3

CHAPTER THREE—CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

The Pacific Assessment encouraged and supportedexploration of climate vulnerability in the context of sixactivities:

• Providing access to fresh water;

• Protecting public health;

• Ensuring public safety in extreme events and protectingcommunity infrastructure;

• Sustaining agriculture;

• Sustaining tourism; and,

• Promoting wise use of marine and coastal resources.

These activities were identified in discussions at the 1998Workshop and subsequent meetings of the steering andorganizing committees, and chosen based on their sensitiv-ity to climate, their role in maintaining the well being ofisland communities, and/or the special values attributed tothe activities by island people. Also explored during theAssessment were the linkages and interactions among theseactivities, and the extent to which interdependencies mightameliorate or exacerbate vulnerability to climate changeand variability. The following sections summarize insightsinto climate-related vulnerability in the Pacific Islands;these insights emerged from the March 1998 and Novem-ber 2000 Pacific Assessment Workshops, as well asindividual small-group discussions with representatives ofkey stakeholder groups, and from analytical studies thatsupported the Assessment.

Providing Access to Fresh Water

As one participant in the March 1998 Workshop noted,“Water is gold.” Water’s value is even greater in islandsettings where surface water is limited if it exists at all,aquifers are small and fragile, and potable water may beavailable only from rooftop catchment systems. Given theprecarious state of island hydrological systems, climatechange or protracted anomalous conditions can haveextreme effects on water supply. For example, during the1982–83 ENSO warm event, Majuro’s reservoir held 6million gallons (Mgal) on January 1. By January 17, thewater had dropped to 4.8 Mgal. By May 1983, totalstorage had dwindled to 0.8 Mgal, most of which wasbeing reserved for the hospital (Republic of the MarshallIslands, 1999).5 Similarly, during the 1997–98 ENSOwarm event, all islands in the North Pacific experienced a

rainfall deficit, and water managers were forced to rationmunicipal water supplies. The Marshall Islands againsuffered the most extreme water shortages; at the height ofthe drought, municipal water on Majuro was only availablefor seven hours every fourteen days.

The problems of limited water supply are intensified byincreasing demand for water. Population growth rates insome Pacific Islands are quite high. The NorthernMarianas, for example, have an estimated annual popula-tion growth rate of 5.6%. The Marshall Islands areestimated to grow at a rate of 4.2% per year and AmericanSamoa at 3.7% (SPC, 2000).6 Further, domestic andinternational migration has contributed to the rapid

Evolution and geology have provided certain Pacific Islands withabundant sources of fresh water. Most, however, are not so bountifullyendowed, and must manage their water with great care, especially inlight of the growing impact of climate variability on this vitalresource.

5 Report from the Republic of the Marshall Islands presented at theWorkshop on ENSO Impacts on Water Resources in the Pacific,held in Nadi, Fiji, October 19–23, 1999.

6 Secretariat for the Pacific Community. 2000. “Selected PacificEconomies— A Statistical Summary”

4

growth of urban centers throughout the region. If thehabitability of small islands and atolls is threatened byenvironmental change, migration to urban centers andhigh islands is likely to increase even more.

In addition to population pressure, economic developmentthroughout the region also presents new demands on waterresources. Tuna processing plants in American Samoa, forinstance, require tremendous amounts of fresh water daily.Tourism, the premier industry in many island economies,is also water intensive. The island of Guam, for instance,had 8,119 hotel rooms in 1997, and the hotel occupancyrate for that year was 82% (Osman, 1999a).7 This suggeststhat on any given day, Guam’s water supply supported6,650 visitors, roughly 4.4% of Guam’s population in1997.

Maintenance of golf courses, a popular tourist attraction,places additional pressure on precious local water resources.On several islands, disputes over access to limited watersupplies have divided communities and entangled stateagencies, private industries and citizens’ groups in lengthylegal battles. On some islands, availability of water is themajor problem, while on other islands, distribution is thefocus of disputes. Long-standing institutional arrangementsfor managing water are challenged to adapt to the com-bined pressures of dwindling supplies and increasingdemands. The search for alternative water suppliescontinues in earnest with research and development intodesalinization projects such as reverse osmosis systems.

After the 1997–1998 ENSO warm event, the islands ofSaipan, Majuro, Yap and Palau all made significantimprovements in water storage and delivery systems. Theseinitiatives have been complemented by efforts to reducedemand and promote efficient water use; new legislation inCNMI, for instance, imposes fines for wasting water.Water management institutions, whether based ontraditional arrangements or administered by municipal,territorial or state agencies, have already benefited fromclimate information in their efforts to predict water supplyand demand and allocate water supplies.

Findings and RecommendationsDiscussions during the Pacific Assessment reinforced theimportance of addressing the adequacy and long-termstability of island water resources. They also highlightedthe importance of effects on fresh-water resources as anunderlying factor in determining the consequences ofclimate variability and change for most activities consid-

ered in the Assessment. During the November 2000Workshop, for example, the importance of understandingclimate-related changes in fresh-water resources was seen asparticularly central to agriculture, including subsistencefarming and fishing as well as cash crops; to fish processingand trans-shipment; to domestic use of water; to tourismand other commercial uses; to public health; and tomaintenance of natural ecosystems. Exploring the implica-tions of competition for this limited resource can be asimportant as understanding the effects of climate variabil-ity and change on any activity individually.

Along with these differences, Pacific Islands share a numberof common characteristics that influence their ability torespond to the effects of climate variability and change ontheir fresh-water resources. For example, Pacific Islandsshare a general reliance on rain-fed sources of fresh water—whether groundwater, surface water or rainfall catchmentsystems— and this reliance on rainfall makes themparticularly sensitive to climate extremes like prolongeddroughts. Furthermore, a reliance on multiple sources offresh water imposes a variety of requirements for waterquality and treatment.

Pacific Islands are experiencing increasing development andpopulation pressures, which are reflected in land usechanges that affect water quality and quantity.

CLIMATE MODERATORS

A number of Pacific Island characteristics influence theeffects of climate on fresh-water resources, including:

• Island type, most notably the differences between “highislands” with greater groundwater and surface-waterassets, and “low islands” with limited freshwater lensesand very little (if any) groundwater sources;

• Demographics, including population growth, overseasimmigration and emigration, and internal migration intourban centers from smaller communities in moreremote, low-lying islands and atolls;

• Remoteness, which is related to the population issuesdescribed above, and to distance from potentialsources of fresh water during emergencies;

• Access to technology, including issues related to theability to acquire new technology and maintain existingor new facilities;

• Economic activity, including reliance on water-intensiveindustries like tourism, agriculture and fisheries asdominant sources of national income; and,

• Social and cultural characteristics, including issuesrelated to land tenure and resource management.

7 Bank of Hawai‘i. Guam Economic Report, October 1999.

5

8 Hawai‘i Supreme Court. 1879. Re: Boundaries of Pulehunui,4 Haw. 239, 241.

The Ahupua‘a Resource Management System used in Hawai‘i is a model of integratedmanagement— it combines science with traditional Hawaiian knowledge and practices tooptimize use and conservation of resources “from the mountains to the sea.”

Storage capacity and water distribution systems in theislands are already stressed; while some improvements (likefixing leaks in distribution pipelines) may be relatively easy,major improvements to infrastructure will require substan-tial economic investments. On many islands, much of thewater distribution infrastructure is old and needs to bereplaced. It is estimated, for example, that water andwastewater improvements on Guam could exceed $250million. As is the case with all activities discussed duringthe Assessment, addressing these basic infrastructureconcerns will be an important first step in improving theability to cope with climate variability and change, as wellas other stresses on water resources.

Discussions about how to enhance the resilienceof Pacific Islands to climate-related stresses on fresh-waterresources focused on responding in three categories: naturalsystems (surface and ground water, watersheds, wetlands,near-shore waters); human and institutional systems(including urban centers, rural communities, governmentagencies and regulatory regimes) and specific economicactivities (e.g., agriculture, tourism, fish processing,domestic use/personal consumption). Table 3.1 summa-rizes key recommendations in each of these areas.

