chapter two - marina.airportstudy.commarina.airportstudy.com/files/2014/04/oar-chapter-2.pdf ·...

CHAPTER TWOCHAPTER TWOCHAPTER TWOCHAPTER TWO

An important factor when planning the future needs of an airport involves a de inition of aviation demand that may reasonably be expected to occur in both the near term ( ive years) and long term (20 years). For a general aviation airport such as Marina Municipal Airport (OAR), forecasts of based aircraft and operations (takeoffs and landings) serve as the basis for facility planning.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has oversight responsibility to review and approve aviation forecasts developed in conjunction with airport planning studies. The FAA reviews such forecasts with the objective of comparing them to the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) and the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS). FAA Order 5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems, dated December 4, 2004, states that forecasts should be:

• Realistic;• Based on the latest available data;• Re lective of current conditions at the airport;• Supported by information in the study; and• Able to provide adequate justi ication for airport planning and development.

2-1 Draft - April 2014

AIRPORT MASTER PLAN – Marina Municipal Airport

FORECASTS 2-2 DRAFT – APRIL 2014

The forecast process for an airport master plan consists of a series of basic steps that vary in complexity depending upon the issues to be addressed and the level of effort required. The steps include a review of previous forecasts, determination of data needs, identifica-tion of data sources, collection of data, selection of forecast methods, preparation of the forecasts, and evaluation and documentation of the results. FAA Advisory Circular (AC) 150/5070-6B, Airport Master Plans, outlines seven standard steps involved in the forecast process, including: 1) Identify Aviation Activity Measures: Identify the level and type of aviation ac-

tivities likely to impact facility needs. For general aviation, this typically includes based aircraft and operations.

2) Review Previous Airport Forecasts: The review of existing forecasts may in-

clude the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts, state or regional system plans, and previous master plans.

3) Gather Data: Determine what data are required to prepare the forecasts, identify

data sources, and collect historical and forecast data. 4) Select Forecast Methods: Several appropriate methodologies and techniques are

available, including regression analysis, trend analysis, market share or ratio analysis, exponential smoothing, econometric modeling, comparison with other airports, sur-vey techniques, cohort analysis, choice and distribution models, range projections, and professional judgment.

5) Apply Forecast Methods and Evaluate Results: Prepare the actual forecasts and

evaluate for reasonableness. 6) Summarize and Document Results: Provide supporting text and tables as nec-

essary. 7) Compare Forecast Results with FAA’s TAF: Follow guidance in FAA Order

5090.3C, Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. In part, the Order indicates that forecasts should not vary significantly (more than 10 per-cent) from the TAF. When there is a greater than 10 percent variance, supporting documentation should be supplied to the FAA (e.g., the Master Plan).

The aviation demand forecasts are then submitted to the FAA for their review and approv-al. Master plan forecasts of operations and based aircraft for general aviation airports are considered to be consistent with the TAF if they meet the following criteria:

• Where the 5- or 10-year forecasts exceed 100,000 total annual operations or 100 based aircraft:



a) Forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the 5-year forecast and 15 percent in the 10-year period, or

b) Forecasts do not affect the timing or scale of an airport project, or c) Forecasts do not affect the role of the airport as defined in the current ver-

sion of FAA Order 5090.3C. Aviation activity can be affected by many influences on the local, regional, and national lev-els, making it virtually impossible to predict year-to-year fluctuations of activity over 20 years with any certainty. Therefore, it is important to remember that forecasts serve only as guidance, and planning must remain flexible to respond to unforeseen developments. The forecasts are considered “unconstrained”, meaning they reflect the level of demand that could be reasonably expected at the Airport over the next 20 years. The forecasts are Airport-specific and do not consider the constraints of the area airspace, hangar limita-tions, airport policies on growth, or other development scenarios that may or may not ma-terialize. Essentially, the forecasts represent what might be reasonably expected were the airport to pursue policies to accommodate the forecast growth. For example, the forecasts may show growth in the number of based aircraft; however, if additional hangar space is not available, then the growth figures may not materialize. The following forecast analysis for Marina Municipal Airport was produced following these basic guidelines. Existing forecasts are examined and compared against current and histor-ical activity. The historical aviation activity is then examined along with other factors and trends that can affect demand. The intent is to provide an updated set of aviation-demand projections for the Airport that will permit Airport management to make planning adjust-ments as necessary to maintain a viable, efficient, and cost-effective facility. FORECASTING APPROACH Developing aviation forecasts involve both analytical rigor and professional judgmental processes. A series of mathematical relationships are tested to establish statistical logic and rationale for projected growth. The judgment of the forecast analyst, based upon pro-fessional experience, knowledge of the aviation industry, and assessment of the local situa-tion, is used to make the final determination of the preferred forecast. Beyond five years, the predictive reliability of forecasts can diminish. It is prudent to up-date forecasts, because airport and industry conditions may change over time. Because it may take many years to complete major facility development program; , it is important to use forecasts that do not overestimate revenue-generating capabilities or understate de-mand for facilities needed to meet public (user) needs. A wide range of factors are known to influence the aviation industry and can have signifi-cant impacts on the extent and nature of activity occurring both locally and nationally.



Technological advances in aviation have historically altered and will continue to change the growth rates in aviation demand. A recent example is the substantial growth in the pro-duction and delivery of business jet aircraft, which resulted in a growth rate that far ex-ceeded expectations. Such changes are difficult to predict, but over time, reasonable growth trends can be identified. For each aviation demand indicator, such as based aircraft and operations, several fore-casts are developed. These several forecasts are presented to define a reasonable planning envelope. The selected forecast for a particular demand indicator may be one of the fore-casts or it may be an average of all the forecasts. Several standard statistical methods have been employed to generate various projections of aviation demand. Trend series projections are probably the simplest and most familiar of the forecasting techniques. By fitting growth curves to historical demand data and then extending them into the future, a basic trend line projection is produced. A basic assumption of this tech-nique is that outside factors will continue to affect aviation demand in much the same manner as in the past. As broad as this assumption may be, the trend line projection does serve as a reliable benchmark for comparing other projections. Correlation analysis provides a measure of a direct relationship between two separate sets of historic data. Should there be a reasonable correlation between the data further evaluation using regression analysis may be employed. Regression analysis measures the statistical relationship between dependent and inde-pendent variables, yielding a “correlation coefficient.” The correlation coefficient (Pear-son’s “r”) measures the association between changes in a dependent variable and inde-pendent variable(s). If the r-squared (r2) value (coefficient determination) is greater than 0.90, it indicates good predictive reliability. A value below 0.90 may be used with the un-derstanding that the predictive reliability is lower and a greater likelihood that chance could explain what appears to be a statistical relationship. Historical growth analysis is a simple forecasting method in which the historical average annual growth rate is identified, and then extended out to forecast years. This analysis method assumes factors that impacted growth in the past will continue into the future. Market share analysis involves a historical review of airport activity as a percentage, or share, of a larger regional, state, or national aviation market. A historical market share trend is determined providing an expected market share for the future. These shares are then multiplied by the forecasts of the larger geographical area to produce a market share projection. This method has the same limitations as trend line projections, but can provide a useful check on the validity of other forecasting techniques. Utilizing these statistical methods, available existing forecasts, analyst expertise, and a broad spectrum of demographic, economic and industry data, forecasts of aviation demand



for the Airport have been developed. The remainder of this chapter presents the aviation demand forecasts and includes activity in two broad categories: based aircraft and annual operations. NATIONAL AVIATION TRENDS AND FORECASTS The forecasts developed for the airport must consider national, regional, and local aviation trends. The following section describes recent trends in aviation. This information is uti-lized both in statistical analysis and to aid the forecast preparer in making any manual ad-justments to the forecasts as necessary. The national aviation forecast information is pri-marily sourced from the FAA Aerospace Forecast: Fiscal Years 2014-2034. NATIONAL TRENDS The aviation industry in the United States has experienced an event-filled period since the beginning of the 21st century. The industry has faced impacts of the events of September 11, 2001, scares from pandemics such as SARS, the bankruptcy of five network air carriers, all-time high fuel prices, and a serious economic downturn with global ramifications. The Bureau of Economic Research has determined that the worst economic recession in the post-World War II era began in December 2007 and lasted until mid-2009. Eight of the world’s top 10 economies were in recession by January 2009. Since the official end of the recession, the overall U.S. economy has been slow to recover; however, aviation is anticipated to continue to grow over the long run. According to the FAA’s annual forecast, “fundamentally, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. As economic growth picks up, so will growth in aviation demand.” The 2014 FAA forecast calls for U.S. air carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.2 percent annually. After another year of slow growth in 2014, growth over the following five years is projected to be higher than the long-term growth rate as the econo-my accelerates. System capacity as measured in available seat miles (ASMs), the overall yardstick for avia-tion activity, is projected to increase by 2.7 percent annually through the long term. Pas-senger enplanements (boardings) are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent through the 20-year FAA forecast period. The long-term outlook for general aviation is favorable, according to FAA forecasts. While business aviation slowed significantly in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 recession, growth is expected, especially in both operations and manufacturing of turbine-powered aircraft. Total piston-powered aircraft in the U.S. general aviation fleet are projected to decline by 0.3 percent annually through 2034. Total turbine powered aircraft are projected to grow



