chapter no 6 man power planning in labour economics
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter # 6
Manpower Planning
Prepared By
Kokab Manzoor1
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Outlines
Definition of Manpower planning
Need for Manpower planning
Overview of HR planning Process
Forecast demand for labor
Factors determining Demand for Labor
Forecast supply labor
Factors determining Supply for Labor
Managing shortage/surplus of labor
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Introduction
Manpower Planning which is also called as Human
Resource Planning has now been recognized as an
important part of overall planning of any organization.
Without procurement and adequate number of
personnel it is not possible to realize the goals of an
organization.
Human Resource Planning has got an important placein the arena of industrialization.
Human Resource Planning
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Human Resource Planning (HRP)
Definition HRP is process including forecasting,
developing and controlling by which a firm
ensures that it has the right number of people,
right kind of people at the right place, at the
right places at the right time doing work for
which they are economically more useful.
(by E. Geisler)
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Need of Manpower Planning
Manpower Planning is a two-phased process because
manpower planning not only analyses the current
human resources but also makes manpower forecasts
and thereby draw employment programs.
Manpower Planning is advantageous to firm in
following manner:
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1. Shortages and surpluses can be identified so thatquick action can be taken wherever required.
2. All the recruitment and selection programs are
based on manpower planning.3. It also helps to reduce the labor cost as excess staff
can be identified and thereby overstaffing can be
avoided
Need of Manpower Planning
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4 It also helps to identify the available talents in a
concern and accordingly training programs can bechalked out to develop those talents.
5 It helps in growth and diversification of business.
Through manpower planning, human resources canbe readily available and they can be utilized in best
manner.
6 It helps the organization to realize the importance of
manpower management which ultimately helps in the
stability of a concern.
Need of Manpower Planning
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Overview of the Human Resource Planning
Process
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Human Resource Forecasting
HR Forecasting attempts todetermine the supply and
demand for various types of
human resources, and to
predict areas within theorganization where there
will be labor shortages or
surpluses.
There are three majorsteps to forecasting:
1. Forecasting the demand
for labor2. Determining labor supply
3. Determining labor
surpluses and shortages
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HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING
FORECASTING HR REQUIREMENTS (DEMAND ANALYSIS)
(Trying to predict future staffing needs)Managerial Estimates
Sales Projections
Vacancy Analysis (projected turnover)
FORECASTING HR AVAILABILITY (SUPPLY ANALYSIS)
(Predicting worker flows and availabilities)
Succession or Replacement Charts
Skills Inventories (use of HRIS)Transition Matrix (Markov analysis )
Personnel Ratios10
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Forecasting the Demand for Labor
Trend Analysis Constructing and applying statistical models that predict
labor demand for the next year, given relatively objective
statistics from the previous year.
Leading Indicators
Objective measures that accurately predict future labor
demand. E.g. Projections
Vacancy analysis etc11
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VACANCY ANALYSISHistoric departures used to project turnover
LEVEL # EMPL TURN % Expected Vacancies Expected to Remain
TOP MGMT 100 20 % 20 80
MID MGMT 200 24 % 48 152
LOW MGMT 600 22 % 132 468
SKILLED W 600 16% 96 504
ASSY WKRS 2000 12 % 240 1760
TOTALS 3500 536 2964
AVERAGE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE = 536 / 3500 = 0.15 or 15%
Forecasting the Demand for Labor
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D t i i L b S l
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Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
following are the techniques an organization can use to
estimate the supply of labor;
1 Succession or Replacement Charts
Who has been groomed/developed and is ready for promotionright NOW?
2 Human Resource Information Systems (HRIS)
An employee database that can be searched when
vacancies occur.14
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Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
3 Transition Matrices (Markov Analysis)A chart that lists job categories held in one period and shows the
proportion of employees in each of those job categories in a
future period.
It answers two questions:
1. Where did people in each job category go?
2. Where did people now in each job category come from?
4 Personnel / Yield RatiosHow much work will it take to recruit one new accountant?
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D t i i L b S l
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1 SUCCESSION PLANNING
REPLACEMENT CHARTFOR EXECUTIVE POSITIONS
POSITION REPLACEMENT CARDSFOR EACH INDIVIDUAL POSITION
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POSITION WESTERN DIVISION SALES MANAGER
DANIEL BEALER Western Division Sales Mgr Outstanding Ready Now
Present Promotion
Possible Candidates Current Position Performance Potential
SHARON GREEN W/Oregon Sales Manager Outstanding Ready Now
GEORGE WEI N. California Sales Manager Outstanding Needs Training
HARRY SHOW Utah Sales Manager Satisfactory Needs Training
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Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
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2 HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION
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2 HUMAN RESOURCE INFORMATION
SYSTEMS (HRIS)
PERSONAL DATA
Age, Gender, Dependents, Marital status, etc
EDUCATION & SKILLS
Degrees earned, Licenses, Certifications
Languages spoken, Specialty skills
Ability/knowledge to operate specific machines/equipment/software
JOB HISTORY
Job Titles held, Location in Company, Time in each position, etc.
Performance appraisals, Promotions received, Training & Development
MEMBERSHIPS & ACHIEVEMENTS
Professional Associations, Recognition and Notable accomplishments
PREFERENCES & INTERESTSCareer goals, Types of positions sought, Geographic preferences
CAPACITY FOR GROWTH
Potential for advancement, upward mobility and growth in the company 17
D t i i L b S l
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3 Transition Matrix (Markov Analysis)
Example for an Auto Parts Manufacturer
Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
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MARKOV ANALYSIS
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MARKOV ANALYSIS(Captures effects of internal transfers)
(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
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END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 240* 368 tot
NEED LAYOFFS ? (10)* (10) tot
KEEP STABLE 100 200 600 600 2000 = 3500 Tot19
MARKOV ANALYSIS
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MARKOV ANALYSIS(Anticipates Changes in Employment Levels)
Employment needs are changing. We need a 10% increase in skilled workers (660),
and a 15% decrease in assembly workers (1700) by years end.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -(Start = 3500) A TRANSITION MATRIX
FROM/ TO: TOP MID LOW SKILLED ASSY EXIT
TOP 100 .80 .02 .18
MID 200 .10 .76 .04 .10
LOW 600 .06 .78 .01 .15
SKILL 600 .01 .84 .15
ASSY 2000 .05 .88 .07
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END YR WITH: 100 190 482 610 1760 [358 left]
NEED RECRUITS ? 0 10 118 50*
NEED LAYOFFS ? (60)*
NEW LEVELS 100 200 600 600 1700 = 3260 tot
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Determining Labor Supply
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Determining Labor SupplyPredicting Worker Flows and Availabilities
4 PERSONNEL / YIELD RATIOS
Past experience has developed these yield ratios for recruiting a CostAccountant:
for every 12 applications received, only 1 looks promising enough toinvite for an interview
of every 5 persons interviewed, only 1 is actually offered a position in
the organization of every 3 job offers made, only 2 accept the position
of every 10 new workers who begin the training program, only 9successfully complete the program
Thus: 100 applications must be received, so that
8.33 job interviews can be held, so that
1.67 job offers can be made, and
1.11 people must be trained, so that we get
one new cost accountant!!!21
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Problems in HRP
Resistance by employer
Resistance by employee
Resistance by trade unions Inadequate information system
Uncertainties
Integration with organizational Plans
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