One of the common themes that emerged throughout thePacific Assessment involved exploration of how traditionalknowledge and practices can be applied to today’s climate-related problems and to planning for the future. In the caseof fresh-water resources, this discussion focused on thespecific example of the ahupua‘a resource managementsystem used by early Hawaiians. Ahupua‘a, the ancientHawaiian geopolitical land divisions, ran “from sea soil to

the mountainside or top,” providing the chiefsand the people all that was needed to thrive onthe most remote archipelago on the planet. Asone author describes:

“A principle very largely obtaining inthese divisions of territory was that aland should run from the sea to themountains, thus affording to the chiefand his people a fishery residence at thewarm seaside, together with the productsof the high lands, such as fuel, canoetimber, mountain birds, and the right ofway to the same, and all the variedproducts of the intermediate land asmight be suitable to the soil and climateof the different altitudes from sea soil tomountainside or top.” (Hawai‘i SupremeCourt, 1879)8

The ahupua‘a system evolved in a virtual fresh-water oasisin the largest saltwater desert on earth. It has survived forclose to two thousand years while undergoing numerouschanges and adaptations. A modern version, the Ahupua‘aResource Management System (ARMS), is receivingwidespread attention today because of growing awarenessthat globalization and global warming pose serious threatsto the fragile natural and cultural resources of Hawai‘i. Byintegrating ancient wisdom and modern science, resourcemanagers are finding that the ahupua‘a system addressessuch major challenges as watershed management, ecosys-tem restoration, integrated land and water-use planning,and integrated coastal zone management. Althoughconsideration of the ARMS arose initially in discussionsabout fresh-water resources, this resource managementapproach also can be used to improve resilience in agricul-ture as well as coastal and marine resource management.Because the ahupua‘a system is also a place-based economicsystem, it offers a framework for diversifying the economyof Hawai‘i and other Pacific Islands, and opens upunlimited potential for workforce development as we seekadaptive strategies to meet the challenges of globalizationand global warming.

One of the characteristics of the ARMS is the involvementof experts and stakeholders from all walks of life indiscussions and decision-making. This concept of engagingmultidisciplinary, multisectoral teams of experts in thedevelopment of effective adaptation strategies was arecurring theme throughout the Pacific Assessment.

6

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Underlying such an ap-proach is a fundamentalrequirement: the need tobuild trust and establishlong-term, collaborativerelationships among thediverse stakeholders.Participants in the Assess-ment recommended that thePacific Assessment process becontinued as a mechanismfor establishing suchpartnerships through asustained dialogue on thechallenges and opportunitiesof climate variability andchange.

ProtectingPublic Health

Closely related to fresh-waterresource issues are concernsabout the consequences ofclimate variability and changefor public health. Severalrecent initiatives aim toevaluate the effects of climateand extreme events on health.Though temperature extremescan have direct impacts onhuman health, and severalreports attempt to draw directrelationships between climateand emotional health, it isclimate’s impact on pathogensand disease vectors that maypose the greatest threat to themost people. In Pacific Island communities, the impact ofdroughts on subsistence agriculture and food supplies canalso pose a significant climate-related health risk.

A number of infectious diseases in Pacific Island communi-ties are climate-sensitive, including dengue, leptospirosis,malaria, filariasis, cholera, Ross Valley fever, influenza andother upper respiratory infections, gastroenteritis andcryptosporidiosis. Increases in global travel and trade areincreasing the risk that these and other infectious diseasesmay spread in Pacific Island communities.

Preliminary research on the relationship between climatevariability and dengue fever (a mosquito-borne viral disease)

suggests that the risk of dengue fever may increase duringdry periods in which a tropical storm or cyclone brings abrief period of heavy rainfall. It also appears that in someparts of the Pacific, the risk of dengue is higher duringnormal years and La Niña years than during El Niño years.Rainfall clearly has an impact on mosquito populations,and other research has shown that increases in temperatureincrease the risk of dengue outbreaks. Understanding theselinks between climate and dengue fever is importantbecause, among vector-borne diseases, dengue is secondonly to malaria in numbers of people affected worldwide(Gubler et al., 2001). The relationship between climatevariability and dengue fever, diarrheal disease, cholera,leptospirosis and ciguatera will be explored in a research

7

REDUCING VULNERABILITY TOCLIMATE-RELATED HEALTH RISKS

• Improve hospitals and other healthcare facilities,especially infrastructure related to acute care

• Improve water resource and sanitation infrastructure

• Improve the communication of climate information to thehealth sector and enhance the capabilities of localmeteorological services and climate research programsin the Pacific

• Enhance public health surveillance systems in thePacific

• Enhance healthcare education and training programs

• Improve emergency services delivery systems

• Update and implement comprehensive emergencymanagement programs that address preparedness aswell as response

• Update and implement healthcare plans that emphasizepreventative care

• Integrate existing climate information (e.g., ENSOforecasts) into healthcare and emergency-servicesplanning on a regular basis

• Enhance efforts to integrate traditional knowledge andpractices into discussions of climate and health,including the engagement of traditional leaders andteachers

• Integrate information on climate variability and changeinto planning and decision-making in key sectors, mostnotably water resource management and agriculture

• Pursue community planning and economic developmentprograms that encourage a shift toward sustainability,particularly in water usage and agriculture

• Enhance education and training programs, includingtechnical training for healthcare practitioners andclimate scientists, as well as public awareness andoutreach programs at the local level

• Improve the ways in which information about climateand health is provided, in part by adopting traditionallanguage(s) to convey improved information about localclimate and health conditions

project proposed for the Cook Islands, FSM and Fiji overthe next three years (Hamnett and Lewis, personalcommunication).

Climate change affects ecological conditions that influenceboth human pathogens and the habitats of disease vectors.Climatic and environmental perturbations can create newconditions for infectious diseases. In the aftermath ofTyphoon Nina, which struck in November of 1987, theChuukese suffered an increase in amebiasis, a parasiticdisease associated with fecally contaminated water (FEMA,1992). Similarly, outbreaks of cholera may be associated

with climate variability and extreme events (Pascual et al,2000). Cholera outbreaks can have severe consequences forany community. In calendar year 2000, FSM attributed 19deaths and 709 hospital admissions in Pohnpei State tocholera.

Understanding the vulnerability of human populations toclimate-sensitive diseases and disease vectors is improved bythe use of models that integrate epidemiological methodswith models of complex systems dynamics. For instance,Martens (1999) suggests that, based on “first generation”models of complex interactions, malaria and dengue willenjoy warmer environments, while temperature increaseswould be less conducive to schistosomiasis. Such findingsare even more useful when they incorporate socioculturalvariables that may provide information about the distribu-tion of vulnerability within populations.

In addition to these vector-borne diseases, there are anumber of synergistic relationships that increase thevulnerability of Pacific Island communities to climatevariability and change. There is a strong relationshipbetween both drought and flood and diarrheal diseasesrelated to contamination of water supplies, although theexact nature of those impacts will differ from island toisland (e.g., impacts on high islands with significantreservoirs of freshwater will be different than the impactsexperienced on low islands with limited storage capacity).In this context, Assessment participants gave priority tounderstanding and addressing the health-related conse-quences of extreme events such as prolonged droughts,floods, or hurricanes and typhoons.

Another risk involves the potential for nutritional problemscaused by the effects of climate on agriculture— mostnotably the effects of drought on subsistence crops and theeffects of increasing ocean temperatures (and other climate-related changes) on subsistence fish species. In addition toenhancing the risk of a number of specific conditions suchas anemia and low birth weight, malnutrition also tends todecrease the collective immunity of affected populations.In general it should be noted that geographic isolation, aswell as social, economic and political inequalities, greatlyexacerbate health problems and the delivery of healthcare.

Vulnerability to climate-related health risks is affected bysociocultural practices and beliefs as well. Certain behaviors(such as regular water treatment) or values (regardinghealth, well being and prevention) can be influential inreducing exposure. Public information campaigns arecredited with reducing the incidence of diarrheal disease inPalau and Pohnpei during the 1997 ENSO-related drought(Hamnett, personal communication). Public health in

8

FOCUS: INTEGRATION OF TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICE

Another process considered appropriate for infusion oftraditional knowledge and practice was implementation oflong-term, proactive approaches to climate adaptation, acommon theme that emerged throughout the Assessment. Forexample, in early discussions of how best to sustainagriculture, participants recommended embracing the conceptof meninkairoir – a Carolinian word that means “lookingahead” or “taking the long view.”

Yet others expressed serious interest in an ahupua‘aapproach to watershed and resource management, providinganother strong example of the value to many of exploringtraditional approaches to resource management. Such place-based, historical interpretations of the environment cansignificantly enrich contemporary understanding of the localconsequences of climate variability and change. In addition,when we develop a better appreciation for how earlyHawaiians and other indigenous peoples used their compre-hension of climate to support decision-making, we gainvaluable insights into how we might better integrate climateobservations and information into our daily decisions.