by 2.6 percent through 2034. The FAA projections are discussed further in the subsections that follow. GENERAL AVIATION FORECASTS Following years of decline in the 1980s and early 1990s, the general aviation industry was revitalized with the passage of the General Aviation Revitalization Act, in 199., This Act lim-ited the liability on general aviation aircraft to 18 years from the date of manufacture and sparked an interest to renew the manufacture of general aviation aircraft due to the reduc-tion in product liability, as well as renewed optimism for the industry. The high cost of product liability insurance had been a major factor in the decision by many American air-craft manufacturers to slow or discontinue the production of general aviation aircraft. The general aviation industry continued its modest growth since the end of the 2008/2009 recession. Based on figures released by the General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), 2013 represented the third consecutive of year-over-year growth in general avia-tion aircraft deliveries. Piston aircraft deliveries were up 6.5 percent. The turbine category declined slightly. Turboprop deliveries were up by 13.8 percent. Exhibit 2A presents the general aviation aircraft shipment and billing figures for the last 10 years. The FAA forecasts the fleet mix and hours flown for single engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston aircraft, turboprops, business jets, piston and turbine helicopters, light sport, experimental, and others (gliders and balloons). The FAA forecasts “active aircraft,” not total aircraft. An active aircraft is one that is flown at least one hour during the year. From 2011 through 2013, the FAA undertook an effort to have all aircraft owners re-reregister their aircraft. This effort resulted in a 6.4 percent decrease in the number of active general aviation aircraft, mostly in the piston category.

After growing rapidly for most of the decade, the demand for business jet aircraft slowed over the past few years, as the industry was hard hit by the 2008/2009 economic reces-sion. Nonetheless, the FAA forecast calls for growth through the long-term, driven by high-er corporate profits and continued concerns about safety, security, and flight delays. Over-all, business aviation is projected to outpace personal/recreational use. In 2013, the FAA estimated there were 141,325 piston-powered aircraft in the national fleet. The total number of piston-powered aircraft in the fleet is forecast to decline by 0.3 percent from 2013-2034, resulting in 131,625 by 2034. This includes -0.4 percent annually for single engine pistons and -0.5 percent for multi-engine pistons. Conversely, piston powered helicopters, are forecast to grow 1.7 percent annually through 2034. Total turbine aircraft are forecast to return to growth in 2014 and have an annual growth rate of 2.6 percent through 2034. The FAA estimates there were 29,110 turbine-powered aircraft in the national fleet in 2013 and there will be 49,565 by 2034. This includes annual

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Exhibit 2AHISTORICAL GENERAL AVIATION SHIPMENT AND BILLINGS

Source: GAMA



growth rates of 1.6 percent for turboprops, 3.0 percent for business jets, and 3.0 percent for turbine helicopters. While comprising a much smaller portion of the general aviation fleet, experimental air-craft, typically identified as home-built aircraft, are projected to grow annually by 1.5 per-cent through 2034. The FAA estimates there were 25,305 experimental aircraft in 2013, and are projected to grow to 34,440 by 2034. Sport aircraft are forecast to grow 4.1 per-cent annually through the long term, growing from 2,110 in 2013 to 4,880 by 2034. The FAA provides a total operations forecast based upon activity at control towers across the U.S. Operations are categorized as air carrier, air taxi/commuter, general aviation, and military. General aviation operations, both local and itinerant, declined significantly as a result of the 2008/2009 recession and subsequent slow recovery. Through 2034, total general aviation operations are forecast to grow 0.5 percent annually. Air taxi/commuter operations are forecast to grow by 0.6 percent through 2023, and then decline slightly through the re-mainder of the forecast period. Overall, air taxi/commuter operations are forecast to de-cline by 0.1 percent annually from 2013 through 2034. Exhibit 2B presents the FAA forecasts of general aviation active aircraft by fleet mix and operations, including air taxi/commuter operations, through 2034. SOCIOECONOMIC PROJECTIONS The socioeconomic conditions provide an important baseline for preparing aviation de-mand forecasts. Local socioeconomic variables, such as population, employment, and in-come, are useful indicators for understanding any community and can relate to local trends in aviation activity. Analysis of the demographics of the airport service area will give a more comprehensive understanding of the socioeconomic situations affecting the region which supports Marina Municipal Airport. The following is a summary of the historical demographic trends presented in Chapter One, as well as forecasts of those socioeconomic characteristics. Table 2A summarizes historical and forecast population, employment, and income esti-mates for Monterey County and the State of California. Over the next 20 years, the popula-tion of Monterey County is projected to add approximately 66,000 people. This equates to an average annual growth rate of 0.73 percent. Employment is projected to grow at 1.08 percent annually. Income for Monterey County is projected to grow significantly at 1.37 percent annually. Socioeconomic growth rates in these three areas for the state are pro-jected to be slightly higher than for Monterey County.

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Notes: An active aircraft is one that has a current registration and was flown at least one hour during the calendar year.

2013CATEGORY

CATEGORY

CATEGORY

U.S. Active General Aviation Aircraft U.S. Active General Aviation AircraftU.S. Active General Aviation Aircraft

U.S. General Aviation OperationsU.S. General Aviation Operations

U.S. General Aviation Air Taxi OperationsU.S. General Aviation Air Taxi Operations

2018 2023 2028 20342013AAGR

2013-2034

AAGR2013-2034

2018 2023 2028 20342013AAGR

2013-2034

U.S. General Aviation Operations

U.S. General Aviation Air Taxi

2018 2023 2028 2034

10

20

30

40

50

2034203020252023 20282018 202020152013201020052000

2034203020252023 20282018 202020152013201020052000

5

10

15

20342030202520232020201820152013201020052000

Historical Forecast

Historical Forecast

Historical Forecast

50

100

150

200

250

300

FIXED WING

Piston

Single Engine 123,730 119,435 116,190 114,125 113,975 -0.39%

Multi-Engine 14,235 13,955 13,575 13,220 12,290 -0.47%

Turbine

Turboprop 10,195 10,285 10,820 12,045 14,370 1.65%

Turbojet 11,890 13,225 15,315 18,045 22,050 2.98%

ROTORCRAFT

Piston 3,360 3,710 4,030 4,340 4,750 1.65%

Turbine 7,025 8,405 9,870 11,305 13,145 3.03%

EXPERIMENTAL

25,305 27,705 29,715 31,850 34,440 1.48%

SPORT AIRCRAFT 2,110 2,830 3,450 4,170 4,880 4.07%

OTHER

5,015 5,065 5,110 5,150 5,200 0.176%

TOTAL PISTONS 141,325 137,100 133,795 131,685 131,615 2.57%

TOTAL TURBINES 29,110 31,915 36,005 41,395 49,565 -0.34%

TOTAL 202,865 204,615 208,175 214,250 225,700 0.51%

Total Operations

Local Operations

Itinerant Operations

LEGEND

ITINERANT

14,119,000 14,435,900 14,778,800 15,137,800 15,591,300 0.47%

LOCAL

11,690,000 12,207,100 12,474,700 112,754,700 13,108,400 0.55%

TOTAL GA OPERATIONS 25,808,900 26,643,000 27,253,500 27,892,600 28,699,800 0.51%

AIR TAXI/COMMUTER OPERATIONS

8,803,600 9,102,900 9,317,400 8,526,700 8,570,300 -0.13%

Exhibit 2BTOTAL FORECASTS

U S Active General Aviation Aircraft

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecasts 2014-2034



TABLE 2A Demographic Trends and Forecast

HISTORIC FORECAST

2000 2010 2013 2018 2023 2033

AAGR 2013-2033

Monterey County

Population 401,762 415,057 421,494 434,256 448,076 487,323 0.73% Employment 220,991 222,244 238,115 251,639 265,616 295,124 1.08% Income (PCPI) $35,142 $36,687 $38,401 $40,369 $43,262 $50,411 1.37% California Population 33,871,653 37,253,956 37,966,471 39,896,337 41,719,055 45,353,173 0.89% Employment 19,466,172 19,770,762 20,532,291 22,054,252 23,673,131 27,233,607 1.42% Income (PCPI) $37,191 $38,271 $39,230 $41,542 $44,826 $52,999 1.52% AAGR: Average annual compound growth rate PCPI - Per Capita Personal Income ($2005) Source - 2000 & 2010 Population: California Department of Finance, Historical Census Populations of Counties and Incorporated Cities in California, 1850-2010. Accessed on 6.11.13 at http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/state_census_data_center/historical_census_1850-2010/view.php Source - 2013 Population: California Department of Finance - Report E5 City/County Population and Housing Estimates with 2010 Bench-mark accessed on 6.11.13 at: http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/ Source - Population Forecast: California Department of Finance - Report P-1 (County): State and County total Population Projections, 2010-2060 Source Employment and Income Historic and Forecast: Woods & Poole Economics - Complete Economic Demographic Data Source (CEDDS-2013)

