. For the last 10 years, she has been working in the field of environmental technologies, where she has developed special expertise on natural refrigerants. Today, she is active in market development and consultancy services, as well as special projects and publications. She has been drafting and supervising global studies on behalf of United Nations agencies, as well as serving as an expert for EU and UN projects.
ABOUT THE GUIDE JAPAN
01
www.shecco.com
GUIDE JAPAN OVERVIEW
8
2016
GUIDE TO NATURAL REFRIGERANTS IN JAPAN
— STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
M A G A Z I N EADVANCING HVAC&R NATURALLY
SPECIAL EDITION JUNE 2016
GUIDE to Natural Refrigerants in Japan - State of the Industry 2016
• 1st ever comprehensive guide on natural refrigerants, market, technology and policy trends
• Technology & market maps
4 sectors in focus: commercial, light commercial, industrial refrigeration, heat pumps
Voice of key industry players
Industry survey
Market outlook
Case studies
www.shecco.com
GUIDE JAPAN OVERVIEW
9
2016
GUIDE TO NATURAL REFRIGERANTS IN JAPAN
— STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
M A G A Z I N EADVANCING HVAC&R NATURALLY
SPECIAL EDITION JUNE 2016
• supported by market leaders for natural refrigerants in Japan
• … serving a variety of applications
• available at: http://publications.shecco.com
www.shecco.com
SURVEY DRIVERS FOR NR USE IN JAPAN
10
Lack of negative environmental impact is the most important driver
Efficiency & performance and compliance with legislation are also very important factors
Financial incentives rank higher than in other regions indicating the important role that the subsidies for NR technology are playing in the market
= the importance of policy drivers
DYNAMIC MARKETS
02
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
North America has nearly 300,000 HFC-free units - 181,000 HC + 109,000 CO2 = 17 times more than 3 years ago
strong trend for HC use in food service
Europe has more than 2 million HFC-free units (also in ice cream freezers, bottle coolers etc.) - mostly HC
use for plug-in systems
use of HC also in refrigeration for food retail
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
China is quickly catching up with the uptake of NR-based equipment not only in light-commercial refrigeration (official launch of list of refrigerant alternatives for HFC phase down expected for September)
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
16
1.35 million beverage vending machines in Japan use either hydrocarbons or CO2
natural refrigerants make up over 50% of the market
from 0.1% to 52% market share in just 10 years ! = a clear Japanese success story
hydrocarbons carbon dioxide
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
17
with the world’s highest number of beverage vending machines per capita the use of NR in this sector will continue to have a significant impact on the overall market
BUT: Japan has not made similar progress in NR use for small plug-in units - a major trend in other world regions (especially for HC)
hydrocarbons carbon dioxide
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS CO2 TC STORES IN THE WORLD
19
… with different technology focus (CO2 TC vs. CO2 cascade), store
formats (large vs. CVS) & retailer commitment
south africa and indonesia stand out … again as a result
of individual food retailers’ drive to go CO2
three hot spots have emerged: europe, asia (mostly japan) and north america
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
20
from 190 CO2 stores to 1,500+ in just 2 years - a major success story putting Japan to the forefront of global CO2 adoption!
out of that 1,463 are small CVS which use less than 10 kW
= 4% of stores from Japan’s three leading CVS brands
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
21
BUT: only 72 supermarkets have CO2 TC refrigeration - one reason: the High Pressure Gas Safety Act slows down their use in larger systems
next trend: exporting Japanese CO2 technology to Indonesia, Taiwan, South East Asia …
… and to Europe and North America where there is a need for CVS refrigeration systems with natural refrigerants
www.shecco.com
SURVEY CO2 IS LEADING JAPAN’S NR MARKET
22
Japan has developed a strong technology leadership for CO2-based technology - a development that got fast-tracked after the introduction of R744 heat pumps more than 15 years ago… and that is now expanding to other application areas
www.shecco.com
DYNAMIC MARKETS INDUSTRIAL REFRIGERATION
23
the market is changing, from a strong reliance on R22 to a renewed uptake of (lower charge) NH3 systems
300+ installations use secondary NH3-CO2 systems
BUT: the use of CO2 transcritical systems still faces restrictions through the High Pressure Gas Safety Act (an emerging trend in other world regions)
NEXT: export of the technology to other regions
JAPAN’S NATURAL REFRIGERANT MARKET & KEY APPLICATIONS
Jan holds a Doctor of Engineering degree in System
Design from Hosei University in Tokyo and a Master’s
degree from the Czech Technical University in Prague.
During his studies, and research undertaken in the
USA, Europe and Japan, Jan has centered his
academic focus on environmental technologies and
marketing strategies. Jan is currently based in Tokyo,
responsible for business development activities in the
Asia-Pacific region on behalf of shecco Japan.