For example, during the November 2000 “Workshop onClimate and Island Coastal Communities,” Kumu Hula JohnKa‘imikaua spoke of the importance of people becoming moreaware of the environment around them by using their sensesand na‘au (gut instinct, or intuition), as well as their intellect, tounderstand their relationship to the climate system. Toillustrate, Ka‘imikaua described how early Hawaiianscharacterized the many types of winds on Moloka‘i in terms ofdirection, strength, scent or feel; he added that each of thesedescriptions conveyed an understanding of importantcorresponding conditions such as the availability of certainfish in coastal waters, or the timeliness of planting certaincrops.

In her 1992 book “La‘au Hawai‘i, Traditional Hawaiian Uses ofPlants,” Isabella Abbott noted, for example, “Early westernobservers were impressed with the bounty that the Hawaiianstook from the land and the expertise they showed in manipu-lating their crops. Hawaiian understanding of their plants andthe handling of plant varieties to suit the different ecologicalniches available on each island enabled them to reap anabundant harvest from limited cropland with considerablecertainty.”

By exploring traditional knowledge, people and institutions inthe Pacific today can perhaps relearn the value of greaterpersonal intimacy with the environment that sustains us— andthereby respond more holistically to the cues it continuouslyprovides.

Regardless of the topic being discussed at gatherings for thePacific Assessment, there emerged a strong call for theintegration of traditional knowledge and practice into morecontemporary methodologies of climate observations, research,assessment and response being considered for the region. Thiscall was particularly clear in discussions of how Pacific Islandcommunities might better adapt, or reduce their vulnerability, toclimate variability and change. For example, in discussionsabout possible changes in coastal resource management,repeated emphasis was placed on the importance of evaluatinghistorical experience through the prism of traditional practices,as well as through more recent, “western” managementparadigms.

In this context, the oral histories of indigenous peoples were putforward as a valuable source of knowledge applicable in thecontext of climate assessment. The oral traditions of NativeHawaiians, for example, include the intergenerational transmis-sion of ancient resource management practices encoded instories (mo‘olelo), chants (mele) and dance (hula). Demonstra-tion of these multisensory expressions of ancient wisdom bycontemporary practitioners is a powerful testament to theirsurvival over time, and underscores the claim that traditionalknowledge was intended to continue forever (a mau a mau).Such nonwritten forms of communication can be effective toolsfor public education that transcend not only generations, but alsobarriers of culture and language. Along these lines, it wasrecommended that more be done to enhance the historicalrecord of climate events and adaptations by integrating oralhistories with observations of climate from instrumented records.

Furthermore, traditional leaders and teachers were identified ascritical sources of insights into the vulnerability of Pacific Islandcommunities to climate variability and change, and as importantactors in the development and implementation of adaptationand mitigation strategies. The importance of engaging thesetraditional experts was highlighted in discussions about adaptingthe Hawaiian institution of an ‘aha council, in which all affectedparties work to resolve resource management concerns throughsustained dialogue and shared decision-making.

Traditional leaders and teachers were also identified asimportant information brokers in Pacific Island communities,with a vital role to play in increasing public awareness of thechallenges and opportunities of climate variability and change.In this role, these leaders could facilitate the development andacceptance of effective response options that respect culturalconsiderations, as well as economic and environmental ones.Discussions of public education and awareness furthermoreemphasized the valuable role that local experts can play inpresenting climate information in local languages.

general is supported by the direct intervention of health-care providers, whether they are traditional healers, medicalprofessionals, public health officials or international aidworkers. Through various organizational and institutionalarrangements, these healthcare providers may be respon-

sible for designing and implementing programmaticresponses to public health problems. These projects arelikely to be enhanced by the use of climate information.

9

Findings and RecommendationsThe current state of public health in the Pacific Islands issensitive to climate variability and change largely throughclimate-related effects on infectious diseases, fresh-waterresources and food supplies. The following characteristics ofhealthcare, demographics and socioeconomic conditions inthe Pacific Islands affect the region’s vulnerability to climate:

• variations in availability of and access to healthcarefacilities, especially for communities in remote outerislands;

• a high proportion of substandard facilities;

• a general shortage of doctors, healthcare providers andmedicine;

• variations in cultural acceptability (and hence use) ofhealthcare facilities;

• remoteness from emergency response providers;

• vulnerability to epidemics and diseases introduced to theislands through movement of goods and services fromother places;

• high population growth rates in some islands (e.g., theRepublic of the Marshall Islands) with consequentimplications for limited island resources;

• varying and interrelated status of socioeconomicdevelopment, poverty, nutritional status and sanitaryconditions; and,

• varying levels of education, including health andenvironmental education.

It is important to note that climate variability and changeimpose added pressures on a public health infrastructurethat is already stressed in many Pacific Island jurisdictions.

While the entire population of island communities isexposed to public health risks associated with climatevariability and change, there are a number of groups that areparticularly vulnerable, including the elderly and the veryyoung; individuals with limited access to resources; ruralcommunities with limited water storage, drainage andsanitation; and communities with limited access to immuni-zations and general health support.

Current understanding of the effects of climate variabilityand change on health in the Pacific (and globally) isconstrained by a number of factors; these include:

• limitations on the availability and quality of climatedata, and access to it, on a scale (resolution) compatiblewith health studies, as well as the absence of healthcarestatistics and information on local or subnational scales;

• limited research on specific climate-health connections,such as multidisciplinary case studies that explore thepotential for effective use of climate forecasts andinformation to reduce health risks in the Pacific;

• the need to develop new methodological approaches,as current statistical methods and modeling techniquesdo not always work for climate and health studies;

• the absence of focused exploration and integration ofindigenous knowledge and practices into responseoptions; and,

• the absence of information and research on synergisticrelationships like that between public health and theeffect of climate on agriculture and water resources.

As a result, one of the principal recommendations thatemerged from the Assessment was that support be in-creased for scientific efforts to address these factors. Inthinking about additional ways to reduce the vulnerabilityof Pacific Island communities, a number of actions wererecommended to strengthen infrastructure and enhance thecapabilities of the communities.

In all cases, participants in the Pacific Assessment recom-mended building on the capabilities of existing institutionsand programs such as the Pacific Islands Health OfficersAssociation (PIHOA); health surveillance programsthrough the Pacific Community and similar programs ofthe WHO; the national meteorological and hydrologicalservices, and the PEAC as a critical first step.

Furthermore, participants in the Assessment encouragedcollaboration between sectors and communities withinindividual jurisdictions, as well as among Pacific Islandnations in the pursuit of these recommended actions.Cooperation between islands and among island communi-ties, for example, could prove useful in leveraging resourcessuch as investments in disease control infrastructure anddrugs. Similarly, participants emphasized the importance ofensuring that individual government agencies provide aconsistent message regarding climate and health condi-tions. As noted earlier, climate variability and change mayincrease or decrease the likelihood of a given infectiousdisease but there are many other factors involved, includinghuman behavior. As a result, underlying all of the recom-mendations that emerged from the Assessment was a callfor continuous dialogue and enhanced cooperation amonghealthcare officials and practitioners, scientists, govern-ments, businesses and community leaders, as part of aregional effort to understand and address the consequencesof climate variability and change for Pacific Islands.

10

Extreme events such as tropical storms can have a dramatic effect on lives,property and ecosystems in the Pacific Islands; these consequences make clear theimportance of collaborative efforts to reduce vulnerability to such events.

Ensuring Public Safety inExtreme Events and ProtectingCommunity Infrastructure

Island coastal communities have a long history of weather-ing extreme events. Typhoons, heavy winds, torrentialdownpours, tidal surges and floods have taught pastgenerations about the shear force of nature. Buildings arecollapsed, trees are uprooted and airborne debris becomeslethal projectiles. Unfortunate souls caught in powerfulstorms can be injured or even killed. In December 1997,Typhoon Paka hit Guam with sustained winds of 150–160mph. At least 17 injuries were reported and scores of homeswere destroyed. FEMA provided more than $109 million ofrecovery assistance, but total damages on Guam exceeded$600 million (Guard, 2001, personal communication).Following Typhoon Paka, Guam enhanced enforcement ofbuilding standards (among the strongest in the U.S.) andchanged insurability standards.