GENERAL AVIATION FORECASTS To determine the types and sizes of facilities that should be planned to accommodate gen-eral aviation activity, certain elements of this activity must be forecast. Indicators of gen-eral aviation demand include:

• Based Aircraft • Based Aircraft Fleet Mix • General Aviation Operations • Peak Period Operations

The remainder of this chapter will examine historical trends with regard to these areas of general aviation and project future demand for these segments of general aviation activity at the Airport. These forecasts, once approved by the FAA, will become the basis for plan-ning future facilities, both airside and landside, at the Airport. The base year for the follow-ing analysis is 2013 with forecasts extending to 2033. REGISTERED AIRCRAFT FORECAST The number of based aircraft is the most basic indicator of general aviation demand at an airport. By first developing a forecast of based aircraft, other demand segments can be pro-



jected using the forecast trend in based aircraft. One method of forecasting based air-craft is to first examine local aircraft ownership by reviewing aircraft registrations in the region. Figure 1 presents historical data regarding aircraft registered in Monterey County.

Since 2009, the number of registered aircraft in Monterey County has declined annually. In 2013, there were 402 registered aircraft compared to 536 in 2008. As a result, various re-gression and time-series analyses did not result in a reliable forecast. Therefore, several market share forecasts have been developed and are presented on Exhibit 2C. The first two projections consider the county’s market share of total active general aviation aircraft in the U.S. fleet as identified in the FAA’s annual forecasts. The first projection con-siders the county maintaining its 2013 percent (0.1982%) as a constant into the forecast years. This results in a long-term projection of 443 registered aircraft and an annual growth rate of 0.48 percent. The second projection applies the 10-year average market share of registered aircraft as a ratio to the U.S. active aircraft fleet. This results in a con-stant market share of 0.2249 percent and an annual growth rate of 1.12 percent. By 2033, this projection results in 502 registered aircraft in the county.

COUNTY U.S. ACTIVE MARKET COUNTY AIRCRAFT PER YEAR REGISTRATIONS1 AIRCRAFT2 SHARE POPULATION 3 1,000 RESIDENTS 2000 528 217,533 0.2427% 401,762 1.3142 2001 534 211,446 0.2525% 403,072 1.3248 2002 532 211,244 0.2518% 404,387 1.3156 2003 512 209,606 0.2443% 405,705 1.2620 2004 506 219,319 0.2307% 407,028 1.2432 2005 513 224,257 0.2288% 408,356 1.2563 2006 515 221,942 0.2320% 409,687 1.2571 2007 531 231,606 0.2293% 411,023 1.2919 2008 536 228,664 0.2344% 412,364 1.2998 2009 525 223,876 0.2345% 413,708 1.2690 2010 499 223,370 0.2234% 415,057 1.2022 2011 498 220,453 0.2259% 416,968 1.1943 2012 442 209,034 0.2114% 419,586 1.0534 2013 402 202,865 0.1982% 421,949 0.9527Constant Market Share of U.S. Active Aircraft Projection (AAGR = 0.48%) 2018 405 204,615 0.1982% 434,255 0.9337 2023 412 208,075 0.1982% 448,076 0.9202 2033 443 223,470 0.1982% 487,323 0.908710-Year Average Market Share of U.S. Active Aircraft Projection (AAGR = 1.12%) 2018 460 204,615 0.2249% 434,255 1.0595 2023 468 208,075 0.2249% 448,076 1.0442 2033 502 223,470 0.2249% 487,323 1.0311Constant Ratio of Aircraft per 1,000 County Residents (AAGR = 0.72%) 2018 414 204,615 0.2023% 434,255 0.9527 2023 427 208,075 0.2052% 448,076 0.9527 2033 464 223,470 0.2076% 487,323 0.952710-Year Average Ratio of Aircraft per 1,000 County Residents (AAGR =1.90% ) 2018 522 204,615 0.2551% 434,255 1.2020 2023 539 208,075 0.2590% 448,076 1.2020 2033 586 223,470 0.2622% 487,323 1.2020Selected Projection (AAGR = 1.25%) 2018 430 204,615 0.2102% 434,255 0.9902 2023 460 208,075 0.2211% 448,076 1.0266 2033 515 223,470 0.2305% 487,323 1.0568

RE

GIS

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D A

IRC

RA

FT

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

‘33‘32‘312030

‘29‘28‘27‘262025

‘24‘23‘22‘212020

‘19‘18‘17‘162015

‘14‘13‘12‘112010

‘09‘08‘07‘062005

‘04‘03‘02‘012000

YEAR

Historical Forecast

Constant Market Share of U.S. Active Aircraft Projection (AAGR* 0.48%)

10-Year Average Market Share of U.S. Active Aircraft Projection (AAGR 1.12%)

Constant Ratio of Aircraft per 1,000 County Residents (AAGR 0.72%)

10-Year Average Ratio of Aircraft per 1,000 County Residents (AAGR 1.90%)

Selected Projection (AAGR 1.25%)

LEGEND

Exhibit 2CREGISTERED AIRCRAFT FORECAST

700

Source: 1County Aircraft Registrations from FAA Aircraft Registration Database 2U.S. Active Aircraft from FAA Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2014-2034 3California Department of Finance



The next two projections consider the ratio of forecast population for the county to regis-tered aircraft. The first of these projections considers the airport maintaining its 2013 ra-tio of 0.9527 aircraft per 1,000 people in the county. This results in a 2033 projection of 464 registered aircraft and an annual growth rate of 0.72 percent. The second projection considers the 10-year average (1.2020) of registered aircraft per 1,000 county residents. The selected forecast considers slower growth in the short term, with the long term ulti-mately reaching an approximate average of the market share forecasts of registered air-craft for Monterey County. This results in registered aircraft increasing from 402 in 2013 to 430 in the next five years, 460 in 10 years, and 515 in 20 years. The registered aircraft projection is one data point to be used in the development of a based aircraft forecast. The following section will present several potential based aircraft forecasts, as well as the se-lected based aircraft master plan forecast. BASED AIRCRAFT FORECASTS Prior to generating statistical forecasts of based aircraft, it is important to establish the cur-rent number of based aircraft at the Airport. Until recently, the FAA has not required air-ports to maintain annual based aircraft figures. For this master planning study, individual aircraft were physically counted to establish a baseline of based aircraft. Currently, there are a total of 50 aircraft based at the Airport. Table 2B shows the estimated maximum number of aircraft storage units (81) and the hangars housing the based aircraft. TABLE 2B 2013 Based Aircraft

Marina Municipal Airport Storage Facility SEP MEP TP J H O TOTAL

Building 507/CIRPAS 1 0 2 0 0 1 4 Building 524 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 Building 533 3 0 1 0 0 1 5 Building 528 Box 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 Building 528 T 19 0 0 0 0 0 19 Building 554 11 0 0 0 0 2 13 Building 510 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Tie Downs 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 TOTAL 43 0 3 0 0 4 50 SEP-Single engine piston; MEP-Multi-engine piston; TP-Turboprop; J-Jet; O-Other (ultralilght, UAS) Source: Airport physical inspection



Existing Based Aircraft Forecasts There are several existing forecasts of based aircraft for the Airport as shown in Table 2C. The 2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) is a generalized annual forecast of airport ac-tivity produced by the FAA. It can be used for long-term planning when other statistical measures support its forecasts. The 2014 TAF estimates that there were 47 based aircraft at the airport in 2013. It provides a flat-line forecast (47) through 2040. TABLE 2C Existing Based Aircraft Forecasts

Marina Municipal Airport Source 2013 2018 2023 2033 AAGR 2013-2033

2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) 47 47 47 47 0.00% 2008 Master Plan¹ 87 95 104 126 1.87% 2005 AMBAG Regional Airport System Plan¹ 87 95 104 126 1.87% 2013 Caltrans CASP 48 No Forecast Provided NA 2013 FAA Form 5010 Master Record 25 No Forecast Provided NA FAA/GCR Based Aircraft Inventory² 21 No Forecast Provided NA ¹Forecasts interpolated and extrapolated to plan years.

