charting india

Charting

IndiaCEO’s Guide to The Economy

3Q 2021

ECONOMYCharting CEO’s Guide to

The Economy

ECONOMYCharting

CEO’s Guide to The Economy 2

To understand something, begin with questions, not information

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CEO’s Guide to The Economy

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3

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Why long-term economic growth?

To Improve the Living StandardHow to grow the economy in the long run?

Increase these 3 factors

Population (Labor)

Capital

Idea

The Long View: the Why and How of Economic Growth

Gross Income

Per Capita Income

Living Standard

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Short-term Objective: Balancing Growth and Stability

Inflation

Exchange Rate

BOP / External Debt

Private Consumption (C)

Public Consumption (G)

Growth Stability

Investment (I)

Net Export (X-M)

Fiscal Balance

Financial System

Employment

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• What is the size of India’s economy?

• What is the size of India’s population?

• What is the demographic structure of India? Is it favorable for economic growth?

• How has the structure of GDP changed over the years?

• How much does India’s economy rely on external trade?

• Where are the key economic regions in India?

• Economic Freedom Index: How free is India’s economy?

• How competitive is India?

• How are India’s competitive factors compared to those of other countries?

• How is the minimum wage in India compared to others in the region?

• How has labor productivity in India changed over the years, and in relation to comparable countries?

• Is it easy to do business in India?

• How good is India in attracting Foreign Direct Investment?

• What is the level of income for an average person in India?

• What is the poverty rate in India, and how does it compare to others?

• How has the unemployment rate in India changed over recent years?

• How is income distributed in India, and how does it compare to others?

• What is the current level of human development in India?

• How has the quality of life changed over the years?

• How many SDG has India achieved to date?

• What has been the growth rate of India’s economy over the past ten years, and how does it compare with others?

• What were the key growth drivers for India’s economy in the last year?

• How much does each sector contribute to the overall growth?

• What is the GDP growth rate in the latest quarter?

• What are the latest signals from the leading indicators?

• What is the growth outlook for India’s economy, and how does it compare with others?

• How early can the economy reopen from the Covid crisis?

• What is the risk of inflation over the next 12 months?

• What is the latest move on India’s monetary policy?

• What is the health of India’s banking sector?

• What has been the trend in India’s fiscal budget deficit?

• Balance of Payment: Where are the key risks?

• Does India have enough international reserves to service its debt and for import?

• What is the FX risk? How has the currency performed compared to others?

6

The Charting Economy Framework©

Understand Any Economy in 30 Questions or Less

Economic Structure Competitiveness Development Economic Growth Macro Risks

The Long View The Short View

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Official name: Republic of India

Brief history

• The Indus Valley civilization, one of the world's oldest, flourished during the 3rd and 2nd millennia B.C.

• Merger between Aryan and Dravidian inhabitants created the classical Indian culture

• By the 19th century, Great Britain had become the dominant political power on the subcontinent

• Years of nonviolent resistance to British rule, led by Mohandas GANDHI and Jawaharlal NEHRU, eventually resulted in Indian independence

• Economic growth following the launch of economic reforms in 1991 and a massive youthful population are driving India's emergence as a regional

and global power.

7

Government

Government type: federal republic

Capital: New Delhi

Currency: Indian rupees (INR)

Chief of state: President Ram Nath KOVIND (since 25 July 2017)

Head of government: Prime Minister Narendra MODI (since 26

May 2014)

Cabinet: Union Council of Ministers recommended by the prime

minister, appointed by the president

Election:• President indirectly elected by an electoral college consisting of

elected members of both houses of Parliament and state legislatures

for a 5-year term (next to be held in July 2022)

• Council of States - next originally scheduled for March, June, and

November 2020 but were postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic• House of the People - next to be held in 2024

Geography

Area: 3,287,263 sq km (#7 in the world)

Land boundaries:

• India 4,142 km

• Bhutan 659 km

• Burma 1,468 km

• China 2,659 km

• Nepal 1,770 km

• Pakistan 3,190 km

Land use (2011est.):

agriculture: 60.5%; forest: 23.1%; other: 16.4

Irrigated land: 67,220 sq km

Freshwater withdrawal per capita: 613 cu m/yr

Natural resources:

coal (fourth-largest reserves in the world), iron ore, manganese, mica,

bauxite, rare earth elements, titanium ore, chromite, natural gas, diamonds, petroleum, limestone, arable land

Source: CIA World factbook

Population and society

Population:

1,339,330,514 (July 2021 est., #2 in the world)

Ethnic group:

Indo-Aryan 72%, Dravidian 25%, Mongoloid and other 3% (2000)

Language:

Hindi 43.6%, Bengali 8%, Marathi 6.9%, Telugu 6.7%, Tamil 5.7%,

Gujarati 4.6%, Urdu 4.2%, Kannada 3.6%, Odia 3.1%, Malayalam

2.9%, Punjabi 2.7%, Assamese 1.3%, Maithili 1.1%, other 5.6%

(2011 est.)