Though there are few major rivers in the region, flash floodscan be swift and deadly. The likelihood of extreme floodingand mudslides is increased dramatically when deforestationleaves the already fragile island soils even more vulnerable tothe effects of heavy rains. The incidence of coastal inunda-tion is expected to increase in the islands in coming years,with variations in sea level experienced as both extremeevents and gradual encroachment on coastal areas.

On the other end of the hydrological extreme, droughts canpose threats to public safety, for instance, by increasing therisk of wildfires. Smoke from these fires not only leads torespiratory ailments and skin and eye irritations, it alsodramatically reduces visibility and has been blamed for

plane crashes, boating accidents, and uncountedmotor vehicle fatalities.

The tragedy of extreme climatological events issoftened only by foresight and preparedness invulnerable communities. All of the U.S.-affiliatedislands have some official agency responsible forpreparedness, and for response to damage fromextreme events. Emergency management and civildefense agencies develop disaster response plans andconduct public information campaigns. And theNational Weather Service, thanks to advances inmeteorological monitoring and prediction, can giveadvance warning of tropical storm events. Unfortu-nately, responsibility for mitigation is spread amongseveral agencies and is not as well organized aspreparedness and response. The built environment,

whether concrete and steel or bamboo and pandanus, issusceptible to the forces of nature. Since World War II,government and the private sector have made a tremendousinvestment in homes, public buildings and tourismfacilities. In many areas, however, current buildingstandards leave buildings and infrastructure vulnerable tohigh winds, flooding and coastal erosion. In this situation,if the frequency and severity of extreme events increase,greater losses can be expected in the future.

In Hawai‘i, the Army Corps of Engineers conducted asurvey of the vulnerability of energy and lifeline facilities tohurricanes or tsunamis (Army Corps of Engineers, 1992).They found that numerous electrical power plants andsubstations were located within coastal inundation zones.Similarly, petroleum and gas storage facilities are mostlylocated at sea level, within the commercial harbor areas ofall the Hawaiian Islands. Kaua’i’s experience duringHurricane Iniki provides a compelling example of theimportance of reducing the vulnerability of energy systems;the disruption of Kaua’i’s electrical system by Iniki shutdown operation of the island’s water distribution systemeven though water was available. The situation on theisland of Lana‘i is particularly instructive because, althoughits terminal facilities are not subject to flooding, stormdamage to the breakwater allows waves to enter the harbor,thus preventing fuel barges from entering to off-load fuel;similar scenarios might be envisioned for other criticalshipments.

Also at risk are lifeline facilities, including communica-tions, telephone offices, fire and police stations andwastewater facilities, thus exacerbating the potential threatsto public health and safety already associated with extremeevents (such as hurricanes and storm surge), as well as thepotential long-term implications of sea-level rise.

11

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Findings and RecommendationsIn considering the challenges of ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure, a number of climate-related hazards of concern were identified, includingdroughts; fires (as a secondary hazard often associated withdrought conditions); typhoons, hurricanes and severecyclones (with wind, wave, and rain/flooding hazards);floods and heavy rains (with mud and landslide hazards);episodic high surf conditions; sea-level variation (onvarious time scales) and long-term sea-level rise (withcoastal inundation hazards). Table 3.2 provides estimates ofthe current vulnerability of Pacific Island jurisdictions tosome of these hazards.

ENSO events play a critical role in this region, so partici-pants in Assessment discussions about ensuring publicsafety and protecting community infrastructure decided tofocus specifically on four possible futures: (1) continuationof the current pattern of El Niño events (dry one year andwet the following year); (2) more frequent or “persistent”El Niño (dry) conditions; (3) more frequent heavy rain/

monsoon-like events; and (4) an increase in temperatureand general intensification of the hydrological cycle. Table3.3 provides a summary of how those four potentialconditions might affect the climate-related hazards ofconcern to those charged with ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure.

Setting these possible future scenarios in the context ofexisting experiences, the following conclusions were drawnabout the capacity of Pacific Island jurisdictions to respondto the public safety challenges of climate variability andchange:

• The capability of Pacific Islands to cope with climate-related hazards and natural disasters is already limited.

• There is great dependence on outside assistance duringdisasters, and this dependence increases with the severityof an event.

• Recovery from severe disasters is slow and difficult.

• Should the frequency and/or intensity of individualextreme events increase, islands may be less able toabsorb and recover from disasters.

12

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• Resource-restricted islands find it particularly difficultto absorb a series or combination of disasters, and it isnot clear how or under what conditions emergencyresponse and recovery systems might reach a breakingpoint.

• There are significant differences within the region inthe expected impacts of future climate scenarios, and inthe capabilities of specific jurisdictions to respond tothose impacts.

• While information on standard adaptive techniquessuch as setbacks, seawalls and flood-reduction measuresis fairly readily available, care should be taken to ensurethat designs are appropriate to specific jurisdictions, andthat the impacts of those response options on otheraspects of a community’s vulnerability are assessed; and,

• Appropriate responses depend on a better understand-ing of current conditions and on development of morereliable climate scenarios and site-specific information.

Underlying specific recommendations for enhancing theadaptive capacity of Pacific Island jurisdictions was a call tomove from today’s more reactive disaster-response systemsto systems that are more anticipatory, encompassingdisaster prevention and preparedness as well as emergencyresponse, recovery and mitigation. Such a proactive

approach was viewed as the most economical over thelong term, and would also produce near-term benefits toindividual jurisdictions and the region as a whole. Simi-larly, implementing incremental, near-term adaptivemeasures that respond to today’s patterns of naturalvariability (most notably ENSO events) can result in near-term savings and provide valuable insights into designingstrategies for effective response to long-term climatechange. Iterative, incremental changes represent a morelikely scenario for adaptation to climate change than large,instantaneous changes.

Other recommendations were also made to enhance theability of Pacific Islands to ensure public safety and protectinfrastructure in the face of climate variability and change;these include:

• Improve efforts to monitor and predict climateconditions and changes.

• Integrate existing information about climate variabilityand change (e.g., ENSO forecasts) into emergencypreparedness planning.

• Continuously monitor sea-level changes and use data toevaluate inundation and flooding maps and planningassumptions.

13

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• Shift to more sustain-able systems of waterusage and agriculture.

• Integrate disastermanagement policiesand enhance the flowof information acrossall levels of govern-ment by creatinginteragency, cross-jurisdictional bodiessuch as the govern-ment-wide task forcesestablished in anumber of PacificIsland jurisdictions torespond to the 1997–1998 El Niño event.

• Conduct island- andcountry-level assess-ments of climate-related vulnerabilities,and identify prioritiesfor response options.

• Develop and/orupdate island andmultihazard nationalemergency manage-ment plans.

• Embed emergencypreparedness andresponse needs in asustainable develop-ment planning context designed to improve environ-mental, educational, public health and living standards,as well as to promote economic development.

• Implement and enforce existing hazard mitigationmeasures and policies.

• Increase integration of traditional knowledge, adapta-tion strategies and cultural practices into contemporarydisaster management strategy.

• Take greater advantage of new technologies like lasermapping techniques and computer-assisted decision-support systems like GIS and visualization tools.

• Improve ties between scientists and decision-makers.

• Strengthen education and outreach programs that areresponsive to local needs, and broaden public awarenessand involvement in decision-making.

From the perspective of ensuring public safety andprotecting community infrastructure, nearly all islandcommunities, systems and activities are affected by climatevariability and change. However, it was agreed that effectson fresh-water quality and availability are particularly

critical over the near and long term, and should receivepriority in efforts to reduce vulnerability. As a result,immediate repair of infrastructure problems was stronglyencouraged, as was local assessment of available waterresources (including surface, groundwater and rainfallcatchment systems) and water storage and distributionsystems.

Sustaining Commercial andSubsistence Agriculture

Agriculture, both commercial and subsistence, remains animportant part of the economies of many of the islandsaddressed in this Assessment. Climate-related changes inrainfall and tropical storm patterns present problems foragriculture in island communities, as evidenced by theeffects of the 1997–1998 El Niño event in the Pacific.Agriculture throughout the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands in1997 and 1998 suffered from the droughts, except onGuam. There, farmers used public water for irrigation, andthe delay of heavy rains toward the end of the drought

14

Commercial and subsistence farming in the Pacific Islands are subject to the sameclimate-induced problems, including drought and salinization of fresh-water sourcesdue to sea-level rise.

resulted in one of the most productive harvests in recenthistory. In the CNMI, citrus and garden crops were mostaffected, forcing the local hospital to buy imported fruitsand vegetables. On Pohnpei, serious losses of both foodand cash crops were sustained, with significant stressevident in more than half the banana trees, and significantlosses in the kava (sakau) crops (Hamnett, Anderson andGuard, 2000).