²Accessed on 12.11.13 at http://www.basedaircraft.com/bacounts/state_counts.asp CASP - California Aviation System Plan

AMBAG - Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments

AAGR - Average annual growth rate Source: FAA records; 2008 Airport Master Plan The Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments (AMBAG) developed a regional avia-tion system plan in 2005. The based aircraft forecast from this study was utilized in the 2008 airport master plan. Caltrans does not provide a forecast as part of the California Avi-ation System Plan (CASP), but do provide a baseline figure of 48 based aircraft for 2013. FAA Form 5010 Airport Master Record identifies 25 based aircraft as of 2013. In 2009, the FAA partnered with GCR, Inc. to identify the number of based aircraft at general aviation airports across the country. This inventory identified 21 based aircraft at the Airport. As indicated previously, a physical count of aircraft based at the airport was conducted at the end of 2013 and a total of 50 aircraft were identified. Building upon this starting point, several new forecasts were developed in order to create a reasonable planning envelope from which a forecast will be selected. Based /Registered Aircraft Distribution Forecast The first new forecast generated for based aircraft utilizes the previously determined fore-cast of registered aircraft for Monterey County. The number of based aircraft at the Airport account for 12.44 percent of the registered aircraft in Monterey County. By extending this



percent as a constant to the plan years, a based aircraft forecast emerges. Table 2D pre-sents this analysis. TABLE 2D Based Aircraft System Distribution Forecast Marina Municipal Airport (OAR)

Year Monterey County

Registered Aircraft Aircraft Based

at OAR Percent of Monterey County Registered

Aircraft Based at OAR 2013 402 50 12.44%

Constant Market Share 2018 430 53 12.44% 2023 460 57 12.44% 2033 515 64 12.44%

AAGR 2013-2033: 1.25% Source: Coffman Associates analysis Based Aircraft/Demand Indicator Growth Rate Forecasts Several simple straight-line forecasts of based aircraft have been developed utilizing the forecast growth rates of various demand indicators as presented in Table 2E. The base year is set at the 2013 based aircraft figure of 50 aircraft. As can be seen, the 2033 based aircraft forecasts derived from these indicators range from between 55 on the low end to 72 on the high end. TABLE 2E Based Aircraft Forecasts Utilizing Demand Indicator Growth Rates

Marina Municipal Airport

Demand Indicator 2013 2018 2023 2033

AAGR 2013-2033

2013 FAA Active Aircraft Forecast Growth Rate 50 51 53 55 0.50% FAA Statewide 2014 TAF Growth Rate 50 52 54 59 0.84% 2005 AMBAG/2008 MP Growth Rate 50 55 60 72 1.87% Monterey County Population Growth Rate 50 52 54 58 0.73% Monterey County Employment Growth Rate 50 53 56 62 1.08% Monterey County Income Growth Rate 50 54 57 66 1.37% Source: Coffman Associates analysis SELECTED BASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST Marina Municipal Airport has many positive elements that would lead one to be optimistic about the growth potential for additional based aircraft at the Airport. For one, the Airport has an existing supply of aircraft hangar storage space available for lease. The Airport is a former military facility which provides ample area for aviation development. The Airport also has a tenant (CIRPAS) using aircraft that could benefit from a longer runway length. If a longer runway were constructed, then the Airport as a whole would have appeal to a broader range of general aviation operators.



There are also several challenges to growth in based aircraft at the Airport. The most im-portant challenge is the variety of other airports that are well established in the region to support general aviation activity. This would include Salinas Municipal Airport, Wat-sonville Municipal Airport, South County Airport of Santa Clara County, and Monterey Re-gional Airport. The selected planning forecast for based aircraft at the Airport considers moderate growth, which falls within the planning envelope of several new forecasts developed. The following is the based aircraft forecast used for Marina Municipal Airport:

• Short Term – 55 • Intermediate Term – 60 • Long Term – 70

The average annual growth rate over the next 20 years is 1.70 percent. Exhibit 2D pre-sents a summary of the based aircraft forecast planning envelope and the selected forecast. BASED AIRCRAFT FLEET MIX PROJECTION Knowing the aircraft fleet mix expected to utilize an airport is necessary to properly plan facilities that will best serve the level of activity and the type of activities occurring at the Airport. The presence of one or a few business jets or turboprops can impact design stand-ards for the runway and taxiway system more than a large number of smaller single engine piston-powered aircraft. The existing based aircraft fleet mix is comprised of 43 single en-gine aircraft, three turboprops, and four classified as ‘Other,’ which are comprised of three ultralights and one UAS (unmanned aerial system). The based aircraft fleet mix forecast for the Airport is presented in Table 2F. It was devel-oped based on local aircraft type usage and national trends as presented in FAA Aerospace Forecasts - Fiscal Years 2014-2034. Smaller piston-powered aircraft are forecast to contin-ue to dominate the based aircraft fleet at the Airport. One tenant (CIRPAS) may introduce a jet-powered aircraft in the near future, which is reflected in the 2018 projection. TABLE 2F Based Aircraft Fleet Mix Marina Municipal Airport

Aircraft Type 2013 Percent 2018 Percent 2023 Percent 2033 Percent Single Engine Piston 43 86.00 45 81.82 47 78.33 54 77.14 Multi-Engine Piston 0 0.00 1 1.82 1 1.67 2 2.86 Turboprop 3 6.00 4 7.27 4 6.67 5 7.14 Jet 0 0.00 1 1.82 2 3.33 3 4.29 Helicopters 0 0.00 0 0.00 1 1.67 1 1.43 Other/Experimental 4 8.00 4 7.27 5 8.33 5 7.14 Total 50 100.00 55 100.00 60 100.00 70 100.00 Source: Coffman Associates analysis

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Constant Share of County Registered Aircraft

Monterey County Income Growth Rate

Monterey County Employment Growth Rate

Monterey County Population Growth Rate

2005 AMBAG/2008 MP Growth Rate

FAA Statewide 2014 TAF Growth Rate

2013 FAA Active Aircraft Forecast Growth Rate

FAA/GCR Based Aircraft Inventory

2013-FAA Form 5010 Master Record

2013-Californis Aviation System Plan

2005 AMBAG Regional Airport System Plan¹ (AAGR=1.87%)

2008 Master Plan¹ (AAGR=1.87%)

2014-FAA Terminal Area Forecast (AAGR=0.00%)

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Exhibit 2DBASED AIRCRAFT FORECAST

¹Forecasts interpolated and extrapolated to plan years.AMBAG - Association of Monterey Bay Area GovernmentsAAGR - Average Annual Growth Rate



TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATIONS General aviation operations include a wide range of activity from recreational use to busi-ness and corporate uses. Military operations include those operations conducted by vari-ous branches of the U.S. military. Air taxi operations are those conducted by aircraft oper-ating under FAR Part 135, otherwise known as “for-hire” activity. Air taxi operations would include air cargo, air ambulance, and many fractional ownership operations. Aircraft operations are further classified as local and itinerant. A local operation is a take-off or landing performed by an aircraft that operates within sight of an airport, or which executes simulated approaches or touch-and-go operations at an airport. Generally, local operations are characterized by training activity. Itinerant operations are those performed by aircraft with a specific origin or destination away from an airport. Typically, itinerant operations increase with business and commercial use since business aircraft are used primarily to transport passengers from one location to another. Marina Municipal Airport is a non-towered facility. This means that actual operations counts are not available. Therefore, estimates must be made based on interviews with air-port operators and management, as well as from historical documentation and studies. The first source considered for operations data is the FAA TAF. The TAF estimates that the airport experiences 40,000 annual operations, 67 percent of which are itinerant in nature and 33 percent are local in nature. The TAF for the Airport begins in 1999 and provides a flat-line forecast through 2040. Every year, the TAF has the same 40,000 annual operations number. It is not unusual for the TAF to have a limited forecast for general aviation air-ports since the primary purpose of the TAF is for national system planning of FAA work-load measures. The TAF is an estimate that does not reflect any local circumstances or fluc-tuations in the economy or the aviation industry. Since the TAF does not provide much helpful information about activity at the airport, an effort will be made to provide a more realistic baseline and forecast of operations. Baseline Total Operations Estimate The first step is to determine a reasonable baseline estimate for overall Airport operations as of 2013. Several data points are available to provide the baseline estimate. The first is the previously mentioned FAA TAF. The next is consideration of the last actual count of ac-tivity at the airport. In September and October of 2006, Caltrans placed acoustical counters at the Airport. When the results were extrapolated over a year, the total estimated number of operations was 38,900. Therefore, both the TAF and the acoustical count were similar in 2006. Since 2006, aviation demand changed dramatically with the onset of the 2008/2009 na-tional recession and the subsequent slow recovery. Activity at general aviation airports