CURRENT NR USE IN JAPAN
03
LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
04
www.shecco.com
LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION VENDING MACHINES
35
1.35 million beverage vending machines in Japan use either hydrocarbons or CO2
natural refrigerants make up over 50% of the market
from 0.1% to 52% market share in just 10 years ! = a clear Japanese success story
hydrocarbons: 511,000 units carbon dioxide: 840,000 units
www.shecco.com 36
Coca-Cola Japan
“By 2020, all vending machines in the market with Natural Refrigerant”
130,000+ Peak Shift Vending Machines (CO2 VM)
power used for cooling is completely zero for up to 16 hours
power consumption during day time is reduced by up to 95%
LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 37
CO2 ejector technology
market installation started in 2015
recover the lost energy by using the high operating pressure
power consumption reduced by 25% compared with top class HFO vending machine
LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 38
• nearly 3/4 of survey respondents expect that NR in commercial refrigeration will continue to grow at least until 2020
• no survey respondents expect that the uptake of NR will decrease
• the use of hydrocarbons and CO2 is expected to grow in bottle coolers, plug-in cabinets, vending machines
BUT: stronger commitment for NR by local and global consumer brands is needed to avoid use of new unsaturated HFCs
LIGHT-COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EXPECTATIONS
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION
05
www.shecco.com 43
CO2 condensing units - mainstream NR solution
two major domestic suppliers, refrigeration units 2-20 HP (1.5-15kW)
2nd generation of CO2 TC systems, pressure control type, CO2 cascade refrigeration system
no ejectors yet, no integral systems yet
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 44
Typical CVS installation
Typical SM installation
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 45
First CO2 booster system in Japanese SM
42 HP unit, 4 compressors by GEA Bock (2MT, 2LT)
cooling capacity 33kW refrigeration + 7.5kW freezing
mid-size SM with 12 showcases for both MT and LT
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 46
Plug-in showcases available with CO2 and HC
number of Japanese manufacturers offer CO2 plug-in showcases
two European suppliers offer HC R290 plug-ins - first 200 units in the market (charge 70-120 grams of R290)
MOE subsidy available for both CO2 and HC plug-ins
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 47
New technology trends
larger CO2 condensing units, up to 30 HP
first CO2 booster systems in CVS, larger booster system pilots in SM
next challenges: NH3/CO2, ejectors, integral systems with larger CO2 systems, CO2 TC rack
COMMERCIAL REFRIGERATION EXPECTATIONS
INDUSTRIAL REFRIGERATION
06
www.shecco.com 49
NH3/CO2 secondary system - mainstream NR solution
prefabricated systems; reduced charge of NH3 down to 21kg per system; cooling capacity 100-300kW
two major domestic manufacturers, 300+ projects mainly in food manufacturing and cold stores, 1000+ units in the market
air as a refrigerant cycle for very low temperatures
MOE subsidy available for the sector
INDUSTRIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
www.shecco.com 50
New technology trends
first CO2 booster system to cool a tunnel freezer for food processing
NH3/CO2 cascade refrigeration systems - pilot projects planned for 2016
next challenges: NH3/CO2, ejectors, integral systems with larger CO2 systems, CO2 TC rack
INDUSTRIAL REFRIGERATION CASE STUDIES
HEAT PUMPS
07
www.shecco.com
HEAT PUMPS CO2 HP WATER HEATERS “ECOCUTE”
52
Eco Cute (CO2 heat pump) has been a run-away success, with strong government support
10 million expected by 2020
98% of all new residential HP water heaters
400-500k new units per year - 5 million+ in total
www.shecco.com 53
HEAT PUMPS CASE STUDIES
Technology trends
CO2 ejector, line up for cold climate, thin shape, high pressure
CO2 refrigeration cycle constantly improved since 2001 - other improvements on periphery (remote control, water tank, water pressure, connectivity,…)
next challenges: cost reduction
www.shecco.com 54
HEAT PUMPS CASE STUDIES
New technology trends
first hybrid HC heat pump water heater using R290, 2000 units in the market supplied by a Japanese manufacturer
CO2 competing with HC and R32 in the residential sector
JAPAN’S POLICY
Klara holds a Master’s degree in International Relations from t University of Economics in Bratislava, Slovakia. She is an expert on following legislative developments with an impact on the heating and cooling industry at national, European and international levels, and informs decision-makers about the latest trends in the field of natural refrigerants.