The greatest percentage of the most productive agriculturalland on these islands is located in low-lying coastal areasthat are at risk from climate-related changes in sea level. Inaddition to problems associated with inundation, saltwaterintrusion caused by sea-level rise would also presentchallenges unless salt-tolerant species could be utilized.

Agriculture in the Pacific Islands is characterized byheterogeneity, which results from differences in localclimatic, soil and hydrologic conditions, and from varia-tions in the mix of subsistence and cash crops. Interislanddifferences can be seen in:

• the cultural context for agriculture;

• economic and market conditions such as proximity tomarkets and the availability of transportation;

• the relationship of agriculture to other relevant sectors,such as water and energy; and,

• the institutions that set and implement agriculturalpolicy, as well as those that support research anddevelop and disseminate information such as weatherand climate forecasts.

This heterogeneity highlights the importance of researchand assessment that focuses on local conditions, institu-tions and cultures when considering climate-related

vulnerabilities in agriculture, including thedevelopment of response options. This reportprovides some regional insights and generalguidelines that could be useful in pursuing suchlocal efforts. For example, the Ahupua‘a ResourceManagement System (ARMS) described earlier inthis chapter represents a place-based approach thatintegrates local variability in climate and resources.

Findings and RecommendationsTwo categories of vulnerability were identified forthe agricultural sector; the first includes vulner-abilities related to the physical environment,including climate-related risks, and the secondincludes social, political and institutional practices.As is the case with all activities addressed in theAssessment, the most critical of these risks areextreme events that can have severe impacts onlocal and regional agricultural production.

Droughts, for example, can reduce yields, with specificimpacts dependent on characteristics such as duration andtiming. Storms can affect agriculturein a number of ways, including crop damage from highwinds and/or flooding, as well as degradation of soil qualityand crop damage from sea-water inundation caused bystorm surge. Natural climate variability, even when it is notmanifested in the form of extreme events, poses a variety ofchallenges to the agricultural sector. Most notable isvariation in the timing and amount of rainfall available forcrop production. Agriculture on Pacific Islands is alsoaffected by a number of pests (plant, animal, fungal andmicrobial) that can have a range of effects on crop produc-tion and are particularly important in areas with little cropdiversity. Table 3.4 summarizes some of the effects ofclimate on Pacific Island agricultural systems.

Finally, agriculture must compete with a number of otheruses for limited fresh-water resources. In their August 2000decision on the Wai‘ahole Ditch case, for example, theHawai‘i Supreme Court used the Public Trust Doctrine tooutline a hierarchy of uses for water distribution duringshortages. Maintenance of trust resources, including publichealth, safety and cultural practices, was held to beparamount, with private sector interests such as agriculturebearing the burden of proof that their uses would not causeirreparable harm to the trust. Like pests, fresh-waterresources themselves are affected by climate variability andchange.

Island governments and citizens are encouraged to developmore resilient agricultural systems that are less susceptibleto damage from storms, drought and salt-water contamina-tion. Specific actions in this context include planting of

15

A traditional staple food in the Pacific Islands, taro (kalo) is often grown in coastal plotsthat are susceptible to climate-related problems such as saltwater contamination. Possiblesolutions to this vulnerability include elevating plots and developing salt-resistant varieties.

traditional famine foods and food-banking crops used asfamine foods; introduction of drought- and salt-resistantcrops; development of emergency preparedness and disastermanagement plans that minimize disruptions to agricul-tural production; and shifting away from monoculture togreater diversity in crop production. Conversion of forestland to mono-crop agriculture and pasture, and shifts inlow-lying areas to mono-crops such as sakau (kava), wereidentified as examples of current trends that may beincreasing the vulnerability of Pacific Island agriculture toclimate variability and change. More diverse agriculturalsystems would provide an important buffer againstdisasters, and increase economic resilience in the face ofmajor disruptions to single crops. As a result, diversifica-tion was advocated as a general strategy to make agricul-tural systems less vulnerable. Traditional practices such asthe Ahupua‘a Resource Management System can provideinsights into approaches that use diversification to enhanceindividual communities’ self-sufficiency and resilience toclimate variability and change. This is because the ARMSapproach encourages development of agriculture that is inconcert with the soils and climate within “micro-regions”as small as individual valleys on single islands.

Addressing climate variability and change in the context ofcomprehensive emergency management plans could reducethe effects of extreme events on Pacific Island agriculture.For example, the new drought mitigation and responseplan in Hawai‘i may make agriculture and ranching in thestate less vulnerable to droughts— so encouragement wasgiven throughout the Assessment to consideration ofsimilar plans and programs in other island jurisdictions.

Adaptations to the problem of saltwater contamination oftaro patches already have been developed in some areas,

and these techniques should be shared; theyinclude construction of elevated (aboveground) taro patches made of coral rubble orconcrete and filled with soil and compost;shifts on some islands to dry-land taro; andplanting drought- and salt-resistant varietiesof taro.

In the second category of agriculturalvulnerabilities (social, political and institu-tional practices), one of the most criticalissues is a significant information gapbetween those who produce informationabout climate risks and those who use (orcould use) that information to makedecisions in the agricultural sector. It wasnoted that scientists, governments, businessesand community leaders could narrow this

information gap by enhancing awareness of availableclimate information; by improving the scientificcommunity’s understanding of decision-makers’ informa-tion needs; by improving the usefulness and usability ofclimate information that addresses specific needs; byestablishing and sustaining enhanced trust and credibilityin forecasts, assessments and other information products;and by providing sufficient resources to support bothscience and a sustained dialogue between scientists anddecision-makers.

Participants in the Pacific Assessment also repeatedly andstrongly encouraged the development, provision and use ofimproved climate information, and highlighted twoexamples of institutions working to reduce the informationgap. One was the PEAC, whose work during the 1997–1998 El Niño was described in Chapter 2. The second wasLand Grant Colleges in the Pacific Islands, which helpgovernments and farmers minimize the effects of extremeevents and recover more quickly from natural disasters. Anexample of this assistance from the Land Grant Colleges istheir cultivation of disease-resistant varieties of crops andtissue cultures, used to produce planting materials follow-ing a disaster; continuation and enhancement of suchefforts was encouraged.

Also noted is the frequent mismatch between the timescaleof climate events and that of political and individualdecision-making. The need for policymakers to respondquickly to current problems can make it difficult to engagethem in discussions of potential future problems, such asclimate change. It was noted that there is a problematictendency toward reactive decision-making instead ofproactive planning, and that long-term, strategic ap-proaches to problems of climate variability and change

16

9 The potential value of the concept of meninkairoir to reducing vulnerability to climate variability and change was initially offered by SalvatoreIriarte (FSM) during discussions of climate and agriculture at the March 1998 Workshop on the Consequences of Climate Variability andChange for Hawai‘i and the Pacific.

should be developed. The Carolinian word“meninkairoir”9— which means “looking ahead” or “takingthe long view”— captures the essence of this managementstrategy, which considers the long-term sustainability ofagriculture and provides greater flexibility to respond toextreme events and potential surprises in the climate system.

Land use management policies and practices were identifiedas another contributor to vulnerability in Pacific Islandagriculture. There is tension between the need for govern-ment regulation of land use to minimize potential climate-related threats, and the prerogatives of individual propertyrights and traditional land tenure systems. In some cases,climate-related threats, particularly those associated withextreme events, may require regulation of land use practices.An over-exploitation of limited land resources and degrada-tion of terrestrial and coastal ecosystems could be associatedwith the trend toward increased commercialization ofagriculture and globalization of agricultural industries, forexample. These conditions can increase the vulnerability ofPacific Island communities to the risks of climate variabilityand extreme events. Addressing increasing erosion problemsmay require changes in land use policies. Also needed areenhanced policies and procedures to stop the introductionof alien invasive species, so as to reduce the threat to nativeecosystems and agricultural systems— a threat that mayincrease following extreme events and other disturbances,when invasive species often have a competitive advantage.