across the country declined significantly. Marina Municipal Airport was not immune to this national trend. In 2006, the airport master plan estimated there were 70 based aircraft. As of 2013, following a physical count of aircraft, there were 50 based aircraft, a decline of ap-proximately 29 percent. Because of this, it is likely that overall airport operations have also declined. This would result in a baseline of approximately 30,000 annual operations. Two additional methodologies of determining operations at non-towered airports were considered. The first methodology is presented in the Field Formulation of the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. In this FAA publication, it states that a satisfactory pro-cedure for estimating operations at non-towered airports is to apply a general guideline of operations per based aircraft depending on the operational characteristics of the airport. For rural general aviation airports with little itinerant traffic, 250 annual operations per based aircraft are suggested. For busier general aviation airports with more itinerant traf-fic, 350 operations per based aircraft are suggested. For busy reliever general aviation air-ports, 450 operations per based aircraft are suggested. Marina Municipal Airport may be considered a busier general aviation airport with more itinerant traffic; therefore, 350 operations per based aircraft is utilized to develop an oper-ations projection. This results in 17,500 operations for 2013 and 24,500 by 2033. The second methodology utilizes a statistical regression model approved by the FAA to es-timate total operations at non-towered airports. The research paper entitled, Model for Es-timating General Aviation Operations at Non-Towered Airports Using Towered and Non-Towered Airports Data (GRA, Inc. 2001), includes the methodology and formula for the model. Independent variables used in the model include airport characteristics, area de-mographics, and geographic features. The model was derived using a combined data set for small towered and non-towered general aviation airports and incorporates a dummy variable to distinguish the two airport types. The results of the model estimate that the Airport had approximately 18,600 annual opera-tions in 2013. By 2033, the model estimates 25,000 annual operations. When utilizing sta-tistical data from 2006, including a based aircraft figure of 70, the model results in approx-imately 25,000 annual operations for that timeframe. The analysis presented here confirms that total operations at the Airport have likely de-clined since the 2006 acoustical count. For planning purposes, 30,000 annual operations are estimated for 2013. This represents a 29 percent difference from the TAF. From this baseline figure, several new forecasts were developed. Total Operations Forecast Forecasts of operations at the Airport dating from before the 2008/2009 recession are like-ly not very reliable. These pre-recession forecasts would not reflect the substantial impact



to general aviation demand that occurred and the slow recovery to follow. Because, the economic conditions that existed prior to the recession may return in the coming years, an examination of previous forecasts is useful to extract projected growth rates and apply them to the newly established baseline. Table 2G presents three previous forecasts of total operations for the airport. TABLE 2G Existing Operations Forecasts

Marina Municipal Airport 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2033 AAGR 2014 FAA Terminal Area Forecast 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 0.00% 2005 Monterey Bay Regional Airport System Plan 31,800 36,900 42,300 47,530 55,080 68,615* 2.78% 2008 Airport Master Plan 40,000 49,200 56,400 63,300 73,300 93,395* 3.07%

*Extrapolated AAGR: Average annual growth rate Four new total operations forecasts have been developed and are presented in Table 2H. The first considers an FAA-suggested method of applying the overall growth rate in opera-tions for the state as projected in the TAF. The 2014 TAF has a statewide annual growth rate of 0.62 percent. The next considers a direct relationship between the FAA-projected national growth rate for general aviation operations (0.4 percent). The third considers the growth rate from the previous airport master plan (3.07 percent). The fourth employs the growth rate from the 2005 Monterey Bay Regional Airport System Plan. The last utilizes the ratio of based aircraft to operations (600 operations per based aircraft) and maintains this as a constant through the forecast years. TABLE 2H Total Operations Forecast


Statewide FAA TAF

Growth Rate

National GA Operations

Growth Rate¹

2008 Master Plan Growth

Rate 2005 RASP

Growth Rate

600 Operations Per Based

Aircraft Planning Forecast

2013 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 2018 30,942 30,605 34,897 34,408 33,000 32,800

2023 31,913 31,222 40,592 39,465 36,000 35,900 2033 33,947 32,493 54,925 51,915 42,000 43,000 AAGR 0.62% 0.40% 3.07% 2.78% 1.70% 1.82%

AAGR: Average annual growth rate

TAF: Terminal Area Forecast

RASP: 2005 Monterey Bay Regional Airport System Plan

¹FAA Aeronautical Forecasts 2014-2034



The selected total operations planning forecast is 25 percent below what the FAA TAF shows. This is also approximately 25 percent below the total operations estimated in 2006 by Caltrans through an acoustical count. Since 2006, the number of based aircraft has de-clined from 70 to 50, which is a 29 percent decline. The planning forecast is reflective of aviation demand locally and reflects recent changes in aviation demand at the airport. Ex-hibit 2E is a graphic presentation of the operations forecast. Operational Fleet Mix Estimating the number of operations by aircraft type helps to identify facility requirements such as runway length and various environmental impacts such as noise impacts. The number of operations by a specific aircraft type can heavily influence runway length needs. For example, a single business jet that utilizes the airport frequently can provide justifica-tion for a longer runway, while operations by hundreds of small single engine piston air-craft may have little or no influence on runway length. Table 2J provides an estimate of operations by aircraft type. Itinerant operations are es-timated at 67 percent of total Airport operations and local operations account for the re-maining 33 percent. This ratio is a common estimate for general aviation airports and it is the estimate assumed in the FAA TAF. Operations by multi-engine, turboprop, and busi-ness jet aircraft are generally considered itinerant in nature. TABLE 2J Fleet Mix Operations Forecast Marina Municipal Airport 2013 % 2018 % 2023 % 2033 % Local Operations Piston 9,702 98.00 10,499 97.00 11,373 96.00 13,339 94.00 Helicopter 198 2.00 325 3.00 474 4.00 851 6.00 Total Local 9,900 100.00 10,824 100.00 11,847 100.00 14,190 100.00 Itinerant Operations Single Piston and Other 16,200 80.60 17,576 79.98 19,103 79.42 23,060 80.04 Multi-Piston 250 1.24 250 1.14 250 1.04 500 1.74 Turboprop 3,000 14.93 3,250 14.79 3,250 13.51 3,500 12.15 Jet 50 0.25 300 1.37 600 2.49 900 3.12 Helicopters 600 2.99 600 2.73 850 3.53 850 2.95 Total Itinerant 20,100 100.00 21,976 100.00 24,053 100.00 28,810 100.00 Total Operations 30,000 32,800 35,900 43,000

Source: Coffman Associates analysis

Interviews conducted with Airport staff and tenants provide a useful estimate for the num-ber of operations conducted by turboprops and helicopters. The combination of the based King Air A90 and the Twin Otter turboprops are estimated to account for 3,000 annual op-

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HISTORICAL FORECASTS

Planning Forecast (AAGR=1.82%)600 Operations Per Based (AAGR=1.70%)2005 RASP Growth Rate (AAGR=2.78%)2008 Master Plan Growth Rate (AAGR=3.07%)National GA Operations Growth Rate1 (AAGR=0.40%)Statewide FAA TAF Growth Rate (AAGR=0.62%)

AAGR-Average Annual Growth Rate; TAF-Terminal Area Forecast; RASP-2005 Monterey Bay Regional Airport System Plan 1FAA Aeronautical Forecasts 2013-2033 Exhibit 2E

