charles wayne consulting orlando apartment trends 2011
TRANSCRIPT
CHARLES WAYNE
CONSULTING
ORLANDO APARTMENT TRENDSORLANDO APARTMENT TRENDS
2011
POPULATION GROWTHPOPULATION GROWTH
4,000
15,000
27,600
44,200
51,30049,900
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTHANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
55.3
44.7
27.318.4
-66.9
-13.9
4.5
29.638.9
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
BY PLACE OF WORK (000)BY PLACE OF WORK (000)
JOB GROWTH BY MONTHJOB GROWTH BY MONTH
F A J A O D F A J A O D F A J A O
BY PLACE OF WORK: 2008 – 2010 YTDBY PLACE OF WORK: 2008 – 2010 YTD
-18.9
5.06.8
0.8
3.7
-8.7-7.5
10.6
1.3
11.3
J F M A M J J A S O
M-O-M JOB GROWTH: 2010M-O-M JOB GROWTH: 2010BY PLACE OF WORK: 23,300 Y-T-DBY PLACE OF WORK: 23,300 Y-T-D
UNIT CLOSINGSUNIT CLOSINGS
11.4
17.9
6.8
13.4
2.9
4.63.3
2.7 2.31.3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Q1-3
CLOSING PRICES CLOSING PRICES $388,700
$349,000
$295,800
$247,700$229,500
$240,500$249,600
$220,800
$169,300$156,900
2006 Q4 2007 Q4 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q3
SF: -41%SF: -41%
MF: -37%MF: -37%
3,5003,800
4,700
5,200 5,200
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AVERAGE ANNUAL DEMANDAVERAGE ANNUAL DEMAND2011 - 20152011 - 2015
30.4% 22.5% 22.3% 22.5% 22.8%
OWNERS vs RENTERSOWNERS vs RENTERS
Owners
67%
Renters
33%
% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE% RENTER DEMAND BY TYPE
SF
28%
1+ Attached
5%2-4 Units13%
5+ Units
50%
Mobile Homes4%
Apartments
74%
Condos
26%
CONVERSION LOSSCONVERSION LOSS -140 PROJECTS / -39,000 UNITS
590 596 592
563 567
604
623 623
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
APARTMENTAPARTMENTCOMPLEXESCOMPLEXES
150,100151,000
147,200
134,500137,000
144,700
149,700151,200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
RENTABLE UNITSRENTABLE UNITS+1,500+1,500
RENTABLE UNITS BY BRsRENTABLE UNITS BY BRs
Studio2%
1BR
33%
2BR
47%
3BR
15%4BR
3%
UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTIONUNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION 13,000
8,200
5,6005,800
4,7003,9003,800
5,600
3,7003,200
1,500
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
OCCUPANCYOCCUPANCY
91.6%
94.8%96.1%
94.1%
90.8%89.6%
88.2%
91.1%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
90.7%92.8%
93.9%91.8%
93.5%
88.4%
91.1%
1980-841985-89
1990-941995-99
2000-042005-09
Total
OCCUPANCY BY YEAR BUILTOCCUPANCY BY YEAR BUILT
VACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENTVACANCY vs UNEMPLOYMENT
3/903/91
3/923/93
3/943/95
3/963/97
3/983/99
3/003/01
3/023/03
3/043/05
3/063/07
3/083/09
3/10
0
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Vacancy Unemployment
6,4005,800
-1,700
-14,900
-2,200
5,300
2,400
5,700
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ANNUAL UNIT ABSORPTIONANNUAL UNIT ABSORPTION
RENT GROWTH: 2003-2010RENT GROWTH: 2003-2010
1.3%2.4% 2.0%
13.1%
0.6%-0.6% -3.4% 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
$544 $869
MEDIAN RENTS: 2000-2010MEDIAN RENTS: 2000-2010
00/Q301/Q3
02/Q303/Q3
04/Q305/Q3
06/Q307/Q3
08/Q309/Q3
10/Q3
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
$0.90
$1.00
$1.10
$1.20
$1.30
$1.40
Studios 1BR
2BR 3BR
TOPTOPPERFORMERSPERFORMERS
UrbanUrbanLifestyleLifestyleProjectsProjects
$1.20 - $2.15
TRENDSTRENDS
Land Supply ? Land Values? Occupancies? Rents? Incentives? New Units? Urban Town Centers? TOD Developments? Student Housing?
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