Another institutional aspect of reducing the climate-relatedvulnerability of Pacific Island agriculture involves the needfor greater cooperation across levels of government andamong various interests. Given the multi-scale nature ofagriculture (from global markets to individual producers andconsumers) and the multi-scale nature of climate phenomena(from global processes to local effects), coordination acrossdifferent levels of government (from international to local) isnecessary. Greater coordination would minimize inconsis-tency in decision-making at different government levels,which sometimes results in issuance of conflicting incentives.An example is a national farm policy that provides incentivesfor local farmers to grow crops that are inappropriate giventhe constraints on that area’s water resources. Similarly,coordination among different agencies and interests wouldfacilitate understanding of the links between different issues,such as hydrological processes and soil quality; this in turnwould lead to more consistent decision-making (e.g., waterand energy policies that are consistent with agriculturalpolicies and vice-versa).

Sustaining Tourism

Tourism remains a significant contributor to the econo-mies of Hawai‘i, Guam and the CNMI, and is consideredto offer economic growth potential for most of thejurisdictions addressed in the Assessment. Uniqueterrestrial and marine ecosystems are among the naturalassets that draw tourists to the islands of the Pacific.These natural assets are already under stress from pollu-tion and the growing demands of an increasingly coastalpopulation. Sea-level rise associated with climate changecould exacerbate those stresses in a number of ways: byreducing the extent and quality of sandy beaches throughboth inundation and storm-surge erosion; by inundatinglow-lying areas and threatening key infrastructure,including airports and roads; by increasing the risks oftropical storm damage (particularly damage associatedwith storm surge); and by threatening coastal watersupplies through intrusion of salt water into the fresh-water lenses of small, low-lying islands.

Other climate-related changes of concern to tourism

Beautiful beaches and weather are among the Pacific Islandcharacteristics that drive tourism, yet both are already subject to stressfrom pollution and growing coastal populations. Climate changecould generate additional risks for the industry by causing sea-levelrise and compromising fresh-water supplies.

17

Irrigation for golf courses and resorts is one among the many demands tourismplaces upon limited fresh-water resources in the Pacific Islands; growingpopulations, agriculture and processing industries are other elements that mustbe balanced in the complex task of water management.

include:

• changes in rainfall patterns, particularly those thatmight bring more frequent and/or severe droughtconditions, thus affecting the adequacy of waterresources that support this water-intensive sector;

• changes in tropical storm patterns, which would havedirect consequences for facilities and infrastructure andcould exacerbate water-resource problems in certainareas;

• changes in temperature and rainfall patterns withattendant consequences for terrestrial as well as coastaland marine ecosystems; and,

• changes in ocean temperature, circulation and produc-tivity, which could affect important marine resourceslike coral reefs and the fish they support.

Findings and RecommendationsDuring the November 2000 Workshop, the tourismworking group introduced its report to the closing plenarywith the following statement: “Tourism is an extremelyclimate sensitive industry and should provide leadership tothe larger community through its response to climatevariability and change.” Examples of the sensitivity oftourism to climate, cited throughout the Assessment,include:

• the effects of ENSO-related drought on the availabilityof water for hotels and resorts, which often are locatedon the leeward (dry) side of islands;

• the vulnerability of the industry to hurricanes andtyphoons, and the need for advance planning andpreparation to protect visitors, as well as facilities andinfrastructure; and,

• the dependence of the industry on marine and coastalresources like coral reefs, which in themselves are

climate-sensitive.

According to industry representatives, these examplesillustrate how climate variability and change affect thefoundation of a sustainable travel and tourism industry:ensuring safe, healthy conditions for visitors andproviding adequate infrastructure to support their needs.

It was noted that the consequences of climate change fortourism could be both negative and positive. Forexample, increased intensity or persistence of El Niñoconditions could lead to prolonged drought in manyislands with adverse consequences for tourism. Climate-related changes in environmental conditions at alterna-tive destinations could increase the number of visitorsinterested in traveling to Pacific Islands. Changes inclimate-sensitive resources like coral reefs, fisheries andtropical forests could jeopardize the tourism business.

A change in sea level poses risks for transportation infra-structure like airports and roads, as well as hotels, restau-rants and other facilities in coastal areas.

It was recognized that, to understand the vulnerability oftourism to climate variability and change, there should bediscussions about response options as well as climateimpacts. In this context, they noted that significant increasesin the cost of diesel and airline fuels, which might arise aspart of a global strategy to mitigate climate change, couldreduce the number of visitors who choose to travel to PacificIslands; nevertheless, they agreed that this possibility shouldnot be used as an excuse to avoid consideration of importantmitigation measures.

In the past, extreme events have galvanized public will andgovernment and corporate action to reduce the sensitivity oftourism to climatic conditions. In Guam, for example, thelosses associated with a Class 5 typhoon in 1962 helped pavethe way for changes in building codes, for the imposition ofa 20% tax for development in low-lying coastal areas, andfor government subsidies and tax exemptions for developerswho choose to build inland. Today, new insights andcapabilities are generating opportunities to further reducetourism’s sensitivity to climate; we know more about therelationship between the ENSO cycle and extreme eventssuch as prolonged droughts or changes in hurricane andtyphoon tracks, and we are better able to predict ENSOevents months in advance. Taking advantage of suchadvances to reduce vulnerability to climate can also havenear-term benefits for the industry. Clyde Mark (then-employed as a risk manager by Outrigger Hotels, Hawai‘i)cited the experience of the general manager of an Outriggerproperty in Australia, who used advance information aboutclimate to anticipate and prepare for the conditions that

18

spawned a cyclone that caught other facilities unaware. Asa result, guests at the Outrigger hotel were well-informedand prepared for the event, and hotel management hadtime to ensure that power and water supplies were main-tained by acquiring additional generators and waterpurification systems (Mark, 2000, personal communica-tion).

Discussions of the vulnerability of tourism to climatevariability and change should take into account all stake-holders, including foreign and domestic visitors; employeesand labor unions; hoteliers and restauranteurs; transporta-tion operators (primarily planes and ships in the PacificIslands); activity owners and operators; government andindustry policymakers and planners (including agenciesresponsible for water, energy, transportation, communica-tions, sanitation, economic development and emergencymanagement); convention and visitors bureaus; chambersof commerce; tourism industry associations; developers andconstruction businesses; scientists; and the community atlarge. To make this process manageable, the Assessmentsuggests that discussions should be organized around threebasic systems: community infrastructure; natural resourcesand ecosystems; and governance systems.

In the area of community infrastructure, the recommendedfocus would be improving resilience to climate-relatedextreme events. For tourism, the overarching goal would beto improve the ability of Pacific Island communities toadapt to the ENSO and other aspects of year-to-yearclimate variability, and to integrate considerations of climatechange into long-term facilities planning. The 1999 FSMNational Communication to the United Nations Frame-work Convention on Climate Change notes that “thetourism sector can place significant demands on waterresources and supporting infrastructure” (FSM, 1999). Ofparticular interest to tourism would be reducingclimate-related vulnerability in water resources,sanitation, public health and safety, transportation,energy, communications, visitor accommodations, andsports and recreational activities.

It was recognized that the tourism industry depends onthe health of the islands’ natural resources, most notablytheir coral reefs, forest ecosystems and beaches. TheFSM 1999 National Communication notes that “manytourism opportunities involve capitalizing on marineand coastal resources and, therefore, are likely to placedemands on coastal areas and infrastructure alreadyunder pressure” (FSM, 1999). The industry, therefore,has a responsibility to consider the effects of climatevariability and change not only on its own businesses,but also on the natural systems that sustain it. Detailed

discussions of the vulnerability of these systems areprovided later in this chapter. As noted earlier, however,these critical natural resources are already being subjectedto a number of stresses, and businesses and governmentagencies that support travel and tourism should collabo-rate in development and implementation of effectivemeasures to reduce those stresses.

With respect to governance systems, discussions of climateand tourism focused on four key areas:

• facilities siting decisions;

• facilities design and construction;

• land management policies; and,

• emergency management/disaster preparedness.

Proactive, anticipatory approaches were universallyencouraged, echoing calls for win-win or “no regrets”policies in the discussions of adaptation to climate change.One specific example often cited was reducing the risksassociated with sea-level rise through proper planning fornew facilities and infrastructure. Also encouraged wereconsiderations of alternative approaches to infrastructureplanning and governance, including the use of economicinstruments (such as tax exemptions and subsidies) andinnovative business-government partnerships as well asregulatory measures.

Discussions about governance also highlighted theimportance of recognizing local cultural considerations andtraditional approaches to land ownership, property rightsand resource management. The phrase “one size does notfit all” was echoed throughout the Assessment, cautioningus to recall that what works in one island jurisdictionmight not be appropriate in another. Similarly, theimportance of incorporating traditional land ownershipand stewardship practices reinforces the need to involve

Like tourism, commercial agriculture in the Pacific, in this case pineapplecultivation in Hawai‘i, is among the economic activities most directlyaffected by climate variability and change.