TOTAL OPERATIONS FORECAST



erations. Helicopter activity is dominated by military pilots from the Naval Air Station (NAS) at Lemoore, California. It is estimated that one or two Apache helicopters from the NAS will utilize the Airport several time per week. Total activity is estimated at 500 annual operations. To fill in the remaining operations mix, general assumptions based on typical aircraft utili-zation have been made and are applied to develop an operations fleet mix at the Airport. Multi-engine piston activity is estimated at 200 operations per based aircraft, turboprops at 250 operations per based aircraft, jet activity at 300 operations per based aircraft, and helicopters at 400 operations per based aircraft. These operational estimates account for all activity by that aircraft type and are not estimates of the actual number of operations attributable to a particular based aircraft. Operations Summary Table 2K presents an operational summary for the airport that also includes estimates of both military and air taxi activity. TABLE 2K Operations Summary

Marina Municipal Airport ESTIMATE FORECAST AAGR 2013-

2033 Annual Operations 2013 2018 2023 2033 General Aviation Itinerant 19,800 21,576 23,553 28,010 1.75% Local 9,700 10,624 11,647 13,990 1.85% Military Itinerant 200 200 200 200 0.00% Local 200 200 200 200 0.00% Air Taxi (Itinerant) 100 200 300 600 9.37% Total Itinerant 20,100 21,976 24,053 28,810 1.82% Total Local 9,900 10,824 11,847 14,190 1.82% Total Operations 30,000 32,800 35,900 43,000 1.82% AAGR: Average annual growth rate

Source: Coffman Associates analysis Military activity does occur at the Airport; however, it is limited in nature. Forecasting mil-itary operations is challenging because of the potential for military missions to change rap-idly. As a result, military activity is forecast as a place-holder and will vary from year to year.



Air taxi operations are those conducted by aircraft operating under FAR Part 135, which generally includes air cargo, air ambulance, “for-hire” operators, and some fractional oper-ators. Air taxi activity at the Airport is limited. A modest growth scenario is considered in the operations forecast. For airport planning, the number of operations has a direct impact on overall airport capac-ity. Capacity is a measure of the capability of the existing runway and taxiway system to accommodate operations without unreasonable delay. As will be discussed in Chapter Three – Facility Requirements, the current capacity of the Airport is estimated at 119,000 annual operations. FAA guidance suggests that planning for capacity improvement projects should begin when operations reach 60 percent of capacity. Any necessary capacity im-provement projects should be under construction by the time operations reach 70-80 per-cent of capacity, which would be when the Airport reaches approximately 83,000 annual operations. Rather than total operations, the character of those operations (i.e., the type of aircraft) may have a greater impact on airport planning and design. For example, frequent activity by one large aircraft (i.e., a jet aircraft) has a more substantial impact on airport planning and design than even hundreds of smaller general aviation piston-powered aircraft. This concept will be described in greater detail in Chapter Three. COMPARISON TO THE TAF The FAA will review and compare the forecasts to the TAF. Where the 5- or 10-year fore-casts exceed 100,000 total annual operations or 100 based aircraft, the FAA prefers that the forecasts differ by less than 10 percent in the 5-year period and 15 percent in the 10-year period. Where the forecasts do differ, the FAA will examine supporting documenta-tion, such as this Master Plan.. It should be noted that for both total operations and based aircraft, the TAF utilizes a flat-line figure for both historical and forecast data. Table 2L presents a direct comparison of the 2014 TAF to the forecasts in this master plan. For total operations, the Master Plan forecasts are below the TAF forecast through the year 2023. By 2033, the operations forecast exceed the TAF. The TAF forecast for operations is not a realistic estimate and is likely much higher than the actual activity levels. This is pri-marily due to the decline in based aircraft that coincided with the national economic reces-sion. The based aircraft forecast is also compared to the 2014 TAF. In 2013, Airport manage-ment physically counted the number of aircraft based at the Airport and determined there to be 50. The TAF identifies 47 based aircraft in 2013 and for every year through 2040. The based aircraft forecast shows a modest annual growth rate of 1.70 percent, which cal-culates to the addition of one new based aircraft per year through the 20-year planning pe-riod.



TABLE 2L Forecast Comparison to the Terminal Area Forecast Marina Municipal Airport

Year OAR Operations 2014 FAA TAF Percent Difference TOTAL OPERATIONS

2013 30,000 40,000 28.6% 2018 32,800 40,000 19.8% 2023 35,900 40,000 10.8% 2033 43,000 40,000 -7.2%

AAGR 2013-2033 1.49% 0.00% BASED AIRCRAFT

2013 50 47 6.2% 2018 55 47 15.7% 2023 60 47 24.3% 2033 70 47 39.3%

AAGR 2013-2033 1.70% 0.00% Source: Coffman Associates analysis ANNUAL INSTRUMENT APPROACHES An instrument approach, as defined by the FAA, is “an approach to an airport with the in-tent to land an aircraft in accordance with an Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flight plan, when visibility is less than three miles and/or when the ceiling is at or below the minimum initial approach altitude.” To qualify as an instrument approach, aircraft must land at the Airport after following one of the published instrument approach procedures. Forecasts of annual instrument approaches (AIAs) provide guidance in determining an airport’s requirements for navigational aid facilities. Practice or training approaches do not count as AIAs.

While AIAs can be partially attributed to weather, they may be expected to increase as transient operations and operations by more sophisticated aircraft (e.g., turbo-props and business jets) increase through the planning period. For this reason, AIA projections consider a constant percentage of two percent of annual itinerant opera-tions. The projections are presented in Table 2M.

TABLE 2M Annual Instrument Approaches (AIAs) Marina Municipal Airport

Year AIAs Itinerant

Operations Ratio 2013 402 20,100 2.00% 2018 440 21,976 2.00% 2023 481 24,053 2.00% 2033 576 28,810 2.00%

Source: Coffman Associates analysis



PEAKING CHARACTERISTICS Many aspects of facility planning relate to levels of peaking activity – times when the air-port is busiest. For example, the appropriate size of terminal facilities can be estimated by determining the number of people that could reasonably be expected to use the facility at a given time. The following planning definitions apply to the peak periods:

• Peak Month -- The calendar month when peak aircraft operations occur. • Design Day -- The average day in the peak month. • Busy Day -- The busy day of a typical week in the peak month. • Design Hour -- The peak hour within the design day.

The peak month is an absolute peak within a given year. All other peak periods will be ex-ceeded at various times during the year. The peak period forecasts represent reasonable planning standards that can be applied without overbuilding or being too restrictive. Without the availability of records from a control tower, peak periods must be estimated. The forecast of peak month operations assumes approximately 12 percent of annual opera-tions. This is typical for a general aviation airport that may have some seasonal changes to activity levels, such as fluctuations between winter and summer activity. The design day was then calculated by dividing the peak month operations by 31. The busy day has been estimated at 40 percent higher than the average day in the peak month and was calculated by multiplying the design day by 1.4. Design hour operations were calculat-ed at 17.5 percent of design day operations. Table 2N summarizes the general aviation peak activity forecasts. TABLE 2N Total Peak Operations Forecast


2013 2018 2023 2033 Annual Operations 30,000 32,800 35,900 43,000 Peak Month (12%) 3,600 3,936 4,308 5,160 Busy Day (1.4*Design Day) 163 178 195 233 Design Day (Peak Month/31) 116 127 139 166 Design Hour (17.5%) 20 22 24 29 Source: Coffman Associates analysis GENERAL AVIATION FORECAST SUMMARY The previous sections outline the various activity levels that are reasonably anticipated over the next 20 years at the Marina Municipal Airport. Exhibit 2F presents a summary of the aviation demand forecasts. The baseline year for forecast data is 2013. The forecasting effort extends 20 years to the year 2033.