Religions:

Hindu 79.8%, Muslim 14.2%, Christian 2.3%, Sikh 1.7%, other and

unspecified 2% (2011 est.)

Working age population (15-64 yr): 66.0%

Population growth rate: 1.04% (2021 est.)

India

ECONOMYCharting


1. Economic Structure2. Competitiveness

3. Economic Development

4. Economic Growth

5. Macro Risks

Appendix 1: IMF’s forecast

Appendix 2: Doing Business

Part of the country’s economic profile, economic structure section gives readers useful views to understand economic fundamental and determine what matters for the country’s

economy

8

What is the size of India’s economy?

What is the size of India’s population?

What is the demographic structure of India? Is it

favorable for economic growth?

How has the structure of GDP changed over the years?

How much does India’s economy rely on external

trade?

Where are the key economic regions in India?

Economic Freedom Index: How free is India’s

economy?

ECONOMYCharting


What is the size of India’s economy?

India is the 5th largest economy in the world and the 3rd largest in Asia behind China and Japan

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database April 2021

Note: (*) IMF Estimate

Asia Top 40 Economies2020, USD billion, Market Exchange Rate

5,049

2,709

1,631

1,060

701

669

636

502

362

354

349

341

340

338

329

263

172

165

146

China

Japan

India

South Korea

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia*

Taiwan

Iran

Thailand

Philippines

UAE*

Hong Kong

Vietnam*

Singapore*

Malaysia*

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Iraq

Kazakhstan

Qatar*

14,723 107.9

81.3

80.7

63.2

57.7

47.4

43.5

42.6

34.5

33.9

26.0

24.3

23.6

20.1

19.1

19.1

19.1

13.1

12.0

8.0

Kuwait*

Myanmar

Sri Lanka*

Oman*

Uzbekistan*

Turkmenistan*

Jordan*

Azerbaijan*

Nepal

Bahrain*

Cambodia*

Macao

Papua New Guinea*

Yemen*

Afghanistan*

Lebanon*

Laos*

Mongolia

Brunei*

Tajikistan*

ECONOMYCharting


What is the size of India’s population?

Population in India is the 2nd largest in the world, behind only those in China

Source: CIA World Fact book, UN’s World Population Prospects: The 2019 Revision

Most Populous CountriesTop 10, Million, July 2021 est.

Population GrowthAvg. Annual Rate of Change, Medium fertility, 2020-2025

0.257%

0.921%

0.560%

0.968%

1.845%

2.479%

0.599%

0.915%

-0.110%

0.962%

1,397.9

1,339.3

335.0

275.1

238.2

219.5

213.4

164.1

142.3

130.2

China

India

United States

Indonesia

Pakistan

Nigeria

Brazil

Bangladesh

Russia

Mexico

ECONOMYCharting


America: USD 1800 (74% saving)Argentina (4) Bolivia (2) Brazil (4) Canada (4)

Chile (4) Colombia (4) Costa Rica (2) Ecuador (2)

El Salvador (2) Honduras (2) Mexico (4) Panama (2)

Paraguay (2) Peru (4) United States (4) Uruguay (4)

Asia Pacific: USD 2500 (77% saving)Australia (4) Azerbaijan (2) Bangladesh (2) Brunei (2)

Cambodia (2) China (4) Hong Kong (4) India (4)

Indonesia (4) Japan (4) Kazakhstan (2) Laos (2)

Malaysia (4) Mongolia (4) Myanmar (2) Nepal (2)

New Zealand (4) Pakistan (2) Philippines (4) Singapore (4)

South Korea (4) Sri Lanka (4) Taiwan (4) Thailand (4)

Vietnam (4)

Europe: USD 4100 (77% saving)Albania (4) Armenia (4) Austria (4) Belarus (4)

Belgium (4) Bosnia and Herzegovina (4) Bulgaria (4) Croatia (4)

Cyprus (4) Czech republic (4) Denmark (4) Estonia (4)

Finland (4) France (4) Georgia (4) Germany (4)

Greece (4) Hungary (4) Iceland (4) Ireland (4)

Israel (4) Italy (4) Latvia (4) Lithuania (4)

Luxembourg (4) Malta (4) Netherlands (4) Norway (4)

Poland (4) Portugal (4) Romania (4) Russia (4)

Serbia (4) Slovakia (4) Slovenia (4) Spain (4)

Sweden (4) Switzerland (4) Turkey (4) Ukraine (4)

United Kingdom (4)

Middle East and Africa: USD 2500 (76% saving)Algeria (2) Bahrain (2) Benin (2) Botswana (2)

Cameroon (2) Cote d'Ivoire (2) Egypt (2) Ethiopia (2)

Ghana (2) Guinea (2) Jordan (2) Kenya (2)

Kuwait (2) Mauritius (2) Morocco (2) Nigeria (4)

Oman (2) Qatar (2) Rwanda (2) Saudi Arabia (2)

Senegal (2) South Africa (4) Tanzania (2) UAE (2)

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