19

Critical, low-lying infrastructure in the Pacific islands, like Weno Road in the FederatedStates of Micronesia, is particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels and relatedconsequences of climate change (photo by Joseph Konno).

local communities and indigenous peoples in discussionsof how governance might be changed to reduce thevulnerability of Pacific Islands to climate variability andchange.

The importance of improving climate information andcommunication systems was noted throughout discussionsof the climate/tourism nexus, and calls were made specifi-cally for:

• improved forecast and warning systems for extremeevents and other aspects of year-to-year climate variabil-ity;

• enhanced efforts to translate, interpret and disseminateinformation on climate variability and change in a formuseful to the tourism industry and government agenciescharged with infrastructure planning and support;

• baseline information on the consequences of currentpatterns of climate variability for the tourism industry;

• baseline information on critical resources and infra-structure from which to measure/monitor the effects ofclimate change over the long term;

• improved information on the specific regional and localimpacts of climate change projections; and,

• education and public outreach programs to enhancepublic awareness and participation.

Underlying all of these recommendations was a call formore dialogue and interaction among the communities,businesses and government agencies affected by theconsequences of climate variability and change for tourismin the Pacific Islands.

Promoting Wise Use of

Marine and Coastal Resources

Coral reef ecosystems are considered highly vulnerable tolong-term climate change. Yet, because they provideshoreline protection and habitat for important coastal andpelagic fish species, healthy reefs are important assets notonly for tourism and fishing industries but also forresidents of many islands. Unfortunately, significant coralbleaching events have been observed in association withrecent ENSO events, and there are suggestions that suchpatterns might continue or increase with increased oceantemperatures. Climate variability and change pose otherchallenges for coral reefs, including increased water depthcaused by sea-level rise, and the possibility of increased riskfrom tropical storms and hurricanes.

Changes in sea level present a number of challenges toisland coastal communities, ecosystems and facilities. Sea-level variations associated with El Niño events can causeincreased aerial exposure of coral reefs in some westernPacific jurisdictions, and flooding in low-lying areas towardthe central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The conse-quences of accelerated sea-level rise have been the focus ofmost climate-change assessment efforts; they includeincreased risk of shoreline erosion, inundation of low-lyingareas, damage from storm surge, and saltwater intrusionwith its effects on important coastal ecosystems likemangrove forests, fresh-water resources and low-lyingagricultural areas.

Also affected by climate variability and change are coastaland marine fisheries, which are integral to the culture andeconomies of many Pacific Islands. Numerous near-shoreand reef-dwelling fish species are important components of

the subsistence diet in small island communi-ties, and climate-related changes in the habitatsthat support these fisheries would have conse-quences for those communities.

Recent scientific studies have revealed animportant link between patterns of naturalclimate variability, such as the ENSO cycle, andthe migratory patterns of important pelagicspecies like tuna. Hamnett, Anderson andGuard (2000) for example, suggest that theeastward expansion of warm water in the Pacificduring an El Niño is associated with aneastward displacement of some commerciallyimportant tuna stocks such as skipjack. Formany of the Pacific Islands in this Assessment,development of a viable tuna industry isconsidered an important component of theireconomic future. For example, in the FSM, the

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tuna industry within its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)is currently the primary focus for economic developmentin the country; access and license fees from distant-waterfishing nations catching tuna in the EEZ are already asignificant source of revenue (FSM, 1999). Starkist Samoaand Samoa Packing are the largest private sector employ-ers in American Samoa, and are among the largest tunacanneries operating within U.S. territory (Hamnett andAnderson, 1999). Changes in the ENSO cycle or otherclimate-related changes in ocean circulation and produc-tivity could bring significant changes to the location oftuna stocks, thus providing opportunities for jurisdictionsthat find themselves close to commercially-importantstocks, and problems for jurisdictions that find themselvestoo far away.

Findings and RecommendationsThe effects of climate variability and change on PacificIsland marine and coastal resources can be categorized intwo ways— effects on human populations and effects onthe natural/biological resources upon which they depend.The most obvious effects on people are caused by extremeevents. Heavy rains, winds and waves associated withhurricanes and tropical cyclones, for example, can threatenpublic safety and damage homes, businesses and infrastruc-ture. Drought can reduce access to safe fresh-waterresources, with implications for public health. Saltwaterintrusion into fresh-water lenses, whether associated with

periodic events or long-term sea-level rise, can furtherjeopardize fresh-water resources, and saltwater inundationcan threaten low-lying agricultural crops. Storm surge andsea-level rise can exacerbate coastal erosion— which isalready significant in some areas— further endangeringcommunity infrastructure and homes. Human migrationsto escape these risks can present significant challenges forboth migrant populations and host communities; culturaldifferences and contrasting interpretations of traditionalproperty rights and land ownership are among the poten-tial difficulties.

Similarly, on islands where subsistence fishing is important,climate-induced changes in the productivity of marine andcoastal ecosystems could alter carrying capacities. Foodsecurity issues could be particularly troublesome if declinesin marine resources used for subsistence coincide withdeclines in agricultural productivity. And the economicviability of related industries such as mariculture could beaffected by climate-related alterations in marine and coastalenvironments.

Marine fisheries represent an important element of PacificIsland economies. The pelagic or highly migratory tunasand billfishes of the Pacific are the basis for an extremelyvaluable fishery. About 70% of the world’s tuna catchcomes from the Western Pacific, and changes in oceantemperature associated with El Niño can significantlychange the migratory patterns of commercially-importanttuna stocks. The access fees that fishing companies payPacific Island jurisdictions to fish in their EEZs oftenrepresent a significant portion of the country’s annualincome. Even when a fisheries sector comprises only asmall part of current GDP, as in the FSM, this sector isrecognized along with tourism and commercial agricultureas providing long-term growth potential (FSM, 1999).

Pacific Island coastal waters support subsistence andcommercial fisheries as well as valuable non-consumptiveactivities like recreational diving. Fish and other marineresources are important sources of protein for many PacificIslanders. These resources can be affected by changes inwater temperature and coral reef habitats, and by increasedsedimentation associated with storms, floods and coastalerosion caused by climate variability and change. Inaddition, coastal ecosystems often have unique andimportant ecological and cultural value. (see boxed text fora summary of climate-induced effects on coastal resources.)

Recent scientific research also suggests that changes inocean chemistry associated with increasing atmosphericconcentrations of CO

2 may be at least as important for

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITYAND CHANGE ON COASTAL ANDMARINE RESOURCES:

• Changes in intertidal environments and speciescomposition caused by sea-level rise

• Increased salinity in coastal estuaries caused by sea-level rise and periodic inundations from extreme events

• Changes in water quality in lagoons, with increasedpotential for red tides identified as a specific concern

• Changes in sea level, salinity and sediment loads (fromerosion) that can affect mangrove forests (although thenet effect of sea-level rise and climate change onmangroves is not well understood)

• Threats to seagrass beds from storm damage andincreased sedimentation

• Changes in temperature, salinity and sea level that canhave direct effects on coral reefs, which also aresusceptible to siltation associated with storms andcoastal erosion

• Changes in temperature and circulation in coastal andmarine waters, which can alter spawning and foraginghabitats for culturally and economically valuablespecies

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The dynamic nature of climate variability and change demands aflexible approach to coastal resource management that can addresslong-term trends such as sea-level rise, and accommodate year-to-yearchanges like those associated with El Niño.

coral reefs as projected changes in ocean temperature andsea level. As increasing amounts of CO

2 infiltrate seawater,

the carbonate saturation level of the water decreases.Preliminary findings suggest that increasing CO

2 levels

could change seawater carbon chemistry sufficiently toaffect the calcification rates, and hence growth, of coral andcoralline algae; this in turn would affect the production ofcarbonate detritus, the source of sand necessary for beachbuilding and shoreline maintenance.

In addition, insular marine ecosystems in the PacificIslands have a great number of endemic species that haveadapted to unique coastal conditions. Climate variabilityand change can alter the local environment and stress theseendemic species, creating opportunities for invasion byalien species. Similarly, threatened or endangered species incritical island habitats could be further stressed by climatechange. The endangered Hawaiian monk seal, for example,relies on unique nesting beaches and foraging habitats atthe northern end of the Hawaiian archipelago. The addedstresses of sea-level rise and storm-related impacts on theseareas could be sufficient to move the seal (and otherendangered species) closer to extinction. Marine ecosys-tems and species that are already heavily stressed due toover-harvesting or habitat alteration, for example, may beless resilient to climate variability and change. In this

context, protected marine areas might be a useful tool forreducing fishing stress and enhancing resilience.