General Aviation Itinerant 19,800 21,576 23,553 28,010 Local 9,700 10,624 11,647 13,990Military Itinerant 200 200 200 200 Local 200 200 200 200Air Taxi (Itinerant) 100 200 300 600Total Itinerant 20,100 21,976 24,053 28,810Total Local 9,900 10,824 11,847 14,190Total Operations 30,000 32,800 35,900 43,000 Single Engine Piston 43 45 47 54Multi-Engine Piston 0 1 1 2Turboprop 3 4 4 5Business Jet 0 1 2 3Helicopter 0 0 1 1Experimental/Other 4 4 5 5Total Based Aircraft 50 55 60 70

ACTUAL FORECAST2013 2018 2023 2033

ANNUAL OPERATIONS

ANNUAL OPERATIONS

BASED AIRCRAFT

FLEET MIX

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Exhibit 2FFORECAST SUMMARY

ACTUAL FORECAST



Marina Municipal Airport is a general aviation facility as defined by the FAA. As described in Chapter One, Runway 11-29 is 3,483 feet long and 75 feet wide. The Airport provides several sophisticated non-precision instrument approaches that allow pilots to land in conditions where visibility is not less than 1-mile. General aviation activity often trends with national and local economies. The country was in a recessionary period from December 2007 through the third quarter of 2009, and has been slow to recover. Activity at both commercial service and general aviation airports have been down. The Airport has felt the impact of the recession. In 2006, the previous Master Plan estimated the presence of 70 based aircraft. As of 2013, there were 50 based aircraft. Operations are estimated to have declined by 25 percent as well. Forecasts of aviation activity, including based aircraft and operations, is key to determining future facility requirements. The 50 aircraft currently based at the airport are forecast to grow to 70 aircraft by 2033. Similarly, the estimated 30,000 operations in 2013 are fore-cast to grow to approximately 43,000 operations by 2033. The operational fleet mix and type of aircraft based at the Airport is important to determin-ing facility requirements and environmental impacts. Smaller general aviation piston-powered aircraft are anticipated to continue to represent the vast majority of activity at the Airport. Over time, more frequent activity by larger turboprop and potential business jet aircraft is forecast. Based turboprop aircraft are projected to increase from three in 2013 to five in 2033. Currently, there are no based jets; however, the forecast estimates up to three jets by 2033. AIRCRAFT/AIRPORT/RUNWAY CLASSIFICATION The FAA has established several aircraft classification systems that group aircraft types based on their performance (approach speed in landing configuration) and on design char-acteristics (wingspan and landing gear configuration). These classification systems are used to determine the appropriate airport design standards for specific airport elements, such as runways, taxiways, taxilanes, and aprons. AIRCRAFT CLASSIFICATION The selection of appropriate FAA design standards for the development and location of air-port facilities is based primarily on the characteristics of the aircraft which are currently using or are expected to use an airport. The critical design aircraft is used to define the de-sign parameters for an airport. The design aircraft may be a single aircraft type or, more commonly, is a composite aircraft representing a collection of aircraft classified by three parameters: Aircraft Approach Category (AAC), Airplane Design Group (ADG), and Taxiway



Design Group (TDG). FAA AC 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, describes the following air-plane classification systems, the parameters of which are presented on Exhibit 2G.

Aircraft Approach Category (AAC): A grouping of aircraft based on a reference landing speed (VREF), if specified, or if VREF is not specified, 1.3 times stall speed (VSO) at the maxi-mum certificated landing weight. VREF, VSO, and the maximum certificated landing weight are those values as established for the aircraft by the certification authority of the country of registry. The AAC generally refers to the approach speed of an aircraft in landing configuration. The higher the approach speed, the more restrictive the applicable design standards. The AAC, depicted by a letter A through E, is the aircraft approach category and it relates to aircraft approach speed (operational characteristic). Aircraft in AAC A and B include pistons, tur-boprops and small general aviation jets. Aircraft in AAC C, D, and E include medium sized general aviation jets up to larger commercial jets. The AAC generally applies to runways and runway-related facilities, such as runway width, runway safety area (RSA), runway ob-ject free area (ROFA), runway protection zone (RPZ), and separation standards. Airplane Design Group (ADG): The ADG, depicted by a Roman numeral I through VI, is a classification of aircraft which relates to aircraft wingspan or tail height (physical charac-teristic). When the aircraft wingspan and tail height fall in different groups, the higher group is used. The ADG influences design standards for taxiway safety area (TSA), taxiway object free (TOFA), taxilane object free area, apron wingtip clearance, and various separa-tion distances. Taxiway Design Group (TDG): A classification of airplanes that is based on outer-to-outer Main Gear Width (MGW) and Cockpit to Main Gear (CMG) distances. The TDG relates to the undercarriage dimensions of the design aircraft and the TDG standards are based on the MGW and CMG distances. The taxiway design elements determined by the application of the TDG include the taxiway width, taxiway edge safety margin, taxiway shoulder width, taxiway fillet dimensions, and, in some cases, the separation distance between parallel tax-iways/taxilanes. Other taxiway elements, such as the TSA, TOFA, taxiway/taxilane separa-tion to parallel taxiway/taxilanes or fixed or movable objects, and taxiway/taxilane wingtip clearances are determined solely based on the wingspan of the design aircraft utilizing those surfaces. It is appropriate for taxiways to be planned and built to different TDG standards based on expected use. Exhibit 2H summarizes the aircraft classification of the most common aircraft in operation today. Generally, recreational and business piston and turboprop aircraft will fall in ap-proach categories A and B and airplane design groups I and II. Business jets typically fall in approach categories B and C, while commercial aircraft will fall in approach categories C and D.

TAXIWAY DESIGN GROUP (TDG)

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Category Approach Speed A less than 91 knots B 91 knots or more but less than 121 knots C 121 knots or more but less than 141 knots D 141 knots or more but less than 166 knots E 166 knots or more

Group # Tail Height (ft) Wingspan (ft) I <20 <49 II 20-<30 49-<79 III 30-<45 70-<118 IV 45-<60 118-<171 V 60-<66 171-<214 VI 66-<80 214-<262

RVR* (ft) Flight Visibility Category (statute miles) VIS 3-mile or greater visibility minimums 5,000 Not lower than 1-mile 4,000 Lower than 1-mile but not lower than ¾-mile 2,400 Lower than ¾-mile but not lower than ½-mile 1,600 Lower than ½-mile but not lower than ¼-mile 1,200 Lower than ¼-mile

AIRCRAFT APPROACH CATEGORY (AAC)

AIRPLANE DESIGN GROUP (ADG)

VISIBILITY MINIMUMS

*RVR: Runway Visual Range

Exhibit 2GAIRCRAFT CLASSIFICATION PARAMETERS

Source: FAA AC 150/5300-13A, Airport Design

A-I

B-I

B-II

A-III, B-III

C-II, D-II

C-III, D-III

C-IV, D-IV

D-V

• Beech Baron 55• Beech Bonanza• Cessna 150• Cessna 172• Cessna Citation Mustang• Eclipse 500/550• Piper Archer• Piper Seneca

• Beech Baron 58• Beech King Air A90/100• Cessna 402• Cessna 421• Piper Navajo• Piper Cheyenne• Swearingen Metroliner• Cessna Citation I (525)

• DHC Dash 7• DHC Dash 8• DC-3• Convair 580• Fairchild F-27• ATR 72• ATP

• Beech 400• Lear 31, 35, 45, 60• Israeli Westwind

• Super King Air 200• Cessna 441• DHC Twin Otter• Super King Air 350• Beech 1900• Citation Excel (560), Sovereign (680)• Falcon 50, 900, 2000• Citation Bravo (550)• Embraer 120

• ERJ-90• Boeing Business Jet• B-727• B-737-300, 700, 800• MD-80, DC-9• A319, A320

C-III, D-III • ERJ-170• CRJ 705, 900• Falcon 7X• Gulfstream 500, 550, 650• Global Express, Global 5000• Q-400

• B-757• B-767• C-130 Hercules• DC-8-70• MD-11

• B-747-400• B-777• B-787• A-330, A-340

• Cessna Citation X (750)• Gulfstream 100, 200,300• Challenger 300/600• ERJ-135, 140, 145• CRJ-200/700• Embraer Regional Jet• Lockheed JetStar• Hawker 800

Note: Aircraft pictured is identified in bold type.

C-I, D-I

less than ,,100,000 lbs.

• B-747-400•• B-777•

D-V

• B-787•• A-330, A-340•

• B-757•• B-767•• C-130 Hercules•• DC-8-70•• MD-11•

,C-IV, D-IV

• ERJ-90•• Boeing Business Jet•• B-727•• • B-737-300, 700, 800• MD-80, DC-9•• A319, A320•

C-III, D-III over 100,000 lbs.

Exhibit 2HAIRCRAFT REFERENCE CODES

C II D IIA I C C X (750)



AIRPORT AND RUNWAY CLASSIFICATION These classifications, along with the aircraft classifications defined previously, are used to determine the appropriate FAA design standards to which the airfield facilities are to be designed and built. Airport Reference Code (ARC): The ARC is an airport designation that signifies the air-port’s highest Runway Design Code (RDC), minus the third (visibility) component of the RDC. The ARC is used for planning and design only and does not limit the aircraft that may be able to operate safely on the airport. The current ALP for the Airport, which will be up-dated as part of this master planning effort, identifies an ARC of B-I for the Airport with a representative aircraft being a King Air 90. The ultimate design aircraft on the ALP is a Cessna Citation 650 which falls in ARC C-II. Runway Design Code (RDC): A code signifying the design standards to which the runway is to be built. The RDC is based upon planned development and has no operational compo-nent. The AAC, ADG, and RVR are combined to form the RDC of a particular runway. The RDC provides the information needed to determine certain design standards that apply. The first component, depicted by a letter, is the AAC and relates to aircraft approach speed (op-erational characteristics). The second component, depicted by a Roman numeral, is the ADG and relates to either the aircraft wingspan or tail height (physical characteristics), whichever is most restrictive. The third component relates to the visibility minimums ex-pressed by runway visual range (RVR) values in feet of 1,200 (⅛-mile), 1,600 (¼-mile), 2,400 (½-mile), 4,000 (¾-mile), and 5,000 (1-mile). The RVR values approximate standard visibility minimums for instrument approaches to the runways. The third component should read “VIS” for runways designed for visual approach use only.