JAPAN PROMOTES NATURAL REFRIGERANTS
08
www.shecco.com
SURVEY POLICY DRIVERS FOR NR USE IN JAPAN
58
lack of negative environmental impact …..
efficiency & performance and
compliance with current & future legislation are also very important factors
financial incentives rank higher than in other regions indicating the important role that the subsidies for NR technology are playing in the market
www.shecco.com
SURVEY POLICY DRIVERS FOR NR USE IN JAPAN
59
government financial subsidies to end-users (purchase of equipment) & to manufacturers (R&D) are considered the most significant driver
global HFC phase-down could be an important driver once agreed
energy efficiency targets and training & certification requirements for NR are not seen as major drivers in Japan
www.shecco.com 60
JAPAN F-GAS LAW
effective as of April 2015
targets the entire life cycle of f-gases, from production to destruction
reduced f-gas leakage from commercial equipment: periodical checks, maintenance, reporting etc.; proper refill and recovery; obligation of destruction
promotion of low-GWP / non f-gases alternatives for designated products (incl. condensing units and refrigeration units > 1.5kW, cold storage warehouses,…)
www.shecco.com 62
JAPAN F-GAS LAW DESIGNATED PRODUCTS
instead of imposing bans on high GWP HFCs (such as EU F-Gas Regulation), Japan sets target per product group
GWP targets are set for sectors with highest environmental impact where low GWP or non-fluorinated replacements exist
compliance by manufacturers is measured as weighted average GWP value of entire production and import
www.shecco.com
preliminary calculation by MOE & METI shows the anticipated effect of measures on HFC emissions reduction
by 2030 promotion of low GWP alternatives is expected to deliver 5-8-times higher reductions than containment measures
63
2010 2020 2030
BAU 17.3 40.2 48.1
Promotion of low GWP alternatives
3.9 ~ 6.6 22.1 ~ 27.3
Containment from
commercial equipment
5.3 ~ 9.5 2.7 ~ 5.6
Total reduction 9.7 ~ 15.6 25.5 ~ 31.8
JAPAN F-GAS LAW EFFECT OF MEASURES
www.shecco.com 65
TOKYO SUBSIDIES PROMOTING NR LOCALLY
Tokyo Metropolitan Government promotes use of natural refrigerants
targets energy-efficient showcases using NR and provides up to 1/3 of installation cost
200 mil Yen ($1.7 mil) in 2016 (roughly 30 units)
aimed at small and medium-sized businesses
www.shecco.com 66
HIGH PRESSURE GAS SAFETY ACT BARRIER TO CO2
High Pressure Gas Safety Act(s) as a barrier for CO2 in larger equipment (supermarkets, industrial refrigeration)
CO2 equipment above 40~50 HP (30~37kW) effectively banned due to necessary administrative permissions & regular checks compared to other refrigerants
Act is outdated and many players are requesting a revision
www.shecco.com 67
TOP RUNNER PROGRAMME ENERGY EFFICIENCY
introduced in 1999 for energy-intensive products
sets energy efficiency requirements for 21 product categories (e.g. CO2 heat pumps - EcoCute)
encourages companies to develop more efficient models to compete for the ‘Top Runner’ award
government can issue recommendations or publish names of companies that fail to meet the targets - so far this has not happened
www.shecco.com 68
JAPAN’ INTERNATIONAL POLICY DRIVING NR USE GLOBALLY
Japan is committed to phasing out of HCFCs under the Montreal Protocol by 2020
supports global HFC phase-down in the on-going discussions under the Montreal Protocol = an amendment would lead to legislative changes in Japan
provides support for implementing projects in developing countries through Japan’s Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM)
= energy savings and f-gas emission reductions achieved by such projects translate into emission reduction credits and count towards meeting the country’s greenhouse gas reduction targets
example: CO2 transcritical technology introduced in Indonesia
CONCLUSIONS
09
www.shecco.com 70
TREND 1: GROWTH SECTORS FOR NR IN JAPAN
the use of CO2 in (light-)commercial
refrigeration and heat pumps, NH3-CO2 industrial refrigeration will continue
www.shecco.com 71
TREND 2: POTENTIAL FOR MORE NR IN JAPAN
near-term potential: HC in light commercial, CO2 in
industrial refrigeration, CO2 in supermarkets
www.shecco.com 72
TREND 2: POTENTIAL FOR MORE NR IN JAPAN
medium / long-term potential: moving towards
next-generation NR integrated systems in CVS and supermarkets = “all-natural” stores; CO2 mobile
air conditioning
www.shecco.com 73
TREND 4: JAPAN’S NR TECHNOLOGY IN THE WORLD
NR technologies tested and commercialised nationally
are increasingly reaching export markets where they have competitive advantage - NH3/CO2
industrial refrigeration, CO2 for convenience stores, CO2 heat pumps, CO2 light
commercial refrigeration…
MORE INFORMATION
10
www.shecco.com
AVAILABLE GUIDES
75
China 2015
North America 2015
Europe 2014
China Business Directory 2015 Japan 2016
www.shecco.com
AVAILABLE FREE MAGAZINES
76
Accelerate Japan
The Natural Voice Magazine
Accelerate Europe
Accelerate America Accelerate Australia & NZ
www.shecco.com
MORE INFORMATION
77
Industry Platforms:
www.hydrocarbons21.com
www.R744.com
www.ammonia21.com
www.R718.com
shecco Publications, incl.
GUIDEs
http://publications.shecco.com
Accelerate Magazines:
www.accelerate.shecco.com
ATMOsphere
conferences:
www.ATMO.org
#WebinarWednesday
www.webinarwednesday.net
The Natural Voice
www.thenaturalvoice.org