Many ways were identified to enhance the resilience ofPacific Island communities and resources to the effects ofclimate variability and change. The first set of optionsfocuses on development of flexible resource managementapproaches that accommodate climate variations. Centralto these options is a commitment to routinely integrateinformation on climate variability and change intoplanning and regulatory regimes, as well as into resourceharvesting decisions. In addition to improving the flow ofinformation among scientists, governments, managers andbusinesses, this commitment requires sustained climate andecosystem monitoring programs, improved research onclimate/ecosystem interactions, and development of newmodeling and assessment tools (e.g., fisheries and ecosys-tem forecast systems).

Emphasis was given to the importance of planning forextreme events and climate variability rather than justchanges in mean conditions, and to evaluating projectionsof future conditions in the context of past events andhistorical data. Coastal managers encouraged the use ofclimate information, and identified some specific applica-tions, including: use of ENSO-based rainfall forecasts toestablish conditions for construction permits in areassubject to flooding and mudslides; incorporation of ENSOforecast information in decisions about the timing ofrestoration projects; integration of climate considerationsin design of habitat-monitoring programs; and integrationof climate information in growth-management plans.Island-specific case studies were recommended to helpaugment existing information on the consequences ofclimate variability and change. Also encouraged weretargeted pilot projects such as development of sea-level datasets and hazard assessment tools for coastal managers andcommunity planners. Finally, it was suggested thatscientists and decision-makers supplement global analysesand regional forecasts with data on local indicators ofchanging climate. The value of programs like PEAC wasacknowledged in the November 2000 Workshop, leadingto general support for expanding regional abilities todevelop and disseminate climate information.

Flexible resource management approaches require thedevelopment of policies that recognize that ecosystems aredynamic. Since climate variability and change produceconsiderable ecosystem change, management strategies thathandle variations in fishery yields while protectingspawning potential will be necessary. Flexible resourcemanagement policies should be able to accommodaterelocation of fishermen between fisheries, and respond

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rapidly to changes in resource abundance. In this context,a policy is encouraged that incorporates risk, or a precau-tionary approach that recognizes the possibility ofsurprises and sets harvests at conservative levels. Inaddition to responding to changing climate and ecosystemconditions, such a policy would also evolve in response tochanging social and cultural conditions.

Integrated resource management approaches can also beused to control risk when responding to the challenges ofclimate variability and change. For example, Kaluwin andSmith (1997) discuss integrated coastal zone management(ICZM) as a component of an effective response to theeffects of sea-level rise and climate change. According tothe Noordwijk Guidelines promulgated by the WorldBank, the purpose of ICZM is “to maximize the benefitsprovided by the coastal zone and to minimize the conflictsof harmful effects of activities upon one another.” Thissame document refers to ICZM as a “governmentalprocess” consisting of “the legal and institutional frame-work necessary to ensure that development and manage-ment plans for coastal zones are integrated with environ-mental (including social) goals and are made with theparticipation of those affected.” (World Bank, 1993)

It was agreed in the November 2000 Workshop that ICZMcould provide a valuable framework for climate adaptationin Pacific Islands. In addition, emphasis was placed on theidea that “all those affected” should participate in develop-ment of an ICZM process; these include resource manag-ers, government agencies, traditional knowledge sources,policymakers, community leaders, businesses, and scientistsfrom various disciplines. Collaborating to combine theinsights and interests of these parties was seen as essentialto development of any such integrated resource manage-ment approach. Participants in the Pacific Assessment alsoreiterated the suggestion by Kaluwin and Smith (1997)that the general concept of ICZM will require somemodification to accommodate the “Pacific Way.”Specifically, Kaluwin and Smith recommended aPacific ICZM approach that recognizes:

• a high level of community involvement in coastalresource use and management;

• a high level of subsistence economic activity basedon coastal resources and, therefore, an intimateinvolvement with the resource;

• strong customary land and marine tenure systems;

• Existence of strong indigenous cultures withtraditional (and widely accepted and appropriate)decision-making and management mechanisms fornatural resource management;

• cultures and communities that are closely attuned tothe concepts of family and community and the need

for sharing resources;

• a consensus approach to decision-making; and,

• customary resource management practices that arelargely of an integrated nature, not sectoral.

In this latter context, Hawai‘i’s traditional ahupua‘amanagement system was identified as an example of sucha customary management practice.

Reducing the risk of economic losses is another aspect ofresponding to the effects of climate on Pacific Islandmarine and coastal resources. It was suggested, forexample, that in responding to the effects of the ENSOcycle on important tuna stocks, island states mightconsider regional agreements that rely upon revenuesharing to reduce variation in income from fishing accessfees; this would assure that annual income for any oneEEZ would be better insulated from fluctuations infishing in that EEZ. Variation in resource abundancecould result in overcapitalization during periods of greatabundance, which should be avoided to minimizeeconomic and management difficulties during a decline.To reduce this and related risks, island states wereencouraged to reduce their dependence on single fisherysectors; corporations were encouraged to diversify theirareas of operation, and fishermen were encouraged todiversify their target species and fishing techniques. Alsosuggested was development of aquaculture, maricultureand enhancement techniques for wild stocks, although itwas recognized that these activities might also be affectedby climate variability and change.

It was recommended that effective policies and proceduresbe developed to control the introduction of alien species,thereby reducing the vulnerability of marine and coastalresources. This could include, for example, procedures to

Participants in the Assessment noted that the consequences of climate changefor the Pacific Islands could be both negative and positive— but in any caseshould be anticipated and addressed through collaborative planning andmitigation.

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evaluate introduction of species for trade or mariculture,and consideration of the possibility that climate changecan alter local environments, making it easier for exoticsto become established.

It was agreed that successful integration of climateinformation into routine decision-making will requiredevelopment of local cadres of knowledgeable individuals.Educational outreach was encouraged to increase thepublic’s awareness and understanding of the consequencesof climate variability and change and to increase theavailability of useful and usable climate information.Outreach efforts should be designed to provide climateinformation that is simple, unambiguous and culturallyappropriate; to expand the availability of climate curricula,particularly for K–12 classrooms; and to develop anddisseminate climate information tailored specifically fortarget audiences such as local planning bodies, governmentagencies, industry groups and communities.

Common Themes

In addition to the findings and recommendations aimed atreducing climate-related vulnerability in individual sectors,a number of common themes emerged from PacificAssessment discussions of the consequences of climate

variability and change.

For all activities, current patterns of climate variability(most notably ENSO events) already present significantchallenges for Pacific Island communities, and significantbenefits can accrue from enhancing capabilities to antici-pate and adapt to those events.

To respond effectively to climate variability and change, aninformation-intensive endeavor, there is a need for timely,useful and usable information derived from a continuingdialogue among scientists and decision-makers.

When thinking about climate-related vulnerability, it isimportant to consider the effects of climate on multiple,interacting sectors or activities, as well as within specificsectors or activities (e.g. the effects of climate change onfresh-water resources has implications for public health,agriculture, tourism and coastal resources). Effectiveresponses can only be developed after consideration of allthese interactions. In addition to considering interactionsamong sectors, there is a need to promote consistency inplanning and policy formulation at different levels ofgovernment, from local to regional, and with sponsoringor donor agencies outside the region.

In all topical areas addressed by the Pacific Assessment,

The health of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in the Pacific Basin is dependent to a large degree on climate. Continued research and collaborativeplanning will enhance the ability of Pacific Islanders to anticipate and respond to the effects of climate variability and change— and maintain thehealth of their ecosystems.

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participants highlighted the absence of reliable baselineinformation and the lack of island-specific vulnerabilitystudies. Addressing this gap was identified as a highpriority for continuing climate assessment activities in thePacific.

There is a need for more formal and informal education,training and public outreach to strengthen efforts toanticipate and respond to the consequences of climatevariability and change.

And finally, there is a need for proactive, forward-lookingapproaches to responding to climate variability andchange— precautionary approaches that allow greaterflexibility in response and reduce the adverse effects ofsurprises, as well as the costs of responding. This approachwas characterized earlier in this Chapter by the Carolinianword “meninkairoir,” which means “taking the long view.”

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