Approach Reference Code (APRC): A code signifying the current operational capabilities of a runway and associated parallel taxiway with regard to landing operations. Like the RDC, the APRC is composed of the same three components: the AAC, ADG, and RVR. The APRC describes the current operational capabilities of a runway under particular meteoro-logical conditions where no special operating procedures are necessary, as opposed to the RDC which is based upon planned development with no operational component. The APRC for a runway is established based upon the minimum runway-to-taxiway centerline separa-tion. Departure Reference Code (DPRC): A code signifying the current operational capabilities of a runway and associated parallel taxiway with regard to takeoff operations. The DPRC represents those aircraft that can takeoff from a runway while any aircraft are present on adjacent taxiways, under particular meteorological conditions with no special operating conditions. The DPRC is similar to the APRC, but is composed of two components: ACC and



ADG. A runway may have more than one DPRC depending on the parallel taxiway separa-tion distance. CRITICAL DESIGN AIRCRAFT The selection of appropriate FAA design standards for the development and location of air-port facilities is based primarily upon the characteristics of the aircraft which are currently using or are expected to use an airport. The critical design aircraft is used to define the de-sign parameters for an airport. The design aircraft may be a single aircraft or a composite aircraft representing a collection of aircraft classified by the three parameters: AAC, ADG, and TDG. In the case of an airport with multiple runways, a design aircraft is selected for each runway.

The first consideration is the safe operation of aircraft likely to use an airport. Any opera-tion of an aircraft that exceeds design criteria of an airport may result in either an unsafe operation or a lesser safety margin; however, it is not the usual practice to base the airport design on an aircraft that uses the airport infrequently.

The design aircraft is defined as the most demanding category of aircraft, or family of aircraft, which conducts at least 500 itinerant operations per year at an airport or the most demanding aircraft in regularly scheduled commercial service. Planning for future aircraft use is of particular importance since the design standards are used to plan separation distances between facilities. These future standards must be considered now to ensure that short term development does not preclude the reasonable long range potential needs of the airport. According to FAA AC 150/5300-13A, Airport Design, “airport designs based only on existing aircraft can severely limit the ability to expand the airport to meet future requirements for larger, more demanding aircraft. Airport designs that are based on large aircraft never likely to be served by the airport are not economical.” Selection of the current and future critical design aircraft must be realistic in nature and supported by current data and realis-tic projections. CURRENT DESIGN AIRCRAFT At 3,483 feet in length, the runway currently presents limits to the type of aircraft that can safely operate at the airport. Piston-powered aircraft and most turboprop aircraft will like-ly not be limited. Most business jets are not likely to utilize the Airport; however, some small jets such as the Cessna Mustang (B-I), Embraer Phenom 100 (B-I), or Cessna Citation I (B-I), may operate at the airport currently. It is not likely that the combination of current jet aircraft operations at the Airport exceeds the FAA threshold.



There are three turboprops based at the Airport currently. CIRPAS operates two DeHavil-land UV-18A “Twin Otter” turboprops (A-II) and Skydive Monterey operates a King Air A90 (B-I). Table 2P presents the performance characteristics of these aircraft. All three of these aircraft operate frequently. While these aircraft are based at the airport, none of them is utilized for training activity; therefore, their operations would be considered itin-erant in nature. The wheel base of these aircraft places them in TDG 1A. All three of the aircraft have a maximum certified takeoff weight of 12,500 pounds or less. The combina-tion of activity by these aircraft means that the current critical design aircraft for the airport is best described as B-II-1A (small aircraft exclusively). TABLE 2P Critical Aircraft Characteristics

Aircraft Stall

Speed Approach

Speed* Wingspan MTOW AAC/ADG

Cockpit to Main Gear

Width

Taxiway Design Group

De Havilland UV-18A "Twin Otter" 58 knots 75 knots 65' 12,500 lbs. A-II 14.10' 1A

Beech King Air 65-A90 76 knots 99 knots 46' 9,300 lbs. B-I 14.9' 1A

*Vref or 1.3 times stall speed in landing configuration

AAC: Aircraft Approach Category; ADG: Airplane Design Group

MTOW: Maximum Certified Takeoff Weight

Source: Aircraft planning manuals Current Runway Design Code Runways are assigned an RDC. The RDC relates to specific FAA design standards that should be met in relation to each runway. Since the Airport has a single runway, the appli-cable RDC for the runway would have the same AAC and ADG as the airport design aircraft (B-II). The third component of the RDC is RVR as determined by the lowest instrument ap-proach visibility minimums which is 1-mile. Therefore, the RDC for Runway 11-29 is B-II-5000. FUTURE AIRPORT DESIGN AIRCRAFT As documented previously, operations are forecast to grow over the 20-year planning hori-zon and the based aircraft fleet mix is forecast to realize additional turboprop and jet air-craft. The most immediate possibility is the introduction of a converted A-10 military jet by CIRPAS. CIRPAS currently owns this aircraft and desires to relocate it from a base in Okla-homa to the Airport in the near future. This aircraft has a stall speed of 120 knots, which equates to an approach speed of 156 knots. The wingspan is 57.5 feet wide. To fully ac-commodate the converted A-10 as the design aircraft, design standards associated with C/D-II-2 should be considered.



Airport management desires to attract additional activity to the Airport. For example, they are actively marketing the currently vacant restaurant facility. They are hopeful to attract a full service FBO that might make the airport more attractive to business jet operators. They have also considered the possibility of regular air cargo activity. Any additional activ-ity by aircraft in design category C/D would contribute to the overall justification for im-plementing these design standards. Future Runway Design Code The RDC for a single runway will have the same AAC and ADG as the airport design aircraft. The RVR (visibility component) may change based on analysis and recommendations re-garding potential instrument approach capability. An initial starting point is to consider a precision instrument approach which typically provides visibility minimums as low as ½-mile. Therefore, the future RDC would be classified as C/D-II-2400. It should be noted that additional analysis to be conducted in this Master Plan (i.e., Facility Requirements and Alternatives) may require adjustment of the future design standards to be applied to the airport. Various design standards associated with D-II-2400 may not be able to be reasonably met. For example, C/D-II design standards are typically associated with a longer runway than currently exists. If it is not feasible to plan for extension of the runway, then it would not be necessary to apply the more restrictive design standards as-sociated with C/D-II. Nonetheless, based on potential demand generated particularly by the A-10 jet, further analysis will consider the feasibility of improving the airport to meet C/D-II design standards. SUMMARY This forecast chapter has presented forecasts of aviation demand indicators for Marina Municipal Airport. Based aircraft are forecast to grow from 50 currently to 70 within 20 years. Total annual operations are forecast to grow from 30,000 currently to 43,000 over the course of the next 20 years. The current critical design aircraft falls in design code B-II-1A (small aircraft exclusively). This classification is based on the two DeHavilland UV-18A “Twin Otter” turboprops (A-II) and a King Air A90 (B-I) based at the Airport. All of these aircraft are operated on a fre-quent basis from the Airport. The future design aircraft for the Airport is planned around the desire of CIRPAS to relocate their converted A-10 Thunderbolt jet to the Airport. This design aircraft is classified as C/D-II-2. Policies being considered by the City, such as the addition of an FBO to the Air-port, could also help increase activity by aircraft in AAC C/D, which would help to justify the planned transition in the RDC for the runway.



The next step in the master planning process is to use the forecasts to determine develop-ment needs for the Airport through 2033. Chapter Three – Facility Requirements will ad-dress airside elements, such as safety areas, runways, taxiways, lighting, and navigational aids, as well as landside requirements, including hangars, aircraft aprons, and support ser-vices. The remaining portions of the master plan will lay out how that growth can be ac-commodated in an orderly, efficient, and cost-effective manner.

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